DOCSLIB.ORG

Texas Weather and Climate: Patterns, Trends, Events and Useful Resources

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Texas Weather and Climate: Patterns, Trends, Events and Useful Resources Texas Weather and Climate: Patterns, Trends, Events and Useful Resources National Weather Service Austin-San Antonio TX Paul Yura, Warning Coordination Meteorologist Who is the National Weather Service? Who13 is Forecast the National Offices Weather Service? 13 TX Offices 3 NWS River ForecastWho Offices is the National Weather Service?James Paul, ABRFC Service Coordination Hydrologist [email protected] Jeff Graschel, LMRFC Service Coordination Hydrologist [email protected] Greg Waller, WGRFC Service Coordination Hydrologist • Run river models • Forecast height/flow [email protected] RFCs provide hydrologic • Compile/estimate rainfall totals support to NWS forecast • Coordinate with water partners offices (USGS, USACE, IBWC) Forecasting the River Heights Minor - Minimal or no property damage - Possibly some public threat or inconvenience Moderate - Some inundation of structures/roads near streams - May need some evacuations of people /property Forecast Major Height - Extensive inundation of structures and roads - Likely evacuations of people / property Measured Height https://water.weather.gov/ahps/index.php Flood Wave Travel Times “County Warning Area” 33 Counties 7 Day Forecasts Watches/Warnings Decision Support to EMCs, Deployments to EOC Local Research/Outreach 36,000 mi2 NWS Mission: Protection of Life and Property It Takes Partner Relationships… Emergency Management Media (TV, Radio, Newspaper, Social Media) State/Fed agencies First responders Amateur radio General Public Texas has more flooding deaths than any other state Over half of the flood fatalities in Texas occurred while people were in their car. Stats will vary by location Data from NWS National Hazard Statistics Diverse Watershed Characteristics in Texas Snowpack - Water Supply Hill Country Hydrology - Flash Flood threats - Rapid River responses - Cycles of Flood/Drought River Basins of Texas Where and How the Water Flows Complex flow patterns Types of Flooding Ponding & Sheet Flow Flooding Flash Flooding River Flooding Coastal Flooding Flood Timeline Flash or Areal Before Event Onset Flood Flood Warning Flash Flood Advisory Emergency River Flood Warning Increasing Impact Potential ALL Situations Represent Threatening Conditions to Life and/or Property Note: Flooding can (and does) occur without a Flash Flood Watch! Its all about Location, Location, Location 30ft - 72 hrs Flash Flood • Topography River • Urbanization • Soil conditions Flood 30ft - 2 hrs ATXFloods.com Situational Awareness ATXFloods.com Never drive through flooded low water Bexarflood.org crossings! Remember: 6-12-24 Weather Patterns that Trigger Flash Flooding • Cell Mergers (storms combine) • Training (move over same area) • Stationary (storms don’t move) • Tropical System (efficient rain) • Stalled Weather System • Upstream Rain Events • Combination • Burn Scar Cell Mergers (storms combine) 2.58 inches in 15 minutes 6.13 inches in 1 hour 8.59 inches in 1.5 hours 9.46 inches in 2 hours 13.70 inches in 4 hours 15.31 inches in 5 hours 17.00 inches in 24 hours Training (move over same area) Multiple Rounds of Storms • “Train” over the area • Large rain totals • Storms are moving same direction as the upper level winds Stationary (storms don’t move) Several campsites washed away Tropical System (efficient rain) Hurricane Harvey 2017 • Historic rains 40+ inches • Once in a lifetime? Stalled Weather System Summer Low pressure system stalls 2002 over TX…sits for days Canyon Lake overflows Upstream Rain Events Don’t be fooled by good weather / little rain “Wimberley Event” 2015 Combination (Upstream, Training, Tropical, Mergers) The “98” Flood…30+ inches / 18 hrs Burn Scar Vegetation is lost Flash Floods / Mudslides / Landslides Have 3 Ways to Receive Weather Warnings Mass Notification Weather Apps Weather Radio Television Commercial Radio Social Media WEA Messages Originated by NWS Controls are in “Notifications” settings page (iphone) 360 characters, Spanish messages Weather.gov/wrn/wea NWS Mobile Device Webpage mobile.weather.gov Save the site on your home screen Thank You! [email protected].
