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NOAA Technical Memorandum NWS HYDRO-32 STOFWI TIDE

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NOAA Technical Memorandum NWS HYDRO-32 STOFWI TIDE NOAA Technical Memorandum NWS HYDRO-32 STOFWI TIDE FREQUENCY ANALYSIS FOR THE OPEN COAST OF VIRGINIA, MARYLAND, AND DELAWARE Silver Spring, Mdo August 1976 NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ~ational'Weather n~aaATMOSPHERIC ADMIN,sTRATloN Service NOAA TECHNICAL MEMORANDA National Weather Service, Office of Hydrology Series The Office of Iljrdrology (HYDRO) of the National Weather Service (NlVS) develops procedures for making river and water supply forecasts, analyzes hydrometeorological data for planning and design criteria for other agencies, and conducts pertinent research and development. NOAA Technical Memoranda in the NWS HYDRO series facilitate prompt distribution of scientific and technical material by staff members, cooperators, and contractors. Information presented in this series may be preliminary in nature and may be published formally elsewhere at a later date. Publication 1 is in the former series, Weather Bureau Technical Notes (TN); publications 2 to 11 are in the former ser- ies, ESSA Technical Memoranda, Weather Bureau Technical Memoranda (IBTM) . Beginning with 12, publica- tions are now part of the series, NOAA Technizal Memoranda, NWS. Publications listed below are available from the National Technical Information Service, U.S. Depart- ment of Commerce, Sills Bldg., 5285 Port Royal Road, Springfield, Va. 22151. Price: $3.00 paper copy; $1.45 microfiche. Order by accession number shown in parentheses at end of each entry. Weather Bureau Technical Notes TN 44 HYDRO 1 Infrared Radiation from Air to Underlying Surface. Vance A. Myers, May 1966. (PB-170- 664) ESSA Technical Memoranda WBTM HYDRO 2 Annotated Bibliography of ESSA Publications of Hydrological Interest. J. L. H. Paulhus, February 1967. (Superseded by WBTM HYDRO 8) WBTM HYDRO 3 The Role of Persistence, Instability, and Moisture in the Intense Rainstorms in Eastern Colorado, June 14-17, 1965. F. K. Schwarz, February 1967. (PB-174-609) WBTbl HYDRO 4 Elements of River Forecasting. Marshall M. Richards and Joseph A. Strahl, October 1967. (Superseded by WBTM HYDRO 9) WBTM HYDRO 5 Meteorological Estimation of Extreme Precipitation for Spillway Design Floods. Vance A. Myers, October 1967. (PB-177-687) WBTM HYDRO 6 Annotated Bibliography of ESSA Publications of Hydrometeorological Interest. J. L. H. Paulhus, November 1967. (Superseded by WBTM HYDRO 8) WBTM HYDRO 7 Meteorology of Major Storms in Western Colorado and Eastern Utah. Robert L. Weaver, January 1968. (PB-177-491) WBTM HYDRO 8 Annotated Bibliography of ESSA Publications of Hydrometeorological Interest. J. L. H. Paulhus, August 1968. (PB-179-855) WBTM I-IYDRO 9 Elements of River Forecasting (Revised). Marshall M. Richards and Joseph A. Strahl, March 1969. (PB-185-969) E'IITM HYD'IO lC Flcoi Warning Ee~efit :valuation - Susqu3hanr.a River Basin (Urta,~ Residences). darold J. Day, March 1970. (PB-190-984) WBTM HYDRO 11 Joint Prohahility Method of Tide Frequency Analysis Applied to Atlantic City and Long Beach Island, N.J. Vance A. Myers, April 1970. (PB-192-745) NOAA Technical Memoranda NWS HYDRO 12 Direct Search Optimization in Mathematical Modeling and a Watershed Model Application. John C. Monro, April 1971. (COli-71-00616) WiS HYDRO 13 Time Distribution of Precipitation in 4- to 10-r)ay Storms--Ohio River Basin. John F. Miller and Ralph 1.1. Frederick, Fray 1972. (COM-72-11139) NWS HYDRO 14 National Weather Service River Forecast System Forecast Procedures. December, 1972. COM-73-10517) (Continued on inside back cover) NOAA Technical Memorandum NWS HYDRO-32 STOFCM TIDE FREQUENCY ANALYSIS FOR THE OPEN COAST OF VIRGINIA, MARYLAND, AND DELAWARE Francis P. Ho Robert J. Tracey Vance A. Myers Normalee S. Foat Office of Hydrology Silver Spring, Md, August 1976 UNITED STATES NATIONAL OCEANIC AND Nat~onalWeather DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION Serv~ce Elliot 1. Richardson, Secretory / Robert M Wh~te,Adm~n~strator / George P Cressman. Dlrector CONTENTS Page Abstract ............................. 1 1. Introduction ....................... 1 1.1 Objective and scope ................... 1 1.2 Authorization ...................... 2 1.3 Study method ...................... 2 Summary of historical storms ............... 3 Hurricane tracks .................... '3 Historical notes on hurricanes ............. 3 Winter coastal storm characteristics .......... 8 Historical notes on winter storms ............ 9 Climatology of hurricane characteristics ......... 10 North of Cape Charles. ................. 10 Probability distribution of hurricane intensity .... 10 Probability distribution of radius of maximum winds. f0 Probability distributions of speed and direction of forward motion ................... 