This Is Your COVID Wake-Up Call: It Is 100 Seconds to Midnight

This is your COVID wake-up call:

It is 100 seconds to midnight

2021 Doomsday Clock Statement

Science and Security Board Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

Editor, John Mecklin

It is 100 seconds to midnight

Editor’s note: Founded in 1945 by Albert Einstein and University of Chicago scientists who helped develop the frst atomic weapons in the Manhattan Project, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists created the Doomsday Clock two years later, using the imagery of apocalypse (midnight) and the contemporary idiom of nuclear explosion (countdown to zero) to convey threats to humanity and the planet. The Doomsday Clock is set every year by the Bulletin’s Science and Security Board in consultation with its Board of Sponsors, which includes 13 Nobel laureates. The Clock has become a universally recognized indicator of the world’s vulnerability to catastrophe from nuclear weapons, climate change, and disruptive technologies in other domains.

To: Leaders and citizens of the world Accelerating nuclear programs in multiple Re: This is your COVID wake-up call: It is countries moved the world into less stable and 100 seconds to midnight manageable territory last year. Development of hypersonic glide vehicles, ballistic missile Date: January 27, 2021 defenses, and weapons-delivery systems that can fexibly use conventional or nuclear Humanity continues to sufer as the COVID-19 warheads may raise the probability of pandemic spreads around the world. In 2020 miscalculation in times of tension. Events like alone, this novel disease killed 1.7 million the deadly assault earlier this month on the US people and sickened at least 70 million more. Capitol renewed legitimate concerns about The pandemic revealed just how unprepared national leaders who have sole control of the and unwilling countries and the international use of nuclear weapons. Nuclear nations, system are to handle global emergencies however, have ignored or undermined properly. In this time of genuine crisis, practical and available diplomatic and security governments too often abdicated tools for managing nuclear risks. By our responsibility, ignored scientifc advice, did estimation, the potential for the world to not cooperate or communicate efectively, and stumble into nuclear war—an ever-present consequently failed to protect the health and danger over the last 75 years—increased in welfare of their citizens. 2020. An extremely dangerous global failure to address existential threats—what we called As a result, many hundreds of thousands of “the new abnormal” in 2019—tightened its grip human beings died needlessly. in the nuclear realm in the past year, Though lethal on a massive scale, this increasing the likelihood of catastrophe. particular pandemic is not an existential Governments have also failed to sufciently threat. Its consequences are grave and will be address climate change. A pandemic-related lasting. But COVID-19 will not obliterate economic slowdown temporarily reduced the civilization, and we expect the disease to carbon dioxide emissions that cause global recede eventually. Still, the pandemic serves as warming. But over the coming decade fossil a historic wake-up call, a vivid illustration that fuel use needs to decline precipitously if the national governments and international worst efects of climate change are to be organizations are unprepared to manage avoided. Instead, fossil fuel development and nuclear weapons and climate change, which production are projected to increase. currently pose existential threats to humanity, Atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations or the other dangers—including more virulent hit a record high in 2020, one of the two pandemics and next-generation warfare—that warmest years on record. The massive could threaten civilization in the near future. wildfres and catastrophic cyclones of 2020 are

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 2 illustrations of the major devastation that will example, the United States has already only increase if governments do not announced it is rejoining the Paris Agreement signifcantly and quickly amplify their eforts on climate change and the Biden to bring greenhouse gas emissions essentially administration has ofered to extend the New to zero. START arms control agreement with Russia for fve years. In the context of a post- As we noted in our last Doomsday Clock pandemic return to relative stability, more statement, the existential threats of nuclear such demonstrations of renewed interest in weapons and climate change have intensifed and respect for science and multilateral in recent years because of a threat multiplier: cooperation could create the basis for a safer the continuing corruption of the information and saner world. ecosphere on which democracy and public Because these decision-making depend. developments have not Here, again, the Positive developments yet yielded substantive COVID-19 pandemic is a progress toward a safer wake-up call. False and have not yet yielded world, they are not misleading information sufcient to move the disseminated over the Clock away from internet—including substantive progress midnight. But they are misrepresentation of positive and do weigh COVID-19’s seriousness, toward a safer world. against the profound promotion of false cures, dangers of institutional and politicization of low- decay, science denialism, cost protective measures aggressive nuclear such as face masks—created social chaos in postures, and disinformation campaigns many countries and led to unnecessary death. discussed in our 2020 statement. The members This wanton disregard for science and the of the Science and Security Board therefore set large-scale embrace of conspiratorial nonsense the Doomsday Clock at 100 seconds to —often driven by political fgures and partisan midnight, the closest it has ever been to media—undermined the ability of responsible civilization-ending apocalypse and the same national and global leaders to protect the time we set in 2020. It is deeply unfortunate security of their citizens. False conspiracy that the global response to the pandemic over theories about a “stolen” presidential election the past year has explicitly validated many of led to rioting that resulted in the death of fve the concerns we have voiced for decades. people and the frst hostile occupation of the US Capitol since 1814. We continue to believe that human beings can manage the dangers posed by modern In 2020, online lying literally killed. technology, even in times of crisis. But if humanity is to avoid an existential catastrophe Considered by themselves, these negative —one that would dwarf anything it has yet events in the nuclear, climate change, and seen—national leaders must do a far better job disinformation arenas might justify moving the of countering disinformation, heeding science, clock closer to midnight. But amid the gloom, and cooperating to diminish global risks. we see some positive developments. The Citizens around the world can and should election of a US president who acknowledges organize and demand—through public climate change as a profound threat and protests, at ballot boxes, and in other creative supports international cooperation and ways—that their governments reorder their science-based policy puts the world on a priorities and cooperate domestically and better footing to address global problems. For internationally to reduce the risk of nuclear

