Coupling of Sea Level and Tidal Range Changes, with Implications for Future Water Levels

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Portland State University PDXScholar Civil and Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications and Presentations Civil and Environmental Engineering 2017 Coupling of Sea Level and Tidal Range Changes, with Implications for Future Water levels Adam T. Devlin Portland State University David A. Jay Portland State University Stefan Talke Portland State University, [email protected] Edward D. Zaron Portland State University, [email protected] Jiayi Pan The Chinese University of Hong Kong See next page for additional authors Follow this and additional works at: https://pdxscholar.library.pdx.edu/cengin_fac Part of the Environmental Engineering Commons Let us know how access to this document benefits ou.y Citation Details Devlin, Adam T.; Jay, David A.; Talke, Stefan; Zaron, Edward D.; Pan, Jiayi; and Lin, Hui, "Coupling of Sea Level and Tidal Range Changes, with Implications for Future Water levels" (2017). Civil and Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications and Presentations. 429. https://pdxscholar.library.pdx.edu/cengin_fac/429 This Article is brought to you for free and open access. It has been accepted for inclusion in Civil and Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications and Presentations by an authorized administrator of PDXScholar. Please contact us if we can make this document more accessible: [email protected]. Authors Adam T. Devlin, David A. Jay, Stefan Talke, Edward D. Zaron, Jiayi Pan, and Hui Lin This article is available at PDXScholar: https://pdxscholar.library.pdx.edu/cengin_fac/429 www.nature.com/scientificreports OPEN Coupling of sea level and tidal range changes, with implications for future water levels Received: 9 June 2017 Adam T. Devlin1,2, David A. Jay2, Stefan A. Talke2, Edward D. Zaron2, Jiayi Pan1,3,4 & Hui Lin1 Accepted: 10 November 2017 Are perturbations to ocean tides correlated with changing sea-level and climate, and how will this Published: xx xx xxxx afect high water levels? Here, we survey 152 tide gauges in the Pacifc Ocean and South China Sea and statistically evaluate how the sum of the four largest tidal constituents, a proxy for the highest astronomical tide (HAT), changes over seasonal and interannual time scales. We fnd that the variability in HAT is signifcantly correlated with sea-level variability; approximately 35% of stations exhibit a greater than ±50 mm tidal change per meter sea-level fuctuation. Focusing on a subset of three stations with long records, probability density function (PDF) analyses of the 95% percentile exceedance of total sea level (TSL) show long-term changes of this high-water metric. At Hong Kong, the increase in tides signifcantly amplifes the risk caused by sea-level rise. Regions of tidal decrease and/or amplifcation highlight the non-linear response to sea-level variations, with the potential to amplify or mitigate against the increased food risk caused by sea-level rise. Overall, our analysis suggests that in many regions, local food level determinations should consider the joint efects of non- stationary tides and mean sea level (MSL) at multiple time scales. Worldwide, ocean tides have exhibited trends over the past century that cannot be explained by the orbital mechanics underlying predictable tidal variability1,2. Regional studies have shown changes in major diurnal and semidiurnal tides in the Eastern Pacifc3, in the Gulf of Maine4, in the North Atlantic5,6, in China7,8, in Japan9, and at islands throughout the Pacifc10. Alongside these changes, mean sea level (MSL) has been increasing at a global rate of +1.7 ± 0.2 mm yr−1 as estimated from coastal and island tide gauge measurements from 1900–2009, and +3.4 ± 0.4 mm yr−1 for 1993–2016 as estimated from satellite altimetry11,12. A recent calculation shows the satel- lite era rate to be closer to +3.0 mmyr−1, though the last decade showed a faster rise, presumably from increased ice melt in Greenland13. However, this increase is not spatially uniform; Western Pacifc MSL rise rates exceed +10 mmyr−1 in some locations, whereas Eastern Pacifc rates are ofen zero or negative14,15. Climate models pre- dict that MSL rates will accelerate in upcoming decades through global climate change mechanisms16 such as ice sheet melt and thermosteric MSL rise due to upper-ocean warming17–24. Both MSL and tides exhibit short-term (seasonal to decadal) variability, in addition to long-term trends25. Tide properties can be altered by depth changes26 including those caused by MSL rise27, or by mechanisms driving MSL rise, such as increased surface water temperatures28. In either case, societal consequences are ofen due to total sea level, which is the sum of MSL and the time-variable water level (including tides). Terefore, both tides and MSL should be considered together in assessing the signifcance of future sea-level changes29. Figure 1 shows a simple cartoon of the various mechanisms that can afect MSL and tides. Changes in water