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Local Housing Market Assessment

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Local Housing Market Assessment Flintshire County Council 2014/15 Local Housing Market Assessment Flintshire County Council Final Report August 2015 Main Contact: Michael Bullock Email: [email protected] Telephone: 0191 386 0026 Website: www.arc4.co.uk © 2015 arc4 Limited (Company No. 06205180) Flintshire LHMA 2014 - Draft Report Page | 2 Table of Contents 1. Introduction ..................................................................................................... 7 Research methodology ..................................................................................... 8 2. Local context ................................................................................................ 10 Introduction ..................................................................................................... 10 Corporate policy context ................................................................................. 12 Strategic housing context ............................................................................... 13 Planning policy ............................................................................................... 14 Concluding comments .................................................................................... 15 3. Defining the Housing Market Area .............................................................. 16 Introduction ..................................................................................................... 16 House prices and rates of change in house prices ......................................... 18 Relative affordability ....................................................................................... 23 Household migration and search behaviour ................................................... 24 Travel to work trends ...................................................................................... 30 Concluding comments .................................................................................... 30 4. Understanding the Current Housing Position ............................................ 31 Introduction ..................................................................................................... 31 Estimates of current dwellings in terms of size, type, condition, tenure .......... 31 Concluding Comments ................................................................................... 46 5. Understanding the future Housing Market ................................................ 48 Introduction ..................................................................................................... 48 Key market drivers .......................................................................................... 48 Market signals – Housing demand pressure and housing supply ................... 52 Past trends in housing delivery ....................................................................... 53 Development in neighbouring areas ............................................................... 53 Suggested future development profile of market dwellings ............................ 54 Stakeholder Observations .............................................................................. 58 Concluding Comments ................................................................................... 59 6. Housing Need ............................................................................................... 61 Introduction ..................................................................................................... 61 Stage 1: C: Current need ............................................................................ 62 Stage 2: A: Available stock to offset need .................................................... 65 Stage 3: N: Newly arising need .................................................................... 66 Stage 4: S: Supply of affordable units ......................................................... 67 Estimates of household groups who have particular housing requirements ... 72 Summary ........................................................................................................ 77 7. Key Findings and Conclusion: bringing the evidence together ............... 79 March 2015 Flintshire LHMA 2014 - Draft Report Page | 3 Introduction ..................................................................................................... 79 Defining the housing market area ................................................................... 79 Understanding the current housing position ................................................... 80 Understanding the Future Housing Market ..................................................... 80 Housing Need ................................................................................................. 81 Monitoring and updating housing assessments .............................................. 82 Concluding comments and recommendations ................................................ 83 Introduction to Technical Appendices .................................................................. 84 Technical Appendix A: Research Methodology ................................................... 85 Overall approach ............................................................................................ 85 Baseline dwelling stock information and survey sample errors ...................... 85 Weighting and grossing .................................................................................. 85 List of stakeholders interviewed as part of the SHMA process ....................... 86 Technical Appendix B: Housing need calculations ............................................. 87 Summary of contents ...................................................................................... 87 Introduction ..................................................................................................... 88 Stage 1: C: Current need ............................................................................ 89 Stage 2: A: Available stock to offset need ................................................... 91 Stage 3: N: Newly arising need .................................................................. 92 Stage 4: S: Supply of affordable units ......................................................... 93 Net shortfall or surplus .................................................................................... 94 Technical Appendix C: A framework for updating the housing needs model and assessment of affordable housing requirements ......................................... 97 Introduction ..................................................................................................... 97 Updating of baseline housing needs and affordable housing requirements ... 97 Concluding comments .................................................................................... 99 List of tables Table 3.1 House prices in Flintshire CB by sub-area ........................................... 21 Table 3.2 Relative affordability of lower quartile (LQ) prices by District (residence based) ................................................................................ 23 Table 3.3 Relative affordability of median prices by District (residence based) ... 24 Table 3.4 Origin of moving households ............................................................... 25 Table 3.5 Summary of household moves in preceding 5 years ........................... 26 Table 3.6 Residential mobility – movement between different tenures ................ 28 Table 3.7 Residential mobility – profile of properties moved into by type and size ...................................................................................................... 28 March 2015 Flintshire LHMA 2014 - Draft Report Page | 4 Table 3.8 First choice destination of households planning to move in next five years .................................................................................................... 29 Table 4.1 Occupied Stock by sub-area ................................................................ 31 Table 4.2 Property type and size of occupied dwellings across Flintshire ........... 32 Table 4.3 Dissatisfaction with state of repair by sub-area, property tenure, age and type ........................................................................................ 36 Table 4.4 Lower Quartile and median price and income required to be affordable ............................................................................................. 39 Table 4.5 Profile of private rented sector in Flintshire County ............................. 43 Table 5.1 Primary market drivers ......................................................................... 48 Table 5.2 Household projections - Flintshire ........................................................ 50 Table 5.3 Housing market signals ........................................................................ 52 Table 5.4 Dwelling completions Flintshire County 2009/10 to 2013/14............... 53 Table 5.5 Housing completions Flintshire and neighbouring LAs 2009/10 to 2013/14 ................................................................................................ 54 Table 5.6 Housing completions against local plan targets ................................... 54 Table 5.7 Open market dwelling stock and preferences ...................................... 55 Table 5.8 Open market dwelling stock and preferences ...................................... 55 Table 5.9 Comparison between current dwelling stock and market aspirations/expectations
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