A publication of the

The Task Ahead Memos for the winner of the 2012 presidential election

With contributions from: Josef Ackermann Chuck Hagel Madeleine K. Albright James L. Jones, Jr.

Victor L.L. Chu Brent Scowcroft and others

Contents

Introduction — Capturing the challenge by Frederick Kempe 4

Introduction — Creative solutions for U.S. foreign policy challenges by Bruce Mosler 5

The challenge of change by Senator Chuck Hagel 7

The Atlantic Alliance transformed by Brent Scowcroft 10

Economic competitiveness and U.S. national security by James L. Jones, Jr. 14

Supporting democracy by Madeleine K. Albright 18

Fostering sources of growth across the Atlantic by Josef Ackermann 20

Relations with Pakistan: forging a new partnership by Shuja Nawaz 23

Enlightened engagement: U.S.-China relations by Victor L.L. Chu 26

Advancing U.S. nonproliferation goals globally by Ellen Tauscher 29

Catalyzing democratic progress in the Middle East by Zalmay Khalilzad 32

Reinventing the transatlantic partnership by Harlan Ullman 38

Playing the long game against the Iranian threat by Barry Pavel 42

Strategic engagement with Russia 2013-17 by Thomas R. Pickering 46

Homeland security in the 21st century by Frances Fragos Townsend 48

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3 Capturing the challenge

harles Dickens, in his A Tale of Two Cities—set during the French Revolution and at the dawn of the Industrial Age—summed up the situation in a manner that also captures the range of challenges facing whoever is elected as U.S. president this November: “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times…it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness…it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair…we were all going direct to C Heaven, we were all going direct the other way…” We don’t yet know who will sit in the Oval Office on January 21, 2013, but we do have a good idea about the firestorm of issues he'll face. The transformational period we're about to pass through has the potential to be as dramatic as that of the political and economic upheavals of the late By Frederick Kempe eighteenth century, and thus electoral choices have outsized importance. President and CEO It is for that reason we summoned, from the impressive Atlantic Atlantic Council Council community, a list of authors who have written more than their share of memos to previous presidents of both parties. They include former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, Lieutenant General Brent Scowcroft, General James L. Jones, and two-term Nebraska Senator Chuck Hagel, the Atlantic Council’s chairman. Their input ranges from the advice of Zal Khalilzad, our former ambassador in Iraq, on how the next President can promote positive change in the Mideast, to the recommendations of our former ambassador to Moscow, Tom Pickering, about how to manage relations with Vladimir Putin’s Russia. From Europe, Josef Ackermann—one of the world’s premier financial minds—outlines how the West can avoid a decade of deflation, underemployment and stagnant growth. From Asia, Victor Chu sees historic opportunities with China. We publish these papers now because we want to enrich the debate during an election campaign that we fear will provide mostly heat when we need light. No single volume can capture all the worthy authors and issues, but we thank those who contributed here. A particular thanks to Bruce Mosler, our board director and chairman of Cushman Wakefield who, with Atlantic Council senior adviser Harlan Ullman, inspired and co-chaired this project.

4 Creative solutions for U.S. foreign policy challenges

olitical pundits have described each and every presidential election as decisive and/or crucial to determining the fate of the United States. Arguably, the 2012 elections can be looked at as a moment when our country is at a crossroads of soaring debt, slow GDP growth, and anemic employment numbers. However, perhaps less visible but equally important to the future of the United States is the course of international events. The purpose of these papers is to foster conversation, debate and, with a degree of Poptimism, to find some creative solutions to the challenges that America faces in a global environment. It is more important than ever before that the American electorate be exposed to a thoughtful, nonpartisan debate on the major international issues in order to make a more informed decision about the future leadership of our country. As a result of this, I have offered my strong support to this project in the By Bruce Mosler expectation that through the course of informed conversation we can assess and Project Co-Chairman identify solutions to the most challenging international issues that are likely to with paper contributor face the winner of this November’s presidential election. To be clear, we count Harlan Ullman among our contributors a bipartisan list of top-flight experts, all of whom have rich experience in advising presidents on major foreign policy issues. It is our clear goal that these thought-provoking memos will help to shape the foreign policy debate on the campaign trail and ultimately offer new ideas that are implementable and executable in the near future. The challenges and the opportunities are too great to do otherwise. I am pleased that these papers will serve as a flagship project of the Atlantic Council’s new Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security. The Center’s nonpartisan orientation and goal of bringing America’s allies, partners, and friends into the U.S. policy conversation will make a valuable addition to the international debate in the decades to come. I hope you read these memos with care because, most importantly, their value is what each will contribute to the foreign policy debate this campaign season.

5

The challenge of change

American leadership was hugely successful in shaping the modern postwar world, but the forces of change are gathering pace, and today a different type of strategic thinking is required. American foreign policy needs to move from a more military orientation to one that takes the new complexities into account and focuses more on economic strength and energy security, and on fostering partnerships and alliances of common interests

structure and order that we had A successful American foreign inherited from the 19th century policy must include thinking through was gone and that the struggle to actions and policies, and how replace it would be directed from two uncontrollable and unpredictable bitterly opposed and ideologically global forces may affect outcomes. irreconcilable power centers.” Eleven years of invasions and Staying a step ahead of the occupations have put the U.S. in forces of change requires an a deep hole and mired us down in ability to foresee and appreciate terribly costly commitments in the consequences of our actions, blood, treasure, and prestige. Our a willingness to learn the hard diplomatic and security flexibility lessons of history and from our own has been seriously eroded by many experiences, and a clear realization of the decisions of the last eleven By Senator Chuck Hagel of the limitations of great power. years. Too often we tend to confuse Acheson and the Wise Men of that tactical action for strategic thinking. time got it right. America led the new world order is shaping of the post-Second World A matter of mutual understanding being built today War world order through strong American foreign policy has always by seven billion inspired leadership, a judicious required a principled realism that is global citizens. (most of the time) use of its power, true to our values as we face the world America’s and working with allies through as it really is in all of its complexities. responsibilities alliances and institutions. This We need to accept the reality that in this new world and to future has helped prevent a Third World there is not a short-term solution to generationsA are as enormous as War and a nuclear holocaust. every problem in the world. What they are humbling. The challenges The world we face in 2012 is of we must do is manage these realities and choices before us demand a different character than even a and complex problems, moving leadership that reaches into the few years ago. Many developing them into positions of solution future without stumbling over nations are fragile states and are possibilities and resolution. today. They also require challenging under enormous pressure from American foreign policy has always every past frame of reference. terrorism, endemic poverty, dared to project a vision of a world Sensing the realities and subtleties environmental challenges, debt, where all things are possible. If we of historic change are not always corruption, civil unrest, and regional, are to succeed, we must understand sudden or obvious. As former tribal, and religious conflicts. The how the world sees us. Turn on our Secretary of State Dean Acheson result is a climate of despair, and receivers more often and shut off our recounted, “Only slowly did it potential breeding grounds for transmitters. This is a vital priority for dawn upon us that the whole world radical politics and extremism. a successful 21st century foreign policy.

7 We must also avoid the traps of hubris, force structure cannot sustain its peace and prosperity. America must ideology and insularity, and know that commitments without a shift to remain the global champion of free, there is little margin for error with a more comprehensive strategic fair and open trade. As the world’s the stakes so high in the world today. approach to global threats and a strongest, largest and most dynamic America must strengthen its global more flexible and agile military. economy, America must continue to alliances. Common-interest alliances Cyber warfare is a paramount lead world trade. Economic strength will be required in a volatile world of example of these new threats. must be as high a priority as any historic diffusions of power. The great The perception of American power other foreign policy priority. challenges facing the world today are around the world must not rest America’s security and growth are the responsibility of all peoples of the solely on a military orientation or connected to both the American and world. They include cyber warfare, optic. There must be an underlying global economies. A centerpiece of terrorism, preventing the proliferation commitment to engagement and this security is energy security. Energy of weapons of mass destruction, humanity. Engagement is not security and energy interdependence regional conflicts, prosperity and appeasement, nor is it negotiation. are interconnected parts of a broad stability, and global poverty, disease It is not a guarantee of anything, and deep foreign policy paradigm and environmental degradation. Our but rather a smart diplomatic that frames the complexity of allies throughout the world the challenges that face share these same challenges America and the world. and threats and will also A diverse portfolio of be just as affected by the energy that is accessible outcomes. These will be either Common-interest alliances and affordable is the core of our common successes or our America’s energy security. common failures. America will be required in a Much of the world’s energy cannot be successful with any volatile world of historic is produced in countries and of these challenges, without diffusions of power regions that are consumed sustained partnerships and by civil unrest, lack of deep cooperation in the human rights, corruption, economic, intelligence, underdevelopment, and diplomatic, humanitarian, conflict. The price of oil military and law enforcement fields. bridge to better understanding is driven by supply and demand The centrality of alliances and possible conflict resolution. and the global market. We must and multi-lateral institutions American foreign policy must ensure diversification of sources of to a successful foreign policy reflect the realities and demands of the supply and distribution networks to is fundamental. Alliances and global economy. The global economy prevent undue dependence on any multi-lateral institutions must be cannot be shut out of foreign policy. one country or region. Instability understood as expansions of our There can be no higher priority for and violence disrupt supply and influence, not as constraints on America than to remain economically distribution and increase prices. our power. Alliances are imperfect, competitive in a world undergoing a as are all institutions. But like historic diffusion of economic power. Shaping change “process,” they help absorb shocks. A nation’s strength is anchored to The risks that the world faces today and underpinned by its economic are great, but so is the capacity to Beyond military solutions strength. The connections between deal with them. America must not Alliances must be built on solid America’s trade, economic, and energy fear change, but rather embrace foundations to handle both routine policies must also be synthesized it and help shape it, and with our and sudden unforeseen challenges. into a strategic vision for American partners help lead the world to a Crisis-driven “coalitions of the foreign policy that not only meets the higher purpose of peace, opportunity willing” by themselves are not challenges of our time, but frames the and dignity for all. Challenge and the building blocks for a stable completeness of long-term policies for response are sources of strength. world. We need to think more strategic future outcomes. Trade is a The American image in the world broadly, deeply and strategically. major catalyst for economic strength will require continued repair. The American military power and and growth at home and abroad, as coin of the realm for any leadership well as a critical stabilizer for world will always be trust and confidence.

8 Peacekeeping initiatives are a key element of US strategy when it comes to international relations

Without it, there is no leadership. the world into workable and positive A wise American foreign policy actions that benefit all peoples; Senator Chuck Hagel is chairman for the early part of the 21st century listens to our friends and understands of the Atlantic Council. A former two- is one that realizes that we enhance their interests; understands term senator representing Nebraska our standing in the world not just the dangerous forces that will (1997-2009), Hagel was a senior member through our power, but through continue to influence a complicated of the Senate Foreign Relations and our purpose; understands that great interconnected world; has learned Intelligence Committees. He is currently power has its limits, and that we the disastrous lessons of invasion co-chair of President Obama’s Intelligence must share the heavy responsibilities and occupation; and balances our Advisory Board and a distinguished of world leadership with our allies; policies and actions with an honest professor at Georgetown University appreciates that together we can present and future perspective. shape the interconnected realities of

9 The Atlantic Alliance transformed

The success of NATO's intervention in Libya demonstrates how effective the partnership can be in tackling overseas contingencies. For the Alliance to remain relevant, however, the United States will need to encourage reform of the alliance, and NATO must strengthen its strategic dialogue with the emerging powers and foster combined approaches if it is to meet tomorrow's global security challenges

the willing within NATO structures. Alliance and how to maximize its For this model to work effectively relevance for future U.S. foreign policy in the future, NATO will need to objectives, and as you weigh our own transform its internal processes to declining appetite and resources become more flexible and adaptable, to act alone, it would be useful to and the Alliance will need to build take into account the following a broader and deeper array of global lessons from the Libya mission: relationships for an uncertain world. First, NATO remains the world’s only institution capable of rapid Lessons from NATO’s Libya success and effective multilateral military NATO’s 2011 intervention in Libya action. When the United Nations was flawed but ultimately successful. Security Council passed Resolution The Alliance—and by extension 1973 calling for the protection of By Brent Scowcroft the United States—achieved its civilians and the Arab League called objectives with no allied casualties, for international intervention, NATO minor collateral damage, and was the only multilateral institution s the U.S. inclination limited U.S. engagement. capable of undertaking the operation. and ability to act As President, you may wish to Second, many regional partners unilaterally decline, consider how the Libya operation are seeking a deeper relationship the North Atlantic provides a model for how the Alliance with NATO to safeguard their Treaty Organization can operate in future contingencies security and enhance their global becomes an even as it winds down from over a decade role, rather than engage in one-off, more vital tool for foreign and defense of combat in Afghanistan. ad-hoc coalitions of the willing. policy.A However, NATO will only Specifically, NATO responded to Claims from skeptics that NATO’s be relevant to new U.S. strategic calls from a regional organization intervention would be politically toxic priorities and geopolitical realities if to intervene; secured United in Libya were proven wrong. Critical it changes the way it does business. Nations authorization to act; rapidly partners in the Libya operation Despite flaws in its execution, the integrated critical regional players included the Arab League as well as ultimate success of NATO’s Libya into its mission; acted as a coalition the Gulf Cooperation Council, whose campaign may serve as a model for of the willing using NATO structures; members have enjoyed long-standing Alliance operations in the future by and relied upon allies and partners partnership programs with NATO. working closely with key regional to lead combat operations. As you These partners bring global partners and acting as a coalition of think about the future of the Atlantic credibility, a regional blessing,

