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Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons REFLECTIONS ON THE TREATY ON THE NON-PROLIFERATION OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS Review conferences and the future of the NPT by jayantha dhanapala and tariq rauf REFLECTIONS ON THE TREATY ON THE NON-PROLIFERATION OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS Review conferences and the future of the NPT BY JAYANTHA DHANAPALA AND TARIQ RAUF STOCKHOLM INTERNATIONAL PEACE RESEARCH INSTITUTE SIPRI is an independent international institute dedicated to research into conflict, armaments, arms control and disarmament. Established in 1966, SIPRI provides data, analysis and recommendations, based on open sources, to policymakers, researchers, media and the interested public. The Governing Board is not responsible for the views expressed in the publications of the Institute. GOVERNING BOARD Sven-Olof Petersson, Chairman (Sweden) Dr Dewi Fortuna Anwar (Indonesia) Dr Vladimir Baranovsky (Russia) Espen Barth Eide (Norway) Ambassador Lakhdar Brahimi (Algeria) Ambassador Wolfgang Ischinger (Germany) Professor Mary Kaldor (United Kingdom) Dr Radha Kumar (India) The Director DIRECTOR Dan Smith (United Kingdom) Signalistgatan 9 SE-169 72 Solna, Sweden Telephone: +46 8 655 97 00 Email: [email protected] Internet: www.sipri.org Contents Acknowledgements v About the authors vii A message from HE Kairat Abdrakhmanov ix Introduction 1 JAYANTHA DHANAPALA AND TARIQ RAUF Part 1 Multilateral diplomacy and the NPT: An insider’s account 5 JAYANTHA DHANAPALA WITH RANDY RYDELL Part 2 Planning for the 2010 NPT Review Conference: 133 A practitioner’s overview JAYANTHA DHANAPALA Part 3 Evaluating the 2010 NPT Review Conference 181 JAYANTHA DHANAPALA Part 4 Assessing the 2015 NPT Review Conference 199 TARIQ RAUF Part 5 Preparing for the 2017 NPT Preparatory Committee Session: 211 The enhanced strengthened review process TARIQ RAUF Part 6 The 2020 NPT Review Conference: A guide to procedural matters 241 TARIQ RAUF Conclusions: The Future of the NPT 265 TARIQ RAUF AND JAYANTHA DHANAPALA Annexes Annex A. Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons 271 Annex B. ‘The Package’—Key Documents of the 1995 NPTREC 276 Annex C. 2000 Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the 283 Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons Final Document This publication was updated in April 2017 to include a new Part 5. Acknowledgements We are grateful to the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research, the United States Institute of Peace, and the Council of the Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs for the kind permission to reprint, respectively: Multilateral Diplomacy and the NPT: An Insider’s Account* (United Nations, 2005); Planning for the 2010 NPT Review Conference: A Practitioner’s Overview (Issue Brief, vol. 6, no. 1., March 2010), and Evaluating the 2010 NPT Review Conference (Special Report 258: October 2010)—all written by Jayantha Dhanapala; *with Randy Rydell. We would like to express our appreciation to H.E. Kairat Abdrakhmanov, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Republic of Kazakhstan, as well as to H.E. Ambassador Dastan Eleukenov, Embassy of Kazakhstan in Stockholm (Sweden) and to H.E. Ambassador Kairat Sarybay, Embassy of Kazakhstan in Vienna (Austria), for their support for making possible the printing and distribution of this publication to delegations of NPT States parties and civil society. Jayantha Dhanapala and Tariq Rauf, April 2017 The printing and distribution of this book was made possible by a generous grant from the Government of Kazakhstan. The views expressed in this book are solely those of the two authors and should not be taken as reflecting the views of the Government of Kazakhstan. About the authors Ambassador Jayantha Dhanapala was the President of the 1995 Review and Extension Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. Currently, he is the President of the 1995 Nobel Peace Laureate Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs, and Distinguished Associate Fellow with the Disarmament, Arms Control and Non-Proliferation Programme at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) and was the Vice Chair of the Governing Board of SIPRI. He was the UN Under-Secretary-General for Disarmament Affairs (1998–2003), Ambassador for Sri Lanka to the USA (1995–1997) and to the UN Office in Geneva (1984–87). He was the Director of the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Affairs (1987–92); member of the Canberra Commission on Nuclear Disarmament 1995–96; the International Weapons of Mass Destruction Commission, the International Advisory Group of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), the United Nations University Council (Chairman for the year 2007–2008), the Geneva Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces, the Advisory Council