Property Portfolio Overview As of January 1 2010
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Property Portfolio Overview as of January 1 2010 June 8 2010 Executive summary Total net sellable area(1) decreased by approximately 22% to 11.59MM square meters (14.89MM as of April 1 2009), of which 96% is represented by residential area; Total landbank decreased by 3.3MM sqm since last appraisal date due to contracted presales, divested non-core projects and partially abandoned projects; 13% decrease in market portfolio value to US$2.48bn (April 1 2009: US$2.86bn) due to changes in the following assumptions: – postponed launches of perspective projects, especially in Russia‟s regions (by two and more years); – conservative assumptions applied towards upward trend in selling prices and construction costs in subsequent periods (these are dependent upon underlying average oil price assumptions derived from forecasts of leading investment banks and agencies); – remaining incumbencies on existing projects, where apartments have been already presold; Market portfolio value per square meter increased to US$214 (April 1 2009: US$192). Discount rate on projects remained flattish (20% on average for properties in the course of development vs. 21% YoY; 27% on average for properties held for future development vs. 26% YoY), while at the same time Russian risk free rate significantly contracted over the period and CB rate also declined by 5.25ppt down to 7.75% YTD; Operational horizon at around 5 years in Moscow and Moscow region remains appropriate and safe. (1) unsold area 2 Portfolio overview 3 Landbank highlights as of January 1 2010 NSA (PIK Project portfolio summary (as Unsold area, Market value, share), Project portfolio split by geography of Jan 01 2010) '000 sqm US$MM '000 sqm Properties completed and partially 53 17 18 By Unsold area By Market Value sold Moscow Other Properties in the course of 6,383 3,793 1,511 regions development Other regions 12% 13% Properties planned for future 7,784 7,784 951 development Moscow Total PIK Group Portfolio as of 51% Region 55% 14,220 11,594 2,480 37% 32% Jan 01 2010 Moscow Note: Based on current land bank; assuming no additional land acquisitions going forward, excluding potential construction services Region Moscow Total: 11 594 (‘000 sqm) Total: $2 480 MM Source: CBRE Portfolio dynamic over time by geography (market Portfolio dynamic over time value per sqm, US$) 3 215 16 14.9MM sqm 1 200 1 829 14.2MM sqm -22% $1,000/sqm 14 1 000 $865/sqm 11.6MM sqm 12 800 10 $865/sqm 8.8MM sqm 1 024 942 971 8 $2.9bn 600 886 $8.8bn $12.3bn $2.9bn $2.5bn 6 $8.8bn $12.3bn 400 473 (MM sqm) (MM 4 $8.8bn $192/sqm$214/sqm 200 303 2 223 $192/sqm 186 0 0 56 53 Jan 01 2007 Jan 01 2008 Apr 01 2009 Jan 01 2010 Jan 01 2007 Jan 01 2008 Apr 01 2009 Jan 01 2010 Land bank (MM sqm) Market value per sqm Moscow Moscow region Other regions Source: CBRE Source: CBRE 4 CBRE valuation highlights Valuation Report as of April 01 2009 Valuation Report as of January 01 2010 RUB exchange rate: 33.9032 RUB/USD RUB exchange rate: 30.1851 RUB/USD Price growth estimates: Price growth estimates Price growth estimates: Price growth estimates 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014+ 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014+ Moscow 0% 6.4% 10.9% 9.2% 0% Moscow 0% 0% 10% 8% 3% 0% Moscow Region 0% 4.2% 10.8% 9.9% 0% Moscow Region 0% 0% 9% 7% 2% 0% Rostov Region 0% 0.6% 10.5% 9.8% 0% Rostov Region 0% 0% 14% 12% 5% 0% Kaliningrad Region 0% 3.0% 9.0% 8.1% 0% Kaliningrad Region 0% 0% 14% 12% 5% 0% Kaluga Region 0% 5.9% 11.3% 8.2% 0% Kaluga Region 0% 0% 10% 8% 5% 0% Krasnodar Area 0% 7.0% 8.9% 7.5% 0% Krasnodar Area 0% 0% 10% 7% 4% 0% Omsk Region 0% 2.3% 8.3% 6.5% 0% Omsk Region 0% 0% 12% 10% 3% 0% Permsky Area 0% 8.7% 9.2% 7.4% 0% Permsky Area 0% 0% 12% 7% 3% 0% St. Petersburg 0% 5.0% 11.2% 10.2% 0% St. Petersburg 0% 0% 15% 12% 4% 0% Udmurt Republic 0% 6.3% 8.9% 6.4% 0% Yaroslavl Region 0% 0% 12% 8% 1% 0% Nizhny Novgorod Region 0% 6.3% 9.4% 6.5% 0% Yaroslavl Region 0% 13.3% 8.9% 6.2% 0% Construction cost growth estimates: Construction cost growth estimates: Construction cost growth estimates Construction cost growth estimates 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014+ 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014+ Moscow 0% 4.2% 7.2% 6.1% 0% Moscow 0% 0% 8% 6% 1% 0% Moscow Region 0% 3.0% 7.6% 7.0% 0% Moscow Region 0% 0% 7% 5% 0% 0% Rostov Region 0% 0.0% 7.0% 6.4% 0% Rostov Region 0% 0% 11% 9% 2% 0% Kaliningrad