It is 2 minutes to midnight

2018 Doomsday Clock Statement

Science and Security Board Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

Editor, John Mecklin

IT IS 2 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT ® Statement from the President and CEO

The year just past proved perilous and chaotic, the many other foundations, corporations, and a year in which many of the risks foreshadowed individuals who contribute regularly to the in our last Clock statement came into full relief. Bulletin’s mission. We are deeply grateful for this In 2017, we saw reckless language in the nuclear ongoing support. realm heat up already dangerous situations and re-learned that minimizing evidence-based It is urgent that, collectively, we put in the work assessments regarding climate and other global necessary to produce a 2019 Clock statement that challenges does not lead to better public policies. rewinds the Doomsday Clock. Get engaged, get involved, and help create that future. The time is Although the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists now. focuses on nuclear risk, climate change, and emerging technologies, the nuclear landscape Rachel Bronson, PhD takes center stage in this year’s Clock statement. President & CEO Major nuclear actors are on the cusp of a new 25 January, 2018 arms race, one that will be very expensive Chicago, IL and will increase the likelihood of accidents and misperceptions. Across the globe, nuclear weapons are poised to become more rather than less usable because of nations’ investments in their nuclear arsenals. This is a concern that the Bulletin has been highlighting for some time, but momentum toward this new reality is increasing. As you will see in the discussion that follows, the Bulletin’s Science and Security Board has once again assessed progress—actually, lack thereof—in managing the technologies that can bring humanity both relief and harm. It is my hope that the statement focuses world attention on today’s dangerous trajectory and urges leaders and citizens alike to redouble their efforts in committing to a path that advances the health and safety of the planet. The Board has provided recommendations for how we might go about achieving this end, and it is urgent that we take heed. I commend the members of the Science and Security Board for the work they undertake every day to put us on a safer footing. As always, John Mecklin’s talented pen has helped pull together wide-ranging contributions and allowed a large group of engaged experts to speak with one voice. The Bulletin couldn’t serve its proper role without financial support from the Carnegie Corporation of New York, the MacArthur Foundation, and

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists § 1 It is now two minutes to midnight

Editor’s note: Founded in 1945 by University of Chicago scientists who had helped develop the first atomic weapons in the Manhattan Project, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists created the Doomsday Clock two years later, using the imagery of apocalypse (midnight) and the contemporary idiom of nuclear explosion (countdown to zero) to convey threats to humanity and the planet. The decision to move (or to leave in place) the minute hand of the Doomsday Clock is made every year by the Bulletin’s Science and Security Board in consultation with its Board of Sponsors, which includes 15 Nobel laureates. The Clock has become a universally recognized indicator of the world’s vulnerability to catastrophe from nuclear weapons, climate change, and new technologies emerging in other domains. A printable PDF of this statement, complete with the President and CEO’s statement and Science and Security Board biographies, is available here. To: Leaders and citizens of the world In South Asia, Pakistan and India have continued Re: Two minutes to midnight to build ever-larger arsenals of nuclear weapons. Date: January 25, 2018 And in the Middle East, uncertainty about In 2017, world leaders failed to respond effectively continued US support for the landmark Iranian to the looming threats of nuclear war and climate nuclear deal adds to a bleak overall picture. change, making the world security situation more dangerous than it was a year ago—and as To call the world nuclear situation dire is to dangerous as it has been since World War II. understate the danger—and its immediacy. The greatest risks last year arose in the nuclear On the climate change front, the danger may realm. North Korea’s nuclear weapons program seem less immediate, but avoiding catastrophic made remarkable progress in 2017, increasing temperature increases in the long run requires risks to North Korea urgent attention now. Global itself, other countries carbon dioxide emissions have North Korea’s nuclear weapons not yet shown the beginnings of in the region, and the program made remarkable United States. Hyperbolic the sustained decline towards progress in 2017, increasing zero that must occur if ever- rhetoric and provocative risks to itself, other countries actions by both sides have greater warming is to be avoided. in the region, and the United The nations of the world will increased the possibility States. of nuclear war by accident have to significantly decrease or miscalculation. their greenhouse gas emissions to keep climate risks manageable, But the dangers brewing on the Korean Peninsula and so far, the global response has fallen far short were not the only nuclear risks evident in 2017: of meeting this challenge. The United States and Russia remained at odds, continuing military exercises along the borders Beyond the nuclear and climate domains, of NATO, undermining the Intermediate-Range technological change is disrupting democracies Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF), upgrading their around the world as states seek and exploit nuclear arsenals, and eschewing arms control opportunities to use information technologies as negotiations. weapons, among them internet-based deception campaigns aimed at undermining elections and In the Asia-Pacific region, tensions over the South popular confidence in institutions essential to free China Sea have increased, with relations between thought and global security. the United States and China insufficient to re- establish a stable security situation. The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists Science and Security Board believes the perilous world