of the Stanford Institute for International Studies, the International Board of the Bonn International Center for Conversion, the International Advisory Board of the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Monterey Institute of International Studies, and Honorary President of the International Peace Bureau (2003–2007). Tariq Rauf is consulting advisor to the Executive Secretary of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization in Vienna. From February 2013 to March 2017, he was the Director of the Disarmament, Arms Control and Non-Proliferation Programme at SIPRI. He was Senior Advisor to the Chair of Main Committee I (nuclear disarmament) at the 2015 NPT Review Conference and also to the Chair of the 2014 NPT Preparatory Committee. From 2002–11, he was Head of Verification and Security Policy Coordination, Office reporting to the Director General, at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), in which capacity he was the Alternate Head of the IAEA Delegation to NPT Conferences and PrepComs from 2003–10; IAEA Liaison and Point-of-Contact (PoC) for multilateral control regimes such as the Nuclear Suppliers Group, the Zangger Committee, Committee UNSCR 1540, and the (UN) Counter-Terrorism Implementation Task Force (CTITF); from 2003–12, Coordinator of IAEA Multilateral Approaches to the Nuclear Fuel Cycle, PoC for the Trilateral Initiative and the Plutonium Management and Disposition Agreement negotiations; responsible for the IAEA Forum on Experience of Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zones Relevant for the Middle East from 2002–10. From 1987–2000, he was Non-Proliferation Expert/Advisor with Canada’s delegations to NPT Conferences. A message from HE Kairat Abdrakhmanov∗ Nuclear weapons are the most destructive weapons invented and used by humankind. The 1968 Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) is the foundation for the global nuclear non-proliferation and nuclear disarmament system, and facilitates the peaceful use of nuclear energy for development and prosperity. The NPT is the most widely adhered to multilateral nuclear arms control agreement, having achieved near universality. Only five countries are not signatories. The international conferences in Oslo (2013), Nayarit (2014) and Vienna (2015) have highlighted the unacceptable humanitarian and ecological consequences of the detonation of a single modern nuclear weapon. Yet, the world continues to face the monumental challenge of finding ways to achieve the disarmament of more than 15 000 nuclear weapons and paving the way for the elimination of this last category of weapons of mass destruction. This realization has led a majority of United Nations member states to begin multilateral negotiations on a legally binding instrument to prohibit nuclear weapons, leading to their total elimination. Despite five successful nuclear security summits in Moscow (1996), Washington, DC (2010), Seoul (2012), The Hague (2014) and Washington, DC (2016), 87 per cent of global stocks of weapon-usable highly-enriched uranium and plutonium remain outside any international accountability and verification. Although the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) opened for signature in September 1996, two decades later it still languishes awaiting entry-into-force pending the signature/ratification of eight states. Despite this, more than 90 per cent of the international monitoring system is now in place and operational. More than 110 countries are party to nuclear-weapon-free zone treaties, covering the entire southern hemisphere, including Central Asia and Mongolia in the northern hemisphere. The year 2020 will mark the 50th, or golden, anniversary of the NPT and hopes remain high for a successful outcome of the 10th NPT review conference that will be held then. Preparations for this important conference will commence this year starting in Vienna. Since its independence in 1991, the Republic of Kazakhstan and President Nursultan Nazarbayev have been at the forefront of promoting and strengthening global nuclear arms control regimes—including the NPT, the CTBT and nuclear-weapon-free zones. Kazakhstan’s words always have been matched with deeds: the Semipalatinsk nuclear test site was permanently shut down by the Kazakh President’s decree in 1991, after at least 456 nuclear tests had been carried out by the Soviet Union, and more than half a ton of weapon- ∗ HE Kairat Abdrakhmanov is the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Republic of Kazakhstan. x A MESSAGE FROM HE KAIRAT ABDRAKHMANOV, KAZAKHSTAN usable highly-enriched uranium was repatriated in 1994. Kazakhstan divested itself of more than 1400 Soviet nuclear weapons left on its territory and acceded to the NPT in 1994. In 2005 Kazakhstan blended down three tonnes of highly-enriched uranium to a level of low enrichment for peaceful use. It also led the effort
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