Shipbuilding Uncertainty and consolidation in the shipbuilding industry In 2019, newbuilding orders were placed at a monthly rate of about 5 to 6 million tons deadweight, similar to that which prevailed in the second half of 2018, compared to about 10 million tons deadweight in the first half of 2018. The reduced pace of ordering had several causes. Firstly, the widening disparity between newbuilding prices and earnings resulting from price increases that prevailed in 2017 and 2018. Secondly, growing uncertainty within the shipping industry as it prepared for the introduction of the global 0.5% sulphur cap on marine fuels. Thirdly, geopolitical instability and fear of a further escalation in the trade dispute between China and USA. Persistent financing challenges and the difficulty to raise equity or obtain long term employment in a world lacking visibility constituted another cause, along with nagging questions concerning the shipping industry’s capability to ever generate profits. MSC GRANDIOSA Delivered by French shipbuilder Chantiers de l’Atlantique to MSC on 31 October 2019. GT 181544 - Loa 331 m – Beam 43 m – Height 67 m - 6634 pax – 1704 crew. 15th cruiseship built and delivered by the yard for MSC. Photo: B.Biger -Chantiers de l’Atlantique Orders Million dwt 300 250 200 150 100 50 SHIPBUILDING SHIPBUILDING KEY POINTS OF 2019 KEY POINTS OF 2019 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Deliveries vs demolitions Fleet evolution Deliveries vs. Demolitions Fleet KEY POINTS OF 2019 Summary 2018 2019 Million dwt Million dwt Million dwt Million dwt Ships 1,272 1,028 Orders 200 2,000 In consequence, newbuilding orders declined significantly from 93.8 million m dwt 93.8 73.2 180 1,800 tons deadweight (1272 ships) in 2018 to 73.2 million tons deadweight (1028 Ships 1,151 1,266 160 ships) in 2019. Demand for bulkers, container carriers and special ships Deliveries m dwt 79.2 97.6 140 1,600 followed this global downward trend and receded sharply. However, demand 120 for tankers increased substantially thanks to a much better freight market, Ships 3,024 2,786 1,400 Orderbook 100 especially during the second half of the year. It is always interesting to note m dwt 225.7 201.2 80 1,200 how quickly the shipping market commits to huge investments that will last a Ships 37,588 38,449 60 generation, based on a temporary change of sentiment in the freight market. Active Fleet 1,000 40 m dwt 1,852.6 1,933.8 In spite of lower global demand, newbuilding prices hardly diminished (by 20 800 Ships 8.0% 7.2% about 5%), with yards considering prices to be already depressed enough given 0 Orderbook/Active Fleet 600 increased building costs driven by higher steel prices, new regulations and m dwt 12.2% 10.4% -20 renewed pressure from marine equipment suppliers that they had to contend -40 400 with. Prices softened less in the tanker segment and more in the bulker and -60 200 container carrier segments. -80 Orderbook 2018 2019 -100 0 The three Asian shipbuilding giants, representing more than 95% of the global 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 orderbook by deadweight, continued to fight fiercely in a poor market. In Market share 43.0% 45.4% 2019, China improved its existing top position with a further increase to 45.4% of market share. In second place, Korea maintained its market share at 28.1%, China Ships 1309 1206 Deliveries Demolitions Fleet Evolution while Japan’s market share in third place slipped back to 22 %. The "rest of m dwt 97.1 91.4 the world" (RoW) and Europe registered a 2.6% and 1.9% share of the global Market share 27.8% 28.1% market, respectively. Korea Ships 460 483 Orders After having declined in 2018 to 79.2 million deadweight as a result of the m dwt 62.7 56.6 Million dwt reduction in newbuilding orders in 2016 (32.6m dwt), newbuilding deliveries rebounded in 2019 to 97.6 million deadweight, reflecting the dynamism in Market share 24.2% 22.0% Orders 300 newbuilding orders seen in 2017 and 2018 (79m dwt and 93.8m dwt). As a Japan Ships 741 625 consequence of the imbalance between deliveries and newbuilding orders, Million dwt m dwt 54.9 44.1 the global orderbook decreased from 225.7 million deadweight end of 2018 Market share 1.6% 1.9% 250 to 201.2 million deadweight end of 2019. Meanwhile, the world fleet has continued