UNITED NATIONS NATIONS UNIES
THE SECRETARY-GENERAL
FOREWORD TO BOOK ON THE 1995 NPT REVIEW AND EXTENSION CONFERENCE (TO BE PUBLISHED BY THE UN INSTITUTE FOR DISARMAMENT RESEARCH) November 2004
On 24 January 1946, the United Nations General Assembly adopted its first resolution, which called for the elimination of all atomic weapons and "all other major weapons adaptable to mass destruction." On 5 March 1970, in a major step towards that goal, the Treaty on the Non- Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons established a strong legal norm against the international spread of nuclear weapons, while also obliging all its States Parties to pursue negotiations hi good faith on nuclear disarmament.
Today, however, according to most published estimates, tens of thousands of nuclear weapons remain in arsenals around the world. Some of the parties to the NPT have not fully complied with their obligations, and one party has declared its withdrawal from the Treaty. Moreover, United Nations disarmament bodies such as the Conference on Disarmament, the Disarmament Commission and the First Committee of the General Assembly remain deeply divided on many key issues. These and other developments, should they persist, will further set back hopes for new progress in achieving the disarmament and non-proliferation objectives of the 'NPT regime.
This troubling state of affairs has given rise to many questions about the past and future of the NPT. Why was it decided to extend the Treaty indefinitely in 1995? What commitments made that extension possible? Have they been upheld? What new commitments were made at the 2000 NPT Review Conference, and have they been implemented? As we look ahead to the 2005 Review Conference, what do we need to do to improve efforts to eliminate nuclear ;'' ' ' weapons stockpiles and control the global proliferation of nuclear weapons:?" ;,' i!; MAY 2 6 ?OC5 While this book does not seek to offer an official "UN account" of the events it surveys, it draws instead upon personal experience and emerges as both timely and authoritative. Its author, Jayantha Dhanapala, served with distinction as the United Nations Under-Secretary- General for Disarmament Affairs from 1998 to 2003. This experience, coupled with his service as President of the 1995 NPT Review and Extension Conference, uniquely qualifies him to address these challenging questions. His analysis and his distinct points of view, rooted in a strong commitment to multilateral cooperation and the importance of treaty compliance, deserve the close attention of all who seek a safer, more secure world for all. Note to the Secretary-General Through Mr. Riza Ref: Mr. Dhanapala's forthcoming book on the 1995 NPT Review & Extension Conference
You asked for my views on whether you should contribute a foreword as he requests. I share your inclination to say yes, especially as it is to be published by
UNIDIR\ . As a matter of principle we do ask to see the manuscript of any book for which you are considering contributing a foreword. I will therefore take Mr. Dhanapala up on his offer to send the entire manuscript. When it arrives I will ask DDA to vet it, and - assuming they find nothing objectionable - to provide a short draft foreword which we will then edit and submit for your approval. , Many thanks. W
Edward Mortimer 27 September 2004 /
L :"'«?*-f-}. • •& I Sla}uirr)LiiriLi3»La& SECRETARY GENERAL Secretariat for Co-ordinating the peace process
SCOPP/SGP. 2nd August
C E I ¥ i H E Mr Kofi Annan Secretary-General SEP 2 T 2004 United Nations
NEW YORK. Of ire SECflETAW-GENEBAL
My dear
As you may be aware, I have accepted the invitation of the President of Sri Lanka to be Secretary-General of the Peace Secretariat and her Senior Adviser on the peace process with effect from June 1st this year. It is an extremely challenging task in a complex situation, but I felt duty bound to accept the invitation.
In the year since I left New York,-'I have continued my international commitments and have also engaged in writing a book on my experience of presiding over the NPT Review and Extension Conference of 1995. The manuscript is now complete and will be published by UNIDR in Geneva to come out in time for the May 2005 NPT Review Conference.
Since the NPT is under considerable stress both because of non- compliance by non-nuclear weapon States and lack of progress in nuclear disarmament, it is important that the Review Conference of 2005 should succeed. I have no doubt that you will do everything possible in this regard. In addition, I think my book, which is strongly supportive of this important treaty in the field of international peace and security, will also
rllS ^ r 10 d&ib wit, (Biofes, eairmiib, a.6ua, aifrjigs, itosoiuib, QttH(inibn 01. Level 10. West Tower. World Trade Centre, Colombo 01 Telephones S—SSJS make a modest contribution. For this reason, I would hope ttwi|[be possible for you to contribute a Foreward to the book.
In order that your staff may evaluate this reguest and make appropriate recommendations to you, I annex a brief plan of the book. However, if the entire manuscript is requested, this could be sent to New York without delay,
I continue to be involved in numerous international activities in addition to my work on the Sri Lankan peace process. This includes the Weapons of Mass Destruction Commission with Hans Blix, the International Advisory Board of the ICRC, the UN University Council etc.
With my warm personal regards,
Yours sincerely, c-
Jayantha Dhanapajj Secretary-Gee THE EXTENSION OF THE NPT AND ITS AFTERMATH (Working title)
LIST OF CONTENTS
1. Foreword by Kofi Annan, Secretary-General of the United Nations (to be confirmed)
2. Preface - brief description of the author's credentials as Chairman, Main Committee I of the 1985 NPT Review Conference and President of the NPT Review and Extension Conference; the absence so far of any detailed analysis of the Conference and its relationship to ongoing developments in nuclear proliferation; the need for an understanding of the past to grasp the dynamics of the present and prepare for a successful NPT Review Conference in the spring of 2005; acknowledgment of debts to various individuals and to MacArthur Foundation for funding.
