SPECIAL EDITION OF THE ATLANTIC TIMES FOR THE MSC CORE GROUP MEETING IN VIENNA

June 2015 Berlin

All smiles before the G-7 meeting at Elmau: David Cameron, Angela Merkel, Barack Obama, Stephen Harper, Donald Tusk, Shinzo Abe, François Hollande, Matteo Renzi and Jean-Claude Juncker.

PICTURE ALLIANCE/GEISLER-FOTOPRESS In this issue With or The limits Frozen conflict 2-4 What does Ukraine’s future look like? And what goals is Vladimir Putin pursuing? without Russia of summitry Dmitri Trenin, Michael Stürmer and Egon Bahr give their answers. The task: Resolving the Ukraine crisis Is the G-7 still fit for purpose in a changing By Wolfgang Ischinger geo-political landscape? | By Theo Sommer Senseless sanctions? 5, 6 European states are betting on sanctions he focus on the annexation That would not only strengthen the he world is out of joint, and annoying disturbance of public order? to solve the Ukraine conflict. Eckhard Cordes of Crimea and the military EU’s ability to act effectively, it would there is nobody to set it right. Wouldn’t it have been less trouble if is concerned about the damage to Europe’s conflict in Eastern Ukraine, also send an unmistakable signal to Under the violent impact of the leaders had met on a battleship (like own economy and pleads for diplomacy on the conflict with Russia, Moscow. Islamism, state structures in Roosevelt and Churchill, or Reagan and Thas tended to obscure the view of the Secondly – what about delivering theT Middle East and North Africa are Gorbachev) or on a cruiseliner far out instead. Mark Leonard disagrees – he says sanctions have the grammar of commerce second, equally great or greater danger arms to the Ukrainian military? Mili- unraveling. Wars of religion shake up in the ocean? The Süddeutsche Zeitung but the logic of war. for Ukrainian stability, namely that of tary support for Kiev, supporting the parts of Black Africa. Perilous con- newspaper dubbed the G-7 summit a economic collapse. Ukraine is facing rehabilitation and democratization of frontations are building up in the Asia- “superfluous ritual” and asked: “What a twofold strategic challenge: that of the Ukrainian armed forces would need Pacific region. And 25 years after the is the point of all this unnecessary Working together 7 partition, and that of bankruptcy. to be part of a comprehensively coor- end of the Cold War in Europe, armed nonsense?” Europe’s security envi- The hard truth is that neither dinated political process – because no conflict has returned to the Old World Summit meetings like Elmau won’t ronment has drastically Ukraine’s territorial integrity and one will benefit from renewed escala- – hybrid, not total war, but violent change the world. First of all, they changed. Instability in the political and military security, nor tion of the conflict. On the other hand, nevertheless. are gatherings of the like-minded. The region requires a compre- its long-term economic rehabilitation we should not make a taboo out of Old certainties have evaporated in the troublemakers are not there – which hensive and more flexible can be realized while the country is military aid to Ukraine – a defenseless process: that Europe is irrevocably on makes proceedings less irksome but approach by the EU, involved in a sustained conflict with Ukraine could also present a threat to the way to an ever closer union; that also less effective. Russia’s President argues Austria’s Federal its big neighbor Russia. The case of European security. the security of Europe is central to US Vladimir Putin should, of course, have Minister for Europe, Ukraine demonstrates the need for a Thirdly, the EU must advance the strategy; that Russia no longer poses a been present; disinviting him deprived Integration and Foreign more sustainable and more compre- energy union, with the aim of greater threat to Western nations; that the rise Western leaders of an opportunity to Affairs, Sebastian Kurz. hensive security architecture in Europe diversification of oil and gas imports – of Asia, especially of China, would play reason with him or, alternatively, to – not against Russia, but with Russia. and a strategic reduction of dependence out in the economic field but would not read him the riot act. Second, these At the same time, defending against on Russian fuel. have any geopolitical and geostrategic meetings are far too short for the princi- Peace patrol 12 possible aggression from Russia hap- Fourthly, Ukraine needs much greater ramifications. pals to really master their brief on such The Organization for Security pens to be high on the agenda of many financial and economic help and Challenges, crises and conflicts spawn a vast array of issues. Third, the summit and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) cel- in the current crisis. backup. The aid that has been agreed conferences. The year 2015 has a surfeit agendas are enormously overloaded; ebrates 40 years since the Helsinki Final Act. What needs to happen to guarantee on with the International Monetary of them. Three big UN summits will they lack focus. Secretary General Lamberto Zannier Ukraine’s territorial integrity and to Fund (IMF) will not be enough. George make headlines in the next six months: Different formats are required to re- explains why it is more relevant than ever. consolidate the security architecture of Soros has lent his voice to the chorus on financing development (Addis Ababa install diplomacy in its rightful place. the whole continent? pointing this out, and has rightly in July), on the follow-up to the Millen- Since glamorous and time-consuming I propose a dual strategy, combin- stressed that more aid from the West nium Goals (New York in September), get-togethers like the Congress of Jihadi rivalry 13 ing military is of existential and on climate Vienna 1814/15 strength and importance for change (Paris in (nine months of The recent violent excesses of the Islamic security and Ukraine – far December). Theo Sommer is negotiations) or State (IS) have diverted attention in the West NATO reassur- Wolfgang Ischinger, more important All of these the executive editor the Berlin Con- away from al Qaeda. But it remains the more Germany’s former ambassador of The Security Times ance policies on than punishing subjects figured gress of 1878 dangerous opponent, warns Guido Steinberg. to the US and the UK, and The Atlantic Times the one hand, is the Chairman of the Russia with on the agenda of and former editor (four weeks) with offers of Munich Security Conference. sanctions. the G-7 confer- of the German weekly are unsuitable Die Zeit. Proxy war 14 comprehensive The “Draghi ence at Elmau. instruments cooperation in model” can Protected by in our age of The balance of power has shifted in the MSC ARCHIVE the Euro-Atlan- help here. Just 20,000 police acceleration, Middle East between Sunni and Shia states. tic region on the other – much as the as the European central Bank (ECB) and cordoned off from the world by setting up permanent ambassadorial The ongoing proxy war in the region original German Ostpolitik did in the president was able to calm the markets a 16-kilometer steel fence, the leaders conferences for the settlement of special between Iran and Saudia Arabia is the main 1970s. with a single sentence, so the EU could of the world’s seven leading indus- problems might be the best way to miti- symptom – and there is no cure in sight, Firstly, a clear military message make it clear that it will do everything trial nations, spent 27 hours talking gate and minimize the political conflicts writes Markus Bickel. remains essential. Russia’s annexation it can to support Ukraine on its path with each other. There was hardly a which are pitting the powers against of Crimea and ongoing Russian sup- to economic recovery. Such a public topic they ignored: Their “sherpas” each other in Ukraine, the Middle East port – both open and clandestine – for statement would create new confidence had formulated detailed draft recom- and the Asia-Pacific region. separatists in eastern Ukraine have lead in Ukraine. But that alone would not mendations and action plans: for cli- In the pre-atomic age, diplomacy had to very serious security concerns in suffice. If actions are to follow the mate change and ridding the oceans three tools: persuasion, compromise Europe, particularly among our east- words, it will cost money – a lot of of plastic waste, resistance to antibiot- and threat of force. The latter must ernmost NATO partners, the Baltic money – which given the debate over ics, women’s empowerment and work be ruled out in a world in containing States and Poland. Greece is not likely to be a popular standards in developing countries. In a stockpile of around 70,000 nuclear NATO has rightly responded with a suggestion anywhere in the EU. “outreach” sessions they focused on weapons. For the mitigation and program of political and military reas- But what is the alternative? Wouldn’t the Islamic arc of crisis, on trade and minimization of conflicts the powers surance. NATO’s external borders are the follow-up costs – political, military aid, on the lessons to be learned from are thrown back to persuasion and inviolable and must remain so. And just and financial – of a collapse of Ukraine, the Ebola epidemic. compromise. This means three things. as our NATO partners demonstrated the EU’s biggest eastern neighbor, be But Elmau was an amazingly depoliti- First of all: deal with the world as it their solidarity with West Germany for potentially far greater? cized summit, dealing, as it did, chiefly is instead of dreaming about what it more than four decades, we must now Of course, no such aid project can be with societal problems and issues of should be. Then, while guarding your demonstrate our solidarity with our permitted to let the Ukrainian govern- global governance rather than with interests, leave no stone unturned to Eastern allies. ment off the hook regarding the reform geo-economic, geostrategic and geopo- discover complementary interests that This program needs to be backed agenda, particularly in the area of litical bones of contention. Inevitably, facilitate accommodation. Finally, heed up by a reversal in the downward fighting corruption. On the contrary, Ukraine, Chinese assertiveness, Greece Jean Monnet’s advice – if a problem trend in the defense budgets of many the project would need to be tied to cropped up in informal talks, but offi- seems insoluble, widen the context of

NATO partners. The 2 percent goal clear progress in this area. A kind of cially foreign affairs were relegated to your deliberations. endorsed at the 2014 NATO summit “Troika” in Kiev, including an EU spe- conversations around the dinner table. For the Ukrainian crisis this means in Wales should be taken seriously. cial envoy, could play an important role The mountain in the Bavarian Alps that while it is indeed important to

Equally important are steps towards in this – and in the implementation of went into labor and gave birth to a implement the Minsk II agreement, a more credible and more capable EU the Association Agreement (DCFTA). mouse. The final communiqué is about it is just as crucial to attain a basic security and defense policy. When, if Fifthly, this is about far more than as verbose as all of its predecessors – understanding with Putin on the future not now, has the time come to intro- getting Ukraine back on its financial and probably equally inconsequential. relationship between Moscow and the duce the principle of integration, of Was the outcome worth the effort, the 2000 Suite 335 M Street NW, The Atlantic Times DC, 20036 Washington, synergies, to defense and armaments? continued on page 4 €130 million cost – not to mention the continued on page 2 2 June 2015

The Security Times • Strategy Statue of Lenin outside the parliament building Strong ties in Tiraspol, the capital of Transnistria: "the Russian-protected mini-state between could be squeezed hard by Ukraine…" Germany and the US

SA spying in Germany, quar- Nrels over the trade agreement (TTIP) and (somewhat) oppos- ing views on how to deal with the Ukraine crisis – there is plenty of potential for conflict in US-German relations. However, strong majorities in both countries consider themselves reliable allies. The PEW Research Center and the German Bertels- mann Foundation con- ducted a survey to assess the state of relations between the US and Germany, pub- lished in May. Roughly seven-in-ten Americans consider Ger- many as a reliable ally, about six-in-ten Germans PICTURE ALLIANCE/LANDOV/KIT GILLET have trust in the US. Some 57 percent of Germans say their country’s ties to the US are more important than Harsh realities in Ukraine its ties to Russia (15 per- cent). However, 59 percent of Americans believe the EU Standoff between the West and Russia as Minsk II stalls | By Dmitri Trenin is not tough enough with Russia on Ukraine while our months after the Ukraine aimed at drawing up a control, confronting his admin- which can be implemented: stabi- to play themselves out. The Baltic only 26 percent of Germans Minsk II accords, the new basic law for the country by istration with the risk of deeper lizing the ceasefire; pulling back States and Poland should feel safe: believe the EU should be Ukraine crisis continues to the end of 2015, even if it pro- and more direct US involvement. heavy weapons; and exchanging Russia is not after them. more forceful. These num- simmer, with occasional ceeds, will go on without Donbass. The Kremlin, for its part, having prisoners. This means in practice New crises, however, are pos- bers correlate with the posi- violentF eruptions. The ceasefire in This is a dismal record by any protected the rebel-held enclave much tighter control of the forces sible elsewhere – for example in tions concerning Germany Donbass has not prevented some standard, but compared to the in Donbass, is preparing now to physically confronting each other Transnistria, where the Russian- playing a more active mili- 1,000 people from losing their numerous and highly authorita- sit and watch economic hardship across the line of contact. protected mini-state may be tary role. 54 percent sup- lives since February, adding to the tive recent predictions from Kiev, in Ukraine lead to social tensions Russia, of course, will have to squeezed hard by Ukraine and port the notion in the US, previous fatality count of more picked up in Brussels and Wash- and ultimately to political upheav- support Donbass economically Moldova. In the bigger scheme of while only 25 percent of than 5,000. Some of the heavy ington, of an imminent Russian als overthrowing the Maidan- and financially, but that burden things, Ukraine’s domestic evolu- Germans want their country weapons that both sides should invasion, the situation is less bad installed leadership in Kiev. Freez- will be light compared to the tion will be of prime importance. to assert itself more. have pulled back from the line of than feared by many. Moreover, ing the conflict for now looks like burden that others will have to Will the country finally be able to Germans have a higher contact are still positioned close to the month of May has seen some the best option for both the United carry to support Ukraine and avert reform itself or will the country’s opinion of both Presi- that line, and are active. diplomatic activity between the States and Russia. its meltdown. As for the rest of elites, which have not changed dent Barack Obama and Despite some technical contacts West and Russia, including the A frozen conflict in Donbass Minsk II, the agreement should be much since the Maidan revolu- Chancellor Angela Merkel with the participation of both Kiev visits by German Chancellor is not what the European Union converted into an open-ended dip- tion, use the conflict in Donbass dealing with US-German and Donbass, political dialogue on Angela Merkel to Moscow and lomatic process, which as an excuse not to? relations. 59 percent like the “modalities” of local elections by US Secretary of State John might come in handy Finally, US concerns about Obama, 71 percent agree has not started. Kiev has balked Kerry to Sochi. when and if conditions alleged Russian violations of with Merkel. In the US at issuing pardon and amnesty For the first time in many on the ground change. the Intermediate Range Nuclear only 40 percent approve of to those it still terms “terror- months, Russian President Vladi- Dmitri Trenin is Director Four decades after Forces Treaty (INF) might return Obama’s handling of the ists.” Exchanges of prisoners and mir Putin was engaged face-to-face of the Carnegie Moscow Center. Helsinki and a quar- US missiles to Europe, so that relationship and 38 percent hostages have taken place, but by a senior member of the Obama ter-century after the they can target Russian strategic of Merkel’s role. some are definitely still being held administration. These conversa- fall of the Berlin Wall, assets at close range. Should that

Both countries share a against their will. Some humani- tions, particularly Kerry’s, have CARNEGIE.RU Europe has entered a happen, a new Euromissile crisis rather comfortable view on tarian supplies are managing to provoked speculations about a new period of insecu- will be inevitable. TTIP, 36 percent of Ger- get through to the region but no climb-down from the 15-months- wants. Europe insists on full rity. This is not just one crisis, It may be that things will get mans are not in favor of convoys are allowed to cross the old confrontation between Russia implementation of the Minsk however acute, which can be worse before they get better. If so, an agreement, 21 percent ceasefire lines. “Full restoration and the West over Ukraine. accords. However, it needs to face resolved in short order, so that then rather than thinking about of Americans do not like of social and economic transfers,” This, unfortunately, is wishful up to the harsh realities. Donbass the situation returns to “normal.” some grand architecture for the it. The countries however, including pensions and taxes, has thinking. The most that has been rebels want a confederal status Things will not be fixed quickly. future, it would make more sense disagree in their disagree- not happened. The reality is more achieved in Sochi is a degree of within Ukraine, complete with Behind the Ukraine crisis looms now to think about stepping away ment. In the US, people of a tightening economic blockade. understanding between Washing- a veto on the country’s potential the Russia problem, which despite from the brink. mostly fear job losses and The restoration of Kiev’s control ton and Moscow about the dangers NATO membership. Kiev wants a number of attempts, was not Pathways leading toward safer lower wages (50 percent), of the Ukrainian-Russian border, of allowing the conflict to boil over to crush the rebellion, punish solved by means of the country’s ground include stabilizing the situ- while Germans are chiefly which was supposed to begin right and potentially to widen. Both its leaders and activists, and end inclusion into the Euro-Atlantic ation in Donbass; preventing a concerned with lower food, after the local elections and be the Russians and the Americans Russian interference in Ukraine. security system. new crisis in Transnistria; using auto and environmental completed after the “full politi- sought assurances from the other No compromise between the two Ironically, the problem can confidence-building measures and safety standards (61 per- cal regulation” of the situation in party that they are not pursuing seems possible. Minsk II is defi- hardly be solved by means of Rus- direct lines of communication to cent). Donbass by the end of 2015, has a military solution. The Obama nitely headed for a train wreck. Its sia’s exclusion from the rest of prevent accidents and avoid mis- The two countries have a been blocked by complete lack Administration, focusing on the likely failure, however, must not Europe; this is a recipe for a con- calculation. For the United States, different take on important of progress on the political front. president’s foreign policy legacy, be allowed to lead to a resumption tinued standoff. No “grand bar- Russia is now Europe’s problem to events in US-German rela- There has been no evidence of was also interested in getting Rus- of the large-scale hostilities that gain” between Russia and the West deal with. The Europeans need to tions in the last 75 years. a pullout of foreign forces and sia’s continued cooperation on the we saw last summer and winter. is even conceivable at this point. rise to the challenge and come up 47 percent of Americans weapons and disarmament of ille- Iranian nuclear issue, and possibly To avert looming disaster, the European security is at an impasse. with a strategy of conflict manage- consider World War II gal groups. Russia’s support for also Syria and the Islamic State (IS). parties to the Minsk agreement While no new “end state” of ment, prevention and eventually and the Holocaust to be the “people’s republics” is unwav- The last thing Obama needs is a and the United States need to European security is visible at resolution. Their own security the most important event. ering. Constitutional reform in conflict in Ukraine getting out of focus on those elements of it this time, things will likely have depends on it. n Only 20 percent of Germans think so. The Fall of the continued from page 1 Berlin Wall (34 percent) is will have to get involved in the At the same time, China’s claim not yet given a similar promise, the most important event effort to crush radical jihadism, to about 1 million square kilo- but the risks of confrontation keep in their view. Another 20 The limits amongst them Turkey and Iran, meters in the waters of the South growing. percent of Germans think Saudi Arabia and the rest of the China Sea keeps tensions rising The problem is that no security highly of the Marshall Plan, gulf states. in the region. Many of the islets, architecture exists in the region only 3 percent of Americans of summitry Most consequential in this con- atolls, reefs, shoals and sandbars comparable to the one in Europe. share that view. The moni- West. Clearly Europe and the US alone of attacking NATO – “No text would be a rapprochement inside the “nine-dash line” are Beijing expects the other littoral toring of Angela Merkel’s must ward off further Russian one has to be afraid of Russia.” between Saudi Arabia and Iran, also claimed by Vietnam, Malay- countries to defer to its perspec- cellphone is considered to encroachments – “Thus far and no And he put in a plug for the coop- both currently fueling proxy wars sia, Brunei and the Philippines. tive; yet those countries increas- be an important event by further!” – must be the guideline. eration of the European Union between Sunni and Shia from Beijing has now started to turn ingly seek protection under the 7 percent in the US and 12 President Putin has lied through and his own Eurasian Economic Mesopotamia to Yemen. As seven of these reefs into artificial US umbrella. Creating a platform percent in Germany. his teeth in the face of his West- Union in the vast space between long as their rivalry for regional islands, thereby gaining 1,500 on which the Asian-Pacific nations Equally, 50 percent in the ern interlocutors, no doubt about Lisbon and Vladivostok. He may hegemony runs on unabated, the acres of new land alone this could tackle the region’s problems US and Germany believe that. Still I think that our leaders be lying again, but the West had Middle East will remain a crucible year. It is building runways for would seem to be the first task of their countries should con- should beware of what Edmund better probe his sincerity. Let’s of violence. military aircraft, harbor facili- diplomacy; a security framework, centrate on domestic rather Burke called the “total want of take him at his word. The Asia-Pacific region is a dif- ties for its navy, and according that can establish rules of the than foreign problems. LL consideration of what others natu- In a surprising remark about ferent story again. Under Presi- to some reports has deployed road, a code of conduct for all and rally hope or fear.” arms control, nuclear weapons dent Xi Jinping, Beijing has begun artillery. Already the Chinese ensure compliance to boot. The In an interview that Vladimir proliferation and international to translate its economic weight navy has begun to warn off US Arctic Council provides the model Putin gave to the Italian daily terrorism, Putin called himself an into geopolitical clout. The objec- surveillance planes overflying the of a forum where all coastal states, Corriere della Sera on the eve of “ally” of the United States. Actu- tive of its “One Belt, One Road” Spratly Islands. The escalatory claimants or not, can address the Publisher: Detlef W. Prinz the Elmau summit, he made a ally it is hard to imagine how the initiative is to develop the old potential of these actions – which issues of common concern. Executive Editor: Theo Sommer Editors: Peter H. Koepf, Kevin Lynch, number of statements that should turbulences in the Middle East Silk Road to the Middle East and the Chinese call “fair, reasonable The world would be a better Lutz Lichtenberger be taken seriously. He considers could be ended without Russian Europe and the new “Maritime and lawful” – is quite frighten- place, if true diplomacy would Senior Art Director: Paul M. Kern Layout: Manuel Schwartz, Mike Zastrow Minsk II the only way to resolve support. The West has no promis- Silk Road” to the West into inter- ing. once again replace grandstand- Times Media GmbH the Ukrainian crisis, and he will ing military option in its fight with continental trade routes. Massive In the East China Sea, where ing; if accommodation were Tempelhofer Ufer 23-24 10963 Berlin, Germany do everything in his power to the Islamic State (IS). Contain- Chinese investments in the infra- China claims the Senkaku/ not reflexively be denigrated www.times-media.de influence the “self-proclaimed ment of the threat emanating from structure of the countries along Diaoyutai islands administered by as appeasement; and if foreign [email protected] Phone +49 30-2150-5400 republics Donezk and Lugansk” the violent fragmentation of both these two trade corridors have Japan, the US has already made it policy were driven by hope rather Fax +49 30-2150-5447 – the “separatists,” in Western Syria and Iraq requires Russia’s worrisome ramifications, however clear that it will come to Tokyo’s than fear. As Winston Churchill ISSN 2191-6462 Press deadline: June 12, 2015 parlance. He denies any intention assistance – and not only Russia’s. – for India, but in the longer term aid in case of conflict. Regarding once put it: “Fear must never be to recreate the Soviet empire, let Other regional and global actors also for Russia. the South China Sea, the US has allowed to cast out hope.” n June 2015 3

The Security Times • Strategy

Putin’s game: Russian revanche The Kremlin captain is playing a long game by his own rules: new order or no order By Michael Stürmer Just playing around: Vladimir Putin in an ice hockey game in Sochi, May 16, 2015.

