REFLECTIONS ON THE TREATY ON THE NON-PROLIFERATION OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS Review conferences and the future of the NPT edited by jayantha dhanapala and tariq rauf REFLECTIONS ON THE TREATY ON THE NON-PROLIFERATION OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS Review conferences and the future of the NPT EDITED BY JAYANTHA DHANAPALA AND TARIQ RAUF STOCKHOLM INTERNATIONAL PEACE RESEARCH INSTITUTE SIPRI is an independent international institute dedicated to research into conflict, armaments, arms control and disarmament. Established in 1966, SIPRI provides data, analysis and recommendations, based on open sources, to policymakers, researchers, media and the interested public. The Governing Board is not responsible for the views expressed in the publications of the Institute. GOVERNING BOARD Sven-Olof Petersson, Chairman (Sweden) Dr Dewi Fortuna Anwar (Indonesia) Dr Vladimir Baranovsky (Russia) Ambassador Lakhdar Brahimi (Algeria) Ambassador Wolfgang Ischinger (Germany) Professor Mary Kaldor (United Kingdom) Dr Radha Kumar (India) The Director DIRECTOR Dan Smith (United Kingdom) Signalistgatan 9 SE-169 72 Solna, Sweden Telephone: +46 8 655 97 00 Email: [email protected] Internet: www.sipri.org Contents Acknowledgements v About the authors vi Introduction 1 JAYANTHA DHANAPALA AND TARIQ RAUF Part 1 Multilateral diplomacy and the NPT: An insider’s account 5 JAYANTHA DHANAPALA WITH RANDY RYDELL Part 2 Planning for the 2010 NPT Review Conference: 133 A practitioner’s overview JAYANTHA DHANAPALA Part 3 Evaluating the 2010 NPT Review Conference 181 JAYANTHA DHANAPALA Part 4 Assessing the 2015 NPT Review Conference 199 TARIQ RAUF Part 5 The 2020 NPT Review Conference: A guide to procedural matters 211 TARIQ RAUF Conclusions: The Future of the NPT 235 TARIQ RAUF AND JAYANTHA DHANAPALA Annexes Annex A. Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons 241 Annex B. ‘The Package’—Key Documents of the 1995 NPTREC 246 Annex C. 2000 Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the 253 Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons Final Document: Improving the effectiveness of the strengthened review process for the Treaty Acknowledgements We are grateful to the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research, the United States Institute of Peace, and the Council of the Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs for the kind permission to reprint, respectively: Multilateral Diplomacy and the NPT: An Insider’s Account* (United Nations, 2005); Planning for the 2010 NPT Review Conference: A Practitioner’s Overview (Issue Brief, Vol.6, No.1. March 2010), and Evaluating the 2010 NPT Review Conference (Special Report 258: October 2010)—all written by Jayantha Dhanapala; *with Randy Rydell. Jayantha Dhanapala and Tariq Rauf, September 2016 About the authors Ambassador Jayantha Dhanapala was the President of the 1995 Review and Extension Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. Currently, he is the President of the 1995 Nobel Peace Laureate Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs, and Distinguished Associate Fellow with the Disarmament, Arms Control and Non-Proliferation Programme at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) and was the Vice Chair of the Governing Board of SIPRI. He was the UN Under-Secretary-General for Disarmament Affairs (1998–2003), Ambassador for Sri Lanka to the USA (1995–1997) and to the UN Office in Geneva (1984–87). He was the Director of the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Affairs (1987–92); member of the Canberra Commission on Nuclear Disarmament 1995–96; the International Weapons of Mass Destruction Commission, the International Advisory Group of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), the United Nations University Council (Chairman for the year 2007–2008), the Geneva Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces, the Advisory Council of the Stanford Institute for International Studies, the International Board of the Bonn International Center for Conversion, the International Advisory Board of the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Monterey Institute of International Studies, and Honorary President of the International Peace Bureau (2003–2007). Tariq Rauf is the Director of the Disarmament, Arms Control and Non-Proliferation Programme at SIPRI. He was Senior Advisor to the Chair of Main Committee I (nuclear disarmament) at the 2015 NPT Review Conference and also to the Chair of the 2014 NPT Preparatory Committee. From 2002–11, he was Head of Verification and Security Policy Coordination, Office reporting to the Director General, at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), in which capacity he was the Alternate Head of the IAEA Delegation to NPT Conferences and PrepComs from 2003–10; IAEA Liaison