to increase uninterrupted since 1993, growing in 2019 from 1,852 Europe Ships 288 285 200 million deadweight (37,588 ships) to 1,934 million deadweight (38,449 ships). m dwt 3.6 3.9 If shipowners shifted away from shipbuilders last year, the second-hand market Market share 3.3% 2.6% followed the same trend as 2018 in respect of deadweight exchanged, with 146.6 150 ROW Ships 226 187 million deadweight in sales in 2019 versus 146.2 million deadweight in 2018. Sales slightly decreased in term of number of ships sold (2,780 vs 2,883) however. m dwt 7.4 5.2 100 50 2018 2019 0 GT Dwt N° Ships GT Dwt N° Ships 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Market Sales 93,350,590 146,224,032 2,883 92,295,104 146,626,204 2,780 Bulk Tanker Containers Others Demolition Sales 12,044,517 20,914,799 226 3,720,014 5,692,169 96 NB Resales 10,603,026 16,828,220 166 8,833,669 14,344,794 163 Deliveries vs. Demolitions Fleet Million dwt Million dwt 200 2,000 180 1,800 160 140 1,600 120 BRS GROUP - Annual review1,400 2020 BRS GROUP - Annual review 2020 6 100 7 80 1,200 60 1,000 40 20 800 0 600 -20 -40 400 -60 200 -80 -100 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 SHIPBUILDING SHIPBUILDING WORLD ECONOMY, MARITIME TRADE AND FREIGHT RATES WORLD ECONOMY, MARITIME TRADE AND FREIGHT RATES A two-tier market developed in the last quarter of 2019 WORLD ECONOMY, MARITIME Global Trade and World GDP & Active Fleet Growth Tanker Global trade and world GDP & active fleet growth between scrubber-fitted and non-scrubber fitted tankers as TRADE AND FREIGHT RATES the spread between VLSFO and HSFO prices widened (see In the clean segment, the Baltic Exchange Clean Tanker Index (BCTI) began 12% below). Whether it will last beyond the first months of 2020 10.2% 2019 at 666 and ended at 958, and averaged 607 over the year, compared 9.3% remains to be seen. 9.8% with 579 in 2018. World Economy 7.1% 8% 6.5% Average 1-year Time Charter rates were as follows: Global economic growth slipped back to 3.2% in 2019 5.4% Container against 3.6% in 2018 according to the IMF. This was the 4.2% 4.1% 4.2% 4.4% • MR2.........: $13,703 in 2018 and $14,439 in 2019 3.9% 3.6% 3.6% 3.6% slowest pace since the financial crisis of 2009. Amongst 4% 3.4% 4.3% • LR1..........: $13,326 in 2018 and $16,072 in 2019 The Alphaliner Charter Index grew by 44% in 2019, however 3.5% 3.5% 3.4% 3.5% 3.7% 3.8% 3.2% the reasons given by the IMF were: the uncertainties linked 3.4%3.3% 3.2% 3.0% • LR1..........: $14,221 in 2018 and $20,311 in 2019 2.7%2.8% this healthy growth was not broad-based and larger ships to Brexit, the imposition of sanctions on a growing list of 2.2% 1.7% 0% During 2019, 1-year Time Charter rates fluctuated within the following bands: outperformed smaller sizes. 4,000 teu and larger performed countries and trade tensions between the world’s two -0.1% much better than sub 4,000 teu, while the 1,000 teu sector largest economic powers: China and the United States, which • MR2........: between $13,750 and $16,000 per day led to an increase in customs tariffs. All told, this damaged was flat. -4% • LR1.........: between $15,000 and $18,000 per day the confidence of companies and their capacity to invest. -4.1% • LR1.........: between $18,000 and $26,000 per day IMO 2020 will significantly impact carriers’ operating costs. Unfortunately, this had a negative impact on global trade In the crude segment, the Baltic Exchange Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) started the Only 10% of the fleet in teu terms is fitted with scrubbers -8% and maritime transportation: seaborne trade growth slid year at 1009 and ended at 1597, with an overall average of 855 in 2019 versus and this ratio is largely biased in favour of the largest ships 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 from 2.7% in 2018 to 1.7% in 2019. 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 798 in 2018. (see below). But the scrubber retrofitting wave, which took World GDP SeaborneSeaborne Trade Trade WorldWorld Active Active Fleet Fleet Growth Growth Average Time Charter rates were: more than one million teu capacity out of service at end- Maritime Trade 2019 countered to some extent the negative effects from • Aframax: $14,395 in 2018 and $20,694 in 2019 the reduction in seaborne transportation growth.