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Home , Herb Kohl, Jim Talent, Russ Feingold, Tom Petri, William Proxmire

CHALLENGING IN 2004 LIKELY REPUBLICAN CONTENDERS

PHILIP J. MCDADE

ill Karl Rove suasion he utilized come calling so skillfully in 2002. Won the state And that means of ? And Rove, Bush's chief does he have U.S. political advisor and Senator Russ Feingold strategist nonpareil, in his eyesights? is almost certainly eyeing Wisconsin Rove and the man and Feingold. he works for — President George W. Wisconsin's Bush — rolled the dice junior senator has in the 2002 elections. succeeded in garner- They put the presi- ing an odd conflu- dent's political stature ence of accomplish- on the line in an effort ments — a politician to strengthen the who is respected and Republican's hold on admired by the elec- the U.S. House of torate, yet struggles Representatives and to win broad levels wrest control of the U.S. Senate away from the of its support. He first won election to the Democrats. Senate in 1992 with 53 percent of the vote, defeating incumbent GOP Senator Robert They came up big, picking up six seats in Kasten, in what turned out to be a good year the House (they now control the chamber by a nationally for Democrats. His margin fell in 229-206 margin) and gaining control of the 1998, when he garnered just 51 percent of the Senate. But the GOP's hold on the Senate is still vote against GOP Congressman Mark tenuous, with only a bare majority of 51 seats Neumann. on the Republicans' side. Any number of Bush initiatives — be it overhauling federal medical Part of Feingold's struggle in connecting programs, pushing for permanent cuts, or with a broad majority of the electorate can be getting judicial appointments approved — explained by his politics. He's quick to invoke could be derailed by wayward Republicans in Wisconsin's Progressive Party heritage, and the Senate who don't toe the partisan line. that often involves taking stands to the left of Wisconsin's political mainstream. For instance, So Bush, in his anticipated run for re-elec- Feingold in 1999 and in 2000 received perfect tion in 2004, is certain to be looking for seats in or near-perfect ratings from liberal groups the Senate that he can turn over to the Republican side with the same powers of per- Philip J. McDade is a Madison-based writer and former reporter for the .

Wisconsin Interest 15 such as the American Civil Liberties Union In addition, Feingold has cultivated a sort and Americans for Democratic Action. Those of cheapskate, man-of-the-people image akin rankings put him to the left of his fellow to that of former Democrat Wisconsin Senator Wisconsin Democrat in the Senate, . . He's one of the Senate's In the year 2000, the respected non-partisan least wealthy members, owns a heavily mort- National Journal ranked Feingold as voting the gaged home in a middle class Middleton liberal line on economic issues 94 percent of neighborhood, and writes checks for his chil- the time, compared to 61 percent for Kohl. drens' public college education — all facts he Following the Democrat Party's poor showing proudly owns up to. His practice of holding in the 2002 mid-term elections, Feingold said listening sessions every year in each of the problem with the party was that it had for- Wisconsin's 72 counties is reminiscent of the gotten its progressive, liberal traditions. old saw about Proxmire — that you couldn’t go to a Green Bay Packers game at Lambeau “We need to get back to some of the pro- Field without first having to shake Proxmire's gressive roots of the party,” he told the Green hand outside the stadium. Bay Press-Gazette shortly after the 2002 elec- tions. “My goal here is to work with . . . all the Feingold also has recent Wisconsin elec- other (Democratic) members of the Senate to toral history on his side. By most measures, have a stronger message, a message that the Wisconsin trends Democratic in statewide elec- average person can relate (to) that is more pop- tions. The recent successful candidacies of ulist in nature, so we don't try to win the elec- Democrats Jim Doyle for governor and Peg tion just through Washington talk.” Lautenschlager for attorney general proved once again that Republicans not named Yet Feingold also enjoys a certain level of face uphill battles in respect and admiration from Wisconsin voters, statewide elections. Feingold will also be run- tied in part to his often-quirky voting habits. ning in a presidential election year, which usu- He famously opposed the U.S. , the ally results in an upswing in the Democratic only senator to do so, on the grounds that it turnout in Wisconsin. The last Republican impinged on civil liberties. Those same con- presidential candidate to take Wisconsin was cerns made him one of the few senators to Ronald Reagan way back in 1984. (Even oppose Bush's Homeland Security Act. For the repeated visits to the state by Bush in 2000, and state that brought the U.S. Senate Joe the statewide Republican organization built up McCarthy, Feingold's civil libertarian concerns by Thompson, failed to deliver the state to the have a certain resonance. Similarly, his support GOP side.) for Bush's nomination of to attorney general — on the grounds that presi- Still, any list of vulnerable senators on the dents conservative or liberal ought to have Democrat's side in 2004 is likely to include broad discretion on cabinet appointments — Feingold. For starters, he's never garnered showed a willingness to cross the standard lib- more than 53 percent of the vote in either of his eral line drawn in the sand on such controver- two Senate campaigns — incumbents are usu- sial appointments. In addition, his longtime ally viewed as vulnerable if they consistently support for campaign finance reform, regard- poll below 55 percent. Secondly, Feingold's less of its potential constitutional problems, stance on campaign financing, and his lack of probably scores him points with voters in a personal wealth, can put him at a financial dis- state that's long embraced political reforms. advantage in a high profile, expensive race. And in some national quarters, Feingold is (This is a point of contention between Feingold viewed as one of the likely heirs to the pro- and Republicans. Feingold says he doesn't gressive, liberal mantle long worn by want outside or third-party groups spending Minnesota Senator Paul Wellstone, who died money on his behalf; Republicans accuse in a plane crash just days before the 2002 elec- Feingold of proclaiming his abhorrence to out- tions. side money with a wink and a nod, knowing