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 3 war, climate change, and other global disasters, from which the United States withdrew in including pandemic disease. 2019. China, which has historically relied on a small and constrained nuclear arsenal, is We have experienced the consequences of expanding its capabilities and deploying inaction. It is time to respond. multiple, independently retargetable warheads on some of its ICBMs and will likely add more A dark nuclear landscape, with in the coming year. glimmers of hope The heightened interest that the United States In the past year, countries with nuclear and Russia have shown in hypersonic weapons continued to spend vast sums on weapons, as demonstrated by a number of nuclear modernization programs, even as they tests in 2020, is deeply worrisome. The hypersonics arms race has already led to calls allowed proven risk-reduction achievements in for space-based interceptors to destroy them arms control and diplomacy to wither or die. in fight. This militarization of space is Nuclear weapons and weapons-delivery dangerously destabilizing and increases the platforms capable of carrying either nuclear or risk of escalation and accidental confict. conventional warheads continued to proliferate, while Several countries are destabilizing “advances” in developing weapons-delivery the space and cyber realms, in The potential to platforms that can carry hypersonic missiles, and in either nuclear or conventional missile defenses continued. stumble into warheads, introducing greater Governments in the United risks of miscalculation in a States, Russia, and other nuclear war crisis or conventional confict. countries appear to consider Some may view this nuclear weapons more-and- ambiguity as a deterrent to more usable, increasing the has grown. war, but it is not hard to risks of their actual use. imagine how mistaking a There continues to be an conventionally armed cruise extraordinary disregard for the potential of an missile for a nuclear-armed accidental nuclear war, even as well- missile could complicate decision-making in documented examples of frighteningly close the fog of crisis or war, potentially leading to calls have emerged. preemptive strikes. The potential to stumble into nuclear war—ever present—has grown. US and Russian nuclear modernization eforts continued to accelerate, and North Korea, Meanwhile, developments in Northeast Asia, China, India, and Pakistan pursued “improved” the Middle East, and South Asia further add to and larger nuclear forces. Some of these nuclear risks. modernization programs are beginning to feld weapons with dangerous enhancements, like North Korea continues to develop its missile Russia’s nuclear-tipped Avangard hypersonic and nuclear programs. It revealed a new and glide vehicles, which are being installed on larger long-range missile (Hwasong-16) in new SS-29 (Sarmat) missiles designed to replace 1980s-era intercontinental ballistic October 2020 at a military parade, but in the missiles (ICBMs). Russia continues to feld absence of fight testing, it’s not clear whether battalions of intermediate-range, ground- the new missile will add major capabilities to launched, nuclear-armed missiles—missiles North Korea’s arsenal. There were no high previously banned by the now-defunct Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty,

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 4 level meetings between North Korea and the Other arms control eforts—including the United States in 2020, leaving the future of US nuclear test ban treaty and negotiations to stop negotiations with North Korea in doubt. producing fssile materials for weapons—have unraveled or are stalled. Previous cooperation South Asia remains a potential nuclear hot on fssile material control and nuclear spot, as both India and Pakistan continue to proliferation among the United States, Russia, enlarge their arsenals and increase the and China has lapsed, and there are no serious sophistication and ranges of their weapons, eforts aimed at limiting risky developments in with Indian ballistic missiles now able to reach cyberweapons, space weapons, missile defenses, and hypersonic missiles. Chinese targets. The relatively recent movement of nuclear competition among The tenth review of the Non-Proliferation these countries to sea-based platforms, Treaty (NPT) was postponed in 2020 because including submarines, raises the risk—already of the COVID-19 pandemic. Rescheduled for high—that conventional skirmishes could this year, the review conference will provide escalate to the nuclear level. an opportunity for nuclear weapons countries to demonstrate the practical steps they have The continued efort by Iran to enhance its taken or will commit to take to reduce the nuclear capabilities is another serious concern. risks of nuclear weapons use and scale back But a bright spot in an otherwise gloomy their reliance on nuclear weapons. landscape is the Biden administration’s stated desire to rejoin the Iran nuclear deal, known Just a few days ago, the Treaty on the ofcially as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons entered into Action (JCPOA). In response to the 2018 US force after 50 countries completed ratifcation. withdrawal, Iran deliberately walked back its This treaty was developed by countries that do commitments under the agreement. Stockpiles not have nuclear weapons, with the intention of low-enriched uranium have increased, of bringing pressure on the nuclear weapons enrichment levels have risen, and new, states to move more forcefully toward nuclear improved centrifuges have been installed. disarmament. The treaty brings much-needed These actions have reduced the amount of attention to the risks posed by nuclear time it would take Iran to put together a weapons, especially the enormous nuclear weapon from one year to several humanitarian impacts of the use of nuclear months. At the same time, Iran continues to weapons. We hope that the treaty will lead to comply with many of the agreement’s concrete actions by all states to address the requirements, and many of the actions it has challenges of disarmament and proliferation, taken can easily be reversed. However, Iran’s including collective security and verifcation. willingness to remain in the agreement is not a We call on all states to collaborate and given. compromise to achieve real disarmament results. To keep nuclear modernization programs from becoming a full-scale nuclear arms race, it will Climate change action after the be essential that New START, a treaty that pandemic limits US and Russian strategic weapon deployments, be extended for fve more years, Last year was to have marked a climate change buying time for a follow-on agreement to be milestone: The parties to the Paris Agreement considered, negotiated, and put into force. were expected to increase their pledges to Russian President Vladimir Putin and new US reduce the greenhouse gas emissions that are President Joe Biden agreed to do that on disrupting Earth’s climate. The initial pledges January 26, and now the action is in the made in 2015 to reduce emissions over this Duma’s hands. decade were markedly inadequate and meant

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 5 only to begin an iterative process towards the energy demand and thus emissions—unless we goal of limiting global warming to well below 2 take deliberate policy steps to reduce fossil- degrees Celsius, relative to pre-industrial fuel use and accelerate the adoption of levels. Countries had been expected to raise alternatives. their pledges at the 2020 meeting, but because of the coronavirus pandemic, the meeting was Fortunately, renewable energy has been postponed until this year. resilient in the turbulent pandemic energy environment. Renewable deployment has The delay may help. Few countries have been slowed, but by less than other sources, and paying much attention to climate action during investment remains high. In the US, coal is the pandemic. In 2020, countries whose projected to provide less electricity than emissions amounted to barely one-quarter of renewables for the frst time ever, owing to a the global total had submitted improved decline in electricity demand and coal’s emissions pledges, and countries responsible inability to compete given the low price of for another quarter of global emissions— natural gas and near-zero operating costs of including Australia, Japan, the United States, renewables. Globally, demand for fossil-based Russia, Indonesia, Brazil power has declined, and New Zealand— while demand for simply announced renewable power has pledges that were risen. efectively identical to In 2020, the impacts of or even weaker than These developments their existing climate change were need to be sustained commitments. Although into the recovery from the United States underscored in extreme the COVID-19 crisis, but formally withdrew from are not nearly enough to the Paris Agreement and damaging ways. halt warming. Global late last year, the new greenhouse gas administration has concentrations in the begun the process of atmosphere have hit a rejoining and expressed its intention to submit record high, and 2020 was essentially tied with an improved pledge and to provide additional 2016 as the warmest year on record. Until fnancial support for climate actions in poor global carbon dioxide emissions are reduced countries. As the pandemic recedes, more nearly to zero, the burden of carbon dioxide in countries may step up their pledges over the the atmosphere will continue to mount, and course of the coming year. the world will continue to warm. The climate is still heading in the wrong direction. As the COVID-19 pandemic deepened in the early months of 2020, carbon dioxide In 2020, the impacts of continuing climate emissions dropped by an estimated 17 percent change were underscored in extreme and compared to the previous year’s. Emissions damaging ways. Portions of North America have largely bounced back, however, as the and Australia sufered massive wildfres, and a world’s fossil fuel-dependent economies have clear signal of human-caused climate change begun to recover, and the year’s total was evident in the frequency of powerful emissions were estimated at only four-to- tropical cyclones and the heavier rainfall they seven percent lower than last year’s. Of course, produced. Meanwhile, evidence mounted that cutting emissions temporarily via disease- sea level rise is accelerating, and the efects of induced economic recession is neither the oceans growing warmer and more acidic desirable nor sustainable. And, as with other because of carbon dioxide absorption were economic crises, further recovery will raise clear in many marine ecosystems, as was most

