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Numerical Study of a Typhoon with a Large Eye: Model Simulation and Verification

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Numerical Study of a Typhoon with a Large Eye: Model Simulation and Verification VOLUME 133 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW APRIL 2005 Numerical Study of a Typhoon with a Large Eye: Model Simulation and Verification QING-HONG ZHANG National Center for Atmospheric Research,* Boulder, Colorado, and Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China SHOU-JUN CHEN Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China YING-HWA KUO National Center for Atmospheric Research,* Boulder, Colorado KAI-HON LAU Center for Coastal and Atmospheric Research, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Kowloon, Hong Kong, China RICHARD A. ANTHES University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado (Manuscript received 11 March 2003, in final form 26 July 2004) ABSTRACT Typhoon Winnie (1997) was the fourth supertyphoon in the western North Pacific in 1997. In its mature stage, an outer eyewall, consisting of deep convection with a diameter of 370 km, was observed by satellite and radar. Within this unusually large outer eyewall existed an inner eyewall, which consisted of a ring of shallow clouds with a diameter of ϳ50 km. In this study, Typhoon Winnie is simulated using a nested-grid version of the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU–NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5) with an inner grid length of 9 km. The model reproduces an outer cloud eyewall with a diameter of ϳ350 km. The simulated radar reflectivity and hourly precipitation are verified with satellite microwave, infrared, and cloud brightness temperature images. Analysis of the model results indicates that the large outer eyewall in many ways possesses the structure of a typical hurricane eyewall. This includes strong tangential winds and radial inflow outside the eyewall as well as an extremely large horizontal wind shear right at the eyewall. The outer eyewall is characterized with a ring of high vorticity (RHV). This RHV is closely related to a ring of high convergence (RHC). This RHC is caused by organized convective systems along the eyewall. The eye simulated by Winnie is char- acterized by a broad region of warm, dry slowly sinking air. The factors determining the diameter of eyes in tropical cyclones are discussed by considering the scale of the environmental angular momentum and the maximum kinetic energy achieved by parcels of air originating in the environment and reaching the radius of maximum wind. It is hypothesized that the formation of a large eye is favored by large circulations in which parcels of air are drawn in toward the center of the storm from great distances, and trajectories of air in Winnie that support this hypothesis are shown. * The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored 1. Introduction by the National Science Foundation. Numerical simulation of tropical cyclones, including hurricanes and typhoons, started in the late 1960s with Corresponding author address: Dr. Ying-Hwa Kuo, MMM, Na- tional Center for Atmospheric Research, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, axisymmetric models (e.g., Ooyama 1969; Yamasaki CO 80307-3000. 1968a,b). The first three-dimensional simulation was E-mail: [email protected] achieved by Anthes et al. (1971) and Anthes (1972), © 2005 American Meteorological Society 725 Unauthenticated | Downloaded 09/25/21 11:30 AM UTC MWR2867 726 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW VOLUME 133 using a three-level hydrostatic model with 30-km hori- ellite and surface observations. Section 2 gives an over- zontal grid resolution. This simulation captured many view of Typhoon Winnie. The MM5 model and initial features of a hurricane, including the asymmetric out- fields are discussed in section 3. Section 4 presents the flow and the spiral rainbands. By using a triply nested model simulation and verification. The vertical struc- model, Jones (1977) simulated an asymmetric ring of ture of the outer eyewall is analyzed in section 5. A maximum winds and a spiral convergence flow. A re- discussion of the factors determining the diameter of view of the early numerical simulations of hurricanes eyes is provided in section 6. Finally, a summary is can be found in Anthes (1982). given in section 7. Over the past two decades, considerable progress has been made in the simulation and prediction of typhoons and hurricanes. Kurihara and Bender (1982) simulated 2. Overview of Typhoon Winnie the detailed eye structure of intense hurricanes using a nested-grid model with an inner resolution of 5 km. Tripoli (1992) carried out a nonhydrostatic simulation Typhoon Winnie originated from a tropical distur- and obtained more realistic structures of hurricane bance with organized deep convection near 6°N, 167°E. rainbands. Krishnamurti et al. (1989) demonstrated It was labeled as a tropical depression by JTWC (1997) that the Florida State University high-resolution global at 0600 UTC 8 August (Fig. 1). The depression moved model could forecast the deepening process and the west-northwestward and became Tropical Storm Win- development of spiral rainbands of a hurricane over the nie by 0600 UTC 9 August. Winnie intensified rapidly North Atlantic a few days in advance. Reed et al. (1988) and reached typhoon intensity by 0000 UTC 10 August. showed that the European Centre for Medium-Range It attained its peak intensity at 0600 UTC 12 August Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model could predict hur- with a minimum central pressure of 898 hPa and a Ϫ ricane genesis several days in advance. Recently, Liu maximum wind speed of 72 m s 1 (JTWC 1997). A et al. (1997, 1999) reported a successful simulation of well-defined small eye was observed on the satellite Hurricane Andrew (1992) using the fifth-generation image with a diameter of about 30 km at 2133 UTC 11 Pennsylvania State University–National Center for August (not shown) when Winnie reached its peak in- Atmospheric Research (Penn State–NCAR) Meso- tensity and approached the northern Mariana Islands. scale Model (MM5) with a horizontal grid size of 6 km. Winnie maintained its intensity for the next 24 h and They simulated an echo-free eye with a diameter of then weakened slowly. It moved west-northwestward, 18–24 km and analyzed the kinematics and dynamics of passing through Mariana Islands; Guam Island; Oki- this eye. nawa, Japan; Taiwan; finally landing in Zhejiang Prov- A well-defined eye is one of the most remarkable ince on the east coast of China at 1200 UTC 18 August. features of a mature tropical cyclone. In general, the After landfall, Winnie recurved to the northeast, inter- diameter of a hurricane eye over the Atlantic observed acted with a cold front, and dissipated over northeast- by satellite varies from 55 to 85 km (Weatherford 1984). ern China. Winnie caused significant damage along its Eyes with diameters less than 55 km are considered to path; China alone suffered more than several hundred be small, while those with diameters greater than 85 km million U.S. dollars in damages. are considered to be large. There are some cases with A series of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Ad- extremely small eyes; for instance, supertyphoon Tip ministration (NOAA) polar-orbiting satellite infrared (1979) had a small eye with a diameter of 15 km and a images with a resolution of 5 km shows the evolution of record central pressure of 870 hPa (Dunnavan and Winnie’s eyewall (Fig. 2). At 2138 UTC 14 August, Diercks 1980). In contrast, the Joint Typhoon Warning Winnie was located at 22.8°N, 135.7°E. Convective Center (JTWC 1960) reported a 200-mile (370 km) di- cloud bands spiraled toward the center. Winnie had a ameter eyewall observed by radar in Typhoon Carmen, typically sized eye with a diameter of about 30 km (Fig. 20 August 1960. (The JTWC reports may be found on- 2a). We note that at this time there were two large line at https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/atcr/ convective rainbands, one located on the northwestern atcr_archive.html.) Both of these two extreme cases oc- quarter, and the other in the southeastern quarter. Both curred over the western North Pacific and both had rainbands appeared to be connected with the inner eye- unusually large circulations. wall. In the next 7 h (Fig. 2b), the spiral cloud bands Typhoon Winnie (1997) is another typhoon with an rotated cyclonically around the center and began to extremely large (370-km diameter) eyewall, tying Ty- take the shape of an outer eyewall. The outer cloud phoon Carmen for the largest eye ever recorded band became more circular at 0456 UTC 16 August (Lander 1999). This is an interesting case because it is (Fig. 2c). A cloud-free zone formed over about three- possible that the dynamics and structure of this large quarters of the area between the outer cloud band and eyewall may differ from those associated with normal- the eye, but the cloud band was still connected with the sized eyes. In this paper, we study the evolution and inner cloud eyewall. By 1728 UTC 16 August (Fig. 2d), structure of Winnie’s large-diameter outer eyewall as the outer cloud bands had become detached from the simulated by a numerical model and verified with sat- inner cloud eyewall and had formed a large-diameter Unauthenticated | Downloaded 09/25/21 11:30 AM UTC APRIL 2005 ZHANG ET AL. 727 FIG. 1. The model domains and the best track of Typhoon Winnie (⅙; every 12 h) from 0000 UTC 6 Aug to 0000 UTC 22 Aug 1997 (JTWC 1997) and the model-simulated track from 0000 UTC 15 Aug to 0000 UTC 19 Aug 1997 (●; every 12 h). outer eyewall.1 A nearly cloud-free moat was created lar hurricanes. Annular hurricanes have somewhat between the inner and outer eyewalls. larger eyes than the Atlantic average of 23-km radius, Observations show that many typhoons that develop but their diameters are much smaller than Winnie’s.
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