Load more

Recommended publications
  • PRC.15.1.1 a Publication of AXA XL Risk Consulting
    Property Risk Consulting Guidelines PRC.15.1.1 A Publication of AXA XL Risk Consulting WINDSTORMS INTRODUCTION A variety of windstorms occur throughout the world on a frequent basis. Although most winds are related to exchanges of energy (heat) between different air masses, there are a number of weather mechanisms that are involved in wind generation. These depend on latitude, altitude, topography and other factors. The different mechanisms produce windstorms with various characteristics. Some affect wide geographical areas, while others are local in nature. Some storms produce cooling effects, whereas others rapidly increase the ambient temperatures in affected areas. Tropical cyclones born over the oceans, tornadoes in the mid-west and the Santa Ana winds of Southern California are examples of widely different windstorms. The following is a short description of some of the more prevalent wind phenomena. A glossary of terms associated with windstorms is provided in PRC.15.1.1.A. The Beaufort Wind Scale, the Saffir/Simpson Hurricane Scale, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology Cyclone Severity Scale and the Fugita Tornado Scale are also provided in PRC.15.1.1.A. Types Of Windstorms Local Windstorms A variety of wind conditions are brought about by local factors, some of which can generate relatively high wind conditions. While they do not have the extreme high winds of tropical cyclones and tornadoes, they can cause considerable property damage. Many of these local conditions tend to be seasonal. Cold weather storms along the East coast are known as Nor’easters or Northeasters. While their winds are usually less than hurricane velocity, they may create as much or more damage.
    [Show full text]
  • Lessons for Coastal Cities from Hurricane Sandy (PDF)
    NRDC: Preparing for Climate Change - Lessons for Coastal Cities from Hurricane Sandy (PDF) APRIL 2014 NRDC REPORT R:14-04-A Preparing for Climate Change: Lessons for Coastal Cities from Hurricane Sandy AUTHORS: Kim Knowlton, Dr.P.H. Miriam Rotkin-Ellman, M.P.H. Natural Resources Defense Council ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The authors would like to thank Zev Ross and Hollie Kitson of ZevRoss Spatial Analysis, Ithaca, New York, for conducting the mapping of areas in the five boroughs of New York City that were affected by unexpected flooding as a result of Hurricane Sandy in October–November 2012. We would also like to acknowledge the sustainable development project work of Barnard College students Carly Wertheim, Mariah Chen, Reeva Dua, Claudia Mack, Jenny Pensky, and Emilie Schattman (advised by professor Martin Stute), who, in the fall of 2013, developed a preliminary analysis of health and economic costs in areas unexpectedly flooded during Hurricane Sandy. Their work helped shape this issue brief. This work is an outgrowth of a panel presentation titled Climate Change & Public Health Policy Implications of Sandy, given by Kim Knowlton, Dr.P.H., at a Special Session of the 2013 American Public Health Association meeting in Boston. We are grateful to the following colleagues and external peer reviewers who provided invaluable comments on this report: David Abramson of the National Center for Disaster Preparedness; Patrick L. Kinney, director of the Climate and Health Program at the Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University; Robert Moore and Ben Chou of NRDC’s Climate and Water program; and NRDC colleagues Steve Fleischli, Becky Hammer, Becky Hayat, Theo Spencer and Monty Schmitt.
