voices Defusing the nuclear powder keg How Asian nations can lead by example

By Jayantha DhanapalA Former UN Under-Secretary-General for Disarmament Affairs

Former UN Under-Secretary General for Disarmament Affairs, Jayantha Dhanapala praises Indonesia’s ratification of the CTBT and argues that each additional ratification sends a clear political message to the remaining hold-out States.

If our cricket-crazy South Asian subcontinent knows the Sri Lankan hill-country town of Pallekelle — in the suburbs of my hometown of Kandy — for anything, it is for the Pallekelle nuclear blast. Radionuclide stations sniff »Opposing the CTBT International Cricket Stadium where the air for radioactivity — the 'smoking some of the 2011 World Cup Cricket gun' of any nuclear test. Thanks to the because it fails to deliver matches were played. most elaborate verification system in complete disarmament is the history of arms control, of which However, Pallekelle is also home 290 facilities are now operational, tantamount to opposing to another, more inconspicuous but no the international community can rest speed limits on roads less important complex: a monitoring assured that all nuclear tests of military because they fail to prevent station to detect nuclear explosions. significance will be detected, as indicated It is a part of an unprecedented global in the March 2012 National Academy of accidents completely.« alarm system built by the Vienna- Sciences report on The Comprehensive based Preparatory Commission for Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT): Technical the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Issues for the United States. The system long way in establishing its formidable Treaty Organization (CTBTO). has already proved its effectiveness by verification system, the CTBT has yet detecting the North Korean tests in 2006 to become global law. This is one of Sensors across the world and 2009, despite their low yield and the the main reasons why, in my presence fact that considerably fewer monitoring on January 10 in Washington D.C. Monitoring technologies have evolved far stations were operational then. this year, the Bulletin of Atomic beyond what was envisaged at the time Scientists decided to adjust the hands of the system's conception in the 1990s. The ‘Doomsday Clock' - one of its 'Doomsday Clock' — a symbolic When complete, over 300 state-of-the-art minute closer to midnight measure which counts down to nuclear sensors in every corner of the world will Armageddon — one minute closer to listen to the atmosphere, the oceans and Although the CTBTO is celebrating its midnight: it is now set at 11:55, five underground for shock waves from a 15th birthday this year and has come a minutes before global disaster.

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CTBTO SPECTRUM 19 | September 2012 The Doomsday Clock of the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists stands at just five minutes to global disaster. Photo courtesy of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (10 January 2012)

Veteran Nepalese diplomat Hira B. In February 2012, Indonesia decided to All these countries are parties to Thapa recently wrote about the looming leave this group and join the 156 countries the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty as danger of nuclear warfare in South Asia that had already ratified the CTBT, while non-nuclear weapon States and active for his country. I share the same fears for the Obama Administration has pledged to members of the Non-Aligned Movement Sri Lanka. The detonation, accidental or resubmit the Treaty to the US Senate for (NAM). For NAM, nuclear disarmament has planned, of even a single nuclear weapon in advice and consent. been a core value since its inception in 1961. this part of the world, would be catastrophic Over the decades it has pushed incessantly, for the region. A nuclear exchange Since its inception in 1996, the and vigorously, for a global ban on nuclear between India and Pakistan would cause CTBT's zero-testing norm is the expression weapons and nuclear tests alike and has a global nuclear winter leading to years of a zero-tolerance stance against nuclear supported the CTBT. of widespread famine, as Professors Alan testing, treated nowadays as a reckless Robock from Rutgers University and Owen and atavistic display of nuclear weapon Ratifying the CTBT is not only a matter Brian Toon from the University of Colorado, possession. It is my hope that other of principle. It is not only about supporting United States, have predicted. Nuclear war countries in the wider Asian region will world peace and the environment. It is in in South Asia can be triggered by States or follow Indonesia's shining example. our security interests. Indonesia has shown non-State actors, by accident or design – as the way — now it is up to other countries to long as nuclear weapons exist in the region. On peace and the environment follow suit. Each additional ratification sends a clear political signal to the remaining hold-out Hampering qualitative The non-nuclear weapon States in States. The saga for the banning of all nuclear improvements of our region could make a difference by tests began in 1954 with a great visionary nuclear weapons leading through example: among the leader from Asia — Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru. It Association of South East Asian Nations would be a tragic irony for Asian nations to be A crude Hiroshima-bomb type weapon (ASEAN), only Brunei, Myanmar an obstacle now when that goal is within sight. can be developed without testing, yet the and Thailand have yet to ratify the development of more advanced nuclear CTBT. The ASEAN countries are also Biographical note weapons continues to rely on testing. members of the South-East Asia Jayantha Dhanapala Nuclear-Weapons-Free Zone (Treaty of is a former United Nations Under- The CTBT was never meant to Bangkok), which itself prohibits nuclear Secretary-General for Disarmament be a cure-all. It addresses one, albeit tests. Full regional membership of the Affairs (1998-2003) and a former crucial aspect: hampering qualitative Treaty of Bangkok and the CTBT are Ambassador of Sri Lanka to the USA (1995-7) and to the UN Office in improvements of nuclear weapons. It important steps in establishing South- Geneva (1984-87). He is currently the could make a difference – whether a East Asia as a nuclear weapon-free 11th President of the Nobel Peace 'simple' nuclear weapon is at stake or a bastion of stability. In the wider region, Prize-winning Pugwash Conferences thermonuclear weapon with apocalyptic the only countries that have yet to on Science and World Affairs, Deputy destructive power. ratify the CTBT are Papua New Guinea, Chairman of the Governing Board of the Stockholm International Peace Timor-Leste, Nepal, and my own Research Institute (SIPRI), and a Only eight specific ratifications are country, Sri Lanka. Taking this decisive member of several other advisory missing for the CTBT to enter into force: step would put the nuclear weapon boards of international bodies. the United States, China, Iran, India, possessors and the remaining eight An earlier version of this article was Pakistan, Egypt, Israel, and North Korea. CTBT hold-outs in the spotlight. published in The Hindu on 4 April 2012.

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CTBTO SPECTRUM 19 | September 2012