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Hearings Joint Economic Committee Congress of The TYF THE 1972 MIDYEAR REVIEW OF THE ECONOMY HEARINGS BEFORE THE JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES NINETY-SECOND CONGRESS SECOND SESSION JULY 24, 25, 26, AND 27, 1972 Printed for the use of the Joint Economic Committee U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE 83-449 WASHINGTON : 1972 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office Washington, D.C. 20402 -Price 70 cents JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE (Created pursuant to sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) WILLIAM PROXMIRE, Wisconsin, Chairman WRIGHT PATMAN, Texas, Vice Chairman SENATE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES JOHN SPARKMAN, Alabama RICHARD BOLLING, Missouri J. W. FULBRIGHT, Arkansas HALE BOGGS, Louisiana ABRAHAM RIBICOFF, Connecticut HENRY S. REUSS, Wisconsin HUBERT H. HUMPHREY, Minnesota MARTHA W..GRIFFITHS, Michigan LLOYD M. BENTSEN, JR., Texas WILLIAM S. MOORHEAD. Pennsylvania JACOB KEJAVITS, New York WILLIAM B. WIDNALL, New Jersey JACK MILLER, Iowa BARBER B. CONABLE, JR., New York CHARLES H. PERCY, Illinois CLARENCE J. BROWN, Ohio JAMES B. PEARSON, Kansas BEN B. BLACKBURN, Georgia JOHN R. STARK, Executive Director LOUGHLIN F. McHUGGH, Senior Economist ECONOMISTS Lucy A. FALCONE Ross F. HAACMAHEK JERRY J. JASINOWSI;i JOEiN R. KARLIK RICHARD F. KAUFMAN COURTENAY M. SLATER MINORITY LESLIE J. BANDER GEORGE D. KRUMBHAAER, Jr. (Counsel) WALTER B. LAESSIG (Counsel) (II) CONTENTS WITNESSES AND STATEMENTS MONDAY, JULY 24, 1972 Proxmire, HIon. William, chairman of the Joint Economic Committee: Page Opening statement -1 Stein, Hon. Herbert, Chairman, Council of Economic Advisers, accom- panied by Ezra Solomon and Marina v.N. Whitman, members- 3 TUESDAY, JULY 23, 1972 Proxmire, Hon. William, chairman of the Joint Economic Committee: Opening statement -41 Shultz, Hon. George P., Secretary, Department of the Treasury -43 Weinberger, Hon. Caspilr W., Director, Office of Management and Budget, accompanied by Dale McOmber, Deputy, Budget Review Division--- 48 WEDNESDAY, JULY 26, 1972 Proxmire, Hon. William, chairman of the Joint Economic Committee: Opening statement -99 Burns, Hon. Arthur F., Chairman, Board of Governors, Federal Reserve System -100 THURSDAY, JULY 27, 1972 Proxmire, Hon. William, chairman of the Joint Economic Committee: Opening statement -133 Galbraith, John Kenneth, Paul M. Warburg Professor of Economics, Harvard University -138 Heller, Walter W., Regent's Professor of Economics, University of Minnesota --- 142 Samuelson, Paul A., professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology ----------------------------- 152 SUBMISSIONS FOR THE RECORD MONDAY, JULY 24, 1972 Reuss, Hon. Henry S.: Article entitled "Budget Drifting Out of Control, Nixon Orders Cutback for 1974," by Hobart Rowen, from the Washington Post, July 23, 1972- 23 Stein, Hon. Herbert, et al.: Prepared statement -_-- - 9 TUESDAY, JULY 2.5, 1972 Shultz, Hon. George P.: Prepared statement -46 Response to additional written questions posed by Senator Javits- .59 Weinberger, Hon. Caspar W., et al.: Congressional changes in budget requests -73 Article entitled "Spending Paradox Baffles Congress," by Edwin L. Dale, Jr., from the New York Times, August 6, 1972 -77 (III) IV WEDNESDAY, JULY 26, 1972 Burns, Hon. Arthur F.: Excerpts from the Joint Economic Committee's hearing of July 23, Page 1970, on the state of the economy at midyear -122 Clarification of colloquy with Chairman Proxmire regarding the Water- gate incident -131 THURSDAY, JULY 27, 1972 Cooperative League of the USA: Statement of, by Stanley W. Drever, president -193 IHeller, Walter W.: Article entitled "Needed Now: 'Jobs Now,' " by Walter W. IHeller, from the New York Times, April 7, 1972 -143 Prepared statement -147 Response to Senator Javit's request to supply for the record the direction in which we need to move in planning for what taxes our country needs -164 Response to Chairman Proxmire's request to supply for the record some of the structural reforms essential to better the tradeoff between unemployment and inflation -186 Javits, Hon. Jacob K.: Press release from the office of Senator Proxmire, dated June 19, 1972. 