10 Libyans celebrating the fall of Gaddafi in front of the White House were testament to NATO's successful operation

11 Strategic dialogue with emerging powers such as China will be vital

and local capabilities to Allied economic competitiveness, the rise of In particular, NATO should operations and efforts. China, and other urgent priorities. strengthen its partnerships Third, not all allies may choose to NATO reform certainly cannot with the following major participate in discretionary non- compete with these urgent challenges regional organizations: Article 5 operations. Only eight as a foreign policy priority of your • Arab League: Turmoil and of the twenty-eight NATO allies administration. However, because instability in the Middle East are chose to participate in launching air the United States cannot fully likely to increase during your term. strikes in Libya, while some allies address the challenges listed above The crises in Libya and Syria have participated in different ways, and unilaterally, your transatlantic allies brought about greater coherence still others—most notably Germany— will be the most effective partners in and activity from the Arab League chose not to participate at all. achieving your foreign policy goals. in offering political leadership on Differences in interests, capabilities, At the same time, the emergence regional crises, but its members still and strategic culture may produce of new powers and global challenges largely lack capability to provide similar divisions in the future but, means that the Atlantic community effective action. In the case of as Libya demonstrated, that need must develop closer linkages to complex military operations, the not automatically preclude willing partners outside the Euro-Atlantic area Arab League would still need to call allies from using NATO assets and who can help address the challenges on NATO or NATO members to act. structures to accomplish the mission. of a globalized world. Doing so with NATO should enhance its political Libya demonstrated that more your European allies will be much engagement with the Arab League, than two decades after the collapse more effective than the United States whose support would be critical in of the Berlin Wall, the Alliance can trying to do so without them. any future intervention or NATO remain a vital and relevant tool for NATO should remain an Atlantic peacekeeping role in the region. your presidency. For it to remain alliance and should not consider • Gulf Cooperation Council: Both the relevant, your administration will global membership, as some called United States and its top European need to demonstrate leadership for several years ago. However, based allies have major strategic interests in NATO to convince the allies to on the lessons of Libya, it should in the security and stability of the embrace a more ambitious partnership strengthen its relationships with Persian Gulf. In particular, Iran is a agenda and undertake reforms to key regional bodies, international common threat to many members NATO’s decision-making processes. organizations, and major states of the Alliance, as well as to the around the world. Proactively forming members of the GCC. Leading A partnership agenda for the future partnerships and strengthening GCC members such as the UAE, As President, you will be faced with a existing relationships will ensure that Qatar, and Jordan have experience range of challenges that are covered the Alliance is best equipped to act working with the Alliance and are amply in this compendium, including quickly and effectively if called on to eager to expand their partnerships Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan, intervene in a global security crisis. with NATO. Your administration

12 should make the strengthening of Atlantic Council in advance of any the North Atlantic Council should these partnerships a top priority. future operations, so that they share consider the following alternatives: • African Union: NATO’s European in the planning of contingencies • NATO acts as twenty-eight. In members in particular have every where they may participate. NATO’s situations where the Alliance interest in enhancing the capability emerging 'Smart Defense' framework invokes Article 5, or where all and capacity of the African Union might be one such approach. members otherwise feel compelled to address regional crises. NATO Strategic dialogue with to act for reasons of solidarity, can make a significant impact on emerging powers: NATO should such as in Afghanistan, NATO training and security sector reform strengthen its strategic dialogue can decide that it wishes to act in Africa at a relatively low financial and consultation with the emerging as twenty-eight, as envisioned and political cost to its members. powers that are likely to take on a by the Washington Treaty. • ASEAN: As the United States focuses greater share of global governance • NATO as a coalition of the willing. more of its strategic attention in the decades to come. In crises that have disparate on Asia, it should encourage the These conversations with countries impacts on Alliance members, Alliance to strengthen its dialogue such as Russia, China, India, Brazil, NATO can decide that the crisis and interaction with ASEAN. Indonesia and others will not be is of interest to the Alliance, but Doing so will keep the United easy nor readily produce results, but not all allies wish to participate in States’ transatlantic partners they will be important in building the operation. In this case, NATO involved in strategic questions of trust, transparency, and fostering command and control and assets the Asia-Pacific region can be used in the operation, and strengthen the as was the case in Libya. This multilateral approaches means of operating is likely to the complex problems NATO’s tradition of to be the future template for looming there. operating by consensus has action for the Alliance in crisis In addition to its management operations. relationships with key become more complex as • NATO declines to act. In regional organizations, the Alliance has expanded situations where several NATO will also want key NATO members object to consider how it can to military action, the best enhance important Alliance can decline to act bilateral partnerships. NATO’s joint approaches to the common as an Alliance to address the bilateral partnerships fall into two challenges of a globalized world. crisis. That would not preclude categories: operational partners individual members, including and emerging partners. Reforming NATO decision-making the United States, from acting Deepening operational A second priority of your unilaterally or in conjunction relationships: NATO’s operations administration should be to with other willing NATO states. in Afghanistan and Libya have encourage reform of NATO to If the United States leads NATO created particularly strong ties with allow the twenty-eight-member to undertake these important key national contributors outside organization to best address the efforts, then your entire foreign the Alliance from Europe to the security challenges of the future. and security policy agenda can Middle East and Asia. With NATO’s NATO’s tradition of operating become easier to accomplish. operations in Libya complete and by consensus has become more coming to a close in Afghanistan, complex as the Alliance has Lt. Gen. Brent Scowcroft is chairman the Alliance must think about expanded its membership and as of the Atlantic Council International how best to preserve these close it faces an array of nontraditional Advisory Board and president and relationships with key operational security challenges that do not founder of The Scowcroft Group. A partners in the years to come. threaten all members equally. former two-time national security NATO should focus in particular on The Alliance should change the way advisor to Presidents Gerald Ford and how to maintain interoperability it addresses crises at the North Atlantic George H.W. Bush, Scowcroft also with these contributing partners Council to avoid paralysis in the face served in the United States Air Force and better integrate them into its of complex and fast-moving security strategic discussions at the North challenges. When faced with a crisis,

13 Economic competitiveness and U.S. national security

The United States must bolster the presence of America’s highly capable but under- deployed private sector in strategically key regions of the world in order to enhance diplomacy, improve foreign relations and, in turn, safeguard U.S. national security

an evolving security environment, noting that “four American it is logical to attempt to increase companies (in Kurdistan) are worth America’s influence by capitalizing two Army divisions” when it comes on the enormous potential of our to building goodwill and sustaining private sector. Doing so is imperative influence. Yet he remains frustrated in this era of global economic by the relative absence of the U.S. integration in which prosperity private sector and by obsolete and security are inseparable. Today, U.S. policies that impede greater entrepreneurs, investors and American business engagement in innovators are as instrumental as a region which has been defined diplomats, generals and politicians by many as “the next Dubai.” in winning friends and influencing Partly, the absence of America’s attitudes at the all-important grass- private sector from less-developed By General James L. Jones, Jr. roots level of the global community. but strategically key areas is the result of market factors and a high level of Background risk aversion on the part of mature s America considers Many allies, friends and influential enterprises. The problem, however, its global strategy in parties in strategically vital regions of is deepened significantly by 20th this still young and the world (the Middle East, South Asia century impediments erected by opportunity-filled and Africa) remain eager for economic the federal government for a world century, we have the engagement with the U.S. More that no longer exists. These range chance to deploy a often, however, they find the Chinese from specific policies, such as over- potent but under-utilized asset. This knocking at their door. China’s restrictive travel restrictions that isA our nation’s vast and highly capable ‘go-out’ strategy is increasing its discourage economic interaction, private sector. U.S. businesses and global influence and competitiveness to more general and pervasive NGOs can help to enhance diplomacy in up-and-coming regions while problems such as the reflexive and improve foreign relations, America’s economic engagement in distrust and adversarial approach that filling the vacuum as our uniformed many of these areas is slipping behind. government too frequently adopts presence is readjusted after a decade Increasingly, leaders in these regions in dealing with the private sector. of military and civil reconstruction are asking: “Where is America?” In today’s global economy and in Iraq and Afghanistan. President Barzani of Iraq’s complex security environment, our In ‘pivoting’ ourselves to better Kurdistan region gave powerful public and private sectors must work face emerging global trends and expression to the dynamic recently, together to advance U.S. interests and

14 The U.S. must ensure its entrepreneurs, investors and innovators are not pushed out by foreign competitors in regions of strategic political significance

15 values abroad. This memo suggests hungry for economic partnership we are perceived as content to adopt strategic areas where we should focus with the United States can help to a relatively passive posture with on bolstering U.S. private-sector increase our influence by building regard to competing on the continent. presence and identifies steps that we relationships at the grass-roots level As President Kagame of Rwanda can take to foster better positioning. where they are most enduring and commented recently, “It’s interesting Kurdistan: the people of Iraq’s conducive to international harmony. to note that as America pivots Kurdish region love America. The risk lies in not having a strategy to towards Asia, Asia is pivoting Kurdistan is a stable, secure and deal with each instance as it happens. toward Africa.” If America ignores flourishing semi-autonomous region Security, economic development, the staggering opportunity in that possesses significant natural and a rule of law that reflects the will Africa, others will fill the void. The resources. America has a long of those that led these revolutions consequences of our inertia will be history with the Kurds dating back are the three pillars upon which felt in still more losses of American to Operation Provide Comfort in long-term success must be built. The jobs, an increasing absence of strategic 1991, when a U.S.-led international United States has a great opportunity relationships, and the erosion of military mission rescued the Kurdish to lead an international effort that goodwill that could otherwise be population from possible genocide can rapidly respond to the demands within our grasp. Let there be no at the hands of Saddam Hussein. The of the people and avoid the Arab mistake: Africa wants the United Kurdish Regional Government, now Spring upheavals being captured States to be “present and not absent.” the governing authority in Kurdistan, by radical elements that happen This is a pivotal time for Africa. very much desires the investment to be better organized, but do not It is an enormous continent that and presence of U.S. companies. represent the will of the people. can be influenced either by China But with only a few exceptions the offering a troublesome model of state response has been disappointing. African opportunity capitalism and the subordination of In pulling our troops out of Iraq, In the case of Kurdistan, fears that human rights to political objectives, where we have sacrificed so much, the engagement of American-owned or by the United States and Europe, without a comprehensive strategy to companies will undermine America’s possibly offering a better future fill the vacuum of influence that is ‘One Iraq Policy’ are ill-founded. based on free enterprise, competitive left, we would suffer a monumental On the contrary, the ability of the markets and fundamental human loss of face. The vacuum would Kurdistan Regional Government to rights. The decision to establish the be filled by those who are in demonstrate what is possible when U.S. Africa Command (USAFRICOM) opposition to our interests. This government and society create a safe, was based on an understanding of would be a grave strategic error. stable and welcoming environment the continent’s strategic importance Our interests in the Middle East for domestic enterprise and foreign and the need for us to engage more are today more significant than ever. partners will serve as an instructive rigorously at both the civilian and The Arab Spring can change the and inspirational model for the military levels. If this engagement region in a positive way for a long whole of Iraq. At the very least, it is to be successful, it must include time to come. The potential benefits, represents an opportunity to send the energetic participation of however, bump up against numerous a strong message to the Maliki the U.S. private sector, which is dangers, including those posed by regime that its flirtations with Iran uniquely suited to bring beneficial Iran’s nuclear ambitions, threats and support of Syria are not what investment, trade and economic to the flow of oil from the Persian we had in mind when we liberated development to the table. Gulf, and the abject failure of the Iraq from Saddam Hussein. Africa, every bit as much as Middle East Peace Process to date. Africa: The strategic importance of Asia, represents the competitive It is in America’s national security Africa is clearly on the rise. The region battleground of the future. The interest to obtain influence on every is rich in human capital and natural sooner we realize this fact, the sooner front possible in this strategically resources, and offers unmatched we can adjust our global strategy consequential region – from Kurdistan potential. Recognizing these realities, to commit the full weight of our to Arab Spring countries such as Libya the Chinese, in particular, are national influence to this continent. and most certainly in Syria when the highly active diplomatically and Eastern Europe: NATO has ruling tyrant is forced to depart. The economically on the continent. While welcomed into its fold new members engagement of our private sector with China applies a full-court press for from Eastern Europe, countries that Middle East countries and regions influence and economic engagement, love freedom, respect America and

16 policies to enhance American companies’ ability to compete with the globalized world.

