Section 5.4.6: Risk Assessment – Severe Storm
5.4.6 Severe Weather 7KH IROORZLQJ VHFWLRQ SURYLGHV WKH KD]DUG SURILOH KD]DUG GHVFULSWLRQ ORFDWLRQ H[WHQW SUHYLRXV RFFXUUHQFHV DQG ORVVHV SUREDELOLW\ RI IXWXUH RFFXUUHQFHV DQG LPSDFW RI FOLPDWH FKDQJH DQG YXOQHUDELOLW\ DVVHVVPHQW IRU WKH VHYHUH ZHDWKHU KD]DUG LQ 'XWFKHVV &RXQW\
3URILOH +D]DUG 'HVFULSWLRQ )RU WKH SXUSRVH RI WKLV +03 DQG DV GHHPHG DSSURSULDWHG E\ WKH 'XWFKHVV &RXQW\ 6WHHULQJ DQG 3ODQQLQJ &RPPLWWHHV WKH VHYHUH VWRUP KD]DUG LQFOXGHV KDLO KLJK ZLQGV WKXQGHUVWRUPV DQG WRUQDGRHV ZKLFK DUH GHILQHG EHORZ
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
+LJK :LQGV +LJK ZLQGV RWKHU WKDQ WRUQDGRHV DUH H[SHULHQFHG LQ DOO SDUWV RI WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV $UHDV WKDW H[SHULHQFH WKH KLJKHVW ZLQG VSHHGV DUH FRDVWDO UHJLRQV IURP 7H[DV WR 0DLQH DQG WKH $ODVNDQ FRDVW KRZHYHU H[SRVHG PRXQWDLQ DUHDV H[SHULHQFH ZLQGV DW OHDVW DV KLJK DV WKRVH DORQJ WKH FRDVW )(0$ 5RELQVRQ :LQG EHJLQV ZLWK GLIIHUHQFHV LQ DLU SUHVVXUHV ,W LV URXJK KRUL]RQWDO PRYHPHQW RI DLU FDXVHG E\ XQHYHQ KHDWLQJ RI WKH HDUWK¶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
Table 5.4.6-1. 1:6:LQG'HVFULSWLRQV
SustainedWindSpeed Descriptive Term (mph) 6WURQJ GDQJHURXV RU GDPDJLQJ 9HU\ :LQG\ :LQG\ %UHH]\ EULVN RU EOXVWHU\ 1RQH RU /LJKW RU OLJKW DQG YDULDEOH ZLQG Source: NWS 2010 mph miles per hour
DMA 2000 Hazard Mitigation Plan – Dutchess County, New York 5.4.6-1 December 2015 Section 5.4.6: Risk Assessment – Severe Storm
7RUQDGRHV 7RUQDGRHV DUH QDWXUH¶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
/LJKWLQJ LV D EULJKW IODVK RI HOHFWULFDO HQHUJ\ SURGXFHG E\ D WKXQGHUVWRUP 7KH UHVXOWLQJ FODS RI WKXQGHU LV WKH UHVXOW RI D VKRFN ZDYH FUHDWHG E\ WKH UDSLG KHDWLQJ DQG FRROLQJ RI WKH DLU LQ WKH OLJKWQLQJ FKDQQHO $OO WKXQGHUVWRUPV SURGXFH OLJKWQLQJ DQG DUH YHU\ GDQJHURXV ,W UDQNV DV RQH RI WKH WRS ZHDWKHU NLOOHUV LQ WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV DQG NLOOV DSSUR[LPDWHO\ SHRSOH DQG LQMXUHV KXQGUHGV HDFK \HDU /LJKWQLQJ FDQ RFFXU DQ\ZKHUH WKHUH LV D WKXQGHUVWRUP
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
/RFDWLRQ
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azard Mitigation Plan – Dutchess County, New York 5.4.6-2 December 2015 Section 5.4.6: Risk Assessment – Severe Storm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able 5.4.6-2. 1:6:LQG'HVFULSWLRQV SustainedWindSpeed Descriptive Term (mph) 6WURQJ GDQJHURXV RU GDPDJLQJ 9HU\ :LQG\ :LQG\ %UHH]\ EULVN RU EOXVWHU\ 1RQH RU /LJKW RU OLJKW DQG YDULDEOH ZLQG Source: NWS 2010 mph miles per hour 7KH 1:6 LVVXHV DGYLVRULHV DQG ZDUQLQJV IRU ZLQGV ,VVXDQFH LV QRUPDOO\ VLWHVSHFLILF +LJK ZLQG DGYLVRULHV ZDWFKHV DQG ZDUQLQJV DUH SURGXFWV LVVXHG E\ WKH 1:6 ZKHQ ZLQG VSHHGV PD\ SRVH D KD]DUG RU LV OLIH WKUHDWHQLQJ 7KH FULWHULRQ IRU HDFK RI WKHVH YDULHV IURP VWDWH WR VWDWH :LQG ZDUQLQJV DQG DGYLVRULHV IRU 1HZ x +LJK :LQG :DUQLQJV DUH LVVXHG ZKHQ VXVWDLQHG ZLQG VSHHGV RI PSK RU JUHDWHU ODVWLQJ IRU RQH KRXU RU ORQJHU RU IRU ZLQGV RI PSK RU JUHDWHU IRU DQ\ GXUDWLRQ RU ZLGHVSUHDG GDPDJH DUH SRVVLEOH x :LQG $GYLVRULHV DUH LVVXHV ZKHQ VXVWDLQHG ZLQGV RI WR PSK DUH IRUHFDVW IRU RQH KRXU RU ORQJHU RU ZLQG JXVWV RI WR PSK IRU DQ\ GXUDWLRQ 1:6 DMA 2000 Hazard Mitigation Plan – Dutchess County, New York 5.4.6-3 December 2015 Section 5.4.6: Risk Assessment – Severe Storm 7RUQDGRHV 7KH PDJQLWXGH RU VHYHULW\ RI D WRUQDGR ZDV RULJLQDOO\ FDWHJRUL]HG XVLQJ WKH )XMLWD 6FDOH )6FDOH RU 3HDUVRQ )XMLWD 6FDOH LQWURGXFHG LQ 7KLV XVHG WR EH WKH VWDQGDUG PHDVXUHPHQW IRU UDWLQJ WKH VWUHQJWK RI D WRUQDGR 7KH )6FDOH FDWHJRUL]HG WRUQDGRHV E\ LQWHQVLW\ DQG DUHD DQG ZDV GLYLGHG LQWR VL[ FDWHJRULHV ) JDOH WR ) LQFUHGLEOH 7DEOH H[SODLQV HDFK RI WKH VL[ )6FDOH FDWHJRULHV Table 5.4.6-3. )XMLWD 'DPDJH 6FDOH Scale Wind Estimate (mph) Typical