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Myanmar Economic Bulletin Vol.2, No Myanmar Economic Bulletin Vol.2, No. 1 Responsibility for the opinions and facts presented in the Myanmar Economic Bulletin (MEB) rests exclusively with individual authors. Their interpretations do not necessarily reflect the views of the editorial committee, the sponsors of the MEB, or the Myanmar Development Institute. www.mdi.org.mm https://twitter.com/mdi_myanmar https://www.facebook.com/mdimyanmar Published by the Myanmar Development Institute TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES ..................................................................................................................... 6 LIST OF FIGURES .................................................................................................................. 7 ACRONYMS .............................................................................................................................. 9 INTRODUCTORY REMARKS.................................................................................. 13 Sean Turnell MYANMAR’S PROSPECT FOR DEEPENING GVC PARTICIPATION ................ 15 Aung Hein SUMMARY ................................................................................................................................. 15 1.1 INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................. 16 1.2 MEASURING TRADE AND NATIONAL COMPETITIVENESS IN THE AGE OF GVCS ............................................................................................................................... 17 1.3 GVCS WITH FOCUS ON ASIA AND CHINA ............................................................. 20 1.4 MYANMAR’S PROSPECTS FOR DEEPENING THE GVC PARTICIPATION .. 30 1.5 FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT TRENDS IN MYANMAR …………………... 36 1.6 LIMITATIONS...………………………………......….……..….…………………..…. ........... 38 1.7 CONCLUSION: POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS………………………………........ 39 THE EFFECT OF FISCAL CONSOLIDATION ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN MYANMAR .......................................................................................................... 43 Khin Maung Nyunt SUMMARY ..................................................................................................................... 43 2.1 INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................. 44 2.2 SOME OF THE EXISTING LITERATURE .................................................................. 44 2.3 FISCAL PERFORMANCE IN MYANMAR………………………………………….... ... 46 2.4 EMPIRICAL MODEL OF DEBT SUSTAINABILITY AND A GROWTH MODEL OF MYANMAR ................................................................................................... 49 2.5 TESTING FOR STATIONARITY IN TIME-SERIES AND COINTEGRATION . 51 2.6 OTHER ROBUSTNESS CHECKS FOR VARIABLES ………………...…………...… 53 2.7 FINDINGS ........................................................................................................................... 54 2.8 CONCLUSION AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS .......................................... 56 MYANMAR ECONOMIC BULLETIN 2019 3 AGRICULTURAL FINANCE IN MYANMAR AND MYANMA AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT BANK REFORM .......................................... 61 Om Ki SUMMARY .................................................................................................................. 61 3.1 CONTEXTUAL BACKGROUND ................................................................................... 62 3.2 AGRICULTURE FINANCE THROUGH A HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE ........ 63 3.3 CALLS FOR MADB REFORM ....................................................................................... 65 3.4 LESSONS FROM GLOBAL EXPERIENCE ................................................................ 69 3.5 THAILAND: BANK FOR AGRICULTURE AND AGRICULTURAL COOPERATION ………………………………………………….…………………...... .......... 69 3.6 MEXICO: FINANCIERA RURAL ………….....………………………………………. ...... 70 3.7 POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS AND CONCLUDING REMARKS ………………. 71 FINANCING THE YANGON EXPRESSWAY PROJECT: EXPLORING POTENTIAL FINANCING SCHEME AND POLICY INSTRUMENTS TO ENCOURAGE LOCAL PRIVATE BANK’S PARTICIPATION ............................... 77 Wookeun Ken Yoon SUMMARY ................................................................................................................................. 77 4.1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................... 78 4.2 FINANCING SCHEMES FOR INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS .......................... 79 4.2.1 DEGREE OF GOVERNMENTAL INVOLVEMENT .............................. 79 4.2.2 DEGREE OF SPONSOR COMPANY’S INVOLVEMENT ..................... 80 4.2.3 FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS IN INFRASTRUCTURE FINANCE .. 