February 2019 The Security Times – Challenges 25

thermore, after the bridge’s inau- new Ukrainian Orthodox Church, BY ANN-DORIT BOY guration, the Russian coast guard which Poroshenko described as – a branch of the Federal Secret “tearing off the last chains that tied or the first ten months of Service (FSB) – began illegitimate us to Moscow,” might also help him 2018, the war in Ukraine checks on merchant ships. This PICTURE ALLIANCE/REUTERS win back some support. Fcontinued to simmer effectively strangled business at the Russia’s aggression in the Black without making front-page news ports of Mariupol and Berdyansk Sea also shows how little Putin abroad. Neither the Russian- in the Sea of Azov, which have been worries about the possibility of a backed separatists nor Ukrai- major export points for coal and strong response from the West. nian forces escalated the fighting steel since Soviet times. The United States and Europe beyond limited but often deadly Russia’s attack in late November initially reacted with mere expres- violations of the Minsk II agree- has raised tensions with Ukraine to a sions of concern. Meanwhile, ment along the Eastern Ukrainian new high. Russian coast guard forces Washington offered a symbolic $10 frontline. The situation changed not only intercepted and blockaded million “to further build Ukraine’s on Nov. 25, when Russian coast the Ukrainian naval vessels; they also naval capacities.” Germany and guard vessels attacked and seized wounded several Ukrainian crew France pushed for an enlargement three Ukrainian naval vessels, two members. In total, Russian service- of the OSCE’s Observer Mission small gunboats and a tug in the men captured 24 Ukrainian sailors, in Ukraine to include the Kerch Black Sea, preventing them from who have been in custody since Strait, but Russia rejected the transiting to the Sea of Azov via January 2019 and are being accused plan. It remains unclear if Berlin the Kerch Strait. It was the first of illegal border crossing. and Paris will at least be able to direct clash between Russia and An investigation by Bellingcat, Testing the waters: Russian naval blockade at the Kerch Strait send their own forces to monitor Ukraine since the onset of the an independent group of internet the area, since Russia and Ukraine crisis in 2014, when Russia sent researchers, confirmed the Ukrai- would have to agree on the terms soldiers without uniform markings nian claim that the vessels were of such a mission. to invade the peninsula of Crimea located in international waters of the The November incident has and occupy the Donbass region. Black Sea at the time of the attack. It revived dormant theories regard- is Ukraine’s word ing the potential of a Russian inva- against Russia’s as A new frontline at sea sion along the coast of the Azov to whether or not Sea in order to create a land bridge

SHUTTERSTOCK Ukraine followed between Russia and Crimea, a plan advance notifica- Russia’s aggression in the Black Sea shows how little that may seem obsolete since the tion procedures it worries about a strong response from the West completion of the Kerch bridge. before attempt- While this particular scenario still ing to transit the appears unlikely, a further escala- Kerch Strait. tion of the conflict is not. Russia During the Not surprisingly, Russian media President Putin openly accused support for delaying critical anti- has tested the waters once more summer months and military experts criticized the his Ukrainian counterpart, Petro corruption reforms and keeping with this latest clash and learned leading up to Ukrainian announcement as a prov- Poroshenko, of provoking the inci- the old system of influential oli- that it can act with de facto impu- the incident, ocation and warned that the gov- dent in the Sea of Azov to boost garchs intact. There is no doubt nity. It is highly improbable, though, Russia report- ernment in Kiev should not invite his popularity, claiming “the war that Poroshenko is more likely to that Russia would attempt further The Kerch Strait is located edly expanded its military pres- NATO member fleets for friendly in Ukraine is not going to end – as stay in power as long as the war escalation prior to the Ukrainian between the Russian mainland ence in the Sea of Azov to some visits in the Sea of Azov and the long as the government in Kiev is continues. His decision to declare elections, for it would encourage to the east and Crimea to the 40 ships. In September, the Ukrai- Black Sea – both important pas- in power.” martial law for the first time since the country to unite behind Poro- west. Russia and Ukraine share nian government responded by sages for Russia’s navy. Thus, the The fact remains, however, that 2014 in reaction to Russia’s attack shenko with even more zeal. these waters under an interna- announcing its intent to set up a attack against the Ukrainian ves- the Ukrainian president cannot was thus heavily criticized in tional treaty signed in 2003. After new naval base in Berdyansk to sels can be interpreted as a warning settle this conflict unless Russia Ukraine as a political stunt and also Russia annexed Crimea, however, “repel Russian aggression in the shot to deter Ukraine’s leadership acts first. Yet Putin has yet to make helped fuel Russian rhetoric. it appears to consider the strait region.” This goal is ambitious from opening its new naval base in a credible attempt to end the The Kremlin’s interference, how- ANN-DORIT BOY was a correspondent in Ukraine its national waters and is restrict- given that the Ukrainian navy has Berdyansk. fighting. An unstable and chaotic ever, will not increase the likeli- for the Frankfurter Allgemeine ing access from Ukraine’s east- been substantially weakened by The timing of the clash – four Ukraine serves his interests better hood of another pro-Russian pres- Zeitung and the Neue Zürcher ern ports to the Black Sea. A new the loss of a larger part of its fleet months before the presidential than a pacified one. ident in the upcoming elections Zeitung. In 2016, she worked for the United Nations Office bridge across the Kerch Strait, during the annexation of Crimea elections in Ukraine – suggests that President Poroshenko, who in March, since a large majority for the Coordination of which Russia opened in May 2018, and that it has thus far received the Russian leadership was look- started as a white hope after the of Ukrainians support indepen- Humanitarian Affairs (UN OCHA) was built too low for many larger little support from Western part- ing for an opportunity to inter- pro-European revolution on dence from Russia in every pos- in Kiev. Ukrainian ships to pass under. Fur- ners. fere in Ukraine’s political process. Maidan Square, has lost domestic sible way. The recent creation of a

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