Risk Analysis in Construction Stage of Urban Rail Transit Mao Tian Postgraduate Department, China Academy of Railway Sciences, Daliushu road 2, Beijing, China [email protected] Keywords: Urban rail transit, Risk analysis, Analytic hierarchy process, Consistency test. Abstract: The paper analyses three kinds of packing methods of urban rail transit construction project; Summarizes the main work of preparation stage, financing stage, construction stage and operation stage in urban rail transit project ; Concludes the key risk points of each construction unit. At the same time, according to the analytic hierarchy process model, the paper calculates the weights and importance scores of risk factors in the construction stage. The main risk sources and risk level of construction phase are identified and analysed, lastly the consistency of the results is tested. 1 INTRODUCTION Table 1: The main types of packing methods and typical applications Urban rail transit project risk identification contains many factors and a variety of response measures, Types of packing Typical applications this article focuses on the urban rail transit Non-sunken capital Beijing Metro Line 4, Beijing Metro investment project Line 14, Beijing Metro Line 16, construction phase of risk identification and model Hangzhou Metro Line 1 and Hangzhou response measures. Prerequisites for risk Metro Line 5 identification include the packing method of The overall Urumqi Line 2, Beijing New Airport construction project, main stages and key tasks of investment and Line, Hohhot Line 1 and Line 2, financing project Chengdu New Airport Line urban rail transit, and the division of organization model among the participating units. Overall construction Shenzhen Metro Line 4, Shenzhen + land development Metro Line 6, Foshan Metro Line 2 model 2 RISK PREREQUISITES OF The first is the type of non-sunken capital investment project model, it’s sunk capital part of URBAN RAIL TRANSIT the investment is capital investment by the CONSTRUCTION PHASE government, non-sunken part is that the social capital investment. Belonging to sunk capital part in Urban rail transit project is civil engineering 2.1 Packing Method of Urban Rail construction, and belonging to non-sunken part is Transit Construction Project the mechanical and electrical equipment project (Qingwu, Zhao, 2014). Civil engineering The way of packing of the project has great construction is partly funded by the government and influence on the management organization and construction. By means of bidding, the construction progress. It is one of the prerequisites electromechanical equipment is invested and for risk identification in the construction phase of constructed by a project company jointly set up by the urban rail transit project. social capital and the government. After the From the perspective of urban rail transit completion of the construction, the project company construction, there are three types of packing is responsible for the operation of the project routes methods commonly used in the project. and is rewarded through the revenue during the 210 Tian, M. Risk Analysis in Construction Stage of Urban Rail Transit. In 3rd International Conference on Electromechanical Control Technology and Transportation (ICECTT 2018), pages 210-215 ISBN: 978-989-758-312-4 Copyright © 2018 by SCITEPRESS – Science and Technology Publications, Lda. All rights reserved Risk Analysis in Construction Stage of Urban Rail Transit operation period (mainly the ticket revenue and civil engineering, mechanical and electrical government subsidies). equipment) . After the completion of the project, the The second type is the overall investment and project company is responsible for the operation of financing mode of construction projects, that is, the the line and is rewarded with revenue during the government selects one social capital company and operation period (major ticketing revenue and the designated government company to set up the government subsidies). project company by means of bidding. The project company is responsible for the investment and construction of the project as a whole (including Table 2: The main tasks of urban rail transit construction phase and division of responsibilities The division of responsibilities Main tasks Owners of units Design unit Supervision unit Construction unit Supplier unit Line design Make a demand Implement - - - Model selection of vehicles Organization Design Consultation - Coordination Land demolition Organization Coordination Check Implement - The line and station construction Check Design alteration Supervision Organization - Equipment procurement Organization Coordination Check - Production Design contact Organization In charge Check Coordination Coordination Model machine production Check In charge Supervision - Organization Leave-factory check and acceptance Check In charge Supervision Coordination Organization Equipment installation Check Guidance Supervision Implement Coordination Equipment debugging Organization Guidance Check Implement Coordination Final acceptance Organization Coordination Implement Coordination Coordination The third type is to build the overall construction + land development model. That is, the government selects the social capital through competitive bidding and sets up the project company with the government appointed company. The project company is not only responsible for the investment and construction of the project as a whole , and also get the development rights along the land line. After the completion of the project, the project company is rewarded mainly through the ticketing revenue, advertising revenue and land development income during the operation period. Typical applications about three types of packing methods are shown in table 1. Figure 1: The V diagram of the main works about four 2.2 Urban rail transit construction stages in the urban rail transit projects phase division and key work 2.3 The Main Work of Urban Rail No matter what type of urban rail transit Transit Construction and Division construction mode, the construction generally can be divided into four stages: the preparation stage, of Responsibilities financing stage, the construction phase and the operation phase (General Administration of Quality Many articles have been written on the risk analysis Supervision, 2013). To grasp the division of these during the preparation stage and the financing stage phases and the key tasks they include is of great of urban rail transit projects, which will not be significance to the identification of urban rail transit repeated here. This article focuses on the analysis of construction phase risks. The main work of each the major risks in the construction phase. One of the phase is shown in figure 1. important prerequisites for risk identification is to analyse the main tasks in the construction phase 211 ICECTT 2018 - 3rd International Conference on Electromechanical Control Technology and Transportation (Yanjun, Xiao, 2014) and the division of 4 THE RISK LEVEL responsibilities between the participating units, as CALCULATION OF shown in table 2. CONSTRUCTION RISK FACTORS 3 IDENTIFICATION OF MAIN The risk level of risk factors can be calculated using RISKS IN URBAN RAIL analytic hierarchy process (AHP) model. Firstly, TRANSIT CONSTRUCTION experts were invited to score the weight and the STAGE importance of the risk factors separately. Then, the weight and the importance of the risk factors were The risks of urban rail transit construction stage normalized according to the AHP model, and the mainly include construction conventional risk, consistency of the results was verified. Finally, technology risk, management risk, interface risk, according to the results of the example to determine political risk, financial risk and legal risk (Hetai, the level of risk factors. Sheng, 2015). See table 3 for details. 4.1 Calculation of risk factor weight Table 3: Risk identification in construction stage of urban value ωi rail transit Risk Risk factor 4.1.1 Construct a comparison matrix classification Construction The land demolition and Suppose n risk factors in the construction phase are conventional compensation(m1), The increase in C , C ,…, C and weight of every factor importance risk finance costs(m2), Protection of the 1 2 n archaeological relics, Construction is ω1,ω2…, ωn. For any two factors Ci and Cj, let aij force majeure denote the ratio of Ci to Cj (Zhonggeng, Han, 2009), Technology Improper design(m3), Improper get: risk construction technology(m4), Improper protective measures, i a(,1,2,,)ij ij n (1) Improper product protection, Harsh construction environment j Management The construction time delay(m5), Construct a comparison matrix A=(aij )nn ， risk The risk of quality control, Safety get: risk control, Cost overruns Interface Imported equipment control(m6), aa11 12 a 1n risk Transfer of existing complex aa21 22 a 2n facilities(m7), No cooperation A= (2) between departments, System aij interface mismatch Political risk The negative behaviour of aann12 a nn government(m10), The local partner unreliability, The government And: nonpayment 11 1 Financial Inflation(m11); interest rate(m12), risk Rate of foreign exchange 12 n legal risk Default of contractor(m8), Standard 22 2 Specification update(m9), The bankruptcy of item company, The A= 12 2 (3) contract dispute, arbitration, ambiguity nn n 12n Obviously the matrix is a positive reciprocal matrix, get: 212 Risk Analysis in Construction Stage of Urban