82 4.3 INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS USING PF SCHEMES ......................................... 86 4.3.1 INDONESIA: SARULLA GEOTHERMAL POWER PLANT PROJECT (2014) .......................................................................................... 86 4.3.2 KOREA: INCHEON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT EXPRESSWAY PROJECT (1995) .......................................................................................... 89 4.3.3 LAOS: NAM THEUN 2 HYDROPOWER PROJECT (2004) ............ 92 4.3.4 POLICY IMPLICATIONS ............................................................................. 96 4.4 POTENTIAL FINANCING SCHEME FOR THE YANGON EXPRESSWAY PROJECT .............................................................................................................................. 98 4 MYANMAR ECONOMIC BULLETIN 2019 4.4.1 YANGON EXPRESSWAY PROJECT .......................................................... 98 4.4.2 POTENTIAL FINANCING SCHEME ........................................................ 101 4.4.3 RISK MITIGATION: POLICY SUPPORT ................................................ 110 4.5 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS ............................................................ 120 USING INCLUSIVE INFRASTRUCTURE TO PROMOTE PRO-POOR GROWTH IN SPATIAL DEVELOPMENT INITIATIVES ......................................... 125 Anders Kirstein Møller SUMMARY ................................................................................................................................. 125 5.1 INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................. 125 5.2 ECONOMIC, SOCIAL AND ENTREPRENEURIAL INFRASTRUCTURE ........ 126 5.3 LARGE-SCALE INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS .................................................... 128 5.4 INTERNATIONAL EXAMPLES .................................................................................... 132 5.5 FINANCING INCLUSIVE INFRASTRUCTURE …..…………..……………………. .. 133 5.6 POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS AND CONCLUSION ….……...…...…………..... 134 EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF HOW REMITTANCES IMPACT ON HOUSEHOLD EXPENDITURES IN MYANMAR .................................................. 139 Myat Su Tin SUMMARY ................................................................................................................................. 139 6.1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................... 140 6.2 DATA AND METHODOLOGY ........................................................................................ 141 6.3 RESULTS ............................................................................................................................. 146 6.4 CONCLUSION ..................................................................................................................... 147 FIRST PERSON AN INTERVIEW WITH EMERITUS PROFESSOR RONALD FINDLAY .......... 151 Sean Turnell MYANMAR ECONOMIC BULLETIN 2019 5 List of Tables Table 2.1: Fiscal performance indicators in Myanmar Table 2.2: Phillips-Perron unit root test results Table 2.3: The Johansen cointegration test results using maximum eigenvalue Table 2.4: The model results under three models Table 3.1: History and supervision of MADB over the past 66 years (1953-2019) Table 3.2: Overview of seasonal crop loans (Maturity of less than 12 months) Table 3.3: Summary of subsidised loan portfolio over the past decade (2009-2018) Table 4.1: Comparison between PF and CF Table 4.2: Financing sources for infrastructure projects Table 4.3: Guarantees provided by MLAs and ECAs in the NT2 project (US$ mil.) Table 4.4: Policy tools implemented in the Sarulla GPP project, the IIAE project and the NT2 project Table 4.5: The yangon expressway project Table 4.6: Potential risk profiles of the YEX project Table 4.8: Policy tools to mitigate risks and incentivize investors Table 4.7: Detailed financing scheme and the role of each investor Table 4.9: Three policy options to address cost (revenue) risk Korea (2010) Table 4.10: Demand forecast and fiscal support in five selective roads in Table 4.12: Potential policy options to attract local private FIs Table 4.11: Benefits of the WBG’s guarantee products Table 6.1: Summary statistics of all households, remittance receiving households and non-remittance receiving households Table 6.2: Multiple linear regression results using state and region fixed effect 6 MYANMAR ECONOMIC BULLETIN 2019 List of Figures Figure 1.1: Changes in the foreign value-added shares of the GVC outputs in manufacture (1995-2008) Figure 1.2: Shares of vertical trading in selected countries (2004), % of total gross exports Figure 1.3: Foreign and domestic content shares in exports of countries (2004) Figure 1.4: Patterns of GVC participation in countries (2004), % of total gross
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