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The 1973 Economic Report of the President

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THE 1973 ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT HEARINGS BEFORE 'THE JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES NINETY-THIRD CONGRESS FIRST SESSION PART 1 FEBRUARY 6, 7, 8, AND 12, 1973 Printed for the use of the Joint Economic Committee U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE 93-142 WASHINGTON: 1973 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402 Price $1.85 domestic postpaid or $1.50 GPO Bookstore Stock Number 527"-01816 ORPW C JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE (Created pursuant to sec. 5 (a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) WRIGHT PATMAN, Texas, Chairman WILLIAM PROXMIRE, Wisconsin, Vice Chairman HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES SENATE RICHARD BOLLING, Missouri JOHN SPARKMAN, Alabama HENRY S. REUSS, Wisconsin J. W. FULBRIGHT, Arkansas MARTHA W. GRIFFITHS, Michigan ABRAHAM RIBICOFF, Connecticut WILLIAM S. MOORHEAD, Pennsylvania HUBERT H. HUMPHREY, Minnesota HUGH L. CAREY, New York LLOYD M. BENTSEN, JR., Texas WILLIAM B. WIDNALL, New Jersey JACOB K. JAVITS, New York BARBER B. CONABLE, JR., New York CHARLES H. PERCY, Illinois CLARENCE J. BROWN, Ohio JAMES B. PEARSON, Kansas BEN B. BLACKBURN, Georgia RICHARD S. SCHWEIKER, Pennsylvania JOHN R. STARK, 1Executive Director LOUGHLIN F. McHUGH, Senior Economist ECONOMISTS WILLIAM A. Cox Lucy A. FALCONE JERRY J. JASINOWSKI JOHN R. KARLIK RICHARD F. KAUFMAN L. DOUGLAS LEE COURTENAY M. SLATER MINORITY LESLIE J. BANDER GEORGE D. KRUMRHAAR, Jr. (Counsel) WALTER B. LAESSIG (Counsel) (II) CONTENTS WITNESSES AND STATEMENTS TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 6, 1973 Patman, Hon. Wright, chairman of the Joint Economic Committee: Page Opening statement- 1 Proxmire, Hon. William, vice chairman of the Joint Economic Committee: Opening statement------------------------------------ 2 Widnall, Hon. William B., member of the Joint Economic Committee: Opening statement-4 Stein, Hon. Herbert, Chairman, Council of Economic Advisers, accom- pained by Ezra Solomon, member; and Marina Whitman, member---- 5 WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 7, 1973 Patman, Hon. Wright, chairman of the Joint Economic Committee: Opening statement---------------------------------------- 29 Shultz, Hon. George P., Secretary of the Treasury, accompanied by Paul A. Volcker, Under Secretary for Monetary Affairs; and John T. Dunlop, Director, Cost of Living Council - 31 THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 8, 1973 Patman, Hon. Wright, chairman of the Joint Economic Committee: Opening statement -67 Ash, Hon. Roy L., Director, Office of Management and Budget, accom- panied by Samuel M. Cohn, Assistant Director; William A. Morrill, Assistant Director; Jack Carlson, Assistant to the Director for Planning and Economic Affairs; and Paul H. O'Neill, Assistant Director -70 MONDAY, FEBRUARY 12, 1973 Patman, Hon. Wright, chairman of the Joint Economic Committee: Opening statement 215 Stein, Hon. Herbert, Chairman, Council of Economic Advisers, accom- panied by Ezra Solomon, member; and Marina Whitman, member---- 216 SUBMISSIONS FOR THE RECORD THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 8, 1973 Ash, Hon. Roy L., et al.: Tables: Summary of congressional action on President's budget pro- posals -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 70 Distribution of budget outlays by purpose, fiscal years 1969 and 1974- 74 Response to Representative Moorhead's request to supply for the record a breakdown of what defense procurement programs were affected by the impoundment -102 Response to Representative Reuss' request to supply a chart on foreign and international holdings of public debt securities as a percent of GNP -115 Response to Senator Humphrey's and Senator Proxmire's request to supply for the record program reductions and terminations from the budget -------------------------- 124 (mI) IV Ash, Hon. Roy L.-Continued page Response to Senator Proxmire's query regarding the S-3A program 187 Response to Senator Proxmire's request to supply corrections and and comments regarding the committee's chart entitled "Budget Trends"----------------------------------- 193 Response to Senator Proxmire's request to supply for the record Federal outlays for benefits to low-income persons for fiscal years 1972, 1973, and 1974 -198 Response to Senator Proxmire's request to supply for the record the criteria for future reductions or eliminations of funds for Federal programs -202 Response to Senator Humphrey's query regarding the amount of money in the budget for South.Victnam for service-funded mili- tary assistance -205 Patman, Hon. Wright: Tables: Totals of regular annual supplemental, and deficiency appropria- tion bills, as enacted, and comparison with estimates considered, 83d through 92d Congresses -69 Interest rates -69 Money market rates - 69 Proxmire, Hon. William: Letter to Hon. Caspar Weinberger, Deputy Director, Office of Management and Budget, dated September 5, 1972, regarding a special analysis on cash subsidies and a special analysis covering tax subsidies and/or expenditures -99 Reuss, Hon. Henry S.: "The Rich Get Richer," speech from the Congressional Record, January 23, 1973 -116 MONDAY, FEBRUARY 12, 1973 Patman, Hon. Wright: Letter to Hon. Herbert Stein, Chairman, Council of Economic Advisers, from Chairman Patman, dated February 21, 1973, requesting the Council to supply for the record estimates of receipts and expenditures on a national income account basis by half years, both actual and full employment, for fiscal years 1973 and 1974; and also enclosing written questions of committee members -266 Stein, Hon. Herbert, et al.: Supplement to Marina Whitman's statement in response to questions of Representative Widnall - Response to Senator Proxmire's request to supply for the record the interest rates charged on selected types of bank loans -243 Supplement of Hon. Herbert Stein in response to questions of Repre- sentative Brown _ Response to Representative Brown's request to supply for the record comments on how to determine effectively what a full employment rate is 3 Clarification of colloquy with Senator Proxmire regarding the funding of the National Commission on Productivity -262 Letter to Chairman Patman, dated March 16, 1973, enclosing the Council of Economic Advisers' estimates of actual and full-employ- ment receipts and expenditures on a national income account basis by half years for fiscal 1973 and 1974 -266 Response of Hon. Herbert Stein to additional written questions posed by Committee members - 267 THE 1973 ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 6, 1973 CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES, JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE, Washington, D.C. The committee met, pursuant to notice, at 10:10 a.m., in room 2128, Rayburn House Office Building, Hon. Wright Patman (chairman of the committee) presiding. Present: Representatives Patman, Reuss, Griffiths, Moorhead, Carey, Widnall, Brown, and Blackburn; and Senators Proxmire, Humphrey, and Bentsen. Also present: John R. Stark, executive director; Loughlin F. McHugh, senior economist; Michael J. Runde, administrative assistant; John R. Karlik, Richard F. Kaufman, and Courtenay M. Slater, economists; Lucy A. Falcone and Jerry J. Jasinowski, research economists; George D. Khrumbhaar, Jr., minority counsel; Walter B. Laessig, minority counsel; and Leslie J. Bander, minority economist. OPENING STATEMENT OF CHAIRMAN PATMAN Chairman PATMAN. The committee will please come to order. This morning the Joint Economic Committee begins its annual hearings on the President's economic program. As you know, it is the duty of this committee, after considering the program, to advise the Congress as to every one of its recommendations. I note that the administration has praised itself considerably for the improved situation in our economy. I must say, however, that I cannot share this optimism nor can any of my colleagues. Our economy is troubled by a number of serious problems: First, unemployment is still much too high. The objectives of tbe Employment Act are not being served when there are 4 million people out of work in this country. Second, high interest rates, directly connected as they are with unemployment and poverty, are being permitted to go still higher despite the fact that the President has the authority to roll back the cost of money to a reasonable level. Third, the wage-price program, weak as it was, had been much further weakened by recent administration action so that the danger of inflation is facing the country. Fourth, the heartless budget policies of the Nixon administration are destroying the social programs that were built up through hard work over many years. Fifth, our tax system is riddled with loopholes that benefit the rich at the expense of the moderate and lower income people. (1) 2 Sixth, the national debt could be instantly reduced by $70 billion and interest totaling $4 billion a year could be eliminated if the paid up Federal bonds held by the Federal Reserve were canceled, as they should be. The Federal Reserve in turn would then be financed through the appropriation process and thus made to answer to the people of the Nation. Finally, the administration is conducting a charade when it pur- ports to hold itself out as the guardian of fiscal responsibility. The fact of the matter is that Congress, more than the administration, has fulfilled this role. Congress has cut the Nixon administration budget every year it has been in existence. It has cut some $20 billion from the budgets of every President for the past 26 years. We will be exploring these problems and many others in the days ahead. I can think of no more important goal for this Congress than to press for improvement in our economy, reduction in employment, and a fair break for the little fellow. On behalf of the committee I wish to welcome Chairman Herbert Stein and his fellow members of the Council of Economic Advisers, Ezra Solomon and Marina Whitman. It is a pleasure to see you here. You may begin your testimony as you see fit, Mr. Stein, but first Senator Proxmire wanted to be heard briefly, and Senator Proxmire is recognized for that purpose. OPENING STATEMENT OF SENATOR PROXMIRE Senator PROXMIRE. Thank you. One line is italicized by the President in his economic report. It is this: "Only by holding the line on Federal spending will we be able to reduce the inflation rate further in 1973." Now, I think that the statement is correct.
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