11 Frequency of hurricane tracks ............. 11 South of Cape Henry ................... 11 Conditional probability question ........... 11 Separation of NE and SE landfalling hurricane parameters ..................... 12 Exiting hurricanes .................. 12 4 . Hurricane surge ...................... 12 4.1 Surge model ....................... 12 4.2 Shoaling factor ..................... 13 5 . Hurricane tide frequencies ................ 14 5.1 The joint probability method .............. 14 5.2 Maximum hurricane surge computations .......... 14 5.2.1 Coastal surge envelopes from landfalling hurricanes - north of Cape Charles ................ 14 5.2.2 Maximum surge for alongshore hurricanes - north of Cape Charles ....................... 15 5.2.3 South of Cape Henry .................. 22 5.3 Astronomical tides ................... 22 5.4 Hurricane tide frequencies at selected points ...... 23 6 . Winter coastal storm tides ................ 23 6.1 Evaluation of northeaster tide levels in study area ... 23 iii Page 6.2 Analysis of tide gage records .............. 23 6.2.1 Selection of data ................... 23 6.2.2 Adjustment for sea level trend ............. 24 6.2.3 Statistical analysis of maximum annual tides...... 24 6.2.4 Coastal profile of tide frequencies .......... 25 7 . Total storm tide frequency ................. 25 7.1 Combination of hurricane and northeaster tide frequencies.. .................... 25 7.2 Comparison of frequency curve .............. 27 8 . Referencedatum ...................... 28 9 . Relation of this report to disaster planning ........ 29 References ....................... i .... 30 TABLES 1 ... Hurricane and tropical storm parameters .Rehoboth Beach, Del. 17 2...Hurricane and tropical storm parameters .Ocean City, Md ... 18 3.--Hurricane and tropical storm parameters .Parramore Island, Va . 19 4...Hurricane and tropical storm parameters .Virginia Beach, Va . 20 . 5.-Hurricane and tropical storm parameters .N.C..Va. border ... 21 6.--Primary tide gages of the National Ocean Survey in and adjacent to study area........................ 24 7.-Maximum October .May tides from northeasters ......... 26 Illustrations 2a. Tracks of selected hurricanes affecting the study area. 35 2b. Tracks of selected hurricanes affecting the study area, continued . 36 3. Weather map for 1330E, November 25, 1950. 4. Weather map for 1930E, April 11, 1956 . 37 6. Marigrams for winter coastal storms of November 1950, 39 April1956, and March 1962. 7. Shoaling factor off Delmarva coasts. Adapted from Barrientos andChen(1975).. ..... .... .... ..... 40 8. Peak surge heights (ft) at the coast produced by alongshore hurricanes, The abscissa denotes distance of storm track from coast. ., . 40 9. Storm tracks for surge computations for alongshore stom . 41 10. Probability distrigution of astronomical high and low tides for hurricane season, 1955-1973, for (a) Cape May, N.J., (b) Lewes , Del. , (c) Wallops Island, Va. , and (d) Virginia Beach, Va . 42 11. Location of selected tide gage stations . , . 43 12 . Sea level trends at Lewes , Del. , illustrating .adaptation . of Hicks and ~rosby's(1974) values to this study . 44 13a. Tide frequencies at Lewes, Del., from winter coastal storms. Plotted points are seasonal (October-May) maxima. 45 13b. Same as figure 13a but for Kiptopeke Beach, Va. 45 13c. Same as figure 13a but for Hampton Roads, Va. 46 14. Coastal tide frequencies from winter coastal storms . 47 15. Coastal tide heights observed in the storms of March 1962 and November 1950 . , . 47 16. Mean normal tide range variation along the coast. 48 17. Tide frequencies at Rehoboth Beach, Del., for several classes of storms: landfalling hurricanes and tropical storms, alongshore hurricanes and tropical storms, winter storms, andallstorms.. ...a.e............... 49 Same as figure 17 but for Ocean City, Md. .......... Same as figure 17 but for Parramore Island, Va. ....... 50 Total tide frequencies on the open coast at (a) Virginia Beach, Va., and (b) Va.-N.C. border ............ 50 Coastal tide frequencies. Delmarva coasts. ......... 51 Comparison of tide frequency curve at Rehoboth Beach, Del. , with observations at Lewes , Del. Dots, annual maxima since 1948. Circles, highest values since 1900. ............ 52 Comparison of tide frequency curve at Virginia Beach, Va. with tide observations at Hampton Roads and Norfolk Navy Yard. 52 STORM TIDE FREQUENCY ANALYSIS FOR THE OPEN COAST OF VIRGINIA, PlARYLAND, AND DEXAWARE Francis Be Ho, Robert J. Tracey, Vance A. Myers, and Normalee S, Foat Office of Hydrology National Weather Service, NOM, Silver Spring, Md, A report on work for the Federal Insurance Administration, Department of Housing and Urban Development by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Admin- istration, Department of Commerce. ABSTRACT, Storm tide height frequency distributions are developed on the coast
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