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Trust-Building in the Us-Chinese Nuclear Relationship: Impact Of TRUST-BUILDING IN THE U.S.-CHINESE NUCLEAR RELATIONSHIP: IMPACT OF OPERATIONAL-LEVEL ENGAGEMENT A Thesis Presented to The Academic Faculty by Tong Zhao In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree ofInternational Affairs, Science, & Technology in the Sam Nunn School of International Affairs Georgia Institute of Technology December 2014 Copyright © 2014 by Tong Zhao TRUST-BUILDING IN THE U.S.-CHINESE NUCLEAR RELATIONSHIP: IMPACT OF OPERATIONAL-LEVEL ENGAGEMENT Approved by: Dr. Adam Stulberg, Advisor Dr. Michael Salomone School of International Affairs School of International Affairs Georgia Institute of Technology Georgia Institute of Technology Dr. Lawrence Rubin Dr. Nolan Hertel School of International Affairs Nuclear Engineering Program, School Georgia Institute of Technology of Mechanical Engineering Georgia Institute of Technology Dr. Jarrod Hayes School of International Affairs Georgia Institute of Technology Date Approved: August 18, 2014 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS It gives me great pleasure in expressing my gratitude to all those peoplewho have supported me and had their contributions in making this thesispossible. First and foremost, I express my deepest gratitude to my advisor Dr. Adam Stulberg for his constant guidance, support, motivation and untiring help during the course of my PhD. I would not have accomplished this without his very kind encouragement and advice and I could not have imagined having a better advisor and mentor. I am profoundly thankful to Dr. Lawrence Rubin, Dr. Jarrod Hayes, Dr. Michael Salomone, and Dr. Nolan Hertel for their immense knowledge and strong guidance. The entire Sam Nunn School of International Affairs at Georgia Institute of Technology was asecond home for me, and all of the faculty, staff and fellow graduate students provided an extremely comfortable, dynamic, and exciting place to study and research. I am thankful to everyone. I am very grateful to the faculty, staff, and experts at the Managing the Atom Project and the International Security Program of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University for their advice and the opportunity to conduct research at the Kennedy School of Government. I deeply appreciate the opportunity to attend various Track II dialogues as part of the Young Leaders Program at the Pacific Forum CSIS. Last but not least, I would like to thank my parents and family for their tremendous and continuous support throughout the process. Their sacrifice, encouragement, and love will remain my inspiration throughout my life. iii This brief acknowledgement can only capture a small fraction of the people who helped and supported me. I send my deepest thanks to all. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS .......................................................................................................... III LIST OF TABLES ..................................................................................................................... VIII LIST OF FIGURES ....................................................................................................................... X LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ....................................................................................................... XI SUMMARY ................................................................................................................................. XV CHAPTER ONE: THE THEORY OF ENGAGEMENT AND TRUST-BUILDING ................... 1 Why Is Trust or Trust-building Relevant? ...................................................................................... 1 Definitions of Trust in Existing Literature ...................................................................................... 5 Trust as Encapsulated Interests ....................................................................................................... 5 Trust as Risk-taking ........................................................................................................................ 7 Trust as Bond .................................................................................................................................. 8 Trust and International Relations Theories ..................................................................................... 9 A Better Framework for Understanding Trust .............................................................................. 23 Bottom-Up Engagement and Trust-building ................................................................................ 31 Causal Mechanisms ...................................................................................................................... 38 Case Studies and Main Argument................................................................................................. 43 Plan of the Dissertation ................................................................................................................. 49 CHAPTER TWO: CONCENTRATED OPERATIONAL-LEVEL ENGAGEMENT: THE COMPREHENSIVE TEST BAN TREATY NEGOTIATIONS ......................................... 52 Previous Chinese Attitudes toward the Nuclear Test Ban ............................................................ 55 China’s Arms Control Community before CTBT ........................................................................ 57 U.S.–China Operational-Level Engagement ................................................................................. 59 Operational-Level Engagement and the Emergence of China’s Nuclear Arms Control Community ................................................................................................................................... 82 Operational-Level Engagement and the Growth of China’s Nuclear Arms Control Community ................................................................................................................................... 90 Inter-Agency Coordination and Communication Channels ........................................................ 102 Bottom-Up Channel of Communication and Influence .............................................................. 108 CTBT Issues Discussed during Operational-Level Engagement................................................ 118 Major Issues in Official CTBT Negotiations between the United States and China .................. 126 Strategic Trust and U.S.-China CTBT Engagement ................................................................... 135 Moralistic Trust and U.S.-China CTBT Engagement ................................................................. 138 CHAPTER THREE: LONG-TERM OPERATIONAL-LEVEL ENGAGEMENT: NUCLEAR STABILITY AND ARMS CONTROL .................................................................. 156 Official High-Level Dialogue ..................................................................................................... 157 Operational-Level Engagement on Nuclear Stability and Arms Control Issues ........................ 159 Community Expansion and Capacity Building........................................................................... 176 Bottom-Up Communication and Influence ................................................................................. 196 Strategic Trust ............................................................................................................................. 211 Moralistic Trust ........................................................................................................................... 214 CHAPTER FOUR: LONG-TERM OPERATIONAL-LEVEL ENGAGEMENT: NUCLEAR NONPROLIFERATION ......................................................................................... 233 Operational-Level Engagement .................................................................................................. 234 Community Expansion and Capacity Building........................................................................... 245 Bottom-Up Influence and Perception Change ............................................................................ 260 Strategic Trust ............................................................................................................................. 277 Moralistic Trust ........................................................................................................................... 282 CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSION............................................................................................. 302 Summary of Findings .................................................................................................................. 302 Theoretical Contribution ............................................................................................................. 309 Policy Implications ..................................................................................................................... 313 REFERENCES ........................................................................................................................... 319 LIST OF TABLES Table 1 Operationalization of Trust .................................................................................. 26 Table 2 Summary of Major Bilateral Visits between U.S. and Chinese Nuclear Scientific Communities before and during the CTBT Negotiations, 1993–1996 ............................. 58 Table 3 CTBT-Related Cooperative Research Projects under ACE ................................ 69 Table 4 Chinese and Foreign Participants in ISODARCO-Beijing Seminar on Arms Control, 1988–2012 .........................................................................................................
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