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 6 dramatically illustrated by the ongoing A second question: How will the pandemic destruction of coral reefs. afect the ability of the international political system to manage global climate change? Like In the long term, the answers to two questions climate change, the COVID-19 pandemic is a related to the pandemic will have important global problem that calls for a global solution. climate change ramifcations: How successfully the leaders of the world’s nations coordinate their responses to the First, to what extent will economic stimulus pandemic afects (or, will afect) their faith and spending aimed at ending the coronavirus commitment to multilateralism generally. They economic slowdown be directed toward could become more confdent in the value of efcient green infrastructure and low-carbon efective global cooperation and robust industries? Such support will inevitably international institutions, or they could compete with aid requests from fossil fuel emerge more mistrustful of multilateralism companies and other carbon-intensive and discard their remaining commitments to industries that are also facing pandemic- invest in already declining and over-stretched related pressures. institutions of global cooperation. A positive experience could lead to efective In the COVID-19 case, a lot of “brown” (fossil- collaborations addressing climate change, the based) stimulus is in the works. The trillions threat of nuclear war, and global challenges yet of dollars in stimulus programs that countries to emerge. have launched are not particularly green. In aggregate, the G20 countries had committed The COVID-19 infodemic and other approximately $240 billion to stimulus spending that supports fossil fuel energy by disruptive threats the end of 2020, versus $160 billion for clean energy. Likewise, the support packages for The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the developing countries from the World Bank and planet in many extraordinary and negative International Monetary Fund do not favor low- ways, one of which involves the internet- carbon investments. And while China has driven spread of false or misleading made strong commitments to the information. As the pandemic emerged, it decarbonization of its domestic economy, its spawned what the World Health Organization Belt and Road Initiative appears poised to fll has called a “massive ‘infodemic’—an over- the niche increasingly being abandoned by abundance of information … that makes it hard developed country fnance sectors, pouring for people to fnd trustworthy sources and investment into fossil-fuel infrastructure reliable guidance when they need it.” The around the world. COVID-19 infodemic includes deliberate attempts (sometimes by national leaders) to At present, national plans for fossil fuel disseminate misinformation and development and production are anything but disinformation that harms physical and mental encouraging; they project global growth in health; threatens public health gains; damages carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel use economies; and makes it much more difcult of roughly two percent per year over this for the nations of the world to stop the coming critical decade, whereas emissions pandemic. would need to decline precipitously if the temperature commitments of the Paris The COVID-19 pandemic and its Agreement were to be met. If these plans are accompanying infodemic have become indeed pursued, fossil fuel production in 2030 intertwined with critical uncertainties would be around 50 percent higher than is regarding science, technology, and crisis consistent with meeting even the least communications. ambitious goals of the Paris Agreement.

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 7 First, not all of the science relevant to ending provided a trusted center that supports the pandemic was known at its outset. Alas, societal stability—government agencies, many loud voices regarded the evolution of especially those related to public health and scientifc knowledge about COVID-19 as climate change, journalism, the judiciary, reason to ignore and disparage scientifc education—are under attack precisely because advice about controlling the pandemic. they have provided stability.

Also, as new science-based treatments and At the very least, the widespread dysfunction interventions were developed and tested, in today’s information ecosystem is a threat experts needed to learn how to maximize their multiplier that vastly complicates society’s benefcial efects and deliver them to the ability to address major challenges. Pandemic public. This learning process introduced responses in some countries, including the uncertainty into pandemic discourse around United States, have provided graphic the world. demonstrations that such concerns are not And fnally, merely theoretical. governmental Disinformation has led communications about The widespread leaders and citizens alike COVID-19 included to reject scientifc advice inconsistent and dysfunction in today’s about limiting the spread contradictory of COVID-19, with tragic narratives emerging information ecosystem is results. from political leaders and institutions that a threat multiplier Unchecked internet should have been disinformation could cooperating and that vastly complicates have even more drastic coordinating. consequences in a society’s ability to nuclear crisis, perhaps As these three leading to a nuclear war uncertainties played address major that ends world out last year, the civilization. public’s response to challenges. Disinformation eforts the coronavirus across communications emergency fractured systems are at this along ideological lines, moment undermining with partisanship responses to climate often replacing science as the justifcation for change in many countries. The need for deep public health measures. Unfortunately, the thinking and careful, efective action to internet-fueled undercutting of rational counter the efects of internet-enabled discourse and policy making is not specifc to disinformation has never been clearer. COVID-19. Eforts to deal with the existential threats of nuclear war and climate change have Meanwhile, the COVID-19 pandemic continues been similarly undermined. to rage. SARS-CoV-2 took advantage of both physiological and societal vulnerabilities and Social media, search engines, always-on continues to nimbly skirt poorly mustered mobile computing technologies, and other defenses. Recent mutations have created technology applications have exploited human variants of the virus that are more infectious cognitive propensities to be misled and and sicken children, who were previously enraged and to react impulsively, exacerbating thought to be less prone to infection. political and ideological diferences. Established institutions that have traditionally Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 8 Scientists around the world have mobilized to provide enough hospital beds to treat create COVID-19 treatments and vaccines, and everyone who became seriously ill with the their work is showing promise in reducing the disease, or to manage international supply severity of and eventually suppressing the chains well enough to deliver medicines and pandemic. But public ofcials who have equipment when and where they were most dismissed the value of science during the needed. International security requires speedy pandemic now face populations hesitant to action to reduce those vulnerabilities. An take COVID-19 vaccines. Those same public improved global public health efort to fgures also failed to iron out the prevent, detect, respond to, and recover from manufacturing, distribution, and other natural pandemics would, as a salutary side- logistical details needed for efcient efect, better prepare the world to respond to immunization programs. biological accidents and attacks.