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists § 2 security situation just described would, in itself, sophisticated nuclear weapons. North Korea justify moving the minute hand of the Doomsday has or soon will have capabilities to match its Clock closer to midnight. verbal threats—specifically, a thermonuclear warhead and a ballistic missile that can carry it But there has also been a breakdown in the to the US mainland. In September, North Korea international order that has been dangerously tested what experts assess to be a true two-stage exacerbated by recent US actions. In 2017, thermonuclear device, and in November, it tested the United States backed away from its long- the Hwasong-15 missile, which experts believe standing leadership role in the world, reducing has a range of over 8,000 kilometers. The United its commitment to seek common ground and States and its allies, Japan and South Korea, undermining the overall effort toward solving responded with more frequent and larger military pressing global governance challenges. Neither exercises, while China and Russia proposed a allies nor adversaries have been able to reliably freeze by North Korea of nuclear and missile tests predict US actions—or understand when US in exchange for a freeze in US exercises. pronouncements are real, and when they are mere rhetoric. International diplomacy has been The failure to secure a temporary freeze in 2017 reduced to name-calling, giving it a surrealistic was unsurprising to observers of the downward sense of unreality that makes the world security spiral of nuclear rhetoric between US President situation ever more threatening. Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. The failure to rein in North Korea’s Because of the extraordinary danger of the current nuclear program will reverberate not just in the moment, the Science and Security Board today Asia-Pacific, as neighboring countries review moves the minute hand of the Doomsday Clock 30 their security options, but more seconds closer to catastrophe. widely, as all countries consider It is now two minutes to It is now two minutes to the costs and benefits of the midnight—the closest the midnight—the closest the international framework of Clock has ever been to Clock has ever been to nonproliferation treaties and Doomsday, and as close as it Doomsday, and as close as it agreements. was in 1953, at the height of the was in 1953, at the height of Cold War. the Cold War. Nuclear risks have been compounded by US-Russia The Science and Security relations that now feature Board hopes this resetting more conflict than cooperation. of the Clock will be interpreted exactly as it is Coordination on nuclear risk reduction is all but meant—as an urgent warning of global danger. dead, and no solution to disputes over the INF The time for world leaders to address looming Treaty—a landmark agreement to rid Europe nuclear danger and the continuing march of of medium-range nuclear missiles—is readily climate change is long past. The time for the apparent. Both sides allege violations, but Russia’s citizens of the world to demand such action is deployment of a new ground-launched cruise now: #rewindtheDoomsdayClock. missile, if not addressed, could trigger a collapse The untenable nuclear threat. The risk that of the treaty. Such a collapse would make what nuclear weapons may be used—intentionally or should have been a relatively easy five-year because of miscalculation—grew last year around extension of the New START arms control pact the globe. much harder to achieve and could terminate an arms control process that dates back to the early North Korea has long defied UN Security 1970s. Council resolutions to cease its nuclear and ballistic missile tests, but the acceleration of For the first time in many years, in fact, no US- its tests in 2017 reflects new resolve to acquire Russian nuclear arms control negotiations are

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists § 3 under way. New strategic stability talks begun in administration’s Nuclear Posture Review appears April are potentially useful, but so far they lack likely to increase the types and roles of nuclear the energy and political commitment required weapons in US defense plans and lower the for them to bear fruit. More important, Russia’s threshold to nuclear use. In South Asia, emphasis invasion and annexation of Crimea and semi- on nuclear and missile capabilities grows. covert support of separatists in eastern Ukraine Conventional force imbalances and destabilizing have sparked concerns that Russia will support plans for nuclear weapons use early in any conflict similar “hybrid” conflicts in new NATO members continue to plague the subcontinent. that it borders—actions that could provoke a crisis at almost any time. Additional flashpoints Reflecting long decades of frustration with slow could emerge if Russia attempts to exploit friction progress toward nuclear disarmament, states between the United States and its NATO partners, signed a Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear whether arising from disputes on burden-sharing, Weapons, commonly known as the ban treaty, European Union membership, and trade—or at the United Nations this past September. The relating to policies on Israel, treaty—championed by the International Campaign to Iran, and terrorism in the In the past year, US allies have Middle East. Abolish Nuclear Weapons, needed reassurance about which has been awarded the In the past year, US allies American intentions more than Nobel Peace Prize for its have needed reassurance ever. Instead, they have been work—is a symbolic victory for about American intentions forced to negotiate a thicket of those seeking a world without more than ever. Instead, they conflicting policy statements... nuclear weapons and a strong have been forced to negotiate expression of the frustration a thicket of conflicting policy with global disarmament statements from a US administration weakened in efforts to date. Predictably, countries with nuclear its cadre of foreign policy professionals, suffering weapons boycotted the negotiations, and none has from turnover in senior leadership, led by an signed the ban treaty. Their increased reliance on undisciplined and disruptive president, and unable nuclear weapons, threats, and doctrines that could to develop, coordinate, and clearly communicate make the use of those weapons more likely stands a coherent nuclear policy. This inconsistency in stark contrast to the expectations of the rest of constitutes a major challenge for deterrence, the world. alliance management, and global stability. It has made the existing nuclear risks greater than An insufficient response to climate change. necessary and added to their complexity. Last year, the US government pursued unwise and ineffectual policies on climate change, Especially in the case of the Iran nuclear deal, following through on a promise to derail past allies are perplexed. While President Trump US climate policies. The Trump administration, has steadfastly opposed the agreement that his which includes avowed climate denialists in top predecessor and US allies negotiated to keep Iran positions at the Environmental Protection Agency, from developing nuclear weapons, he has never the Interior Department, and other key agencies, successfully articulated practical alternatives. has announced its plan to withdraw from the His instruction to Congress in 2017 to legislate a Paris Agreement. In its rush to dismantle rational different approach resulted in a stalemate. The climate and energy policy, the administration has future of the Iran deal, at this writing, remains ignored scientific fact and well-founded economic uncertain. analyses. In the United States, Russia, and elsewhere around These US government climate decisions the world, plans for nuclear force modernization transpired against a backdrop of worsening and development continue apace. The Trump climate change and high-impact weather-related

