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Information Heterogeneity and Economic Voting: a Cross-National Analysis Chia-Yin Wei University of South Carolina

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Information Heterogeneity and Economic Voting: a Cross-National Analysis Chia-Yin Wei University of South Carolina University of South Carolina Scholar Commons Theses and Dissertations 2016 Information Heterogeneity and Economic Voting: A Cross-National Analysis Chia-yin Wei University of South Carolina Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarcommons.sc.edu/etd Part of the Political Science Commons Recommended Citation Wei, C.(2016). Information Heterogeneity and Economic Voting: A Cross-National Analysis. (Doctoral dissertation). Retrieved from https://scholarcommons.sc.edu/etd/3847 This Open Access Dissertation is brought to you by Scholar Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in Theses and Dissertations by an authorized administrator of Scholar Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Information Heterogeneity and Economic Voting: A Cross-National Analysis by Chia-yin Wei Bachelor of Arts Shih-Chien University, 1997 Master of Arts National Taiwan University, 2001 Master of Arts University of Texas at Austin, 2007 Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements For the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Political Science College of Arts and Sciences University of South Carolina 2016 Accepted by: Fuh-sheng Hsieh, Major Professor David Darmofal, Committee Member Charles J. Finocchiaro, Committee Member Tse-min Lin, Committee Member Paul Allen Miller, Vice Provost and Interim Dean of Graduate Studies © Copyright by Chia Yin Wei, 2016 All Rights Reserved. ii DEDICATION Dedicated to my grandparents, parents, my brother, sister, sister-in-law, and nephews for love, wisdom, and strength. iii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I would like to express my deepest gratitude to John Fuh-sheng Hsieh, my supervisor, for his patient guidance, continuous encouragement, and constructive critiques since I entered the Ph.D. program in University of South Carolina. I am also grateful for encouragement and comments from my committee members: Lee Walker, David Darmofal, Charles J. Finocchiaro, and Tse-min Lin. I also thank to research fellows who gave me advice for my work and encouraged me in Institute of Political Science in Academia Sinica: Yu-shan Wu, Yun-han Chu, Jih- wen Lin, Huo-yan Shyu, Chung-li Wu, Fang-yi Chiou, Szu-chien Hsu, Chin-en Wu, Nathan Batto, Wen-hsuan Tsai, Wen-chin Wu, and Nien-chung Chang Liao. I also appreciate my colleagues and friends for help, encouragement, and cordial friendship: Fred Cady, Heather Hawn, Roger Chi-feng Liu, Charles Wu, Mandy Liao, Alex Chien- wu Hsueh, Soon Oh, Mariam Dekanozishvili, Juri Kim, Jerry Yi-tzu Lin, Yu-hsien Sung, Yu-hsiu Lin, Alison Zeng, Yvonne Chen, Wendy Li, Rex Chen, Yi-Hsuan Yang, Irene Chia-hua Lin, Henry Tseng, Chuan-fa Tang, Feng-yu Lee, Fu-yi Yang, and Hsiao-chi Hsu. Finally I very much appreciate supportive help from my beloved family: my grandmother, my parents, my uncles and aunts, my brother, my sister-in-law, my sister, my cousins, my nephews and nieces. I could not finish my dissertation without their incredibly support and love. iv ABSTRACT My dissertation explores the effect of information sources (especially the media) on retrospective and prospective national economic evaluations and their subsequent voter choice in comparative perspective. I examine whether the level of democracy and level of economic development are associated with the effect of information sources on economic voting across nations. The results indicate that consolidated democracies and countries with middle income (GDP per capita: $1,000~$9,999) are most strongly associated with both retrospective and prospective national economic evaluations. However, the level of democracy and economic development are not associated with voter choice. The comparative case study of Mexico and Taiwan substantiates the claim that countries with consolidated democracy can have a stronger effect on national economic evaluations than those with a lower level of democracy. Given that Taiwan has a higher level of democracy (the polity score of Mexico and Taiwan are 8 and 10 in 2012 respectively), the media effect on economic voting is more influential in Taiwan than in Mexico. v TABLE OF CONTENTS DEDICATION ................................................................................................................... iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ................................................................................................. iv ABSTRACT ............................................................................................................................v LIST OF TABLES .................................................................................................................. ix