Political Communications Transformed Also by John Bartle

POLITICAL COMMUNICATIONS: Why Labour Won the General Election of 1997 (co-editor with Ivor Crewe and Brian Gosschalk)

Also by Dylan Griffiths

THATCHERISM AND TERRITORIAL POLITICS Political Communications Transformed From Morrison to Mandelson

Edited by

John Bartle Lecturer in Government British Academy Post-Doctoral Fellow University of Essex and Dylan Griffiths Senior Research Fellow Constitution Unit University College London Editorial matter, selection and Chapter 1 © John Bartle and Dylan Griffiths 2001 Chapters 2 and 9 © John Bartle 2001 Chapter 8 © Dylan Griffiths 2001 Chapters 3–7, 10 © Palgrave Publishers Ltd 2001 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2001 978-0-333-77676-6

All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written permission. No paragraph of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted save with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, 90 Tottenham Court Road, London W1P 0LP. Any person who does any unauthorised act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages. The authors have asserted their rights to be identified as the authors of this work in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. First published 2001 by PALGRAVE Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS and 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, N. Y. 10010 Companies and representatives throughout the world PALGRAVE is the new global academic imprint of St. Martin’s Press LLC Scholarly and Reference Division and Palgrave Publishers Ltd (formerly Macmillan Press Ltd). ISBN 978-1-349-41725-4 ISBN 978-0-333-97728-6 (eBook) DOI 10.1057/9780333977286 This book is printed on paper suitable for recycling and made from fully managed and sustained forest sources. A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Political communications transformed : from Morrison to Mandelson / edited by John Bartle and Dylan Griffiths. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-1-349-41725-4 1. Communication in politics—Great Britain. 2. Mass media—Political aspects—Great Britain. 3. Great Britain– –Politics and government—1945– I. Bartle, John, lecturer. II. Griffiths, Dylan. JA85.2.G7 P65 2000 320'.01'4—dc21 00–066883 10987654321 10 09 08 07 06 05 04 03 02 01 Contents

List of Tables vii

List of Figures viii

Acknowledgements ix

Notes on the Contributors x

List of Acronyms xiii

1Introduction John Bartle and Dylan Griffiths 1

2 Changing Voters or Changing Models of Voting? John Bartle 16

3 Power as well as Persuasion: Political Communication and Party Development Dominic Wring 35

4 The Rise of Campaign Professionalism Martin Harrop 53

5 The Fall and Rise of Constituency Campaigning David Denver and Gordon Hands 71

6The National Daily Press Colin Seymore-Ure 87

7 Political Broadcasting in Britain: System, Ethos and Change Peter Goddard 111

8 Referendum Campaigning Dylan Griffiths 131

9 Assessing Communications and Campaign Effects on Voters John Bartle 145 vi Contents

10 Political Communications and Democratic Politics Pippa Norris 163

Notes 181

Index 205 List of Tables

2.1 The turnover of the vote 1987–92 and 1992–97 18 2.2 Net volatility 30 2.3 Trends in gross volatility 31 2.4 Late deciders and waverers (1964–97) 32 5.1 The use of computers in local campaigns in 1992 and 1997 79 5.2 Telephone canvassing in 1992 and 1997 80 5.3 The strength of campaigns in target and non-target seats, 1997 83 5.4 Campaign intensity and party performance in 1992 and 1997 84 5.5 Campaign intensity and party performance (cases with three responses), 1997 85 6.1 National newspaper circulation, 1945–99 89 6.2 National daily newspapers: circulation 91 6.3 National daily newspapers: ownership 1945–99 95 6.4 Newspaper partisanship at general elections, 1945–97 102 6.5 Newspaper partisanship 1945–97: summary 104 8.1 Referendums held in the United Kingdom 132 10.1 Zero-order correlations between civic engagement and campaign communications, 1964 British general election 173 10.2 Zero-order correlations between civic engagement and campaign communications, 1997 174 10.3 Association between civic engagement and campaign communications with social controls, 1997 175

vii List of Figures

2.1 A vote model 19 9.1 Monthly opinion polls (1992–97) 156 9.2 The campaign polls in 1997 158 10.1 Typology of campaign media 166

viii Acknowledgements

The editors gratefully acknowledge the help of the following indivi- duals: Professor Ivor Crewe of the University of Essex, who gave advice on the project at an early stage; Samantha Laycock and Jack Kneeshaw of the University of Essex for their comments on drafts of Chapters 1 and 2; and Professor Pippa Norris for her advice and encouragement throughout this project. We also wish to thank Sunder Katwala, formerly of Palgrave, and Alison Howson, our commissioning editors, for their assistance in guiding us toward publication.

ix Notes on the Contributors

John Bartle is Lecturer in Government and British Academy Post Doctoral Fellow at the University of Essex. His research interests include voting behaviour, British political parties and political knowledge. He has published articles in the British Journal of Political Science, Political Studies and British Elections and Parties Review. Recent publications include Political Communi- cations: Why Labour Won the General Election of 1997 (London: Frank Cass, 1998) which he edited together with Ivor Crewe and Brian Gosschalk.

