The Security Times June 2015
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SPECIAL EDITION OF THE ATLANTIC TIMES FOR THE MSC CORE GROUP MEETING IN VIENNA June 2015 Berlin All smiles before the G-7 meeting at Elmau: David Cameron, Angela Merkel, Barack Obama, Stephen Harper, Donald Tusk, Shinzo Abe, François Hollande, Matteo Renzi and Jean-Claude Juncker. PICTURE ALLIANCE/GEISLER-FOTOPRESS In this issue With or The limits Frozen conflict 2-4 What does Ukraine’s future look like? And what goals is Vladimir Putin pursuing? without Russia of summitry Dmitri Trenin, Michael Stürmer and Egon Bahr give their answers. The task: Resolving the Ukraine crisis Is the G-7 still fit for purpose in a changing By Wolfgang Ischinger geo-political landscape? | By Theo Sommer Senseless sanctions? 5, 6 European states are betting on sanctions he focus on the annexation That would not only strengthen the he world is out of joint, and annoying disturbance of public order? to solve the Ukraine conflict. Eckhard Cordes of Crimea and the military EU’s ability to act effectively, it would there is nobody to set it right. Wouldn’t it have been less trouble if is concerned about the damage to Europe’s conflict in Eastern Ukraine, also send an unmistakable signal to Under the violent impact of the leaders had met on a battleship (like own economy and pleads for diplomacy on the conflict with Russia, Moscow. Islamism, state structures in Roosevelt and Churchill, or Reagan and Thas tended to obscure the view of the Secondly – what about delivering Tthe Middle East and North Africa are Gorbachev) or on a cruiseliner far out instead. Mark Leonard disagrees – he says sanctions have the grammar of commerce second, equally great or greater danger arms to the Ukrainian military? Mili- unraveling. Wars of religion shake up in the ocean? The Süddeutsche Zeitung but the logic of war. for Ukrainian stability, namely that of tary support for Kiev, supporting the parts of Black Africa. Perilous con- newspaper dubbed the G-7 summit a economic collapse. Ukraine is facing rehabilitation and democratization of frontations are building up in the Asia- “superfluous ritual” and asked: “What a twofold strategic challenge: that of the Ukrainian armed forces would need Pacific region. And 25 years after the is the point of all this unnecessary Working together 7 partition, and that of bankruptcy. to be part of a comprehensively coor- end of the Cold War in Europe, armed nonsense?” Europe’s security envi- The hard truth is that neither dinated political process – because no conflict has returned to the Old World Summit meetings like Elmau won’t ronment has drastically Ukraine’s territorial integrity and one will benefit from renewed escala- – hybrid, not total war, but violent change the world. First of all, they changed. Instability in the political and military security, nor tion of the conflict. On the other hand, nevertheless. are gatherings of the like-minded. The region requires a compre- its long-term economic rehabilitation we should not make a taboo out of Old certainties have evaporated in the troublemakers are not there – which hensive and more flexible can be realized while the country is military aid to Ukraine – a defenseless process: that Europe is irrevocably on makes proceedings less irksome but approach by the EU, involved in a sustained conflict with Ukraine could also present a threat to the way to an ever closer union; that also less effective. Russia’s President argues Austria’s Federal its big neighbor Russia. The case of European security. the security of Europe is central to US Vladimir Putin should, of course, have Minister for Europe, Ukraine demonstrates the need for a Thirdly, the EU must advance the strategy; that Russia no longer poses a been present; disinviting him deprived Integration and Foreign more sustainable and more compre- energy union, with the aim of greater threat to Western nations; that the rise Western leaders of an opportunity to Affairs, Sebastian Kurz. hensive security architecture in Europe diversification of oil and gas imports – of Asia, especially of China, would play reason with him or, alternatively, to – not against Russia, but with Russia. and a strategic reduction of dependence out in the economic field but would not read him the riot act. Second, these At the same time, defending against on Russian fuel. have any geopolitical and geostrategic meetings are far too short for the princi- Peace patrol 12 possible aggression from Russia hap- Fourthly, Ukraine needs much greater ramifications. pals to really master their brief on such The Organization for Security pens to be high on the agenda of many financial and economic help and Challenges, crises and conflicts spawn a vast array of issues. Third, the summit and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) cel- in the current crisis. backup. The aid that has been