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Manual on Flood Forecasting and Warning

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Manual on Flood Forecasting and Warning Quality ManageMeNt Framework g N i MaNual on For more information, please contact: warn World Meteorological Organization Flood Forecasting and Communications and Public Affairs Office g N Tel.: +41 (0) 22 730 83 14/15 – Fax: +41 (0) 22 730 80 27 and Warning sti E-mail: [email protected] ca e or Hydrology and Water Resources Branch f Climate and Water Department lood Tel.: +41 (0) 22 730 84 79 – Fax: +41 (0) 22 730 80 43 E-mail: [email protected] 7 bis, avenue de la Paix – P.O. Box 2300 – CH-1211 Geneva 2 – Switzerland W_102107 l MANUAL ON f www.wmo.int P-C WMO-No. 1072 Manual on Flood Forecasting and Warning WMO-No. 1072 2011 edition WMO-No. 1072 © World Meteorological Organization, 2011 The right of publication in print, electronic and any other form and in any language is reserved by WMO. Short extracts from WMO publications may be reproduced without authorization, provided that the complete source is clearly indicated. Editorial correspondence and requests to publish, reproduce or translate this publication in part or in whole should be addressed to: Chairperson, Publications Board World Meteorological Organization (WMO) 7 bis, avenue de la Paix Tel.: +41 (0) 22 730 84 03 P.O. Box No. 2300 Fax: +41 (0) 22 730 80 40 CH-1211 Geneva 2, Switzerland E-mail: [email protected] ISBN 978-92-63-11072-5 NOTE The designations employed in WMO publications and the presentation of material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of WMO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area, or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Opinions expressed in WMO publications are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of WMO. The mention of specific companies or products does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by WMO in preference to others of a similar nature which are not mentioned or advertised. CONTENTS Page FOREWORD ................................................................................................................................................. vii PREFACE ....................................................................................................................................................... ix SUMMARY (English, French, Russian and Spanish) .................................................................................... xi CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................................... 1-1 1.1 Background ....................................................................................................................................... 1-1 1.2 Scope and contents of the Manual .................................................................................................... 1-2 1.3 Types and causes of floods ................................................................................................................ 1-4 1.3.1 Definitions ........................................................................................................................ 1-4 1.3.2 Types of floods ................................................................................................................. 1-4 1.3.3 Role of flood forecasting in flood management ................................................................. 1-5 1.4 Fundamental considerations of flood forecasting and warning systems ............................................. 1-6 1.4.1 Definition of flood forecasting and warning system .......................................................... 1-6 1.4.2 Meteorogical considerations ............................................................................................. 1-6 1.4.3 Hydrological considerations .............................................................................................. 1-7 1.4.4 Nature of risks and impacts .............................................................................................. 1-7 1.4.5 Dissemination of forecasts and warnings ........................................................................... 1-7 1.4.6 Institutional aspects .......................................................................................................... 1-8 1.4.7 Legal aspects .................................................................................................................... 1-9 CHAPTER 2. MAIN ASPECTS OF FLOOD FORECASTING SYSTEMS ............................................................. 2-1 2.1 Basic considerations .......................................................................................................................... 2-1 2.1.1 Types of catchment .......................................................................................................... 2-1 2.1.2 Physical processes ............................................................................................................. 2-1 2.1.3 Type of service .................................................................................................................. 2-3 2.1.4 Forecast lead time ............................................................................................................ 2-3 2.2 Data requirements ............................................................................................................................ 2-5 2.2.1 Overall technical requirements ......................................................................................... 2-5 2.2.2 Hydrological data ............................................................................................................. 2-5 2.2.3 Meteorological data.......................................................................................................... 2-5 2.2.4 Topographic data ............................................................................................................. 2-6 2.2.5 Other information and data .............................................................................................. 2-6 2.3 Infrastructure and human resources .................................................................................................. 2-6 2.3.1 Infrastructure .................................................................................................................... 2-6 2.3.2 Human resources .............................................................................................................. 2-7 2.3.2.1 Examples of team structures............................................................................ 2-8 2.3.2.2 Flood forecasting at a national level ................................................................ 2-8 2.3.2.3 General requirements for staffing a national flood warning service .................. 2-8 2.4 Establishing the concept of operations .............................................................................................. 2-8 CHAPTER 3. FLOOD FORECASTING METHODS AND MODELS ................................................................... 3-1 3.1 Introduction ...................................................................................................................................... 3-1 3.2 Precipitation-driven catchment models ............................................................................................. 3-3 3.2.1 Precipitation monitoring and forecasting .......................................................................... 3-3 3.2.1.1 Rainfall ............................................................................................................ 3-3 3.2.1.2 Snowmelt ....................................................................................................... 3-4 iv MANUAL ON FLOOD FORECASTING AND WARNING Page 3.2.2 Event modelling and continuous simulation...................................................................... 3-4 3.2.3 Mode of operation of flow forecasting models in real time ............................................... 3-4 3.2.3.1 Models operating in non-updating mode ....................................................... 3-4 3.2.3.2 Models operating in updating mode ............................................................... 3-5 3.2.4 Types of rainfall–runoff simulation models ........................................................................ 3-6 3.2.5 Snowmelt–runoff models operating in simulation mode ................................................... 3-6 3.2.6 Models for forecast updating in real time .......................................................................... 3-6 3.2.7 The “multi-model” approach to rainfall–runoff modelling and forecasting ........................ 3-6 3.2.7.1 The case for multi-modelling ........................................................................... 3-6 3.2.7.2 Forms of multi-model systems ......................................................................... 3-7 3.2.7.3 Ensemble or probabilistic forecasts .................................................................. 3-7 3.2.8 Parameters in hydrological models ................................................................................... 3-8 3.3 Routing models ................................................................................................................................. 3-8 3.3.1 General ............................................................................................................................ 3-8 3.3.2 Hydrological routing ........................................................................................................
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