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Global Counterspace Capabilities: an Open Source Assessment 2020 Global Counterspace Capabilities: Global Counterspace Global Counterspace Capabilities: An Open Source Assessment An Open An Open Source Assessment 2020 April 2020 Secure World Foundation Editors Brian Weeden Director of Program Planning Victoria Samson Washington Office Director Global Counterspace Capabilities Global Counterspace Capabilities: An Open Source Assessment April 2020 Editors Brian Weeden Director of Program Planning Victoria Samson Washington Office Director Global Counterspace Capabilities i Secure World Foundation (SWF) is a private operating foundation dedicated About to the secure and sustainable use of space for the benefit of Earth and all its peoples. SWF engages with academics, policy makers, scientists, and advocates in the space and international affairs communities to support steps Secure that strengthen global space sustainability. It promotes the development of cooperative and effective use of space for the protection of Earth’s World environment and human security. Foundation A growing number of countries and commercial actors are getting involved in space, resulting in more innovation and benefits on Earth, but also more congestion and competition in space. ii Dr. Brian Weeden is the Director of Program Planning for Secure World Foundation and About has more than two decades of professional experience in space operations and policy. the Dr. Weeden directs strategic planning for future-year projects to meet the Foundation’s goals and objectives, and conducts research on space debris, global space situational Editors awareness, space traffic management, protection of space assets, and space governance. Dr. Weeden also organizes national and international workshops to increase awareness of and facilitate dialogue on space security, stability, and sustainability topics. He is a member and former Chair of the World Economic Forum’s Global Future Council on Space Technologies, a member of the Advisory Committee on Commercial Remote Sensing (ACCRES) to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the Executive Director of the Consortium for Execution of Rendezvous and Servicing Operations (CONFERS). Dr. Brian Weeden Prior to joining SWF, Dr. Weeden served nine years on active duty as an officer in the United States Air Force working in space and intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) operations. As part of U.S. Strategic Command’s Joint Space Operations Center (JSpOC), Dr. Weeden directed the orbital analyst training program and developed tactics, techniques and procedures for improving space situational awareness. Respected and recognized as an international expert, Dr. Weeden’s research and analysis have been featured in The New York Times, The Washington Post, National Public Radio, USA Today, The BBC, Fox News, China Radio International, The Economist, The World Economic Forum’s Annual Meeting in Davos, academic journals, presentations to the United Nations, and testimony before the U.S. Congress. Ms. Victoria Samson is the Washington Office Director for Secure World Foundation and has more than twenty years of experience in military space and security issues. Before joining SWF, Ms. Samson served as a Senior Analyst for the Center for Defense Information (CDI), where she leveraged her expertise in missile defense, nuclear reductions, and space security issues to conduct in-depth analysis and media commentary. Prior to her time at CDI, Ms. Samson was the Senior Policy Associate at Ms. Victoria Samson the Coalition to Reduce Nuclear Dangers, a consortium of arms control groups in the Washington, D.C. area, where she worked with Congressional staffers, members of the media, embassy officials, citizens, and think-tanks on issues surrounding dealing with national missile defense and nuclear weapons reductions. Before that, she was a researcher at Riverside Research Institute, where she worked on war-gaming scenarios for the Missile Defense Agency’s Directorate of Intelligence. Known throughout the space and security arena as a thought leader on policy and budgetary issues, Ms. Samson is often interviewed by multinational media outlets, including the New York Times, Space News, and NPR. She is also a prolific author of numerous op-eds, analytical pieces, journal articles, and updates on missile defense and space security matters. iii Global Counterspace Capabilities iii TABLE OF CONTENTS ABOUT SECURE WORLD FOUNDATION i ABOUT THE EDITORS ii LIST OF FIGURES iv LIST OF ACRONYMS v EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ix ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS xv FOREWORD xvi INTRODUCTION xvii 1 – CHINA 1-1 1.1 – CHINESE CO-ORBITAL ASAT 1-2 1.2 – CHINESE DIRECT-ASCENT ASAT 1-9 1.3 – CHINESE ELECTRONIC WARFARE 1-15 1.4 – CHINESE DIRECTED ENERGY WEAPONS 1-17 1.5 – CHINESE SPACE SITUATIONAL AWARENESS CAPABILITIES 1-20 1.6 – CHINESE COUNTERSPACE POLICY, DOCTRINE, AND ORGANIZATION 1-22 2 – RUSSIA 2-1 2.1 – RUSSIAN CO-ORBITAL ASAT 2-2 2.2 – RUSSIAN DIRECT-ASCENT ASAT 2-11 2.3 – RUSSIAN ELECTRONIC WARFARE 2-17 2.4 – RUSSIAN DIRECTED ENERGY WEAPONS 2-23 2.5 – RUSSIAN SPACE SITUATIONAL AWARENESS CAPABILITIES 2-25 2.6 – RUSSIAN COUNTERSPACE POLICY, DOCTRINE, AND ORGANIZATION 2-27 3 – THE UNITED STATES 3-1 3.1 – U.S. CO-ORBITAL ASAT 3-2 3.2 – U.S. DIRECT-ASCENT ASAT 3-8 3.3 – U.S. ELECTRONIC WARFARE 3-11 3.4 – U.S. DIRECTED ENERGY WEAPONS 3-14 3.5 – U.S. SPACE SITUATIONAL AWARENESS CAPABILITIES 3-17 3.6 – U.S. COUNTERSPACE POLICY, DOCTRINE, AND ORGANIZATION 3-19 4 – FRANCE 4-1 5 – INDIA 5-1 6 – IRAN 6-1 7 – JAPAN 7-1 8 – NORTH KOREA 8-1 9 – CYBER COUNTERSPACE CAPABILITIES 9-1 10 – APPENDIX: IMAGERY OF MAJOR TEST SITES AND FACILITIES 10-1 iv LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1 - Co-Orbital SY-7...........................................................................................................................................1-3 Figure 2 - Orbital trajectory of the YZ-2.....................................................................................................................1-5 Figure 3 - Longitudinal history of the SJ-17................................................................................................................1-6 Figure 4 - DF-21 MRBM............................................................................................................................................1-11 Figure 5 - Xichang from April 3, 2013.....................................................................................................................1-12 Figure 6 - Uplink vs downlink jamming.....................................................................................................................1-15 Figure 7 - Luch Orbital History.....................................................................................................................................2-9 Figure 8 - TEL-mounted Nudol..................................................................................................................................2-13 Figure 9 - R-330ZH and Borisoglebsk-2....................................................................................................................2-18 Figure 10 - Krasukha-4................................................................................................................................................2-21 Figure 11 - Russian Missile Warning and SSA Radars..................................................................................................2-25 Figure 12 - Minotaur upper stage..............................................................................................................................3-3 Figure 13 - Orbital Express mission plan....................................................................................................................3-3 Figure 14 - GSSAP satellites........................................................................................................................................3-5 Figure 15 - Iranian Ballistic Missiles...........................................................................................................................6-3 Figure 16 - Kwangmyongsong-4.................................................................................................................................8-4 Figure 17 - Jiuquan...................................................................................................................................................10-1 Figure 18 - Korla 1....................................................................................................................................................10-2 Figure 19 - Korla 2....................................................................................................................................................10-2 Figure 20 - Korla 3....................................................................................................................................................10-3 Figure 21 - Taiyuan...................................................................................................................................................10-4 Figure 22 - Xichang...................................................................................................................................................10-5 Figure 23 - Kapustin Yar............................................................................................................................................10-6 Figure 24 - Plesetsk..................................................................................................................................................10-7
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