depth (ΔH) can be due to changes in density (Δρ), which is a function of water temperature (Tw). An increase in 17 Tw will decrease the density of the upper layer (ρu), increasing ΔH . Altered frictional efects (Δr) can manifest from changes in ΔH27. Te “coupled oscillator” efect between the shelf regions and the open ocean can lead to modifcations of tidal amplitudes via changing Δr and frequency-dependent tidal responses to astronomical 29 forcing (ΔΨω) for multiple tides . Internal tides can change via modulations of ΔH and Δρ, which can change the wave phase relative to the barotropic tide, which can modulate the surface expression of the tidal amplitude30. Resonance is a function of ΔH and ΔΨω; small changes in ΔH may change the resonance of enclosed bays 1The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, New Territories, Hong Kong, SAR, China. 2Portland State University, Portland, OR, United States of America. 3College of Marine Science, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China. 4Shenzhen Research Institute, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, Guangdong, 518057, China. Correspondence and requests for materials should be addressed to A.T.D. (email: [email protected]) SCIENTIFIC REPORTS | 7: 17021 | DOI:10.1038/s41598-017-17056-z 1 www.nature.com/scientificreports/ Figure 1. Schematic cartoon showing some of the mechanisms that can afect MSL and tides. See text above for details. Relevant reference citation numbers are indicated in fgure by superscript. 31 and harbors through modifcation of ΔΨω that may either increase or decrease tidal amplitudes . Water depth changes are also dependent on ΔQr in estuarine locations. An increase in ΔQr will certainly increase MSL locally, but the increased friction of the incoming tide interacting with the outgoing river discharge will change Δr, decreasing tidal amplitude32. Finally, on a larger scale, changes in ΔH can also afect the structure of basin-wide amphidromic systems via movement of the co-tidal lines33. Another mechanism not shown on this fgure is that of resonant triad interactions, such as between the M2, K1, and O1 tides, which can be amplifed through changes in ΔH and Δρ that change local geometry and modulate all three tidal amplitudes in the relationship25. Te correlations of multiple forcing mechanisms make it challenging to determine the causes behind the linked variability of MSL and tides that is observed at many locations34,35. However, the presence of correlations between sea-level and tides indicates that one or more of these processes is at work. In summary, previous studies suggest that changes in the amplitude and phase of a tidal constituent may be a function of multiple variables: Δ=ΔΔ ΔΔρ ΔΔΨ ... Amp(tidal fH,,Qmrx,,r,,ω ) (1) where H is the water depth, ρ is water density, r is friction, mx is mixing, Qr is river discharge, and Ψω represents frequency-dependent tidal response to astronomical tidal forcing. Te “…” indicates other variables not listed here, such as wind. Since many of the variables which afect sea-level (river fow, density, wind) can also afect tidal amplitudes, a correlated response is frequently observed. Identifying connections and correlations between tidal range and MSL is critical for making reliable predic- tions of coastal water levels and inundation risk. When combined with storm surge, larger tides and higher MSL may amplify food risk, coastal inundation, damage to infrastructure, and population displacement. Even with- out the consideration of storm surge, changes in tides and sea-levels may lead to more occurrences of nuisance fooding, also known as “sunny day fooding”, which now occurs at high tide many locations, particularly along the US East and Gulf coasts36–38. Numerous factors contribute to nuisance fooding, including ocean swell and wave setup, local wind forcing, river fow, and the degradation of natural and man-made barriers. Hence, the joint efects of changes in tidal range and MSL are signifcant and of widespread relevance. Figure 2 shows four conceptually possible relationships of MSL rise and tidal change. Coupled changes of tides and MSL Tidal range changes are quantifed using tidal anomaly correlations (TACs), the ratio of short-term variability of tidal admittances to short-term MSL variability afer removing long-term trends25,34,35. Tis method deter- mines the sensitivity of tidal constituents to sea-level perturbations. Determinations of MSL and tidal variability are computed from harmonic analyses of hourly water level at 152 Pacifc Ocean tide gauge stations, using the absolute value of the complex amplitude sum of the four largest tidal components (the two largest semidiurnal constituents, M2 and S2, the two largest diurnal components, K1 and O1), and yearly MSL. Te M2, S2, K1, and O1 variabilities are summed (as complex amplitudes) to produce a combined tidal variability that is compared to MSL, and is used here as an approximation for the change in the highest astronomical tide per unit sea-level rise (δ-HAT).
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