As this pandemic subsides, leaders around the This is your wake-up call world must come together to create the institutions and surveillance regimes that can When the world fnally emerges from the identify disease outbreaks worst pandemic in a and quash them before century, everyone will they become pandemics, rightly celebrate. It might quickly develop vaccines be tempting to mark the and therapeutics for new The message is COVID-19 experience as a diseases, and rapidly one-of, a dismal anomaly promulgate preventive simple and chilling: to be forgotten. We, too, measures for public wish the world could health. Next time could return to normal in short order. Rapidly advancing be far worse. biological research and But the pandemic is not a development have unique departure from a produced, and will secure reality. It is a continue to produce, harbinger, an disruptive technologies that could increase unmistakable signal that much worse will biological risk. In the risk-increasing category come if leaders and institutions do not enact are biotechnology applications that could, for wide-ranging reforms to forestall and example, create super-soldiers or produce minimize future pandemics, to restore the biological weapons. Many countries and primacy of science-based policies, and to corporations are investing in the biological reduce the possibility of nuclear war and the sciences as they recognize the immense impacts of climate change. opportunities to establish and grow bioeconomies. These bio-investment programs We set the Doomsday Clock at 100 seconds to raise the new possibility that nations may midnight—the closest it has ever been— conduct biological weapons research and because the existential risks confronting development under the guise of building humanity today call for quick and efective responses for naturally occurring comprehensive action across the 21st century’s pandemics. complex threat spectrum. Here are some practical steps that world leaders can and Bad actors have surely taken notice of the gaps should initiate in 2021 to protect humanity in national responses to the COVID-19 from major global threats that have the pandemic. Most nations were unable to meet potential to end civilization: needs for personal protective equipment, to

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 9 • The US and Russian presidents should, risk reduction and on avoiding escalation upon extension of New START, launch dangers. follow-on talks for more ambitious and comprehensive limits of nuclear weapons • North Korea can agree to codify and allow and delivery systems. verifcation of its moratorium on nuclear tests and long-range missile tests. • Now that the United States has announced it will rejoin the Paris climate • Iran and the United States can jointly agreement, it should accelerate its return to full compliance with the Joint commitment to decarbonization and put Comprehensive Plan of Action, and Iran policies in place that make the attainment can agree to new, broader talks about of the commitment feasible. Middle East security and constraints on its missile and other military activities. • Now that the United States has rejoined the World Health Organization, it should • The United States and Russia can renew work through the WHO and other cooperation on fssile material and international institutions to reduce nuclear security to make sure that biological risks of all kinds. Also, national terrorists cannot acquire the means to leaders and international organizations build a nuclear weapon. can prepare for biological events before they occur by more carefully monitoring • Banks and other sources of capital can animal-human interactions and improving implement policies that limit investment international disease surveillance and in fossil fuel projects, as indeed some reporting eforts; increasing world already have done, and redirect it to capacity to produce and quickly distribute climate-friendly investments. medical supplies; and expanding hospital capacity. • China can reorient its Belt and Road Initiative, so it sets an example for other • US President Joe Biden can show investors by pursuing sustainable leadership by reducing US reliance on development pathways rather than nuclear weapons via limits on their roles, supporting fossil fuel-intensive missions, and platforms, and by development. decreasing budgets accordingly. The United States should declare its • All nations can commit to stronger commitment to no-frst-use of nuclear decarbonization goals under the Paris weapons and persuade allies and rivals to Agreement and implement policies agree that no-frst-use is a step toward directed toward the realization of these security and stability. goals. Those policies should address not merely long-term goals but near-term • President Biden should banish the fear emission reductions and investments in that a single person would have the power longer-term structural changes. to end civilization by eliminating his own Meanwhile, the world’s wealthier and future US presidents’ sole authority countries should enhance their to launch nuclear weapons. He should commitments under the Paris Agreement work to persuade other countries with to provide fnancial support and nuclear weapons to put in place similar technology cooperation required by barriers. developing countries to undertake strong climate action. • Russia can rejoin the NATO-Russia Council and open serious discussions on • Leaders in governments and the private sector can emphasize COVID-recovery

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 10 investments that strongly favor climate mitigation and adaptation objectives across all economic sectors and address the full range of potential greenhouse gas emission reductions. This includes capital investments in urban development, agriculture, transport, heavy industry, buildings and appliances, and electric power. • The new US administration can fll leadership positions for science-based agencies on the basis of scientifc expertise and credentials; prohibit interference with the production or dissemination of executive branch scientifc reports; use the best possible science to inform policy considerations; allow government scientists to engage with the public about their work; and provide funding to restore and strengthen international scientifc cooperation. • National leaders and international organizations can create more efective regimes for monitoring biological research and development eforts, so potential benefts can be maximized, and possible negative consequences minimized or eliminated. • Governments, major communications technology frms, academic experts, and responsible media organizations can cooperate to fnd practical and ethical ways to combat internet-enabled misinformation and disinformation.

Having now killed more than two million human beings, COVID-19 is an unmistakable global wake-up call. The message is simple and chilling: Next time could be far worse. Given the pandemic experience, no one can reasonably say he or she was not warned. It remains 100 seconds to midnight, the most dangerous situation that humanity has ever faced. It is time for all to take the actions needed to—quite literally—save the world.

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 11 Science and Security Board Biographies

Rachel Bronson is the President and CEO of Lynn Eden Eden is Senior Research Scholar the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, where (Emeritus) at Stanford University’s Center for she oversees the publishing programs, the International Security and Cooperation. Eden is management of the Doomsday Clock, and activities also co-chair of US Pugwash and a member of the around nuclear risk, climate change, International Pugwash Council. Her scholarly work and disruptive technologies. Before joining the focuses on the military and society; science, Bulletin, she served as vice president for Studies at technology, and organizations; and US nuclear The Chicago Council on Global Afairs, adjunct weapons history and policy. Eden’s Whole World professor of “Global Energy” at the Kellogg School on Fire: Organizations, Knowledge, and Nuclear of Management, and senior fellow and director of Weapons Devastation won the American Middle East studies at the Council on Foreign Sociological Association’s 2004 Robert K. Merton Relations, among other positions. Her book, award for best book in science and technology Thicker than Oil: America’s Uneasy Partnership studies. Her current research and writing (mostly with Saudi Arabia (Oxford University Press, 2006), historical) asks how a specifc US military has been translated into Japanese and published in planning organization has enabled very good paperback. Her writings and commentary have people to plan what, if put into action, could or appeared in outlets including Foreign Afairs, would result in the deaths of tens or hundreds of Foreign Policy, The New York Times, The millions of people. In other words, how do US Washington Post, “PBS NewsHour,” and “The Daily military ofcers make plans to fght and prevail in Show.” Bronson has served as a consultant to NBC nuclear war? News and testifed before the congressional Task Force on Anti-Terrorism and Proliferation Rod Ewing is the Frank Stanton Professor in Financing, Congress’s Joint Economic Committee, Nuclear Security in the Center for International and the 9/11 Commission. Security and Cooperation in the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and a Professor Edmund G Brown Jr. (Executive Chair) in the Department of Geological Sciences in completed his fourth term as Governor of the State the School of Earth, Energy and Environmental of California in 2019. He began his career in public Sciences at Stanford University. Ewing’s research service in 1969 as a trustee for the LA Community focuses on the back end of the nuclear fuel cycle, College District and became California Secretary mainly nuclear materials and the geochemistry of of State in 1970 and Governor of California in 1974 radionuclides. He is the past president of the and 1978. After his governorship, Brown lectured International Union of Materials Research and traveled widely, practiced law, served as Societies. Ewing has written extensively on issues chairman of the state Democratic Party, and ran for related to nuclear waste management and is co- president. Brown was elected Mayor of Oakland in editor of Radioactive Waste Forms for the 1998 and California Attorney General in 2006; he Future and Uncertainty Underground: Yucca was elected to a third gubernatorial term in 2010 Mountain and the Nation’s High-Level Nuclear and a fourth term in 2014. During this time, Brown Waste. He received the Lomonosov Medal of the helped eliminate the state's multi-billion budget Russian Academy of Sciences in 2006. defcit, spearheaded successful campaigns to provide new funding for California's schools, and Steve Fetter is associate provost, dean of the established a robust Rainy Day Fund to prepare for graduate school, and professor of public policy at the next economic downturn. His administration the University of Maryland. He served for fve established nation-leading targets to protect the years in the White House Ofce of Science and environment and fght climate change. Brown Technology Policy during the Obama attended the University of California, Berkeley, and Administration, where he led the environment and earned a JD at Yale Law School. energy and the national security and international afairs divisions. He is a fellow of the American Physical Society and a member of the Union of