Damage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ource: Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Date Unknown mph miles per hour 7KH (QKDQFHG )XMLWD 6FDOH ()6FDOH LV QRZ WKH VWDQGDUG XVHG WR PHDVXUH WKH VWUHQJWK RI D WRUQDGR ,W LV XVHG WR DVVLJQ WRUQDGRHV D µUDWLQJ¶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able 5.4.6-4. (QKDQFHG )XMLWD 'DPDJH 6FDOH Wind EF-Scale Intensity Speed Number Phrase (mph) Type of Damage Done /LJKW /LJKW GDPDJH 3HHOV VXUIDFH RII VRPH URRIV VRPH GDPDJH WR JXWWHUV RU VLGLQJ () ± WRUQDGR EUDQFKHV EURNHQ RII WUHHV VKDOORZURRWHG WUHHV SXVKHG RYHU 0RGHUDWH 0RGHUDWH GDPDJH 5RRIV VHYHUHO\ VWULSSHG PRELOH KRPHV RYHUWXUQHG RU EDGO\ () WRUQDGR GDPDJHG ORVV RI H[WHULRU GRRUV ZLQGRZV DQG RWKHU JODVV EURNHQ &RQVLGHUDEOH GDPDJH 5RRIV WRUQ RII ZHOOFRQVWUXFWHG KRXVHV IRXQGDWLRQV RI 6LJQLILFDQW () IUDPH KRPHV VKLIWHG PRELOH KRPHV FRPSOHWHO\ GHVWUR\HG ODUJH WUHHV VQDSSHG RU WRUQDGR XSURRWHG OLJKWREMHFW PLVVLOHV JHQHUDWHG FDUV OLIWHG RII JURXQG DMA 2000 Hazard Mitigation Plan – Dutchess County, New York 5.4.6-4 December 2015 Section 5.4.6: Risk Assessment – Severe Storm Wind EF-Scale Intensity Speed Number Phrase (mph) Type of Damage Done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ource: SPC Date Unknown EF-Scale Enhanced Fujita Scale mph miles per hour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x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x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x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azard Mitigation Plan – Dutchess County, New York 5.4.6-5 December 2015 Section 5.4.6: Risk Assessment – Severe Storm VL]HV DQG RQO\ WKH YHU\ ODUJHVW KDLO VWRQHV SRVH VHULRXV ULVN WR SHRSOH ZKHQ H[SRVHG 7DEOH VKRZV WKH GLIIHUHQW VL]HV RI KDLO DQG WKH FRPSDULVRQ WR UHDOZRUOG REMHFWV Table 5.4.6-5. +DLO 6L]H Size Inches in Diameter 3HD LQFK 0DUEOHPRWKEDOO LQFK 'LPH3HQQ\ LQFK 1LFNHO LQFK 4XDUWHU LQFK 3LQJ3RQJ %DOO LQFKHV *ROI %DOO LQFKHV 7HQQLV %DOO LQFKHV %DVHEDOO LQFKHV 7HD &XS LQFKHV *UDSHIUXLW LQFKHV 6RIWEDOO LQFKHV Source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azard Mitigation Plan – Dutchess County, New York 5.4.6-6 December 2015 Section 5.4.6: Risk Assessment – Severe Storm Table 5.4.6-6. Severe Storm Events in Dutchess County, 1990 to 2015 FEMA Declaration County Dates of Event Event Type Number Designated? Losses / Impacts Severe thunderstorms produced tornadoes in Cortland County and in northern and central Dutchess County. In Dutchess County, a fairly large tornado cut a swatch of destruction over 20 miles long and 75 yards wide through northern and central parts of the County. The tornado began in the Town of Poughkeepsie and ended in the Tornado Town of Northeast. It destroyed thousands of trees and downed hundreds of power July 31, 1992 N/A N/A (F1) lines. There was also damage to homes and barns. The hardest hit areas in the County were Salt Point Turnpike in the Town of Poughkeepsie, West and Whiteford Roads in Pleasant Valley, and the Valley Farm and Stanford Road in the Town of Washington. The County had approximately $2.5 million in property damage from this event. Severe thunderstorms impacted eastern New York State with some of the hardest hit Thunderstorms and areas located in Dutchess County. The County had downed trees, power lines and May 11, 1993 N/A N/A Wind utility poles that left over 3,000 customers without power. Property damage in the County was estimated at $10,000. Severe thunderstorms damaged parts of eastern New York State. In the Township Thunderstorms and of Poughkeepsie and Hopewell Junction in Dutchess County, the storms downed August 1, 1994 N/A N/A Wind numerous trees and powerlines and caused extensive damage to a golf course. The County had approximately $50,000 in property damage. Severe thunderstorms brought heavy rain and flash flooding