Conclusion In sharp contrast to the 20th century, we now live in a multi-polar world, one which we largely created as a result of the enormous sacrifice of two World Wars and the vision that ensued. With the demise of the Soviet Union, the 20th century world has disappeared. We now face new challenges to our accustomed U.S. private sector involvement can help to prevent role, but these do not mean that we radical elements from exploiting the Arab Spring cannot be just as successful in this new century as we were in the last. are eager to participate in the global to identify market opportunities It will take work, discipline, tenacity economy and embrace modernity. and partnership for the U.S. private and vision by all of us. For those upon The United States has enormous sector in key strategic areas abroad; whose shoulders falls the mantle of national interests at stake in fostering • Improve the Commerce leadership, more will be asked. The the maturation of these countries Department’s process for nation will demand that our leaders and solidifying our political and approving ambassadorial make decisions for the common good economic ties with each of them. advocacy for firms seeking and that they set the example by how The nations of the former Soviet Bloc work and contracts overseas; those decisions are made. There is have wide-ranging needs and offer • Sponsor regional trade and no doubt that the world still wants tremendous opportunities as their investment fairs at home and and needs America; the question people continue their journey from abroad with an emphasis on areas today is whether America is able to oppression and poverty to freedom where the U.S. private sector rise to that challenge. The answer and prosperity. Again, our private is underrepresented and our will be determined by our elected sector can play an instrumental role strategic interests are significant; leaders and by the courage that they in facilitating this journey, developing • Increase the tempo of U.S. trade demonstrate in tackling issues that all closer strategic ties and winning for missions to key strategic areas; Americans know must be addressed. America greater influence that will • Vigorously pursue trade When a nation cannot bring itself pay dividends for many years to come. promotion, market access, to take on the issues it knows it must The U.S. government has the need, and investment liberalization address for its own good, then surely the opportunity and the capability arrangements between the U.S. that is the first true sign of decline. to foster greater private-sector and strategically vital countries; We should never let that happen. engagement in strategically vital • Improve the agility and areas around the globe. Here are some resourcing of our export General James L. Jones, Jr. is chairman- specific steps the U.S. government can promotion and financing designate of the Scowcroft Center on take to facilitate economic diplomacy effort to expand economic International Security at the Atlantic as an enabler of national influence engagement abroad energetically, Council. He most recently served as and foundation for goodwill abroad: appropriately and sustainably; national security advisor to President • Better integrate the private sector • Exercise presidential leadership Barack Obama. General Jones was also into diplomatic strategic planning, to set a tone strongly supportive supreme allied commander Europe and programs, priorities and operations; of government’s legitimate and commandant of the Marine Corps • Ensure that the private sector has important role in promoting the a forum for providing input and U.S. private sector’s interests and support to combatant commands engagements internationally; and U.S. country teams; • Embark on a complete overhaul • Bolster State Department efforts of our Export Control laws and

17 Supporting democracy

Democratic values belong at the heart of U.S. foreign policy. The defining struggle of the 21st century will not, as many have predicted, be a clash of religious civilizations. It will emerge instead as a competition between democratic and autocratic systems of government. This is a contest the United States should welcome, provided we retain the high ground earned through our painstaking history of renewal and sacrifice

the power of our example will wax or apply to others. But neither should we wane in parallel with the performance be reluctant to draw a clear distinction of our institutions and the loyalty between the merits of a democratic we demonstrate to our own ideals. system and one characterized During the Cold War, Communist by illegitimate leaders and the propagandists delighted in America’s chronic denial of human rights. slowness in guaranteeing equal In promoting democratic values, rights to its minority citizens. Today, there should be no limit to our our example is undermined less hopes, but our actions should not by perceptions of discrimination extend beyond the boundaries than by the appearance of paralysis of international law. Our policies in addressing economic problems. should take into account the varying Surveys indicate that the average challenges faced by democrats By Madeleine K. Albright Chinese is far more optimistic than in countries along the spectrum the average American (or European) between free and unfree. Our and that a majority of U.S. citizens methods should begin with moral merica’s most believe our country is headed in the suasion and the offer of a helping valuable wrong direction. This must change. hand, augmented by our Allies contribution to The most salutary elixir for and bolstered by partnerships with democracy is and American democracy would be an non-governmental organizations. always has been end to the gridlock and pandering The State Department and USAID the successful that now infect our politics and have excellent supportive programs, implementation of freedom at undermine effective decision-making. as do organizations affiliated with the home.A If our country had grown This will not happen overnight, but National Endowment for Democracy up in despotism, the world would I believe that a backlash is building (including the National Democratic be a different and far bleaker place. and that a more mature style of Institute, which I chair). We should Today, such attributes of the U.S. leadership will be rewarded by voters, also strongly encourage investment system as free and peaceful elections, refurbishing our country’s reputation and trade to enhance the economic an independent judiciary, civilian and clearing the way for positive steps prospects of fragile democracies. control of the military, diversity domestically and on the world stage. For supporters of liberty, in positions of authority and an Supporting democracy abroad patience and impatience both unfettered Internet and press remain requires both confidence and have a place. We have learned that free a source of inspiration to others. humility. The United States should institutions do not spring full-grown The accompanying caution is that, never consider itself exempt from from any country’s soil. Most nascent especially in this plugged-in world, criticism or an exception to rules that democracies face an array of obstacles,

18 including that of failing to meet lofty Emerging democracies must have time democratic governments and expectations. When that happens, to develop unifying characteristics— institutions, including the peaceful the risk is high that charlatans will including a clear sense of nationhood evolution of nondemocratic regimes. pounce, promising quick solutions and the formation, which is vital, Such a policy should not be seen in return for unrestrained power. of a middle class. The process of as abandoning the region’s more In fact, a generation or more is forging one country out of many responsible monarchs, whose position typically required to instill habits factions may seem daunting, but may be accommodated within of effective governance and to it is rarely impossible. On this the framework of constitutional harvest the material gains that point, the experience of Europe change. Popular representation can will lift standards of living. and America is instructive, as is be achieved through a variety of the miracle of India; if that land’s means, but the basic right of public A long-term view vast human canvas can thrive as a participation should be available to all Accordingly, outside assistance democracy, so too can any nation. who abide by democratic principles. must be sustained over a period Discussion of democracy in 2012 We should remember that the of years, and should include both and succeeding years will almost alternative to support for democracy is development aid and guidance— inevitably center on the Middle East complicity in the rule of governments where requested—on everything from and thus likely revive a familiar that lack the blessing of their own the basics of public administration to question: Is it wiser to support people. That policy would betray the the optimum role of civil society. At traditional leadership structures Arabs who are most sympathetic to the same time, leaders who promise in the hope that they will produce our values and reveal a preference a democratic transition should not stability or to encourage democratic for the sterile order of repression be allowed to ward off criticism by openings despite uncertainty over the rich and self-correcting offering only token reforms. Is a about where they will lead? sustainability of a free society. country truly moving in the right The temptation for policymakers direction or merely running in place? will be to avoid a firm answer, reacting Sharing our values That is a question we should always instead on a case-by-case basis. Unless we truly believe that our be prepared to ask and answer. This tendency to hedge bets will be principles and interests coincide, we Majority rule is democracy’s reinforced by pleas from regional can serve neither effectively. We must cornerstone but also its slippery slope. leaders, each of whom has a vested want for others what we most cherish Populations divided by ethnicity, interest in his country’s status quo. ourselves: the right to choose our own tribal connections, and religious Such a hesitant approach will surely leaders and to help shape the laws beliefs may fall apart completely if trail the pace of unfolding events by which we are governed. Far more voting is viewed as an all or nothing and—although intended to minimize than any particular personalities or proposition. It is natural for those risks—actually constitute a gamble programs, it is that right that defines who lose elections to feel disgruntled, on wobbly principles and shaky our claim to leadership and that yet they should neither fear for regimes. People want democracy; constitutes the hope of the world. their lives nor despair of the chance the choice we face is to stand with to do better in future balloting. those who block their way, or do Madeleine K. Albright was U.S. That is why the true test of what we can to clear the path. secretary of state from 1997 to 2001. democracy comes less with the The latter alternative—to make a She is the chair of Albright Stonebridge first election than with those that firm commitment to democracy—may Group and Albright Capital Management come after. The development of an be faulted for promising consistency LLC, as well as professor in the practice effective parliament is also crucial— in a region where every country has of diplomacy at the Georgetown both to enact laws and to provide its distinctive history, personalities, University School of Foreign Service a vehicle for opposition political and culture. Yet failing to establish a parties to participate, find their voice, general set of benchmarks would leave and hold leaders accountable. us without a coherent message at a For the same reason, the rights time when the identities of those who of individuals, and those of groups speak up and those who remain silent to which individuals belong, must may be remembered for generations. be protected in any democracy, Without exception, U.S. and regardless of who prevails at the polls. Allied policy should be to support

19 Fostering sources of growth across the Atlantic

In an increasingly globalized world that is facing formidable issues around public debt, the reform of the regulatory financial framework and free trade, U.S. policymakers could be forgiven for neglecting their relationship with Europe. Although the European Union is in urgent need of addressing fundamental economic and social reforms, there is still enormous scope for transatlantic economic cooperation that would pay dividends for both sides

First, policymakers are still Third, international economic stimulating economic activity via diplomacy is at a stalemate. Rather monetary instruments while facing than embracing globalization via the inevitable fiscal adjustment. better management and institution- Demand-stimulating fiscal policies building, global governance went are hard to pursue if capital markets astray. There is still no agreement are no longer willing to fund such on the Doha Round. Rather, there programs at acceptable costs. are outbursts of protectionism, Doubts about the sustainability mostly in large emerging markets of public debt are aggravating but also in some industrialized policymaking even further in some countries. Preferential liberalization nations. In the eurozone, the issue of occurs but has too little impact. interaction between sovereign debt By Josef Ackermann and bank solvency has not yet been Policies on climate change fully resolved. In the U.S., a healthy There is still no agreement on the recovery of real estate has yet to international architecture for limiting n times such as these, amid happen, and the return to high levels climate change or on measures to severe economic crisis in of employment is still way ahead. create a well-designed global carbon many European countries Second, financial regulators market. Policies are improving at and persistent troubles in are completing the G20 agenda the margins but have not delivered the United States, it may on improving the regulatory the clear, predictable, and long-term seem misplaced to search framework for global financial political policy frameworks that for Atlantic sources of growth. markets. Increasing the safety would propel private investment into IIn many nations, a succession of of the industry and resilience to sustainable activities. In addition, crises has had to be contained, from shocks by strengthening capital there is too little deregulation of real estate to banking, from private and liquidity provisions in investment barriers. Service markets debt to public debt, from contractions financial institutions, improving remain highly protected outside in output and employment to social the infrastructure of financial the Atlantic area. Raw materials, unrest. This is more a time for crisis markets, and setting the right energy production and security- managers than for visionaries. incentives for internal structures related industrial activity face Sustained efforts to reopen the of financial institutions are higher barriers to FDI, too. State Atlantic sources of growth have yet occupying policymakers in both ownership of industrial assets and to blossom. This is understandable. the U.S. and the European Union. economic infrastructure remains