3. Introduction - A summary of the issues involved in the NPT Review and Extension Conference of 1995; its significance as a successful multilateral conference; the international relations context and the interplay of groups especially the Western and Non-aligned; the implications of the indefinite extension decision and its relationship to the subsequent negotiation of the CTBT, the Indian and Pakistani nuclear tests, the clandestine nuclear development programmes of Iraq, DPRK, Iran and Libya; the link to the 2000 Review Conference and the emergence of the New Agenda Coalition.
4. The 1995 Conference Preparatory process - This chapter will begin with the failure of the 1990 NPT Review Conference to agree on a Final Document examining the reasons for this. With this backdrop and the main issues of the CTBT unresolved the four Preparatory Committee meetings would be described and analyzed. The decision by the Non-aligned group of countries to nominate the writer as President-designate of the Conference was approved by the Third Preparatory Committee meeting and thereafter the writer was able to spend useful time in consultations in many important capitals preparing himself for his task. This diplomatic work built the foundation for the success of the 1995 Conference.
5. Group positions at the Conference - The Western Group had canvassed strongly for an indefinite extension and inroads had already been made into the ranks of non-aligned countries. The Non-aligned countries failed to agree on a common position until midway during the Conference when a Ministerial meeting was held in Bandung. By that time it was too late. The Eastern Group had no distinctive position and went along with the Western Group while China, while being broadly sympathetic to the Non-aligned, wanted a "smooth1 extension. The examination of the group dynamics and the diplomatic pressure of the major powers would form the main part of this chapter.
6. The adoption of a package of three decisions and a Resolution - The device of establishing a small group called the Presidential Consultations helped to delink the extension decision from the review part of the Conference. The evolution of three separate but interlinked decisions to extend the Treaty indefinitely, to strengthen the Review process and to set Principles and Objectives as benchmarks for future review of the Treaty represents a fascinating exercise in multilateral diplomacy in which mutual give and take was active. The last minute problem of seeking a solution to the demands of the Arab countries and the adoption of a Resolution sponsored by the three depositary states. The package was adopted before the conclusion of the Conference leaving it to the three main committees to conclude their review of the Treaty in the last five years.
7. The Review of the Treaty in the Committees - This is normally a crucial aspect of NPT Conferences but in this Conference the focus was on the Extension Decision. Nevertheless the work of the three committees reviewing different aspects of the NPT was important. A description of the work done in the three committees will be provided. Only Main Committee I dealing with the political issues in the NPT failed to reach a successful conclusion. The personality of the Chairman, the intransigence of some Non-aligned countries who were stung by the adoption of the extension decision and the complacence of the Western Group who had won their main victory may all have contributed to this.
8. The Aftermath - CTBT and Iraq: The immediate aftermath of the Conference saw nuclear weapon tests by France and China and widespread demonstrations against these but this did not stop the negotiation of the CTBT which seemed to vindicate the decision to extend the NPT. The IAEA's adoption of an Additional Protocol to plug the loophole exposed by Iraq was another positive achievement. Shortly thereafter the rejection of the CTBT's ratification and the 1998 nuclear tests in India and Pakistan setback the goals of the NPT. In addition the problem of obtaining Iraqi compliance with Security Council resolutions posed another problem in which the writer was actively involved visiting Iraq twice and working towards a settlement of the issue from within the United Nations.
9. The 2000 NPT Review Conference - The early signs indicated that this conference would be a failure given the negative record in terms of nuclear disarmament and the other steps called for in the decisions adopted in 1995. The emergence of a new transcontinental grouping of states called the New Agenda Coalition brought in a new element in NPT conferences and their efforts proved remarkably successful in crafting a far-reaching Final Document in which the five nuclear weapon states accepted the goal of nuclear disarmament leading to the elimination of nuclear weapons through 13 designated steps. This seemed to follow the impetus of the 1995 conference.
10 The NPT as a Treaty Regime - The NPT must be seen in the context of global norms and other treaty regimes which comprise the basic architecture of international peace and security. And yet with new threats to global security the potential of the NPT as one of the treaties created to stem the proliferation of WMD has to be reassessed. What has been the record of the NPT and should it have been extended indefinitely when so many inadequacies in the treaty regime are being alleged? This chapter is a 'fast forward1 to the present after describing the 1995 conference so that reader interest is retained and the relevance of the analysis of the 1995 Conference is firmly established. This chapter will also examine in each of these cases the discovery/admission of clandestine nuclear weapon proliferation and how the IAEA and the international community reacted to it. The discovery of a clandestine black-market in nuclear materials and technology has been especially shocking. What is being done to cope with this and how can the NPT regime survive?
10. Prospects for the 2005 Review Conference and Conclusion - Will this be the swansong of the NPT or will the opportunity be grasped to fashion an NPT to meet the challenges of the 21 st century. A number of proposals have been made by President Bush, by the Director-General of the IAEA and many others. These will be examined and their feasibility discussed. Will proliferation be possible delinked from fulfilling the disarmament obligations of the nuclear weapon states?
************************** * Jayantha Dhanapala * * 25/6, Pepiliyana Road * * Nugegoda * * Sri Lanka * * * * Tel: 94-11-2856297 * **************************