to Dutchess County. Thunderstorms and July 26, 1995 N/A N/A The Stony Creek in the Village of Tivoli overflowed its banks and caused flooding. Flash Flood Property damages in the County from this event was approximately $50,000. Unseasonably warm temperatures resulted in the rapid melting of one to three feet of snow. In addition to the snow melt, one to three inches of rain fell, resulting in widespread flooding across Dutchess County. Small streams flooded and many roads were washed out. Extensive flooding occurred along the Hudson River and Wappingers Creek. In the higher elevations, there were numerous road washouts. In the Town of Pawling, 50% of the roads in the town were washed out. In the January 19-30, Severe Storms and Towns of North East and Amenia, widespread and severe damage also occurred. In DR-1095 Yes 1996 Flooding the Town of East Fishkill, an ice jam occurred on Fishkill Creek in Hopewell Junction, which caused the gaging station to reach a maximum height of 11.71 feet. On January 27th, strong winds blew across eastern New York State, downing trees, limbs and power lines across the area. Southern Dutchess County saw some of the worst damage with over 6,000 customers without power. Overall, there was $160 million in damages in New York State, of which, $7 million of damages in Dutchess County. Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding impacted Dutchess and Ulster Counties. Severe Thunderstorms The storms downed trees and wires and brought large hail across several locations June 30, 1998 N/A N/A and Flash Flooding in the counties. Torrential rains from the storms produced flash flooding across Ulster and southern Dutchess County. In Dutchess County, there were several DMA 2000 Hazard Mitigation Plan – Dutchess County, New York 5.4.6-7 December 2015 Section 5.4.6: Risk Assessment – Severe Storm FEMA Declaration County Dates of Event Event Type Number Designated? Losses / Impacts flooded basements in the Village of Wappingers Falls and they had to be pumped out. There was also flooding of roadways in Hopewell Junction (Town of East Fishkill) and Wingdale (Town of Dover). The County had approximately $12,000 in property damages from this event. Heavy rain and an ice jam in Dutchess County resulted in Wassaic Creek January 18-19, Heavy Rain, Flooding overflowing its banks and flooding County Route 81 in the Town of Amenia. N/A N/A 1999 and Ice Jam Several homes were evacuated in this area due to the flooding. The County had approximately $10,000 in property damages. The remnants of Hurricane Floyd moved up the east coast of the United States; it brought high winds and heavy rain to eastern New York State. Rainfall totals ranged from three to six inches. Some areas received up to a foot of rain. The rain produced widespread flooding across the region, leading to severe damage and one September 16- Remnants of DR-1296 Yes fatality (in Dutchess County). Significant flooding was noted on many smaller 17, 1999 Hurricane Floyd tributaries including the Esopus, Catskill and Schoharie Creeks. Wind gusts from Floyd ranged from 49 mph to over 60 mph. The rain and strong winds produced massive power outages. Damages to Dutchess County were approximately $1 million. This was the largest outbreak of severe weather across eastern New York State in nearly two years. This system brought a series of thunderstorms and strong winds. In addition to the thunderstorms, there were two confirmed tornadoes in the area as well. The winds from the thunderstorms downed large trees and power lines in Albany, Columbia, Greene, Montgomery, Saratoga, Schoharie, and Ulster Counties. Dutchess County was especially hit hard. A series of microbursts entered Dutchess County, moving over the southern portion of Hyde Park and the Poughkeepsie Yacht Club in the northern