David Denver is Professor of Politics at the University of Lancaster. He is the author of Elections and Voting Behaviour in Britain (Hemel Hemp- stead: Harvester Wheatsheaf, 1994) and (with Gordon Hands) Modern Constituency Electioneering (London: Frank Cass, 1997). He has also edited (again with Gordon Hands) Issues and Controversies in British Electoral Behaviour (Harvester Wheatsheaf, 1992). Professor Denver is co-convenor of the Elections, Public Opinion and Parties (EPOP) Group of the UK Political Studies Association and is a frequent commentator on elections in the press, and on radio and television. He has a forthcoming book on the 1997 Scottish referendum, and is researching candidates in the Welsh Assembly and Scottish Parliment elections.

Peter Goddard researches and teaches in the School of Politics and Communication Studies at the University of Liverpool. His research interests include media history and institutions, news, current affairs and politics on television. He has contributed chapters to books including Neil T. Gavin (ed.), Economy, Media and Public Knowledge (Leicester University Press, 1998), and Ivor Crewe et al. (eds), Political Communica- tions: Why Labour Won the General Election of 1997 (London: Frank Cass, 1998), and has published articles in journals including Media, Culture and Society and Parliamentary Affairs. At present, he is undertaking research into World In Action, the long-running British current affairs series.

Dylan Griffiths is a Senior Research Fellow at the Constitution Unit based at University College London. His main responsibility is the man- agement of the Nations and Regions programme, investigating devolution across the United Kingdom. He was formerly a Lecturer in Politics at the University of Newcastle. His research interests include Welsh

x Notes on the Contributors xi government, devolution and political marketing. He has published articles on the government of Wales, voting behaviour and devolution, together with Thatcherism and Territorial Politics (Avebury, 1996).

Gordon Hands is Head of the Department of Politics at the University of Lancaster. He is the co-author (with David Denver) of Modern Constitu- ency Electioneering (London: Frank Cass, 1997). He has also edited (again with David Denver) Issues and Controversies in British Electoral Behaviour (Harvester Wheatsheaf, 1992). He has written widely on British electoral politics and political sociology. He is currently involved with David Denver in an ESRC-funded study of local election campaigning.

Martin Harrop is a Senior Lecturer in Politics at the University of Newcastle. His research interests include electoral behaviour, the media, political communications and comparative politics. He has published extensively in all these areas, contributing a co-authored chapter on the press in The British General Election of 1997 by David Butler and Dennis Kavanagh (London: Macmillan, 1997).

Pippa Norris is Associate Director (Research) of the Shorenstein Center on the Press, Politics and Public Policy and she lectures at the Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University. She has published many books on comparative political behaviour in elections, gender politics and political communications. Current research focuses on a global comparison of the digital divide in the Internet age. Recent books include A Virtuous Circle: Political Communications in Post-Industrial Democracies (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2000).

Colin Seymour-Ure is Professor of Government at the University of Kent at Canterbury. His research interests include political communications and the British press. He has written about a variety of aspects of media and British elections since first contributing a chapter about the press to The British General Election of 1966 by David Butler and AnthonyKing (London: Macmillan, 1966).

Dominic Wring is a Lecturer in Communication and Media Studies at the University of Loughborough where he has been completing a book on the historical development of Labour Party campaigning (Palgrave, forthcoming). Reflecting his research interests in political marketing and communication, he co-convenes the UK Political Studies Association’s Media and Politics Group.

List of Acronyms

BBC British Broadcasting Corporation BEPS British Election Panel Study BES British Election Study BMP Boase, Massimi, Pollitt BSA British Social Attitudes CCO Conservative Party Central Office CPV Colman, Prentis, Varley EEC European Economic Community ERM European Exchange Rate Mechanism EU European Union FPTP First Past the Post IBA Independent Broadcasting Authority ITA Independent Television Authority ITC Independent Television Commission ITN Independent Television News ITV Independent Television MORI Market Operations and Research International MTV Music Television NEC National Executive Committee (Labour Party) NES National Election Study NOP National Opinion Polls NPB National Publicity Bureau PEB Party Election Broadcast PORD Public Opinion Research Department PPB Party Political Broadcast RPA Representation of the People Act SCA Shadow Communications Agency SDP Social Democratic Party SNP Scottish National Party

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