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Advanced Technology Acquisition Strategies of the People's Republic

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Advanced Technology Acquisition Strategies of the People's Republic Advanced Technology Acquisition Strategies of the People’s Republic of China Principal Author Dallas Boyd Science Applications International Corporation Contributing Authors Jeffrey G. Lewis and Joshua H. Pollack Science Applications International Corporation September 2010 This report is the product of a collaboration between the Defense Threat Reduction Agency’s Advanced Systems and Concepts Office and Science Applications International Corporation. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Defense Threat Reduction Agency, the Department of Defense, or the United States Government. This report is approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Defense Threat Reduction Agency Advanced Systems and Concepts Office Report Number ASCO 2010-021 Contract Number DTRA01-03-D-0017, T.I. 18-09-03 The mission of the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) is to safeguard America and its allies from weapons of mass destruction (chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear, and high explosives) by providing capabilities to reduce, eliminate, counter the threat, and mitigate its effects. The Advanced Systems and Concepts Office (ASCO) supports this mission by providing long-term rolling horizon perspectives to help DTRA leadership identify, plan, and persuasively communicate what is needed in the near-term to achieve the longer-term goals inherent in the Agency’s mission. ASCO also emphasizes the identification, integration, and further development of leading strategic thinking and analysis on the most intractable problems related to combating weapons of mass destruction. For further information on this project, or on ASCO’s broader research program, please contact: Defense Threat Reduction Agency Advanced Systems and Concepts Office 8725 John J. Kingman Road Ft. Belvoir, VA 22060-6201 [email protected] Acknowledgements The authors gratefully acknowledge Mark A. Stokes of the Project 2049 Institute for his many contributions to this report. In addition, we thank Paul Bernstein, George Ullrich, Lewis A. Dunn, Gregory Giles, and Jeffrey Cooper of Science Applications International Corporation for their thoughtful and constructive reviews of draft versions of the report. ADVANCED TECHNOLOGY ACQUISITION STRATEGIES OF THE PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA TABLE OF CONTENTS Acronyms....................................................................................................................................................................iii Executive Summary....................................................................................................................................................1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................................5 Study Purpose ........................................................................................................................................................8 Report Roadmap..................................................................................................................................................11 Section 1: Overt Acquisition of Foreign Weapons and Technology .............................................................15 1.1 Russia ..............................................................................................................................................................17 1.2 Ukraine............................................................................................................................................................21 1.3 Europe ............................................................................................................................................................21 1.4 Pakistan...........................................................................................................................................................22 1.5 United States ..................................................................................................................................................23 Section 2: Unsanctioned Alliances........................................................................................................................25 Section 3: Illicit Technology Acquisitions ...........................................................................................................29 3.1 Key Players.....................................................................................................................................................29 3.2 PRC Intelligence Gathering Methodologies .............................................................................................30 3.3 Illicit Technology Acquisition Targets.......................................................................................................41 Section 4: Reverse-Engineering.............................................................................................................................43 Section 5: Indigenous Research and Development ..........................................................................................49 Section 6: Acquisition and Development of Dual-Use Technology..............................................................61 Section 7: Case Studies in Technology Acquisition ...........................................................................................67 Case Study 1: Land Attack Cruise Missiles......................................................................................................67 Case Study 2: Hit-to-Kill Technology ..............................................................................................................73 Case Study 3: Adaptive Optics for High Energy Laser Applications..........................................................81 Case Study 4: China’s Acquisition of Strategic Weapons..............................................................................85 Appendix Section 1: Overt Acquisition of Foreign Weapons and Technology .......................................97 Appendix Section 2: Unsanctioned Alliances............................................................................................... 101 Appendix Section 3: Illicit Technology Acquisitions.................................................................................. 103 Appendix Section 4: Reverse-Engineering ................................................................................................... 107 Appendix Section 5: Indigenous Research and Development .................................................................. 109 Appendix Section 6: Acquisition and Development of Dual-Use Technology...................................... 111 Appendix Literature .......................................................................................................................................... 113 i DEFENSE THREAT REDUCTION AGENGY – ADVANCED SYSTEMS AND CONCEPTS OFFICE ii ADVANCED TECHNOLOGY ACQUISITION STRATEGIES OF THE PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA ACRONYMS ABM anti-ballistic missile AEW airborne early warning AMRAAM Advanced Medium-range Air-to-Air Missile ASAT anti-satellite ASCM anti-ship cruise missile ASW anti-submarine warfare AVIC-II Aviation Industries of China II AWACS airborne warning and control system BIS Bureau of Industry and Security C4ISR command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance & reconnaissance CAEP China Academy of Engineering Physics CFIUS Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States CIA Central Intelligence Agency CCP Chinese Communist Party CMC Central Military Commission COSTIND Commission of Science, Technology, and Industry for National Defense DIA Defense Intelligence Agency DoD U.S. Department of Defense DOE Department of Energy DSTC Defense Science and Technology Commission ESA electronically steered phased-array FBI Federal Bureau of Investigation FBIS Foreign Broadcast Information Service FEL free electron laser FOBS Fractional Orbital Bombardment System GAD General Armaments Department GAO Government Accountability Office GDP gross domestic product iii DEFENSE THREAT REDUCTION AGENGY – ADVANCED SYSTEMS AND CONCEPTS OFFICE GERD gross domestic expenditure on R&D GLD General Logistics Department GSD General Staff Department HARP High Altitude Research Program IAPCM Institute of Applied Physics and Computational Mathematics ICBM inter-continental ballistic missile IOE Institute of Optics and Electronics IRC Independent Review Committee ISI Inter-Services Intelligence KKV kinetic kill vehicle LACM land attack cruise missile MID/PLA Military Intelligence Department of the People’s Liberation Army MSS Ministry of State Security NAIC National Air Intelligence Center NCIX National Counterintelligence Executive NIBS National Institute for Biological Sciences NITKA Ukrainian Research Test and Flying Training Center NRO National Reconnaissance Office OTH over-the-horizon PACOM United States Pacific Command PFIAB President’s Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board PLA People’s Liberation Army PLAAF People’s Liberation Army Air Force PLAN People’s Liberation Army Navy PPP purchasing power parity PRC People’s Republic of China QED quiet electric drive R&D research and development S&T science and technology SAM surface-to-air missile SCO Shanghai Cooperation Organization iv ADVANCED TECHNOLOGY ACQUISITION STRATEGIES OF THE PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA SCOSTIND State
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