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists § 4 disasters. This year past, the Caribbean region and climate commitments and to the validity of other parts of North America suffered a season scientific facts. of historic damage from exceedingly powerful hurricanes. Extreme heat waves occurred in This reaffirmation is reassuring, and other Australia, South America, Asia, Europe, and countries have maintained their steadfast support California, with mounting evidence that heat- for climate action, reconfirmed their commitments related illness and death are correspondingly to global climate cooperation, and clearly increasing. The Arctic ice cap achieved its acknowledged that more needs to be done. French smallest-ever winter maximum in 2017, the third President Emmanuel Macron’s sober message to year in a row that this record has been broken. The global leaders assembled at December’s global United States has witnessed devastating wildfires, climate summit in Paris was a reality check after likely exacerbated by extreme drought and the heady climate negotiations his country hosted subsequent heavy rains that spurred underbrush two years earlier: “We’re losing the battle. We’re growth. When the data are assessed, 2017 is almost not moving quickly enough. We all need to act.” certain to continue the trend of exceptional global And indeed, after plateauing for a few years, warmth: All the warmest years in the instrumental greenhouse gas emissions resumed their stubborn record, which extends back to the 1800s, have— rise in 2017. excepting one year in the late 1990s—occurred As we have noted before, the true measure of the in the 21st century. https://climate.nasa.gov/ Paris Agreement is whether nations actually fulfill news/2655/october-2017-was-the-second-warmest- their pledges to cut emissions, strengthen those october-on-record/ pledges, and see to it that global greenhouse gas Despite the sophisticated disinformation emissions start declining in short order and head campaign run by climate denialists, the unfolding toward zero. As we drift yet farther from this goal, consequences of an altered climate are a the urgency of shifting course becomes greater, harrowing testament to an undeniable reality: and the existential threat posed by climate change The science linking looms larger. climate change to human Despite the sophisticated Emerging technologies and global activity—mainly the disinformation campaign risk. The Science and Security burning of fossil fuels that run by climate denialists, Board is deeply concerned about produce carbon dioxide the unfolding consequences the loss of public trust in political and other greenhouse of an altered climate are a institutions, in the media, in science, gases—is sound. The harrowing testament to an and in facts themselves—a loss that world continues to warm undeniable reality.... the abuse of information technology as costly impacts mount, has fostered. Attempts to intervene and there is evidence that in elections through sophisticated overall rates of sea level hacking operations and the spread rise are accelerating—regardless of protestations of disinformation have threatened democracy, to the contrary. which relies on an informed electorate to reach Especially against these trends, it is heartening reasonable decisions on public policy—including that the US government’s defection from the policy relating to nuclear weapons, climate change, Paris Agreement did not prompt its unravelling and other global threats. Meanwhile, corporate or diminish its support within the United States leaders in the information domain, including at large. The “We Are Still In” movement signals a established media outlets and internet companies strong commitment within the United States—by such as Facebook and Google, have been slow to some 1,700 businesses, 250 cities, 200 communities adopt protocols to prevent misuse of their services of faith, and nine states, representing more than 40 and protect citizens from manipulation. The percent of the US population—to its international international community should establish new Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists § 5 measures that discourage and penalize all cross- by scientists since 1945, when each major nation border subversions of democracy. will hold the power of destroying, at will, the urban civilization of any other nation, is close at Last year, the Science and Security Board warned hand.” that “[t]echnological innovation is occurring at a speed that challenges society’s ability to keep The Science and Security Board now again moves pace. While limited at the current time, potentially the hands of the Clock to two minutes before existential threats posed by a host of emerging midnight. But the current, extremely dangerous technologies need to be monitored, and to the state of world affairs need not be permanent. The extent possible anticipated, as the 21st century means for managing dangerous technology and unfolds.” reducing global-scale risk exist; indeed, many of them are well-known and within society’s reach, if If anything, the velocity of technological change leaders pay reasonable attention to preserving the has only increased in the past year, and so our long-term prospects of humanity, and if citizens warning holds for 2018. But beyond monitoring demand that they do so. advances in emerging technology, the board believes that world leaders also need to seek better This is a dangerous time, but the danger is of collective methods of managing those advances, our own making. Humankind has invented the so the positive aspects of new technologies are implements of apocalypse; so can it invent the encouraged and malign uses discovered and methods of controlling and eventually eliminating countered. The sophisticated hacking of the them. This year, leaders and citizens of the world “Internet of Things,” can move the Doomsday Clock and including computer the world away from the metaphorical systems that control The increasing pace of midnight of global catastrophe by major financial and technological change taking these common-sense actions: power infrastructure requires faster development • US President Donald Trump should and access to more of strong public institutions refrain from provocative rhetoric than 20 billion and new management regarding North Korea, recognizing personal devices; regimes. the development of the impossibility of predicting North autonomous weaponry Korean reactions. that makes “kill” • The US and North Korean governments should decisions without human supervision; and the open multiple channels of communication. At a possible misuse of advances in synthetic biology, minimum, military-to-military communications including the revolutionary Crispr gene-editing can help reduce the likelihood of inadvertent tool, already pose potential global security risks. war on the Korean Peninsula. Keeping Those risks could expand without strong public diplomatic channels open for talks without institutions and new management regimes. The preconditions is another common-sense increasing pace of technological change requires way to reduce tensions. As leading security faster development of those tools. expert Siegfried Hecker of Stanford University How to turn back the Clock. In 1953, former recently wrote: “Such talks should not be seen Manhattan Project scientist and Bulletin editor as a reward or concession to Pyongyang, nor Eugene Rabinowitch set the hands of the construed as signaling acceptance of a nuclear- Doomsday Clock at two minutes to midnight, armed North Korea. They could, however, writing, “The achievement of a thermonuclear deliver the message that while Washington explosion by the Soviet Union, following on fully intends to defend itself and its allies the heels of the development of ‘thermonuclear from any attack with a devastating retaliatory devices’ in America, means that the time, dreaded response, it does not otherwise intend to attack

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists § 6 North Korea or pursue regime change.” https:// Citizens should insist that their governments thebulletin.org/time-insert-control-rods-north- acknowledge it and act accordingly. korea11198 • Governments around the world should • The world community should pursue, as a redouble their efforts to reduce greenhouse gas short-term goal, the cessation of North Korea’s emissions so they go well beyond the initial, nuclear weapon and ballistic missile tests. inadequate pledges under the Paris Agreement. North Korea is the only country to violate the The temperature goal under that agreement— norm against nuclear testing in 20 years. Over to keep warming well below 2 degrees Celsius time, the United States should seek North above preindustrial levels—is consistent Korea’s signature on the Comprehensive with consensus views on climate science, is Nuclear Test Ban Treaty—and then, along with eminently achievable, and is economically China, at long last also ratify the treaty. viable, provided that poorer countries are given the support they need to make the post-carbon • The Trump administration should abide by transition. But the time window for achieving the terms of the Joint Comprehensive Plan this goal is rapidly closing. of Action for Iran’s nuclear program unless credible evidence emerges that Iran is not • The international community should establish complying with the agreement or Iran agrees new protocols to discourage and penalize the to an alternative approach misuse of information technology that meets US national to undermine public trust in security needs. The failure of world political institutions, in the media, leaders to address in science, and in the existence • The United States and the largest threats to of objective reality itself. Strong Russia should discuss humanity’s future is and accountable institutions are and adopt measures to lamentable—but that necessary to prevent deception prevent peacetime military failure can be reversed. campaigns that are a real threat to incidents along the borders effective democracies, reducing of NATO. Provocative their ability to enact policies to military exercises and address nuclear weapons, climate change, and maneuvers hold the potential for crisis other global dangers. escalation. Both militaries must exercise restraint and professionalism, adhering to • The countries of the world should collaborate all norms developed to avoid conflict and on creating institutions specifically assigned accidental encounters. to explore and address potentially malign or catastrophic misuses of new technologies, • US and Russian leaders should return to the particularly as regards autonomous weaponry negotiating table to resolve differences over that makes “kill” decisions without human the INF treaty; to seek further reductions in supervision and advances in synthetic biology nuclear arms; to discuss a lowering of the alert that could, if misused, pose a global threat. status of the nuclear arsenals of both countries; to limit nuclear modernization programs that The failure of world leaders to address the largest threaten to create a new nuclear arms race; and threats to humanity’s future is lamentable—but to ensure that new tactical or low-yield nuclear that failure can be reversed. It is two minutes to weapons are not built and that existing tactical midnight, but the Doomsday Clock has ticked weapons are never used on the battlefield. away from midnight in the past, and during the next year, the world can again move it further from • US citizens should demand, in all legal ways, apocalypse. The warning the Science and Security climate action from their government. Climate Board now sends is clear, the danger obvious and change is a real and serious threat to humanity.

