Texas Weather and Climate: Patterns, Trends, Events and Useful Resources National Weather Service Austin-San Antonio TX Paul Yura, Warning Coordination Meteorologist Who is the National Weather Service? Who13 is Forecast the National Offices Weather Service? 13 TX Offices 3 NWS River ForecastWho Offices is the National Weather Service?James Paul, ABRFC Service Coordination Hydrologist [email protected] Jeff Graschel, LMRFC Service Coordination Hydrologist [email protected] Greg Waller, WGRFC Service Coordination Hydrologist • Run river models • Forecast height/flow [email protected] RFCs provide hydrologic • Compile/estimate rainfall totals support to NWS forecast • Coordinate with water partners offices (USGS, USACE, IBWC) Forecasting the River Heights Minor - Minimal or no property damage - Possibly some public threat or inconvenience Moderate - Some inundation of structures/roads near streams - May need some evacuations of people /property Forecast Major Height - Extensive inundation of structures and roads - Likely evacuations of people / property Measured Height https://water.weather.gov/ahps/index.php Flood Wave Travel Times “County Warning Area” 33 Counties 7 Day Forecasts Watches/Warnings Decision Support to EMCs, Deployments to EOC Local Research/Outreach 36,000 mi2 NWS Mission: Protection of Life and Property It Takes Partner Relationships… Emergency Management Media (TV, Radio, Newspaper, Social Media) State/Fed agencies First responders Amateur radio General Public Texas has more flooding deaths than any other state Over half of the flood fatalities in Texas occurred while people were in their car. Stats will vary by location Data from NWS National Hazard Statistics Diverse Watershed Characteristics in Texas Snowpack - Water Supply Hill Country Hydrology - Flash Flood threats - Rapid River responses - Cycles of Flood/Drought River Basins of Texas Where and How the Water Flows Complex flow patterns Types of Flooding Ponding & Sheet Flow Flooding Flash Flooding River Flooding Coastal Flooding Flood Timeline Flash or Areal Before Event Onset Flood Flood Warning Flash Flood Advisory Emergency River Flood Warning Increasing Impact Potential ALL Situations Represent Threatening Conditions to Life and/or Property Note: Flooding can (and does) occur without a Flash Flood Watch! Its all about Location, Location, Location 30ft - 72 hrs Flash Flood • Topography River • Urbanization • Soil conditions Flood 30ft - 2 hrs ATXFloods.com Situational Awareness ATXFloods.com Never drive through flooded low water Bexarflood.org crossings! Remember: 6-12-24 Weather Patterns that Trigger Flash Flooding • Cell Mergers (storms combine) • Training (move over same area) • Stationary (storms don’t move) • Tropical System (efficient rain) • Stalled Weather System • Upstream Rain Events • Combination • Burn Scar Cell Mergers (storms combine) 2.58 inches in 15 minutes 6.13 inches in 1 hour 8.59 inches in 1.5 hours 9.46 inches in 2 hours 13.70 inches in 4 hours 15.31 inches in 5 hours 17.00 inches in 24 hours Training (move over same area) Multiple Rounds of Storms • “Train” over the area • Large rain totals • Storms are moving same direction as the upper level winds Stationary (storms don’t move) Several campsites washed away Tropical System (efficient rain) Hurricane Harvey 2017 • Historic rains 40+ inches • Once in a lifetime? Stalled Weather System Summer Low pressure system stalls 2002 over TX…sits for days Canyon Lake overflows Upstream Rain Events Don’t be fooled by good weather / little rain “Wimberley Event” 2015 Combination (Upstream, Training, Tropical, Mergers) The “98” Flood…30+ inches / 18 hrs Burn Scar Vegetation is lost Flash Floods / Mudslides / Landslides Have 3 Ways to Receive Weather Warnings Mass Notification Weather Apps Weather Radio Television Commercial Radio Social Media WEA Messages Originated by NWS Controls are in “Notifications” settings page (iphone) 360 characters, Spanish messages Weather.gov/wrn/wea NWS Mobile Device Webpage mobile.weather.gov Save the site on your home screen Thank You! [email protected].