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Focus: Iran Professor Anoushiravan Ehteshami and Dr gegründet vom Nah- und Mittelost-Verein Focus: Iran Professor Anoushiravan Ehteshami and Dr. Luciano Zaccara Reflections on Iran ’s 2013 Presidential Elections Dr. Rouzbeh Parsi Edging towards equilibrium – The presidency of Hassan Rouhani Professor Dr. David Menashri Hassan Rouhani: Iran’s New Hope for Change Dr. Arshin Adib-Moghaddam What is power in Iran? The shifting foundations of the Velayat-e faqih Saleh Zamani New Iran by the Moderates: An analysis on sociopolitical forces and government Dr. Liora Hendelman-Baavur “The Mirror has Two Faces”: The Islamic Republic’s Dual Policy toward the Internet Dr. Sanam Vakil The Iranian Women’s Movement: Agency and Activism through History Arastu Salehi Rethinking Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions Alexander Niedermeier Between Cyber War and Arab Spring: How Iran’s Military and Security Forces Confront Current Threats and Challenges David Ramin Jalilvand Recent developments and challenges in Iranian oil and gas sector Professor Dr. Fred H. Lawson Regional Impact of the Third Phase of Syria’s Civil War Jägerstrasse 63 d • D - 10117 Berlin • Tel.: +49 (0)30 - 206410-21 • Fax: +49 (0)30 - 206410-29 www.deutsche-orient-stiftung.de • www.deutsches-orient-institut.de • [email protected] NUMOV services since 79 years: Extensive consulting Initiation and extension of cooperation Up-to-date business information Providing market information Supporting market entries Analysis of economic and business trends Promotion of import and export Information on projects and tenders Business delegations Representation of Interests Training, Lectures, Seminars and Conferences Match-making events Project-Hotline Bi-monthly Magazine “Near and Middle East Economic Forum” (Wirtschaftsforum Nah- und Mittelost) Near and Middle East Economic Handbook Founder and coordination office of the Federation of European Near and Middle East Business Associations German Orient-Foundation / German Orient-Institute German-Egyptian Economic Council Saudi German Business Dialogue German-Yemenite Forum Qatar German Business Forum Iraqi German Business Dialogue NUMOV Junior Section NUMOV Senior Consultants Section www.numov.de [email protected] Chairman Dr. Rainer Seele, CEO Helene Rang, Honorary Chairman Gerhard Schröder, Former Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany Editorial / Content Editorial Content Dear ORIENT readers , Abstra cts ........................................................................................ 4 Not only have the Iranian presidential elections of ARTICLES June 2013 changed the political landscape in the country, they may very well also bear far reaching Professor Anoushiravan Ehteshami and Dr. Luciano Zaccara consequences for the entire region. The new Reflections on Iran ’s 2013 Presidential Elections .......................... 7 president, Hassan Rouhani, is – unlike his pred - ecessor – a centrist who managed to win a con - Dr. Rouzbeh Parsi siderable amount of the reformist vote. While clearly belonging to Iran’s political establishment, Edging towards equilibrium – Rouhani has chosen a moderate tone since tak - The presidency of Hassan Rouhani ............................................. 15 ing office – first and foremost concerning the dis - pute about Iran’s nuclear program. Professor Dr. David Menashri Hassan Rouhani: Rouhani, who is considered a protégé of former Iran’s New Hope for Change ....................................................... 20 president Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, seems to be trying hard to end his country’s status as an Dr. Arshin Adib-Moghaddam international pariah. While Iran has asserted itself What is power in Iran? as a regional power and an important player also The shifting foundations of the Velayat-e faqih ............................ 30 in the Syrian conflict, western sanctions have taken a heavy toll on the country’s economy: In - dustrial production is eroding rapidly and oil rev - Saleh Zamani enues are decreasing , while unemployment is on New Iran by the Moderates: the rise. With these and other internal challenges, An analysis on sociopolitical forces and government .................. 38 Rouhani has good reasons to reach out to the United States and other western powers. Dr. Liora Hendelman-Baavur “The Mirror has Two Faces”: In their article , Professor Anoush Ehteshami The Islamic Republic’s Dual Policy toward the Internet ............... 44 and Dr. Luciano Zaccara analyse the back - ground of the Iranian presidential elections and Dr. Sanam Vakil the victory of Hassan Rouhani. Dr. Rouzbeh The Iranian Women’s Movement: Parsi provides an overview of the internal and ex - ternal challenges facing the new administration Agency and Activism through History .......................................... 