ew order – or no retary of state under US Presi- To ous, failed to curb Russian policy. order: This is how the dent Ronald Reagan, addressed add No further escalation will likely participants of the a meeting of the American Acad- fuel to change the balance. It will only be annual Valdai Club emy in Berlin with a warning the fire in the way of cooperation where meeting,N high above the warm concerning the future of Russia. results both antagonists need it most, breezes of Sochi, were greeted Russia, this seasoned diplomat only in such as non-proliferation, arms by their Russian hosts in late remarked, was like a badly more casu- control, terrorism, drugs, human October last year. It was a note wounded grizzly bear: Strong, alties, more trafficking, organized crime – the reminiscent of the worst days of unpredictable, resentful, and bitterness, and world is still a dangerous place. the Cold War. driven by a long memory. Shultz, more scars diffi- The message to this annual who could never be accused of cult to heal once 3. And where do we go from meeting of diplomats, scholars, having too much sympathy for the hurly-burly here? and ex-spooks from the US and Russia and its rulers, was, like is over. For the The answer concerns both Europe was clear. The Russians Henry Kissinger, a practitioner of time being the fight- methodology and substance. understand the annexation of realpolitik who would not forget ing over the Lugansk The present dual track escala- Crimea and its aftermath as a that Russia is never as strong as and Donetsk regions tion, military and strategic by turning point from weakness to it looks and never as weak, and conforms to the Russian Russia, economic and financial strength, from an American-led that its strategies and policies are doctrine of hybrid or non- by the West, is bound to end in world system to a new competi- inspired by stars different from linear war. This is a war huge losses to both sides, pos- tion for global power, and from those used for guidance in the that Russia cannot lose and sibly catastrophe. cooperation to confrontation West, especially in the US. Ukraine cannot win. The demonization of Putin, whenever it suits the Kremlin. In the misery days of Yeltsin, the As far as the Crimea file Kissinger warns, is only an ersatz Announcing the great alliance early 1990s, educated Russians is concerned, it can only policy. Aiming for regime change with China is their version of the could be heard describing their be added to the long list through economic sanctions US “pivot” to the Pacific. nation’s state of mind in terms of frozen conflicts in against Russia is a fantasy. “It’s Never mind the hardship that of Weimar and Versailles. Russia, IMAGO/ITAR-TASS the world, especially the economy, stupid” – is the Western sanctions inflict on the it seemed, was doomed, the half- around Russia. The American credo, Russia is differ- Russian people at a time of low hearted attempt at democracy man in the Krem- ent. When the oil price recovers oil prices or the strategic brink- associated with poverty and lin has invested – sooner or later this is bound to manship the Russian commander weakness, not much of a so much politi- happen – this will give a tonic to in chief puts on display – Russia future was left for the Russia, weaken the oil-dependent under Vladimir Putin, for better or heirs of the once West and deepen the misery of for worse, has decided to turn the mighty Soviet Ukraine. No time to loose. conflict over Ukraine’s future into Union. Anyone Why not make use of formats a defining moment in the history in a position and institutions that have proven of the world. In an act of global to abandon the their usefulness in overcoming the one-upmanship Putin wants to sinking ship did fault lines of the Cold War, such go back to time-honored rules of in fact leave. as the Helsinki Process or the geopolitics – balance of power, First to depart spheres of influence, compensa- were the Baltic tion for losses incurred – with a states who, after 50 years of occu- controlling stake for Russia. pation, declared independence. ment of NATO while the Russians Georgia’s suicidal excursion cal capital that he is by Putin, as he made unmistakably But that was still only a marginal reminded Western politicians into disputed territory, Russia now the prisoner of his clear in his combative pronounce- loss. The real break up of the that during the “Two plus Four” annexed South Ossetia and own actions. ment in Sochi, broadcast in full Soviet Union happened on the last negotiations on German unity Abkhazia while the West looked The future of the rebel- the next day on Russian state day of that annus horribilis 1991 they were given to understand the other way – preoccupied with regions in the Donbass remains television, is willing to let Russia when all the constituent parts that in the foreseeable future the drawing down its once mighty much more of an open question. OSCE? Conventional arms con- and the Russian people pay the declared independence, notwith- new status quo would not be military wherewithal. If they return under the jurisdic- trol is in urgent need of repair; so price, no matter what. Even more standing their political, financial, challenged. „Not an inch“ – as The shape of things to come was tion of Kiev they will forever be is nuclear arms control in the face so, blaming the new hardship on economic links to what had been Secretary of State James Baker looming large. While the West a thorn in the side of Ukraine, a of proliferators old and new. The the West and Western sanctions the Russian center of power. had assured his Soviet counter- celebrated the outbreak of democ- fifth column, incapacitating any NATO Russia Founding Act is allows him to rally patriotic sup- The most important standard part – would change hands and racy in Georgia and Ukraine, the authority in Kiev. But if they are still on the statute books and can port for his regime at a time of bearer in this exodus was Ukraine, loyalty. Kremlin resented color-revolutions not returned to Ukraine they set be revived and put to good use. austerity. with a fair share of Samuel Hun- Notwithstanding serious dif- and feared contagion, never more an ominous precedent and con- The volume should be lowere, This challenge will not soon tington’s “Clash of Civilizations” ferences, Moscow accepted the so than in 2013 on Kiev’s Maidan firm the Russian claim that the displays of military prowess go away. It will force Western running right across the coun- eastward movement of NATO Square. In a preemptive action, Kremlin is the overlord of any reduced to a symbolic minimum. countries into a new mode of try. Once the Soviet Union was and was compensated through Russia annexed the Crimea penin- former Soviet dominion. A stat- All kinds of grandstanding should realpolitik, a sizeable strengthen- gone, the Warsaw Pact followed the NATO-Russia Founding Act. sula. Even worse than the breach of ute of limited autonomy inside be suspended for the duration of ing of their defenses both military suit. There was neither ability in While the Russians had assumed international law is the violation of Ukraine, and generous help in the the standoff. Self-restraint and and non-military, and a coherent Russia to negotiate a new secu- the Budapest Protocol reconstruction of those provinces face-saving should once again effort, not unlike the policies of rity system, nor any willingness of 1994 and the chal- from he EU as well as Russia, plus be part of the diplomatic tool- containment inaugurated when among the countries coming in lenge to accepted stan- an equitable settlement of energy box, including a sense of his- the World War Two transited into from the cold to ask the Russians Historian Michael Stürmer dards of behavior, all supply looks like the only chance tory, mutual respect and common the Cold War. Much as George for permission. has been chief correspondent the way from military to pacify a war torn region. ground. Backchannels should be F. Kennan, 70 years ago, argued In the West, and especially in of the Berlin-based daily confidence and secu- The EU’s countermeasures of used, wherever there is a chance – Die Welt since 1989. for a patient and firm response Washington, Russia was seen rity building measures choice are economic and financial commercial, cultural, diplomatic. to Soviet expansionism, until one as a basket case. The more than to well-established sanctions directed towards the The present standoff resembles day Soviet policy would mellow, 15,000 nuclear warheads of the rules of civil aviation. stalwarts of Putin’s regime. But the double crisis over Berlin and M. DILGER the time has come to understand Soviet arsenal became the chief while they are effectively hurting Cuba half a century ago. When that the Russian leader is playing object of concern; hundreds that they would have a droit 2. Only bad options the Russian economy, they don’t the nuclear superpowers went to a long game. What is at stake is of them deployed in Ukraine. de regard, something akin to a Ukraine is not a scenario that seem to have any decisive impact the brink, they saw the ashes of not a brief moment of discomfort Nuclear arms control contin- veto over NATO policy, the view would activate Article 5 of the on the powers that be. their own destruction – and con- but a long and strenuous contest ued, up to a point. It took a in Brussels was different. When North Atlantic Treaty. But it has Given the Russian potential for verged in a new balance of power, between the transatlantic way of new, cooperative mode with communication was most needed the potential to split the Western escalation both vertical and hori- arms control and self-restraint. life and the Russian claim to set the Nunn/Lugar amendment over Kosovo and NATO’s war alliance. zontal throughout the ill-defined This time around, the stakes the rules. for joint nuclear deactivation against Serbia in 1999, the tele- Any military solution via “Near Abroad,” the West has are as high as ever. The present In this new situation the questions and, even more importantly, the phone lines fell silent. NATO has been excluded by the resorted to financial and economic crisis may indeed give birth to a to guide future policies are three: Budapest protocol guaranteeing Ever since, while the oil price German chancellor. In contrast, sanctions. Sanctions are measures new steady state. Depending on Ukraine’s territorial integrity in recovered from its historic low the American concept of low between war and peace. There- the West, its negotiating power, • How did we get into the present return for giving up each and throughout the 1990s, Russia level arms supply and deploy- fore, time-honoured Clausewitzian coherence and leadership, a new troubled state of affairs? every nuclear warhead stationed regained negotiating power and ment of military-technical advi- rules should apply, first and fore- order may be found, at best a • What is at stake, and what are on Ukrainian territory – with the the potential to cause trouble. sors leads on a slippery slope. most the imperative to keep strat- rough balance, at worst a mix of the options? notable exception of the Russian- In 2007 Putin, in no uncertain Any such action amounts to war egy under the control of policy. confrontation and cooperation. • And where do we go from here? leased, Ukrainian-owned port of terms, gave notice at the Munich by proxy and, once world power Meanwhile, the problem for the For the time being, we have Sevastopol. Security Conference that the time prestige is at stake, can escalate West is twofold: The level of sanc- to contend with the wisdom of 1. The crisis of our time It seemed that a lasting settle- of weakness was over and that into more substantial military tions was raised as far as EU- Churchill: “I cannot tell you the Some time before the standoff ment on the new map of Eastern the West had better recognize engagement, strategic misun- unity – and economic well-being future of Russia. It is a riddle over Ukraine began and confron- Europe was under way. The West that Russia had serious griev- derstanding and, ultimately, the – would allow, but the impact on inside an enigma shrouded in tation ensued, George Shultz, sec- proceeded with eastern enlarge- ances. Only one year later, after threat of nuclear war. the Russian economy, while seri- mystery.” n 4 June 2015

The Security Times • Strategy The age of “peaceful war” No one wants armed conflict over Crimea. The Ukraine crisis will cool down By Egon Bahr

IMAGO/EST&OST ould the regional con- or an infringement of American if he could speak in the name of G-7 could again become the G-8 with Ukraine itself, which must Frozen conflict: flict in Ukraine become interests. That means he can America – even his outrageous which Helmut Kohl successfully ultimately decide how Orthodox Ukrainian soldiers from the an uncontrolled con- watch as Russia grows weaker insults against the German chan- managed to create. and Roman Catholic Christians 17th tank brigade pose at the entry sign to a frontline village. frontation between with every passing moment – as cellor did not lead to any change There can be no resolution can live side by side with all its CEast and West? Anyone following long as international energy prices of US foreign policy towards con- without the two big powers. At citizens feeling at home with their for us to globalize these two what our leading politicians say remain low. frontation with Putin. Nor did the same time, Obama is passing faith and their country. examples. The sooner the West cannot rule that out. However, I Putin can also wait as Obama Vice-President Joe Biden’s visit to more responsibility on to Europe, The government in Kiev will gets used to the idea, the better do not share this fear. grows weaker with every passing Kiev alter Washington’s caution; removing some of the burden have to have a say in the decid- that will serve a stable world The reason for this is the double moment and no possible White yet he did manage to establish a from his own country and trans- ing of all the other issues as well. order – because a majority of hope that on the one hand, German House successor commits to a cabinet there whose Prime Min- ferring it to the economically and In the phase of peaceful war, countries and parts of the world politicians are doing all they can to specific policy. This is what I call ister Arseniy Yatsenyuk is known politically strongest country in the that means – no membership lives with other values than ours prevent it – although they know a peaceful war. as “our yank.” middle of Europe. of NATO, and for the customs and expects that this be respected. that the power to decide does Peaceful war also works when With the growing realization Germany feels the effects the union with Russia there must be Brandt once said that the peace- not rest with them; and on the it comes to sanctions. Sanctions that security for Ukraine can only most and America the least when agreement on its association with ful future of Europe cannot be other hand, Presidents Barack were originally meant to be a be achieved with Russia and not trade with Russia is curbed. The the EU. These negotiations are allowed to be hindered by Ger- Obama and Vladimir Putin do mild warning, a response to the against it comes the third exam- US would even benefit if our eco- already under way. many’s past. Today, that means not want to wage war against one annexation of Crimea, which ple of peaceful war – the status nomic ties wither and negatively The annexation of Crimea was Germany must contribute ideas another. They know that their could not be ignored. Putin was quo for a trouble spot undoubtedly a breach of exist- on a dialogue with Putin. Where collaboration is needed for deal- not meant to take them too seri- which no one wants to ing agreements. But – analogue do we want to go? Where does he Egon Bahr was a minister without ing with many geo-strategic prob- ously. But now they have become descend into an uncon- portfolio in the government of to the definition used by Willy want to go? What order is to be lems – from the Mideast, to Iraq an instrument that comes with the trolled confrontation. Chancellor Willy Brandt from Brandt in his first government replaced by peaceful war? Can the and Iran, Afghanistan, the Inter- threat of increasing them if Putin The same analysis 1972 to 1974. He played a key role declaration – we could speak of sovereignty of states be reconciled national Space Station and, not fails to revisit his Crimea policy. holds true when we in shaping the “change through respecting without recognizing it with respect for the differences rapprochement” approach to East least, the fight against the “Islamic How far should sanctions be look at the East-West Germany and Eastern Europe that under international law. Brandt’s in their internal workings? That State.” If their tacit agreement taken? Up to the threat of force? relationship. When came to be known as “Ostpolitik”. “respect” covered the entire could open up perspectives for a stopped working, global politics Certainly not that far. That would Putin feels uncomfort- policy of conciliation between sphere extending from Lisbon to CHRISTIAN KRUPPA would become unpredictable for not be in the interests of Washing- able because NATO East and West Germany with the Vladivostok as a realistic aim – everyone, including Europe and ton or Moscow in their geostra- is moving closer to Russia’s affect the political relationship. negotiation and passing of many one that would take into account Germany. tegic collaboration. Their silent borders, America can reassure German policy has no choice but bilateral and multilateral deals. the interests of America and I therefore assume that there agreement of “no war between him – the Baltic States received to ensure that, along with main- No one will be hurt if the situation China as well. will be no open war. Yet this us” includes Crimea. No voice security guarantees when they taining the essential good relations in Crimea is “respected” in this The meeting between John relief, great though it is, is subject which carries any weight in the joined NATO, but they did not with America, ties with obstinate way – without deadlines. Kerry and Vladimir Putin in Sochi to limitations. world is willing to fight Russia to get any weapons which could Russia are kept up – so that the In this kind of situation, very has once more underlined the Obama has declared that Russia get back Crimea. That means the be used to threaten Russia. Ger- prospects for overall European different personalities urged reality – a stable peace in Europe is merely a regional power. That is war will not happen and the con- many delivered artillery pieces; stability are not shattered. maintenance of ties with Russia needs Moscow and Washington. totally unacceptable to Putin, who flict will be frozen – yet another that is not exactly going to make The refusal to send German – Kohl and Kissinger, Schmidt n must and will prove that a stable example of peaceful war. Russia shiver with fear. And for arms to Kiev is in line with that, and Gorbachev. solution for Ukraine cannot be Would it be worth a war to get confirmation, a link was forged as are the efforts by Chancellor Dealing with the current situ- This article is an extract obtained without him and cannot Ukraine into NATO? Again, of between the military on both Angela Merkel and Foreign Min- ation requires respect for states, from a speech made be implemented against Russia’s course not. Because stability and sides – which can carry on the ister Frank-Walter Steinmeier to which in the West’s view are not by Egon Bahr at the launch will. security for Ukraine can only be work the Nato-Russia Council realize the agreements of Minsk II democracies, as well as the respect in Berlin of a book Obama’s doctrine is: “We will achieved with Russia and not was once meant to do, namely by the end of this year. Then nego- that each state decides on its own by Winfried Scharnagl: engage, but we preserve all our against it. keep a finger on the other’s pulse tiations for a stable Ukraine could internal order. That is already “Am Abgrund. capabilities.” He will only deploy When Senator John McCain so as to avoid misunderstandings begin – with Germany, France reality in our relations with China Streitschrift für einen anderen US forces in case of an attack raised expectations in Kiev – as and nasty surprises. Maybe the and the OEDC taking part, along and Saudi Arabia. But it is hard Umgang mit Russland.”

continued from page 1 political purpose. We have to read Thirdly, we need an exit strat- Fourthly, we need a collective which works under the most dif- the riot act to both sides. egy from the politically unhelpful effort by all OSCE members – ficult conditions. What could be With or Secondly, the dispute over exclusion of Russia from the G-8. including Russia – to search for more obvious than to build on Ukraine’s prospects of joining Given the annexation of Crimea, ways to strengthen Europe’s secu- the multilateral framework of the NATO must be settled once and the exclusion cannot be reversed rity architecture. Conventional OSCE – the three “baskets” of without Russia for all, in Ukraine’s own interests. in the short to mid-term without a and nuclear arms control must be the Helsinki Accords – in order feet – it is also about the coun- here, for instance, by allowing To be honest, the question of loss of face for the West. One pos- put back on the agenda as well as to bring security and cooperation try’s civil society. In this greatest visa-free travel, creating more NATO membership for Ukraine sible way out could be to turn he crisis prevention and confidence- to the fore in Europe in the wake security crisis since the collapse grants for Ukrainian students, was essentially answered in the 5 plus 1 format – used for nego- building measures. There can be of the Ukraine disaster? of the Soviet Union, the EU can and by supporting NGOs in the negative long ago. Only the gov- tiations with Iran – into a much no place in Europe for military It was not impossible to get demonstrate the power of the country. ernment in Kiev is still clinging broader platform with Russia, saber-rattling, given the ever- a diplomatic, political process European canon of values. We That is one side of the dual onto the idea. Now, a courageous which could address all kinds of present nuclear threat. Both sides going even during the Cold War. owe it to the young generation strategy – reassurance by NATO step is needed which only Kiev global and regional issues, such should be interested in reducing We should propose to Moscow of Ukrainians who protested partners and comprehensive can take. as Ukraine and Syria. risks of miscalculation and esca- to restart such a diplomatic pro- on Maidan Square not against help for, and cooperation with, The EU could tie the compre- That would have the additional lation by accepting restraints on cess. An OSCE conference should, Russia, but against a corrupt Ukraine. The other side of the hensive aid package proposed benefit of making Washington military overflights and related however, not be allowed to under- Ukrainian elite, which was rob- strategy should focus more on above to expectations that a full partner again in crisis activities. And visions of strate- mine the Helsinki principles or the bing the country’s youth of its Russia. Ukraine begin to more strongly management efforts regarding gic economic cooperation also Paris Charter. It should be about chance at a European future. Firstly, the sanctions must define itself as a bridge between Ukraine. Currently, the US is deserve attention, harking back whether we can work together to These people – young journal- remain in place – as far as and as East and West – rather as Finland, neither represented in the Nor- to old ideas of an economic zone reaffirm and reinforce European ists reporting on fraud, junior long as Moscow and the separat- Austria, and even Switzerland mandy format nor in the Tri- “from Lisbon to Vladivostok.” security principles and where nec- politicians fighting nepotism, ists fail to comply comprehen- have done in the past. Of course lateral Contact Group of the And finally, the OSCE – which essary, to add to them. Then it is NGOs promoting understand- sively with the Minsk Protocol. only Ukrainians themselves can Organization for Security and had almost been pronounced dead up to Moscow to say yes or no ing and reconciliation between But obviously Kiev must also decide to embark on such a course Co-operation in Europe (OSCE). – has demonstrated its unique – and perhaps, if the answer is the ethnic groups – are the hope throw its full weight into the – towards an independent, self- That is not in Ukraine’s inter- usefulness in the crisis, particu- no, to risk further isolating itself for a better Ukraine, a European implementation of the Minsk deal determined Ukraine with links to est – nor in the well-understood larly with its Special Monitor- among the 57 participating states Ukraine. The EU can do far more or the sanctions will lose their the West and the East. interests of the EU. ing Mission to Ukraine (SMM), in the OSCE. n June 2015 5

The Security Times • Strategy ECONOMY The new battlefield of geopolitics Sanctions are the new drones – they have the grammar of commerce but the logic of war | By Mark Leonard

n the nuclear talks with Iran, rise of geo-economics – a contest erlands, Spain, Japan, the OAU together of regions concentrated and European central banks are earths market to punish Japa- the timing of when and how defined by the “grammar of com- and ECOWAS, Mercosur, and around large powers, in particular pursuing quantitative easing, and nese companies for their national to lift the economic and finan- merce but the logic of war” – that Turkey. the EU, US, Russia and China. more and more industry sectors government’s stance on territorial cial sanctions has emerged as risks unraveling the global system In part this is a consequence A surge of regional and bilateral – from yoghurt production to IT issues in the East China Sea. Ithe main sticking point. The fact and its institutions. of the increased sophistication trade talks can be observed across – are being declared ‘strategic’ and More recently, some analysts that sanctions have played the star- Those who believed that geopol- of sanctions. Sanctions used to the world. Russia is promoting the their businesses protected. have claimed that Saudi Arabia’s ring role in these negotiations will itics was dead, that major powers be broad, aimed at the popula- Eurasian Economic Union in its Fourth, new alliances are being decision to keep the oil price low not surprise any observers of recent would rather do business than tion, which was expected to revolt ‘near-abroad’ and China pushes forged through and around infra- was as much a geopolitical deci- US foreign policy. For the Obama fight each other, will be disap- against their government. Modern for the Regional Comprehensive structure projects. Where classi- sion as an economical one. Com- administration, sanctions are the pointed. Geopolitics is not dead, Economic Partnership cal Western alliances were built modities used to be considered a new drones – offering devastatingly it only changed the battlefield – for and against the rival around trade, the removal of trade stable store of value during times effective but surgical interventions today’s strategists and diplomats Mark Leonard is Director US Trans-Pacific Part- barriers and international law, of broader economic uncertainty without running the risk of having choosing their weapon of choice: of the European Council nership. Smaller states China is developing infrastructure – they aren’t anymore. The new on Foreign Relations to send in ground troops. ‘It’s the economy, stupid!’ and one of the authors of the find themselves in the finance projects as a major foreign economic reality is one of com- However, the long-term legacy Five trends are challenging glo- “EUROPEAN FOREIGN POLICY middle of this, forced to policy tool. In late 2013, Chinese modity price volatility – this is of Western sanctions goes beyond balization: SCORECARD 2012” choose between com- President Xi Jinping announced universally bad economic news. the question of Iran’s nuclear pro- First, the outbreak of economic (www.ecfr.eu) peting great powers’ the “One Belt, One Road” proj- These five trends pose real chal- gram. The proliferation of the use warfare. There is as much talk PRIVATE spheres of influence. ect that will link China to Bang- lenges to globalization, and risk of sanctions poses bigger ques- in Western capitals today about These new types of kok and Budapest (the ‘belt’) and to eventually unravel the global tions about the global economic sanctions policy as about trade sanctions are “smart” – they target regionalism often strengthen develop the Eurasian coast (the economic system that developed system. As liberals predicted, – towards Iran, towards Russia specific individuals, groups or major regional powers at the maritime ‘road’). This is just one after the Cold War. Economics globalization allowed states to towards Syria, sanctions are the companies. Treasuries and for- expense of the periphery. example of the type of infrastruc- is not simply about growth and come together. But the growing order of the hour. With every eign offices around the world are Third, we are witnessing the rise ture projects aimed at expanding unemployment anymore. It has interdependence created by glo- year after the Cold War, there working on ever-more sophisti- of state capitalism. Even before China’s access to raw materials become a core foreign policy tool. balization has also provided states have been more. Between 1990 cated financial instruments. the global economic crisis, China’s and export markets. But when governments use it too with the tools to compete more and 2007 alone, economic sanc- The second development chal- economic success story led many Globalization also faces a chal- much, they could make the system effectively – by manipulating their tions were used by the US, Greece, lenging the current order is the to question the liberal economic lenge from the manipulation of seem unreliable and treacherous dependence on one another. Russia, the UN and EU, China, geopoliticisation of trade. Rather consensus. With the crisis, the commodity prices. The world and thus encourage other powers In fact, the ever-growing use Germany, Belgium, France, than creating a single global state has returned as a major was shocked when China used to hedge against it, which would of sanctions is an example of the Saudi Arabia, England, the Neth- market, we are seeing the coming player in economic affairs. US its dominant position in the rare further undermine the system. n

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The Security Times • Strategy