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists § 7 imminent. The opportunity to reduce the danger is equally clear. The world has seen the threat posed by the misuse of information technology and witnessed the vulnerability of democracies to disinformation. But there is a flip side to the abuse of social media. Leaders react when citizens insist they do so, and citizens around the world can use the power of the internet to improve the long-term prospects of their children and grandchildren. They can insist on facts, and discount nonsense. They can demand action to reduce the existential threat of nuclear war and unchecked climate change. They can seize the opportunity to make a safer and saner world. They can #rewindtheDoomsdayClock.

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists § 8 Science and security board biographies

Rachel Bronson (ex officio SASB)is the Rod Ewing is the Frank Stanton Professor in President and CEO of the Bulletin of the Atomic Nuclear Security in the Center for International Scientists, where she oversees the publishing Security and Cooperation in the Freeman Spogli programs, the management of the Doomsday Institute for International Studies and a Professor Clock, and a growing set of activities around in the Department of Geological Sciences in nuclear risk, climate change, and disruptive the School of Earth, Environmental and Energy technologies. Before joining the Bulletin, she Sciences at Stanford University. Ewing’s research served as vice president for Studies at The focuses on the back end of the nuclear fuel cycle, Chicago Council on Global Affairs, adjunct mainly nuclear materials and the geochemistry professor of “Global Energy” at the Kellogg School of radionuclides. He is the past president of of Management, and senior fellow and director the International Union of Materials Research of Middle East studies at the Council on Foreign Societies. Ewing has written extensively on issues Relations, among other positions. Her book, related to nuclear waste management and is co- Thicker than Oil: America’s Uneasy Partnership editor of Radioactive Waste Forms for the Future with Saudi Arabia (Oxford University Press, 2006), and Uncertainty Underground: Yucca Mountain and has been translated into Japanese and published the Nation’s High-Level Nuclear Waste. He received in paperback. Her writings and commentary have the Lomonosov Medal of the Russian Academy of appeared in outlets including Foreign Affairs, Sciences in 2006. The New York Times, The Washington Post, “PBS NewsHour,” “Charlie Rose,” and “The Daily Show.” Daniel Holz is an Associate Professor in Physics, Bronson has served as a consultant to NBC News Astronomy & Astrophysics, the Enrico Fermi and testified before the congressional Task Force Institute, and the Kavli Institute for Cosmological on Anti-Terrorism and Proliferation Financing, Physics, at the University of Chicago. His research Congress’s Joint Economic Committee, and the focuses on general relativity in the context of 9/11 Commission. astrophysics and cosmology. He is a member of the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Lynn Eden is Senior Research Scholar (Emeritus) Observatory (LIGO) collaboration, and was part at Stanford University’s Center for International of the team that announced the first detection Security and Cooperation. Eden is also co-chair of of gravitational waves in early 2016. He received US Pugwash and a member of the International a 2012 National Science Foundation CAREER Pugwash Council. Her scholarly work focuses Award, the 2015 Quantrell Award for Excellence in on the military and society; science, technology, Undergraduate Teaching, and the Breakthrough and organizations; and US nuclear weapons Prize in Fundamental Physics in 2016, and was history and policy. Eden’s Whole World on Fire: selected as a Kavli Fellow of the National Academy Organizations, Knowledge, and Nuclear Weapons of Sciences in 2017. Holz received his PhD in Devastation won the American Sociological physics from the University of Chicago and his AB Association’s 2004 Robert K. Merton award for in physics from Princeton University. best book in science and technology studies. Her current research and writing (mostly Sivan Kartha is a Senior Scientist at Stockholm historical) ask how a specific US military planning Environmental Institute whose research and organization has enabled very good people to publications for the past 20 years have focused plan what, if put into action, could or would result on technological options and policy strategies in the deaths of tens or hundreds of millions for addressing climate change, concentrating of people. In other words, how do US military most recently on equity and efficiency in the officers make plans to fight and prevail in nuclear design of an international climate regime. He is war? a co-Leader of SEI’s Gender and Social Equity Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists § 9 Biographies (continued)