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 12 Biographies (cont.)

Concerned Scientists board of directors and the Wave Observatory (LIGO) collaboration, and was National Academy of Sciences Committee on part of the team that announced the frst detection International Security and Arms Control. He has of gravitational waves in early 2016 and the frst worked on nuclear policy issues in the Pentagon multi-messenger detection of a binary neutron star and the State Department and has been a visiting in 2017. He received a 2012 National Science fellow at Stanford, Harvard, MIT, and Lawrence Foundation CAREER Award, the 2015 Quantrell Livermore National Laboratory. He also served as Award for Excellence in Undergraduate Teaching, associate director of the Joint Global Change and the Breakthrough Prize in Fundamental Research Institute and vice chairman of the Physics in 2016. Holz was selected as a Kavli Fellow Federation of American Scientists. He is a of the National Academy of Sciences and is a recipient of the American Physical Society's Joseph Fellow of the American Physical Society. He A. Burton Forum and Leo Szilard Lectureship received his PhD in physics from the University of awards, the Federation of American Scientists' Chicago and his AB in physics from Princeton Hans Bethe 'Science in the Public Service' award, University. and the Secretary of Defense Medal for Outstanding Public Service. Sivan Kartha is a senior scientist at the Stockholm Environmental Institute whose research and Asha M. George is the executive director of the publications for the past 25 years have focused on Bipartisan Commission on Biodefense. She is a technological options and policy strategies for public health security professional whose research addressing climate change, concentrating most and programmatic emphasis has been practical, recently on equity and efciency in the design of academic, and political. George served in the US an international climate regime. He is a co-leader House of Representatives as a senior professional of SEI’s Gender and Social Equity Programme, and stafer and subcommittee staf director at the co-director of the Climate Equity Reference House Committee on Homeland Security in the Project. His current work deals primarily with the 110th and 111th Congress. She has worked for a economic, political, and ethical dimensions of variety of organizations, including government equitably sharing the efort of an ambitious global contractors, foundations, and non-profts. As a response to climate change. Dr. Kartha has also contractor, she supported and worked with all worked on mitigation scenarios, market federal Departments, especially the Department of mechanisms for climate actions, and the Homeland Security and the Department of Health environmental and socioeconomic impacts of and Human Services. George also served on active biomass energy. His work has enabled him to duty in the US Army as a military intelligence advise and collaborate with diverse organizations, ofcer and as a paratrooper. She is a decorated including the UN Climate Convention Secretariat, Desert Storm Veteran. She holds a Bachelor of Arts various United Nations and World Bank programs, in Natural Sciences from Johns Hopkins University, numerous government policy-making bodies and a Master of Science in Public Health from the agencies, foundations, and civil society University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, and a organizations throughout the developing and Doctorate in Public Health from the University of industrialized world. He served as a coordinating Hawaii at Manoa. She is also a graduate of the lead author in the preparation of the Fifth Harvard University National Preparedness Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel Leadership Initiative. on Climate Change, released in 2014, co-leading the chapter on Equity and Sustainable Development, Daniel Holz is a professor at the University of and has been selected as a lead author for the Chicago in the Departments of Physics, Astronomy upcoming IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, to be & Astrophysics, the Enrico Fermi Institute, and the released in 2021. Kavli Institute for Cosmological Physics. His research focuses on general relativity in the Robert Latif retired from the US Air Force as a context of astrophysics and cosmology. He is a major general in 2006. He is an adjunct professor member of the Laser Interferometer Gravitational- at the University of Notre Dame and a research

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 13 Biographies (cont.) professor at George Mason University’s School of Administration) and certifcates in Managed Care Engineering. He is also a member of the Air Force and Health Care Administration from Benedictine Studies Board, as well as the Intelligence University in Lisle, IL. Community Studies Board and the Committee on International Security and Arms Control of the Steve Miller is Director of the International National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Security Program at the Belfer Center for Science Medicine. Latif's book, Future War, looks at how and International Afairs in Harvard University’s future technology will change virtually every Kennedy School of Government. He is a Fellow of aspect of war as we know it and how we can the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, respond to the serious national security challenges where he is a member of the Committee on ahead. International Security Studies (CISS). Miller is also Co-Chair of the US Pugwash Committee, and is a Herb Lin is a senior research scholar for cyber member of the Council of International Pugwash. policy and security at the Center for International Miller co-directed the Academy’s project on the Security and Cooperation, and Hank J. Holland Global Nuclear Future Initiative with the Bulletin’s Fellow in Cyber Policy and Security at the Hoover Science and Security Board chair, Robert Rosner. Institution, both at Stanford University. His research interests relate broadly to the policy and Raymond Pierrehumbert is Halley Professor of national security dimensions of cybersecurity and Physics at the University of Oxford. He was a lead cyberspace, with focus on ofensive operations in author on the IPCC Third Assessment Report, and cyberspace and information warfare and infuence a co-author of the National Research Council operations. Lin holds additional afliations with report on abrupt climate change. He was awarded a the National Academies, Columbia’s Saltzman John Simon Guggenheim Fellowship in 1996, which Institute, and the Aspen Cybersecurity Group. In was used to launch collaborative work on the 2019, he was elected a fellow of the American climate of Early Mars with collaborators in Paris. Association for the Advancement of Science. In He is a Fellow of the American Geophysical Union 2016, he served on President Obama’s Commission (AGU), a Fellow of the American Academy of Arts on Enhancing National Cybersecurity. He has and Sciences, and has been named Chevalier de previously served as a professional staf member l'Ordre des Palmes Académiques by the Republic and staf scientist for the House Armed Services of France. Pierrehumbert’s central research Committee (1986-1990), where his portfolio interest is the use of fundamental physical included defense policy and arms control issues. principles to elucidate the behavior of the present and past climates of Earth and other planets, Suzet McKinney is the CEO/Executive Director including the growing catalog of exoplanets. He of the Illinois Medical District. The Illinois leads the European Research Council Advance Medical District (IMD), a 24/7/365 environment Grant project EXOCONDENSE. that includes 560 acres of medical research facilities, labs, a biotech business incubator, Robert Rosner (Chair) is the William E. Wrather universities, raw land development areas, four Distinguished Service Professor in the hospitals and more than 40 healthcare related Departments of Astronomy & facilities, is one of the largest urban medical Astrophysics and Physics, and the Harris School of districts in the United States. Dr. McKinney holds Public Policy at the University of Chicago. Rosner her Doctorate degree from the University of served as Director of Argonne National Laboratory, Illinois at Chicago School of Public Health, with a where he had also served as Chief Scientist. His focus on preparedness planning, leadership and current scientifc research is mostly in the areas of workforce development. She received her Bachelor laboratory and astrophysical fuid dynamics and of Arts in Biology from Brandeis University magnetohydrodynamics, and computational (Waltham, MA) where she was also a Howard physics. His policy-oriented work has focused on Hughes Medical Institute Fellow. She received her the future of nuclear power and the back end of the Master of Public Health degree (Health Care nuclear fuel cycle, as well as various aspects of