Economic sanctions Blocking trade does not only damage Russia’s economy. hurt The Ukraine crisis should be solved by diplomacy everyone By Eckhard Cordes

he conflict over the of the EU Eastern Partnership future of Ukraine has initiative – targeted at six former become a major focus republics of the Soviet Union – in for the German busi- 2008. nessT community’s Committee on - The European Union over Eastern European Economic Rela- looked that Moscow sees a direct tions. The committee has orga- line from planned EU association nized many talks and conferences agreements with some of the East- in Ukraine, Russia and Germany ern Partnership countries, to EU over the past 18 months of this membership and NATO integra- ongoing crisis. It has become clear tion. Moscow considers NATO that the conflict did not begin membership a direct threat to Rus- in Kiev or in Crimea. It is the sian national security. consequence of a profound loss The EU should have built up of trust between Russia and the trust, acted more transparently West that began over ten years with regard to the program and ago. Both sides have grounds to goals of the Eastern Partnership self-critically examine the causes and taken Russian misgivings into of that breakdown. consideration and dispelled them When the European Union at an early stage. It is important to enlarged by ten countries in 2004, do this now, in retrospect. expanding its borders to meet the The agreements aimed at calm- western border of Russia, Moscow ing eastern Ukraine that were con- accepted it. The new proximity cluded in Minsk on Feb. 12, 2015 would generate immense oppor- include trilateral talks between the tunities that were obvious for EU, Russia and Ukraine. Energy both sides. The EU’s new eastern issues and airing Russian mis- border was not intended to be a givings about the EU free trade dividing line. Instead, it was to treaty with Ukraine will be on become more and more permeable the agenda. It would make sense for people and goods. to institutionalize this meeting We experienced a phase of between the EU, Russia and the annual two-digit trade growth and Eastern Partnership countries as constant growth in investment. a forum for solving crises and in The people of the EU, Russia general, preventing them. and the neighboring countries in All the countries in the Eastern Eastern Europe, the Caucasus and Partnership, including Ukraine, Central Asia all benefited. At the have one thing in common: it end of 2003, a joint EU-Russian is not only rational for them to task force presented a concept maintain relationships with both for creating a common European the EU and Russia, but is also one economic region at a summit in of the only options for stabilizing Rome. Since then, the concept is the countries torn by inner ten- waiting to be implemented. sion. This is why there should not Now, in 2015, that goal of cre- be an either-or decision between ating a common economic region integration into the EU market seems like an idea from a com- or membership in the Eurasian pletely different era. The speed Economic Union. An EU associa- with which the two economic tion agreement with Ukraine can blocks are “demerging” is breath- only be successful if Ukraine does taking. Mutual economic sanc- STOCK&PEOPLE IMAGO not lose the important Russian tions are accelerating the process. Korea, Taiwan and Switzerland larger than the total area of the We Germans are still heard in government and the separatists – market as a result. And this is In 2014 alone, bilateral trade have filled the gaps. Last summer, European Union. With each sev- Moscow. The Minsk II agreement, that have a significant impact on why the German business com- between Russia and Germany Russia and China finally shook ered business contact and each which came about due to the per- its success. And the EU no longer munity’s Committee on Eastern shrank by €6.5 billion and in the hands on the comprehensive gas investment not made, the potential sonal commitment of German has the opportunity to initiate European Economic Relations first few months of 2015, there deal they had been unsuccess- for German and European influ- Chancellor Angela Merkel and a positive stimulus in the peace has long called for direct talks was another dramatic decline of fully negotiating for the past ten ence shrinks. Foreign Minister Frank-Walter process by revoking the sanctions between the Eurasian Economic 35 percent. Companies are putting years. In May of this year, it was Without Russia, it will be dif- Steinmeier, has opened up the step by step. Union and the European Com- their investments on ice and the announced that Chinese banks ficult to develop a secure, pros- prospect of a peaceful solution. On the other hand, the EU Com- mission on joint trade standards, labor market is losing jobs because plan to support Russian compa- pering Europe. Against Russia, it And there are signs that the mission is now in the process of certification regulations, and cus- of uncertainty over the future. nies cut off from the capital mar- will be practically impossible. But German government’s diplomatic critically reviewing its own strat- toms regulations. The economically weaker coun- kets by the Western sanctions with Russia in turn needs the West as a tenacity is bearing further fruit. egy with regard to Eastern Europe Unfortunately, there is no politi- tries in Eastern Europe and Cen- loans of up to $25 billion. Siemens The battles in the east- and Russia. This is a positive cal contact between the two insti- tral Asia are suffering most. But has been working for years to ern part of Ukraine are result. The consultation mecha- tutions at this time. However, specialized medium-sized com- try and land the order for the still going on, but their nism on this point was initiated in February they again anchored panies in Germany are also in Moscow-Kazan high-speed train, Eckhard Cordes is the chairman number has declined in March. Policy papers issued by the “vision of a joint humanitar- danger. According to a current but Chinese companies are now of the German Committee significantly. The lives EU Commissioner for European on Eastern European ian and economic region from Federation of German Industries realizing the project. These are Economic Relations, of many people have Neighborhood Policy Johannes the Atlantic to the Pacific” in the (BDI) and Deutsche Bank survey only three striking examples of representing German business. been saved. And now Hahn and EU foreign policy chief ancillary agreements to the Minsk of 400 major German family-run a trend that could lead to a long- that four joint task Federica Mogherini point in the protocol. The German chancellor businesses, 57 percent fear con- term change in the economic – and forces on the subjects right direction. has emphasized this vision several OSTAUSSCHUSS tinued negative consequences as a therefore, political – architecture. of security, the politi- I have two key thoughts on the times, most recently during her result of the Ukraine crisis. The German economy, the partner to achieve stable economic cal process, humanitarian issues subject: visit to Moscow on May 10. We In the eyes of the Western world, approximately 6,000 German development. and economic development have 1. Russia is a geopolitical factor. hope that the debate on this sub- Russia has committed a breach companies that have invested more Germany bears a historical been set up, there are bodies in It must be integrated into the ject will finally take off. of international law by annexing than $20 billion in Russia, did not responsibility to ensure that this which the conflicting parties can European Neighborhood Policy. Ongoing talks are the only Crimea. Will economic sanctions cause the political crisis that is cur- necessary partnership is (once iron out their differences over 2. The vision of a joint economic means of emerging from the and cancelling established dialog rently taking on dramatic propor- again) recognized by the EU as how to implement the Minsk region from Lisbon to Vladivo- current political and economic formats really bring us closer tions. Over the past ten to 15 years well as Russia. At the height of the protocol. stok must be revived. The first step conflict and crisis mode. We do to a solution to the conflict and many have invested private capital Ukraine crisis, Berlin comprehen- Whether it was wise of the EU in that direction must be prepared everything we can to support render the Russian government in this market. These companies sively lived up to that special role to rule out lifting the sanctions in joint discussion between the this effort from the side of the more ready to compromise? Cur- are rightly demanding that the – for which the German business until Minsk II has been completely European and Eurasian economic German economy and we all rent experience shows there is no political problems be solved by community is very grateful. implemented is certainly open to commissions. know that this process of com- unambiguous answer. diplomatic means and not at the The Normandy format negotia- debate. On the one hand, imple- Russia considered the NATO munication and reconciliation While EU exports to Russia expense of their work. tions in Minsk in February 2015 menting the agreements does not accession of several Eastern Euro- will take time. But everyone are dropping disproportionately, Russia’s total land area, includ- showed that it pays to stubbornly only depend on Russia. There are pean countries a direct geopoliti- knows that every journey begins countries such as China, South ing the Asian part, is four times remain on the path of diplomacy. two other parties – the Ukrainian cal challenge. More so, the launch with the first step. n June 2015 7 Europe in aThe new Security Times • Strategy security environment War in Europe's backyard: Instability in the neighborhood requires a comprehensive A Syrian army fighter jet flies over the Arbin district and more flexible approach by the EU | By Sebastian Kurz of Damascus on May 12, 2015.

PICTURE ALLIANCE/ANADOLU AGENCY/MUHAMMED ALA ur security environ- demonstrated how complex and The most visible manifestation new challenges and opportunities Iraq. We therefore have to fight the Europe. Russia has violated inter- ment has drastically interconnected many of these of CSDP are the EU civilian and arising for the Union. IS barbarians by all means. national law and shaken Europe’s changed over the last challenges and crises are. They military crisis management mis- The assumption is that the EU This must encompass military post-World War II order. The decade. Back then therefore require a comprehensive sions and operations deployed is faced with a changing global actions such as currently under- EU has sent a strong and unified Omost international security policy and more flexible approach by around the globe. The EU has environment in a more connected, taken by the international coali- message by imposing sanctions. actors had only started to address the EU in order to effectively deal launched so far more than 35 but also more contested and more tion against IS, political measures From the very beginning, Aus- “newly emerging”, “unconven- with them. The pace at which our missions and operations, 16 of complex world. It is more than to support policies of national rec- tria – together with its European tional” or “asymmetric” security world is changing and security which are currently operational likely that the EU and its member onciliation and democratization, partners – has also emphasized threats in their respective doctrines challenges are emerging is likely in the Western Balkans, Eastern states will have to further con- financial measures to dry up their dialogue and de-escalation. We and strategies. The European to accelerate even further. Europe, the Caucasus, the Middle nect and pool their security and sources of revenue as well as police cannot wish away the strategic Security Strategy (ESS) of 2003 We should also come to terms East, Africa and Asia, where two foreign policy efforts in order to measures to stop further foreign challenges of Russian aggression; lists terrorism, the proliferation with the fact that some develop- are about to be launched. Two protect European values and the terrorist fighters from joining their at the same time we need a long of weapons of mass destruction, ments can just not be predicted. thirds of these activities are civilian European way of life. ranks. Preventive measures and term vision of cooperation in regional conflicts and/or state The ESS emphasized in 2003 crisis management missions. Over Migration towards Europe is close cooperation with Muslim order not to create new dividing failure with global repercussions, that “no single country is able to the past years, the EU has clearly accelerating dramatically as a communities in our countries as lines in Europe. and organized crime, as the main tackle today’s complex problems assumed more and more respon- result of conflicts, economic dis- well as with Muslim countries also In particular the OSCE plays challenges. on its own.” I would also like sibilities in its neighborhood and parity, demography and climate play a very important role in this an important role in Ukraine by But nobody in 2003 could to point out that the EU cannot beyond. change. The planned CSDP mis- regard to further underline that monitoring military groups and have possibly foreseen the dras- tackle today’s problems on its Since 2013 the EU has carried sion in the Mediterranean to this is a fight against barbarism by being a member of the con- tic changes, which have in the own. It needs strong and effective out several far-reaching and not against any religion. tact group where separatists and meantime emerged in the Euro- partnerships with other regional reviews of its role as We must also continue to sup- Ukrainian government officials pean neighborhood. Since I took and international organizations international and secu- port the UN-led mediation efforts can hold discussions. The OSCE office in late 2013 we have seen such as the OSCE or the United rity actor. in Libya and at a later stage live should continue to play a decisive Sebastian Kurz is Austria’s various crises unfold in parallel: Nations. As for CSDP, there is Federal Minister for Europe, up to our words when it comes to role in the implementation of the in Ukraine, Russia has annexed The EU is assuming a growing awareness of the need Integration and Foreign Affairs. supporting a possible Libyan gov- Minsk agreement. Crimea and has become involved role in international security. Its to plan and deploy the ernment of national unity, further Countries like Ukraine, Moldova in the military conflict with sepa- main instrument in this respect is right civilian and mili- strengthen good governance in or Georgia must not be pushed ratists in the east of Ukraine; in the Common Security and Defense tary assets more rap- WIKIPEDIA/ MAHMOUD-ASHRAF all the countries of the Southern anymore to decide between either the Middle East the civil war in Policy (CSDP), which was initiated idly and effectively, the Neighborhood, for example by the EU or the Eurasian Union. We Syria has further worsened and roughly 15 years ago. The EU need to improve the EU rapid fight and disrupt the networks of applying the “more for more” must rather find ways and means the Islamic State (IS) is shocking launched its first CSDP mission in response capabilities, including human smugglers is an important principle, and increase the living to enable good relations with the the world by its sheer brutality Bosnia and Herzegovina in 2003. through more flexible and deploy- step in the right direction. Human conditions in the countries of Eurasian Union and the European and swift military advancement; In the Lisbon Treaty, CSDP is able battlegroups, to improve the traffickers profit from other peo- origin through European devel- Union. the civil war in Libya has fully defined as an integral part of the financial management of missions ples’ misery and have on many opment cooperation. A policy of small steps to build broken out thereby further aggra- Common Foreign and Security and operations, as well as of the occasions shown a blatant disre- Instability in the Southern confidence, avoid military con- vating the dramatic refugee crisis Policy (CFSP). CSDP “shall pro- procedures for supporting civilian spect for the very values the EU Neighborhood affects us directly frontation and thereby strengthen in the Mediterranean and creating vide the Union with an opera- missions in particular. is standing for, first and foremost and Europe cannot afford to turn Europe’s collective security should a vacuum which IS is currently tional capacity drawing on civilian With regard to its Neighbor- human dignity. We must therefore a blind eye to negative develop- be pursued. The Austrian Chair- beginning to fill; in Africa we and military assets.” The EU may hood Policy, the EU is also under- not just content ourselves with ments there. We therefore have manship of the OSCE in 2017 will are faced with numerous crises use them on missions outside the going a review process in order addressing the symptoms of the to make wise use of the full range offer an important opportunity such as in Mali, the Central Afri- Union for peacekeeping, conflict to provide more tailor-made and refugee crisis, but also address its of tools the EU currently has at in this regard to contribute to can Republic or the outbreak of prevention and strengthening more flexible support to the coun- manifold root causes. its disposal. fostering Europe’s security and Ebola. international security in accor- tries in its east and south. And on Hundreds of thousands have fled Developments in Europe’s East- solving pending conflicts through 2014 and 2015 were particu- dance with the principles of the a more global and general level, and are still fleeing from the hor- ern Neighborhood are equally dialogue and confidence-building larly challenging years and have United Nations Charter. the EU is currently assessing the rors IS is inflicting on Syria and worrisome and challenging for measures. n

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8 June 2015

The Security Times • Strategy Europe needs NATO’s comeback The changes in the European security landscape a defense call for a new defense concept | By Michael Rühle s a “bad” Russia “good” for create a semi-permanence that provides of hybrid (“non-linear”) warfare: the NATO? Many observers seem those Allies with an entirely new level of rapid concentration of regular forces at to think so. Since Russia illegally military protection. Ukraine’s border, the employment of union annexed Crimea and started to However, implementing the RAP is unmarked special forces on Crimea, sup- Idestabilize Eastern Ukraine, one can expensive: keeping forces on high alert, port for separatists in Eastern Ukraine, The EU has the money and the men – what it read about NATO’s alleged “rejuvena- conducting more frequent exercises, an increase in the gas price and a mas- tion,” “revival” or new-found sense of and building new support structures sive propaganda campaign that sought lacks is effectiveness | By Hans-Peter Bartels purpose as a collective defense frame- will create considerable financial bur- to obscure the events on the ground. work. dens. Politically, as well, the RAP has This kind of warfare cannot be deterred et’s state clearly what the which has prevented us from becoming If only it were so easy. Stalin may its share of challenges. Several NATO merely by the threat of force. problem is. We don’t need any more effective in Europe for a long indeed have helped the creation of allies in Central and Eastern Europe are Hence, NATO has started to review diplomatic phrases or politi- time. It is “no duplication of capabili- the Alliance, but it is far from certain likely to push for more “permanence” in its intelligence-sharing and is now exam- cal catchwords: The Common ties.” That may sound like a smart way whether Putin’s policies will have a simi- deployed NATO units on their soil than ining how to adapt its political decision- SecurityL and Defence Policy (CSDP), to save money, but this very dictate lar effect. Russia is not the Soviet Union, initially foreseen. At the same time, allies taking processes to ambiguous warning which we have relied upon to date, is has prevented us from becoming more nor can NATO afford to turn a blind in NATO’s Southern Region will insist situations, for example by pre-delegat- the weakest link in European integra- effective. What it means is this: No EU eye to an increasingly volatile security that the Alliance’s defensive measures be ing the authority to initiate certain crisis tion. The Lisbon Treaty demands far military headquarters. And that means landscape around and beyond Europe’s balanced and not focus exclusively on a response measures to the Supreme Allied more and allows far more joint defense. – when it comes to defense – NATO is periphery. In short, despite the Russia potential threat from the east. Commander Europe (SACEUR). Other Sometimes you need a crisis to make everything and the EU is nothing, or at challenge, the Alliance cannot simply The RAP reflects the reaffirmation of elements are an increased emphasis real progress. We now have a crisis most, a subordinate helper. return to the well-established patterns the logic of deterrence and reassurance: on cyber defense, strategic communi- in Eastern Europe – in Russia and The United States heads NATO in of Cold War-type territorial defense. As rather than offering mere promises of cations, and cooperation with other Ukraine. And Brussels, run globalization continues, circling the institutions. Enhancing the ties between a crisis to the by a four-star wagons will not be enough. NATO and the EU offers the greatest southeast – the Hans-Peter Bartels, general. At the NATO’s initial reflexes after Rus- synergies in this regard. a former Member of the Bundestag jihadist totali- same time, the sia’s incursion into Ukraine were Michael Rühle is Head of the With respect to Russia, NATO for the Social Democratic Party, Energy Security Section in NATO’s tarianism of the and Chairman of its US has its own eminently sound: Allies, notably Emerging Security Challenges remains in a “wait-and-see” mode: Rus- Islamic State in Defense Commitee, military head- the United States, quickly enhanced sia’s continuing denial to be a warring is the new Parliamentary Division. The views expressed Syria and Iraq. Commissioner quarters for all their military presence in Central are his own. party in the Ukraine crisis allows for And a crisis to for the Armed Forces. the US forces in and Eastern Europe in order to nothing more than a minimalist (and the south – the Europe. demonstrate NATO’s political and rather terse) dialogue. While Russia’s PRIVATE PRIVATE legacy of the These head- military solidarity with its most assertive behavior is not likely to change Arab Spring, not just in Libya. quarters are in Europe, in Germany exposed member states. Cooperation support, NATO is now moving to pro- anytime soon, the need for the West And we all have the same money – more specifically, in Stuttgart. They with Russia was suspended, but oppor- tect its geographically exposed member and Russia to have a more comprehen- problem – no EU state really wants to are called USEUCOM. Is that a dupli- tunities for high-level political dialogue states through concrete defense plans sive discussion about European security spend more on its military. And many cation of capabilities? No, it is just as remained. and tangible military arrangements. remains as urgent as ever. can’t – they cannot take out more debt. sensible to have US headquarters for the The Wales Summit in September This resurrection of deterrence will also One reason is NATO’s crisis manage- For this reason, the European Union United States in Europe as it is to have 2014 produced a “Readiness Action have to encompass the nuclear domain. ment role: as a permanent member of must become much more effective in EU headquarters for Europe in Europe. Plan,” comprising a package of mea- In light of Russian nuclear threats the UN Security Council, Russia can the area of defense. The 28 EU nations Because we don’t have any such head- sures aimed at enhancing the ability and the vigorous modernization of its veto NATO’s stabilization missions. spend €190 billion on defense all told. quarters, we prefer not to acknowl- of NATO forces to quickly deploy to nuclear forces, the Allies will have to Another reason is the European archi- That is a lot of money, three times edge and eliminate all the duplications the boundaries of the Alliance, be it examine the implications of these devel- tecture: It is obvious that the initial what Russia, for example, spends on its of capabilities in our 28 EU member in a crisis at NATO’s East or South. opments for their own nuclear policy post-Cold War approach of enlarging military. But we don’t spend the money states. This gives rise to the following Allies also underscored their continued and posture. This exercise will require established Western institutions while effectively enough – not in any of the six requirements. cooperation with partner countries and member states to demonstrate much at the same time building a special 28 member states. First: We need our other organizations, bringing home that intellectual discipline, lest they risk a relationship with Russia is no longer All together, the EU member states own military EU head- the end of ISAF in Afghanistan means replay of past controversies. an option, as it always depended on have 1.5 million soldiers – many more quarters in Europe (as neither the end of partnership nor of Some may welcome the re-emphasis Russian acquiescence if not full accep- than, say, the United States. But is this suggested by Gerhard expeditionary engagements. Finally, on collective defense as a convenient tance. At the same time, no alternative gigantic, 1.5 million-strong army actu- Schröder and Jean- Allies also pledged to increase their excuse for lowering their “expedition- structure appears feasible. Given Rus- ally visible anywhere? Do we really Claude Juncker as defence budgets with a view to reaching ary” ambitions, yet the need to address sia’s opposition to the enlargement of believe that we are that strong? Do far back as 2003), in 2 percent of their GDP. contingencies at Europe’s periphery and NATO and the EU into its “zone of others believe that we are unbeatably Brussels! Now. Anyone The challenge now is to translate beyond will not vanish with the end of privileged interests” (Dmitri Medvedev) strong? The honest answer is – not who wants to join is in. these initial steps into concrete, longer- ISAF. The US-led coalition against the the West will have to seek a formula really. Second: We need a term policies. If successful, NATO will Islamic State (IS) indicates as much: that takes legitimate Russian interests Does that mean we need more sol- defense commissioner become a much more agile Alliance: Although not acting in a NATO frame- into account without relegating certain diers? No. Does it mean we need more in the European Com- with more military muscle, more rapid work, many Allies are part of that coali- NATO and EU aspirants to a zone of money? No. What we need is effective- mission, by 2019 at the decision taking, and with even closer tion, conducting airstrikes, supplying limited sovereignty. ness. That means we need more coop- latest. links to the broader international com- military equipment, and offering train- In this broader discussion, NATO eration. Specifically, we first need more Third: We need a munity. However, achieving this kind of ing and other assistance to countries would only be one player among sev- interoperability, second more standard- formally independent Alliance will require the Allies not only in the region. In addition, NATO’s eral, but the Alliance must demonstrate ized training, thirdly more standard- European Union Coun- to learn some new lessons, but also to other missions, ranging from counter that it is ready to engage in such a ized equipment, fourthly more joint cil of Defense Ministers rediscover some old lessons that had piracy operations (“Ocean Shield”) in discussion. The issue at stake is not to leadership, fifthly a greater division of (in the format of the For- almost gotten lost. the Gulf of Aden to the training mission offer Russia a face-saving exit from its labor, and sixthly, we need more real eign Affairs Council). Among the old lessons that NATO in Afghanistan (“Resolute Support”), attempt to re-write the rules of the Euro- integration. Fourth: We need an needs to relearn is that geography will continue, underlining the need to pean order by force. Rather, it is about The German coalition agreement independent defense still matters. In order not to antago- remain engaged in contingencies beyond organizing European security after the between the CDU/CSU and the SPD committee in the Euro- nize Russia, NATO’s post-Cold War collective defense. end of the post-Cold War era. Despite also points out where this process could pean Parliament (instead enlargement process was designed in This outward-looking orientation has its renewed focus on protecting its mem- lead to in the end – to a European of the Subcommittee on a militarily “soft” way. In the 1997 also been reaffirmed by new initiatives bers, NATO must be more than just an army. Germany is prepared to phase Defense of the European NATO Russia Founding Act the to further deepen NATO’s relations innocent bystander in such a debate. in a merger of the Bundeswehr with Parliament’s Committee on Allies stated that they did not fore- with its partner countries. As ISAF, The massive changes in the European the armies of our European neighbors, Foreign Affairs). see the permanent deployment of which used to act as a major catalyst security landscape since the spring of 2014 friends and partners. Fifth: We need more con- substantial combat forces on the for cooperation, has come to an end, make past statements about NATO’s Will that happen fast? No. It will crete multinational agree- territory of the new member NATO Allies have set in train new 2010 Strategic Concept being the “blue- take two or three decades, just like the ments between the armies states. The Readiness Action initiatives to enhance military interop- print for the next decade” appear overly road to the single currency, the euro. – such as the joint naval head- Plan (RAP) remains in line erability with partners, while some optimistic. As a result, some observers And will everyone join in? No. As with quarters of the Netherlands with this commitment. It puts partners were also offered support in expect that the 2016 Warsaw summit the euro, many will participate, but and Belgium, like the Euro- the emphasis on the abil- defense capacity building. will not only showcase key elements of nobody has to. pean Air Transport Command ity to rapidly deploy forces Finally, the United States’ “pivot” the Readiness Action Plan, such as the Twenty-two of the 28 EU nations are in Eindhoven, the integration of to the most exposed Allies to Asia and, accordingly, its focus on Very High Readiness Joint Task Force, also members of NATO. An improve- the Netherlands’ 11th Airmobile rather than on stationing missions outside Europe, will continue. but will also take a decision to start work ment of European defense would like- Brigade into the German Rapid force there. Instead, reg- While the Ukraine crisis reaffirmed the on a new Strategic Concept. wise provide a boost to the credibility Forces Division, and the coop- ular exercises and rota- crucial role of the United States as a pro- Such a document may attract much of the transatlantic alliance. NATO eration agreement between the tional deployments in vider of military reassurance for Europe, public interest, but it hardly seems a defense and EU defense policy are not German and Polish armies. We Central and East- a major reinforcement of the US military priority. Keeping Allies from walking opposites. NATO and the EU are not are not starting at zero here. We ern Europe will presence in Europe is unlikely. In sum, away from their commitments to fully competitors. Certainly, there is no need have already made a start. the Allies will try to square implement the RAP appears far more for them to be. NATO does not com- Sixth: We need a new European the circle by ensuring important, as does keeping them com- pete against the United States, nor is it Security Strategy. The ESS of 2003 that changes in NATO’s mitted to their pledge to increase defense supposed to. was a milestone because it placed force posture to bol- spending, and approaching the pending The US and the EU could act to com- Europe’s commitment to multilateral- ster collective defense debates on enlargement and Russia plement one another within NATO. ism side-by-side with US unilateralism. will not happen at with realism. At the same time, Allies There are tasks for the US that are not Ever since, the Common Security and the expense of their must avoid a bifurcation of NATO NATO tasks – such as those in east Defense Policy has been on the world expeditionary into a Northeastern group of Allies Asia. And there are tasks for Europe, stage. Europe announced that it aimed capabilities. that focuses on Russia and a Southern which are not NATO tasks – such as to be an independent actor. But since In Ukraine, group that focuses on instability in those in Africa. There are common then there has been far too little prog- Russia has North Africa and the Middle East. Such tasks for America and Europe within ress. Today we have new crises, a new provided a a regionalization would weaken NATO NATO. And NATO would be all the Commission – and a new chance. n textbook just at a time when it needs to be strong. stronger for these joint tasks if Europe example “All for one and one for all” is still the itself were stronger. best formula to cope with the challenges There is one really stupid impera- at hand. n tive, a really annoying principle,

New challenges need new answers: The Medium Extended Air Defense System (MEADS), a transatlantic arms project with German participation. An exercise with the new system in 2013.

