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2013.03.02 Maritime Security Japan and Taiwan in a New Japan and Taiwan in a New Era Possible Effects and Influence toward its Relationship Published 2013 by Ocean Policy Research Foundation, Tokyo, Japan Publisher: Yoshio KON Ocean Policy Research Foundation http://www.sof.or.jp/en/ Toranomon 35 Mori Bldg., 3-4-10 Toranomon, Minato-ku Tokyo 105-0001 Japan Tel: +81-3-5404-6828 Fax: +81-3-5404-6800 ⒸOcean Policy Research Foundation 2013 ⒸProspect Foundation 2013 All rights are reserved. First Printing ISBN978-4-88404-297-4 Japan and Taiwan in a New Era: Possible Effects and Influences toward its Relationship Preface Shinichi Kitaoka ................................................................................ 3 Louis Wen-Hua Tzen ......................................................................... 5 Introduction Masahiro Akiyama ............................................................................ 9 Bih-Jaw Lin ..................................................................................... 12 1. Viewpoint from an Economic Perspective A Taiwanese view: Mignonne Man-jung Chan ............................... 17 A Japanese view: Motoshige Itoh ................................................... 38 2. Viewpoint from a Domestic Politics Perspective A Japanese view: Shinichi Kitaoka ................................................. 51 A Taiwanese view: Ming Lee .......................................................... 60 3. Viewpoint from an International Surroundings’ Perspective (1) A Focus on China A Japanese view: Masayuki Masuda .............................................. 81 A Taiwanese view: Chien-Min Chao .............................................. 91 (2) A Focus on the United States A Taiwanese view: Yeh-Chung Lu ................................................ 102 A Japanese view: Yasuhiro Matsuda ............................................. 118 (3) A Focus on Security Issues A Japanese view: Noboru Yamaguchi ........................................... 137 A Taiwanese view: Bih-Jaw Lin.................................................... 149 Conclusion Tuan-Yao Cheng ............................................................................ 163 Yasuhiro Matsuda .......................................................................... 167 Preface The most surprising phenomenon not only in the Asia-Pacific region but also in the world today is without doubt the rapid rise of China. The economic size of China is 4 times what it was just 10 years ago. Its influence in the international economy, politics, military, and culture has expanded accordingly. However, the most remarkable aspect about the rise of China is not its size or the rapidity of its growth, but the manner in which China asserts itself. In 2008, China responded vehemently to criticism made against it by the international community over its suppression of the Tibetan uprisings. It was completely different from its response to criticism made against it by the western powers over the Tiananmen incident in 1989. In 2010, China defended the DPRK when an ROK naval vessel was torpedoed and sunk allegedly by a DPRK submarine in March and when the DPRK bombed the Yeonpyeong Island and killed several people of the ROK, including civilians, in November. China also blocked the United Nations Security Council from adopting a resolution to criticize the DPRK when it carried out a missile test in 2011. There have also been aggressive efforts to expand both into the Eastern Chinese Sea and Southern Chinese Sea. In the Eastern Chinese Sea, China sent its fishing fleet to the Senkaku (Diaoyu) islands, which belong to Japan, and strongly criticized Japan when it apprehended the captain of a boat in 2010. In the second Senkaku case, in 2012, the Chinese government allowed people to attack Japanese cars, stores, and factories when the Noda government transferred the property right of one of the Senkaku islands from a Japanese citizen to the government. No countries are more affected by these activities than Japan and Taiwan. The two countries have responded, quite naturally, both by engaging and hedging. The Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA), signed between China and 3 － 3 － Taiwan in June 2010, after one year’s negotiation, was a remarkable decision to cope with the rise of China. Taiwan decided to rely more on China economically, but, at the same time, to expand its cooperation with other countries in order to secure a wider diplomatic space. In Japan, under the newly created DPJ government, a new Defense Policy Outline was adopted in December 2010. It was an effort to focus on the China threat more directly. It should be noted that it was adopted by the DPJ, which had been thought to be less committed to the US-Japan security treaty and defense policy in