16 Winter 2003 full well that outside money will find its way he cleared the way for the successful candida- into the campaign.) cies of Saxby Chambliss and Elizabeth Dole. He did the same in , backing chal- Finally, the field of Senate candidates up lenger Jim Talent in his successful victory over for election in 2004 appears chock full of candi- incumbent . He exerted tremen- dates on both sides — Maryland's Barbara dous control over Minnesota's statewide races Milkulski, Connecticut's Christopher Dodd, in 2002, convincing Tom Pawlenty to run for Indiana's Evan Bayh, and Louisiana's John governor when he was contemplating a run for Breux among the Democrats, and Utah's the Senate, and backing one-time Democrat Robert Bennett, Kansas' , Norm Coleman for the Senate race. Both Oklahoma's , Alaska's Frank Pawlenty and Coleman won, in a state that has Murkowski, and Idaho's among long favored Democrats in statewide elections. the Republicans — who appear set for easy And Rove lays the groundwork early; plan- victories. ning for the 2002 mid-term elections began Sure, there are vulnerable incumbents — within months after Bush took office following Illinois' Peter Fitzgerald and Kentucky's Jim the controversial 2000 presidential election. Bunning on the Republican What's important to side, and Nevada's Harry remember when consid- Reid and Arkansas' ering Rove's tactics is that Blanche Lincoln on the political philosophy, or Democrat side. Rove looks to find a adherence to a certain set But the field of poten- of values, is a minor mat- tially vulnerable candi- candidate who “fits” the ter. Chambliss and Talent dates in 2004 appears to are stout conservatives, be a narrow one, meaning state and — most while Coleman was a for- that parties and interest importantly — is mer Democrat who took groups will be targeting issue with Bush's position the vulnerable seats with electable statewide. on issues such as trade both barrels. Any objec- with . Dole, a former tive list of the top half- Labor and Transportation dozen vulnerable Senators secretary, has long been up for election in 2004 is viewed skeptically by ele- sure to include Feingold. ments of the GOP's right- wing core. Rather, Rove looks to find a candi- So who is likely to challenge Feingold? date who “fits” the state and — most impor- Wisconsin Republicans generally try to avoid tantly — is electable statewide. He also prefers expensive, contentious primaries. They like to candidates who have experience in politics, save their money for the general election, and have withstood the trials of tough cam- knowing that Democrats enjoy an inherent paigns. (Dole ran for president in 2000, edge in statewide elections. They also don't Chambliss and Talent were former members of like to criticize each other, harking back to the U.S. House of Representatives, and Reagan's view that Republicans should avoid Coleman was the former mayor of St. Paul.) In criticizing each other if they want to become the words of Washington Post c o l u m n i s t the country's majority party. George Will, the ideal Republican candidates But the Rove tactic for targeted races is to are “experienced public officials . . . who are so pick out one person, clear the field of other well-defined in the state's mind that they are intra-party challengers, and focus attention insulated from Democrats' attempts to define and resources on the favored candidate. He them with negative advertising.” did this in Georgia and North Carolina, where