20 high in many countries, and proper Traditional American manufacturing regulatory frameworks for potentially has faced a difficult environment dynamic services are in short supply. On international monetary issues, steps forward are gradual, and shortcomings are evident in many countries. In short, we are leaving too many opportunities for potential gains unused on the table. In Europe, the EU has failed to deliver on its goal of establishing a dynamic economic region. Key measures to strengthen the common market and innovation have failed to meet expectations. True, there has been progress on raising labor force participation rates and education levels, but there has been too little improvement in productivity, real incomes and living standards. The same is largely public and private investment in spending growth—and possibly even true in the U.S., despite the global the skill levels of the population, cuts in spending in absolute terms success stories of U.S. brands in in physical infrastructure (most —but also changes in taxation. modern telecommunications, prominently in transportation and In most European countries, software and media. energy), and in R&D. There is a structural reforms in labor and There is no easy fix. And related need to upgrade the industrial product markets and in social-security yet, re-invigorating growth is a skills of Americans, both workers systems are firmly embedded. This challenge that has to be urgently and entrepreneurs, in modern holds true for fiscal adjustment addressed since distributional and traditional fields, to increase as well. Though headline deficit conflicts are heating up again and investment in those activities, and to numbers still seem high, strong complicating things further. boost the competitiveness of the U.S. improvements in structural deficit industrial sector internationally. reductions are under way. But there is What options do we have? Managing the demographic still a shortage of initiatives devoted First, national reforms are a political transition will require a “coming to fostering education, innovation, prerequisite for European and global to terms” with public finance. The and productivity improvements progress. While weak nations do U.S. should and will continue to through better market regulations. not manage to achieve fruitful maintain a global role well into the collaboration internationally, 21st century by providing security A larger role for the EU recovering nations may do so. On to a variety of partners around the In revamping efficiency and this score, there is a broad challenge world. But it will only be capable of productivity through better to cope with in the United States. doing so if it can properly finance regulation, the EU has to play Since the mid-1980s, limits to U.S. public spending, substantially a larger role. Governments are economic and social development improve the sustainability of its starting to use the EU for promoting have consistently been stronger social-security system, health care comprehensive reforms in areas on the political side than on the in particular, and reform its system of the single European market economic side. Clearly, the challenge of personal and corporate taxation where rules are out of sync with is to find a long-term strategy for with a view to better balancing necessities. There is plenty of room reinvigorating U.S. sources of growth efficiency, distributional effects for improvement, from electricity while managing the imponderables and revenue levels. The U.S. needs regulation to the digital market and in of demographic transition. comprehensive and growth-friendly measures to improve labor mobility. Re-invigorating U.S. growth fiscal adjustment on a long-term Meanwhile, too little attention will require consistently higher trajectory. This will require cuts in is still being paid to promoting Future growth may lie in emerging activities such as nanotechnology green growth through efficient enhanced coordination in R&D results are well worth the effort. means such as taxing emissions initiatives with regard to emerging At present, we are witnessing a directly or indirectly via trading economic activities such as e-mobility breakthrough on fiscal adjustment schemes. A certain amount of scope and nanotechnology, and for joint and structural reform in Europe. remains for marshaling EU budget regulatory approaches to new Yet there are still shortcomings resources towards those goals. business challenges such as data use with regard to more comprehensive In such an environment, the U.S. and protection and other issues. reforms. In the U.S., output and and the EU should work together to financial stabilization are progressing embrace a number of global initiatives: Realigning the reform agenda well, but fiscal adjustment and First, there is a need to move There is also further scope for structural reforms are lagging forward on opening up trade in mitigating global climate change both behind. In the coming years, a services—at best globally, but at by addressing the unresolved issues in better balance should emerge in least across the Atlantic. The first- the international climate protection both of these two large regions. This best option would, of course, be a architecture as well as by adopting would certainly have beneficial reopening and successful conclusion comprehensive and mutually consequences for the rest of the world. of the Doha Round negotiations at compatible domestic initiatives. Achieving such an outcome is a the WTO. The second-best option Finally, there is a need to bring truly grand project, both for you as is a broad and comprehensive the G20 financial regulatory agenda President of the United States and agreement between the EU and to a positive conclusion by aligning for the European Union. Call it the the U.S. on all bilateral trade, EU and U.S. implementation of Atlantic Sources of Growth. investment, and related standards. key parts of the rulebook to such There is additional scope for a degree that regulatory arbitrage Josef Ackermann is chairman of the moving forward on issues such or a fragmentation of transatlantic Management Board and of the Group as opening-up government financial markets are prevented. Executive Committee of Deutsche procurement markets to international Adopting such a comprehensive Bank. He joined the Board of Managing competition, liberalizing key service agenda based on sound domestic Directors of Deutsche Bank in 1996, markets (particularly for business, macroeconomic policies, forward- where he was responsible for the financial, telecommunication and looking microeconomic and investment banking division. He is transportation services), and going foreign economic policies, and also a member of the Atlantic Council beyond the EU-U.S. framework by appropriate regulatory pathways International Advisory Board. inviting interested partners to join in. into modern markets poses major There is also plenty of scope for challenges. But the potential Relations with Pakistan: forging a new partnership

As we approach the end of active military operations in Afghanistan, it will be tempting to cut back military and civil engagement in the conflict zone, which includes both Afghanistan and Pakistan. But a diminution of civil and economic ties with both countries would be a mistake. This memo argues in favor of strengthening our ties with Pakistan to encourage improved stability within its borders and provide continued support to our Afghan allies

in civil society, as illustrated by operate freely inside the country. the emergence of active media and Public denunciation of the drone social networks combined with an campaign by government and civil increasingly assertive judiciary. society actors fuels antipathy toward Although elements in the intelligence the U.S. Pakistan’s Parliament has services still occasionally attempt to echoed these fears in its calls for control the media and political actors, protection of national sovereignty the military has neither the will nor and for greater controls and taxes the capacity to mount a coup, nor the on coalition supplies going through ability to effect major political change. Pakistan to Afghanistan. Public opinion in the U.S. and In such an environment, cutting views on the Hill are heavily biased our losses and walking away from By Shuja Nawaz against a cordial relationship with the region, and specifically from Pakistan, reflecting years of mistrust Pakistan, might seem an obvious of Pakistan’s role in the Afghan war. —and popular—choice. But such Pakistan’s two-handed approach a decision would entail significant akistan is at a precarious to the Afghan Taliban, taking U.S. longer-term costs. Not only will the point in its faltering assistance and payments for military withdrawal of forces from Afghanistan return to democratic operations in the borderlands require ground and air lines of order, after yet another while allowing selected groups of communications via Pakistan, our extended period of Afghans free movement to and Afghan allies will continue to require military-dominated rule from Afghanistan, hinders the supplies and air support via Pakistan. that has left its bureaucratic system Administration’s ability to provide Cutbacks in air and military support Pand civilian institutions stunted. Its more military aid to Pakistan. On would be disruptive at a critical stage polity and society have undergone the Pakistani side, suspicions that when their security forces are being rapid change, with countervailing the U.S. has shifted its stance away prepared to take on more ground forces emerging to counter the from Pakistan and towards India, operations. Without air support, military’s overwhelming power. with the ultimate goal of defanging those might be jeopardized and Though political parties remain Pakistan’s nuclear weapons capability, Afghan morale would plummet. weak and divided, the democratic make it nearly impossible for U.S. What happens inside Pakistan impulse appears to be taking hold officials and aid representatives to affects its immediate neighbors—

23 Helping Pakistan to help itself should be the key to this new relationship

India, China, Iran, and shift toward India, if this were to relative to emerging regional crises Afghanistan—instantly, and more accompany U.S. withdrawal, would or changing global policies. distant countries over time. A strengthen conspiracy theorists precipitous U.S. withdrawal could inside Pakistan in their belief What needs to be done? lead to heightened conflict in the that the U.S. always intended to Firstly, the U.S. should expand its borderlands of Pakistan, allowing compromise and weaken Pakistan. approach to Pakistan by working the Pakistani Taliban and their The U.S. has been and remains with regional partners, many of Punjabi allies to use the Federally the largest supplier of assistance to them Pakistan‘s friends, to ensure Administered Tribal Areas as well Pakistan, both civil and military, a stable Pakistan and a steady U.S.- as contiguous Afghan territory and via the International Financial Pakistan relationship. Building on as sanctuaries in fighting the Institutions (the International the Pew Global Attitudes Poll results Pakistani army and state. It would Monetary Fund, World Bank and that regularly indicate that six out give extremist elements of 10 Pakistanis polled inside Pakistan greater want better relations with voice and control over The U.S. has an opportunity now the U.S., we can create public discourse in civil to move toward a longer-term a steady, longer-term society and the military. relationship that is not Latent anti-U.S. relationship with Pakistan tied to short-term goals. sentiment in the military, Helping Pakistan to help especially among younger itself should be the key to officers and perhaps the soldiery, is the Asian Development Bank, in this new relationship. If Pakistan’s indicated by the fact that some of particular). But our aid program has people and government want to the attacks against General Pervez been sporadic and tied to regional improve governance and provide Musharraf and military headquarters or global aims in a manner that has jobs and education to their growing included lower-level personnel led Pakistanis to become wary of U.S. population of nearly 200 million, then from both the army and air force. ties, understandably regarding their the U.S. should make that its aim too. Large portions of public opinion relations with China more kindly. Combining our resources with in Pakistan view the U.S. civil The U.S. has an opportunity now those of the United Kingdom in the nuclear deal with India as an anti- to change that dialogue and move education sector, as has been done Pakistan move, and the absence of toward a longer-term relationship recently, offers a good model. Working any attempt to engage Pakistan in with Pakistan as the center of gravity with China in building infrastructure a similar dialogue as proof of an of U.S. engagement in the region, and the energy sector could bolster entrenched anti-Pakistan bias. A rather than as an after-thought Pakistan’s ability to get out of its

24 The U.S. Congress may be able to assist the work of the Pakistani Parliament economic hole. Open borders with An Aid to Pakistan Club may military. Once the military recedes India for trade and the movement of be one way of doing this. The U.S. into the background, relinquishing people would help to remove decades Congress may be able to help the its role as default drafter of policy on of fear and hostility on Pakistan’s Pakistani Parliament, via direct India, nuclear policy, Afghanistan, eastern border. Our new strategic parliamentary contacts, to allow and U.S. relations, the U.S. could relationship with India enables us Pakistani parliamentarians better commit, under an agreed military to use moral suasion on India to understand economic issues and the aid program, to improve Pakistan’s show “strategic altruism” and give value of a reform agenda that has ability to combat insurgency and Pakistan the breathing room for its been crafted inside Pakistan but still defend its borders with a more mobile economic and political development. lacks support from its politicians. and better-equipped army and an A moratorium on active Indian and Congress could thus come to be seen improved and integrated police force. U.S. intelligence operations inside as a partner of Pakistan, rather than Pakistan is both a strategic ally and Pakistan would most likely win the hectoring controller of the U.S. aid a potential bulwark of stability. If its Pakistan’s trust in this endeavor. purse that it is often perceived to be. people and government are prepared Secondly, the U.S. should review to align and commit themselves to and rebalance its policies on aid to A greater role for civil society fulfilling that potential, the United Pakistan. Specifically, U.S. assistance to Thirdly, U.S. aid and a strengthened States must be willing to help them. Pakistan can gain from the multiplier relationship with Pakistan should effect of aid from IFIs that Pakistan be made contingent on actions by Shuja Nawaz is director of the South sorely needs and is more willing to Pakistan to allow civil society and Asia Center at the Atlantic Council. He is accept. U.S. support in the boards of business to play a greater role in the author of Crossed Swords: Pakistan, these institutions can help Pakistan setting it on the path to economic Its Army, and the Wars Within to garner the resources it needs to and political stability. The civilian restructure its economy. The U.S. can government needs to show a also help in persuading Pakistan’s desire and ability to re-establish its government and bureaucracy to control over government, instead of move faster on the reform path. outsourcing decision-making to the

25 Enlightened engagement: U.S.-China relations

An upcoming change of top political leadership in China represents a once-in-a-decade opportunity for political leaders, think tanks and learned institutions in the U.S. to engage with China’s leaders and institutions to exert a positive influence on its peaceful development and strengthen mutual trust between the two countries

is therefore a huge challenge, but forums between U.S. and Chinese one that also presents an enormous twin cities and states. Focusing on opportunity for the United States. local dynamics and opportunities will Over the years, China has been stimulate Chinese interest for inward variously labeled as America’s direct investments into the U.S., and “partner,” “ally," “competitor,” therefore support job creation. “adversary,” and so on. The truth is that, at different times and depending Change and new challenges on issues, all of these descriptions China itself is in transition. After 30 were correct. The conventional years of strong economic growth, a wisdom is that U.S.-China relations large middle class of more than 300 “can never be too good, or too bad.” million has emerged, bringing with In my view, there is now a unique it many social and infrastructural By Victor L.L. Chu window for the U.S. and China to challenges. The country has been progress beyond the status quo. evolving from an old-fashioned, Economically, the U.S. and China centrally planned economy into t was Napoleon who said are already interdependent. The a robust, competitive market in 1803: “Let that sleeping two countries are the world’s largest economy, but with that has come giant sleep, for when he mutual trading partners, and China a growing disparity between the wakes up, he will shake the is the largest holder of U.S. debt haves and the have-nots. China world.” Napoleon was, of instruments. On major global issues has also been in transition from a course, referring to China. including security, nuclear non- governance system based on human True enough, the rise (more correctly proliferation, environment and the relationships (‘the rule of man’) Ithe renaissance) of China resulting reform of the international financial towards a system based on rules from its remarkable, open-door architecture, the U.S. and China have and regulations (‘the rule of law’). economic structural reforms over substantial common interests. It is The challenges to China from the last thirty years has shaken the important for the world’s number these transitional changes, in almost world. The U.S.-China relationship is one and number two economies to every aspect of daily life, have been probably the most important bilateral deepen their mutual understanding phenomenal. As most of these relationship in the 21st century. It and strengthen mutual trust. The challenges are domestic, China’s is, however, a very broad, complex current mechanism of the ‘U.S.-China overriding priority going forward and multifaceted relationship. Strategic and Economic Dialogue’ can is to maintain social stability. Managing a rising China effectively be further strengthened by regional To achieve that, China has the desire

26 Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao has made boosting consumer demand a priority in an attempt to wean the country off its reliance on external demand and foreign capital