PICTURE ALLIANCE/DPA/MEADS INTERNATIONAL The Security Times • Strategy

June 2015 9

navy frigate on an anti- The Security Times • Strategy into question. No federal gov- pirate mission off the ernment dared to increase the coast of Somalia lack- defense budget. The maintenance ing the necessary heli- of existing equipment was being coptersA for its boarding teams; a neglected. brand new military transport air- Even though Afghanistan is craft grounded in northern Ger- hardly ever mentioned in the many; the G36 assault rifle that German debate on the G36 assault turns unpredictably inaccurate rifle, it may in fact be more about when used in hot environments that mission thatn about the rifle or after extended use in combat: itself. When the Bundeswehr was in the year of its 60th anniversary, sent to Afghanistan in 2001, nei- the German Bundeswehr is hitting ther political nor military leaders the headlines with reports of mal- expected a real combat mission. functioning military equipment The troops were seen as a stabi- – while its strategic focus remains lization force in a relatively quiet unclear. environment. It was not until The technical problems with the 2008 that German soldiers got old Sea Lynx and the new NH90 into regular combat situations. helicopters, with the new Airbus Now that the mission in Afghan- A400M transport aircraft, or with istan is drawing to an end, there the G36 rifle are not inherently is a great reluctance to engage in linked. It may even be a coinci- another large-scale deployment. dence that they all made the news An insecure army The Bundeswehr is focusing on at around the same time. supposedly low-risk training But the issue is highly politi- On its 60th anniversary, the Bundeswehr looks back at two decades missions in Mali, Somalia, and cal. Both the current minister of of dramatic reforms. But it may have to start all over again | By Eric Chauvistré Iraq. “Enable and enhance” is defense, Ursula von der Leyen, the snappy phrase created for this and her predecessor Thomas de SIELSKI IMAGO/JOACHIM sort of minor mission that allows Maizière are seen as potential what one could realistically expect German Netherlands Corps, are ment rate, this is a challenge that Technical problems: The new the political leadership to demon- Christian Democratic party candi- of it, and what price one would be to be at the heart of Nato’s newly won’t go away. Airbus A400M transport aircraft. strate global engagement. dates for the chancellorship, once prepared to pay for maintaining established “Very High Readiness Finally, the Bundeswehr is But in the face of Putin’s Ukrai- Angela Merkel steps down. This an effective force. Joint Task Force” (VJTF), set up undergoing an often neglected army was set up in 1955, the nian challenge, the Bundeswehr explains the unusual degree of The reports that create the image in response to Russian action in generational shift. Young officers, democratic state it was to serve is preparing once again for con- attention. The defense portfolio of a poorly equipped force come the Ukraine to deter any attacks whose ideas of a modern fighting was already six years old. The flict in Europe. In an attempt has always been seen as the ulti- at a time when German defense on the Baltic states. Given the force were formed in Afghanistan, Wiederbewaffnung (rearmament), to strengthen deterrence, it will mate test for ambitious politicians policy and the Bundeswehr itself drastically reduced stocks in arms will soon replace the old guard only ten years after the end of reactivate some of its previously in Germany. Most of them failed face tremendous challenges, both and vehicles, putting the contin- recruited and trained during the World War II, was highly con- mothballed Leopard 2 tanks and and had to step down early. So domestically and internationally. gent together posed an unexpect- East-West confrontation at a time troversial. is even planning to develop a far, only Helmut Schmidt, minis- First, 25 years after the wall edly high challenge. when the Bundeswehr was a much To engage in missions follow-up system. But even if this ter of defense in the early 1970s, came down, the Bundeswehr is stronger and larger abroad, half a century later the is implemented without the usual actually went on to the top job. more uncertain than ever about force – but never seri- Bundeswehr had to transform time delays and cost overruns in But there is more to it than its strategic purpose. Journalist Eric Chauvistré ously expected to fight itself from an army equipped with arms procurement, it will most party politics and the personal Second, Germany still has to has reported extensively a real war. The new thousands of main battle tanks certainly not lead to the thousands ambitions of some individuals. demonstrate how it will fulfill the on the Afghanistan conflict generation of officers confronting a potential Soviet of tanks the Bundeswehr had in its The way the shortcomings of the bold commitment made by both and has spent time embedded may have a clearer idea attack on the Elbe river and in stocks during the Cold War. with German Bundeswehr troops German military are debated and Ursula von der Leyen and Foreign serving in the ISAF mission there. of what combat means the “Fulda gap” to a light expe- It is ironic that, just at a time scandalized indicate that they are Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier and how little the use ditionary army fighting guerrilla when the Bundeswehr had suc- a welcome distraction from the at the 2014 Munich Security Con- NOAM KOHER of force may sometimes forces on the Kunduz river in cessfully transformed itself into still unresolved question of what ference – to assume more respon- achieve, but it is also a Northern Afghanistan. A deploy- an expeditionary force and dem- the Bundeswehr’s premier mission sibility in world affairs. Within Fourthly, the Bundeswehr has generation that was deeply frus- ment that was hailed as a shining onstrated that it is able to sus- ought to be. And it is not only Germany, the promise was widely been struggling with becoming a trated by the lack of public sup- example of the Bundeswehr as a tain a significant presence in a decision makers in government understood – or misunderstood – professional army that is attrac- port for the Afghanistan mission. force bringing peace, democracy remote and hostile environment, and parliament that are keen to as an appeal to boost its military tive to young men and women The Bundeswehr is firmly estab- or at least some sort of stability that approach is being all but avoid the tough questions. There engagements. after conscription was suspended lished in German society. Yet, the to the region, soon turned into a abandoned. The strategic focus is a deep-rooted reluctance in the Thirdly, doubts about Ger- in 2011. Given the dramatic fact that it was not an intrinsic combat mission that never gained is shifting again. And the ques- general public to discuss the future many’s equipment are particu- demographic changes Germany part of the old Federal Republic wide popular support back home. tion of an appropriate role for role of its armed forces – what the larly embarrassing because the faces and its, by European stan- resonates in many debates until Increasingly, the purpose the Bundeswehr is back on the Bundeswehr should be able to do, Bundeswehr, as part of the dards, relatively low unemploy- today. When the new German of the Bundeswehr was called agenda. n

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nuclear agree- The Security Times player• Strategy on Tehran’s side, ing defeat appeared imminent. ern Europe is that Iran threatens ment with and of course the pro- When the US provided aid to far more states than just Israel. Iran is in sight, Iranian Hamas groups in Israel, the German government Tehran’s missiles currently have finally. The the Palestinian territories. under Willy Brandt and Walter a proven range of approximately Anightmare of a A-bomb in Even if one considers the Scheel refused at first to support 2,200 kilometers. Some unveri- the hands of the Shiite rev- Peace Iranian leadership totally US policy and therefore Israel. fied reports from Western intel- olutionaries seems to have irrational, this kind of The substance of the Samson ligence services – which are more been banished. Thank you, counterproductive conduct Option (excluding the Old Tes- than occasionally wrong (see Iraq permanent members of the would be unthinkable by tament and Judaism, of course) 2003) – claim that Iran is working UN Security Council and any cogent standard. It may also have guided the fathers overtime to develop missiles with a Germany. That, briefly, is for our time? makes no strategic sense. of the Iranian Bomb. In the First range of 10,000 kilometers. the general impression. Unlike Iran, Israel has a Gulf War (1980-88) the destruc- Proven – because it has been Neville Chamberlain nuclear second-strike capa- tion of the Islamic Republic by launched and displayed – is also pledged “peace for our Nuclear deal or not – bility. That means, should Saddam Hussein’s Iraq seemed Iran’s satellite program. The time” in 1938 following Iran remains a threat Israel be hit by Iranian at hand. In this emergency situa- first launch vehicle was built in the Munich Conference nuclear weapons, it could tion, leaders in Tehran launched Russia. Now Iran is building its with Hitler. Bill Clinton to the whole Middle East still retaliate. Thanks to a nuclear weapons program. At own. Anyone who can build rock- similarly hailed his 1994 German-built submarines the time, Israel played no part in ets for satellites can also build nuclear deal with North By Michael Wolffsohn that were partly subsidized their thinking. long-range missiles for military Korea, which trashed and partly donated, Israel Israel still has a the agreement years ago. has the capacity. In 1991, nuclear weapons Barack Obama has like- under the Kohl-Genscher monopoly in the Michael Wolffsohn wise been singing the government, Israel got Middle East. Why not is Professor of Modern History praises of the Lausanne the possibility to build a Iran then too? What at the Bundeswehr University in Munich. His recent book framework accords. The second strike capability. works for Israel would “Zum Weltfrieden. Ein politischer world is celebrating; only Deliveries were suspended also be good for Iran, Entwurf” was published Israel is bucking the trend. under Gerhard Schröder right? One could also in 2015. Why? and Joschka Fischer, but see the matter differ- PRIVATE I was asked to contrib- Chancellor Angela Merkel ently, historically and ute an article discussing has resumed them in the empirically. Israel has kept its purposes. In the shorter rather Israel’s objections and course of the three succes- nuclear monopoly for decades than over the longer term, then, concerns. I have not done sive governing coalitions without threatening to use it, Iran will have strategic ballistic so and will not, as I am a she has headed since 2005. let alone actually pushing the missiles. It will not need them to scholar and essayist, not a Despite the satisfaction button. attack Israel, of course. Tehran propagandist for any side. that a nuclear second- Libya under Gaddafi attempted is 1,600 kilometers away from However, I certainly can strike capability might give to build a nuclear device until Tel Aviv. Iran’s existing missile and will discuss why the Israel, if nuclear war were 2003 and then stopped. Israel’s arsenal is already up to that task. supposed bearers of peace, to break out it would not air force destroyed Syria’s Ira- This means that Iran’s lead- the 5 + 1, who have been prevent Israel’s destruc- nian-backed nuclear arms devel- ers have far more than Israel in negotiating for so long, tion. This second strike has opment facilities in September their sights. Why else would they have nonetheless come up been called the “Samson 2007. be investing billions (that the short. option.” Just like the Old Even today, most Arab states civilian population sorely needs) On the technical side we Testament judge Samson, feel threatened not by the Israeli in middle- and long-range mis- can say that the planned an Israel facing its demise monopoly, but by the prospect of siles and satellite programs? To final accord will make it would destroy its enemies a duopoly, should Iran succeed in hit New York, a ballistic missile harder for Iran to build as well. The deterrent effect building its own bomb. Just look would have to deliver a nuclear a nuclear weapon – sub- is clear. at the outraged reaction of Saudi warhead over a distance of 9,900 stantially so, even, but not Israel’s nuclear doctrine Arabia and the Gulf states to the kilometers from Tehran. That is structurally. has been based on Samson Lausanne talks. the geographic sense – or insanity As the nuclear powers from the beginning. Its Why would Iran seek to build – behind Iran’s missile program. knew during the Cold War principle, “if we go down, a bomb if the whole enterprise The distance from Iran to Berlin between East and West, we take our enemies down seems senseless? From the Iranian (3,600 km), Paris (4,200 km) and and as both Israel and with us,” could also be viewpoint, it is anything but. As London (4,400 km) is far shorter. Iran know now: the use of stated as: “that day will not the conflict with the Arab states As soon as Iran develops inter- nuclear weapons (assum- come, because our bomb progresses – an end is nowhere in mediate range delivery systems, ing both sides have them) deters the enemy from sight – a nuclear deadlock would it will be able to defend itself leads to mutual assured launching his strike in the lead to an intensified conven- using missile deterrence against destruction. Neither would first place.” At the begin- tional arms race. In the long term, tough and sometimes crippling survive. ning of the Yom Kippur structurally, Israel can only lose EU sanctions that include bans The lethal radiation of War in October 1973, it this race: demographically, eco- on oil purchases from Iran. Iranian nuclear devices seemed as if Israel would nomically, and therefore, eventu- It is high time that Germany, against Israel would target have to implement the ally, militarily. That is the main Europe and the US look not only not only the Jewish state, Samson option, as a crush- Israeli criticism of the nuclear at the contents of nuclear, bio- but also Iran’s allies and deal with Iran. In no way is it logical, chemical and conven- clients: the Shi’ite Hezbol- limited to the hawks surrounding tional warheads, but also at their Travels more than 2,000 lah militia in Lebanon, Prime Minister Netanyahu. It is, delivery systems and the strategy kilometers: A long range friends and foes in Syria, Shahab-3 is launched unfortunately, real. that derives from Iran’s missile which under the Assad during a test in Iran on Often overlooked and even geography, and gauge the threat

regime is still a strategic NEWS AGENCY PICTURE ALLIANCE/LANDOV/UPI/ALI SHAYGAN/FARS Sept. 28, 2009. unknown in the US and West- they represent. n Building confidence Implications of the nuclear deal with Iran | By Ambassador Seyed Hossein Mousavian

n April 2, 2015, Iran IR-2M centrifuges currently the two capitals. This track could and the P5+1 reached installed will be placed in a Inter- open up the possibility of direct a framework agree- national Atomic Energy Agency negotiations and cooperation ment that ensures (IAEA) monitored storage. between Tehran and Washington intrusiveO transparency and confi- Arak reactor: Iran will not pro- over multiple theaters of con- dence building measures on Iran’s duce weapons grade plutonium, PHOTO IMAGO/UPI flict raging in Afghanistan, Syria, nuclear program in return for a will ship all of its spent fuel from Yemen, Iraq and instability in the lifting of all nuclear-related sanc- the reactor out of the country for Levant with increasing efforts to tions and respecting the legitimate the reactor’s lifetime, will not counter extremism and terrorism. rights of Iran for enrichment, with build any additional heavy water Iran and the West: relations continued talks until the June 30 reactors and will not have repro- between Iran and the West dete- deadline toward a comprehensive cessing facility. riorated during the 8-year presi- deal. This initial agreement is a Monitoring and Inspections: dency of Ahmadinejad and fol- positive step toward ending 12 Iran will implement the highest lowing the election of the moder- years of contention over Iran’s level of international inspection ate Iranian president Rouhani we nuclear program. The next few measures (Subsidiary Arrange- are finally witnessing both sides weeks will be particularly diffi- ment, Modified Code 3.1 and coming out of their coma. The cult, as thorny technical issues are Additional Protocol) and will European powers involved in the negotiated and specific phasing address the IAEA’s concerns nuclear talks have made major out of sanctions is agreed upon. regarding the Possible Military strides in a short time to rectify While the drama over the nuclear Dimensions (PMD) issues. their relations with Iran. The key talks will continue for the next Following the implementation PHOTO IMAGO/UPI to more stable and secure Middle few weeks until the comprehen- of the comprehensive nuclear The only site where Iran will continue enrichment: Members of the IAEA inspection team inside the Natanz East will have to include the Irani- sive agreement is reached and deal, the Iranian nuclear file will uranium enrichment plant on Jan. 20, 2014. ans at every juncture. To this end, goes into effect, we have to look be removed from the United policy and military threat by a evolution of IAEA safeguards in curement to enrichment will also Iran and Europe should take con- at the post-deal environment. Nations Security Council and nuclear weapon state against a the future. cement safeguards to ensure no structive steps combating rising Implications for Iran’s nuclear return to the IAEA. Iran’s nuclear non-nuclear weapon state have 3. Confidence building: Resolv- fissile material is diverted toward trend of new terrorist groups such program for the next ten to 25 facilities following the ten to 25 failed in resolving a major inter- ing the Iranian nuclear file, while clandestine weapons programs. as IS and Al Qaeda and crisis years: year limitations will expand in national concern over Iran’s alleviating the concerns of world Once again – the measures agreed management in the Middle East. Enrichment: Reduce installed accordance to the domestic needs nuclear file. powers and regional countries upon in the final comprehensive Iran and the region: The reso- centrifuges by approximately two- 2. Strengthening regarding its nature, scope and deal will be a building block for lution of Iran’s nuclear dossier thirds of about 19,000 installed Ambassador the foundations of aim, will inevitably help confi- the nuclear weapons-free zone could open the door for a col- today, limiting uranium enrich- Seyed Hossein Mousavian the Non-Proliferation dence and trust regionally and (NWFZ) and bring the notion of lective forum for dialogue in the ment to 3.67 percent, reduce cur- is a research scholar at Princeton Treaty (NPT): the internationally. a WMD Free Zone in the Middle Persian Gulf region. The most University and a former spokesman rent 10,000 kg of low-enriched for Iran’s nuclear negotiators. inalienable right of 4. Non-proliferation model: The East one step closer. pressing issues include coopera- uranium (LEU) to 300 kg of 3.67 His latest book, “Iran and the signatory states to comprehensive nuclear deal could Implications for Iran’s relations tion on resolving the humani- percent LEU and not to build new United States: An Insider’s view peaceful nuclear energy become a model the Middle East with the West and the region: tarian crisis raging on in Syria, facilities for the purpose of enrich- on the Failed Past and the Road to and technology while and beyond enabling the same Iran and the US: The nuclear fight against the spread of extrem- Peace” was released in May 2014. ing uranium. adhering to robust level of transparency, monitoring negotiations between Iran and ists (IS), stability of Iraq, energy HOSSEINMOUSAVIAN.COM Fordo facility: No enrichment verification and moni- and verification to be applied to the world powers has enabled a security in the Persian Gulf and at Fordo, converting the current of the country and in close coor- toring measures to ensure their emerging nuclear programs. forum for Iran and the United bringing an end to hostilities in facility into a R&D center and no dination with the IAEA. respective program is peaceful. 5. Movement toward the States to engage on a bilateral Yemen. These initial steps could fissile material at Fordo. The implications of the nuclear The April 2 agreement put into Nuclear Free zone: Tailoring the basis at foreign minister level for develop to eventually include a list Natanz facility: The only site deal for confidence building and place the most intrusive moni- nuclear deal to reflect the domes- the first time in over 35 years. This of initiatives to address regional where Iran will continue enrich- nuclear non-proliferation: toring mechanisms in the history tic enrichment needs of individual development has brought about challenges through regional solu- ment with only 5,060 IR-1 first- 1. Diplomacy: Negotiations of non-proliferation and these countries and enhanced moni- a sea change in having a direct tions and pave the way toward generation centrifuges and 1,000 have succeeded where coercive measures will set the stage for the toring from raw material pro- line of communication between formal security cooperation. n June 2015 11

ermany shouldn’t The Security Times • Strategy really have been allowed to join in cel- ebrations to mark the 70thG anniversary of the founding of the United Nations. If the UN Charter – signed on June 26, 1945 by 50 nations – had been taken at its word, then the Federal Repub- lic would have been prevented from taking part. In accordance with Article 53, it is still classified as an “enemy state” – just like any state “that was an enemy of the signatories of this charter during World War Two”. In reality, this designation hasn’t played any role for a long time. Decades ago, England, France and The last resort the US formally gave up their right to intervene in the affairs Seventy years after its foundation, of those enemy states. With the the UN retains an indispensible role treaties agreed between Bonn and the Soviet Union in the 1970s, in global problem-solving Moscow also signed up to this arrangement. By Lutz Lichtenberger Generally speaking, the world organization has experienced a dramatic loss of significance. IMAGO/IMAGEBROKER Today 193 nations are members But first and foremost, the com- negotiations take place within the scale. The work of the UNHCR lesson learned from World War II US and UN Flags outside of the General Assembly, among position of the Security Council no G-7, G-8, G-20 and G-77, as well has become increasingly crucial in is that peace “is anchored in the United Nations headquarters them the island republic of Kiri- longer reflects the global political as in ad hoc coalitions, ‘mini- recent years. The missions – medi- intellectual and moral solidarity in New York. bati, the tiny western European realities of the 21st century. France lateral’ groups of affected nations cal aid, primary care, tent camps – of mankind”. UNESCO’s most context of ongoing war where the principality of Liechtenstein and and Britain have lost much of or in cooperation with NGOs. in Lebanon, Darfur, Afghanistan, important tasks are to provide belligerents themselves did not – since July 2011 – South Sudan their status, while Brazil, India and The UN can however look back Iraq and above all as a result of access to education, “the protec- want to stop fighting or preying on as the youngest member. The total Japan – and also Germany – have on some successful endeavors, the Syrian civil war, in Jordan, are tion and promotion of the diver- civilians.“ In any case, the report population of these three countries gained in stature. The five per- many of them occurring beneath among the organization’s biggest. sity of cultural expressions” and continues, the UN mission saved is less than one million. They manent members of the Security the perception thresh- the preservation of world cultural many civilian lives and prevented nevertheless enjoy the same voting Council, all equipped with their old of the global public heritage. an escalation in the fighting. rights as India, Brazil and Mexico veto power, may occasionally pay eye, which is focused In addition, the dangerous The conflict of interests between – with a combined population of lip service to the idea of a reform, on major geopolitical Lutz Lichtenberger peacekeeping and peace enforc- permanent members of the Secu- almost 1.6 billion. but in reality they show little inter- conflicts. is a staff writer ing missions in Africa, the Middle rity Council and the tensions The principle that puts all est in anything that would under- The Millennium at The Atlantic Times East and Asia are generally more within many individual nations and The German Times. nations on a level playing field mine their prominent position. Project, established in effective than their reputation will not be resolved through any may well be honorable. But in This is one of the few issues 2002 by Secretary Gen- might suggest. There are currently kind of institutional reorganiza- the political activities of the Gen- on which China, France, Brit- eral Kofi Annan, is the HEIDI KÜBLER more than 100,000 UN peace- tion or Security Council reform. eral Assembly, it has resulted in ain, Russia and the US agree. large-scale action plan keepers deployed in 16 nations. The UN cannot become a gov- a progressive loss of relevance. On other issues, one of the five against poverty, hunger and dis- One of the most powerful A recently published report by ernment for the entire world. For example, the UN became an veto countries will often block ease affecting billions of people. UN organizations is the United the US Council on Foreign Rela- But despite persistent disputes, international laughing stock in resolutions supported by a clear More than 250 experts, scien- Nations Educational, Scien- tions concludes that the missions divergent interests and apparently 2010 when the General Assem- majority. Divergent geopolitical tists, politicians, representatives of tific and Cultural Organization to Liberia, Sierra Leone and the insurmountable antagonism, it is bly initially voted Muammar al- interests have repeatedly rendered NGOs, the World Bank and IMF (UNESCO). The essence of its Ivory Coast can be viewed as viewed as the last resort in global Gaddafi’s Libya on to the UN the United Nations ineffective in have presented detailed plans. work is rooted in the idea, set out success stories. Congo, Mali and politics and as a forum for debate. Human Rights Council with a global crises. A key instrument of humani- in the preamble to the organiza- South Sudan are admittedly still After 70 years the United large majority – only to exclude Little wonder then, that in addi- tarian aid is the United Nations tion’s constitution, that political unstable. Nevertheless, the study Nations still retains its signifi- the nation from the committee tion to the world organization, High Commissioner for Refugees and economic regulations and quotes Paul D. Williams of George cance: as an entity in which – as again one year later after Libyan innumerable institutions have (UNHCR). More than 7,000 agreements alone do not go far Washington University as saying the case of Germany bears wit- troops launched brutal attacks on sprung up that find decision- employees in 125 nations cam- enough to secure world peace. The that “these missions failed largely ness – enmity can be buried and demonstrators. making altogether easier. Fruitful paign for refugees on a global preamble goes on to say that one because they were deployed in a overcome. n

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The Security Times • Strategy

OSCE participating states Partners for Co-operation

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The OSCE: 40 years of the Helsinki Final Act With armed conflict again a reality in Europe, it is more important than ever | By Lamberto Zannier

