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Annual Report of the Council of Economic Advisers 1972

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Annual Report of the Council of Economic Advisers 1972 THE ANNUAL REPORT OF THE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis LETTER OF TRANSMITTAL COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS, Washington, D.C., January 24,1972. THE PRESIDENT : SIR: The Council of Economic Advisers herewith submits its Annual Report, January 1972, in accordance with Section 4(c) (2) of the Employ- ment Act of 1946. Respectfully, HERBERT STEIN, Chairman. f £-D Lo-u-^ EZRA SOLOMON. 11 Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis CONTENTS Page Economic Review and Prospect—A Summary 19 The Longer View 19 Urgent Problems of 1971 20 Early Performance in 1971 21 The New Economic Policy 22 First Results 24 Outlook for 1972 25 Progress in the World Economy 27 CHAPTER 1. PERFORMANCE AND POLICY TO MID-AUGUST 29 Demand, Output, and the Labor Market 30 Demand Patterns 30 Labor Market 35 Prices and Costs 40 Prices 41 Compensation and Wages 45 Productivity and Labor Costs 51 Corporate Costs and Prices 51 Incomes in Agriculture 55 Financial Policy and Financial Markets 56 Monetary Policy 56 Interest Rates 59 Fiscal Policy to August 15 64 The New Economic Policy 65 Where We Stood on August 15 65 The August 15 Decisions 67 Fiscal Elements in the New Economic Policy 69 CHAPTER 2. INFLATION CONTROL UNDER THE ECONOMIC STABILI- ZATION ACT 73 The Construction Program 74 August 15: The Wage-Price Freeze 75 Phase II: Issues and Organization 82 Price Commission and Pay Board Standards 88 Phase II Operations 92 Extension of the Stabilization Authority 95 Assessment 95 451-6880—72 2 13 Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Page CHAPTER 3. OUTLOOK AND POLICY 101 Developments in the Fourth Quarter of 1971 102 The Outlook for 1972 103 Prices and Price-Wage Policy 107 Employment and Unemployment 108 Inflation and Unemployment in the Long Run Ill The Control of Demand Ill Views of the Inflation and Unemployment Problem 112 Characteristics of the Labor Force 113 CHAPTER 4. EFFECTIVE USE OF RESOURCES 117 National Commission on Productivity 117 Energy 118 Environmental Quality 122 Research and Development 125 Rationale for Government Involvement 126 Recent Developments 128 Expanded Support for R&D 130 Surface Freight Transportation 130 Regulatory Modernization Act of 1971 133 Factors Affecting the Transition 134 Rail Passenger Service 135 Health and Medical Care 135 Trends in Health Indicators in the United States 138 Financing Medical Care 138 National Health Insurance Proposals 140 CHAPTER 5. THE UNITED STATES AND THE WORLD ECONOMY 142 The Recognition of Disequilibrium 143 Reactions to the U.S. Deficit 146 August 15 148 Balance-of-Payments Analysis 149 Balance on Goods, Services, and Remittances 149 Cyclically Adjusted Balances 152 The Capital Accounts 153 Balance on Current Account and Long-Term Capital ... 154 The Size of the Required Correction 154 Developments After August 15 155 Alternative Routes to Realignment 155 Realignment Through Floating 156 Reluctance to Revalue Against the Dollar 159 Reluctance to Revalue Against Other Currencies 159 Reluctance to Correct by Revaluation Alone 160 Final Negotiations on Exchange Rate Realignment 161 14 Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis CHAPTER 5. THE UNITED STATES AND THE WORLD ECONOMY—Con. Page International Monetary Reform 161 Trade Policy Developments in 1971 164 Export Policy 166 Easing the Adjustment to Imports 168 Agricultural Trade 170 East-West Trade 172 Generalized Preferences for Exports of Developing Countries 173 A Positive Program for Freer Trade 173 APPENDIXES: A. Report to the President on the Activities of the Council of Economic Advisers During 1971 177 B. Statistical Tables Relating to Income, Employment, and Production 189 List of Tables and Charts Tables 1. Changes in Gross National Product in Current and Constant Dollars, 1968 III to 1971 III 31 2. Changes in Personal Income, Taxes, and Disposable Income, 1967 III to 1971 III 32 3. Changes in the Working-Age Population, Armed Forces, and Labor Force, 1962 to 1971 III 35 4. Employment Attributable to Defense Expenditures and Per- sonnel Requirements, 1965 and 1968-71 38 5. Selected Unemployment Rates, 1969 IV-1971 IV 38 6. Changes in Consumer Prices for All Items and All Items Less Food and Mortgage Interest, December 1968 to August 1971 43 7. Alternative Measures of Price Changes for Gross National Product and Gross Private Product, 1968 I to 1971 IV. ... 