27 the ability to deal with differences with mutual respect and trust. With this in mind, the following future steps should be considered: • Extension of the current top-level U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue to regional forums by encouraging, for example, twin (sister) states and cities to discuss and promote investments, technology cooperation, educational and cultural exchanges. • Strong support for U.S. think tanks and learned institutions (such as the Atlantic Council) to establish China’s strong economic growth has or expand their presence in China. created a middle class of 300 million • Strong support for the Chinese language to be widely taught (and the need) to build a strong and long-term relationships with these in U.S. schools at all levels. stable relationship with the U.S., incoming Chinese leaders, who • Strong support for expanding its most important trading partner could be in office for the next ten people-to-people exchange and counterpart. Externally, China years. Recent events in China suggest by, for example, relaxing visa has also been in transition from its that after thirty years of extensive requirements and expanding historical role as a passive observer to economic reforms, political reforms visa offices in China. become, hopefully, a more active and may have to follow to sustain Incoming Chinese leaders are likely constructive player in world affairs. China’s desired peaceful rise and to be very interested and willing to U.S. leaders, as well as think tanks and development. As friends, U.S. political increase and strengthen engagement learned institutions, should position leaders will be able to provide advice with their U.S. counterparts. For the themselves as enlightened friends and support, and therefore a positive U.S. and China alike, this special to support China’s growing role in influence on the direction in which window of opportunity to build an global affairs. China’s willingness to China may progress. Deeper and enlightened and sustainable play a responsible global role is very more active engagement with new bilateral relationship in their positive for U.S.-China relations. Chinese leaders should be a strategic mutual interest, as well as in priority for your administration. the interests of global stability, Opportunity for engagement Hopefully, we can now move peace and prosperity, must We will soon know the outcome of away from often unhelpful not be allowed to pass. China’s once-in-a-decade change domestic political rhetoric in the of top political leadership. The new categorization of relations with Victor L.L. Chu is chairman of First line-up is likely to include some of China. If the United States is perceived Eastern Investment Group and a member the most well-educated and proven as a friend, China is more likely of the Atlantic Council International leaders in modern China. They are to be receptive to U.S. advice and Advisory Board. Chu has served as likely to have a better understanding guidance in the management of its director and council member of the of the U.S. than their predecessors social and strategic changes. If the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, member of because either they have spent time U.S. is not perceived as a friend, the Hong Kong Takeovers and Mergers in the U.S. themselves, or they have China’s rise will continue anyway, Panel, Advisory Committee member of children who have been educated at without the benefit of U.S. input. the Securities and Futures Commission, top U.S. universities. They are also In the longer term, the true nature and part-time member of Hong Kong part of a generation which is at ease of U.S.-China relations should be Government’s Central Policy Unit with U.S. culture and thinking. one of enlightened engagement. This is a very good time for This means a genuine effort to focus U.S. leaders to reach out and build on common interests as well as

28 Advancing U.S. nonproliferation goals globally

The world has seen enormous change since the end of the Cold War and the U.S. administration has been working tirelessly to build security for the 21st century. To continue this work, there are a number of key issues facing the winner of the 2012 presidential election

builds a security commons for the 21st Document. This document contains century. Major accomplishments such agreed-upon steps that, if acted on, as the New START Treaty, a successful will strengthen the nonproliferation Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty regime and lead to a successful 2015 (NPT) Review Conference in 2010, and NPT Review Conference. Since this the Nuclear Posture Review moved us document’s publication, the United in the right direction of adapting U.S. States has a number of success stories and international security policies it must build upon and communicate and global security institutions to the states party to the Treaty. The and regimes to 21st century threats. successful entry into force of the New Yet, there is still much to do. In this START Treaty, the productive and memo, I outline key issues facing ongoing discussions with the other P5 the next President of the United states on verification, transparency, By Ellen Tauscher States and offer recommendations and confidence-building, the second on how to approach them. Nuclear Security Summit in Seoul this year, and the provision of more n a speech in September of 2015 NPT Review Conference than $18 million—benefitting nearly last year, former Secretary of The cornerstone of the global nuclear 120 NPT parties—to the President’s State George P. Shultz spoke nonproliferation regime is the NPT, IAEA Peaceful Uses Initiative are but about the great geopolitical which establishes that states with four examples of U.S. commitment to changes occurring since nuclear weapons will work to get rid strengthening the nonproliferation the end of the Cold War. of them and states without nuclear regime. By showing concrete U.S. Much like at the end of World War II, weapons will not get them. Every five commitment to the NPT bargain, Ihe suggested the United States must years, NPT states-parties gather to the United States is more likely to lead an effort to “create the right assess implementation of the treaty. encounter a welcoming audience kind of global commons for this new Despite the doom and gloom attitude at the next Review Conference. world.” Implicit in this suggestion is among some about the treaty’s As consensus-building among a recognition that global economic long-term viability heading into the the states party is essential for the and security relationships will be 2010 Review Conference, it achieved continued success of the NPT regime, different from those in the Cold War. success. As a result, the U.S. Delegation a welcoming audience among the The next President of the United States to the 2015 Conference will benefit nonnuclear-weapons states is vital. should continue with the work of this from a roadmap, or “action plan:” the administration to ensure the country 2010 NPT Review Conference Final

29 With Russia and the U.S. accounting for more than 90% of nuclear weapons, it is in their interest to reduce and eradicate them

Iran necessary to ensure Iran understands States and its allies in the region The Iranian nuclear program is one that negotiations cannot be abused should continue to make clear to of the most serious security issues in order to stall for time and reduce North Korea that further provocations facing the United States and the pressure. While the President should are not in its interests and will not world. As President Obama said in never take the military option off be tolerated. The United States will March at the second Nuclear Security the table, a negotiated settlement is need to work with our allies and Summit, there is time to solve the in the utmost interest of all parties. partners to assure that responses issue diplomatically, but the window to any North Korea provocations is shrinking. The current policy North Korea are measured and appropriate. of unprecedented sanctions and North Korea’s backtracking on its increasing international isolation agreement to halt enrichment, The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty while seeking a negotiated settlement nuclear tests, and missile tests The recently released nonpartisan is the right one. This policy makes demonstrates the difficulty in dealing National Academy of Sciences study clear to Iranian leaders what they with the North Korean regime. The on the Comprehensive Test Ban must do to end their isolation: uphold subsequent failed missile launch is Treaty (CTBT) further reinforces their nonproliferation obligations but one example of a long history of what many already knew: the Treaty and convince the world their nuclear provocations. The Administration’s is indeed effectively verifiable and program is for peaceful purposes. dual-track approach of pressure there is a solid case for ratification. The status of current negotiations and receptiveness to any serious The report also confirmed the ability signals that the sanctions are affecting engagement with North Korea is of the United States to ensure a safe, the Iranian government’s calculus indeed the right way forward. In secure, and credible nuclear deterrent with regard to the nuclear program. addition, the United States must without the need for testing. The The United States, working with its continue to press China, North Stockpile Stewardship Program, as P5+1 partners, should respond only Korea’s only ally, to encourage North the study notes, has increased our to Iran’s offers if they are sincere Korea to return to seriously engage knowledge of the nuclear stockpile and alleviate the international in negotiations, halt its nuclear and beyond what was gained from testing. community’s concerns. Engagement, missile activities, and refrain from The CTBT will increase the difficulties particularly with Russia and China, is further provocations. The United and political costs to countries

30 While a military option should never be off the table, a negotiated settlement would be preferable for all parties attempting to build and test nuclear eventually eliminate, tactical nuclear United States are upheld. However, weapons. The President-Elect should weapons. The next President should more must be done. The risks posed continue to educate Senators and continue to advance the policies set by nuclear, as well as chemical, their staff—as well as the general forth in the 2010 Nuclear Posture biological, and conventional weapons public—about the national security Review, including strengthening proliferation, are still too great. It will benefits of the CTBT and when deterrence of potential regional take hard work and determination ready, seek the Senate’s advice and adversaries, strategic stability vis-à-vis to fashion a new security commons. consent to ratification of the treaty. Russia, and assurance of our allies and Most importantly, achievement of partners. Recognizing that we have that goal requires leadership from the Next Steps in Arms Control more nuclear weapons than we need, next President of the United States. As the United States and Russia the United States in consultations account for over 90 per cent of all with its allies in NATO, should seek Ellen Tauscher is co-vice chair-designate nuclear weapons in the world, the to negotiate with Russia on all types of the Atlantic Council's Brent Scowcroft United States should continue to focus of nuclear weapons: deployed, non- Center on International Security and on bilateral arms control efforts with deployed, nonstrategic, and strategic. special envoy for strategic stability and Russia. In the resolution of ratification missile defense at the U.S. Department of the New START Treaty, the Senate Conclusion of State. She most recently served as noted the large disparity in the sizes The diffuse and global challenges under secretary of state for arms control of each side’s nonstrategic nuclear facing the United States in the 21st and international security affairs. The arsenal and its interest in reducing century require engagement with a views expressed in this article are those the Russian stockpile, currently not broad range of international actors on of the author, and do not necessarily accounted for under any treaty. These many fronts. No longer can we revert reflect those of the U.S. Department weapons are most vulnerable to theft. to Cold War thinking on security of State or the U.S. government. And their use in any conflict opens the issues. The current Administration has door to strategic nuclear escalation. successfully updated and broadened Therefore, it is in the interest of the the tools at our disposal to ensure that United States and Russia to reduce, and the national security interests of the

31 Catalyzing democratic progress in the Middle East

The new political landscape of the greater Middle East has produced significant opportunities for democratic change, but obstacles and uncertainties remain. To help catalyze progress, the United States must work with others to create a regional geopolitical environment conducive to democratization, craft tailored strategies to help countries in transition, and encourage friendly authoritarian governments to start down the path toward democracy. Democracy will not come quickly to this region. But a long-term and sustainable strategy is needed

• The influence of the United • China and India are more States has diminished. Leaders in dependent than ever on energy the region question whether we from the region and will therefore can wield our power effectively. play greater political and military Budget constraints impose further roles. Russia has become a limits. But the U.S. remains an more active player as well. important outside player. • A sectarian political struggle • A competition to shape the is emerging across Syria and future of the region is emerging Iraq and could spread to between Iran and Turkey, with Lebanon and the Gulf. the Arab states playing the role • A cohort in the region’s rising of an important but lesser generation is searching for ways to power center. integrate liberalism and modernity By Zalmay Khalilzad • The Arab League is playing with their religion and culture. a more ambitious role as a regional organization to Goals and policies he unfinished legitimize or catalyze collective The U.S. should focus on these goals: political transitions action in a net positive way. • preventing extremists and terrorists of the Arab Spring • Iran is approaching a latent from hijacking political transitions; continue to unfold. or threshold nuclear weapons • addressing the multiple challenges The outcomes capability. If it crosses this posed by a regionally assertive Iran; are uncertain. line, this will destabilize the • forging a partnership with Turkey; Democracy activists across the region. Use of force can degrade • achieving a stable two- Tregion have experienced as Iran’s capability but could have state solution in the Israel- many setbacks as successes. second- and third-order effects. Palestinian conflict; Several new factors will • Israel and some Arab states are • assisting democratic consolidation in affect the extent to which the pulling closer together as a result transition states while encouraging current political openings and of Iran’s assertiveness, while the political openings by friendly turbulence in the Middle East successes of Islamist parties in authoritarian governments; and lead to an expansion of elections are pushing Israel and • this objective should be pursued by democracy across the region. other Arab states further apart. a long-term effort and in response

32 Voting in Egypt, January 2012. The political transitions of the Arab Spring continue to unfold and its outcomes are still uncertain

33 Protests against Iran’s nuclear activities. The country poses multiple challenges to the needs of the region. Iran’s internal opposition not only Iran down to size. We should seek Preventing extremists and blocks Iranian society from achieving to strengthen the Syrian opposition terrorists from hijacking political a democratic breakthrough but also by expanding the participation openings: Al Qaeda and associate prevents democratic movements of Kurds and Christians and by terrorist groups pose a continuing, sweeping the region from harnessing reaching out to Alawites. They should if somewhat diminished, threat the influence of Persian civilization. be encouraged to develop a liberal to the U.S. homeland and to allies The U.S. and its partners must democratic vision and program and friends. In terms of targeting work on all of these challenges. for the country, which would give leaders and networks, the U.S. has First, the U.S. and its partners confidence to all Syrian communities sharpened its counter-terrorist must thwart Iran’s geopolitical about their place in a post-Assad instruments substantially. This strategy. Tehran has sought to exploit Syria. After such an agreement, should be sustained. However, the sectarianism and has supported the U.S. and its partners should new danger is that these groups may political openings as a tactical device consider pressing for a ceasefire, increasingly focus on opportunities to advance its national interests. It creating humanitarian corridors, to advance their political agenda welcomed the toppling of Saddam and establishing safe havens to amid the turbulence in Middle East. and elections in Iraq which brought bolster the position of the opposition. The U.S. should be willing to support Shia parties to power. It wishes to see This policy could be enabled with local political forces to prevent political openings in Bahrain and partnerships involving Turkey, Iraq, extremists and terrorists from seizing other Gulf states with significant Shia Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states, the or winning power in states that could communities. Yet it is helping Assad, Arab League, and possibly even Israel. serve as sanctuaries. How to manage an Alawite leader, suppress the Syrian Iraq is another focal point in the Islamism is another key issue. Testing opposition and supports Hezbollah’s regional struggle against Iran. It Islamic parties' acceptance of open use of militias and violence to would become the main fault line and fair elections is critical. If they intimidate other groups in Lebanon. if and when Assad falls. Tehran has are not willing to compete within sought to exploit the departure of a system of democratic elections, Liberal vision for Syria U.S. forces to increase its influence, then they will prove to be an Syria is the fulcrum of Iranian principally through the actions of obstacle to real political transition. strategy. The fall of Assad would proxies and allies. This has produced Addressing the challenges limit Iran’s reach into the Arab dangerous tensions that threaten posed by Iran: Tehran’s geopolitical world, diminish its ability to support Iraq’s democracy. Together with strategy and pursuit of nuclear Hezbollah, and curtail its capacity to Turkey and other friends, the U.S. weapons create a regional context shape the Israel-Palestinian conflict. should engage Iraq’s leaders to unfavorable to democratic progress. The U.S. and its partners should seek encourage them to check Iranian The regime’s violent suppression of to use the conflict in Syria to cut inroads. We and our partners should