part of the Town. Tornado This microburst overturned several boats and a trailer was overturned. The roof was May 18, 2000 N/A N/A (F0) blown off the Yacht Club. A F0 tornado touched down in the Fairview section of the Town of Poughkeepsie. Damage from the tornado was marginal and was confined to downed trees and some minor structural damage to several homes. Wind from the thunderstorms damaged other portions of Dutchess County. There was another microburst that produced damage between County Route 83, east of the Village of Leedsville. This event also downed trees and even uprooted trees in Clinton Corners. Powerlines were knocked down in Rhinebeck. Utility poles were knocked down in the Village of Fishkill. Overall, the County had over $1 million in property damage from this series of events. Widespread and heavy rainfall impacted eastern New York State, bringing a two- day rain total of over 11 inches in some parts of the area (Ulster County). The July 14-17, 2000 Severe Storms DR-1335 Yes excessive rain resulted in flooding and flash flooding. Overall, New York State had $35 million in property damage as a result of this storm series. Between July 14th DMA 2000 Hazard Mitigation Plan – Dutchess County, New York 5.4.6-8 December 2015 Section 5.4.6: Risk Assessment – Severe Storm FEMA Declaration County Dates of Event Event Type Number Designated? Losses / Impacts and 17th, Dutchess County's rainfall totals ranged from 1.1 inches in Clinton Corners (Town of Clinton) to 1.61 inches in the Town of Red Hook. A record breaking rainstorm struck eastern New York State with rainfall totals December 17, Heavy Rain and ranging between two and four inches with some locally higher amounts. Nearly N/A N/A 2000 Flooding four inches of rain fell in Dutchess County, causing over $100,000 in property damage. This was identified as the largest widespread severe event in eastern New York State in exactly four years. A line of thunderstorms first entered Herkimer County. The first of two tornadoes (F1) briefly touched down in Fulton County. The tornado damaged an old movie theater and threw debris up to a third of a mile away. The line of storms moved east and brought minor to moderate wind damage in Albany, Washington, Warren, Saratoga, Schenectady, Schoharie, Columbia, Montgomery, Tornado May 31, 2002 N/A N/A and Rensselaer Counties. (F1) In Dutchess County, there were downed trees and wires countywide. A car was crushed by a tree near Poughkeepsie. The second tornado touched down at Whaley Lake in southeast Dutchess County. It had wind speeds of around 75 mph. Damage from the tornado was mainly confined to downed and twisted trees. Dime size hail fell at Salt Point. The County had approximately $67,000 in property damage. Thunderstorms moved over the Hudson Valley of eastern New York State, with some becoming sever. Most of the reports showed hail damage; however, there were two confirmed tornado touchdowns as well as one non-tornadic destructive Tornado June 16, 2002 N/A N/A wind report. The first tornado touched down in Montgomery County. The second (F1) tornado had wind speeds around 100 mph and touched down near Pawling in Dutchess County. Damage from this event was mostly confined to downed and twisted trees. Damages in Dutchess County were approximately $20,000. A line of thunderstorms developed over eastern New York State during the early morning. A cell broke loose from the line and spawned a tornado across the Town of Fishkill in Dutchess County. The length was just over one mile and the width September 28, Tornado N/A N/A ranged between 25 and 100 yards. Most of the damage was to trees and some 2003 (F1) power lines were knocked down. A transformer blew and debris shattered a window of a home. This event caused approximately $10,000 in damages to the County. Strong