his year marks the democracy, peace and unity” arms and human beings, have most difficult challenge the Orga- cycle and included assistance in vision of a security community 40th anniversary of the for the continent. In 1994, they emerged. Climate change, which nization has faced after the end conflict de-escalation, national stretching from Vancouver to signing of the Helsinki turned the Conference into the affects natural resources, as well of the Cold War. dialogue promotion, reconcilia- Vladivostok based on shared Final Act, the founding Organization for Security and as growing popular demand As the only regional security tion, constitutional reform, pro- commitments and values, and Tdocument of the Organization Co-operation in Europe. for more democratic societies, organization able to bring all tection of national minorities, how to reconsolidate European for Security and Co-operation in The post-Cold War interna- respect for human rights and the the key stakeholders to the table, and elections. security as a common project, is a Europe (OSCE). Revolutionary tional security environment rule of law and clamping down the OSCE has proved to be well- Currently the OSCE is focused most welcome initiative. At a time for its time, the Helsinki Final called for the OSCE to assume on corruption have also been placed to contribute to interna- on reversing the escalation, facili- when deep divisions are emerging Act pioneered the comprehensive new responsibilities, support- gaining prominence as possible tional efforts to de-escalate the tating a stable ceasefire and a on the European continent, the approach to security that encom- ing democratic transition across conflict drivers. conflict and support the politi- dynamic political process lead- declared ambition to rebuild trust passes politico-military aspects, Eastern Europe and the former Under the guidance of its cal process in an inclusive and ing to a sustainable peace under and confidence among participat- economic and environmental Soviet Union and helping restore member states, the OSCE has consensus-based fashion. The the guidance of the Trilateral ing states through a substantive issues and the human dimen- peace in the former Yugoslavia, responded quickly and Contact Group led by the OSCE discussion on the future role of sion. For decades its ten funda- which violently fell apart in the dynamically to these Chairmanship’s Special Repre- the OSCE in the context of evolv- mental principles have served as early 1990s. emerging threats. It sentative. We know from experi- ing European political and secu- the foundation of the European The OSCE states progressively has developed and ence that it is not only important rity structures has stalled. Fresh security order. responded by establishing perma- strengthened its abil- Lamberto Zannier to freeze the fighting, but also to and innovative ideas are needed. Such an evocative anniversary nent structures, including a Secre- ity to provide expert is OSCE Secretary General. avoid freezing the political pro- In this regard, co-operation with provides a unique opportunity to tariat with a Conflict Prevention advice and capacity- cess and address the root causes the OSCE Network of think look back at the OSCE’s history, Centre, the Office for Demo- building support in of conflicts. tanks and academic institutions achievements and current chal- cratic Institutions and Human areas such as good OSCE/MICKY KROELL The crisis in and around and informal high-level meetings lenges and to try to chart a course Rights, the High Commissioner governance, economic Ukraine has marked a clear shift such as OSCE Security Days are for its future. This is all the more on National Minorities, the Rep- reform, environmental protec- Special Monitoring Mission’s from aspiring towards a Euro- increasingly important. urgent today, when armed con- resentative on Freedom of the tion, minority protection, tol- speedy deployment and its abil- Atlantic and Eurasian security Nevertheless, more than that is flict is once again a reality on Media and the Parliamentary erance and non-discrimination, ity to adapt, particularly when it community to a return to con- needed. A gulf remains between European soil and the East-West Assembly, and by deploying field anti-terrorism, border manage- was entrusted with a key role in frontation and Cold War rheto- the many ideas and proposals and divide is growing, undermining operations in Eastern Europe, the ment and anti-trafficking. The supporting the implementation ric. In this context, the OSCE their implementation as building the very foundations of European Western Balkans, the Caucasus, Organization is also strengthen- of the Minsk Agreements, is a as an inclusive platform for dia- blocks towards enhanced trust security. and Central Asia. ing relationships with its Medi- huge achievement for the OSCE logue and joint action across the and confidence. The current situ- The OSCE is the world’s larg- The OSCE’s evolution con- terranean and Asian partners for and the whole international entire Euro-Atlantic and Eurasian ation calls for engagement, lead- est regional security organiza- tinued throughout the 1990s co-operation to jointly respond community. The entire OSCE region can play a crucial role not ership and commitment to jointly tion. Over time, the OSCE has and well into the twenty-first to common security challenges. toolbox has been mobilized to only in defusing the crisis on the explore opportunities for re- strived to adapt its unique com- century, constantly adapting to Ultimately, the OSCE’s inclu- respond to the unfolding crisis ground but also in addressing the launching the process. Precisely prehensive and multi-dimen- new strategic challenges arising siveness and impartiality have with the support of successive challenges facing the European at this particular juncture the sional approach to security to from the turbulent post-9/11 over time become its key com- OSCE Chairmanships, the Secre- security architecture at the stra- OSCE brings value as a platform an increasing number of chal- international context and an parative advantage in responding tariat, institutions, parliamentary tegic level. for inclusive discussion, including lenges: from arms proliferation increasingly globalized world. to the changing security environ- assembly, and the Office of the The OSCE Troika-appointed on issues pertaining to broader and the promotion of military Transnational threats, including ment. Project Co-ordinator in Kyiv. The Panel of Eminent Persons, which security challenges. transparency to the resolution of terrorism, organized and cyber The ongoing crisis in and scope of the OSCE crisis response is looking at ways to reinvigorate We also need to continue protracted conflicts, support to crime and trafficking in drugs, around Ukraine is perhaps the has covered the entire conflict the 2010 OSCE Astana Summit’s enhancing co-operation with the transition processes and demo- UN and other international and cratic reforms and combatting regional organizations under the transnational threats. From CSCE to OSCE framework of Chapter VIII of When the OSCE’s predecessor, the UN Charter. In today’s glo- the Conference on Security and 57 countries are members of the Orga- January 17, 1984: In Stockholm, estab- signatories to democracy as the sole form balized world, security threats Co-operation in Europe (CSCE), nization for Security and Co-operation in lishment of a forum for security dialogue of government as well as to human rights are too complex for any one was established, Cold War divi- Europe. They include all European coun- in Europe. and basic freedoms guarantees. country or organization to tackle tries; Turkey; Mongolia; Russia and all sions were deeply entrenched September 6, 1985: In Madrid, agree- December 5 - 6, 1994: CSCE summit in alone. We need to join forces, states on the territory of the former Soviet and Euro-Atlantic leaders with ment on Confidence- and Security-Building Budapest. The CSCE becomes an organiza- finding synergies and comple- Union; as well as the US and Canada. drastically opposing ideologies Measures (CSBMs). tion and from 1 January 1995 is known as mentarities. were seeking a flexible multi- The Organization’s headquarters (Secre- the Organization for Security and Coopera- Today we face a defining September 19, 1986: Agreement to invite lateral forum where they could tariat) are in Vienna. tion in Europe (OSCE). moment for European and global work out differences through observers from all other participating states security. As the international high-level political dialogue. July 3, 1973: East-West Conference to watch certain military exercises. Verifica- December 1 - 2, 2010: In Astana at the community has “rediscovered” The result was a process, which on Security and Co-operation in Europe tion via inspections on land and from the first summit for some time, no resolutions the OSCE as a key actor to help not only provided a framework (CSCE) in Helsinki. air as early as 36 hours after maneuvers are are made for the future strategic and the- solve the crisis in and around for discussions on security but September 18, 1973 - July 21, 1975: announced; permission may not be denied. matic direction of the OSCE. Ukraine, we urgently need to over time also created the most Preparatory talks in Geneva. March 19 - April 11, 1990: CSCE con- The organization’s main aim remains reaffirm the legitimacy and rel- advanced international regime evance of the Helsinki funda- August 1, 1975: Signing of the Helsinki ference in Bonn on economic cooperation. to secure peace and reconstruction in the of conventional arms control and mental principles, and make them Accords in the Finnish capital, agreeing From June 5 - June 28, 1990 in Copen- wake of conflict. Under chapter VIII of the confidence- and security-building more difficult to defy. Although on the inviolability of frontiers, peaceful hagen, experts met to discuss the Human United Nations and in accordance with the measures (CSBMs), such as the these principles have been vio- settlement of disputes, non-intervention in Dimension of the CSCE. subsidiarity principle the OSCE serves as Treaty on Conventional Forces the first international contact in conflicts lated, they have not lost their internal affairs, respect for human rights November 19, 1990: Charter of Paris for in Europe, the Open Skies Treaty within its area. The activities of the OSCE validity. and fundamental freedoms. Cooperation a New Europe, international agreement and the Vienna Document on are divided into three “dimensions” based We must revive the “spirit of in economic, scientific and environmental on the creation of a new, peaceful order in Confidence-and Security-building on the three themes set out in the Helsinki Helsinki” and draw inspiration matters. Europe following the reunification of Ger- Measures. Many argue that the Accords: the Political-Military Dimension, from the leaders of states who many and the end of the East-West confron- CSCE helped to end the Cold September 9, 1983: Agreement in Madrid the Economic and Environmental Dimen- 40 years ago sat at the same tation. Final document of the CSCE summit War. In the 1990 Paris Charter, on a mandate for a Conference on Con- sion, and the Human Dimension. table and engaged in dialogue to the CSCE participating States fidence- and Security-Building Measures signed by 32 European countries and the prevent a new war. We need the declared an end to confronta- (CSBMs) and Disarmament in Europe; talks US and Canada; the division of Europe is The current chairman of the OSCE is same kind of courageous leader- tion and the division of Europe began January 1984 in Stockholm. declared over. The Paris Charter committed Serbian Foreign Minister Ivica Dačić. ship now. The OSCE has the and welcomed “a new era of table ready. n June 2015 Section B 13

efore the Iraqi terror because they had never managed organization known as to garner broad popular support. ISIS and IS came to the At the same time, the ruthless world’s attention, it had US drone war in Pakistan was beenB fighting for almost a decade bearing fruit, ending the lives of as a regional organization of Al most of Al Qaeda’s top brass. Qaeda. From 2004 to 2006, it Al Qaeda The killing of Osama Bin Laden called itself “al Qaeda in Meso- in May 2011 appeared to confirm potamia.” This caused some con- Despite the rise of IS, this trend. fusion in 2013 and 2014, when But by establishing regional it became increasingly clear that it remains a more dangerous organizations in the Arab world, not only did Al Qaeda and IS hasn’t gone opponent for the West Al Qaeda had since 2002 already represent fundamentally different been working on safeguarding jihadist schools of thought, but its own survival independently when IS began openly to fight By Guido Steinberg of the fate of the leadership in against al Qaeda and its allies away Pakistan. Al Qaeda “branches” in Syria. were set up in Saudi Arabia in But as early as 2004, the associ- 2003, in Iraq in 2004, Algeria in ation with Al Qaeda could barelySecurity Challenges2007 and Yemen in 2009. And conceal the fact that this was a while Iraqi Al Qaeda broke away marriage of convenience. Iraqi in 2013 to become a rival and Al Qaeda and its founder Abu enemy, the Yemeni subsidiary not Musab al-Zarqawi was never sub- only turned out to be absolutely ordinate to Bin Laden and the Al loyal to the Al Qaeda leadership, Qaeda leadership in Pakistan, but with which it maintained close rather pursued their own goals contacts, but also assumed the and strategies, for which they role of a parent organization in wanted to make use of recruits the battle against the US. and cash from the Gulf region. In 2009 and 2010 it attempted Al Qaeda on the other hand was to detonate bombs on transatlan- going through a weak phase at the tic flights shortly before the planes time, and the fealty of the Iraqis landed in the US; the explosives helped it to generate the impres- were detected at the last minute sion that Al Qaeda was a network during en route stopovers. Al that spanned the globe. That the Qaeda in Yemen eventually disputes emerging in 2005 did scored a major coup in January not lead to an immediate rupture 2015: It had trained at least one of DIEKLEINERT.DE/AGOSTINO NATALE DIEKLEINERT.DE/AGOSTINO was primarily to do with the fact the two attackers who murdered "Paris in Mourning" after the Charlie Hebdo attacks in January this year. Al-Qaeda trained at least one of the two attackers. that contact between Pakistan journalists working at the satirical and Iraq was broken off and both Aiman al-Zawahiri, wrote a letter troops, which moved quickly to successes there. The organization The formation of ISIS led to an magazine Charlie Hebdo in Paris. organizations were fighting for to Zarqawi sharply criticizing his force back ISI until it appeared did not make any public appear- open conflict between Baghdadi After 10 years, Al Qaeda had their survival in the ensuing years. approach. The Al Qaeda leader- to have been almost totally van- ances until April 2013, but instead and Zawahiri. The Nusra Front yet again carried out a successful It was only when both group- ship was especially perturbed by quished in 2008. supported an offshoot calling itself sought help from the Al Qaeda attack on European soil. ings supported the same local the brutal attacks on Shiite targets But ISI survived, as a small but the Nusra Front (The Support leader who issued the prompt IS triumphs in Iraq and Syria jihadists in the Syrian civil war that had become a hallmark of very strong terrorist organization. Front for the People of Al-Sham). decree that the Nusra Front and the many attacks by sympa- that they came into renewed con- the Iraqi group. The execution It profited from the American The group was founded by Syrian should continue to operate in thizers of the group in the West tact with each other. The conflict of Western hostages – in filmed withdrawal that began in 2009 members of ISI and also copied the Syria and ISI in Iraq – under the had almost managed to obscure was overlaid with a battle for decapitations arranged by Zar- and was completed in late 2011. car bomb attacks of its Iraqi parent supreme command of Zawahiri. Al Qaeda’s enduring strength. power and influence and as it qawi – was also criticized. Instead But even more significant were the organization. But its strategy fol- But Baghdadi refused to obey This strength will continue to progressed, it became apparent of creating a climate of horror policies of the Shiite-dominated lowed the guidelines of Al Qaeda. Zawahiri and a power struggle endure. This is first and fore- that ISIS/IS by no means viewed and fear within the Muslim com- Iraqi government led by began in Syria that only came to a most due to the group’s strategy, itself as part of Al Qaeda, but munity with their acts of violence, Prime Minister Nuri al- temporary halt in 2014 when ISIS/ which is more pragmatic. It is much more as an autonomous said Zawahiri, Iraqi Al Qaeda Maliki, who used his IS began fighting in the north and primarily focused on the battle organization that was seeking to should make efforts to win the extended powers to Guido Steinberg east, and the severely weakened with the West, which it aims to is a Middle East expert wrest control of the jihadist move- support of the population. eradicate Sunnis from at the German Institute Nusra Front in the northwest of weaken in a protracted war of ment from Al Qaeda. But Zarqawi and his followers the nation’s political for International and the country. attrition. IS success in Iraq and Syria did not change their conduct. system. Late 2011 saw Security Affairs (SWP). Zawahiri threw ISIS out of the Its long-term goal is also to made the group so attractive that Shortly after the death of Zarqawi the start of a concerted Al Qaeda network in early 2014, establish an “Islamic state”, but numerous jihadists declared their in June 2006, they even went a campaign of persecu- whereupon Baghdadi declared it believes attempts to do this are SWP-BERLIN.ORG allegiance. Just as many regional step further by proclaiming the tion against Sunni poli- himself the Caliph of the Islamic hugely premature, because the organizations joined Al Qaeda Islamic State in Iraq (ISI) and ticians and many civilians detained In contrast to ISI, it very prag- State. This resulted in the creation West would today find it easy to after 2001, now IS groups have demanding that other Iraqi rebel without trial in their thousands. matically sought out allies among of two enemy camps locked in a destroy such a state. Its strategy been forming in Libya, Egypt, groups fall into line with them. The Iraqi government lost all sup- the Syrian rebels in pursuit of a bitter duel. is much more focused on meticu- Afghanistan and the Caucasus, This also contradicted Al Qaeda port in Sunni regions of the coun- common goal – the toppling of the It did indeed seem as though lously planned, well conceived, among other places. In addition strategy, which had relied on try, where ISI were increasingly Assad regime. Al Qaeda had passed its zenith high profile attacks such as the from early 2014, many volun- robust alliances with like-minded able to recruit and operate without The events of April 2013 in 2014. Intensified persecution one carried out in Paris, aimed at teer fighters carried out attacks organizations – first and foremost fear of recriminations. showed that the Nusra Front did since 2001 had put the organiza- provoking an overreaction from in the West in the name of IS. with the Taliban – and which The number of attacks and vic- indeed align itself with Al Qaeda. tion under huge pressure, and it the West – or in other words: mili- Many commentators believed this had succeeded in overcoming sev- tims steadily increased from 2012; During the previous months, ISI was rarely able to carry out high- tary interventions in the Muslim spelled the end for Al Qaeda. eral problematic phases. Iraqi Al ISI gained in strength. It captured leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi had profile attacks on Western targets world where Al Qaeda is better Although Abu Musab al-Zar- Qaeda formulated a leadership Fallujah in late 2013, followed by tried in vain to bring the group – the 2005 London attacks were placed to continue the battle. To qawi publicly joined Al Qaeda in claim that endures to this day, but Mosul in June 2014, until large into line. In April he announced the last in Europe for a long while. increase its chances of success, Al 2004, he never wholly submitted that resulted in a bitter defeat in swathes of western and northwest- that he was dissolving the Syrian In 2011, weak spots in the once Qaeda relies on allegiances with to Osama Bin Laden’s leader- Iraq. Faced with the new enemy ern Iraq were under jihadi control. organization and merging it, powerful terror organizations groups such as the Taliban and ship. This was already evident in within their own ranks, many The start of the civil war in together with ISI, into a new became especially apparent: the tries not to make too many ene- 2005, when Bin Laden’s deputy rebels gave up the armed struggle neighboring Syria furthered this group called the “Islamic State in jihadists played absolutely no part and later successor, the Egyptian and allied themselves with US development, as ISI also celebrated Iraq and Syria” (ISIS). at all in the Arab revolutions, continued on page 15 Is anarchy worse than dictatorship? The rise of Islamic State and the responsibility of Washington and its allies for the civil wars in the Middle East | By Peter H. Koepf

as the invasion as many Iraqis as US troops and that when the US withdrawal to do the things that are being set foot on Arab land as an occu- Shi’ites, were included in talks on of Iraq in 2003 spawned a new, potent enemy began in 2008, Iraq was not in the done right now.” pier? To make new mistakes that rebuilding. a good or a bad that, besides massacring “infi- shape it is today: “It was fragile, What are the things being done might not be reversible? 4. The US permitted Nuri idea? In May, dels” in Iraq, has expanded into but it was stable.” right now? Flying in special After the “infidels” took over al-Maliki, Iraq’s Shi’ite prime likelyW US presidential hopeful Syria, Yemen, Libya and else- Compare that with Rainer Her- forces now and then to kidnap or Iraq in 2003, misstep followed minister from 2006 to 2014, to Jeb Bush did not yet have a clear where in Africa. mann, veteran correspondent kill IS leaders, such as the group’s mistake. Lüders, Hermann and persecute and imprison Sunni position on that question. His “Since 2001, the US has inter- for the Frankfurter Allgemeine chief oil dealer Abu Sayyaf on Guido Steinberg of the German and secular politicians and other responses have ranged from yes, it vened militarily or operated Zeitung, who accuses the US of May 16? Institute for International and opponents of the government. was the right thing, to “knowing armed drone missions in seven having left Iraq too early. The By not committing ground Security Affairs (SWP) accuse As a result, the Sunnis refused to what we know now I would not mainly Muslim states: Afghani- Americans had not the US and, more broadly, the defend the Iraqi state against the have engaged − I would not have stan, Iraq, Somalia, Yemen, Paki- delivered their prom- “Friends of the Syrian People jihadists and allowed IS to take gone into Iraq.” He then added, stan, Libya and Syria,” writes ises of a stable democ- Group” (including the “West,” power in Sunni areas “because referring to the 4,491 soldiers Middle East analyst Michael racy and economic Peter H. Koepf Turkey and the Gulf States) of their populations hated the gov- who lost their lives there: “it was Lüders, who also contributes to recovery, he writes. is Editor in Chief committing eleven capital errors: ernments in Baghdad and Damas- worth it for the people that made this publication. “In which of The early pullout in of The Atlantic Times 1. The West has intervened in cus more than IS” (Guido Stein- and The German Times. major sacrifices.” these states have living condi- 2011 made possible wars and conflicts in the Middle berg). Germany had a clear answer as tions for the population then the expansion of IS, East with the stated purpose of 5. The US banned the secular far back as 2003. Then Foreign improved, with better prospects Hermann says, adding bringing democracy – and the Baath party and dissolved the HEIDI KÜBLER Minister Joschka Fischer said no, for stability and security?” he that in both Iraq and unstated one of installing pliant Iraqi army. Many Sunnis lost he was “not convinced” by the asks. Lüders is convinced that, Syria, whose dictator Washing- forces in Iraq or Syria, the US new leaders. their livelihoods as a result. Many information provided by Secre- had Saddam Hussein not been ton likewise wanted to remove, cannot be defeated there. Draw- 2. Following the 2003 invasion former generals, officers and sol- tary of State Colin Powell and toppled, the Islamic State group the anarchy in some places has ing the Americans back into the of Iraq, the US civilian admin- diers joined the resistance to the doctored by US intelligence ser- would not exist today. “Both Al proven worse than dictatorship. country appears to be Islamic istrator Paul Bremer dismantled occupiers, including IS. vices. Today the German people Qaeda and ‘Islamic State’ have Now Jeb Bush says the US State strategy. Each horrific kill- the final vestiges of function- 6. The removal of the Saddam – and perhaps the majority of earned the label ‘made in USA’” must “re-engage” in Iraq and go ing of a hostage is another bid to ing central authority, a display Hussein regime “greatly altered Americans as well – feel con- Lüders writes. beyond the steps that President lure US troops. A President Jeb of “remarkable incompetence” the regional balance of power firmed in their doubts. The inva- Jeb Bush has also registered the Obama has already taken. Besides Bush or one from the Democratic (Lüders). in favor of Iran and Shi’ite sion of Iraq was a disaster. It cost rise of the Islamic State of Iraq flying drone missions, “we have to Party might consider that option. 3. The US did not ensure that the lives of one hundred times and Greater Syria (ISIS), but said be there to train the military and But why should “the West” again sectarian groups, especially the continued on page 14 14 June 2015

he May 22nd suicide The Security Times • Challenges attack on the Shi’ite Imam Ali mosque in Eastern Saudi Arabia hasT changed everything. For the No sign of victory first time, the “Islamic State” ter- rorist group managed to attack a religious building in the country The proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia is creating instability that is the custodian of the Muslim in half the Middle East – and will probably continue holy sites of Mecca and Medina – and killed 21 people in the pro- for years to come | By Markus Bickel cess. This was the most serious attack on Shi’ites in the history of the kingdom. The sectarian con- flict fueled by the regional powers of Saudi Arabia and Iran for years has now reached the heartland of the Sunni world – and raised the confrontation between the Shi’ite regime in Iran and Riyadh to a new level. The province of Ash Sharqiya in the eastern part of Saudi Arabia, where all the important oil facili- ties are located, is the kingdom’s vulnerable point. Concern that the many Saudi Shi’ites living here could act as a “fifth column” for Iran has been worrying the ruling elite around King Salman for years. The almost three million follow- ers of the Shi’ite minority, on the other hand, feel discriminated by the strict Wahhabite interpreta- tion of the Sunni teachings by the ruling class. “I believe the government is responsible for the NEWS IMAGO/KYODO attack,” said activist Nasima al years later. It is not possible to as defense minister, has been bom- Maryland. However, four of the would increasingly take a back Watchful: A Saudi soldier Sada, who is based in the mainly suppress the uprising against the barding the Zaidist Houthi rebels six seats reserved for the heads of seat in strategic terms. Already, monitors the border with Yemen. Shi’ite city of Qatif, just a few Sunni dictatorship permanently in Yemen since March. Riyadh state remained empty – both the the petro-dollars are unable to halt kilometers from the village of al- through repression alone – regard- views the supporters of the liberal kings of Saudi Arabia and Bahrain the insidious decline of the Sunni the fourth Arab capital to be per- Qadeeh where the suicide attacker less of how strong the influence of Shi’ite movement as followers of and the Sultan of Oman and the dictatorships, which solely rely manently controlled by Tehran, detonated his explosives. “It Iran really is. Iran, even if Tehran’s influence emir of Abu Dhabi turned down on repression and state handouts. following Baghdad, Damascus should protect us and not promote The top priority for the ruling on the “Ansar Allah” party and the invitation. They have sensed a The triumphant progress made and Beirut. sermons and textbooks that vilify family in Riyadh has been to curb its leader Abd al Malik al-Houthi lack of support from America for by “Islamic State” threatens the Saudi Arabia’s partners in Leba- us as unbelievers.” this influence since King Salman is far less than on the Hezbol- some time – and fear that Obama’s stability of the Arab world from non have been on the back foot Shi’ite believers have increas- became ruler at the beginning of lah movement in Lebanon or on rapprochement with the Shi’ite Morocco to the Gulf. strategically for years. The Shi’ite ingly been the target of the gov- the year. The successor to King Shi’ite militias in Iraq. regime in Iran could undermine Saudi Arabia’s allies have been militia Hezbollah, supported by ernment and the reactionary reli- Abdullah, who died in January, Allies of Saudi Arabia and Iran their security interests. weakened both politically and Iran, controls the army and gov- gious police force since the Iranian has made resistance to Iran’s are also facing off in Mesopo- They believe that their role as militarily in all the locations where ernment in Beirut – and it has revolution in 1979. Indeed, Saudi hegemonic ambitions the crucial tamia. The proxy war between the most important regional allies they are competing with Teh- been preventing the election of a security forces in Qatif had to change in his regional policy – the two regional powers, which of the United States could be in ran’s followers. Riyadh failed to new president for more than 12 quell protests in the same year for in addition to the fight against has provided additional impetus jeopardy as a result of the positive strengthen the Sunni tribes in Iraq, months. Moderate Sunni groups the first time. Tensions increased “Islamic State”, which has chal- to the sectarian conflict between nuclear talks in Lausanne, which which are promoting the estab- are not gaining the upper hand in again when the uprisings in the lenged the country and its 29 the Shi’ite and Sunni lishment of a national guard to Lebanon, but the local branch of Arab world aroused hopes of million inhabitants like no other teachings, has long create a counterweight to the Shia- Al Qaeda, the Nusra Front, and political change in a region that terror organization. since replaced the con- Markus Bickel is the Cairo dominated army and the militias “Islamic State.” This is all taking is suppressed by authoritarian Not even Al Qaeda, led initially flict between moderate correspondent of the financed by Iran. Like the Sunni place very close to Israel, which Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung rulers. More than two dozen by the Saudi-born Osama Bin and extremist forces, and the author of a book entitled stronghold of Tikrit, Ramadi, the is already facing the possibility of people were killed in Eastern Prov- Laden, managed to cast doubts which still dominated “Der vergessene Nahostkonflikt" capital of the province of Anbar the war in Syria spilling over to ince in 2012 alone when the police on the Al-Saud dynasty’s exclu- politics in the Middle (The Forgotten Conflict on the border with Saudi Arabia, the Golan Heights. suppressed demonstrations in a sive claim to represent the nation East in the glory days in the Middle East, 2011). will probably be reconquered Saudi Arabia recently launched violent manner. A Sharia court in such a way as the fighters of of the Palestinian Lib- by Shi’ite popular mobilization a new military initiative in the PRIVATE also condemned the prominent the IS caliph Abu Bakr al-Bag- eration Organization forces (Hashed Shaabi), not by country that has been wrecked Shi’ite imam Nimr Bakir al-Nimr dadi. Dozens of IS cells have been (PLO). “Why are you going to could lead to an historic agree- state forces. The Sunni allies of by civil war for four years to to death in the fall of 2014. crushed since it rose to become Camp David?” the Iranian For- ment between Washington and Riyadh no longer have a voice in topple the dictator in Damascus, There is nothing new about this the most significant Sunni force in eign Minister Javad Zarif said at Tehran in Vienna at the end of the largest Iraqi province. who is allied to Tehran. The suc- policy: fears of being encircled by Syria and Iraq between Jeddah and the end of May, appealing to his June. Their role was very secure Nor has King Salman so far- cesses enjoyed by Sunni militias Iran have dominated the policies Dharan – but the Saudis still failed “Saudi brothers” to find a solution for decades: in return for supply- achieved any of his goals on the in the south and north-west of pursued by the royal government to prevent the attack on the Imam- at a regional level. “We’re keen ing oil, US presidents had provided southern flank of the kingdom Syria will probably only lead to for years. Domestically, concern Ali mosque in al-Qadeeh in May on good relations in contrast to protection for the most important either, even after almost 100 days an escalation in the power struggle is primarily directed towards the and the Shi’ite al-Anoud mosque America, which is only pursuing trading routes since the overthrow of air strikes against the Houthi, with Shi’ite militias and officers cities near the tiny island state of in Dammam one week later. its own interests.” of Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi their fighters are still advancing. from the Iranian Revolutionary Bahrain, where the Sunni King As in Iraq and Syria, where However, the Arab rulers in the in 1979. And Washington turned Yemen’s President Abd Rabbo Guards, who have rushed to assist Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa keeps the the royal family departed from Gulf region not only doubt this a blind eye to the suppression of Mansur, who fled to Riyadh in the exhausted army of Bashir al- Shi’ite majority in check. Riyadh its traditional policy of check- – but also worry about Barack the Saudi population. March, has not been reinstated Assad. So there is no end in sight already sent troops to Manama’s book diplomacy last summer Obama’s determination to guar- That could all be over by the end and his militias have not man- to the Iranian-Saudi proxy war, Pearl Roundabout via the King and attacked IS positions with antee their security in the face of of this summer: The international aged to decisively weaken the even if agreement is reached at Fahd Causeway in March 2011 to its own fighter aircraft, Salman is Iran’s expansionism. The Ameri- comeback of the Islamic Republic fighters of the “Ansar-Allah” the nuclear talks in Vienna at the restrict the spread of the freedom now using military might against can president had invited the lead- under the Supreme Leader of the militia led by Abdul Malik al end of June. On the contrary, the movement by followers there. Tehran’s allies. The Saudi air ers of the Gulf Cooperation Coun- revolution Ayatollah Ali Kha- Houthi. Not even the massive air conflicts in Iraq, Yemen and Syria However, protests are continu- force, which is commanded by cil (GCC) to his country estate at meini would inevitably create a strikes have dispelled Riyadh’s are likely to continue for a long ing, albeit at a low level, even four his son Mohammed Bin Salman Camp David in the US state of situation where the Arab states fears that Sanaa could become time. n continued from page 13 ligence Council. “It is beyond later founded Al Qaeda with Assad’s help. Quelling Three German writers agree: The US and the capabilities of US intelligence, and the Taliban. In Pesha- both fronts will not be pos- its allies blithely destroyed the Sunni- Is anarchy worse or any other Western states for war, Pakistan, Osama bin sible, they write. Iran, which Shi’ite balance of power in the Middle that matter, to gain the complex Laden established a “service is already fighting in north- East. The gravest result of this imbalance strategic and tactical insight and office” that funneled Arab ern Iraq against IS, will have than dictatorship? has so far been the Islamic State group. the instinctive feel to successfully fighters to the front. He set to be included in the solu- Unfortunately their books are (so far) Islam” (Rainer Hermann). Iraq law and economic opportunities, manipulate the conflict in the up a register called “The tion. More broadly, Lüders available only in German. and Syria became “the battle- members of the “Friends of the directions we want.” Network,” or Al Qaeda. It recommends that “anyone field of the Arab Thirty Years Syrian People Group” supplied Seeking the overthrow of a dic- was an early database for wanting to see Wahhabism, War of our time,” a “devastating weapons to the Syrian opposi- tator can be a worthwhile pursuit jihad and the foundation for Rainer Hermann: Al Qaeda and ‘Islamic State’ struggle between Wahhabi-Sunni tion, ostensibly to protect the if there is a suitable successor. his subsequent fight against Endstation weakened would do well to Saudi Arabia and Shi’ite Iran for demonstrators’ lives, but actually But who should succeed Bashar pro-Western governments, Islamischer Staat? recognize the Muslim Broth- regional hegemony.” to topple Assad. al-Assad? Of the country’s 60 first and foremost Saudi Staatsversagen erhood as an alternative.” 7. The US denationalized the oil 11. The US has supplied arms percent Sunni population, only Arabia, the US’s closest ally und Religionskrieg Steinberg, on the other industry, allowing US and Brit- to “moderate Islamists,” weapons one group would be in a position in the region. in der arabischen hand, writes that the US ish companies to receive explora- that frequently ended up with Al to take over, Michael Lüders Instead, Jeb Bush seems to Welt, dtv, should demand a “compro- tion licenses. In the view of many Qaeda or IS, such as the equip- writes. “Had the dictator really be listening to David Frum, 12,90 Euro mise with the Sunnis” from Iraqis, that amounted to theft. ment of the Iraqi army after it been overthrown, the jihadists senior editor at The Atlantic the new Iraqi government (Even a commentator on CNN practically melted away last year would be in power today in and a former speechwriter in Michael Lüders: of Haider al-Abadi and to said as much in 2013: “Yes, the against the jihadists. That Assad Damascus.” the George W. Bush adminis- Wer den Wind incorporate them into a new Iraq War was a war for oil, and it has not shied away from support- Democracy has its own risks tration. Frum writes: “After sät. Was westliche Iraqi national guard to deny was a war with winners: Big Oil.”) ing Salafists and jihadists to divide and side effects, and can produce a wrong decision, it’s the job Politik im Orient IS their support. In Syria, 8. The US accepted the fact that the opposition has not made the unwanted results. The removal of a leader to retrieve the anrichtet, Steinberg says the US is no Saudi Arabia, its most important situation any better. of democratically elected govern- consequences, not to waste C. H. Beck, longer working directly for ally in the region, di not stop the What can the West learn from ments or tolerating their removal, time and energy on regrets.” 14,95 Euro the overthrow of Assad. Yet Sunni tribes over which it has all this? as in Egypt, certainly does not Jeb Bush says: “What’s the he calls a continuation of much influence from “entering Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya enhance the credibility of those role of America going for- the regime unacceptable. a pact with the devil with IS” have demonstrated that democ- who hail democracy as the best ward? Are we going to pull Guido Steinberg: Hermann is more pes- (Rainer Hermann). racy cannot be imposed from form of government. back now and be defeatist Kalifat des simistic. The Arab Thirty 9. Turkey, a NATO member, the outside, and certainly not in The West is seeking to sup- and pessimistic or are we Schreckens. Years War is still in its apparently has the tacit approval states without a middle class or port “moderate” jihadists in their going to engage in a way that IS und die early stages, he writes. IS of the US to support IS, which is civil society. “We surely know fight against Assad. That does not creates a more peaceful and Bedrohung durch will not be its final phase. fighting three enemies of Turkey now from experience that the help credibility either. Nor does secure world?” den islamistischen In Europe’s Thirty Years at once: the Assad regime, the overthrow of dictators by force – it demonstrate that lessons have The German writers Terror, Knaur, War too, religion at some Shi’ite government of Iraq and especially by outside force – rarely been learned. In Afghanistan the appeal for new approaches: 12,99 Euro point no longer sufficed as a the Kurds. ushers in peace and demonstrably mujahideen received arms and Stopping the civil war sufficiently mobilizing force, 10. Following Bashar al-Assad’s better leadership,” writes Graham training for their fight against seems to be achievable only You can read Graham E. Fuller’s article Herrmann says. He believes, murderous response to demon- E. Fuller, former deputy chair- the Communist regime and its together with Assad. IS can at: http://grahamefuller.com/articles/ what matters is what will strators demanding the rule of man of the CIA’s National Intel- Soviet backers. These fighters likewise be defeated only follow IS. n June 2015 15