179 Press release from the office of Senator Proxmire, dated June 20, 1972 179 Press release from the Federal Reserve, dated June 21, 1972, with attachments- 180 Samuelson, Paul A.: Prepared statement -155 THE 1972 MIDYEAR REVIEW OF THE ECONOMY MONDAY, JULY 24, 1972 CONGRESS OF THIE UNITED STATES, JOINT EcoN-omlc COMMITTEE. Vashington, D.C. The committee met, pursuant to notice, at 10 a.m., in room 1202, New Senate Office Buildin'g, Hon. William Proxmire (chairman of the committee) presiding,. Present: Senators ProXiiiie and Javits; and Representatives Reuss and Conable. Also present: John R. Stark, executive director; Loughlin F. Mc- Hugh, senior economist; John R. Karlik, Richard F. Kaufman, and Courtenay M. Slater, economists: Lucy A. Falcone and Jerry J. Jasi- nowski, research economists; George D. Krumblhaar, Jr., and Walter B. Laessig, minority counsels; and Leslie J. Bander, minority economist. OPENING STATEME11ANT OF CITAIRMAIN PROXMrIRE Chairman PROXNJIME. The committee will come to order. This morning the Joint Economic Committee begins its 1972 mid- Year review of the economy. We welcome as our first witnesses Mr. Her- bert Stein, Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, and Mr. Ezra Solomon and Mrs. Marina Whitman, members of the council. For the first time in a long time, we are conveningI a hearing on the economic outlook at a time when there is some good news to discuss. The real value of the gross national product increased at an annual rate of 8.9 percent in the second quarter, and this vigorous rate of g rowth was accompanied by a moderation of the rate of inflation. Mr. Stein. I know you must be grateful to this committee for pro- viding you with a forum this morning. This hearing may not go down in history as one of the great moments of the Christian era. Nonethe- less, it is the first time in the history of the Nixon administration that you have been able to come before us and report some really good news about the economy. Since this may well be the first, last, and only time when this administration will have good news to report. I intend to yield to you very shortly so that you can describe for us all the im- provements which have taken place in the economy in recent months. Before yielding, however, I awant to make two points which I think are important. First, if things had not been allowed to get so bad in the first place. they could not have improved so much in the past few months. If GNP had not fallen $80 billion below its potential, it would not now be growing at a 9-percent annual rate. (1) 2 If unemployment had not risen to 6 percent, we would not be hailing 5.7 percent as an improvement. If the inflation rate had not been allowed to go to 61/2 percent, we would not now be so eagerly scanning each price indicator that comes along for signs of improvement. My second point is that we still have a long, long way to go before we reach what can reasonablv be regarded as a satisfactory economic situation. There are still almost 5 million unemployed, plus 21/2 million working involuntary part time, plus over 800,000 discouraged workers who have given up looking for a job. I have yet to see a reliable predic- tionI that we will get the unemployment rate down to 4 percent any time in the next 2 years. Indeed, as pointed out in the recent OECD report on the U.S. economy, it will take a sustained real growth rate of over 6 percent to bring us to the 4-percent unemployment level by midl-1975. As I have said over and over, 4 percent unemployment is not good enough. It would be an appropriate interim target at the present time. And it happens to be the number we use to calculate what we euphem- istically call "GNP potential" and the "full employment budget." As a longer term objective, we should not settle for an unemployment rate higher than 3 percent. and this committee is now undertaking studies which we hope will show that there are good possibilities for getting imemployment even lower-perhaps to 2 percent. All our problems are not on the employment front. Inflation is still a very serious problem. Despite the control program, the whole- sale price index has risen at a 5-percent rate over the past 3 months. This cannot help but mean new pressure on consumer prices in the months ahead. We remain faced with the fundamental problem of whether, and, if so, when and how to get rid of the present price and wage controls. In considering this question. it must be borne in mind that the collec- tive bargaining calendar will be far heavier in 1973 than it is in 1972. It must be realized, that while there is an enormous amount of slack in the economy as a whole, there may be serious inflationary supply shortages in particular markets, suclh as lumber, leather, and beef. It must be remembered that there have been no dramatic breakthroughs toward a more efficiently structured economy which would have less inflationary bias-there have been no major reductions in import barriers, no great improvements in our techniques for manpower train- ing and job placement, no sweeping reforms of the Government pro- curement process. The good economic ne-ws in the second quarter is important, but it has brought us only a very little way toward even our shorter run ob- jectives for the economy. Mr. Stein. I aim somewhat less optimistic than you appear to be over the economic outlook for the rest of this year and for 1973. In a little while, I want to discuss with you the pros- pects for the different sectors of the economy.
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