agreed conferences. The year 2015 has a surfeit agendas are enormously overloaded; ebrates 40 years since the Helsinki Final Act. What needs to happen to guarantee on with the International Monetary of them. Three big UN summits will they lack focus. Secretary General Lamberto Zannier Ukraine’s territorial integrity and to Fund (IMF) will not be enough. George make headlines in the next six months: Different formats are required to re- explains why it is more relevant than ever. consolidate the security architecture of Soros has lent his voice to the chorus on financing development (Addis Ababa install diplomacy in its rightful place. the whole continent? pointing this out, and has rightly in July), on the follow-up to the Millen- Since glamorous and time-consuming I propose a dual strategy, combin- stressed that more aid from the West nium Goals (New York in September), get-togethers like the Congress of Jihadi rivalry 13 ing military is of existential and on climate Vienna 1814/15 strength and importance for change (Paris in (nine months of The recent violent excesses of the Islamic security and Ukraine – far December). Theo Sommer is negotiations) or State (IS) have diverted attention in the West NATO reassur- Wolfgang Ischinger, more important All of these the executive editor the Berlin Con- away from al Qaeda. But it remains the more Germany’s former ambassador of The Security Times ance policies on than punishing subjects figured gress of 1878 dangerous opponent, warns Guido Steinberg. to the US and the UK, and The Atlantic Times the one hand, is the Chairman of the Russia with on the agenda of and former editor (four weeks) with offers of Munich Security Conference. sanctions. the G-7 confer- of the German weekly are unsuitable Die Zeit. Proxy war 14 comprehensive The “Draghi ence at Elmau. instruments cooperation in model” can Protected by in our age of The balance of power has shifted in the MSC ARCHIVE the Euro-Atlan- help here. Just 20,000 police acceleration, Middle East between Sunni and Shia states. tic region on the other – much as the as the European central Bank (ECB) and cordoned off from the world by setting up permanent ambassadorial The ongoing proxy war in the region original German Ostpolitik did in the president was able to calm the markets a 16-kilometer steel fence, the leaders conferences for the settlement of special between Iran and Saudia Arabia is the main 1970s. with a single sentence, so the EU could of the world’s seven leading indus- problems might be the best way to miti- symptom – and there is no cure in sight, Firstly, a clear military message make it clear that it will do everything trial nations, spent 27 hours talking gate and minimize the political conflicts writes Markus Bickel. remains essential. Russia’s annexation it can to support Ukraine on its path with each other. There was hardly a which are pitting the powers against of Crimea and ongoing Russian sup- to economic recovery. Such a public topic they ignored: Their “sherpas” each other in Ukraine, the Middle East port – both open and clandestine – for statement would create new confidence had formulated detailed draft recom- and the Asia-Pacific region. separatists in eastern Ukraine have lead in Ukraine. But that alone would not mendations and action plans: for cli- In the pre-atomic age, diplomacy had to very serious security concerns in suffice. If actions are to follow the mate change and ridding the oceans three tools: persuasion, compromise Europe, particularly among our east- words, it will cost money – a lot of of plastic waste, resistance to antibiot- and threat of force. The latter must ernmost NATO partners, the Baltic money – which given the debate over ics, women’s empowerment and work be ruled out in a world in containing States and Poland. Greece is not likely to be a popular standards in developing countries. In a stockpile of around 70,000 nuclear NATO has rightly responded with a suggestion anywhere in the EU. “outreach” sessions they focused on weapons. For the mitigation and program of political and military reas- But what is the alternative? Wouldn’t the Islamic arc of crisis, on trade and minimization of conflicts the powers surance. NATO’s external borders are the follow-up costs – political, military aid, on the lessons to be learned from are thrown back to persuasion and inviolable and must remain so. And just and financial – of a collapse of Ukraine, the Ebola epidemic. compromise. This means three things. as our NATO partners demonstrated the EU’s biggest eastern neighbor, be But Elmau was an amazingly depoliti- First of all: deal with the world as it their solidarity with West Germany for potentially far greater? cized summit, dealing, as it did, chiefly is instead of dreaming about what it more than four decades, we must now Of course, no such aid project can be with societal problems and issues of should be.