continued from page 13 The Security Times • Challenges Al Qaeda Here to stay hasn’t gone Jihadist organizations away continue to spread in Africa – mies at the same time – which often because of local conflicts explains its opposition to IS anti-Shiite violence. By Annette Weber IS on the other hand perceives itself as being in a world full mages from Iraq and Syria usually fill the vacuum created in of enemies, who must either and the reports of young the areas of security, jurisdiction toe the line or be destroyed as Islamic State (IS) fighters and social welfare – whether it “infidels”. This applies to the from Europe shape our is the village community, clans, US, the West as a whole, the Iview of Islamist terror groups. families, tribes or ethnic groups. governments of the Arab world, However, jihadist movements But jihadist groups are increas- the Jews, Christians, Shiites and are developing just as strongly ingly succeeding in this sphere too. even Sunnis who do not share in Africa, a continent that was This brings to light two funda- their jihadist interpretation of once a model for the peaceful mental problems in handling and Islam without reservation. IS coexistence of religions. Groups combating these groups. Firstly, supporters want to live in an like Boko Haram in Nigeria, the state is not in a position or is “Islamic state” and have no con- al-Shabaab in Somalia and unwilling to care for the popula- PICTURE ALLIANCE/AP PHOTO cerns about deploying any kind Kenya, MUJAO, Ansar al-Din tion in outlying areas; it therefore aged below 35. Their prospects Spectacular attacks on the elite African future? Jihadist of violence to stabilize this state. and AQIM in the Sahel, Tunisia surrenders this territory to the of finding a job after completing and on tourists in Tunisia (Bardo movements are spreading in IS could enjoy lasting suc- and Algeria and Islamic State in terrorists. Secondly, there is a very their training are slim. 2015; 2004) and in Kenya (West- Africa, where there is a lack of cess first and foremost because Libya have tens of thousands of close link between the jihadists The rapid advance of urbaniza- gate Mall 2013, Mombasa 2002), state order. In Nigeria, Boko its jihadist approach is more Haram terrorists have been fighters and supporters. They all and local social structures, as they tion in Africa is also an indica- on markets (Potiskum, Nigeria gaining territory. appealing than that of Al Qaeda, exploit local grievances in order recruit their members precisely tor that work in the agricultural 2015) and travelers are also as evidenced by the influx of to primarily recruit young men from these. sector is unattractive to young designed to instill a state of per- defend themselves against armed foreign recruits and the support to their ranks. When combating jihadist people. The millions of young manent terror in people, restrict groups or do not have any negoti- of many small groups in the Frustration, hopelessness and groups, it is therefore essential people who grow up in camps for their mobility and finally destroy ating powers with the state. Jihad- Arab world and South Asia. anger are catalysts that back up to create trust between the state refugees or displaced persons have revenues for the state, which is ist organizations offer the vision of But Al Qaeda’s strategy is by far the jihadist claims of paradise in and the population. The oppo- even fewer opportunities to carve viewed as a puppet of the unbe- a life in fraternal communities to the more promising, as it pays the afterlife and total power in site usually takes place in any out a future for themselves. lieving “crusaders”. oppose the state and even tradi- heed to its own weaknesses. this one. The root cause of the purely military action when civil- African jihadists successfully The prospect of controlling tional authorities – together with A terrorist organization cannot upheaval in Tunisia was the failure ians often suffer, too. The state, draw attention to the ostensible resources and exercising power the noble goal of spreading the take on half the world alone to fulfill promises regarding mod- which had been absent or had not ineffectiveness of education. over countries and groups of the pure and absolute truth. and hope for success in such an ernization. Economic marginaliza- been viewed as trustworthy, then Boko Haram’s name embodies population is coupled with the It is therefore necessary to undertaking. tion is the issue in northeastern becomes a direct threat. this principle; it means “West- perception of the threat posed understand why jihadist move- The differing strategies Nigeria; ongoing conflicts and the However, jihadist groups are ern Education is forbidden.” by Islam. The defense of Islam ments are so successful in order also impact upon the threat resulting hopelessness stimulate not only on the rise in against the morally corrupt West, to take the wind out of their sails. to Europe presented by both the violence in Somalia. Political weak states – Nigeria is a country’s own political elite They replace the corrupt or absent groups. Because IS is concen- power struggles are additional fac- a regional power, Tuni- and all those in theological error state with an “Islamic commu- trated on the establishment of tors in Northern Mali and Libya sia is the pattern for a Annette Weber is a legitimizes any kind of violence. nity”, where there are opportu- its “state,” it is first and fore- senior associate at the involving control over territory successful Arab Spring Middle East and Africa Division, The opportunity presented to the nities for fame and heroism for most a danger to Iraq, Syria and resources. Conflicts between movement and Kenya German Institute for International members of any terrorist group to all the fighters (mujahideen) and and its neighbors. Al Qaeda political elites, jihadist groups and is the economic pow- and Security Affairs (SWP). do the right thing for their faith power is redistributed. on the other hand continues to organized crime ensure that there erhouse in East Africa. and be part of a global movement Two things are necessary in focus on major attacks in the will be no easy solution in the In all these countries, MARC DARCHINGER is an explosive and highly success- addition to conducting mili- Western world and has shown short term. regions or groups of the ful mobilization strategy. tary campaigns against jihad- in Paris that it can succeed in Radical Islamists are spreading population have suffered discrimi- The abduction of the schoolgirls Protracted conflicts, homeless- ist groups: economic, political carrying these out. It can be anywhere where there is a lack nation or been marginalized, so from Chibok in 2014 and attacks ness in exile or the lack of any and social justice in distribution assumed that its Yemeni subsid- of state order, because no state enabling the jihadists to success- on schools and universities by prospects in refugee camps are processes and offering people iary is still planning attacks on existed for decades, as in Somalia; fully mobilize them. Boko Haram and al Shabaab an extreme burden on traditional real opportunities for the future. transatlantic flights. This means or because the state only holds This is particularly effective are designed to demonstrate that structures and family groups. Tra- They should be the major focus, that in the near future at least, sway in the capital, but not in the among young people. Two thirds Western promises related to edu- ditional authority structures lose particularly for those involved it represents the most dangerous rest of the country. Social bodies of the population in Africa are cation are pointless. their significance if they cannot from outside. n terrorist threat to Europe. n The United Nations Provides food to 90 million people in 80 countries Vaccinates 58 per cent of the world’s children, saving 3 million lives a year Assists over 38.7 million refugees and TACKLING GLOBAL CHALLENGESpeople fleeing war, famine or persecution AND HELPING THOSE IN NEED WorksSINCE with 1945 193 countries to combat climate change and make development sustainable

UN Keeps peace with 120,000 peacekeepers in The United Nations 16 operations on 4 continents Provides food to 90 million people in Fights poverty, helping improve the health 80 countries and well-being of 420 million rural poor Vaccinates 58 per cent of the world’s Protects and promotes human rights on site children, saving 3 million lives a year and through some 80 treaties/declarations Assists over 38.7 million refugees and Mobilizes USD 22 billion in humanitarian aid people fleeing war, famine or persecution to help people affected by emergencies Works with 193 countries to combat climate Uses diplomacy to prevent conflict: assists change and make development sustainable some 60 countries a year with their elections Promotes maternal health, saving UN Keeps peace with 120,000 peacekeepers in 16 operations on 4 continents the lives of 30 million women a year TACKLINGTACKLING GLOBAL GLOBALCHALLENGES CHALLENGES Fights poverty, helping improveAND the HELPINGhealthAND HELPING THOSE IN THOSE NEED INSINCEUnited NEED Nations1945 SINCE - Department 1945 of Public Information - 2014/2015 and well-being of 420 million rural poor Protects and promotes human rights on site and through some 80 treaties/declarations Mobilizes USD 22 billion in humanitarian aid to help people affected by emergencies Uses diplomacy to prevent70th conflict: Anniversary assists Special Edition some 60 countries a year with their electionswww.un.org Promotes maternal health, saving the lives of 30 million women a year

United Nations - Department of Public Information - 2014/2015

70th Anniversary70th Anniversary Special SpecialEdition Edition www.un.orgwww.un.org 16 June 2015

ver since last year when The Security Times • Challenges China’s actions, on the other satellite imagery con- hand, have complicated dis- firmed that China was putes. China’s construction of constructing artificial Beijing’s legal alchemy artificial islands directly sub- islandsE in the South China Sea, verts UNCLOS and represents journalists, security specialists a preemptive move against any and even government officials China is not reclaiming land, it is building artificial islands decision by the Arbitral Tribu- uncritically have adopted termi- as forward staging bases for its military | By Carlyle Thayer nal. China has changed “facts nology that obfuscates rather than on the ground” and presented clarifies the issues at stake. No China has repeatedly challenged the region with a fait accom- term has been so abused as “land flights by military aircraft from pli. China is already challenging reclamation” both in its everyday Spratly Islands the Philippines and the United the freedom of navigation and usage and legal meaning. All of the Spratly Islands are claimed States ordering them to leave overflight of naval vessels and A commentary written by Chi- by China, Taiwan and Vietnam; part of what Chinese military officials aircraft as well as fishermen in nese academic Shen Dingli argues them are claimed by Malaysia and the call a “military alert area” or a the area. For example, there are Philippines. Brunei has a maritime claim that there is no prohibition in in the area. The US does not recognize “military security zone.” If media current reports that a Chinese international law about land rec- these claims and considers the sove- reports are accurate that United warship fired at Filipino fisher- lamation. He cites the examples reignty of the islands to be in dispute. States warships have refrained men near one of China’s artificial of Shanghai city, Japan’s Kansai 0 25 50 75 kilometers from encroaching within 12 nau- islands. International Airport, Hong Kong tical miles of the artificial islands China’s construction activi- and Dubai. None of these exam- 0 25 50 75 nautical miles and US military aircraft have not ties have affected regional peace ples are comparable to what it directly overflown these features and stability because of China’s taking place in the South China then Chinese legal alchemy will repeated statements that the arti- Sea. have succeeded. ficial islands will serve defense Let’s be clear: China is not The second issue concerns the purposes. China has repeatedly reclaiming land in the South equivalency of China’s so-called proclaimed its right unilaterally China Sea in order to improve land reclamation with similar to declare and enforce an Air conditions on a land feature – an efforts by Vietnam, Malaysia Defence Identification Zone over island – that has deteriorated due and the Philippines. China argues the South China Sea. A Chinese the impact of the environment that the other claimants upset the commentator has gone so far or human use. China is dredging status long ago and China is only to argue China should confront sand from the seabed and coral catching up. The critical question Australian military aircraft flying reefs to create artificial islands. is what activities have been car- over the airspace above China’s China misleadingly states it is ried out since 2002 and for what artificial islands and if necessary reclaiming land on islands over purpose? shoot them down. which it has sovereignty. This is The Philippines has carried out China has reportedly ceased not the case. China is building land reclamation on Palawan. “land reclamation” on four of its artificial structures on low tide Palawan is a naturally formed features and moved to consolidate elevations (submerged features land feature and qualifies as an its presence by building piers, har- at high tide) and rocks. China island under international law. bors and multi-storey buildings. cannot claim sovereignty over The Philippines has sovereignty The construction of a 3,110 meter these features. These features are over Palawan and therefore may long runway on Fiery Cross Reef not entitled to maritime zones or legally reclaim land for whatever coupled with reports that a similar airspace. purpose. airstrip will be built at Subi Reef Artificial islands have a dis- The case of Vietnam is different. provide the infrastructure to sup- tinct meaning in international Satellite imagery of Vietnamese- port the deployment of all types of law. Under the United Nations occupied Sand Cay and West military aircraft in China’s current Convention on the Law of the London Reef, published by the inventory. Suddenly and at short Sea (UNCLOS) sovereignty over Asia Maritime Transparency notice China can transform osten- artificial islands can only be exer- Initiative (AMTI), indicates that sibly civilian and scientific facili- cised by a coastal state in its since 2010 Vietnam has expanded ties into forward staging bases for

Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). WIKIPEDIA/RONHJONES these features by 21,000 and military operations. Article 56 states, “In the exclusive 65,000 square meters, respec- The third issue relates to the economic zone, the coastal State tively. Does size matter? Journal- impact on the marine environment has…jurisdiction… with regard ists, academic commentators and by China’s construction activities. to ... the establishment and use government officials are quick to As a signatory to UNCLOS China of artificial islands, installations note that the scope and scale of is bound to protect the marine and structures…” Article 60 gives China construction dwarfs that of environment. Chinese officials the coastal state “exclusive right the other claimants. Vietnam’s so- repeatedly claim that they have to construct… artificial islands.” called land reclamation amounts taken into account the environ- And Article 80 extends this pro- to 1.9 percent of the area built mental impact of their construc- vision to artificial islands on a by China. tion activities and no harm is coastal state’s continental shelf. None of these commentators, being done. China’s assertions All seven of the features that including the AMTI, have put are challenged by Phillipine offi- China presently occupies and has “land reclamation” in the South cials as well as marine scientists. converted into artificial islands China Sea in proper context. Satellite imagery clearly shows are the subject of legal proceed- Secretary of Defense Ashton dredging marks on coral reefs ing brought by the Philippines Carter’s call for Vietnam to halt adjacent to where China is build- before the UN’s Arbitral Tribu- “land reclamation” is misguided. ing artificial islands. nal. The Philippines Notification The litmus test is not the extent No, China is not reclaiming and Statement of Claim argued of artificial construction but the land. China is building forward that under UNCLOS Mischief Johnson Reef South. intent behind this construction. staging bases on artificial islands Reef, McKennan Reef, Gaven PICTURE ALLIANCE/DPA/HO China and all of the other claim- for its fishing fleet, oil and gas Reef and Subi Reef are submerged that these features are submerged time zones. With the exception entitled to a 12 nautical mile ter- ants are signatories to the non- exploration vessels and mari- features and both Mischief Reef banks, reefs and low tide eleva- of the Paracels, China has not ritorial sea China’s zone would binding Declaration on Conduct time law enforcement vessels. and McKennan Reef form part of tions that do not qualify as islands promulgated any baseline over overlap a similar zone claimed by of Parties in the South China Sea When China completes building the Philippines’ continental shelf. under UNCLOS but are part of the features it occupies. Vietnam. The bottom line is that (DOC) agreed to in November its infrastructure, including long Further, the Philippines argued the Philippines continental shelf, all of these features are 2002. range radar, it will be only a that Scarborough Shoal, John- or the international seabed. contested and signato- Under the DOC the signatories matter of time before military son Reef, Fiery Cross Reef and The issue of China’s construc- ries to UNCLOS are agreed “to exercise self-restraint aircraft and naval warships make Cuarteron Reef are rocks under tion of artificial islands has been Carlyle A. Thayer enjoined not to take in the conduct of activities that their appearance. UNCLOS. All of these features befuddled by three other issues. is Emeritus Professor at the actions that would would complicate or escalate dis- In sum, China has succeeded lie within the Philippines’ EEZ or The first issue concerns China’s Australian Defence Force change the status quo. putes and affect peace and stabil- in legal alchemy by transform- Academy, Canberra. continental shelf. attempt to enforce its jurisdic- China’s assertions ity…” Quite clearly none of the ing UNCLOS into “international In summary, China considers tion over 12 nautical miles of of sovereign rights in land reclamation undertaken by law with Chinese characteristics.” these features to be islands in the water surrounding these arti- these circumstances the Philippines or enlargement This development will bolster UNSW CANBERRA legal sense and therefore claims ficial islands and the airspace represent a form of carried out by Vietnam rises to the China’s assertion of “indisput- not only sovereignty over them above these features. Chinese It should be noted that all legal alchemy in which China point of complicating or escalat- able sovereignty” over the South but a territorial sea, EEZ, conti- law requires the promulgation of of China’s artificial islands are attempts to convert submerged ing disputes and affecting peace China Sea. China is slowly and nental shelf and airspace above baseline prior to the assertion of located close to features occupied features and rocks into naturally and stability in the South China deliberately excising the maritime them. The Philippines argues sovereign jurisdiction over mari- by Vietnam. If these features were formed islands. Sea. heart out of Southeast Asia. n

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A newspaper from Germany June 2015 17

The Security Times • Challenges Innovative solutions Mischief reefs for the highest IT China’s new strategy and its behaviour in the South China Sea reveal its expansionist intentions | By Felix Lee security requirements. he first lines sound simply wanted to be better able ippines view China’s artificial harmless enough. In to fulfill its “international obli- islands as an aggression. late May, the Chinese gations,” such as in sea rescue But China’s leadership views Attacks on computers and networks are on the rise. Cyber crime leadership in Beijing operations, disaster control, Vietnam, which is also a Com- Tpresented a white paper outlin- marine exploration, weather fore- munist nation, first and foremost and data theft have dramatic consequences ranging from enormous ing a new strategy for the devel- casting and environmental pro- as an aggressor. This is because the economic damage to loss of image and customers. opment of its armed forces. The tection, said Admiral Sun Jian- Vietnamese are also creating their document speaks of “active guo, deputy chief of staff of the own islands, thereby reinforcing Years of work can be destroyed in minutes. defense” and the “expansion of People’s Liberation Army, also at their own claim to these marine the military for exclusively peace- territories – with the Rohde & Schwarz supports government, society and business ful purposes”. At first glance, support of the US. with IT solutions and encryption technology made in Germany. the government appears still to Ever since US President be adhering closely to the doc- Felix Lee is China correspondent Barack Obama turned trine set out by China’s great for the Berlin newspaper taz his attentions to the Ensure your security at: reformer Deng Xiaoping in the and lives in Beijing. He also runs Pacific region three the China blog on Zeit Online. early 1980s: the defense of the years ago, tensions with www.rohde-schwarz.com nation’s own borders and coastal China have been con- waters. He rejected an aggressive siderably heightened. PRIVATE foreign policy. But the Americans But other choices of phrase the Shangri-La Dialogue. He also are much better at selling their make the reader sit up and take criticized what he described as the policies to the outside world. notice: Suddenly there is men- aggressive actions of neighboring They present themselves as reli- tion of “China’s military presence countries. In its defense white able partners in alliances with beyond national borders,” of a paper, Beijing accuses “several” small nations, while China comes “combination of offshore waters neighbors of provocative behav- over as a bully challenging them defense and open seas protec- ior, claiming that they had been over their territory. While US tion,” And that China’s leader- “reinforcing their military pres- Defense Secretary Carter con- ship will give greater importance ence on illegally occupied Chinese ceded at the Singapore meeting to the navy and air force first reefs and islands”. And, the paper that other states were also estab- and foremost. According to the continues, the change in military lishing outposts in the region, he document, these will concentrate strategy comes in response to this. defended these actions by saying on “both defense and attack” in Although the reefs themselves that China had gone much fur- the future. So what is this then? do not serve any practical uses, ther, and that it was laying claim