34 also strengthen ties with the Kurds in uncertain. Iran could undermine likely to open up political space for Iraq, as well as leaders of other Iraqi democratization by inciting their societies. Further democratic communities, to prevent tensions from protracted and unpredictable progress will depend on convincing escalating into a sectarian civil war. conflict across the region, unleashing the Arab states of the credibility of sectarian militias and terrorists, and our guarantees and deterrent. The challenge in the Gulf seeking to destabilize other states. In Third, the U.S. should work with In the Gulf states, where Sunni fragile countries, greater disorder will the Iranian opposition to achieve leaders have discriminated against magnify the comparative advantages a democratic breakthrough. The Shia communities, the U.S. should of extremist groups. Leaders of stable potential for such change already quietly engage with Shia leaders authoritarian states are likely to clamp exists. The Green Movement through intelligence channels and down on dissent. Alternatively, if shook the regime to its core in nongovernmental groups. We should military strikes revive the opposition demonstrations in 2009. The U.S. warn against allowing Iran to build movement within Iran, Tehran should increase its engagement with its influence, which will reinforce will need to focus its attention on the Iranian opposition and offer the the unwillingness of Sunni leaders problems at home. It is conceivable assistance needed to challenge the to consider reform and which Iran that the combination of geopolitical regime’s hold on power, including will exploit to create proxies that setbacks, political isolation, economic supportive political statements, will be responsive to Tehran rather sanctions, and military strikes could foreign broadcasts, communications than to their own communities. We mobilize an opposition sufficiently technology, and financing. It should should also indicate that the U.S. strong to force a change in Tehran’s find ways to signal to elements of supports stable political change that policies or even to challenge the the Iranian security services that gives the Shia communities a voice. regime’s hold on power. Planning for their interests lie in supporting In Bahrain, a more robust dialogue is attacks should include contingency change. It should create an umbrella needed to ensure key concerns about plans to exploit any internal unrest organization to unite internal and democratic governance are discussed. that may arise and to respond to external opposition groups and work Second, the U.S. must preclude other second-order effects. with them to develop an economic nuclear intimidation by Iran. The and institution-building program U.S. should remain open for a democratic Iran. to a deal preventing Forging a partnership Iran from developing The U.S. should seek to work with Turkey: Turkey has nuclear weapons. acquired growing influence Yet the experience of with Turkey to shape the region’s in light of its democratic the Bush and Obama democratic trajectory, including progress and economic administrations so far the evolution of Islamist parties success. Many groups indicates that engagement that share the governing and sanctions alone AKP’s roots in political are unlikely to induce Iran to limit Islam are looking to Turkey as a its nuclear ambitious. Iran may be Guarantees and deterrence model. As a result, the U.S. should similar to states such as Pakistan and The other option is to acquiesce seek to work with Turkey to shape North Korea that persisted with their to the emergence of a latent or the region’s democratic trajectory, weapons programs despite high and threshold nuclear capability and use including the evolution of Islamist growing costs. If increased financial security guarantees and deterrence parties. This could be a vehicle for sanctions do not have a decisive to prevent Iranian nuclear blackmail influencing these parties to respect impact, a new administration will against partners and friends. This the rights of religious minorities have to make a difficult choice. might avoid a destabilizing regional and other values. Working with One option is a military strike conflict. Yet there is no guarantee Turkey is not without challenges, to degrade and disrupt Iranian that containment would stop particularly if the AKP continues enrichment and weapons programs. an Israeli strike or prevent a new to take heavy-handed actions Military action can set back Iran’s wave of proliferation across the against its own political opponents programs a number of years, but the region. Arab regimes that see Iran’s and to be reluctant to address the potential effects on the prospects influence on the rise will be less aspirations of the country’s Kurdish for democracy in the region are minority. U.S. engagement will also

35 have to be effected in a way that Turkey has made progress in terms of respects Israeli security concerns democracy and economic success and Arab sensitivities about the role of Turkey in the Arab world. Achieving a stable two- state settlement of the Israel- Palestinian conflict: Because the Arab Spring has unleashed populist political forces, it is vital to pursue actively an Israeli- Palestinian settlement. Otherwise, the risk exists that extremists and demagogues will seize this issue to propel themselves to power. The framework for a settlement—a two- state solution with minor territorial adjustments and repatriation of In countries with oil revenues, the to the current order and that we wish refugees to the Palestinian state—is costs of needed programs should to see more equitable political and well established. The challenge is be covered by internal revenues. economic systems in their countries. to develop the leverage needed to For resource-poor countries, the In addition, the U.S. and its create a political consensus within U.S. should work with partners to partners should develop an outreach each of the parties in favor of organize the equivalent of a Marshall and mobilization program focused concessions and compromises. Plan for the Middle East. Like the on the young people of the region. Assisting democratic U.S. effort in Europe, it should They constitute the dominant consolidation and transitions: be designed as a partnership that demographic cohort and on the The political transitions of the implements programs through local whole are supportive of democracy Arab Spring will unfold over a governments and firms. It should and economic opportunity. This generation. We have to be ready to be funded not only by the U.S. effort should fund youth-oriented play the long game of supporting but also by international financial civic society groups wherever this moderate and democratic forces institutions, wealthier Arab states, is feasible, with particular focus if we wish to help them achieve and East Asian governments. on the cultural, intellectual, and a positive historical outcome. In countries governed by friendly entrepreneurial spheres. These authoritarian governments, the groups should also be connected The road to democracy U.S. should quietly engage in into a transnational network In countries where initial transitions discussions to plan gradual political that can exchange ideas and have taken place—specifically, transitions—a step-by-step evolution support each other’s efforts. Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, and Yemen— of political systems that avoids violent the focus should be on helping discontinuous change, that carries Implementation local leaders come together over current leadership elites into To implement these policies, the around a sound state-building and important roles in the new order, and U.S. must enhance its capabilities economic development program. that enables disenfranchised groups to to catalyze positive political Tunisia, in particular, is a crucial have a voice in their own future. The dynamics in other societies, build test of case of a true democratic U.S. should help current rulers start institutions, and foster economic transition taking place that could the process of moving towards a new, growth after political transitions. serve as a beach-head for democracy stable order, much as many European It must also support independent in North Africa. This is all the more countries evolved from absolute to media and civil society organizations. important given the recent crackdown constitutional monarchies over an The last ten years in Afghanistan in Egypt on NGOs—especially extended period of time. At the same and Iraq exposed shortcomings in U.S.-based democracy promotion time, the U.S. should build bridges U.S. capabilities. This should include organizations. Much of the U.S. with all other actors in the societies the following steps: role should involve quiet advice, of these countries, ensuring that they mediation, and technical assistance. understand that we are not wedded

36 An Iraqi school. Dangerous tensions are threatening the country’s democracy

• Reform the State Department’s sized enterprises, to overhaul the rule of law (prosecutors, recruiting, training, and property rights systems in order courts, and corrections). promotion systems to create an to grant formal rights to those • Strengthen USAID’s capacity to expeditionary capability that operating in the informal sector, work with local leaders to reform enables the U.S. to assist local and to break down the structures and modernize educational political groups in mobilizing of “crony capitalism” with a systems, ensuring that reason for democratic change, foster minimum of economic dislocation. and critical thinking are the power sharing and constitutional • Reexamine U.S. political aversion foundations of instruction and arrangements after transitions, to providing U.S. funding to that systems give young people and develop inclusive visions support operational activities of skills needed in the market. and programs for institution- political parties. The U.S. should • Revive USIA or create a similar building across critical security, provide support to those liberal organization to sponsor initiatives development and service sectors. parties that welcome such funding. to foster liberal values, increase • Strengthen the State Department’s • We need to be able to level people-to-people contacts, and Bureau of Conflict and Stabilization the playing field for moderate transfer knowledge needed Operations to the point where it and democratic parties. to help local leaders build can immediately staff one major • Strengthen the CIA’s capabilities effective institutions. stabilization operation, with the to collect local political ability to support staff rotations. intelligence and to engage in covert Zalmay Khalilzad is president of A priority should be to develop action, influence operations, Gryphon Partners, a consulting firm an analytical framework for its and other political actions to focused on the Middle East and Central operations that enables the U.S. to support political actors and Asia. From 2007 to 2009, he served as U.S. assess the conditions and needs of a groups in foreign societies. permanent representative to the United transition state and that prioritizes • Strengthen capabilities in the Nations. Prior to that, he served as U.S. and sequences the activities and State Department and Defense ambassador to Iraq (2005-07) and as U.S. programs that the local government Department to assist security sector ambassador to Afghanistan (2003-05) should undertake. Within the reform. The U.S. should develop Bureau of Conflict and Stabilization a seamless structure to help local Operations should be a capability leaders prevent the entrenchment to help local leaders rapidly foster of militias in the aftermath of economic growth after a political a transition, organize and train transition. This should include the security forces (military, police, and ability to work with locals to fund intelligence) at scale and rapidly, startups of small- and medium- and build institutions to establish

37 Reinventing the transatlantic partnership

The Transatlantic alliance may no longer carry the weight it once did, as the economic and geopolitical focus becomes increasingly global. But the fortunes of this tried and tested partnership can–and should–be revived through bold leadership from NATO, by modernizing structures based on postwar defense needs and focusing on global security

This memo rejects that argument rests on these propositions and logic: and the pessimism associated • First, the current structure for with allegations of declining international security still rests American power and influence. on institutions emanating from It argues instead that reinventing World War II, the Cold War and the and rejuvenating the Transatlantic mid-20th century. The UN, World partnership will prove a much more Bank, IMF, NATO and the original effective and even more efficient G7 are prime examples. Yet, the means for advancing American and international system has long Western interests and enhancing become more diffuse, multipolar global security, particularly in a and globalized, in which no world where Asia may loom larger single state or organization can geopolitically and economically, dictate to the rest. For the 21st By Harlan Ullman by exploiting the advantages of a century, old structures must be tested and proven alliance that can modernized or new ones put in and must be aligned to deal with place that recognize and respond to or nearly seven decades, the realities, dangers, uncertainties these profound changes, realizing the Transatlantic and challenges of the 21st century. that many are self-evident and partnership has served But to revive Transatlantic fortunes, that others are still evolving. as the bedrock for bold and innovative ideas along with • Second, security still remains Western security. equally bold, effective and courageous largely defined by and synonymous Today, for many leadership are crucial. Publics and with defense, not the reverse. reasons, this partnership is in politicians, including skeptics, cynics States talk about security but Ftrouble and in decline. Some in and many who are just indifferent, spend on defense. That NATO this country go further and have must be convinced of the pressing remains predominantly a military argued that the Transatlantic link need for, merits of and reasoning alliance underscores this inverse has outlived its usefulness as the behind reinventing and rejuvenating relationship and disparity. The front line for safeguarding European this alliance. Unfortunately, the direct military threat to the alliance and American security and can seemingly ubiquitous failure of disappeared twenty years ago as the or should be subordinated to U.S. governments worldwide to govern Soviet Union imploded. Hence, the interests that have shifted to Asia and irrespective of geography complicates broader meaning of security and the Middle East for understandable and impedes rallying public support. not the more limited concept of geostrategic and economic reasons. The plan of action for you to approve defense must be central to strategic

