The Power of the Sea Tsunamis, storm surges, rogue waves, and our quest to predict disasters Bruce Parker former Chief Scientist, National Ocean Service, NOAA and presently, Visiting Professor Center for Maritime Systems/Davidson Lab Stevens Institute of Technology the power published by Palgrave Macmillan of the The History and Importance of Marine Prediction BUT written for a general audience, with stories of unpredicted natural disasters interwoven with stories of scientific discoveries. When the sea turns its enormous power against us, our best defense is to get out of its way. But to do that we must first be able to PREDICT when and where the sea will strike. A history of marine prediction the power from ancient mankind’s strange ideas about the sea of the to our latest technological advances in predicting the sea's moments of destruction. But in an accessible way for general audiences. It interweaves stories of unpredicted natural disasters with stories of scientific discoveries. [Raise public awareness] Predicting Tides Storm Surges Wind Waves Tsunamis El Niño Climate Change earliest ; 20th Century World War II; only once the ~6-months ~global averages, crudely in now accurate good global models, earthquake ahead, but but “uncertainty” ancient times (was deadliest) but not rogue waves has occurred still problems about regional predictions Tidal bores 15431543 TidalTidal AtlasAtlas TidalTidal whirlpoolswhirlpools Tide predictions for D-Day Napoleon’sNapoleon’s escapeescape Tide Predictions fromfrom thethe RedRed SeaSea tidestides The earliest predictions for the Sea TheThe “parting”“parting” ofof thethe RedRed SeaSea Miles of mudflats revealed at Low Tide. 40 feet Near Bristol, UK, at Low Water (40 ft tidal range) Mont-Saint-Michel in the Gulf of St. Malo, France 45-foot tidal range Napoleon In Egypt Gulf of Suez “Red Sea” Napoleon’s escape from the Red Sea tides on December 28, 1798 (1852 etching) DidDid thethe ExodusExodus acrossacross thethe RedRed SeaSea dependdepend onon aa tidetide predictionprediction byby MosesMoses ?? (Etching by Gustave Doré, 1866) Alexander the Great and the Tidal Bore in the Indus River (325 AD) Oldest Tide Table Tidal bore is for the tidal bore on in the the Qiantang River at Yanguan,China in 1056. Qiantang River, China. Wu Tzu-Hsu (1900(1900 etching)etching) Narrowing width and large tide range at entrance TidalTidal BoreBore onon thethe QiantangQiantang RiverRiver inin ChinaChina (( breakingbreaking wavewave crestcrest coveringcovering thethe entireentire widthwidth ofof thethe riverriver )) (( cancan bebe 1515--2525 feetfeet highhigh andand gogo upup thethe riverriver atat 1515 knotsknots )) Tidal Whirlpools Malström between southern Loften Islands, Norway Tidal Whirlpool in Strait of Messina Scylla and Charybdis in Homer’s Odyssey (and yet negligible tide range) Early Tide Prediction Brouscon tidal almanac, 1543 The Tide and the Boston Tea Party U.S. Tide predicting machine in World War II Tide Predictions for D-Day Tidal Illumination Diagram for Omaha Beach (June 1944) Rommel’s underwater Obstacles (1944) Original letters between Doodson and Farquharson. Interviewed participants. The 2004 Morecambe Bay Cockling Tragedy – even today the tide can kill Mudflats at low tide. 30-ft tide range. The tide swirled in and surrounded them. The water rose at 4½ feet an hour. Picture from the movie “Ghosts”. 23 Chinese immigrants drown. Storm Surge Prediction 1634 storm surge along the North Friesland coast of Germany (1683 etching) ( Millions killed over the centuries ) Devastating Storm Surges in the (BURMA) Bay of Bengal 186418641864 StormStormStorm SurgeSurgeSurge ininin WestWestWest Bengal,Bengal,Bengal, IndiaIndiaIndia (80,000(80,000(80,000 dead)dead)dead) The Galveston Storm Surge of 1900 Deadliest natural disaster in U.S. history (6,000 bodies found, probably 8,000 dead) The Storm Surge that Led to the Birth of a Nation 1970 storm surge killed at least 300,000 killed (perhaps half a million) in East Pakistan. No help from West Pakistan. Led to civil war, and the birth of Bangladesh. Hurricane Katrina’s Storm Surge (accurately predicted thanks to satellites and models) Hurricane Sandy’s Storm Surge Forecast tracks of Hurricane Sandy predicted by various models at 2:00am Sunday, Oct 28, 2012, 42 hours before landfall at Atlantic City. Observed Water Level versus Predicted Tide at The Battery, NY Surge Occasionally a Hurricane Storm Surge can be Beneficial Before Hurricane Sandy Storm Surge Pictures by Charles Flagg Inlet Created by Hurricane Sandy Storm Surge (pictured Sep 15,Surge 2013) Could the story of Noah’s flood have been inspired Noah’s Ark by an enormous storm Euphrates surge produced by a very River rare tropical cyclone from the Arabian Sea? Wave Prediction “Great Wave” woodblock print by Hokusai (1832) TheThe WaveWave PredictionPrediction thatthat