49 after the eight years of Ahmadinejad’s rule . Pro - fessor Dr. David Menashri is sceptical about the Arastu Salehi Iranian system’s ability to change with the elec - Rethinking Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions ............................................ 55 tion of the new president and examines the prob - ability of a policy shift in key policy issues. Dr. Alexander Niedermeier Arshin Adib-Moghaddam unravels the founda - Between Cyber War and Arab Spring: tions of power on the Islamic Republic’s system of How Iran’s Military and Security Forces Confront the Velayat-e faqih and uncovers the trend to - Current Threats and Challenges .................................................. 60 wards a pragmatist-realist approach. Saleh Za - explores the role of social forces in Iran with mani David Ramin Jalilvand a special emphasis on the new middle class. Dr. Recent developments and challenges Liora Hendelman-Baavur analyses the Islamic Republic’s policy towards the internet and its in Iranian oil and gas sector .......................................................... 67 prospects under the new administration . Dr. Sanam Vakil looks into the emergence and de - Professor Dr. Fred H. Lawson velopment of the Iranian women’s movement and Regional Impact of the Third Phase of Syria’s Civil War .............. 74 its engagement in political campaigns. Arastu Salehi deals with Iran’s nuclear program and REVIEWS tackles western misperceptions regarding Iran’s current geostrategic and economic interests. Thomas Pierret Alexander Niedermeier outlines the Iranian mil - Religion and State in Syria. itary strategy with special regard to its capabili - The Sunni Ulama from Coup to Revolution ................................. 82 ties in the field of cyber warfare. David Ramin Jalilvand reviews the recent developments in the Iranian oil and gas sector and gives an overview Mark N. Katz of the challenges ahead. And in conclusion, Dr. Leaving without Losing. Fred H. Lawson analyses the most recent de - The War on Terror after Iraq and Afghanistan .............................. 84 velopments in the civil war raging within the boundaries of Iran’s most important regional ally : Ronen A. Cohen Syria. The Hojjatiyeh Society in Iran: Ideology and Practice from the 1950s to the Present .................. 86 I wish you an enjoyable reading. New Publications ......................................................................... 89 Sincerely yours, Events .......................................................................................... 91 Authors ........................................................................................ 92 Dr. Gunter Mulack Boar d / Board of Trustees ............................................................ 94 Director of the German Orient-Institute Imprint .......................................................................................... 95 ORIENT VI / 2013 3 Abstracts Professor Anoush Ehteshami and Dr. Luciano Zaccara Reflections on Iran’s 2013 Presidential Elections Since 1979 the Islamic Republic has held literally dozens of elections for various bodies and portfolios. Iranian elections are always interesting to observe and despite the authoritarian nature of the regime such elections as the presidential ones matter a great deal, for not only do they provide a window onto the workings of the Islamist state, but more importantly because their outcome really matters and ac - tually does affect the country’s policy process and Iran’s direction of travel. The outcome of such na - tional polls also tells us something about the balance of political forces in this faction-ridden polity. For these reasons, this paper considers the background to the crucial June 2013 presidential elections, re - views the standing of the ‘selected’ candidates, and delves into an analysis of the domestic political con - text for the election victory of Hojjatoleslam Hassan Rouhani. In doing so, the paper also explores some of the national and international ramifications of his victory. Dr. Rouzbeh Parsi Edging towards equilibrium – The presidency of Hassan Rouhani What does the political landscape look like after eight years of Ahmadinejad and what did he represent beyond the caricature? That landscape is now President Hassan Rouhani’s inheritance. As a centrist who won with the help of reformist voters, how can he navigate this landscape? The economy is the most pressing issue and it entails improving management at home and mending fences abroad. The latter requires both resolving the nuclear issue and the regional conflicts that have a sectarian dimen - sion which makes them extremely dangerous. Professor Dr. David Menashri Hassan Rouhani: Iran’s New Hope for Change Dr. Hassan Rouhani’s surprising sweeping victory in Iran’s
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