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Home , Lituya Bay, Rogue wave, Tidal bore, Tidal range, Tsunami, Whirlpool

The Power of the

Tsunamis, surges, rogue , and our quest to predict

Bruce Parker

former Chief Scientist, National Service, NOAA and presently, Visiting Professor Center for Maritime Systems/Davidson Lab Stevens Institute of Technology the power published by Palgrave Macmillan of the

The History and Importance of Marine Prediction

BUT written for a general audience, with stories of unpredicted natural disasters interwoven with stories of scientific discoveries. When the sea turns its enormous power against us, our best defense is to get out of its way.

But to do that we must first be able to PREDICT when and where the sea will strike.

A history of marine prediction the power from ancient mankind’s strange ideas about the sea of the to our latest technological advances in predicting the sea's moments of destruction.

But in an accessible way for general audiences.

It interweaves stories of unpredicted natural disasters with stories of scientific discoveries. [Raise public awareness]

Predicting

Tides Storm Surges Waves El Niño Climate Change earliest ; 20th Century World War II; only once the ~6- ~global averages, crudely in now accurate good global models, ahead, but but “uncertainty” ancient times (was deadliest) but not rogue waves has occurred still problems about regional predictions Tidal bores 15431543 TidalTidal AtlasAtlas TidalTidal whirlpoolswhirlpools

Tide predictions for D-Day Napoleon’sNapoleon’s escapeescape Predictions fromfrom thethe RedRed SeaSea tidestides

The earliest predictions for the Sea

TheThe “parting”“parting” ofof thethe RedRed SeaSea Miles of mudflats revealed at Low Tide. 40 feet Near Bristol, UK, at Low (40 ft ) Mont-Saint-Michel

in the Gulf of St. Malo,

45-foot tidal range Napoleon In Egypt

Gulf of Suez

“Red Sea” Napoleon’s escape from the Red Sea on December 28, 1798

(1852 etching) DidDid thethe ExodusExodus acrossacross thethe RedRed SeaSea dependdepend onon aa tidetide predictionprediction byby MosesMoses ??

(Etching by Gustave Doré, 1866) Alexander the Great and the in the (325 AD) Oldest Tide Table Tidal bore is for the tidal bore on in the the Qiantang River at Yanguan, in 1056. Qiantang River, China.

Wu Tzu-Hsu

(1900(1900 etching)etching)

Narrowing width and large tide range at entrance TidalTidal BoreBore onon thethe QiantangQiantang RiverRiver inin ChinaChina

(( breakingbreaking wavewave crestcrest coveringcovering thethe entireentire widthwidth ofof thethe riverriver )) (( cancan bebe 1515--2525 feetfeet highhigh andand gogo upup thethe riverriver atat 1515 knotsknots )) Tidal

Malström between southern Loften Islands,

Tidal in of Scylla and Charybdis in Homer’s Odyssey (and yet negligible tide range) Early Tide Prediction

Brouscon tidal almanac, 1543 The Tide and the Boston Tea Party U.S. Tide predicting machine in World War II Tide Predictions for D-Day

Tidal Illumination Diagram for Omaha Beach (June 1944)

Rommel’s underwater Obstacles (1944)

Original letters between Doodson and Farquharson. Interviewed participants. The 2004 Cockling Tragedy

– even today the tide can kill

Mudflats at low tide. 30-ft tide range. The tide swirled in and surrounded them. The water rose at 4½ feet an hour. Picture from the movie “Ghosts”. 23 Chinese immigrants drown.

Storm Surge Prediction

1634 along the North Friesland of Germany (1683 etching) ( Millions killed over the centuries ) Devastating Storm Surges in the (BURMA) Bay of Bengal 186418641864 StormStormStorm SurgeSurgeSurge ininin WestWestWest Bengal,Bengal,Bengal, IndiaIndiaIndia (80,000(80,000(80,000 dead)dead)dead) The Galveston Storm Surge of 1900

Deadliest natural in U.S. history (6,000 bodies found, probably 8,000 dead)

The Storm Surge that Led to the Birth of a Nation

1970 storm surge killed at least 300,000 killed (perhaps half a million) in East . No help from West Pakistan. Led to civil war, and the birth of .