LIST OF FIGURES ................................................................................................................. xi CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................1 1.1 RELEVANT RESEARCH...................................................................................4 1.2 THEORY OF INFORMATION SOURCES ON ECONOMIC VOTING ........10 1.3 METHODOLOGY ............................................................................................13 1.4 CHAPTER OUTLINE .......................................................................................30 CHAPTER 2 THE EFFECT OF INFORMATION SOURCES ON RETROSPECTIVE NATIONAL ECONOMIC EVALUATION ............................................................35 2.1 SINGLE-LEVEL ORDERED LOGIT MODELS IN EACH COUNTRY …….36 2.2 MULTILEVEL ORDERED LOGIT MODELS .................................................37 2.3 RANDOM COEFFICIENTS ON A SUBSET OF POLITY SCORE DUMMIES .............................................................................................................41 2.4 RANDOM COEFFICIENTS ON A SUBSET OF GDP PER CAPITA DUMMIES .............................................................................................................43 2.5 CONCLUSION ..................................................................................................46 CHAPTER 3 THE EFFECT OF INFORMATION SOURCES ON PROSPECTIVE NATIONAL ECONOMIC EVALUATION ............................................................58 3.1 SINGLE-LEVEL ORDERED LOGIT MODELS IN EACH COUNTRY .........59 vi 3.2 MULTILEVEL ORDERED LOGIT MODELS ............................................... 60 3.3 RANDOM COEFFICIENTS ON A SUBSET OF POLITY SCORE DUMMIES .......................................................................................................... 64 3.4 RANDOM COEFFICIENT ON A SUBSET OF GDP PER CAPTIA DUMMIES ........................................................................................................... 66 3.5 CONCLUSION ............................................................................................... 69 CHAPTER 4 THE EFFECT OF INFORMATION SOURCES ON VOTER CHOICE .. 80 4.1 THE SINGLE-LEVEL LOGIT MODELS IN EACH COUNTRY ................. 81 4.2 MULTILEVEL LOGIT MODELS .................................................................. 83 4.3 RANDOM COEFFICIENTS ON A SUBSET OF POLITY SCORE DUMMIES ............................................................................................................ 86 4.4 RANDOM COEFFICIENT ON A SUBSET OF GDP PER CAPTIA DUMMIES ............................................................................................................ 89 4.5 CONCLUSION ................................................................................................ 93 CHAPTER 5 A COMPARATIVE CASE STUDY OF MEXICO AND TAIWAN ...... 102 5.1 THE IMPORTANCE OF COMPARATIVE CASE STUDIES .................... 103 5.2 MEXICO CASE ............................................................................................. 107 5.3 TAIWAN CASE ............................................................................................ 119 5.4 CONCLUSION OF COMPARATIVE CASE STUDY ................................ 130 CHAPTER 6 CONCLUSION ........................................................................................ 149 6.1 MAJOR FINDINGS OF THIS RESEARCH ................................................ 149 6.2 THE LIMITATIONS OF THIS RESEARCH ............................................... 153 6.3 RESEARCH PLAN FOR THE EXTENSION OF THIS RESEARCH ........ 156 REFERENCES ............................................................................................................... 159 APPENDIX A: QUESTIONS OF GLOBAL BAROMETER ........................................ 173 vii APPENDIX B: QUESTIONS OF LATINO BAROMETRO ......................................... 178 APPENDIX C: QUESTIONS OF 1997 MEXICO CITY PANEL STUDY .................. 181 APPENDIX D: QUESTIONS OF 2000 MEXICO PANEL STUDY ............................ 184 APPENDIX E: QUESTIONS OF 2006 MEXICO CITY PANEL STUDY ................... 187 APPENDIX F: QUESTIONS OF 2012 MEXICO CITY PANEL STUDY ................... 190 APPENDIX G: 1996 ELECTION SURVEY IN TAIWAN ........................................... 193 APPENDIX H: 2000 ELECTION SURVEY IN TAIWAN ........................................... 197 APPENDIX I: 2004 ELECTION SURVEY IN TAIWAN ............................................ 200 APPENDIX J: 2008 ELECTION SURVEY IN TAIWAN ............................................ 203 APPENDIX K: 2012 ELECTION SURVEY IN TAIWAN ........................................... 206 APPENDIX L: DESIGNATION OF INTERVIEWEES IN TAIWAN ......................... 210 APPENDIX M: QUESTIONS OF IN-DEPTH INTERVIEWS ..................................... 211 viii LIST OF TABLES Table 1.1 Countries in Global Barometer with Level of Democracy
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