Programme, and co-Director of the Climate early universe, the nature of dark matter, general Equity Reference Project. His current work deals relativity and neutrino astrophysics. He has primarily with the economic, political, and ethical written 10 books, including the international dimensions of equitably sharing the effort of an bestsellers The Physics of Star Trek, A Universe ambitious global response to climate change. Dr. from Nothing, and his latest book, The Greatest Kartha has also worked on mitigation scenarios, Story Ever Told—So Far, which was released market mechanisms for climate actions, and the last year. He writes regularly for magazines environmental and socioeconomic impacts of and newspapers including The New York Times biomass energy. His work has enabled him to and The New Yorker, and frequently appears on advise and collaborate with diverse organizations, radio and television, as well as, most recently, including the UN Climate Convention Secretariat, in several feature films. Among his numerous various United Nations and World Bank programs, awards for research and outreach, he was awarded numerous government policy-making bodies the 2012 Public Service Award from the National and agencies, foundations, and civil society Science Board for his contributions to the public organizations throughout the developing and understanding of science. Krauss is the only industrialized world. He served as a Coordinating physicist to have been awarded the three major Lead Author in the preparation of the Fifth awards from the American Physical Society, the Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental American Institute of Physics, and the American Panel on Climate Change, released in 2014, co- Association of Physics Teachers. leading the chapter on Equity and Sustainable Development. Herb Lin is Senior Research Scholar for Cyber Policy and Security at the Center for International Elizabeth Kolbert has been a staff writer atThe Security and Cooperation and Research Fellow New Yorker since 1999 and has written extensively at the Hoover Institution, both at Stanford on science and climate change to great acclaim. University. He is particularly interested in the use Her most recent book, The Sixth Extinction, won of offensive operations in cyberspace, especially as the 2015 Pulitzer Prize for general nonfiction. instruments of national policy. Kolbert is also known for her book Field Notes from a Catastrophe, based on her three-part series Suzet McKinney is the CEO/Executive Director on global warming, “The Climate of Man,” which of the Illinois Medical District Commission. She won the 2006 National Magazine Award for is the former Deputy Commissioner of the Bureau Public Interest and the AAAS Advancement of of Public Health Preparedness and Emergency Science Journalism Award. She is also a recipient Response at the Chicago Department of Public of a Heinz Award (for educating the public Health, where she oversaw the emergency about environmental issues) and a Guggenheim preparedness efforts for the department and Fellowship. coordinated those efforts within the larger spectrum of Chicago’s public safety activities. Lawrence Krauss (Chair—Board of Sponsors, A sought-after expert in her field, McKinney ex officio SASB) is the director of the Origins also provides support to the US Department of Project at Arizona State University and Foundation Defense, Defense Threat Reduction Agency, to Professor at ASU’s School of Earth and Space provide subject matter expertise in biological Exploration and Physics Department. Krauss is terrorism preparedness to international agencies. an internationally known theoretical physicist She is the author of the forthcoming text: Public with wide research interests, including the Health Emergency Preparedness: Practical Solutions interface between elementary particle physics for the Real World, published by Jones & Bartlett and cosmology, where his studies include the Publishers (2018). Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists § 10 Biographies (continued)