    [Show full text]
  • Plans and Prospects for Coastal Flooding in Four Communities Affected by Sandy
    APRIL 2017 W O N G - P A R O D I E T A L . 183 Plans and Prospects for Coastal Flooding in Four Communities Affected by Sandy GABRIELLE WONG-PARODI Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania BARUCH FISCHHOFF Department of Engineering and Public Policy, and Institute for Politics and Strategy, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania BEN STRAUSS Climate Central, Princeton, New Jersey (Manuscript received 4 April 2016, in final form 1 December 2016) ABSTRACT The risk of coastal flooding is increasing due to more frequent intense storm events, rising sea levels, and more people living in flood-prone areas. Although private adaptation measures can reduce damage and risk, most people living in risk-prone areas take only a fraction of those measures voluntarily. The present study examines relationships among individuals’ beliefs and actions regarding flood-related risks based on in-depth interviews and structured surveys in communities deeply affected by Superstorm Sandy. The authors find that residents recognize the risk of coastal flooding and expect it to increase, although they appear to un- derestimate by how much. Although interview participants typically cited climate change as affecting the risks that they face, survey respondents’ acceptance of climate change was unrelated to their willingness to tolerate coastal flooding risks, their beliefs about the effectiveness of community-level mitigation measures, or their willingness to take individual actions. Respondents who reported greater social support also reported both greater tolerance for flood risks and greater confidence in community adaptation measures, suggesting an important, but complex role of personal connections in collective resilience—both keeping people in place and helping them to survive there.
    [Show full text]
  • Coastal Hazards & Flood Mapping – a Visual Guide
    COASTAL HAZARDS & FLOOD MAPPING A VISUAL GUIDE Coastal communities are special places and home to important resources. But what makes them so distinctive is also what makes them at high risk for floods. Floods are the nation’s costliest natural disasters, and coastal communities face many flood risks. These include storm surges, powerful waves, and erosion — all of which can cause extensive damage to homes, businesses, and public spaces. When a coastal storm approaches, community leaders and members of the media may use technical terms to describe storm-related risks. This visual guide explains these terms and how they relate to information shown on flood maps. TABLE OF CONTENTS UNDERSTANDING COASTAL HAZARDS & RISKS ........... 1 Inundation ..............................................................1 Coastal Flooding .....................................................1 Stillwater Elevation ..................................................2 Wave Setup ............................................................2 Storm Surge ...........................................................2 Storm Tide ..............................................................2 Wave Hazards .........................................................3 a. Runup and Overtopping b. Overland Wave Propagation Erosion ...................................................................4 Sea Level Rise ........................................................5 Tsunami ..................................................................5 COASTAL FLOOD MAPS: KEY TERMS
    [Show full text]
  • REFERENCE SHEET for NWS TAUNTON WARNING/ADVISORY THRESHOLDS (Last Updated: March 7, 2017)
    REFERENCE SHEET FOR NWS TAUNTON WARNING/ADVISORY THRESHOLDS (Last Updated: March 7, 2017) The following are National Weather Service criteria for issuing Watches/Warnings/Advisories: Watches: 50% confidence of meeting Warning criteria (generally within 36-48+ hours). Advisories and Warnings: 80% confidence in the event occurrence (generally within 24-36 hours). TYPE OF ISSUANCE WHEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY More than one predominant hazard Winter weather event having more than one predominant hazard (ie., snow and ice, snow and sleet, or snow, ice & sleet) meeting or exceeding advisory criteria for at least one of the precipitation elements, but remaining below warning criteria. Snow, Ocean Effect Snow, and/or Sleet 3 inches averaged over a forecast zone in 12 hours Snow and Blowing Snow Sustained or frequent gusts of 25 to 34 mph accompanied by falling and blowing snow occasionally reducing visibility to ≤ 1/4 mile for ≥ 3 hours Blowing Snow Widespread or localized blowing snow reducing visibility to ≤ ¼ mile with winds < 35 mph Black Ice A Special Weather Statement will usually be issued when sufficient moisture is expected to cause a thin layer of ice on road surfaces, typically on cloudless nights (“black ice”). At forecaster discretion a formal Winter Weather Advisory may be issued instead. FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY Any accretion of freezing rain or freezing drizzle on road surfaces WIND CHILL ADVISORY Wind chill index between -15°F and -24°F for at least 3 hours using only the sustained wind WINTER STORM WARNING More than one predominant hazard Winter weather event having more than one predominant hazard {ie.