38 A roundtable meeting of NATO defense ministers at NATO headquarters in Brussels

39 War has shifted from traditional battles to broader issues of security

thinking and responding to or to field conventional forces in and assign resources accordingly. the challenges of the 21st century numbers as large as in the past. Physical security clearly has rather than to threats of the past. • Finally, given the absence of domestic as well as international • Third, national security is about an existential threat to the implications and consequences. protecting and responding to Transatlantic community and Criminality and the threat of, or the needs of people and publics. NATO for a long time to come actual, foreign attack can be either Economic, physical and psychic unless we are really clumsy over from international or domestic security are key elements. War itself China or Russia, enough money sources with terror and cyber threats has shifted for the moment from resides in European defense falling into grey areas. Blurring of traditional battles between more or ministries to address shared borders and boundaries by terror, less like armies to conflicts about security needs provided that money cyber and the ambiguous legal and over people in which military is used smartly. No one is for stupid consequences of these and other force, if or when necessary, is not defense. And despite pleas for threats constitute and complicate how sufficient to carry the day alone. smart defense made most vocally states can secure and protect their Despite pledges and promises by NATO's able Secretary General people and cannot be treated simply calling for whole of government Anders Fogh Rasmussen, so far that as a matter of national defense. and comprehensive approaches is largely rhetoric. Smarter defense Economic security does not mean to security, this has not yet been is critical and we can take the lead permanent livelihood and privilege. achieved. Iraq, Afghanistan, in advancing ways to achieve this. It means fair opportunity for all and Yemen, and now Libya are unhappy a social conscious for addressing the case studies making this point. NATO, therefore, can and must less fortunate. And it means ensuring • Fourth, if security is still mostly become the means for reinventing a free and fair system of trade and cast in 20th century terms, then the and rejuvenating the Transatlantic finance across national borders. notion of an "industrial base" to partnership. The most powerful Psychic security is the most support defense of the realm dates force driving this reinvention is difficult to define. When economies from the late 19th century. What understanding that defense no are good and dangers low, people feel is needed is an "intellectual" base longer can be the default setting for more secure. But given the reverse, incorporating the industrial sector defining national security, if it ever as is the case today especially in the as well, given that intellectual could. In turn, governments must economic sector (and in the minds property is far more critical take as their chief security principle of some scaremongers exaggerating than the ability to "bend iron" protection of the citizenry and people the threat of Jihadist extremism

40 intent of not only rebuilding confidence measures but finding actual means to build stronger global cooperative arrangements that deal with proliferation and instability. A separate memo will be provided with details for this effort. Fourth, NATO should begin shifting from a defense industrial to a security intellectual base that fits the 21st century in which intellectual property is the coin of the realm. Both this and the second recommendation should be carried out in conjunction with the European Union and other NATO partners. Fifth, the key to success is people. Smart or smarter defense and Integrating countries such as Turkey security demand smart and into Europe could enhance security smarter people. This can only be achieved through greater and Chinese militarism), then and failed states loom as more knowledge and understanding. governments and leaders, i.e. YOU, pertinent candidates for disruption Both can only be achieved through must inspire enough confidence and threat, NATO must respond with learning and education. This about the future to convince the even greater resolve and commitment requires a revolution to transform public that conditions will change to address these broader challenges. the advancement of knowledge and for the better. The required skill Second, the alliance must think understanding by better integrating sets for these tasks differentiate the and act strategically in what its the many, largely uncoordinated brilliant from the run of the mill European commander Admiral and separate government or ordinary politician and leader. James Stavridis calls a "new, new controlled educational and learning wo rl d ." Former National Security institutions based on creating this What should we do? Advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski called for new security intellectual base. A First and foremost, NATO can the integration of Russia and Turkey separate memo has been provided and must amend the Washington into Europe as the best foundation for your review on spurring this treaty to move it from a military for enhancing global security. NATO revolution in security education. to a security (or even a strategic- has experimented with this type Last, the opportunity to reinvent military) alliance. Some members of thinking in terms of expanding and rejuvenate the Transatlantic will resist any change. Security and partnerships. Building on that and Alliance for the 21st century is real strategic could be specifically reaching out to the but fleeting. Opposition at home viewed as too expansive, inevitably Shanghai Cooperative Organization as and abroad as well as the inertia destined to engage and embroil the well as other organizations and blocs of the status quo are formidable alliance in future situations and crises are ways to think and act strategically. obstacles. But ideas count. Big, bold beyond its competence and charter. Third, regarding reinventing and smart ideas count more. Then, Some argued Afghanistan was a bridge and rejuvenating strategic the trick is making them work. That too far. While the Libyan campaign concepts and creating new requires the leadership that you can removed Mr. Qaddafi and has been ideas, NATO should task Allied provide and the main reason why declared a success by Command Transformation you were (re)elected president. NATO, the jury is still out on that (ACT) to undertake this effort country's future. But, given that concentrating first on Russia Harlan Ullman is chairman of the military means are no longer and the mix of strategic and Killowen Group that advises leaders of sufficient to guarantee security, conventional deterrence to government and business and senior particularly as cyber, energy, terror include missile defense with the adviser at the Atlantic Council

41 Playing the long game against the Iranian threat

One of the greatest challenges facing the President of the United States is posed by Iran, which is advancing towards a nuclear weapons capability while saber-rattling in the Persian Gulf. The United States and its allies must pursue a strategy that contains Iran’s influence, keeps the Iranian military boxed in, and slows Iran’s nuclear weapons acquisition efforts, even as we reset Gulf security arrangements

1. Prevent the Iranian regime election in favor of Mahmoud from gaining greater influence in Ahmadinejad brought protesters the Persian Gulf and the broader out onto the streets. Of course, Muslim world until demographic subsequently, Iranian security forces trends succeed in changing the brutally crushed the Green Revolution Iranian leadership from within. protestors in front of television This requires supporting the Iranian cameras for all the world to see. people to the greatest extent possible. Since then, the U.S. has withdrawn 2. Keep the Iranian military and all of its combat forces from Iraq its proxies boxed in, and respond (thanks in part to Iranian assistance, swiftly and brutally to any Iranian training, and weapons provided to military or paramilitary provocation. Iraqi insurgents); Iran and Iraq are 3. Slow Iran’s acquisition of a on better terms than at any time By Barry Pavel nuclear weapons capability, even as in recent history; the U.S. and its we reset Gulf security arrangements coalition partners in Afghanistan are with our European allies to deter withdrawing their forces at a rapid ran poses the most a nuclear weapons-capable Iran. pace; the global financial crisis has set significant near-term foreign back the economic and military power and security policy challenge The current state of play of the West, and with it the level of to the United States of any Iran is ascendant compared to its ambition of both Western diplomats nation, and it is currently position just a few years ago, but and military chiefs; and the Arab our greatest geopolitical this newfound power will prove Spring has played out without (yet) foe. It has the greatest potential to ephemeral. A few years ago, Iran was affecting the Iranian ruling theocracy. Iupend your Presidency (as it did boxed in with hundreds of thousands On the nuclear issue, Iran has Jimmy Carter’s) and prevent you of U.S. and coalition military continued its progress toward from achieving your highest-priority forces conducting operations in its acquiring a nuclear weapons goals domestically and abroad. neighbors to the west (Iraq) and to the capability, despite crippling economic Leading the world to handle east (Afghanistan). While the Arab and other sanctions and a sustained Iran effectively during your term Spring had not yet sprung, the Persian Western covert-action campaign. will require sustained attention Summer threatened the leadership’s Multiple Israeli assassinations on diplomatic and military fronts. hold on power in 2009, when the of Iranian nuclear scientists; the Your goals should be threefold: rigging of the Iranian Presidential sabotage of various Iranian nuclear-

42 A heavy-water production facility in central Iran could allow the country access to weapons-grade material, according to atomic experts

43 related facilities; the unprecedented Stuxnet cyberattack on Iranian nuclear centrifuges, which ushered in a new class of military warfare; and other related measures have not had any noticeable effects on Iran’s march toward a weapon. It is likely that the broad, crippling economic sanctions that were greatly strengthened in January 2012 were the key factor in bringing Iran back to the nuclear negotiating table earlier this year. But we should expect nothing more from this process other than what we have seen before in both Iran’s approach to nuclear negotiations and North Korea’s: cycles of hopeful diplomacy, a few deals made, and then deals subsequently and patently broken as each country buys time to make progress on their highest- priority weapons programs. The U.S. can help loosen Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s grip on power in Iran The way forward: how to redress recent Iranian gains population from the corrupt ruling box, through robust presence and A threefold strategy—with each theocrats in every way possible. brutally effective and rapid responses element reinforcing the other—will The only way to do this to any further Iranian aggression, help guard against the most dangerous effectively is to: coercion or provocation. Time and near-term Iranian provocations while • Reinvest in U.S. engagement in again, Iran has shown that it will also playing for the long game. the region. Key regional actors compromise and deal constructively First, the U.S. must reinvigorate think the U.S. has disengaged with the international community its diplomacy in the Persian Gulf and that U.S. leadership is absent. only when it is made clear to the and broader Middle East to curtail This dangerous perception of mullahs that their enemies are Iran’s influence and make clear that a leadership vacuum must be willing to use military force when the U.S. is engaged in the region. reversed, and very soon. necessary. The lack of response to The 18-34 year old cohort • Greatly strengthen public the attempted Iranian killing of the in Iran is among the most diplomacy, cultural exchanges Saudi Ambassador to the United States pro-American population in the and related efforts to help show in Washington, DC, in 2011 was entire world: they are Internet- the Iranian people that the U.S. interpreted by the Iranian leadership connected, Western-oriented, and Europe welcome them and (and the Gulf Cooperation Council and disdainful of the theocratic want to integrate them into nations) as yet another sign of leadership that continues to rule the international community. weakness and distraction on the part Iran with an iron fist. And they are You should talk directly to of the United States. The U.S. should a large and growing proportion of the Iranian people about the have responded swiftly, brutally the total Iranian population. manifold benefits that will and precisely against those who are Therefore, a primary goal accrue to all parties when your known to have ordered this attack. of your policy should be to initiative becomes a movement. Third, the U.S. needs to reset the support those in Iran who want You should give a speech on this security architecture in the Persian to return this great nation to the topic in Istanbul in early 2013. Gulf to prepare for the run-up to and international community, and to Second, the U.S. military needs deterrence of a nuclear weapons- split both them and the broader to keep the Iranian military in a capable Iran. Yes, we should continue

44 the P5+1 diplomacy and redouble Bahrain and Saudi Arabia; and • Reset the U.S. military posture in our efforts to get Iran to give up • Take other aggressive actions the Gulf, which is geared more its nuclear weapons program. Yes, and seek to exploit fleeting for the 20th century than the sanctions are working effectively but opportunities to gain 21st. Our forces in the region are they are both broad and blunt, and advantage relentlessly. heavily concentrated in a few we are making new enemies among Perhaps most importantly, a very short places (e.g., Kuwait, Qatar), and the Iranian people as a result. When time after it becomes clear that Iran those forces are vulnerable to all is said and done, the history of has nuclear weapons, Saudi Arabia will the hundreds of Iranian short-, Iran’s acquisition of nuclear weapons acquire such weapons from Pakistan, medium-, and intermediate-range will play out just as North Korea’s either through purchase or through ballistic missiles now fielded long-term program did: they will Pakistan simply prepositioning the throughout Iran. Our forces’ degree get the bomb by buying time. weapons in Saudi Arabia. This means of concentration also makes them A military strike on Iran—by that the nuclear balance in the Middle vulnerable to changing political Israel or the United States—would East will become the most unstable winds in these countries. be a greater catastrophe for U.S. and complex nuclear relationship in This critical effort will be costly interests and would play out with history, with three “poles” of nuclear and dangerous. NATO deterred and much more unpredictability than power (Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Israel) contained the Soviet Union over simply strengthening current separated by five- to twelve-minute the course of roughly forty years, efforts to squeeze the leadership. ballistic missile flight times and vastly with many Cold War crises, and at A strike also would be marginally different polities and cultures. a cost of trillions of dollars until the riskier than preparing to deter There is no time to waste to work Soviet Union crumbled under its and contain a nuclear Iran. We with our close allies in the Gulf own weight. We should not expect need not advertise preparations Cooperation Council to prepare for an analogous effort against Iran for deterrence/containment as this world, to reassure them that the to take forty years to succeed, as designed solely for countering a U.S. and NATO have their backs, and changes in the region and within nuclear Iran, and thus we need not to erect a deterrence architecture Iran are moving at a faster pace. admit to failure in our current work and supporting military posture. But such an effort might take ten to stop their nuclear program. years, and there will be many crises. We should have no illusions Key elements of this We should not be surprised if one of that the world with a nuclear Iran campaign must include: those crises features the first use of will be easy. It will be a far more • Leading NATO to establish a nuclear weapons since August 9, 1945. dangerous world, as once Iran has formal relationship with the Mr. President, this may be a nuclear shield it will act much GCC, starting first in air, missile the most urgent and historic more aggressively at all other levels defense, maritime operations, effort that you undertake abroad of warfare and provocation. and command and control, and in the next four years. then building on those efforts We should expect a nuclear Iran to: more comprehensively. NATO’s Barry Pavel is Arnold Kanter Chair • Sponsor terrorism worldwide focus should be to work with key and Director-designate of the Brent (including cyberterrorism) GCC partners to help strengthen Scowcroft Center on International with far greater resources and interoperability. Qatar and the Security at the Atlantic Council. Prior far less concern about drawing United Arab Emirates have proven to joining the Council, he served on boundaries around such behavior. themselves willing and able in the the National Security Council staff for • Export ballistic missiles to its recent operation over Libya, and Presidents George W. Bush and Barack key allies and partners, likely we should build on such progress Obama, and as in the Office of the U.S. including a post-Chavez Venezuela in broader and deeper ways. under secretary of defense for policy (which has implications for • Arming the GCC itself and helping U.S. security cooperation in the to erect political-military structures western hemisphere and U.S. that will enable its members homeland missile defenses). to consult routinely among • “Stir the Shia pot” in its immediate themselves and to develop habits neighborhood with much greater of cooperation to steel this alliance vigor, especially in places like anew against the Iranian challenge.