winds across eastern New York State downed trees and power lines. In Dutchess County, the Towns of Poughkeepsie, Millbrook, Hyde Park, Fishkill and October 15, 2003 Strong Winds N/A N/A East Fishkill reported a concentrated area of downed trees. One tree fell onto a car in Poughkeepsie. Power lines were also knocked down in the County. This storm caused approximately $10,000 in damages in Dutchess County. May 13th – a cold front moving through New York State brought a line of strong to May 13 – June Severe Storms and DR-1534 Yes severe thunderstorms in the eastern part of the State. Numerous roadside culverts 17, 2004 Flooding were washed out, and roads were closed due to heavy amounts of rain that fell in a DMA 2000 Hazard Mitigation Plan – Dutchess County, New York 5.4.6-9 December 2015 Section 5.4.6: Risk Assessment – Severe Storm FEMA Declaration County Dates of Event Event Type Number Designated? Losses / Impacts short period of time. In Dutchess and Columbia Counties, there were several reports of hail and downed trees and power lines. June 9th – a series of strong to locally severe thunderstorms brought damage to numerous counties in eastern New York State. Most of the damage were downed trees and power lines which led to power outages. Two rain events in October brought a total of one to two feet of rain across eastern New York State. The first event occurred October 7th and 8th which was due to the remnants of Tropical Storm Tammy. The second event occurred from October 12th Heavy Rain and October 2005 N/A N/A through 14th. The worst flooding in New York State occurred in Dutchess County. Flooding The first event in Dutchess County caused the Wappingers Creek to crest at 8.33 feet. The second event caused the Wappingers Creek to crest at 11.16 feet at the Village of Wappingers Falls. Heavy rains caused flooding of the Ten Mile River which affected the Towns of Heavy Rain and October 19, 2005 N/A N/A Dover, Pawling, and Beekman. There was also flooding in the Town of Milan. Flooding This event resulted in $500,000 in property damage in Dutchess County. Tornado A tornado was reported at Lagrangeville. It was on the ground between 15 and 30 June 25, 2006 N/A N/A (F1) seconds traveling half a mile and cutting a path 150 yards wide. An intense coastal storm brought heavy precipitation across the lower Hudson Valley of New York State. At first, the precipitation fell as wet snow, sleet and rain and then changed to all rain. Precipitation totals ranged from three to eight inches and led to widespread flooding across the lower and mid-Hudson Valley region. In Dutchess County, small streams and creeks flooded throughout the County. Record Severe Storms and April 16-18, flooding occurred on the Wappingers Creek at Wappingers Falls which crested at Inland and Coastal DR-1692 Yes 2007 7.06 feet above its flood stage of eight feet. Moderate flooding was recorded along Flooding Tenmile River at Webatuck which crested at 11.23 feet. The flooding led to numerous road closures which included large stretches of the Taconic State Parkway in both directions. Additionally, numerous home foundations collapsed near Stormville (Town of East Fishkill). The County had approximately $5.7 million in damages. Strong gusty winds in Dutchess County led to downed trees and power lines in several municipalities. In the Town of East Fishkill, a tree downed wires on Route October 7, 2009 Strong Wind N/A N/A 52 and the Taconic State Parkway. In the Town of Red Hook, a tree downed wires on Kelly Road. In Wappingers Falls, a tree fell onto a care at Route 9 and Alpine Drive. The County had approximately $13,000 in property damage from this event. As Hurricane Irene moved north along the Atlantic coast, it weakened and made its second landfall as a Tropical Storm near Little Egg Inlet along