    [Show full text]
  • Workshop on the Impacts of Flooding
    Workshop on the Impacts of Flooding Proceed/rigs of a Workshop held in Rockhamptori, Australia, 27 Septeinber 1991. , Edited by G.T. Byron Queensland Department of. ti Environment tand Heritage ’ Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority ‘, , ,’ @ Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority ISSN 0156-5842 ISBN 0 624 12044 7 Published by GBRMPA April 1992 The opinions expressed in th.is document are not necessarily those of the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority or the Queensland Department of Env/ionment an!d Heritage. Great Barrier Reef Environment and P.O. Box 155 P.O. Box1379 North Quay , Townsville Queens’land 4002 Queensland 48 TABLE OF CONTENTS : PREFACE iv 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY V PART A: FORUM PAPERS Jim Pearce MLA Opening Address 1 Peter Baddiley Fitzroy River Basin 3 Rainfalls and The 1991 Flood Event Mike Keane Assessment of the 1991 16 Fitzroy River Flood How much water? J.P. O’Neill, G.T.Byron and Some Physical Characteristics 36 S.C.Wright and Movement of 1991 Fitzroy River flood plume PART B: WORKSHOP PAPERS GROUP A - WATER RELATED’ISSUES Jon E. Brodie and Nutrient Composition of 56 Alan Mitchell the January 1991 Fitzroy River Plume Myriam Preker The Effects of the 1991 75 Central Queensland Floodwaters around Heron Island, Great Barrier Reef i > d.T.Byron and J.P.O’Neill Flood Induced Coral Mortality 76 on Fringing Reefs in Keppel Bay J.S. Giazebrook and Effects of low salinity on 90 R. Van Woesik the tissues of hard corals Acropora spp., Pocillopora sp and Seriatopra sp from the Great Keppel region M.
    [Show full text]
  • Combatting Climate Change the Drought We All Recently Experienced
    Board Director Guest Column Director Linda LeZotte, District 4 Combatting climate change The drought we all recently experienced in California was not only the longest dry spell in history, it was also a forewarning of the extremes that await with a changing climate. Five years of severe drought morphed into deluge shortly after with record rainfall in northern California. As the county’s water resource agency, the Santa Clara Valley Water District works to respond to the looming impacts of climate change in our mission to provide Silicon Valley with safe, clean water for a healthy life, environment, and economy. We’re preparing for wet and dry years, whether that means diversifying our water supply resources to protect us from droughts, or accounting for rising sea levels in our flood protection projects. Rising global temperatures and warmer oceans result in rising sea levels and altered weather patterns. This means more intense and longer heat waves and varying changes in rainfall (not enough or too much). All of these carry dangerous consequences for the Bay Area. The last decade has been riddled with record-setting temperatures. Every year has been warmer than the last, threatening our water supplies. In 2015, snowpack in the Sierra Nevada was dismal, leaving very little to melt and flow to the Delta, where we receive 40 percent of our water supply. With imported water supplies so vulnerable, the district is focused on diversification, including expanding our water conservation and water reuse programs. This helps protect our drinking water during droughts. We are also exploring additional storage opportunities such as an expanded Pacheco Reservoir to increase our emergency water supply.
