University of Pennsylvania ScholarlyCommons Publicly Accessible Penn Dissertations 2013 Trapped and Untrapped: Mubarak's Opponents on the Eve of His Ouster Eric Robert Trager University of Pennsylvania, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://repository.upenn.edu/edissertations Part of the Political Science Commons Recommended Citation Trager, Eric Robert, "Trapped and Untrapped: Mubarak's Opponents on the Eve of His Ouster" (2013). Publicly Accessible Penn Dissertations. 711. https://repository.upenn.edu/edissertations/711 This paper is posted at ScholarlyCommons. https://repository.upenn.edu/edissertations/711 For more information, please contact [email protected]. Trapped and Untrapped: Mubarak's Opponents on the Eve of His Ouster Abstract Why did Hosni Mubarak's rule in Egypt last thirty years, and why did it fall in a mere eighteen days? This dissertation uses Mubarak's Egypt as a case study for understanding how autocratic regimes can use formally democratic institutions, such as multiparty elections, to "trap" their opponents and thereby enhance their durability, and also investigates the extent to which this strategy may undermine regime durability. Through over 200 interviews conducted in the months preceding and following the 2011 Egyptian uprising, I find that autocratic regimes can manipulate legal opposition parties to coopt their opponents and thereby prevent them from revolting. But over time, the strict limits under which regimes permit their "trapped" parties to operate undermine these parties' credibility as regime opponents, and thus encourages newly emerging oppositionists to seek other - potentially more threatening - means of challenging their regimes. As a result, regimes that rely on "electoral authoritarian" institutions to enhance their longevity may be more vulnerable than the literature commonly suggests. Degree Type Dissertation Degree Name Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) Graduate Group Political Science First Advisor Robert Vitalis Keywords Arab Spring, Egypt, Ghad, Hosni Mubarak, Muslim Brotherhood, Wafd Subject Categories Political Science This dissertation is available at ScholarlyCommons: https://repository.upenn.edu/edissertations/711 TRAPPED AND UNTRAPPED: MUBARAK’S OPPONENTS ON THE EVE OF HIS OUSTER Eric Trager A DISSERTATION In Political Science Presented to the Faculties of the University of Pennsylvania In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy 2013 Supervisor of Dissertation ____________________________ Robert Vitalis Professor of Political Science Graduate Group Chairperson ____________________________ Nancy Hirschmann Professor of Political Science and Graduate Group Chairperson Dissertation Committee Tulia Falleti, Associate Professor of Political Science Brendan O’Leary, Lauder Professor of Political Science To my wife, my best friend Alyssa ii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Throughout the conception, researching, and writing of this dissertation, I have been fortunate to count on many colleagues, friends, and family members for their support. At the University of Pennsylvania, I owe a tremendous debt of gratitude to my insightful committee. My chair Bob Vitalis, and fellow committee members Brendan O’Leary and Tulia Falleti, helpfully guided this project from a general interest in Egyptian politics to a full-bodied dissertation, and their outreach to my wife during the peak of Egypt’s 2011 uprising, when I was still in Egypt and occasionally incommunicado, is an act of true friendship that I will never forget. I would additionally like to thank, in no particular order, Ed Mansfield, Avery Goldstein, Michael Horowitz, Matt Levendusky, Marc Meredith, Dan Gillion, Jeff Green, John Lapinski, Anne Norton, Rudy Sil, Alex Weisiger, and Neil Malholtra for making Penn’s Political Science Department such a warm community for learning and growing. I would also like to thank the Department and the Christopher H. Brown Center for International Politics, both of which provided vital fellowship support for the earlier stages of my fieldwork. I am also thankful for the many friends I met at Penn, starting with my longtime office mate Chris Russell. Our summer spent studying for the comprehensive exams together was miserable in most respects, but I feel extremely fortunate to have had his friendship – and notes. I also want to thank Tim Junio, my fellow department patriot; Jon Argaman, with whom I experienced the 2011 Egyptian uprising, including being evacuated from Cairo on the same charter plane; Mara Ostfeld, who is perhaps the strongest woman I iii know; and Chloe Bakalar, my statistics study buddy. Thanks as well to David Faris and Sarah Salwen, both of whom conducted dissertation fieldwork in Egypt before me