Wisconsin Interest 17 Who might Rove have in mind for they doubt he would return to public life. Wisconsin? Possible candidates fit into several Welch, on the other hand, now sits in the categories: majority in the Wisconsin Senate. But he's been bypassed for plum assignments, such as co- The Unlikely Ones chairman of the budget-writing Joint Finance If Rove turns to the state's congressional Committee, which would give him the kind of delegation, he'll likely bypass GOP high profile needed for another run. Representatives and James McCallum, although only 52 and in Sensenbrenner. Both are wealthy individuals extremely good health (one rap on him was who could throw a lot of money at a statewide that he played too much basketball at the campaign. And both are well known in their expense of old-fashioned politicking), gener- home bases — suburban for ates little enthusiasm among Republicans. He's Sensenbrenner and the lower Fox Valley for the one, after all (bad economy or not), who Petri. lost the governorship after 16 years of GOP But Petri and Sensenbrenner are unlikely control, Republicans reason. And he's never for three major reasons. Both are presumably generated much enthusiasm from the on the tail ends of their congressional careers; Republican faithful. “He's served his time,” Petri is 62 and Sensenbrenner turns 60 this said one unnamed GOP wag after his loss in year. Both are ensconced in safe seats — the the 2002 governor's race. “He's done.” two safest for Republicans in the state — and Two Wild-Cards Named Scott thus haven't run the vigorous, back-and-forth campaign that any race against Feingold will One Scott gave up one of the most promis- surely become. And both have real seniority in ing congressional careers in Wisconsin. The Congress — Sensenbrenner chairs the House other turned heads by winning an election in Judiciary Committee, and Petri chairs the high- Milwaukee County, home to Socialist mayors ways subcommittee of the House and the state's Democratic base. Transportation and Infrastructure Committee. Former television anchor Scott Klug of Those assignments come with significant perks Madison won a surprise election to the House and responsibilities. Petri and Sensenbrenner in 1990, upsetting 32-year veteran Robert are unlikely to feel the need or pull to head Kastenmeier. He then easily won three more over to the upper chamber. terms in the House, and seemed primed for a The Also-Rans long career there. Republicans also openly talked about him advancing to either the A few well-known Republicans have Senate or the governor's seat. He was the kind already run a statewide race for Senate. of candidate that parties love — smart, good Neumann came within 38,000 votes of topping on the stump, comfortable and familiar with Feingold in 1998. State Senator Robert Welch television, and able to distill a campaign mes- lost to Kohl in 1994, garnering 41 percent of the sage into digestible sound bites. Plus, he hailed vote. And former Governor Scott McCallum from Madison, and political pros love nothing ran against William Proxmire in 1982, losing more than candidates who can eat into the by a near 2-to-1 margin. opposition party's base — in Klug's case, Neumann and Welch are well-liked by the Madison and the rest of Democrat-leaning conservative wing of the party for their views Dane County. on , cutting government spending, and But Klug gave it all up in 1998, stepping abortion. But both have become marginalized. aside to spend more time with his family. He Neumann — a successful businessman before bought a magazine publishing company in his foray into politics — has dropped out of rural Dane County, and still makes the occa- the political scene altogether since his loss four sional pitch for Wisconsin Republican candi- years ago to Feingold. Republicans have said

18 Winter 2003 dates. He's still a visible presence in Madison, together a campaign. He, too, makes for an although not in an overtly political way. attractive statewide candidate, because his base cuts into the Democratic stronghold of Political pros say it’s often hard to come Milwaukee County. Still, current speculation back into politics after being out of the lime- has Walker solidifying his hold on the county light for more than a few years. And Klug has executive's spot by seeking re-election to the never made any secret of his unwillingness to post in 2004. become a permanent politician. Still, such is the draw of Klug and his potential appeal that The Up-and-Comers his name comes up almost any time In 1998, Wisconsin voters elected two new Republicans and political observers speculate Republican faces to Congress — Janesville's about statewide candidates for the GOP. and Green Bay's Mark Green. The Like Klug, Wauwatosa's Scott Walker two Republicans, many in the party suggest, seemingly came out of nowhere to stake a are the party's best candidates for taking on a claim as one of the GOP's most attractive statewide race and winning. potential statewide candi- Both are young — dates. Barely out of col- Ryan is 32, and Green is lege when elected to the 42. Both are sharp, articu- state Assembly in 1993, late politicians with a Walker carved out a firm grasp of policy steady legislative career Both Ryan and Green nuances and political as one of the young are almost always themes that appeal to vot- Republican stalwarts that ers. Ryan cut his political helped Thompson and mentioned — by people teeth in Washington, former Assembly Speaker D.C., working for the Scott Jensen wrest control in both parties — as likes of William Bennett of the lower chamber and Kasten before return- from the Democrats. potential statewide ing to his Janesville home Then, when a pension candidates. in 1998 to run for scandal roiled Milwaukee Congress. Green was County politics, Walker elected to the Wisconsin jumped at the opportuni- Assembly in 1992, and ty. He got behind an quickly rose to become enormously successful recall petition effort one of the Republican Assembly's chief strate- that ousted several county board members and gists. In 1998, he ran for Congress, and became led to the forced resignation of County the only Republican that year to defeat an Executive Thomas Ament. Walker jumped into incumbent Democratic congressman when he the 2002 race for county executive after some knocked off Representative Jay Johnson. better-known Milwaukee politicians passed on Both Ryan and Green are almost always it. Few expected Walker to win, given his mentioned — by people in both parties — as standing as a Republican — and a staunchly potential statewide candidates. Green, a conservative one at that — in a heavily lawyer, passed on running for Wisconsin attor- Democratic county. But Walker won going ney general in 2002. But Green's camp, and away, parlaying a reformist message with party insiders, suggest Green may be a more pledges to not raise taxes and keep the lid on likely candidate for a Wisconsin-based office. county spending. He has three young children, and some sug- Walker, like Klug, is an articulate politi- gest he leans toward spending more time with cian, comfortable with the demands of televi- his family in Wisconsin, and less as a commut- sion and talk radio, who knows how to put ing congressman.