Under construction: Fiery Cross Reef and Gaven Reef (below). ¸SITLine ETH Encryptor

¸SITGate L500 Next Generation Firewall PICTURE ALLIANCE/DPA/HO (2) PICTURE ALLIANCE/DPA/HO

A defensive military policy, or an it is thought that there are large to a much larger area than the aggressive one after all? reserves of crude oil and natural others. Beijing is feeling increas- A reality check of recent months gas beneath the seabed. But above ingly forced into a corner by shows: it is highly likely that all, the South China Sea is strate- Washington’s policy stance. a momentous paradigm shift is gically important. In the course of Indeed, the US takes every taking place in Chinese foreign the rapid economic expansion of opportunity to needle China. It policy. It appears to be anything China and South East Asia over regularly sends aircraft and naval other than peaceful. the past 20 years, it has in the vessels dangerously close to Chi- The clearest evidence of China’s meantime become the world’s nese territory, even close to the new military strategy can cur- busiest maritime trading route. Chinese coast, thereby demon- rently be seen in the island dispute More than half of global tanker strating that despite bolstering currently going on in the South traffic now passes through these its arsenals on a massive scale China Sea. Satellite images taken waters. in recent years, China’s military by the US think tank the Center The German government has continues to be no match for its for Strategic and International also now recognized the gravity US counterpart. Studies (CSIS) shocked South of the situation. Defense Minister In mid-May, one such scenario China Sea nations at the begin- Ursula von der Leyen, who was was made public when the US ning of the year. The photos, also present at the Singapore military took a team of CNN taken in the area of the disputed meeting, stressed that the crises reporters along on a surveil- Spratly Islands archipelago, show in Asia were also relevant to lance flight over the South China dozens of freighters loaded with Germany and Europe. “We live Sea. The reporters were able to excavators tipping sand and in a globalized world, in which capture the moment when the rubble onto the reefs and sand- we also create access to wealth ??? Chinese military bombarded the banks, and securing them with through free trade,” she said, aircraft with threats via radio. concrete to create new islands. adding that secure and stable “Such activities can lead to mis- Members of the US military are relations were a prerequisite for understandings and accidents,” a convinced that China is building, this. nervous representative of the Chi- among other things, a 3,000- China claims almost the entire nese People’s Liberation Army meter landing strip for military South China Sea as its territory could be heard saying. jets on this manmade land. “We and cites history in justification: Analysts from the independent all know that there is no military the area was already under Chi- think tank IHS Jane’s are still solution to the South China Sea nese control back in the 14th talking about a “PR war over the disputes,” US Defense Secretary century, says Beijing. On official South China Sea”. But they warn: Ashton Carter reprimanded the Chinese maps these borders run military upgrading and increas- Chinese in late May at the Shan- through regions that are practi- ingly bellicose verbal threats are gri-La Dialogue in Singapore, cally visible from the coastlines raising the risk of actual military Asia’s most important security of other countries. All of China’s engagement. “The prospect of a conference. neighbors reject this geographical naval battle between China and China rejected criticism of its perspective. Vietnam, Taiwan, the US is becoming a potential island building project. Beijing Malaysia, Brunei and the Phil- threat,” they say. n

15348.004_IT-Security_SecurityTimes-Juni15_143x530_e.indd 1 07.05.15 11:42 Uhr 18 June 2015 No solutionThe Security Times • Challenges in sight The EU’s plans for migrants pose problems | By Andreas Zumach

ore than 1,300 numbers to no more than 5,000 The EU is also planning to rein- Now, the EU is planning to The Libyan government, which Australian Navy in protecting the African migrants refugees in the paper presented force its ability to rescue migrants combat the people smugglers with was internationally recognized country’s territorial waters from drowned in the by the EU Commission are also at sea as a second measure. But military might. The first phase after the elections in 2011 and the arrival of boats full of asylum Mediterranean completely inadequate given the the proposal on the table is hardly envisages “identifying” their ves- has a seat and voice in the UN seekers. These kinds of measures inM April trying to reach Europe. size of the migrant problem.” credible: The funding for the pro- sels using drones, satellites and General Assembly, has already deprive migrants of the right and Over the first weekend in June, However, many believe that a gram proposed by Brussels is less other technical reconnaissance rejected the EU’s planned military opportunity to seek asylum in Italian, German and other navies quota system would at least rep- than €9 million per month, which equipment,” according to a cata- measures. Due to the internal a country, as laid down in the rescued 4,500 refugees; again resent some kind of progress in Italy spent on its “Mare Nostrum” logue of measures proposed by the violent conflicts, this government Geneva Convention. many others drowned. In the comparison to the Dublin Regu- maritime rescue mission from EU’s High Representative for For- has its base outside the capital Even the Australian Navy’s light of such repeated tragedies lation, which came into force in October 2013 to October 2014. eign Policy, Federica Mogherini, Tripoli, but it is still the country’s actions in the Pacific involv- at sea, the European Union plans 1997. According to this arrange- and approved by the 28 legitimate representative under ing the deportation of captured to revise its policy towards asylum ment, migrants must seek asylum Andreas Zumach is a freelance EU Foreign and Defense international law. Any military asylum seekers to internment in the EU country where they journalist and author based seekers. But many experts view at the United Nations in Geneva. Ministers. But how is action by the EU in Libyan ter- camps in Indonesia, to Cambo- the plans submitted by Brussels so first arrive or in whose territorial His new book entitled it possible to reliably ritorial waters or on the mainland dia and the island of West Papua far as inadequate and extremely waters they are picked up. They “Globales Chaos – machtlose UNO. differentiate between without the approval of this gov- violate the Geneva Convention. questionable. are not allowed to simply travel to Ist die Weltorganisation überflüssig smugglers’ boats and ernment would be a clear viola- The UN High Commissioner for geworden?” (Global Chaos – The EU Commission has sug- other EU nations. This regulation A Toothless UN. Has the World Body fishing vessels – particu- tion of international law. Refugees has still been refused gested a quota system that would has created an extremely unjust Outlived Its Usefulness?) larly when they are sail- The rival Libyan government entry to these camps. Amnesty distribute migrants to the 28 allocation of asylum seekers within has recently been published. ing the Mediterranean formed by Islamists has also International says the inmates are PRIVATE member states according to each the EU over the last 18 years. empty after discharging rejected any military action. Its subject to massive violations of country’s economic power, popu- More than 80 percent of all According to details published their would-be refugees in Europe? approval may not be necessary human rights. lation, jobless rate and the number asylum seekers come across the by the International Organization Mogherini did not have an under international law. But the The same also applies to the of migrants that each nation has Mediterranean. They first enter for Migration (IOM) based in answer to this question posed by EU would depend on the practi- internment camps where Libya’s already taken in. But refugee aid EU territory in Malta, Lampedusa Geneva, Mare Nostrum rescued journalists. A mandate from the cal cooperation of this body, as former dictator Muammar Gad- organizations and the Greens in and on the mainland of Italy, at least 150,000 asylum seekers UN Security Council will be neces- it controls significant parts of dafi incarcerated hundreds of the EU Parliament believe that Greece or Spain. Almost 20 per- from death by drowning. But a sary for the proposed second phase the Libyan coast, from which the thousands of African migrants simply making decisions on the cent try their luck across Turkey’s lack of financial involvement and – direct action against the human smugglers’ boats start their jour- until 2011 on the basis of an basis of these four criteria could land borders with Greece and logistical support by the other traffickers’ boats on the high seas ney with asylum-seekers. agreement with the EU and with lead to many incorrect results. Bulgaria. 27 EU member states, led the (boarding, searching and sinking). The current police and military funding from Brussels. This pre- “Sending a Syrian refugee But there are doubts whether the government in Rome to halt the The planned third stage involving measures used by the EU’s Fron- vented them from continuing their with relatives in Sweden ready quota system proposed by the EU sea rescue mission in October the destruction of human smug- tex organization since 2005 in journey across the Mediterranean to take them in to a completely Commission will actually be intro- 2014. The German government in glers’ boats in the territorial waters its attempts to prevent migrants’ to Europe. By supporting and foreign environment in France duced to replace the Dublin Regu- particular stirred up opposition to or on the coasts of Libya and other boats reaching the territorial financing these camps, the EU just for quota reasons would be lation. Eleven EU states – including “Mare Nostrum” within the EU, North African states bordering waters or the territory of EU states not only contravened the Geneva completely mad,” said Barbara Britain, the Baltic States and most asserting that the mission was the Mediterranean will require the are a violation of the Geneva 1951 Convention relating to the Status Lochbihler, the human rights eastern European nations – had “creating a bridge to Europe” for prior agreement of the govern- Convention relating to the Status of Refugees, but also the Euro- spokesperson for the Greens party already rejected the plan by the migrants and “making business ments of these countries, in addi- of Refugees. The same applies to pean Convention on Human group. “The plans to restrict the beginning of June. easier for human traffickers.” tion to a UN mandate. similar measures adopted by the Rights. n

IMAGO STOCK&PEOPLE/EPD Could a fixed quota system help the refugees? In 2014 Amnesty International used a paper boat installation to commemorate the hundreds of drowned and demanded safe pathways. The fog of peace Mitigating the messy conflicts of the 21st century requires political savvy | By Jean-Marie Guéhenno

he migrants trying to know that one bout of violence military action has not been fol- of Sierra Leone (after an initial to avoid its political responsibil- a political strategy. Most conflicts reach Europe give a avoided may save tens of thou- lowed by a well-thought out, and debacle) and Liberia has allowed ity. Nor can counterterrorism end with a negotiation, for which renewed urgency to the sands of lives, and more than inclusive, political strategy. those two missions – albeit in operations substitute for politics. you need interlocutors. debate on intervention: compensates many failures. That Second, force can play a criti- rather less challenging contexts – In Mali, a rushed political process What is needed is a combina- TCan there be islands of peace and may be why there has been no cal supporting role in a political to come closer to success. risks leaving out groups that may tion of humility, determination, prosperity in an ocean of turmoil sharp downsizing of UN peace- process but to do so it needs to be The Security Council remains then be pushed into the terror- and political savvy. Humility, and despair? For the last 15 years, keeping. As the head of UN applied early and intelligently. In ambivalent on the relationship ist orbit. In Libya, a military because there is a moral hazard the answer was a resounding no. peacekeeping for eight years, at Afghanistan, the US-led coalition between force and politics. The operation without reconciliation in pursuing overambitious and The unprecedented growth of UN the time of its fastest expansion, initially relied on warlords, aban- priority given to protection of between the two main centers of unsustainable goals of social peacekeeping operations, which I believe two important lessons doning Kabul and the countryside civilians – partly a reaction to power would most likely further engineering, and we need to saw the number of peacekeepers should be brought into the pres- to militias instead of fragment the country. scale down ambitions. Deter- deployed increase from a few ent debate. establishing a strong From Syria to Libya, from South mination, because abstention is tens of thousands to more than First, no amount of force, and impartial interna- Sudan to Congo, the West would not an option, and even limited 100,000, embodied a new activ- whether deployed by the UN, tional presence. When Jean-Marie Guéhenno like to have it both ways: using goals require a willingness to ism of the international com- US, or NATO, can in and of itself it became apparent is the president & CEO of the force without putting too many take risks, including through munity. stabilize a country. Stabilization that the Taliban were International Crisis Group. boots on the ground, and achiev- deployments of high capacity Today that confidence has is about politics. Too often in reconstituting, it had ing peace without risking serious forces in support of UN mis- been lost. Peacekeeping is seen the last 15 years, the focus has to play catch up. How- political engagement. That won’t sions. Political savvy, because as costly, complicated, and high been on the hardware of military ever, applying military ICC work. Protecting civilians from peace is usually achieved risk. Is the investment in blood deployments rather than the soft- force as well as engag- the sky has major limitations, through imperfect compromises and treasure worth it, when there ware of a smart political strategy. ing the Taliban was much more its abstention at the time of the and the developing countries that that avoid a binary opposition are so few obvious success sto- Peacekeepers, instead of provid- difficult once the initial window Rwandan genocide – can become provide the bulk of peacekeeping between them and us. ries? Should the priority shift to ing leverage, can actually become of opportunity had closed. a diversion: the creation a year troops are increasingly reluctant The fog of peace is as treacher- securing borders and conducting a disincentive for governments to The same can be said of the ago of a special brigade mandated to deploy in dangerous environ- ous as the fog of war, and it is targeted counterterrorism opera- conduct necessary reform. Democratic Republic of Congo. to protect the population of east- ments, leaving the UN reliant on high time for the international tions rather than pursuing the That is now the risk in Mali, The UN mission there was ern Congo from armed groups is interested parties with the risk of community to acknowledge that elusive goal of stabilizing coun- where President Modibo Keita, strengthened in response to crises, not a sustainable response. Civil- regionalizing war and losing its the messy conflicts of the 21st tries? elected and secure in his position, and it has become more robust at ians will be protected only when most critical asset, impartiality. century cannot be described and World leaders are not sure what sees little reason to open up politi- the time when its political capital there is a trusted Congolese state. Meanwhile destroying through resolved through the prism of to make of a decade and a half cal space and address the many is exhausted. On the contrary, a The Security Council cannot drone strikes the chain of com- simplistic non-political catego- of interventionism, even if they problems of his country. Decisive robust posture in the early days hide behind humanitarian goals mand of “terrorist” groups is not ries. n June 2015 19 Countering The Security Times • Challenges Putin’s disinformation campaign Germany’s international broadcaster Deutsche Welle (DW) launches a new flagship English-language news channel By Paul Hockenos

eutsche Welle, Germany’s Moreover, Deutsche Welle is restruc- state-financed radio and turing from within, devoting more television broadcaster, is resources to news programming in Eng- taking a big gamble. Its new lish, less to the programming it does in Dadministration thinks that a significantly 30 other languages, including German. revamped and beefed up multimedia The quantity of English-language news English-language service can one day shows is being upped from four hours to boost it into the league of the BBC – 13 a day. More correspondents are being and critically, in the short term, pose put on the ground in world hot spots. a counterweight to Russia’s powerful “We’re not going to be able to com- international broadcasting and propa- pete overnight with the big international ganda machines. broadcasters like CNN and BBC,” says For years, Deutsche Welle – with much Carsten von Nahmen, head of news smaller budgets – has lagged far behind programming at the DW. “But we’re the big-ticket international broadcast- taking a step in that direction,” he says ers like BBC and CNN. Despite its 60 referring to the relaunch planned for year history, Deutsche Welle has seen June 22. “BBC and CNN set the mark France 24 and Al Jazeera coming out for quality in the market. We want to of nowhere and overtake it in terms narrow the gap,” he says, and then of viewers, programming quality and hopefully in the future compete on the clout. first tier of international broadcasting. Russia Today (RT), Moscow’s state- The ascent of Limbourg has sparked directed broadcaster, is another new- anew a debate about what Deutsche comer. It appeared on the scene in 2005. Welle is and what it hopes to be. “In the Since then it has exerted significant past we didn’t focus so much on hard influence on world opinion, in particular news,” explains von Nahmen. “This on the topic of Vladimir Putin’s Russia will change. It’s important that there and its current conflicts with Ukraine be a German voice in the international and the West. The broadcasting venture television news market. We’re going and strong public relations campaigns to try to get there first and break some have helped Russia punch above its important stories,” he says. weight, collect allies and sympathizers, Von Nahmen says that the new DW and make the West look hypocritical. In News service can overtake the likes of Al IMAGO/JÜRGEN RITTER IMAGO/JÜRGEN eastern Ukraine and Russia, it has shored Jazeera, RT and China’s CCTV simply Small budget, big ambitions – the DW television center in Berlin. up support for the pro-Russian rebels on the basis of quality journalism, which in Ukraine and for President Vladimir none of these state-financed broadcasters But others, like Dusan Reljic, head of Reljic, a native of Serbia and expert on propaganda tool of the German govern- Putin’s leadership. can match. In particular, Deutsche Welle the German Institute for International Southeastern Europe, is skeptical. ment, just as Russia Today is of the Putin All the while, Deutsche Welle was hopes to win new viewers in places like and Security Affairs’ Brussels office, The region is particularly important administration? The issue has been hotly unable to forge a strong international Africa and Asia where English is widely thinks it’s a waste of money. ”I can’t see since countries like Romania, Monte- discussed in the Bundestag where MPs of profile with soft cultural shows about spoken. “This market has been domi- the added value that Deutsche Welle can negro, Serbia and Greece tend to lean the democratic socialist Left Party have German traditions and holiday loca- nated by Anglo-American broadcasters,” provide in the international television toward Russia on some political issues. objected to this trend. “I don’t want to tions – and steadily declining budgets. he says. “Al Jazeera broke into it and news market,” he says. But Reljic says that English-language see the Deutsche Welle become a mouth- But those days are over, says Peter now we want to, too.” One of Limbourg’s main arguments programming “doesn’t have a chance piece for the German foreign ministry,” Limbourg, Deutsche Welle’s director Deutsche Welle says it will do so by in seeking new funding was that a new in southeastern Europe.” Al Jazeera said Harald Petzold of the Left Party in general since 2013. Limbourg went to providing something that’s missing: a and improved Deutsche Welle is needed already has a Serbian-language program, the Bundestag. the mat with Berlin’s political class to German perspec- to counter Rus- while RT is planning one. Deutsche But Riecke thinks Deutsche Welle is up have the broadcaster’s budget increased, tive. During the sia’s global media Welle has for years translated radio to the task. “Deutsche Welle doesn’t twist though just to €274 million, less than 1 Iraq War in 2003, Paul Hockenos is a Berlin-based reach. Russia programming into Serbian and other reality the way RT does,” he says. “It is percent more than in 2014. Moreover, for example, writer who has been working Today broadcasts regional languages, but of late its fund- overseen by external bodies. There’s no in Germany and across Central Deutsche Welle has received additional Germany, which and Eastern Europe since 1989. in English, Span- ing for this has been scaled back. way that it will turn to the hate speech project funds (about €3.5 million) for opposed the war, He has contributed to ish, Arabic and “In Serbia it’s the young people who and disingenuous journalism of RT.” programming in Ukrainian and Russian. had a view dif- The New York Times, Newsweek, Russian. It claims tend to understand English the best The new profile of Deutsche Welle The latter has enabled it to expand its ferent from the The Nation, Foreign Policy. it has 700 million but they don’t watch television,” says also has adversaries within the organiza-

Russian-language program to full time Americans and PRIVATE viewers in more Reljic. “Older people tend to be the tion. Veterans at the broadcaster say it and the Ukrainian program to 18 hours the British, who than 100 coun- television watchers. But there’re not shouldn’t give up German programming a day, seven days a week. backed it. tries across the world. going to be open to Deutsche Welle in as its core function. In the past, German The issue of financing is sensitive as “I’m not really sure what a German "We’re currently experiencing an inter- any language.” language news had first priority and Deutsche Welle’s funding comes indi- perspective would entail,” admits Hen- national disinformation campaign by “Deutsche Welle is the lighthouse was then translated into English and rectly from the German taxpayer. The ning Riecke of the German Council Putin," the Christian Democrat poli- for Germany’s democracy around the other languages for the international German broadcaster currently has about on Foreign Relations. But he says that tician Roderich Kiesewetter told the world,” said Monika Grütters, Ger- programs. 1,500 full-time staff supported by 4,000 there’s growing interest around the globe Handelsblatt . "A strengthened Deutsche many’s Commissioner for culture and “This is one of the difficulties trying to freelancers. It is not widely watched in Germany – and German power in the Welle can effectively send information media, last year. “For some it is the only change something that has been around within Germany. Yet it boasts 100 mil- world. “These days people are more and signals of support to the people in connection to the free world.” for so long as Deutsche Welle has,” says lion viewers and listeners worldwide interested in what is happening in Ger- Eastern Europe, and also to the millions If its aim is to outdo the Russian media von Nahmen. “There’s a lot of tradition every week. many than, say, England,” he says. of Russians living abroad." and PR offensives, will it then become a and history that has to be overcome.” n

EUROPEAN DEFENCE

The European Defence Summit (EDS) is a 24h discussion format for senior decision makers from politics, the private sector and academia.

Taking place in Brussels on September 15–16, between the European Council on Follow us on Twitter: Join us on Facebook: Defence in June 2015 and 2016 NATO Twitter.com/ facebook.com/ Summit in Warsaw, the EDS offers an @MunSecConf MunSecConf ideal opportunity to follow up on NATO’s defence pledges from Wales and on the For more information, please visit us at conclusions from the European Council. securityconference.de 20 June 2015

The Security Times • Challenges „Germany needs to have a powerful Disputed fleet, to protect its trade and its mani- military fold interests in the most distant seas.“ This sentence was build-up part of an interview with the German Emperor Kaiser Wil- helm II, published by the Daily Telegraph in 1908. Many Ger- mans then welcomed the fleet plans. The satirical newspaper Der Wahre Jacob, however, mocked the Kaiser. The title of its cartoon: “An illustrious speech. We Germans are a people fond of we- apons and fond of war (...)” Britain’s opinion leaders condemned the construction of the German fleet, consi- dering it a military threat and a cause of

PICTURE ALLIANCE/AKG-IMAGES war. Global defense trends and the military balance in 2015 An assessment by the International Institute for Strategic Studies | By Bastian Giegerich and James Hackett

efense strategists and an example of hybrid warfare. following the May 2015 election, intimidate and open seams in increases, continue to attract downs from Iraq and Afghanistan policymakers con- While this term is nothing new, the UK ministry of defense is the coalition will require last- attention. Following a flurry of meant that US spending fell from tinue to grapple with the sophisticated blend of capa- likely to be less fortunate. ing multilateral attention. Long- new naval programs, from the some 47 percent of the global the challenges posed bilities observed in Ukraine, and There is a long way to go. term training and support for Liaoning carrier to destroyers, total in 2010 to around 38 per- byD an increasingly dangerous their rapid and synchronised European defense spending was both Syria’s non-IS rebels and more are underway. Arma- cent in 2014. The West still spent security environment. Multiple application, is novel. in 2014 cumulatively 8 percent Iraq’s security forces and broader ment has also improved. The more than half of global defense complex security crisis are testing Meanwhile, Russia continues lower, in real terms, than in 2010. government institutions will be 61 destroyer and frigate hulls outlays in 2014, though this was the scope and sustainability of to modernize its armed forces. If NATO’s European members required. That support will need in service in 2000 had less than down from two-thirds of global military capabilities. These capa- Russia’s rapid reaction forces were to implement the spend- to be combined with sustained 600 anti-ship and surface-to-air totals in 2010. bilities are increasingly techno- benefited from investment early ing target agreed at the Cardiff political efforts to regain the trust missile tubes between them; the Given this trend, and even logically advanced. They are also in the reform process. Reorga- Summit (2 percent of GDP by of Iraq’s Sunni minority. current fleet has almost trebled though some states have mar- growing in destructive power, and nization of the armed services 2024) they would have to close For regional states, particularly that number, with only 20 percent ginally increased their defense are proliferating. continues, as does investment in a spending gap that amounted to some in the Gulf, there is growing more hulls. The November 2014 efforts amid heightened security In defense spending terms, the new armor, ships, combat air- $100 billion in 2014. willingness to use force to address Zhuhai air show hightlighted the concerns, Western states will strategic center of gravity con- craft and guided weapons. Russia After the end of the Cold War, national security priorities, and FC-31 combat-aircraft prototype, have to more seriously weigh the tinues to move from the West to continues to test the Sukhoi T-50 many European states reduced not be solely nested within US-led a large ramjet powered super- optimum balance between their the Asia Pacific, and The Military fifth generation fighter aircraft, their armed forces as a result of coalitions. The Saudi-led opera- sonic anti-ship missile design, defense ambitions, deficit reduc- Balance 2015 confirms the decline and may be finalizing designs ‘peace dividends’. Between 1995 tion in Yemen is indicative of the CX-1, and a range of air-to- tion and military outlays. It is in European defense spending of a new long-range bomber. and 2015, main battle tanks in that trend. surface weapons being offered for clear that the demand for defense and the increase in Asian defense Its air and maritime capabilities Europe dropped from a total Regional defense spending was use on UAVs. engagement – and on occasion the expenditure. are again – after a near gap of of around 25,000 to just under already high. But growing insecu- Japan too has increased its exercise of military force – is not However, while only some 18 20-or-so years – being seen on 8,000, while fighters and ground rity and conflict have contributed defense budget, and continues diminishing. months ago, the concern was long-distance missions. attack aircraft decreased from to a further increase. to boost its military capabilities. It is unlikely that budget reali- about possible military conflict Real Russian defense Tokyo’s defense plans ties in the West will see forces in Asia, the salient strategic reality spending increases have include acquisition of grow once more, but that places since has been the re-emergence averaged 10 percent in F-35s, Osprey tilt-rotor a premium on policymakers and of conflict in Europe and the the three years to 2014. Bastian Giegerich is Director James Hackett is Editor aircraft, development defense planners providing a ever complicating and widening However, maintaining of Defence and Military Analysis of The Military Balance; of an amphibious force suitable force mix and spectrum nature of extreme Islamist terror- this rate of increase will at the International Institute Senior Fellow for Defence and and an expanded sub- of capabilities, and generating for Strategic Studies (IISS). Military Analysis at the IISS. ist groups’ activity in the Middle be difficult given the marine fleet. Australia is adaptive military and security East and Africa. deterioration in Rus- assessing the Soryu-class capacities – in terms of personnel This has prompted a shift in sia’s economy, and will as a possible replace- as well as equipment – able to IISS IISS the defense debate in Europe, and likely require political ment for its existing deploy rapidly and operate across leaders in a growing number of prioritization of defense while 5,400 to 2,400. The changes that Spending remains focused on submarines, but is also looking at all domains. States also have to European countries are now argu- focusing budget cuts on other some European governments have air defense and strike systems, French and German designs. Sub- ensure nimble electronic warfare, ing that the decline in European government spending areas. now started to implement will not particularly in the Gulf. In 2011, marines remain a key requirement information operations, cyber and spending cannot continue in light Russia’s continuing military lead to a reversal of this loss in average real defense spending for states across Asia. Vietnam strategic-communications capaci- of the growing security challenges modernization, its increasing ‘mass’ that accrued in previous growth in the Middle East and has started to receive its Kilo- ties so that they can operate in in Europe and in Europe’s near display of modernized mili- years. North Africa region was 3.5 per- class boats from Russia, and India, the information realm as well as abroad. tary platforms, and actions in hile a revisionist Russia cent. In each year since, the IISS South Korea, Indonesia and Sin- in military theaters. Meanwhile, vents in Ukraine over the last Ukraine, have worried many Whas challenged the Euro- estimates it has increased by an gapore are also upgrading their armed forces remain involved not Eyear, and the erosion of vir- European states – particularly pean security order, the threat average of 10 percent. submarine forces. just on traditional military tasks, tually all trust between Western those in Europe’s east. Save from extreme Islamist terrorists Further east, defense investments merging economies have con- but also on missions as wide-rang- powers and Russia, have shaken either increased or pledged to increased. The rise of the Islamic in Asia continue to rise. Since Etinued to escalate their defense ing as humanitarian assistance the post-cold war European settle- increase defense spending; and in State (IS) and the flow of jihad- 2010, spending increasing by more spending. In 2014 these increases and disaster relief and pandemic ment. response to their worries NATO ists in and out of various Middle than a quarter in nominal terms more than offset Western reduc- response. These missions remain Throughout this crisis, Russia has launched a package of ‘reas- East theatres of war has become – growing to more than $340 tions. Overall, real global defense global in scope and complex in has shown its determination to surance’ initiatives. a major pre-occupation for Euro- billion in 2014. China’s defense expenditure in 2014 rose by 1.7 execution. use force and support the use of There are signs that the more pean states. Military successes on spending continues to outpace that percent after three years of reduc- In 2014, the IISS highlighted force by others in Ukraine. The challenging strategic environ- the part of IS galvanized a US-led of its neighbours’. In 2010 China tions. However, this trend may the challenge to defense planners methods applied included the ment is shifting budgetary priori- coalition into launching airstrikes accounted for around 28 percent moderate this year in light of fall- from a fractured and complex use of military and non-military ties, particularly in northern and against the jihadi movement in of the Asian total; by 2014 its ing oil prices, the stagnation of security environment. In 2015, tools in an integrated campaign eastern Europe. In 2015, defense Iraq and also in Syria. share had increased to around 38 the Russian economy and slowing this state of affairs is more threat- utilizing, for instance, sophisti- allocations in Europe’s leading Coalition air operations may percent. In contrast, Japan’s share global growth. ening. Insecurity, violence and cated and rapid information and military players have started to lead to tactical victories against of regional military outlays fell The reduction in Western the use of military force are all electronic warfare operations; as move as well. In France and Ger- IS but they cannot inflict strategic from 20 percent in 2010 to just less defense spending remains strik- increasing; the ‘arc of instability’ well as covert and occasionally many, it looked like the hitherto defeat on the group. Counter- than 14 percent in 2014. ing. Reductions in the US base is widening, and military crises overt military and intelligence downward trajectory in defense ing IS’s information operations, China’s military procurements, and overseas contingency opera- do not seem to end, but rather action. This has been termed spending might change. However, designed in equal measure to supported by these budget tions budgets following the draw- multiply. n June 2015 21 ExpensiveThe Security Times • Challengesdefense EU military spending rises in the wake of the Ukraine Crisis | By Sam Perlo-Freeman