45 Strategic engagement with Russia 2013-17

The U.S. has an important opportunity to improve relations with Russia. This memo suggests some strategic areas where this can be done: resolving Ballistic Missile Defense differences; moving forward with the next stage of significant nuclear weapons reductions for both strategic and theater systems; addressing some long-standing sore spots such as the North Caucasus and Moldova; and enriching Russia-NATO cooperation

be an exaggeration to say that he will be to prevent Russia from moving has and will have sole command in ways that weaken his control and of Russia’s future. But it would challenge his authority on key issues. be an equally serious mistake to The most important issue underestimate his influence. affecting Russia’s domestic policy is Putin has chosen to deal with corruption. It also remains the most the emerging forces on Russia’s untouchable. Some years ago, Putin streets in a careful and balanced publicly recognized the importance way. The middle classes and those of working to end corruption. But he who joined them from what used to also frankly and openly admitted he be the proletariat were greeted with could do little to make the change. the twin policies of co-option and This has led analysts to believe that intimidation. By herding through even Putin does not have full and By Thomas R. Pickering intimidation at the same time as unfettered control of the country absorbing through co-option, he in this area. It may indicate that he clearly intends to keep a tight rein remains beholden to some of his ussia remains, in on change and new initiatives, subordinates because he and they ‘Churchillian’ working pragmatically with participate jointly in murky “deals.” terms, an enigmatic whomever he believes can help him mystery. In its manage a new and changing state. In its relations with Russia, the U.S. post-Communist The future will not bring a return has the opportunity to take the transition to a to the Putin state of full authority, or initiative on a number of key issues. modern state, Russia has shed most of vlast, of the early 2000s, with near- First, talks on cooperative ballistic Rthe impedimenta of Communism and dictatorial powers where and when he missile defense should be reopened. begun to search for new directions. needed them. Public demonstrations Significant changes in Russia-U.S. But the old conflict between pose a continuing challenge that he relations already resulted from the “Slavophiles” and “Westernizers” has will be hard put to deal with. At the 2009 move to negotiate a ‘New START emerged in the streets in a new guise same time, however, he has shown Treaty’ on nuclear-weapons and and the outcome remains uncertain. that he commands popularity, despite delivery-vehicle reductions. While Although Putin has secured a concerns over the fairness of the the New START cuts were relatively third term as President, it would March 4th elections. His priority now small, they reflected an effort on both

46 east of the Urals. U.S. tactical weapons could be eliminated or returned to the continental United States. This would require great care in dealing with our European allies. Many see such nukes as an essential part of the linkage of U.S. nuclear forces to NATO defense and deterrence and have been assigned a role in delivering tactical weapons under NATO war plans. Thirdly, we now face a broad set of opportunities to deal with old or festering issues that sour our relations with Russia. These include differences left over from the fall of Communism in the North Caucasus

Putin is likely to take a pragmatic and along the Ukraine border in approach to future U.S.-Russian relations Moldova; arguments over the four disputed Kurile Islands with Japan; sides to achieve a win-win outcome. disarmament. In both the U.S. and and arrangements between Russia and Since then, the BMD talks have Russia, experts have begun to look at NATO over a more robust partnership stalled because of Russian fears that a new lower limit of 1,000 operational to deal with European and extra- our Ballistic Missile Defense System weapons and related delivery vehicles, regional issues as well as closer trade will destabilize Russian deterrence. down from 1,550 under New START. and economic cooperation, which Moscow’s requests for a treaty Some are also suggesting moving could make progress if Russia moves guarantee or even a right of veto over the entire delivery force to single forward with reforms at home. use of the system have been rejected warheads. Two related steps have also Predicting Putin is very hard. He by the U.S. on the grounds that a been suggested: to eliminate most keeps his cards very close to his chest. treaty guarantee would be unlikely or nearly all of the 4,000 “reserve” But my sense is that his pragmatic to be ratified by the Senate, while weapons and those in re-work or tactics for staying on top and the the proposed right of veto opportunities outlined has raised concerns about above will move him Russia blocking missiles toward gradual change and use against the other states We now face a broad set of an improvement in our for which the system opportunities to deal with... relationship. We will see has been configured, issues that sour our relations a Putin using co-option North Korea and Iran. more and intimidation With the presidential with Russia less. Or if he uses the latter, elections in both he will seek to do so in Russia and the United support of further positive States out of the way, it is time undergoing dismantlement on the change within Russia and with its now to look for a way forward. US side and a larger number on the friends and neighbors, as well as, Possible technical and practical Russian side; and to try for the first possibly, even with its enemies. solutions to the stalemate that could time to combine limits on tactical not be put on the table during the weapons with freedom to mix within Thomas R. Pickering is an Atlantic US and Russian election campaigns the proposed overall 1,000 limit. Council Board director and former may help to provide a solution. These In parallel, we should consider under secretary of state for political could include possible greater clarity removing all remaining tactical affairs. During a four-decade career in about current U.S. plans and a clear weapons from close to the former line the U.S. diplomatic service, he served exposition of future U.S. plans. A of confrontation in Europe. Russian in numerous ambassadorial posts, second opportunity comes with tactical weapons, should Moscow wish including as U.S. ambassador to Russia a possible further stage of nuclear to preserve them, might be stationed

47 Homeland security in the 21st century

Since September 11th, 2001, the United States has not suffered a significant or successful major terrorist attack by outside forces. We can thank both good planning and luck for this. But we can neither depend on luck nor rely solely on our past experience going forward. We must look ahead and anticipate new and emerging threats. The first decade after September 11th was spent rebuilding our military, intelligence and law enforcement capabilities. The task ahead will be to better integrate and leverage these strengths

as “jointness” was imposed environment and emerging threats on the military services as a result have changed since September 11th. of the Goldwater-Nichols reform, both the Bush and the Obama To achieve this, we must administrations have applied the understand several same framework to protecting overarching realities: the United States at home. • First, protection of infrastructure But luck also counts and we have against possible cyber attack is been very lucky. Tragic though it was, still in a formative stage while the the worst incident since 9/11 was the threat grows ever more serious. Fort Hood shootings in which former • Second, information- Army psychiatrist Nidal Hassan sharing, though no longer a killed or wounded about forty U.S. technical challenge, remains By Frances Townsend service personnel and civilians. Had a policy challenge. the so-called underwear and Times • Third, the United States has Square bombers been competent, we still not devised an appropriate he George W. Bush would have lost more American lives. strategic communications administration Today, Bin Laden is dead and al program to take on and turn the in which I served Qaeda has been substantially degraded ideological battle to our favor. took remarkable in Afghanistan. Internationally, • Fourth, while we have learned actions to realign, cooperation between and among how to coordinate and improve rebuild and refocus states has vastly improved. However, interagency cooperation, the our capacity to protect the nation at safe havens, proliferation and the need assignment of responsibilities home. Congress and the September to improve interagency information- between and among Defense, CIA Tth 11 Commission played crucial roles sharing all remain serious challenges. and the intelligence community, as the nation sought to knock down To meet these challenges, we must State, Treasury and law enforcement the “stovepipes” and walls that had redesign and refocus our priorities for remains ambiguous and requires divided and isolated our military, safeguarding America and Americans more precise delineation. intelligence, law enforcement, at home and abroad, to take account diplomatic and financial agencies. Just of the ways in which the security

48 Work on cyber defense will prove critical to homeland security

What should you do? talent and intellectual capital to both offensive and defensive, must First, and most urgently, we need solve our most difficult challenges. vest responsibility where our national to tackle the increasingly serious One priority should be to establish capability resides. They must be threat of possible cyber attacks. The a public/private-sector institute for comprehensive and flexible enough Department of Defense has a new cyber on a model similar to that to continue to control the use of Cyber Command. But, since the bulk chosen by the Air Force when it set emerging technologies. And they of cyber vulnerabilities are civilian up RAND to study nuclear weapons. must ensure adequate Congressional and in the private sector, it has been This institute would be charged with oversight while balancing and difficult to coordinate and integrate developing theory and practice for a protecting legitimate privacy and civil the many disparate public and private national cyber policy with both public liberties equities. We must never again sector interests and capabilities. and private applications. allow a situation where cyber tools What is lacking is an intellectual To give this institute force, Congress are available but their deployment framework that sets is prohibited because of a forth responsibilities and failure to anticipate and objectives and identifies Though there have been structure a legal regime capabilities and legal to govern their use. authorities as well as efforts made across two Second, information- emerging technologies administrations, victory in the sharing between and and technological gaps. war of ideas eludes our grasp among agencies must be The nation requires a improved. Much progress new paradigm for public/ has been made across two private partnerships that Administrations, but the goes beyond the decades-old ethics should have a key role in setting it case of the “underwear bomber” and conflicts regulatory regime. up as well as having direct access. painfully demonstrated that it still While some rules remain necessary, The oversight board should include is not enough. Until you demand current threats require a common- members of Congress, the Executive that technology, rather than people, sense approach that permits rapid, branch and distinguished civilians, enable information sharing, and hold fulsome and penalty-free exchange with or without government Cabinet Secretaries accountable for of public/private information and experience. Such an institute making it happen, the only certainty capability. Now, more than perhaps must be populated with the best is that we will fail to prevent another at any time in our history, the minds in the relevant practices, attack. There are risks to information- government needs the ability to to be compensated accordingly. sharing, as we learned from Wikileaks. leverage private-sector experience, In parallel, clear legal authorities, But the tools exist to manage that risk.

49 Tomorrow's security challenges will pose many different types of threats

Third, we need to work harder and of the American people as well. screen. But one attack or incident to win “the war of ideas." Nearly Finally, we must resolve a number can change that as dramatically nine years ago, a Defense Science of difficult and elusive issues that as the burning of Korans did in Board Task Force on the then global are a continued source of doubt and Afghanistan. We must be prepared war on terror concluded that the controversy. These include the use of for the unexpected, because, as we U.S. could never win the war on drones against U.S. citizens as well as have seen, a single incident can have terror unless it won the war of ideas. targets that may be neither friend nor strategic consequences. And we Though there have been efforts made foe; the use of surveillance in both must continue to adapt, innovate across two Administrations, victory public and private places; and the and design our capabilities to in the war of ideas still eludes our future of Guantanamo Bay. We must confront emerging threats within grasp. We have failed to establish zealously protect our Constitutional greater resource constraints. a comprehensive and integrated, right to privacy and unnecessary or Because these issues are difficult to all-of-government approach on that unwarranted government intrusion. resolve, they require a public/private battlefield. A successful effort requires But again, the national interest calls partnership unlike any we have clear authority, accountability and for clarity, certainty and transparency. engaged in up to now. Their resolution responsibility within government, requires a nonpartisan approach as well as the engagement of private The dangers of the unexpected to the nation’s security challenges and non-profit sector expertise. Homeland security will become that has been elusive recently. Under Fourth, though there have been more difficult to assure in the future. your leadership, execution and improvements in interagency Adversaries will be more cunning. implementation of the priorities and coordination, overlaps and Cyber aggression and other means objectives set forth in this memo ambiguities still need to be to outwit our defenses pose new can, must and will be achieved. addressed. From the debate between dangers. Budget cuts are a reality the military and the CIA on the that will sharpen if sequestration Frances Townsend served as assistant battlefield to the debate on law occurs next January. Meanwhile, we to the president for homeland security enforcement versus intelligence live with a system that was largely and counterterrorism under President in terrorism investigations, clarity designed a decade ago when the George W. Bush and before that in the U.S. is the only thing that will assure world was radically different. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District appropriate and complete use Because we have been both good of New York. She is a national security of existing legal authorities. and lucky and perhaps because our contributor for CNN and a senior vice Clarity is needed, not only at enemies have found it easier to operate president at MacAndrews and Forbes the level of the Executive branch locally, protection of the American but also on the part of Congress homeland is off the public radar

50 To get involved, please visit us at www.acus.org RENEWING THE ATLANTIC COMMUNITY FOR GLOBAL CHALLENGES

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