45 8. Rates of Increase of Hourly Compensation During Expansions and Recessions, 1947 IV to 1970 IV 48 9. Changes in Adjusted Average Hourly Earnings of Private Nonfarm Production or Nonsupervisory Workers, 1968 III to 1971 III 49 10. Wage Rate Increases in Major Collective Bargaining Agree- ments, 1969-71 49 11. Rise of White-Collar Salaries, Selected Occupations in Private Industry, 1961 to 1971 50 12. Changes in Compensation, Productivity, and Labor Costs in the Private Nonfarm Economy, 1962 to 1971 III 53 13. Changes in Prices, Costs, and Profits Per Unit of Output for Nonfinancial Corporations, 1966 III to 1971 III 54 15 Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis List of Tables and Charts—Continued Tables—Continued Page 14. Distribution of Gross Product Originating in Nonfinancial Corporations, 1947-71 55 15. Amount and Composition of Individuals' Saving, 1968-1971 III 58 16. Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business, 1968-1971 III 59 17. Interest Rates, 1970-71 60 18. Flows of Savings Deposits Through Savings Institutions, 1968-1971 III 62 19. Effect on Fiscal Year 1972 Budget of Tax and Expenditure Changes in New Economic Policy 71 20. Changes in Consumer Prices, Selected Months, 1971 81 21. Changes in Consumer Prices, Selected Items, October to November 1971 81 22. Changes in Wholesale Industrial Commodity Prices, Selected Months, 1971 82 23. Required Reporting of Price and Wage Increases 87 24. Employment Status of Male Vietnam Era Veterans and Non- veterans 20-29 Years of Age, Fourth Quarter, 1969-71.... 109 25. Hypothetical Unemployment Rates Based on 1956 Unemploy- ment Rates and Distribution of Civilian Labor Force, by Age and Sex: Selected Years, 1956-71, and Projections, 1985 115 26. Distribution of Funds for Research and Development, by Fund- ing Source and Performer, Calendar Year 1971 125 27. Distribution of Federal Expenditures for Research and Devel- opment by Major Function, Fiscal Years 1960, 1965, and 1971 129 28. Return on Stockholders' Equity for Class I Railroads, Class I Motor Carriers, Classes A and B Inland and Coastal Water Carriers, and All Manufacturing Corporations, 1967-70. ... 132 29. Freight Ton-Miles Shipped by Type of Carrier, Selected Years, 1960-70 133 30. Measures of Life Expectancy and Mortality in the United States and Other Countries in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Various Years, 1960-69. 137 31. Changes in Exchange Rates of Major Currencies Against the Dollar, January 1, 1971 to December 31, 1971 143 32. Official Reserves, by Country, 1968-71 146 33. U.S. Balance of Payments, 1960-71 150 34. Changes in U.S. Relative Cost and Price Position, 1961-71. 152 16 Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis List of Tables and Charts—Continued Charts page 1. Changes in GNP and Prices, and the Unemployment Rate... 23 2. Labor Force, Employment, and Armed Forces 36 3. Unemployment Rates, 1971 39 4. Changes in Consumer Prices 42 5. Changes in Wholesale Prices 44 6. Changes in Selected Price Measures 46 7. Changes in Compensation, Productivity, Labor Costs, and Prices (Private Nonfarm Sector) 52 8. Interest Rates 61 9. Post-Freeze Organization 86 10. Foreign Exchange Rates 157 17 Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Review and Prospect A Summary Rarely has economic policy made so much news as in 1971. The freeze and Phase II, closing the gold window and prospective devaluation, domestic and international meetings at Camp David, the Azores, the Smithsonian In- stitution, and Bermuda, Key Biscayne, and San Clemente—all were con- tinuing headline stories. These dramatic events were part of the process of dealing with problems in the forefront of public attention—inflation, unem- ployment, the international position of the U.S. economy. These policies and their sequels and consequences will be the economic news of 1972. Most of this report is devoted to them. But this inevitable con- centration on the news, whether in the press or in this report, can give a mis- leading impression of what is happening. The most important part of what is happening, at least in the field of economics, is not what was new last year or what will be new this year, but what is continuing. THE LONGER VIEW Before turning to the news it is worthwhile to point out some of the facts that are not news. The simplest and most far reaching is that total output per capita in 1971 was higher in the United States than anywhere else in the world. Output per worker, per hour of work and—as far as can be esti- mated—per unit of all resources were also the highest in the world. In all of these dimensions the economy continued to progress in 1971. In all of them the figures showed record highs last year. Labor productivity—output per hour of work—rose more rapidly than it had for several years.
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