he political and military ing is severely compromised by 38 percent in real terms between the annual defense budget of $650 increased military expenditure to the threat of terrorism rather crisis in Ukraine has led systemic corruption. 2005 and 2014, including a 13 million, or about 12 percent, by sharply in the years leading up to than to the Ukraine crisis. There to a major reassessment percent increase in 2014. A further the end of the five to seven years’ and following NATO membership have been no announced changes of threat perceptions increase of 19 percent in real terms Defense Planning Period (starting in 2004, only to cut it sharply to the UK’s existing plans (part of andT military strategies in much of is budgeted for 2015. in 2015). Since then, the Govern- again during and following the long-running austerity measures) Europe. Increased threat percep- The reasons for this are that ment and three opposition par- global financial and economic for a modest cut in the 2015–16 RUSSIA tions have led to calls in Europe Poland largely avoided the eco- ties agreed in March on a further crisis in 2008. In the last two defense budget. In general, the for higher military spending and, nomic fallout from the 2008 finan- increase of $1.2 billion spread over to three years spending has been pattern is of increases in military in particular, a renewed commit- Military spending in Russia cial crisis; and has been willing five years compared to the exist- increasing once again, and the spending in most central European ment by NATO members to spend increased by 8.1 percent in real to invest in its military, engage ing plans. The events in Ukraine Ukraine crisis is further spurring and some Nordic countries, but at least 2 percent of their gross terms in 2014 to $84.5 billion. in NATO and US-led this trend. Budgets for 2015 show falling or flat spending in west domestic product (GDP) on the Modernization of the Russian military operations a continued increase in military European countries. Sam Perlo-Freeman is a military. armed forces has been a major and host the US bal- Senior researcher at the spending in all three countries and SIPRI’s provisional estimate for priority since 2011, with the aim listic missile defense Stockholm International some degree of convergence: Ukraine’s military expenditure in of rearming 70 percent of the program (largely due Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) • a 7.3 percent increase in Esto- 2014 is $4.0 billion, an increase in armed forces with new equipment to historical fears of and Head of SIPRI's work nia, to $436 million; on Military Expenditure real terms of 23 percent compared by 2020. This effort intensified Russia). Planned well • a 14.9 percent increase in NATO in the Arms and Military FOTOLIA/ALEX DEMESHKO to 2013, and 65 percent compared in 2014 with increased deliveries before the start of the Expenditure Programme. Latvia, to $269 million; and to 2005. However, this estimate of new equipment. A substantial Ukraine crisis, events in SIPRI • most dramatically, a 50 per- The September 2014 NATO may not fully include war costs increase in military spending – Ukraine have prompted cent increase in Lithuania, to $480 summit in Wales was NATO’s and the final figure is likely to be around 15 percent in real terms the Polish Government to seek have also prompted Sweden to million. first major response to events in higher. – to $76 billion is budgeted in to accelerate aspects of a new seek increased military coopera- Ukraine. As well as producing a SIPRI’s figures for Ukrainian 2015. Almost all of the increase 10-year military modernization tion with NATO and its neighbors. ‘Readiness Action Plan’ designed military spending are considerably is earmarked for procurement, plan from 2013–22. The Polish In August 2014, Sweden signed a to improve NATO’s ability to higher than most other sources as which is set to increase by over Ministry of Defense budget for memorandum of understanding respond to the crisis, member they include spending on 60 percent in 2015 and to remain 2015 amounts to $9.9 billion, with NATO on ‘host nation sup- WESTERN EUROPE states ‘pledged’ to increase their 1) the paramilitary border guard at this higher level in 2016 and about 2.1 percent of Poland’s pro- port’ that would allow NATO military expenditure to NATO’s – which has been directly involved 2017. jected GDP in 2015. troops to be deployed to Sweden Despite the strong condem- long-standing target level of two in the fighting in the east; Most or all of the increases under certain circumstances. nations of Russian actions in percent of GDP over 10 years. 2) interior ministry troops; and were planned before the Ukrai- Sweden has also proposed enhanc- Ukraine and the defense policy The long-term, nonbinding nature 3) military pensions, a legacy of nian crisis and the 2014 economic ing the Nordic Defense Coopera- responses taken by NATO, there of the pledge represents a com- the Soviet era. crisis. Falling oil and gas prices tion (NORDEFCO) and extending has been little change in military promise between countries that For 2015 Ukraine has announced and economic sanctions have SWEDEN it to Baltic states. spending budgets and plans in were pushing hard for increases a massive increase in military reduced state income dramatically Western Europe, especially among to military spending (mainly the spending with a total budget for and led to a major devaluation Sweden made significant post- the largest spenders. France’s USA) and others that were more ‘defense and security’ mounting to of the rouble. As a result, the Cold War reductions in military core defense budget is constant in reticent (especially Canada and $4.1 billion, of which: initial defense budget for 2015, spending and its armed forces, nominal terms in 2015. Both the Germany). • $1.8 billion will be for the which was $80 billion, was cut which were reoriented from ter- BALTIC STATES German and Italian defense bud- Unless tensions with Russia regular armed forces, compared by around 5 percent in the revised ritorial defense toward partici- gets are marginally down, in line escalate significantly, it seems to 15 billion budgeted in 2014; budget presented in March 2015. pation in overseas peacekeeping Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania with previously announced plans unlikely that many NATO mem- • $318 million for the newly cre- operations. Concerns over Rus- are among the smallest members as part of austerity measures. bers will meet this target. The ated National Guard, compared sia’s actions in Ukraine have been of NATO in terms of population, However, in February 2015 Ukraine crisis may well mark to 1.5 billion in 2014; and heightened by a number of con- GDP and military spending, but Germany announced plans to raise a break in the trend of falling • an additional $273 million in firmed and suspected incidents in – given their geographic location military spending in the medium military spending in western and state guarantees for the Ukrainian POLAND the Baltic involving Russian mili- and history of Russian rule – have term, although the increases might central Europe. Even where coun- arms industry. tary forces, which have prompted long sought to establish them- not start until after 2016. In April tries are not immediately revising Despite 14 percent inflation, In contrast to most of west- questions as to the adequacy of selves as serious contributors to 2015, France also announced a plans, there is growing pressure the budget for the regular armed ern and central Europe, Poland Sweden’s military capabilities. NATO. Events in Ukraine, as well small increase of $4.3 billion over on NATO members to at least forces will more than double in is likely to exceed the NATO 2 A May 2014 report by the Swed- as numerous incidents involving the period 2016-2019 (about 3 maintain, and if possible increase, real terms. However, the effective- percent target in 2015. Poland’s ish Parliament’s Defense Commis- Russian, have heightened their tra- percent compared to previous their military spending in keeping ness of Ukrainian military spend- military expenditure increased by sion recommended an increase in ditional fears. All three countries plans), although this was linked with NATO commitments. n

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he vast majority of The Security Times • Challenges and levels of trust between the people in society use cooperating partners. We will only the Internet daily, often be able to meet the future chal- via their smartphones Together lenges adequately if we pool our whileT traveling. People buy goods abilities and resources. and services in online shops, send This is equally true for the tweets and have “friends” in social police; that is why competence networks. Many of them can no centers are a key part of our strat- longer imagine communication against cybercrime egy. Along with many cooperating and social interaction without the partnerships between the authori- Internet. We can only make the Internet safer if business, ties and private enterprise which Business also uses the web. Vast help to protect us against dangers numbers of business processes are politicians and security authorities work together | By Holger Münch on the Internet, Germany’s federal now based on the Internet, using criminal investigation authority it as their central infrastructure; new, criminal “business models” untraceable financial crimes, for the home and factory, and be combatted and punished if is also involved in institutional- some companies rely wholly on – and the trend is growing. So market manipulation, industrial the “Internet of things” generally, there is close cooperation between ized public-private partnerships, the Internet to sell their products. is the damage. The number of espionage and the loss of intel- make modern IT, data processing business and the authorities. That for instance, with three German The proportion of e-commerce in unreported cases is immense. The lectual property. The study con- and the Internet an even more includes the reporting of attacks banks in the German Compe- total sales within the European Office of Criminal Investigation cludes that cybercrime is a grow- essential part of our everyday lives and the passing on of comprehen- tence Center against Cyber Crime Union was 15 percent on average for the state of Lower Saxony ing industry with high sive information by businesses. If (G4C). in 2014, according to the Euro- determined in 2013 that only 9 returns and relatively that does not happen, the crimi- An effective, targeted exchange pean statistics office Eurostat. In percent of cybercrime cases were low risks. nals cannot be caught and there of information and analysis Germany, the proportion was 13 reported to police. The continuing digi- Holger Münch is the President can be no development of methods between globally-connected part- percent, while in Ireland it was According to a study by the talization of our world of the Bundeskriminalamt, to prevent such attacks. ners from the fields of business, more than half all sales (52 per- Center for Strategic and Inter- – and the consequences Germany’s federal We need to form interdisciplin- politics, security services, and the crimefighting authority. cent). national Studies (CSIS) and the – are comparable with ary networks – between the police wider society plays an important The net is also a place for crime; IT security provider McAfee, the the effects of the first and other authorities, between role in developing an awareness of criminal activities cause consid- annual cost of cybercrime around industrial revolution BKA the authorities and businesses, the risks, which in turn provides a erable damage. Many conven- the world is between 100 and some 200 years ago. across the world of commerce, at basis for us to respond appropri- tional crimes can also be carried 500 billion US dollars. The cost One result of increasing electronic than ever. This opens up chances the state, federal, and European ately to constantly-changing areas out in cyberspace – fraud, for of cybercrime in Germany was communication and commerce is for criminals in many new areas. levels, and beyond. A compre- of danger and to come up with instance. Greater use of technol- estimated to be 1.6 percent of that there is a steady stream of Businesses are targeted by cyber- hensive exchange of information preventative strategies. Security is ogy, the outsourcing of business GDP in 2013 – putting Germany new opportunities for criminals criminals, foreign secret services, increases the competencies of all an essential feature of the German processes and a growing number in an unenviable first place. The with both financial and ideologi- and competitors seeking an unfair those involved, as well as raising economy and we must work to of Internet users opens the door to costs were incurred chiefly via cal motives. Intelligent systems advantage. These dangers can only the awareness of responsibility ensure it. n

The days of coal are numbered Climate protection starts with renouncing fossil fuels – and using energy more effectively | By Stephan Kohler

The days of coal are numbered. A brown coal power station in Schkopau, Saxony-Anhalt.

IMAGO STOCK&PEOPLE/RAINER WEISFLOG he international energy nomic growth and its structure, ingly supply China with oil and The financial markets are now introducing a future climate and are all required to achieve effi- markets, particularly political interference (e.g. how gas too, not least because of having serious misgivings about energy strategy. The countries ciency potential. oil and natural gas, OPEC behaves), wars and civil the Western economic sanctions the continued use of coal, too. attending the climate conference Those involved often lack the have developed in an wars (e.g. Iraq, Libya), sanctions as a result of the Ukraine con- The Norwegian State Fund has in Paris should reach an agree- necessary capital and the exper- interestingT way over the past few (Iran), environmental disasters flict. This competition between decided to no longer invest in ment on this. There is a need to tise. It is therefore necessary to months. A decline in the price of (hurricanes), the development and Europe and Asia for energy corporations that are involved finally define a clear development introduce a program for develop- oil to $50 per barrel was incon- use of new drilling techniques sources will increase. in the coal business. Oil and gas path for global CO2 emissions. ing energy efficiency in addition to ceivable even a short while ago, like fracking or those designed to Future climate protection policy conglomerates are supporting a The International Energy any global CO2 levy. This means although an oil price above $50 tap into deposits out at sea or in will be crucial for the ongoing global CO2 levy to protect the Agency (IEA) has demanded the investments in training, providing was considered absolutely det- Arctic regions. development of energy markets. climate in the run-up to the con- following in its World Energy investment funds and developing rimental to the global economy Liquid natural gas (LNG) is also Germany and Europe plan to ference. Outlook: CO2 emissions amount- innovative energy services. This at the beginning of this century. expected to exert a major influ- reduce their CO2 emissions by It is conceivable that climate ing to approximately 30 gigatons will open up new business oppor- However, the price of oil has ence on the international natural 40 percent and 20 percent respec- change will increasingly domi- (GT) in 2010 must be reduced to tunities for energy corporations always been subject to major fluc- gas markets, where similar trad- nate the development 22 GT by the year 2035. and create skilled jobs around tuations. In November 2001, a ing conditions could be created of energy markets. The This would require a major the globe. barrel cost about $17; the price to those governing the oil market major focus is on the reduction in the use of fossil This efficiency strategy will rose to a maximum figure of $147 – i.e. global trade, which does Stephan Kohler is the managing use of fossil energy energy sources. Coal would have mean a fall in demand on the partner of EnergyEfficiencyInvest- in August 2011; it had fallen not depend on pipelines. This is Eurasia GmbH and a member of sources. They are to be replaced first, as it generates fossil energy markets and there- to $35 by December 2008 and particularly interesting for Euro- the committee of the World Energy believed to be respon- the highest CO2 emissions when fore greater pressure on prices Council with a focus on Germany. then exceeded the $100 threshold peans, who hope that they can sible for the growing being converted into energy. or falling prices. The CO2 levy is again during 2011. reduce dependency on Russia for number of storms with However, coal is almost always therefore essential in order not to These fluctuations often cause imports of natural gas through their enormous poten- cheaper than oil and natural gas, jeopardize the cost-effectiveness FRANK PETERS huge social and economic damage, pipelines by switching to LNG. tial to do damage, it is available around the world of efficiency measures. either for the oil-producing nations This was the reason why the tively by the year 2020, although hurricanes and tornados with and it will be so for several hun- However, the CO2 levy will not or for consumer countries. Both speech by Iranian Energy Min- Germany is shutting down all its wind speeds previously unknown dred years to come. This also help organize the switch in energy oil suppliers and customers had ister Bijan Namdar was eagerly nuclear power plants at the same (350 km/h) and the intense and helps ensure reliable supplies. sources from coal to natural gas; adapted to a price of about $100 awaited at the Energy Security time. At their Elmau Summit, long-lasting disasters caused by The CO2 emission goals can the price differences are simply too for more than three years and had Summit held in Berlin in May the G-7 agreed to reduce CO2 drought and periods of extreme also be achieved by higher high. The CO2 levy will not pla- accepted that it would remain at 2015. Iran is one of the world’s emmissions by 40 to 70 perecent heat, not least in the US and degrees of energy efficiency and cate energy markets overall either, this level. With this high price, countries with huge natural by 2050. India. energy savings, according to the although falling demand might the suppliers of natural gas and resources and it has consider- It will therefore be interesting Foresight is better than com- IEA’s World Energy Outlook, reduce dependency on fossile fuels coal also had reliable markets able deposits of oil and natural to see what is agreed at the World bating damage; many countries but this would only create half and their market dominance. and a good revenue situation, gas. How will Iran behave after Climate Conference in Paris in the cannot afford the latter anyway. the necessary reductions in CO2 Energy efficiency is particularly renewable energy sources were the lifting of Western sanctions? fall. If delegates adopt ambitious The poorest people in the world by the year 2020. Therefore, the important so that any increase economically more attractive and Namdar made it very clear that climate protection goals for the suffer the most. highest priority should be given in demand for natural gas and many countries decided to adopt Iran will not construct any pipe- whole planet, it will be necessary The world cannot afford to to introducing these efficiency oil triggered by climate policy major subsidy programs to reduce lines to Western Europe and LNG to reduce the use of coal to a allow this to happen. Climatolo- goals. does not trigger risks regarding their dependence on fossil energy exports will target markets with significant degree in the future. gists generally agree now that the Can these efficiency goals be energy supplies or energy prices sources and meet goals designed the highest price levels – i.e. not These kinds of political decisions average global temperature must achieved through a global CO2 that are no longer acceptable. to protect the climate too. Europe, but Asia. against the use of coal have an not be allowed to rise by more levy, with higher energy prices Climate policy must not create a However, oil and energy prices China has already signed long- effect on the energy mix and they than 2 degrees Celsius by the that lead to greater savings? This situation where developing coun- are not stable. They are subject term energy supply agreements would trigger greater demand for year 2100. This goal provides a is only true to a certain extent. tries no longer have any economic to many influences: global eco- with Iran. Russia will increas- oil and natural gas. reliable basis for determining and Expertise, technology and capital prospects. n June 2015 23

aber Strike is the name of The Security Times • Challenges Cyber defender: German Defense the military maneuver con- Minister Ursula von der Leyen at the NATO Cooperative Cyber ducted by several NATO Defence Centre of Excellence states in Lithuania. The (CoE). Sexercise is due to run for three weeks in June and train NATO part of NATO’s core activities of partners in military cooperation collective defense.” It is now con- on their northeastern flank. And sidered possible for a cyberattack although the name may sound old- to activate Article 5 of the NATO fashioned, this maneuver includes charter, under which an attack on elements of the war of the future. one NATO member is considered Some of the soldiers active in an attack on all members. Saber Strike will be fighting off The Estonian Aare Reintam, attacks in the virtual world – prac- who is preparing the Closed ticing for cyberbattle. Shields cyberattack drill, explains The Baltic States are the ideal that members of the Center – place to train for cyber war. Esto- and they alone – are “on the red nia, the smallest and northernmost side,” that is, they are playing Baltic State – with barely more the role of attackers. The actual than 1.3 million inhabitants – has maneuver participants, military implemented new electronic meth- and civilian IT specialists from ods comprehensively in admin- many NATO countries, make up istration and government com- the “blue team” for each nation munication. And Estonia was the on the other side. first country to become the target The Center provides comput- of a cyberattack – in 2007, when ers and software for the duration the websites of many authorities, of the exercise. The teams have

ministries, and trading banks were GAMBARINI PICTURE ALLIANCE/DPA/MAURIZIO to ensure, for instance, that the blocked and unusable for nearly fictitious websites of their nation a day. cannot be shut down or altered, It is likely the attack came or that undesired or misleading from Russia – but this cannot be e-mails can be stopped from going proven. Estonian politicians and Defending the Internet into email accounts. For two days military commanders are wary there is “no mercy for the blue even today of pointing the finger NATO prepares for cyberwar with new centers in the Baltic States side,” Reintam says with a grin. at Moscow. But there is no doubt And he stresses that “we are only that in response to the attack, By Johannes Leithäuser practicing defense here.” The aim, the Estonian capital Tallinn was he says, is simply for the partici- chosen as NATO’s Cooperative fought on the Internet, where their exclusive circle. The cen- line is not the Internet blackout for the drills that the Cybercenter pants to learn how to shield their Cyber Defense Center of Excel- social media allows large groups ter’s German chief of staff Jens that Estonia suffered in 2007. now carries out. There is a weak information networks against lence in May 2008. Today, 50 to be mobilized and manipulated. van Laak, recently announced Rather, the experts are focus- spot wherever military computers attack. NATO, he adds, does not officers, civilian researchers and NATO’s information experts in that his cyber fighters would be ing on the attacks on Georgian use data from outside of closed carry out attack maneuvers. technicians are on the staff of Riga have just released their first taking part in all future cyber military databases less than a year systems, such as when they access Janis Karklins, the head of this think tank, which aims to study – an analysis of Putin’s pro- security drills which GPS from the field or exchange NATO’s Strategic Communi- shed light on the opportunities paganda war during the Ukraine NATO organizes as messages. cations Center in Riga, has a and dangers the Internet holds crisis. Their cyber colleagues in part of its “reinsurance The work at the Estonian similar message. His agency dis- for NATO. Tallinn have been at work some- policy” program in the NATO center received even covered and disproved claims by Johannes Leithäuser is on the The Atlantic Alliance has more what longer, exploring the nature eastern member states. Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung’s more weight at the last NATO the Moscow-based Russia Today than 20 such centers of excellence. of possible attacks from the depths “We won’t shut down editorial staff in Berlin. summit in Wales in September broadcaster that the NATO Placing new ones in the Baltic of the Internet. For more than five communications, we 2014, which placed cyberattacks cyberspecialists in Tallinn were States also serves a demonstrative years, they have been holding an don’t want to block in the same danger category as helping Ukrainian hackers. Kark- purpose. Along with the cyber annual exercise dubbed Closed the entire exercise,” WONGE BERGMANN attacks with conventional weap- lins says that it is not his institu- agency in Estonia, the NATO Shields, which has become the van Laak said. But the ons. The relevant resolution says tion’s job to develop information Strategic Communications Center world’s biggest simulated attack aim would certainly be to dis- later, when Georgia had become that cyberattacks could “reach strategies without taking into of Excellence in Riga, the capital on virtual networks. This year, rupt Internet-driven systems – a involved in skirmishes with the a point where they jeopardize account their correlation with of neighboring Latvia, deals with teams from 18 countries are contingency expected to occur in Russian military. prosperity, security and stability the facts. “We have to stick with the effects of targeted strategic taking part in the operation. real conflicts. Van Laak does not give much at the national and Euro-Atlantic the truth,” Karklins says. “Our information. The propaganda But for the first time, NATO’s The real-life case the cyberwar detail about these scenarios, yet level.” It adds that for this reason toolbox is fairly limited in that war, too, is increasingly being cyberdefenders have opened up experts are using as a guide- they provide a realistic template cyberdefense will in future be “a respect.” n 15-06-09_021_ID178_eAZ_Lake_Mead_Security Times_IsoNews_290x260_RZgp

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