the southeast New August 26 – Jersey coast. The storm made its third landfall in New York City on August 28th. September 5, Hurricane Irene DR-4020 Yes This storm brought sustained winds, heavy rain, destructive storm surge and two 2011 confirmed tornadoes. Heavy rainfall resulted in widespread moderate flooding across the area. Seven deaths resulted from Irene. At least 600,000 people were DMA 2000 Hazard Mitigation Plan – Dutchess County, New York 5.4.6-10 December 2015 Section 5.4.6: Risk Assessment – Severe Storm FEMA Declaration County Dates of Event Event Type Number Designated? Losses / Impacts ordered to evacuate their homes from storm surge and inland flooding. Widespread power outages of up to one week followed the storm. The strong winds from Irene pushed a three to five foot storm surge of water along western Long Island South, New York Harbor, the southern and eastern bays of Long Island, and southern bays of New York City. This resulted in moderate to major coastal flooding, wave damage and erosion along the coast, with heavy damage to public beaches and other public and private facilities. In Dutchess County, flash flooding was reported in several locations. Numerous roads and bridges were closed or damaged due to flooding and downed trees. There were mandatory evacuations in the County as well. Record flooding was recorded on the Hudson River at Poughkeepsie and major flooding occurred on the Hoosic River at Eagle Bridge, Hudson River at Troy and on Wappingers Creek at Wappingers Falls. Moderate flooding was reported on Tenmile River at Webatuck (Town of Amenia) and minor flooding on the Hudson River at Waterford. Flooding occurred in the Town of Rhinebeck along Route 9G. Power outages in Dutchess County impacted 25,000 customers. Hurricane Sandy moved up the east coast of the United States during the last week of October 2012. As the storm made landfall in southern New Jersey, bands of rain moved across eastern New York State. Rainfall totals in this part of the State were minimal and did not cause any flooding. The storm did bring strong and gusty winds to the area, bringing down trees and power lines across the region. Wind gusts ranged from 40 to 60 mph. October 27 – DR-4085 / EM- In Dutchess County, wind speeds reached 47 mph. Flooding in Dutchess County November 8, Hurricane Sandy No / Yes 3351 occurred along the Hudson River throughout the County. In Lake Carmel (Town of 2012 Kent), Route 292 was closed due to downed trees and wires between Bundy Hills Road and Sanita Road. There were numerous debris lines along the Poughkeepsie Waterfront on the Hudson River due to tidal flooding. Record flooding occurred on the Hudson River at Poughkeepsie as the River reached 9.54 feet. The surge of water moved all the way to the City of Albany. Water reached the deck of the Icehouse Restaurant (City of Poughkeepsie). Two to four feet of water reached inside the restaurant, based on water marks. Heavy rain and thunderstorms developed in the region of Dutchess County. The heavy rainfall led to significant runoff which caused flash flooding in some areas. Thunderstorms and Many roads were closed due to flooding and some homes were impacted by June 25, 2014 N/A N/A Lightning flooding as well. A few of the storms produced strong winds and damaging lightning strikes. In Dutchess County, lightning struck a home in the Town of Rhinebeck which caused a fire. There was approximately $5,000 in damages. DMA 2000 Hazard Mitigation Plan – Dutchess County, New York 5.4.6-11 December 2015 Section 5.4.6: Risk Assessment – Severe Storm FEMA Declaration County Dates of Event Event Type Number Designated? Losses / Impacts Thunderstorms produced damaging winds and large hail in the region of Dutchess Thunderstorms and July 23, 2014 N/A N/A County. In Wiccopee (Town of