general. In other words, the China threat is now shared by the major parties and most of the people in Japan. This February, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced that Japan would participate in the negotiation of the Transpacific Partnership (TPP). It is not only an economic framework but also a political one because it tries to strengthen the ties among those countries that are concerned about the rapid rise of China. The Senkaku issue is a very difficult and complicated one. Taiwan claims that it belongs to Taiwan and China supports the position of Taiwan. In that sense, Taiwan and China are on the same side. However, what China is doing is challenging the status quo by force. If China succeeds in changing the status quo by force and the international community accepts it, what will be the future of Taiwan? This dialogue between Japan and Taiwan was conducted in such a period. At the conclusion of this period, Xi Jinping was elected as the new leader of China. It is too early to predict China’s foreign policy under Xi. However, it is essential to examine the past several years to understand the complicated relationship in East Asia. I hope this report might be of some use in that regard. Shinichi Kitaoka President, International University of Japan 4 － 4 － Preface In recent years, the Asia Pacific region has undergone significant changes. First and foremost, we have witnessed the rapid rise of China as a great power. This new factor is of high strategic importance to Asia-Pacific nations as it may shape the future development of international relations in the region. Secondly, Obama’s policy of “rebalancing” signifies that the United States is determined to refocus her attention on the Asia Pacific region. It is worthwhile devoting further analysis to the strategic implications of this policy. Thirdly, in spite of enjoying relative peace and stability, the region is still plagued by mounting tensions in certain areas, especially in the South China and East China Seas. In addition, the Korean Peninsula is far from being peaceful. North Korea’s determined attempt to develop nuclear arms and ballistic missiles has become a strategic nightmare that haunts northeast Asia. Fourthly, in recent years tension across the Taiwan Strait has relaxed considerably. We believe that such a positive development is conducive to regional peace and stability. Fifthly, the recent leadership changes in the two Koreas, Russia, Japan and China have triggered speculation on the implications for the future development of the region. Last but not least, non-traditional security issues such as terrorism, extreme climate change, energy shortage, and water scarcity have increasingly become matters of great concern for most countries in the region. It is against this regional strategic panorama that the Prospect Foundation is keen to conduct track-two dialogue with leading think-tanks of the Asia Pacific region with a view to better analyzing the ever changing situation. Since 2009, the Prospect Foundation and Japan’s Ocean 5 － 5 － Policy Research Foundation have started to co-organize “The Taiwan-Japan Strategic Dialogue for the New Era” on a half-yearly basis. So far eight rounds of Dialogue have been held. Eminent scholars and experts from both countries were invited to discuss a myriad of issues, including regional security, regional economic integration, cross-strait relations, domestic affairs in Japan and Taiwan as well as bilateral relations between the two countries. We are grateful to the scholars for actively participating in the Dialogue and generously sharing with us their insights on these wide-ranging issues. We would also like to thank the participants for taking extra time to put their ideas into words and contribute to this final report. We are confident that the eight rounds of Dialogue have not only deepened our knowledge of the new dynamics of development in the Asia Pacific region, but have also helped enhance mutual understanding between the Republic of China and Japan. Finally, we would like to express our heartfelt appreciation to Dr. Yohei Sasakawa, Chairman of The Nippon Foundation, Mr. Masahiro Akiyama, President of the Tokyo Foundation, and Dr. Shinichi Kitaoka, President of the International University of Japan for their unswerving support throughout the years. Without their consistent efforts, “The Taiwan-Japan Strategic Dialogue for the New Era” would not have been so successful. Louis Tzen Chairman, Prospect Foundation 6 － 6 － Introduction － 7 － － 8 － Masahiro AKIYAMA President, Tokyo Foundation Senior Advisor, Ocean Policy Research Foundation The Japan-Taiwan Strategic Dialogue for the New Era was launched four years ago. In the absence of official relations, diplomatic dialogue was limited. On the other hand, Japan-Taiwan relations
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