Hurricane Katrina’s Storm Surge (accurately predicted thanks to and models) Hurricane Sandy’s Storm Surge

Forecast tracks of Hurricane Sandy predicted by various models at 2:00am Sunday, Oct 28, 2012, 42 hours before landfall at Atlantic City.

Observed Water Level versus Predicted Tide at The Battery, NY

Surge Occasionally a Hurricane Storm Surge can be Beneficial

Before Hurricane Sandy Storm Surge

Pictures by Charles Flagg

Inlet Created by Hurricane Sandy Storm Surge (pictured Sep 15,Surge 2013)

Could the story of Noah’s have been inspired Noah’s Ark by an enormous storm Euphrates surge produced by a very River rare from the Arabian Sea?

Wave Prediction

“Great ” woodblock print by Hokusai (1832) TheThe WaveWave PredictionPrediction thatthat ChangedChanged thethe WorldWorld (The(The BattleBattle ofof Salamis,Salamis, 480480 BC)BC) Benjamin Franklin and the Oil-damped Waves

Benjamin Franklin’s theory of how the wind generates waves

(200 years ahead of his time) Sea, , and Surf Forecasting

for D-Day (and after) at the Normandy Beaches in World War II

(Munk-Sverdrup) Predicting the really huge waves

(Near Shore)

(wave refraction focuses wave energy onto many lighthouse locations)

Gigantic wave striking the Eddystone Lighthouse, built in 1759 (1843 etching) Predicting the really huge waves

(Moving Against Strong Ocean Currents)

The iron war steamer Nemesis among huge waves in the off the Cape of Good Hope. (1841 engraving)

Gulf Stream

The loss of the Marine Sulphur Queen in 1963 began the myth Florida of the Bermuda Current Triangle. The Queen Mary in New York Harbor, December 8, 1942

(over 16,000 American troops heading for ) Queen Mary almost capsized by a in 1942 Can we predict Rouge Waves?

Rogue wave striking the container M/V München in 1978

The supertanker World Glory split in half by a rogue wave in 1968

Tsunami Prediction

1755

Tsunami waves traveled across the Atlantic to islands in the Caribbean. Woodblock of tsunami striking Japanese village of Hiro in 1854

First remotely detected tsunami, across the at tide gauges in San Francisco and San Diego operated by the U.S. Coast Survey Self-registering tide gauges.

Krakatoa Tsunamis and the “Victorian Internet”

London

Boston

San Francisco

Krakatoa

Tsunamis50-ft from tsunamis the Krakatoa killed Eruption 35,000 killed 35,000

The world finally connected (in 1883 stories reach London and Boston in hours instead of weeks) 1,700-ft Rockslide , Rockslide run-up

1,700-ft run-up

500-ft local tsunami travels down Lituya Bay

Tsunami worn down to 100 feet

Father and son picked up in their fishing boat by the 100-ft tsunami

July 9, 1958 First 12 hours of the 2004 Tsunami 300,000 dead in first 2 hours (230,000 dead in first 30 minutes)

The first tsunami wave (16 ft) hit northern 13 minutes after the . The second wave was 115 ft high.

Destruction in , Sumatra after 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami , 2004 and the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunmai striking

KalmunaiKalmunai

OluvilOluvil

(The orphanage on 8,500 dead in Kalmunai. 2 dead in Oluvil. the .) An ?

Since ancient times, stories of becoming very upset prior to the arrival of a tsunami.

Krakatoa in 1883 -- circus elephant went berserk just prior to the tsunamis

2004 Indian Ocean tsunami -- elephants in many countries ran for the hills (often carrying tourists with them to safety).

Due to Infra-sound (not a sixth sense)

Elephants also sense seismic waves (from the earthquake that caused the tsunami) travelling through the solid -- through their feet.