East Fishkill), a house was struck by lightning and Lightning caught fire, causing $25,000 in property damage. Source(s): FEMA 2015; NOAA-NCDC 2015; NWS 2015; NYS HMP 2014 FEMA Federal Emergency Management Agency HMP Hazard Mitigation Plan NCDC National Climatic Data Center NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NWS National Weather Service NYS New York State DMA 2000 Hazard Mitigation Plan – Dutchess County, New York 5.4.6-12 December 2015 Section 5.4.6: Risk Assessment – Severe Storm 3UREDELOLW\ RI )XWXUH 2FFXUUHQFHV 3UHGLFWLQJ IXWXUH VHYHUH VWRUP HYHQWV LQ D FRQVWDQWO\ FKDQJLQJ FOLPDWH KDV SURYHQ WR EH D GLIILFXOW WDVN 3UHGLFWLQJ H[WUHPHV LQ 1HZ Table 5.4.6-7. Probability of Occurrence of Severe Storm Events Number of Occurrences Between Hazard Type 1950 and 2015 Probability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µIUHTXHQW¶ OLNHO\ WR RFFXU PRUH WKDQ RQFH HYHU\ \HDUV DV SUHVHQWHG LQ 7DEOH &OLPDWH &KDQJH ,PSDFWV &OLPDWH FKDQJH LV EHJLQQLQJ WR DIIHFW ERWK SHRSOH DQG UHVRXUFHV LQ 1HZ (DFK UHJLRQ LQ 1HZ 7HPSHUDWXUHV LQ 1HZ DMA 2000 Hazard Mitigation Plan – Dutchess County, New York 5.4.6-13 December 2015 Section 5.4.6: Risk Assessment – Severe Storm by the 2020s, 4.1° F to 6.8° F by the 2050s, and 5.3° F to 10.1° F by the 2080s. By the end of the century, the greatest warming is projected to be in the northern section of the State (NYSERDA 2014). Regional precipitation across New York State is projected to increase by approximately one to eight-percent by the 2020s, three to 12-percent by the 2050s, and four to 15-percent by the 2080s. By the end of the century, the greatest increases in precipitation are projected to be in the northern areas of the State (NYSERDA 2014). In Region 5, it is estimated that temperatures will increase by 3.5ºF to 7.1ºF by the 2050s and 4.1ºF to 11.4ºF by the 2080s (baseline of 47.6ºF). Precipitation totals will increase between 2 and 15% by the 2050s and 3 to 17% by the 2080s (baseline of 38.6 inches). Table 5.4.6-8 displays the projected seasonal precipitation change for the East Hudson and Mohawk River Valleys ClimAID Region (NYSERDA 2011). Table 5.4.6-8. Projected Seasonal Precipitation Change in Region 5, 2050s (% change) Winter Spring Summer Fall 5 to +15 -5 to +10 -5 to +5 -5 to +10 Source: NYSERDA 2011 The projected increase in precipitation is expected to fall in heavy downpours and less in light rains. The increase in heavy downpours has the potential to affect drinking water; heighten the risk of riverine flooding; flood key rail lines, roadways and transportation hugs; and increase delays and hazards related to extreme weather events (NYSERDA 2011). Less frequent rainfall during the summer months may impact the ability of water supply systems. Increasing water temperatures in rivers and streams will affect aquatic health and reduce the capacity of streams to assimilate effluent wastewater treatment plants (NYSERDA 2011). Figure 5.4.6-1 displays the project rainfall and frequency of extreme storms in New York State. The amount of rain fall in a 100-year event is projected to increase, while the number of years between such storms (return period) is projected to decrease. Rainstorms will become more severe and more frequent (NYSERDA 2011). Figure 5.4.6-1. Projected Rainfall and Frequency of Extreme Storms Source: NYSERDA 2011 DMA 2000 Hazard Mitigation Plan – Dutchess County, New York 5.4.6-14 December 2015 Section 5.4.6: Risk Assessment – Severe Storm 5.4.6.2 Vulnerability Assessment 7R XQGHUVWDQG ULVN D FRPPXQLW\ PXVW HYDOXDWH ZKDW DVVHWV DUH H[SRVHG RU YXOQHUDEOH LQ WKH LGHQWLILHG KD]DUG DUHD )RU WKH VHYHUH ZHDWKHU KD]DUG DOO RI 'XWFKHVV &RXQW\ LV H[SRVHG DQG YXOQHUDEOH 7KHUHIRUH DOO DVVHWV LQ WKH &RXQW\ SRSXODWLRQ VWUXFWXUHV FULWLFDO IDFLOLWLHV DQG OLIHOLQHV DV GHVFULEHG LQ 6HFWLRQ &RXQW\ 3URILOH