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 14 Biographies (cont.) electrifying the transport sector. He is a fellow of Susan Solomon is the Lee and Geraldine Martin the American Physical Society, and an elected Professor of Environmental Studies at the member of the American Academy of Arts & Massachusetts Institute of Technology and was the Sciences and the Norwegian Academy of Science Founding Director of the MIT Environmental and Letters. As chair of the Science and Security Solutions Initiative from 2014-2015. She is well Board, Rosner is a member of the Governing known for pioneering work that explained why Board, ex ofcio. there is a hole in the Antarctic ozone layer and is the author of several infuential scientifc papers in Scott Sagan is the Caroline S.G. Munro Professor climate science. Solomon received the Crafoord of Political Science, the Mimi and Peter Haas Prize from the Swedish Academy of Sciences in University Fellow in Undergraduate Education, 2018, the 1999 US National Medal of Science, the and Senior Fellow at the Center for International nation’s highest scientifc award, in 1999, and has Security and Cooperation and the Freeman Spogli also received the Grande Medaille of the French Institute at Stanford University. He also serves as Academy of Sciences, the Blue Planet Prize in Chairman of the American Academy of Arts and Japan, the BBVA Frontiers of Knowledge Award, Sciences’ Committee on International Security and the Volvo Environment Prize. She is a member Studies. Before joining the Stanford faculty, Sagan of the US National Academy of Sciences, the was a lecturer in the Department of Government at French Academy of Sciences, and the Royal Society Harvard University and served as special assistant in the UK. She served as co-chair for the to the director of the Organization of the Joint Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Chiefs of Staf in the Pentagon. Sagan has also (IPCC) fourth climate science assessment report, served as a consultant to the ofce of the Secretary released in 2007. Time magazine named Solomon of Defense and at the Sandia National Laboratory as one of the 100 most infuential people in the and the Los Alamos National Laboratory. world in 2008.

Robert Socolow is professor emeritus in the Sharon Squassoni is a research professor at the Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Institute for International Science and Technology Engineering at Princeton University. From 2000 to Policy, Elliott School of International Afairs, at the 2019, he and Steve Pacala were the co-principal George Washington University. She has specialized investigators of Princeton's Carbon Mitigation in nuclear nonproliferation, arms control and Initiative, a twenty-fve-year (2001-2025) project security policy for three decades, serving in the US supported by BP. His best-known paper, with government at the Arms Control and Disarmament Pacala, was in Science (2004): "Stabilization Agency, the State Department, and the Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the Next Congressional Research Service. Since 2007, she 50 Years with Current Technologies." Socolow is a has directed research programs at the Center for member of the American Academy of Arts and Strategic and International Studies and the Sciences, an associate of the National Research Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. A Council of the National Academies, a fellow of the political scientist by training, she holds degrees American Physical Society, and a fellow of the from the State University of New York at Albany, American Association for the Advancement of the University of Maryland, and the National War Science. His awards include the 2009 Frank Kreith College. Energy Award from the American Society of Mechanical Engineers and the 2005 Axelson Jon Wolfsthal is Director of the Nuclear Crisis Johnson Commemorative Lecture award from the Group, an independent project of Global Zero. Royal Academy of Engineering Sciences of Sweden Wolfsthal served previously as Special Assistant to (IVA). In 2003 he received the Leo Szilard the President of the United States for National Lectureship Award from the American Physical Security Afairs and senior director at the National Society. Security Council for arms control and nonproliferation. During his time in government, he was involved in almost every aspect of US

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 15 Biographies (cont.) nuclear weapons, arms control, nonproliferation and security policy. Previously, Wolfsthal was the Deputy Director of the Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies, and served for three years as special advisor to Vice President Biden on issues of nuclear security and nonproliferation. He served in several capacities during the 1990s at the US Department of Energy, including an on-the-ground assignment in North Korea during 1995-96. With Joseph Cirincione, he is the author of Deadly Arsenals: Tracking Weapons of Mass Destruction. Wolfsthal is a non-resident fellow with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Editor

John Mecklin is the editor-in-chief of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. Previously, he was editor- in-chief of Miller-McCune (since renamed Pacifc Standard), an award-winning national magazine that focused on research-based solutions to major policy problems. Over the preceding 15 years, he was also: the editor of High Country News, a nationally acclaimed magazine that reports on the American West; the consulting executive editor for the launch of Key West, a regional magazine start- up directed by renowned magazine guru Roger Black; and the top editor for award-winning newsweeklies in San Francisco and Phoenix. In an earlier incarnation, he was an investigative reporter at the Houston Post and covered the Persian Gulf War from Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Writers working at his direction have won many major journalism contests, including the George Polk Award, the Investigative Reporters and Editors certifcate, and the Sidney Hillman Award for reporting on social justice issues. Mecklin holds a master in public administration degree from Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government.

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 16 About the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

At our core, the Bulletin of the Atomic The Bulletin has many audiences: the general Scientists is a media organization, publishing a public, which will ultimately beneft or sufer free-access website and a bimonthly magazine. from scientifc breakthroughs; policymakers, But we are much more. The Bulletin’s website, whose duty is to harness those breakthroughs iconic Doomsday Clock, and regular events for good; and the scientists themselves, who equip the public, policymakers, and scientists produce those technological advances and with the information needed to reduce thus bear a special responsibility. Our manmade threats to our existence. The community is international, with half of our Bulletin focuses on three main areas: nuclear website visitors coming from outside the risk, climate change, and disruptive United States. It is also young. Half are under technologies. What connects these topics is a the age of 35. driving belief that because humans created them, we can control them. To learn more, visit our website:

The Bulletin is an independent, nonproft 501 https://thebulletin.org (c) (3) organization. We gather the most informed and infuential voices tracking manmade threats and bring their innovative thinking to a global audience. We apply intellectual rigor to the conversation and do not shrink from alarming truths.