    [Show full text]
  • A Guide for Evaluating Coastal Community Resilience to Tsunamis
    HOW RESILIENT IS YOUR COASTAL COMMUNITY? A GUIDE FOR EVALUATING COASTAL COMMUNITY RESILIENCE TO TSUNAMIS AND OTHER HAZARDS HOW RESILIENT IS YOUR COASTAL COMMUNITY? A GUIDE FOR EVALUATING COASTAL COMMUNITY RESILIENCE TO TSUNAMIS AND OTHER HAZARDS U.S. Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System Program 2007 Printed in Bangkok, Thailand Citation: U.S. Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System Program. 2007. How Resilient is Your Coastal Community? A Guide for Evaluating Coastal Community Resilience to Tsunamis and Other Coastal Hazards. U.S. Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System Program supported by the United States Agency for International Development and partners, Bangkok, Thailand. 144 p. The opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID. This publication may be reproduced or quoted in other publications as long as proper reference is made to the source. The U.S. Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System (IOTWS) Program is part of the international effort to develop tsunami warning system capabilities in the Indian Ocean following the December 2004 tsunami disaster. The U.S. program adopted an “end-to-end” approach—addressing regional, national, and local aspects of a truly functional warning system—along with multiple other hazards that threaten communities in the region. In partnership with the international community, national governments, and other partners, the U.S. program offers technology transfer, training, and information resources to strengthen the tsunami warning and preparedness capabilities of national and local stakeholders in the region. U.S. IOTWS Document No. 27-IOTWS-07 ISBN 978-0-9742991-4-3 How REsiLIENT IS Your CoastaL COMMUNity? A GuidE For EVALuatiNG CoastaL COMMUNity REsiLIENCE to TsuNAMis AND OthER HAZards OCTOBER 2007 This publication was produced for review by the United States Agency for International Development.
    [Show full text]
  • Coastal Flooding - August 2016
    Climate Change Indicators in the United States: Coastal Flooding www.epa.gov/climate-indicators - August 2016 Coastal Flooding This indicator shows how the frequency of coastal flooding has changed over time. Background Changing sea levels are affecting human activities in coastal areas. Rising sea level inundates low-lying wetlands and dry land, erodes shorelines, contributes to coastal flooding, and increases the flow of salt water into estuaries and nearby groundwater aquifers. Higher sea level also makes coastal infrastructure more vulnerable to damage from storms. “Relative sea level change” refers to the height of the ocean relative to the land at a particular location. As relative sea level rises due to climate change (see the Sea Level indicator), one of the most noticeable consequences is an increase in coastal flooding. Flooding typically occurs during seasonal high tides (“king tides”) and storms that push water toward the shore. In recent years, however, coastal cities are increasingly flooding on days with less extreme tides or little wind, even on sunny days. Floods are happening more often as rising sea level reduces the gap between average sea level and the height of the land. Many coastal cities have defined minor or “nuisance” flooding thresholds. When water rises above this level, minor flooding typically occurs in some streets, many storm drains become ineffective, and a coastal flood advisory may be issued. Recurrent coastal flooding can cause impacts such as frequent road closures, reduced stormwater drainage capacity,
    [Show full text]
  • Spearfish Fire Department Policies and Procedures
    SPEARFISH FIRE DEPARTMENT POLICIES AND PROCEDURES Page 1 of 5 Volume: Operation Section: 20.00 Number: 20.09 Subject: Weather Watches, Warnings, Advisory’s and Spotter Activation Date Issued: 8 August 2019 Originator: Assistant Chief R. Mathis Rescinds: 28 March 2017 Approval: Assistant Chief R. Mathis I. Purpose This procedure provides guidance for safety and general procedures when responding to Weather Spotter activations. II. SCOPE This policy applies to all personnel. III. DEFINITIONS Winter Storm Watch A Winter Storm Watch is issued when there is the potential for significant and hazardous winter weather within 48 hours. It does not mean that significant and hazardous winter weather will occur...it only means it is possible. Significant and hazardous winter weather is defined as a combination of: 1) 5 inches or more of snow/sleet within a 12-hour period or 7 inches or more of snow/sleet within a 24-hour period AND/OR 2) Enough ice accumulation to cause damage to trees or powerlines AND/OR 3) a life threatening or damaging combination of snow and/or ice accumulation with wind. Blizzard Warning A Blizzard Warning means that the following conditions are occurring or expected within the next 12 to 18 hours. 1) Snow and/or blowing snow reducing visibility to 1/4 mile or less for 3 hours or longer AND 2) Sustained winds of 35 mph or greater or frequent gusts to 35 mph or greater. There is no temperature requirement that must be met to achieve blizzard conditions. Winter Storm Warning A Winter Storm Warning is issued when a significant combination of hazardous winter weather is occurring or imminent.