DUH H[SRVHG DQG SRWHQWLDOO\ YXOQHUDEOH 7KH IROORZLQJ WH[W HYDOXDWHV DQG HVWLPDWHV WKH SRWHQWLDO LPSDFW RI VHYHUH ZHDWKHUV RQ WKH &RXQW\ LQFOXGLQJ x 2YHUYLHZ RI YXOQHUDELOLW\ x 'DWD DQG PHWKRGRORJ\ XVHG IRU WKH HYDOXDWLRQ x ,PSDFW RQ OLIH KHDOWK DQG VDIHW\ RI UHVLGHQWV JHQHUDO EXLOGLQJ VWRFN FULWLFDO IDFLOLWLHV HFRQRP\ DQG IXWXUH JURZWK DQG GHYHORSPHQW x (IIHFW RI FOLPDWH FKDQJH RQ YXOQHUDELOLW\ x &KDQJH RI YXOQHUDELOLW\ DV FRPSDUHG WR WKDW SUHVHQWHG LQ WKH 'XWFKHVV &RXQW\ +D]DUG 0LWLJDWLRQ 3ODQ DQG (DVWHUQ 'XWFKHVV $OO+D]DUG 0LWLJDWLRQ 3ODQ x )XUWKHU GDWD FROOHFWLRQV WKDW ZLOO DVVLVW XQGHUVWDQGLQJ WKLV KD]DUG RYHU WLPH Overview of Vulnerability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ata and Methodology 7KH 86 &HQVXV SRSXODWLRQ DQG JHQHUDO EXLOGLQJ VWRFN GDWD ZHUH XVHG WR VXSSRUW DQ HYDOXDWLRQ RI DVVHWV H[SRVHG WR WKLV KD]DUG DQG WKH SRWHQWLDO LPSDFWV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK WKLV KD]DUG 5HIHU WR 6HFWLRQ &RDVWDO +D]DUGV IRU DGGLWLRQDO LQIRUPDWLRQ RQ WKH PHWKRGRORJ\ SHUWDLQLQJ WR WKH ZLQG DQG VWRUP VXUJH LPSDFWV Impact on Life, Health and Safety )RU WKH SXUSRVHV RI WKLV +03 WKH HQWLUH SRSXODWLRQ RI 'XWFKHVV &RXQW\ SHRSOH LV H[SRVHG WR VHYHUH VWRUP HYHQWV 86 &HQVXV 5HVLGHQWV PD\ EH GLVSODFHG RU UHTXLUH WHPSRUDU\ WR ORQJWHUP VKHOWHULQJ GXH WR VHYHUH ZHDWKHU HYHQWV ,Q DGGLWLRQ GRZQHG WUHHV GDPDJHG EXLOGLQJV DQG GHEULV FDUULHG E\ KLJK ZLQGV FDQ OHDG WR LQMXU\ RU ORVV RI OLIH 6RFLDOO\ YXOQHUDEOH SRSXODWLRQV DUH PRVW VXVFHSWLEOH EDVHG RQ D QXPEHU RI IDFWRUV DMA 2000 Hazard Mitigation Plan – Dutchess County, New York 5.4.6-15 December 2015 Section 5.4.6: Risk Assessment – Severe Storm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¶V YXOQHUDELOLW\ Impact on General Building Stock 'DPDJH WR EXLOGLQJV LV GHSHQGHQW XSRQ VHYHUDO IDFWRUV LQFOXGLQJ ZLQG VSHHG DQG GXUDWLRQ DQG EXLOGLQJ FRQVWUXFWLRQ 5HIHU WR 6HFWLRQ &RDVWDO +D]DUGV IRU D SUHVHQWDWLRQ RQ SRWHQWLDO ZLQG ORVVHV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK DQG \HDU PHDQ UHWXUQ SHULRG HYHQWV 'DPDJH ZLOO UHVXOW IURP KDLO VWRQHV WKHPVHOYHV DQG ZLOO KDYH D VSHFLILF LPSDFW RQ URRIV 7KH H[WHQW RI GDPDJH ZLOO GHSHQG RQ WKH VL]H RI WKH KDLOVWRUP Impact on Critical Facilities 2YHUDOO DOO FULWLFDO IDFLOLWLHV DUH H[SRVHG WR WKH ZLQG KD]DUG DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK VHYHUH VWRUPV 5HIHU WR 6HFWLRQ &RDVWDO +D]DUGV IRU D SUHVHQWDWLRQ RQ HVWLPDWHG LPSDFWV WR FULWLFDO IDFLOLWLHV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK DQG \HDU PHDQ UHWXUQ SHULRG HYHQWV Impact on Economy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ffect of Climate Change on Vulnerability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uture Growth and Development $V GLVFXVVHG LQ 6HFWLRQV DQG DUHDV WDUJHWHG IRU IXWXUH JURZWK DQG GHYHORSPHQW KDYH EHHQ LGHQWLILHG DFURVV WKH 3ODQQLQJ $UHD $Q\ DUHDV RI JURZWK FRXOG EH SRWHQWLDOO\ LPSDFWHG E\ WKH VHYHUH VWRUP KD]DUG EHFDXVH WKH HQWLUH SODQQLQJ DUHD LV H[SRVHG DQG YXOQHUDEOH 3OHDVH UHIHU WR WKH VSHFLILF DUHDV RI GHYHORSPHQW LQGLFDWHG LQ DMA 2000 Hazard Mitigation Plan – Dutchess County, New York 5.4.6-16 December 2015 Section 5.4.6: Risk Assessment – Severe Storm WDEXODU IRUP DQGRU RQ WKH KD]DUG PDSV LQFOXGHG LQ WKH MXULVGLFWLRQDO DQQH[HV LQ 9ROXPH ,, 6HFWLRQ RI WKLV SODQ Change of Vulnerability 2YHUDOO WKLV YXOQHUDELOLW\ DVVHVVPHQW XVLQJ D PRUH DFFXUDWH DQG XSGDWHG EXLOGLQJ LQYHQWRU\ ZKLFK SURYLGHV PRUH DFFXUDWH HVWLPDWHG H[SRVXUH DQG SRWHQWLDO ORVVHV IRU 'XWFKHVV &RXQW\ Additional Data and Next Steps 7KH FROOHFWLRQ RI DGGLWLRQDODFWXDO YDOXDWLRQ GDWD IRU JHQHUDO EXLOGLQJ VWRFN FULWLFDO LQIUDVWUXFWXUH DQG HFRQRPLF ORVVHV ZRXOG IXUWKHU VXSSRUW IXWXUH HVWLPDWHV RI SRWHQWLDO H[SRVXUH DQG GDPDJH IRU WKHVH LQYHQWRULHV DQG WKH HFRQRP\ DMA 2000 Hazard Mitigation Plan – Dutchess County, New York 5.4.6-17 December 2015