ChangedChanged thethe WorldWorld (The(The BattleBattle ofof Salamis,Salamis, 480480 BC)BC) Benjamin Franklin and the Oil-damped Waves Benjamin Franklin’s theory of how the wind generates waves (200 years ahead of his time) Sea, Swell, and Surf Forecasting for D-Day (and after) at the Normandy Beaches in World War II (Munk-Sverdrup) Predicting the really huge waves (Near Shore) (wave refraction focuses wave energy onto many lighthouse locations) Gigantic wave striking the Eddystone Lighthouse, built in 1759 (1843 etching) Predicting the really huge waves (Moving Against Strong Ocean Currents) The iron war steamer Nemesis among huge waves in the Agulhas Current off the Cape of Good Hope. (1841 engraving) Gulf Stream The loss of the Marine Sulphur Queen in 1963 began the myth Florida of the Bermuda Current Triangle. The Queen Mary in New York Harbor, December 8, 1942 (over 16,000 American troops heading for Scotland) Queen Mary almost capsized by a rogue wave in 1942 Can we predict Rouge Waves? Rogue wave striking the container ship M/V München in 1978 The supertanker World Glory split in half by a rogue wave in 1968 Tsunami Prediction 1755 Lisbon Tsunami Tsunami waves traveled across the Atlantic to islands in the Caribbean. Woodblock of tsunami striking Japanese village of Hiro in 1854 First remotely detected tsunami, across the Pacific Ocean at tide gauges in San Francisco and San Diego operated by the U.S. Coast Survey Self-registering tide gauges. Krakatoa Tsunamis and the “Victorian Internet” London Boston San Francisco Krakatoa Tsunamis50-ft from tsunamis the Krakatoa killed Eruption 35,000 killed 35,000 The world finally connected (in 1883 stories reach London and Boston in hours instead of weeks) 1,700-ft Rockslide Lituya Bay, Alaska Rockslide run-up 1,700-ft run-up 500-ft local tsunami travels down Lituya Bay Tsunami worn down to 100 feet Father and son picked up in their fishing boat by the 100-ft tsunami July 9, 1958 First 12 hours of the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami 300,000 dead in first 2 hours (230,000 dead in first 30 minutes) The first tsunami wave (16 ft) hit northern Sumatra 13 minutes after the submarine earthquake. The second wave was 115 ft high. Destruction in Aceh, Sumatra after 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami December 26, 2004 Bathymetry and the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunmai striking Sri Lanka KalmunaiKalmunai OluvilOluvil (The orphanage on 8,500 dead in Kalmunai. 2 dead in Oluvil. the barrier island.) An elephant tsunami warning system? Since ancient times, stories of elephants becoming very upset prior to the arrival of a tsunami. Krakatoa in 1883 -- circus elephant went berserk just prior to the tsunamis 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami -- elephants in many countries ran for the hills (often carrying tourists with them to safety). Due to Infra-sound (not a sixth sense) Elephants also sense seismic waves (from the earthquake that caused the tsunami) travelling through the solid earth -- through their feet. A warning signs of an approaching tsunami A receding sea. A warning sign of an approaching tsunami Too late for many. MYANMAR Stone Age Tribes Moken Sea Gypsies Andaman & Nicobar Islands THAILAND INDIA SRI LANKA Simeulue Tsunami Island Awareness in ancient and non-modern peoples “Smong” Krakatoa When tsunami awareness does not work – a Dry-Sea-Bed Detector A receding sea – a warning sign of an imminent tsunami Japan Tsunami March 11, 2011 before and after tsunami Fujitsuka in Sendai before and after Tsunami Natori Tsunami observed at tide gauges Tide gauge destroyed ~29 minutes after earthquake began DART buoys around the Pacific DART buoy off Japan coast 33 minutes after earthquake began Model Simulation of Japan Tsunami on March 11, 2011 International Institute of Seismology and Earthquake Engineering, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan Tsunami Travel Times Japan Tsunami 2011 El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Global impacts of the sea. Longer-term prediction. 1 Dec 1997 Droughts caused by 1877-1878 El Niño China India Heavy rains and floods in Peru (Davis, 2001) 10 million dead in India, large numbers dead in southern Africa, 10-20 million dead in China, the Dutch East Indies, the Philippines, 1 million dead in Brazil, and Korea Global Models Predicting Climate Change Need regional models with better “certainty.” The Problems with Geo-engineering Solutions for Global Warming Tide predicting machines in WW 2 The tide predictions for D-Day Tide predicting machines in WW 2 The Power of the Sea Tsunamis, storm surges, rogue waves, and our quest to predict disasters Bruce Parker CONTENTS Introduction: When the Sea Turns Against Us 16341634 stormstorm surgesurge alongalong GermanGerman coastcoast Escaping its fury through prediction