and Point-of-Contact (PoC) for multilateral control regimes such as the Nuclear Suppliers Group, the Zangger Committee, Committee UNSCR 1540, and the (UN) Counter-Terrorism Implementation Task Force (CTITF); from 2003–12, Coordinator of IAEA Multilateral Approaches to the Nuclear Fuel Cycle, PoC for the Trilateral Initiative and the Plutonium Management and Disposition Agreement negotiations; responsible for the IAEA Forum on Experience of Nuclear- Weapon-Free Zones Relevant for the Middle East from 2002–10. From 1987– 2000, he was Non-Proliferation Expert/Advisor with Canada’s delegations to NPT Conferences. Introduction TARIQ RAUF AND JAYANTHA DHANAPALA The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), consisting of a brief eleven articles covering five pages, is the world’s pre-eminent multilaterally negotiated nuclear arms control treaty.1 Except for the United Nations Charter, the NPT has the largest number of states parties—India, Israel and Pakistan continue to defy the international nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament norms established through consensus by refusing to accede to the Treaty, and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) is the sole instance of a state party withdrawing from the NPT (in January 2003). The NPT forever closed the door on states acquiring the status of ‘nuclear- weapon states’ (NWS) and remains the only global, legally binding, instrument committing the NWS to nuclear disarmament and for all states parties to pursue a treaty on general and complete disarmament. The NPT always was and continues to remain a three-part bargain: nuclear non-proliferation; international cooperation in promoting the peaceful uses of nuclear energy across the entire nuclear fuel cycle under safeguards in conformity with the Treaty; and nuclear disarmament leading to the elimination of all nuclear weapons. The Treaty does not refer to any pre- conditions for nuclear non-proliferation or for nuclear disarmament. Each of the three objectives of the Treaty can be pursued either separately or in tandem with each other. The spirit of the NPT was succinctly captured by the-then Canadian Foreign Minister Lloyd Axworthy when he stated: ‘The nuclear non-proliferation regime is based on, and anchored in, international law and norms, as well as incorporated into international mechanisms. The NPT is fundamental, but the broader regime is a complex system of multilateral and bilateral agreements, arrangements, and mechanisms intended to promote and achieve a world without nuclear weapons, sooner rather than later. This was valid during the Cold War and remains valid today. At the same time, the regime is intended to provide a framework to enable the world to make effective use of nuclear capability for peaceful purposes’.2 This description of the purposes of the Treaty is as valid today and for the future as when it was first made. The NPT established a precedent in requiring periodic reviews of its implementation by states parties. Accordingly, nine quinquennial review conferences have been convened since the Treaty entered into force in 1970. These were held respectively in 1975, 1980, 1985, 1990, 1995, 2000, 2010 1 Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, IAEA Information Circular INFCIRC/140, 22 April 1970. 2 Notes for a Statement by the Honourable Lloyd Axworthy, Minister of Foreign Affairs to the Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs and International Trade, Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade (Ottawa, Canada: 26 May 1998), cited in Rauf. T., ‘The 2000 NPT Review Conference’, The Nonproliferation Review/Spring 2000, p. 147. 2 REFLECTIONS ON THE NUCLEAR NON-PROLIFERATION TREATY and 2015. The next review conference will be convened in the year 2020, which will mark the fiftieth anniversary of the entry-into-force of the NPT. The Treaty also provided for states parties to decide on its future continuation twenty-five years after entry-into-force and also stipulated the options available: to continue in force indefinitely, or for an additional fixed period or periods, and that this decision shall be taken by a majority of the parties to the Treaty. The all-important review and extension conference was held at United Nations headquarters in 1995 and its presidency was entrusted to Ambassador Jayantha Dhanapala of Sri Lanka. The-then 179 states parties decided without a vote to extend the treaty indefinitely through an interlinked, inseparable and irrevocable, package of three decisions and a resolution. The decision on indefinite extension was based on the foundation provided by the decision of a strengthened review process for the Treaty, the decision on principles and objectives for nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament, and a resolution on the establishment of a zone free of nuclear