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 17 Timeline of Doomsday Clock changes

2020 IT IS 100 SECONDS TO MIDNIGHT obvious and imminent. The opportunity to reduce Humanity continues to face two the danger is equally clear. The world has seen the simultaneous existential dangers—nuclear threat posed by the misuse of information war and climate change—that are compounded by technology and witnessed the vulnerability of a threat multiplier, cyber-enabled information democracies to disinformation. But there is a fip warfare, that undercuts society’s ability to respond. side to the abuse of social media. Leaders react Faced with this daunting threat landscape and a when citizens insist they do so, and citizens around new willingness of political leaders to reject the the world can use the power of the internet to negotiations and institutions that can protect improve the long-term prospects of their children civilization over the long term, the Science and and grandchildren. They can insist on facts, and Security Board moved the Doomsday Clock 20 discount nonsense. They can demand action to seconds closer to midnight—closer to apocalypse reduce the existential threat of nuclear war and than ever. In so doing, board members are unchecked climate change. They can seize the explicitly warning leaders and citizens around the opportunity to make a safer and saner world. world that the international security situation is now more dangerous than it has ever been, even at 2017 IT IS TWO AND A HALF MINUTES the height of the Cold War. TO MIDNIGHT For the last two years, the minute hand of the Doomsday Clock stayed 2019 IT IS STILL 2 MINUTES TO set at three minutes before the hour, the closest it MIDNIGHT The “new abnormal” that we had been to midnight since the early 1980s. In its describe, and that the world now inhabits, two most recent annual announcements on the is unsustainable and extremely dangerous. The Clock, the Science and Security Board warned: world security situation can be improved, if “The probability of global catastrophe is very high, leaders seek change and citizens demand it. It is and the actions needed to reduce the risks of two minutes to midnight, but there is no reason the disaster must be taken very soon.” In 2017, we fnd Doomsday Clock cannot move away from the danger to be even greater, the need for action catastrophe. It has done so in the past, because more urgent. It is two and a half minutes to wise leaders acted— under pressure from midnight, the Clock is ticking, global danger looms. informed and engaged citizens around the world. Wise public ofcials should act immediately, Today, citizens in every country can use the power guiding humanity away from the brink. If they do of the Internet to fght against social media not, wise citizens must step forward and lead the disinformation and improve the long-term way. prospects of their children and grandchildren. They can insist on facts, and discount nonsense. 2016 IT IS STILL 3 MINUTES TO They can demand action to reduce the existential MIDNIGHT “Last year, the Science and threat of nuclear war and unchecked climate Security Board moved the Doomsday Clock change. Given the inaction of their leaders to date, forward to three minutes to midnight, noting: ‘The citizens of the world should make a loud and clear probability of global catastrophe is very high, and demand: #RewindTheDoomsdayClock. the actions needed to reduce the risks of disaster must be taken very soon.’ That probability has not 2018 IT IS 2 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT been reduced. The Clock ticks. Global danger The failure of world leaders to address the looms. Wise leaders should act—immediately.” largest threats to humanity’s future is lamentable—but that failure can be reversed. It is 2015 IT IS 3 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT two minutes to midnight, but the Doomsday Clock “Unchecked climate change, global nuclear has ticked away from midnight in the past, and weapons modernizations, and outsized during the next year, the world can again move it nuclear weapons arsenals pose extraordinary and further from apocalypse. The warning the Science undeniable threats to the continued existence and Security Board now sends is clear, the danger of humanity, and world leaders have failed to

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 18 Timeline (cont.) act with the speed or on the scale required to 2007 IT IS 5 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT protect citizens from potential catastrophe. These The world stands at the brink of a second failures of political leadership endanger every nuclear age. The United States and Russia person on Earth.” Despite some modestly positive remain ready to stage a nuclear attack within developments in the climate change arena, current minutes, North Korea conducts a nuclear test, and eforts are entirely insufcient to prevent a many in the international community worry that catastrophic warming of Earth. Meanwhile, the Iran plans to acquire the Bomb. Climate change United States and Russia have embarked on also presents a dire challenge to humanity. Damage massive programs to modernize their nuclear to ecosystems is already taking place; fooding, triads—thereby undermining existing nuclear destructive storms, increased drought, and polar weapons treaties. “The clock ticks now at just ice melt are causing loss of life and property. three minutes to midnight because international leaders are failing to perform their most important 2002 IT IS 7 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT duty—ensuring and preserving the health and Concerns regarding a nuclear terrorist vitality of human civilization.” attack underscore the enormous amount of unsecured—and sometimes unaccounted for— 2012 IT IS 5 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT weapon-grade nuclear materials located “The challenges to rid the world of nuclear throughout the world. Meanwhile, the United weapons, harness nuclear power, and meet States expresses a desire to design new nuclear the nearly inexorable climate disruptions from weapons, with an emphasis on those able to global warming are complex and interconnected. destroy hardened and deeply buried targets. It also In the face of such complex problems, it is difcult rejects a series of arms control treaties and to see where the capacity lies to address these announces it will withdraw from the Anti-Ballistic challenges.” Political processes seem wholly Missile Treaty. inadequate; the potential for nuclear weapons use in regional conficts in the Middle East, Northeast 1998 IT IS 9 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT Asia, and South Asia are alarming; safer nuclear India and Pakistan stage nuclear weapons reactor designs need to be developed and built, tests only three weeks apart. “The tests are and more stringent oversight, training, and a symptom of the failure of the international attention are needed to prevent future disasters; community to fully commit itself to control the the pace of technological solutions to address spread of nuclear weapons—and to work toward climate change may not be adequate to meet the substantial reductions in the numbers of these hardships that large-scale disruption of the climate weapons,” a dismayed Bulletin reports. Russia and portends. the United States continue to serve as poor examples to the rest of the world. Together, they 2010 IT IS 6 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT still maintain 7,000 warheads ready to fre at each International cooperation rules the day. other within 15 minutes. Talks between Washington and Moscow for a follow-on agreement to the Strategic Arms 1995 IT IS 14 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT Reduction Treaty are nearly complete, and more Hopes for a large post-Cold War peace negotiations for further reductions in the U.S. dividend and a renouncing of nuclear and Russian nuclear arsenal are already planned. weapons fade. Particularly in the United States, Additionally, Barack Obama becomes the frst U.S. hard-liners seem reluctant to soften their rhetoric president to publicly call for a nuclear-weapon- or actions, as they claim that a resurgent Russia free world. The dangers posed by climate change could provide as much of a threat as the Soviet are still great, but there are pockets of progress. Union. Such talk slows the rollback in global Most notably: At Copenhagen, the developing and nuclear forces; more than 40,000 nuclear weapons industrialized countries agree to take remain worldwide. There is also concern that responsibility for carbon emissions and to limit terrorists could exploit poorly secured nuclear global temperature rise to 2 degrees Celsius. facilities in the former Soviet Union.