Steve Miller is the Director of the International (New Delhi). His research areas in pure physics Security Program at the Belfer Center for Science include nuclear theory, particle physics, quantum and International Affairs in Harvard University’s field theory, quantum Hall systems, anomalous Kennedy School of Government, and he is a gauge theories, and Soliton physics. He has also Fellow of the American Academy of Arts and worked on areas of public policy including higher Sciences, where he is chair of the Committee on education, nuclear energy and disarmament. The International Security Studies (CISS). Miller is latter body of work was recognized by the 2014 also Co-Chair of the US Pugwash Committee, Leo Szilard Lectureship Award by the American and is a member of the Council of International Physical Society. His work covers nuclear weapon Pugwash. Miller co-directs the Academy’s project accidents, civil defence, India’s nuclear doctrine, on the Global Nuclear Future Initiative with the minimal deterrence and anti-missile and early Bulletin’s Science and Security Board Chair, Robert warning systems. He has analyzed the Indo-US Rosner. nuclear agreement and its impact on both India’s civilian nuclear program and its nuclear arsenal. Raymond Pierrehumbert is Halley Professor He has written about fissile material production in of Physics at the University of Oxford. He was India and Pakistan and the radiological effects of a lead author on the IPCC Third Assessment nuclear weapon accidents. Report, and a co-author of the National Research Council report on abrupt climate change. Robert Rosner (Chair) is the chair of the He was awarded a John Simon Guggenheim Bulletin’s Science and Security Board and is Fellowship in 1996, which was used to launch the William E. Wrather Distinguished Service collaborative work on the climate of Early Mars Professor in the Departments of Astronomy with collaborators in Paris. He is a Fellow of the & Astrophysics and Physics, and the Harris American Geophysical Union (AGU), a Fellow School of Public Policy Studies at the University of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, of Chicago. Rosner served as Director of and has been named Chevalier de l’Ordre des Argonne National Laboratory, where he had also Palmes Académiques by the Republic of France. served as Chief Scientist. His current scientific Pierrehumbert’s central research interest is the use research is mostly in the areas of plasma of fundamental physical principles to elucidate the astrophysics and astrophysical fluid dynamics behavior of the present and past climates of Earth and magnetohydrodynamics; high energy density and other planets, including the growing catalog physics; boundary mixing instabilities; and of exoplanets. He leads the European Research computational physics. His policy-oriented work Council Advance Grant project EXOCONDENSE. has focused on the future of nuclear power and the back end of the nuclear fuel cycle, as well as Ramamurti Rajaraman is an emeritus professor various aspects of electrifying the transport sector. of physics at Jawaharlal Nehru University. He is a founding member and former co-chair of Jennifer Sims is currently a senior fellow at the International Panel on Fissile Materials. He the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and is is also currently a member of the Asia Pacific writing a book on intelligence in international Leadership Network, Council of the Pugwash politics. She is also a consultant on intelligence Conference on Science & World Affairs, the and homeland security for private corporations Permanent Monitoring Panel on Mitigation of and the US government. In 2008, the president Terrorist Acts, World Federation of Scientists of the United States appointed her to the Public (Erice, Italy), the Editorial Board of “Science and Interest Declassification Board, which advises Global Security,” and of the Board of Governors of the president on the declassification policies of the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies the US government. Sims received her MA and Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists § 11 Biographies (continued) her PhD from Johns Hopkins University’s School of Science, the American Geophysical Union, of Advanced International Studies. In 1998, Sims and the American Meteorological Society. He received the intelligence community’s highest has received both the Climate Communication civilian award, the National Distinguished Service Prize and the Ambassador Award of the American Medal. Geophysical Union, as well as awards from the American Meteorological Society for both his Susan Solomon is the Lee and Geraldine research and his popular book, The Forgiving Air: Martin Professor of Environmental Studies at the Understanding Environmental Change. Massachusetts Institute of Technology and was the Founding Director of the MIT Environmental Sharon Squassoni is Research Professor at the Solutions Initiative from 2014-2015. She is well Institute for International Science and Technology known for pioneering work that explained why Policy, Elliott School of International Affairs, at there is a hole in the Antarctic ozone layer and is the George Washington University. Previously, the author of several influential scientific papers she directed the Proliferation Prevention Program in climate science. Solomon received the 1999 US at the Center for Strategic and International National Medal of Science, the nation’s highest Studies and was a senior scholar at the Carnegie scientific award, in 1999. She has also received Endowment for International Peace, both in the Grande Medaille of the French Academy Washington, DC. She has specialized in nuclear of Sciences, the Blue Planet Prize in Japan, the nonproliferation, arms control and security policy BBVA Frontiers of Knowledge Award, and the for three decades, serving in the US government Volvo Environment Prize. She is a member at the Arms Control and Disarmament Agency, of the US National Academy of Sciences, the the State Department, and the Congressional French Academy of Sciences, and the Royal Research Service. She received a Bachelor of Arts Society in the UK. She served as co-chair for the degree from the State University of New York at Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Albany, a master’s in public management from the (IPCC) fourth climate science assessment report, University of Maryland, and a master’s in national released in 2007. Time magazine named Solomon security strategy from the National War College. as one of the 100 most influential people in the world in 2008. David Titley is a Professor of Practice in Meteorology and a Professor of International Richard Somerville is Distinguished Professor Affairs at the Pennsylvania State University, and Emeritus and Research Professor at Scripps the founding director of Penn State’s Center for Institution of Oceanography, University of Solutions to Weather and Climate Risk. He served California, San Diego. His research is focused on as a naval officer for 32 years and rose to the rank critical physical processes in the climate system, of rear admiral. Dr. Titley’s career included duties especially the role of clouds and the important as commander of the Naval Meteorology and feedbacks that can occur as clouds change with Oceanography Command; oceanographer and a changing climate. His broader interests include navigator of the Navy; and deputy assistant chief all aspects of climate, including climate science of naval operations for information dominance. outreach and the interface between science He also served as senior military assistant for and public policy. He was a Coordinating Lead the director, Office of Net Assessment in the Author of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Office of the Secretary of Defense. While serving Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in the Pentagon, Dr. Titley initiated and led (IPCC); the IPCC shared the 2007 Nobel Peace the US Navy’s Task Force on Climate Change. Prize equally with Al Gore. Somerville is a Fellow After retiring from the Navy, Dr. Titley served of the American Association for the Advancement as the deputy undersecretary of commerce for Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists § 12 Biographies (continued) operations, the chief operating officer position reports on the American West; the consulting at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric executive editor for the launch of Key West, a Administration. Dr. Titley serves on numerous regional magazine start-up directed by renowned advisory boards and National Academies of magazine guru Roger Black; and the top editor Science committees, including the CNA Military for award-winning newsweeklies in San Francisco Advisory Board and the Science and Security and Phoenix. In an earlier incarnation, he was Board of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. Dr. an investigative reporter at the Houston Post and Titley is a fellow of the American Meteorological covered the Persian Gulf War from Saudi Arabia Society and was awarded an honorary doctorate and Iraq. Writers working at his direction have from the University of Alaska, Fairbanks. won many major journalism contests, including the George Polk Award, the Investigative Reporters Jon Wolfsthal is Director of the Nuclear Crisis and Editors certificate, and the Sidney Hillman Group, an independent project of Global Zero. Award for reporting on social justice issues. Wolfsthal served previously as Special Assistant Mecklin holds a master in public administration to the President of the United States for National degree from Harvard’s Kennedy School of Security Affairs and senior director at the Government. National Security Council for arms control and nonproliferation. During his time in government he was involved in almost every aspect of US nuclear weapons, arms control, nonproliferation and security policy. Previously, Wolfsthal was the Deputy Director of the Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies, and served for three years as special advisor to Vice President Biden on issues of nuclear security and nonproliferation. He served in several capacities during the 1990s at the US Department of Energy, including an on-the-ground assignment in North Korea during 1995-96. With Joseph Cirincione, he is the author of Deadly Arsenals: Tracking Weapons of Mass Destruction. He is a non-resident fellow with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and with the Managing the Atom Project at Harvard University. Editor John Mecklin is the editor-in-chief of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. Previously, Mecklin was editor-in-chief of Miller-McCune (since renamed Pacific Standard), an award-winning national magazine that focused on research-based solutions to major policy problems. Over the preceding 15 years, he was also: the editor of High Country News, a nationally acclaimed magazine that

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists § 13 About the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists engages The Bulletin’s signature strength is its capacity science leaders, policy makers, and the to synthesize and inform by linking critical interested public on the topics of nuclear risk, issues, treaty negotiations, and scientific climate change, and disruptive technologies. assessments to threats represented by the iconic We do this through our award-winning journal, Doomsday Clock. The Clock attracts more iconic Doomsday Clock, public-access website, daily visitors to our site than any other feature, and regular set of convenings. With smart, and commands worldwide attention when the vigorous prose, multimedia presentations, and Bulletin issues periodic assessments of global information graphics, the Bulletin puts issues threats and solutions. and events into context and provides fact-based debates and assessments. For more than 70 In 2007 the Bulletin won the National Magazine years, the Bulletin has bridged the technology Award for General Excellence, the magazine divide between scientific research, foreign industry equivalent of an Oscar for Best policy, and public engagement. Picture. The Bulletin also was named one of four 2009 finalists for the Lumity Technology The Bulletin was founded in 1945 by Manhattan Leadership Award, presented by Accenture Project scientists who “could not remain to a nonprofit organization that is effectively aloof to the consequences of their work.” The applying innovative technologies. Today, the organization’s early years chronicled the dawn Bulletin supplements its cutting-edge journalism of the nuclear age and the birth of the scientists’ with interactive infographics and videos, and movement, as told by the men and women who amplifies its messages through social media built the atomic bomb and then lobbied with platforms. both technical and humanist arguments for its abolition. To advance the Bulletin as a thriving public forum over the next 70 years, we are opening Today, the Bulletin is an independent, nonprofit more channels between scientific and policy 501(c)(3) organization. With our international leaders as we increase our outreach to network of board members and experts, we supporters all over the world. Two partnerships assess scientific advancements that involve both are key to these efforts—one with the benefits and risks to humanity, with the goal of University of Chicago’s Harris School of Public influencing public policy to protect our planet Policy and the other with Routledge, publisher and all its inhabitants. of our digital journal since January 2016. The Bulletin’s website is a robust public and See more at: https://thebulletin.org research-oriented source of detailed reports and cogent analysis from the scientists and experts who are directly involved. It receives an average of more than 230,000 visits per month. The bimonthly magazine, which can be found in more than 15,000 leading universities and institutions worldwide, attracts a large number of influential readers. About half of the Bulletin’s website and journal readers reside outside the United States. Half of the visitors to its website are under the age of 35.