Region 0% 2.5% 7.5% 6.8% 0% Kaluga Region 0% 3.8% 7.3% 5.3% 0% Kaliningrad Region 0% 0% 10% 8% 1% 0% Krasnodar Area 0% 5.2% 6.6% 5.6% 0% Kaluga Region 0% 0% 6% 4% 1% 0% Omsk Region 0% 1.9% 6.8% 5.3% 0% Krasnodar Area 0% 0% 7% 4% 1% 0% Permsky Area 0% 7.1% 7.6% 5.8% 0% Omsk Region 0% 0% 10% 8% 1% 0% St. Petersburg 0% 2.0% 8.1% 7.1% 0% Permsky Area 0% 0% 8% 4% 1% 0% Udmurt Republic 0% 4.2% 5.9% 4.2% 0% St. Petersburg 0% 0% 10% 8% 0% 0% Nizhny Novgorod Region 0% 5.5% 8.2% 5.7% 0% Yaroslavl Region 0% 0% 10% 6% 0% 0% Yaroslavl Region 0% 11.3% 7.6% 5.2% 0% Estimates of the financing terms for the properties construction: Estimates of the financing terms for the properties construction: – 70% debt (18% interest during, 14% after construction) – 60% debt (14% interest during, 12% after construction) – 30% equity – 40% equity Discount rate: Discount rate: – Average rate of 26% for properties held for future development (range 14-35%); – Average rate of 27% for properties held for future development (range 18-35%); – Average rate of 21% for properties in the course of development (range 12-35%). – Average rate of 20% for properties in the course of development (range 14-30%). Based upon sensitivity analysis conducted by CB Richard Ellis: - 1% decrease in the discount rate leads to an increase in portfolio value by 4.4%; - 2% decrease in the discount rate leads to an increase in portfolio value by 9.1%. Source: CBRE, Company data 5 Adjustments in project portfolio Unsold area, ‘000 sqm Total as of April 01 2009 14,894 (1) Non-core projects divested • Marine façade: 261 (1.8% of total) • North-Western Towers: 113 (0.8% of total) to settle debt: • Others: 10 (0.1% of total) 14,510 Adjusted by proportion of rights obtained (actually paid) Proportion, % Omsk, Rokossovskogo str. 40% 1,419 (9.6% of total) Projects considered to Yaroslavl, Dzerzhinskiy District 40% 167 (1.2% of total) partially abandon: Yaroslavl, Frunzenskiy District (Sokol) 40% 402 (2.7% of total) Nizhny Novgorod, Geroya Shnitnikova str 20% 190 (1.3% of total) Adjusted by proportion of rights retained after co-investment Rostov-on-Don, Schepkinskoe Field 50% 265 (1.8% of total) 12,067 Sqm sold: • 492 (3.3% of total)(2) 11,575 Others attributed to cumulative NSA changes • 19 (0.1% of total) in projects portfolio: Total as of January 01 2010 11,594 Note: (1) as % of total project portfolio as of April 1 2009 (2) audited IFRS results, Note 8 Source: CBRE, Company data 6 Top 15 projects account for 79% of value and 33% of unsold NSA Est. NSA, Unsold Market Market PIK share, Rating Project Phase Type Location completion ‘000 area, value, value, ‘000 sqm date sqm ‘000 sqm US$MM US$/ sqm Mitnaya, 13 (English High-end 70 48 357 1 (1) active construction Moscow 1Q2012 99 7,370 Town) Residential (1Q2012) (70) (63) (338) (5,326) Mass Market Moscow 1,134 650 311 2 (2) Khimki, Novokurkino active construction 4Q2014 1,135 478 Residential Region (4Q2014) (1,151) (680) (326) (480) 2Q2019 Mytischi, Yaroslavsky Mass Market Moscow 868 726 190 262 3 (4) active construction (1Q2019) 1,197 District Residential Region (788) (729) (166) (228) High-end 252 252 184 4 (3) Mantulinskaya 7 predevelopment Residential Moscow 4Q2021 252 729 (4Q2017) (260) (260) (172) (662) /Commercial Kommunarka, Leninsky Mass Market Moscow 1,023 1,023 158 5 (5) predevelopment, 1Q2027 1,055 155 Region Residential Region (4Q2020) (1,023) (1,023) (155) (152) High-end 4Q2017 165 163 150 6 (7) Moscow, Kuntsevo to be reactived Moscow 167 922 Residential (4Q2014) (165) (163) (112) (691) Khimki, Sovkhoznaya Mass Market Moscow 334 318 104 7 (13) active construction 4Q2016 411 328 str. Residential Region (4Q2013) (334) (334) (64) (193) Michurinsky pr-t., High-end Moscow 65 65 95 8 (12) predevelopment 4Q2013 65 1,464 district 5-6 Residential (1Q2012) (62) (62) (72) (1,169) Mass Market 139 139 82 9 (11) Perovskaya str., 66 predevelopment Moscow 1Q2016 139 589 Residential (2Q2015) (139) (139) (73) (523) High-end Kutuzovsky prospekt, 101 101 81 10 (10) predevelopment Residential, Moscow 2Q2017 101 799 14А (Park-City) (4Q2015) (101) (101) (76) (747) Commercial Marshala Zakharova str., Mass Market 68 68 51 11 (21) predevelopment Moscow 3Q2014 68 749 own.7 Residential (4Q2013) (78) (78) (33) (419) Varshavskoye highway, Mass Market 115 115 49 12 (27) predevelopment Moscow 4Q2019 115 426 own.141 Residential (3Q2015) (106) (106) (21) (194) Mass Market 43 43 48 13 (18) Mironovskaya str., 46 predevelopment Moscow 2Q2013 43 1,119 Residential (4Q2012) (43) (43) (40) (927) Ak.