    [Show full text]
  • REFERENCE SHEET for NWS TAUNTON WARNING/ADVISORY THRESHOLDS (Last Updated: June 1, 2018)
    REFERENCE SHEET FOR NWS TAUNTON WARNING/ADVISORY THRESHOLDS (Last Updated: June 1, 2018) The following are National Weather Service criteria for issuing Watches/Warnings/Advisories: Watches: 50% confidence of meeting Warning criteria (generally within 36-48+ hours). Advisories and Warnings: 80% confidence in the event occurrence (generally within 24-36 hours). TYPE OF ISSUANCE WHEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY More than one predominant hazard Winter weather event having more than one predominant hazard (ie., snow and ice, snow and sleet, or snow, ice & sleet) meeting or exceeding advisory criteria for at least one of the precipitation elements, but remaining below warning criteria. Snow, Ocean Effect Snow, and/or Sleet 3 inches averaged over a forecast zone in 12 hours Snow and Blowing Snow Sustained or frequent gusts of 25 to 34 mph accompanied by falling and blowing snow occasionally reducing visibility to ≤ 1/4 mile for ≥ 3 hours Blowing Snow Widespread or localized blowing snow reducing visibility to ≤ ¼ mile with winds < 35 mph Freezing Rain or Freezing Drizzle Any accretion of freezing rain or freezing drizzle on road surfaces Black Ice A Special Weather Statement will usually be issued when sufficient moisture is expected to cause a thin layer of ice on road surfaces, typically on cloudless nights (“black ice”). At forecaster discretion a formal Winter Weather Advisory may be issued instead. WIND CHILL ADVISORY Wind chill index between -15°F and -24°F for at least 3 hours using only the sustained wind WINTER STORM WARNING More than one predominant hazard Winter weather event having more than one predominant hazard {ie.
    [Show full text]
  • Coastal Storms Are a Reality for New York City, Arriving As Hurricanes, Tropical Cyclones ,And Nor’Easters When Certain Meteorological Conditions Converge
    CToaS AL STORMS CHAPTER 4.1 Coastal storms are a reality for New York City, arriving as hurricanes, tropical cyclones ,and nor’easters when certain meteorological conditions converge. Not only dangerous, these storms can be deadly, sustaining destructive winds, heavy rainfall, storm surge, coastal flooding, and erosion. Climate change and rising sea levels are likely to worsen their impacts. W HAT IS THE HAZARD? TROPICAL cycLONES Tropical cyclones are organized areas of precipitation and thunderstorms that form over warm tropical ocean waters and rotate counterclockwise around a low pressure center. Such storms are classified as follows: • A tropical depression is an organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with a defined low pressure center and maximum sustained winds of 38 miles per hour (mph) or less. • A tropical storm is an organized system of strong thunderstorms with a defined low pressure center and maximum sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph. • A hurricane is an intense tropical weather system of strong thunderstorms, a well-defined low pressure center (“eye”), and maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or more. In the North Atlantic Basin—where New York City is located—tropical cyclones often form in the Atlantic Ocean between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, in the Caribbean Sea, or in the Gulf of Mexico. Typically, they first track in a westerly or northwesterly direction. They are then pushed northward and eventually eastward by the force of the Earth’s rotation. They may track up the East Coast of the United States and reach New York City if water temperatures are warm enough and the prevailing winds steer them in this direction.
    [Show full text]