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists § 14 Timeline of Doomsday Clock changes

2017 IT IS TWO AND A HALF to modernize their nuclear triads—thereby MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT undermining existing nuclear weapons treaties. For the last two years, the minute hand “The clock ticks now at just three minutes to of the Doomsday Clock stayed set at three midnight because international leaders are minutes before the hour, the closest it had failing to perform their most important duty— been to midnight since the early 1980s. In its ensuring and preserving the health and vitality two most recent annual announcements on the of human civilization.” Clock, the Science and Security Board warned: “The probability of global catastrophe is very 2012 IT IS 5 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT high, and the actions needed to reduce the “The challenges to rid the world of risks of disaster must be taken very soon.” In nuclear weapons, harness nuclear 2017, we find the danger to be even greater, the power, and meet the nearly inexorable climate need for action more urgent. It is two and a half disruptions from global warming are complex minutes to midnight, the Clock is ticking, global and interconnected. In the face of such danger looms. Wise public officials should act complex problems, it is difficult to see where immediately, guiding humanity away from the the capacity lies to address these challenges.” brink. If they do not, wise citizens must step Political processes seem wholly inadequate; the forward and lead the way. potential for nuclear weapons use in regional conflicts in the Middle East, Northeast Asia, 2016 IT IS STILL 3 MINUTES TO and South Asia are alarming; safer nuclear MIDNIGHT reactor designs need to be developed and built, “Last year, the Science and Security and more stringent oversight, training, and Board moved the Doomsday Clock forward attention are needed to prevent future disasters; to three minutes to midnight, noting: ‘The the pace of technological solutions to address probability of global catastrophe is very high, climate change may not be adequate to meet and the actions needed to reduce the risks the hardships that large-scale disruption of the of disaster must be taken very soon.’ That climate portends. probability has not been reduced. The Clock ticks. Global danger looms. Wise leaders should 2010 IT IS 6 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT act—immediately.” International cooperation rules the day. Talks between Washington and Moscow 2015 IT IS 3 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT for a follow-on agreement to the Strategic “Unchecked climate change, global Arms Reduction Treaty are nearly complete, nuclear weapons modernizations, and more negotiations for further reductions and outsized nuclear weapons arsenals pose in the U.S. and Russian nuclear arsenal are extraordinary and undeniable threats to the already planned. Additionally, Barack Obama continued existence of humanity, and world becomes the first U.S. president to publicly call leaders have failed to act with the speed or for a nuclear-weapon-free world. The dangers on the scale required to protect citizens from posed by climate change are still great, but potential catastrophe. These failures of political there are pockets of progress. Most notably: At leadership endanger every person on Earth.” Copenhagen, the developing and industrialized Despite some modestly positive developments countries agree to take responsibility for carbon in the climate change arena, current efforts are emissions and to limit global temperature rise entirely insufficient to prevent a catastrophic to 2 degrees Celsius. warming of Earth. Meanwhile, the United States and Russia have embarked on massive programs Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists § 15 Timeline of Doomsday Clock changes (cont.)

2007 IT IS 5 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT resurgent Russia could provide as much of a The world stands at the brink of a threat as the Soviet Union. Such talk slows the second nuclear age. The United States rollback in global nuclear forces; more than and Russia remain ready to stage a nuclear 40,000 nuclear weapons remain worldwide. attack within minutes, North Korea conducts There is also concern that terrorists could a nuclear test, and many in the international exploit poorly secured nuclear facilities in the community worry that Iran plans to acquire former Soviet Union. the Bomb. Climate change also presents a dire challenge to humanity. Damage to ecosystems 1991 IT IS 17 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT is already taking place; flooding, destructive With the Cold War officially over, storms, increased drought, and polar ice melt the United States and Russia begin are causing loss of life and property. making deep cuts to their nuclear arsenals. The Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty greatly 2002 IT IS 7 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT reduces the number of strategic nuclear Concerns regarding a nuclear terrorist weapons deployed by the two former attack underscore the enormous amount adversaries. Better still, a series of unilateral of unsecured—and sometimes unaccounted initiatives remove most of the intercontinental for—weapon-grade nuclear materials located ballistic missiles and bombers in both countries throughout the world. Meanwhile, the United from hair-trigger alert. “The illusion that tens of States expresses a desire to design new nuclear thousands of nuclear weapons are a guarantor weapons, with an emphasis on those able to of national security has been stripped away,” the destroy hardened and deeply buried targets. Bulletin declares. It also rejects a series of arms control treaties and announces it will withdraw from the Anti- 1990 IT IS 10 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT Ballistic Missile Treaty. As one Eastern European country after another (Poland, Czechoslovakia, 1998 IT IS 9 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT Hungary, Romania) frees itself from Soviet India and Pakistan stage nuclear control, Soviet General Secretary Mikhail weapons tests only three weeks apart. Gorbachev refuses to intervene, halting the “The tests are a symptom of the failure of the ideological battle for Europe and significantly international community to fully commit itself diminishing the risk of all-out nuclear war. In to control the spread of nuclear weapons— late 1989, the Berlin Wall falls, symbolically and to work toward substantial reductions in ending the Cold War. “Forty-four years after the numbers of these weapons,” a dismayed Winston Churchill’s ‘Iron Curtain’ speech, Bulletin reports. Russia and the United States the myth of monolithic communism has been continue to serve as poor examples to the rest shattered for all to see,” the Bulletin proclaims. of the world. Together, they still maintain 7,000 warheads ready to fire at each other within 15 1988 IT IS 6 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT minutes. The United States and Soviet Union sign the historic Intermediate-Range Nuclear 1995 IT IS 14 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT Forces Treaty, the first agreement to actually Hopes for a large post-Cold War peace ban a whole category of nuclear weapons. The dividend and a renouncing of nuclear leadership shown by President Ronald Reagan weapons fade. Particularly in the United and Soviet Premier Mikhail Gorbachev makes States, hard-liners seem reluctant to soften the treaty a reality, but public opposition to U.S. their rhetoric or actions, as they claim that a nuclear weapons in Western Europe inspires it.