Wisconsin Interest 19 Ryan, however, learned his politics in the the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel shortly after 's capital, and has a Jack Kemp-like 2002 elections about the talk surrounding the enthusiasm in him for the wonky policy work- former popular governor's plans. ings of Washington. Moving over to the Senate Maybe It's No One Notable would be the next, natural progression for the Republican Ryan. Success in politics, wags like to say, is as much about timing as anything else. Just ask The Elephant in the Room Jim Doyle, who bided his time as attorney gen- Of course, no discussion of potential eral, waited for Thompson to leave for statewide candidates for office would be com- Washington, ran when the economy turned plete with mentioning Tommy G. Thompson. sour, and ended up governor. Two years into his stint as Secretary of Health Many in the GOP suggest 2006 would be and Human Services, Thompson in many the ideal time for Republicans to make their ways remains the state's dominant political move. Some predict the state's budget deficit force. will force Doyle to make unpopular spending He's better known than any politician in cuts and thus be weakened as a candidate up the state, still admired and well liked, and is for re-election. And then there is Kohl, who is known for keeping tabs on matters back home. up for election in 2006. He'll be 71 when his He even came back to Wisconsin in the waning term comes up, and will have served three days of the 2002 election, and campaigned for terms. Does he have the energy and drive for two state Senate candidates hoping to unseat another term? Any departure by the big- incumbents. Both won, giving control of the spending Kohl will almost certainly result in state Senate to Republicans, and proving to an aggressive Republican bid for the seat. many that Thompson still had the touch. He's Republicans thinking of running for the Senate just about the only politician in Wisconsin who may think it wiser to hold off on challenging could walk through any VFW hall, bowling Feingold and take their chances on a possibly alley, or factory floor in the state and not have vacant Kohl seat. people wonder “Who's this guy?” Thompson's possible interest in the race Most of the immediate speculation follow- may also be tempered by ambitious plans the ing the 2002 election centered on Thompson Bush Administration has for major health-care seeking his governor's seat again in 2006 reforms. If Bush pushes a health-care initiative, against former rival Jim Doyle. But in many he'd likely want Thompson around for it, respects, Thompson would make an ideal rather than see him leave midstream for an Senate candidate. After two years fighting the extended Senate campaign back home. bureaucratic battles as a cabinet secretary, he's And for the likes of Ryan and Green, there well versed in how Washington works. He'd is considerable risk in giving up promising — have instant access to money, having orga- and safe, given the political makeup of their nized a premier fundraising operation in districts — congressional careers, particularly Wisconsin. He'd probably get the blessing of as members of the majority party. A race Bush, who might need someone of against Feingold is no guaranteed victory; Thompson's stature if the Republicans really their current congressional seats all but are. want to go after Feingold. And he would fit Ryan in particular has secured a high-profile columnist Will's articulation of the ideal GOP seat on the House's Ways and Means candidate — someone so well known that Committee. attempts to define him negatively would inevitably fail. “People ask me that stuff all the time,” Ryan said to the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel Would he? “(I)t's people back home specu- recently, dismissing speculation about his lating,” Thompson spokesman Tony Jewel told future plans. “I want to get to work.”

20 Winter 2003