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 19 Timeline (cont.)

1991 IT IS 17 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT to fout the few arms control agreements in place With the Cold War ofcially over, the by seeking an expansive, space-based anti-ballistic United States and Russia begin making missile capability, raising worries that a new arms deep cuts to their nuclear arsenals. The Strategic race will begin. Arms Reduction Treaty greatly reduces the number of strategic nuclear weapons deployed by 1981 IT IS 4 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT the two former adversaries. Better still, a series of The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan hardens unilateral initiatives remove most of the the U.S. nuclear posture. Before he leaves intercontinental ballistic missiles and bombers in ofce, President Jimmy Carter pulls the United both countries from hair-trigger alert. “The States from the Olympic Games in Moscow and illusion that tens of thousands of nuclear weapons considers ways in which the United States could are a guarantor of national security has been win a nuclear war. The rhetoric only intensifes stripped away,” the Bulletin declares. with the election of Ronald Reagan as president. Reagan scraps any talk of arms control and 1990 IT IS 10 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT proposes that the best way to end the Cold War is As one Eastern European country after for the United States to win it. another (Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Romania) frees itself from Soviet control, Soviet 1980 IT IS 7 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev refuses to Thirty-fve years after the start of the intervene, halting the ideological battle for Europe nuclear age and after some promising and signifcantly diminishing the risk of all-out disarmament gains, the United States and the nuclear war. In late 1989, the Berlin Wall falls, Soviet Union still view nuclear weapons as an symbolically ending the Cold War. “Forty- four integral component of their national security. This years after Winston Churchill’s ‘Iron Curtain’ stalled progress discourages the Bulletin: “[The speech, the myth of monolithic communism has Soviet Union and United States have] been been shattered for all to see,” the Bulletin behaving like what may best be described as proclaims. ‘nucleoholics’—drunks who continue to insist that the drink being consumed is positively ‘the last 1988 IT IS 6 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT one,’ but who can always fnd a good excuse for The United States and Soviet Union sign ‘just one more round.’” the historic Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, the frst agreement to actually ban a 1974 IT IS 9 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT whole category of nuclear weapons. The South Asia gets the Bomb, as India tests its leadership shown by President Ronald Reagan and frst nuclear device. And any gains in Soviet Premier Mikhail Gorbachev makes the previous arms control agreements seem like a treaty a reality, but public opposition to U.S. mirage. The United States and Soviet Union appear nuclear weapons in Western Europe inspires it. For to be modernizing their nuclear forces, not years, such intermediate-range missiles had kept reducing them. Thanks to the deployment of Western Europe in the crosshairs of the two multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles superpowers. (MIRV), both countries can now load their intercontinental ballistic missiles with more 1984 IT IS 3 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT nuclear warheads than before. U.S.-Soviet relations reach their iciest point in decades. Dialogue between the two 1972 IT IS 12 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT superpowers virtually stops. “Every channel of The United States and Soviet Union communications has been constricted or shut attempt to curb the race for nuclear down; every form of contact has been attenuated superiority by signing the Strategic Arms or cut of. And arms control negotiations have been Limitation Treaty (SALT) and the Anti-Ballistic reduced to a species of propaganda,” a concerned Missile (ABM) Treaty. The two treaties force a Bulletin informs readers. The United States seems nuclear parity of sorts. SALT limits the number of

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 20 Timeline (cont.) ballistic missile launchers either country can such as the 1956 Egyptian-Israeli dispute. Joint possess, and the ABM Treaty stops an arms race in projects that build trust and constructive dialogue defensive weaponry from developing. between third parties also quell diplomatic hostilities. Scientists initiate many of these 1969 IT IS 10 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT measures, helping establish the International Nearly all of the world’s nations come Geophysical Year, a series of coordinated, together to sign the Nuclear Non- worldwide scientifc observations, and the Proliferation Treaty. The deal is simple—the Pugwash Conferences, which allow Soviet and nuclear weapon states vow to help the treaty’s American scientists to interact. non-nuclear weapon signatories develop nuclear power if they promise to forego producing nuclear 1953 IT IS 2 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT weapons. The nuclear weapon states also pledge to After much debate, the United States abolish their own arsenals when political decides to pursue the hydrogen bomb, a conditions allow for it. Although Israel, India, and weapon far more powerful than any atomic bomb. Pakistan refuse to sign the treaty, the Bulletin is In October 1952, the United States tests its frst cautiously optimistic: “The great powers have thermonuclear device, obliterating a Pacifc Ocean made the frst step. They must proceed without islet in the process; nine months later, the Soviets delay to the next one—the dismantling, gradually, test an H-bomb of their own. “The hands of the of their own oversized military establishments.” Clock of Doom have moved again,” the Bulletin announces. “Only a few more swings of the 1968 IT IS 7 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT pendulum, and, from Moscow to Chicago, atomic Regional wars rage. U.S. involvement in explosions will strike midnight for Western Vietnam intensifes, India and Pakistan civilization.” battle in 1965, and Israel and its Arab neighbors renew hostilities in 1967. Worse yet, France and 1949 IT IS 3 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT China develop nuclear weapons to assert The Soviet Union denies it, but in the fall, themselves as global players. “There is little reason President Harry Truman tells the American to feel sanguine about the future of our society on public that the Soviets tested their frst nuclear the world scale,” the Bulletin laments. “There is a device, ofcially starting the arms race. “We do not mass revulsion against war, yes; but no sign of advise Americans that doomsday is near and that conscious intellectual leadership in a rebellion they can expect atomic bombs to start falling on against the deadly heritage of international their heads a month or year from now,” the Bulletin anarchy.” explains. “But we think they have reason to be deeply alarmed and to be prepared for grave 1963 IT IS 12 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT decisions.” After a decade of almost non-stop nuclear tests, the United States and Soviet Union 1947 IT IS 7 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT As sign the Partial Test Ban Treaty, which ends all the Bulletin evolves from a newsletter into atmospheric nuclear testing. While it does not a magazine, the Clock appears on the cover outlaw underground testing, the treaty represents for the frst time. It symbolizes the urgency of the progress in at least slowing the arms race. It also nuclear dangers that the magazine’s founders—and signals awareness among the Soviets and United the broader scientifc community—are trying to States that they need to work together to prevent convey to the public and political leaders around nuclear annihilation. the world.

1960 IT IS 7 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT Political actions belie the tough talk of “massive retaliation.” For the frst time, the United States and Soviet Union appear eager to avoid direct confrontation in regional conficts

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 21