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists § 16 Timeline of Doomsday Clock changes (cont.)

For years, such intermediate-range missiles had 1974 IT IS 9 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT kept Western Europe in the crosshairs of the South Asia gets the Bomb, as India tests two superpowers. its first nuclear device. And any gains in previous arms control agreements seem like 1984 IT IS 3 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT a mirage. The United States and Soviet Union U.S.-Soviet relations reach their iciest appear to be modernizing their nuclear forces, point in decades. Dialogue between not reducing them. Thanks to the deployment the two superpowers virtually stops. “Every of multiple independently targetable reentry channel of communications has been vehicles (MIRV), both countries can now load constricted or shut down; every form of contact their intercontinental ballistic missiles with has been attenuated or cut off. And arms control more nuclear warheads than before. negotiations have been reduced to a species of propaganda,” a concerned Bulletin informs 1972 IT IS 12 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT readers. The United States seems to flout The United States and Soviet Union the few arms control agreements in place by attempt to curb the race for nuclear seeking an expansive, space-based anti-ballistic superiority by signing the Strategic Arms missile capability, raising worries that a new Limitation Treaty (SALT) and the Anti-Ballistic arms race will begin. Missile (ABM) Treaty. The two treaties force a nuclear parity of sorts. SALT limits the number 1981 IT IS 4 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT of ballistic missile launchers either country can The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan possess, and the ABM Treaty stops an arms race hardens the U.S. nuclear posture. Before in defensive weaponry from developing. he leaves office, President Jimmy Carter pulls the United States from the Olympic Games 1969 IT IS 10 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT in Moscow and considers ways in which the Nearly all of the world’s nations come United States could win a nuclear war. The together to sign the Nuclear Non- rhetoric only intensifies with the election of Proliferation Treaty. The deal is simple—the Ronald Reagan as president. Reagan scraps any nuclear weapon states vow to help the treaty’s talk of arms control and proposes that the best non-nuclear weapon signatories develop way to end the Cold War is for the United States nuclear power if they promise to forego to win it. producing nuclear weapons. The nuclear weapon states also pledge to abolish their own 1980 IT IS 7 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT arsenals when political conditions allow for Thirty-five years after the start of the it. Although Israel, India, and Pakistan refuse nuclear age and after some promising to sign the treaty, the Bulletin is cautiously disarmament gains, the United States and the optimistic: “The great powers have made the Soviet Union still view nuclear weapons as an first step. They must proceed without delay to integral component of their national security. the next one—the dismantling, gradually, of This stalled progress discourages the Bulletin: their own oversized military establishments.” “[The Soviet Union and United States have] been behaving like what may best be described 1968 IT IS 7 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT as ‘nucleoholics’—drunks who continue to insist Regional wars rage. U.S. involvement in that the drink being consumed is positively ‘the Vietnam intensifies, India and Pakistan last one,’ but who can always find a good excuse battle in 1965, and Israel and its Arab neighbors for ‘just one more round.’” renew hostilities in 1967. Worse yet, France and China develop nuclear weapons to assert

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists § 17 Timeline of Doomsday Clock changes (cont.) themselves as global players. “There is little Moscow to Chicago, atomic explosions will reason to feel sanguine about the future of our strike midnight for Western civilization.” society on the world scale,” the Bulletin laments. “There is a mass revulsion against war, yes; but 1949 IT IS 3 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT no sign of conscious intellectual leadership The Soviet Union denies it, but in the in a rebellion against the deadly heritage of fall, President Harry Truman tells the international anarchy.” American public that the Soviets tested their first nuclear device, officially starting the 1963 IT IS 12 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT arms race. “We do not advise Americans that After a decade of almost non-stop doomsday is near and that they can expect nuclear tests, the United States and atomic bombs to start falling on their heads a Soviet Union sign the Partial Test Ban Treaty, month or year from now,” the Bulletin explains. which ends all atmospheric nuclear testing. “But we think they have reason to be deeply While it does not outlaw underground testing, alarmed and to be prepared for grave decisions.” the treaty represents progress in at least slowing the arms race. It also signals awareness 1947 IT IS 7 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT among the Soviets and United States that As the Bulletin evolves from a newsletter they need to work together to prevent nuclear into a magazine, the Clock appears annihilation. on the cover for the first time. It symbolizes the urgency of the nuclear dangers that the 1960 IT IS 7 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT magazine’s founders—and the broader scientific Political actions belie the tough talk of community—are trying to convey to the public “massive retaliation.” For the first time, and political leaders around the world. the United States and Soviet Union appear eager to avoid direct confrontation in regional conflicts such as the 1956 Egyptian-Israeli dispute. Joint projects that build trust and constructive dialogue between third parties also quell diplomatic hostilities. Scientists initiate many of these measures, helping establish the International Geophysical Year, a series of coordinated, worldwide scientific observations, and the Pugwash Conferences, which allow Soviet and American scientists to interact. 1953 IT IS 2 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT After much debate, the United States decides to pursue the hydrogen bomb, a weapon far more powerful than any atomic bomb. In October 1952, the United States tests its first thermonuclear device, obliterating a Pacific Ocean islet in the process; nine months later, the Soviets test an H-bomb of their own. “The hands of the Clock of Doom have moved again,” the Bulletin announces. “Only a few more swings of the pendulum, and, from

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists § 18