A warning signs of an approaching tsunami

A receding sea. A warning sign of an approaching tsunami

Too late for many. Stone Age Tribes Moken Sea Gypsies

Andaman &

SRI LANKA

Simeulue Tsunami Island Awareness in ancient and non-modern peoples “Smong” Krakatoa When tsunami awareness does not work – a Dry-Sea-Bed Detector

A receding sea – a warning sign of an imminent tsunami Tsunami March 11, 2011

before and after tsunami

Fujitsuka in

before and after Tsunami

Natori

Tsunami observed at tide gauges

Tide gauge destroyed

~29 minutes after earthquake began DART buoys around the Pacific DART off Japan coast

33 minutes after earthquake began Model Simulation of Japan Tsunami on March 11, 2011

International Institute of and , Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan Tsunami Travel Times Japan Tsunami 2011

El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

Global impacts of the sea.

Longer-term prediction.

1 Dec 1997 caused by 1877-1878 El Niño

China

India

Heavy rains and in Peru

(Davis, 2001)

10 million dead in India, large numbers dead in southern Africa, 10-20 million dead in China, the Dutch East Indies, the Philippines, 1 million dead in , and Korea Global Models Predicting Climate Change

Need regional models with better “certainty.” The Problems with Geo-engineering Solutions for Global Warming Tide predicting machines in WW 2 The tide predictions for D-Day Tide predicting machines in WW 2 The Power of the Sea

Tsunamis, storm surges, rogue waves, and our quest to predict disasters

Bruce Parker

CONTENTS

Introduction: When the Sea Turns Against Us 16341634 stormstorm surgesurge alongalong GermanGerman coastcoast Escaping its fury through prediction The Galveston storm surge of 1900 Chapter 1: The Earliest Predictions For the Sea The tide Chapter 2: The , the , and the Sea The tide predictions for D-Day

Chapter 3: The Sea’s Greatest Killer Predicting storm surges Chapter 4: Defending Our Flooded Cities

RogueRogue waveswaves Chapter 5: Stormy WaveWave forecastingforecasting Predicting sea, swell, and surf Chapter 6: “Holes” in the Surface of the Sea Rogue waves

Chapter 7: The Sea’s Response to an Unpredictable Earth Trying to predict tsunamis Chapter 8: December 26, 2004 (Part 1) Tragic surprise in the Indian Ocean Chapter 9: December 26, 2004 (Part 2) 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami 17551755 LisbonLisbon TsunamiTsunami Learning from a tragedy

Chapter 10: Predicting the Future – and Saving Lives El Niño, climate change, and a global ocean observing system

Afterword The Unpredictable and the Unprepared The 2011 Japan Tsunami

The Power

of the Sea

Tsunamis, storm surges, rogue waves,

and our quest to predict disasters

Bruce Parker

Look in the

ENDNOTES

ThePoweroftheSea.com and Facebook.com/ThePoweroftheSea

Reviews "Mixes hair-raising descriptions of disasters with efforts to understand them ... a lucid, original contribution to popular-science writing." – Kirkus Reviews

"Anyone who appreciates the fact that the sea remains something we cannot control will love this book. You will come away with a better understanding of why the sea will leave us in awe till the end of time." – Jim Cantore, The Weather Channel

“Riveting readers with analyses of catastrophes such the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, Parker delivers science in dramatic and digestible form.” – Booklist the power “From the ancient tides to ingenious ways of predicting tsunamis and of the weighing the impact of climate change today, Bruce Parker's The Power of the Sea is an engaging and essential history of science. It’s also a terrific account of survival on our wild blue planet.” – David Helvarg, author of Saved by the Sea

“Rarely does a book written by a practicing scientist grab you like this one. Intelligent, accurate, and accessible … read Bruce Parker’s wonderful book. – Richard Ellis, author of The Empty Ocean and Tuna: Love, Death, and Mercury.

“All who play or live near the sea should read this book. Be warned, you may never look at the ocean the same way again.” – John Kretschmer, author of At The Mercy of the Sea and columnist for Sailing magazine