and provided key advice, as well as contacts, that allowed me to hit the ground running once I arrived in Egypt during the summer of 2010. I would also like to thank the many friends and colleagues in both Cairo and Washington without whom the process of researching and writing this dissertation would have been far less enjoyable and fruitful: Emma Deputy, Ahmed Samih, Bonnie Wei, Hany Nasr, Ali Nasser, Yasmin Amin, Maryam Ishani, Wendy Steavenson, Rob Satloff, Mike Singh, David Schenker, Andrew Tabler, David Pollock, Dennis Ross, Simon Henderson, Matt Levitt, Mike Eisenstadt, Katie Kiraly, Sam Tadros, Michele Dunne, Jeff Rubin, Brittany Parker, and Steve Cook. I also owe a tremendous debt of gratitude to my two primary interpreters in Egypt, who also served as invaluable advisers and trusted friends: Mohamed Hemeda, with whom I worked during the summer of 2010, and Ahmad Khader, who was my interpreter during the spring of 2011. I would also like to thank the staff at the American Research Center in Egypt, which not only administered the grant I received for the 2011 segment of my fieldwork, but provided vital communal and research support. Djodi Deutsch, who maintained constant contact with me during the height of the 2011 uprising and coordinated my swift return following Mubarak’s ouster, deserves special thanks. Most of all, I am extremely grateful for my family’s unyielding love throughout the long process of completing this dissertation. My parents Cara and Mike, sister Rachel, and iv grandfather Papa Sy all urged me to follow my fascination with Egyptian politics long before it was either fashionable or profitable, and then encouraged me to complete the dissertation even as new diversions emerged following the 2011 uprising. I am also blessed to have wonderful in-laws, Rhonda and Jeff, who have been extremely supportive. The true saint of this project, however, is my wife and best friend Alyssa. For her tremendous love, support, and patience during the many months I was away – whether in Cairo doing research or in my office writing it up – this dissertation is dedicated to her. v ABSTRACT TRAPPED AND UNTRAPPED: MUBARAK’S OPPONENTS ON THE EVE OF HIS OUSTER Eric Trager Robert Vitalis Why did Hosni Mubarak’s rule in Egypt last thirty years, and why did it fall in a mere eighteen days? This dissertation uses Mubarak’s Egypt as a case study for understanding how autocratic regimes can use formally democratic institutions, such as multiparty elections, to “trap” their opponents and thereby enhance their durability, and also investigates the extent to which this strategy may undermine regime durability. Through over 200 interviews conducted in the months preceding and following the 2011 Egyptian uprising, I find that autocratic regimes can manipulate legal opposition parties to coopt their opponents and thereby prevent them from revolting. But over time, the strict limits under which regimes permit their “trapped” parties to operate undermine these parties’ credibility as regime opponents, and thus encourages newly emerging oppositionists to seek other – potentially more threatening – means of challenging their regimes. As a result, regimes that rely on “electoral authoritarian” institutions to enhance their longevity may be more vulnerable than the literature commonly suggests. vi Table of Contents Introduction 1 1. Durable Authoritarianism and Authoritarian Vulnerability 10 2. Tagammu: Trapping Egypt’s Left Since 1976 36 3. The New Wafd Party: Trapped By Regime Dependency 71 4. The Ghad Party: Displaced Renegades and Regime Puppets 114 5. The Muslim Brotherhood: Cornered By Repression 154 6. The Emergence of Egypt’s Untrappable Activists 193 7. A Revolutionary Coalition Versus Non-Revolutionary Parties 220 8. Conclusion: Uprising of the Untrapped 241 Appendix: List of Interviews 250 Bibliography 259 vii Introduction On January 7, 2011, I interviewed former Egyptian State Security Court Judge Said Ashmawy at his apartment in Cairo’s posh Zamalek district. I had just started another round of fieldwork for my dissertation on Egypt’s “durable authoritarianism,” and given State Security’s central role in manipulating the Mubarak regime’s political opponents, Ashmawy promised to be a fascinating interviewee. But he was also astoundingly odd. The oddness began from the moment I approached his building. A police officer was expecting me, and he escorted me to an elevator, locked us inside, unlocked us when we reached Ashmawy’s floor, and accompanied me to Ashmawy’s door, leaving only after he saw that I had safely entered Ashmawy’s apartment. The septuagenarian Ashmawy welcomed me tersely, guiding me along a narrow path through a bric-a-brac- crammed reception room, and into a living room that contained even more bric-a-brac: