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LDP-EBD-HP3 Local Housing Market Assessment Update

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LDP-EBD-HP3 Local Housing Market Assessment Update LDP-EBD-HP3 Flintshire County Council Local Housing Market Assessment Update 2018 Flintshire County Council Final report January 2019 Main Contact: Michael Bullock Email: [email protected] Telephone: 0800 612 9133 Website: www.arc4.co.uk © 2019 arc4 Limited (Company No. 06205180) Flintshire LHMA Update 2018– Final Report Page | 2 Table of Contents 1. Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 7 Research methodology .................................................................................................... 8 2. Local context .................................................................................................................... 9 Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 9 Corporate policy context ................................................................................................ 10 Strategic housing context ............................................................................................... 11 Planning policy ............................................................................................................... 12 Concluding comments .................................................................................................... 12 3. Defining the Housing Market Area ................................................................................ 13 Introduction ................................................................................................................... 13 House prices and rates of change in house prices ......................................................... 15 Relative affordability ...................................................................................................... 21 Migration and self-containment .................................................................................... 22 Commuting patterns ...................................................................................................... 27 Concluding comments .................................................................................................... 29 4. Understanding the current housing position ................................................................. 30 Introduction ................................................................................................................... 30 Estimates of current dwellings in terms of size, type, condition, tenure ...................... 30 Concluding comments .................................................................................................... 47 5. Understanding the future housing market .................................................................... 49 Introduction ................................................................................................................... 49 Key market drivers ......................................................................................................... 49 Market signals ................................................................................................................ 53 Past trends in housing delivery ...................................................................................... 55 Development in neighbouring areas .............................................................................. 56 Suggested future development profile of market dwellings ......................................... 56 Concluding comments .................................................................................................... 60 6. Housing Need ................................................................................................................. 61 Introduction ................................................................................................................... 61 Stage 1: Current need .................................................................................................. 62 Stage 2: A: Available stock to offset need .................................................................. 65 Stage 3: N: Newly arising need .................................................................................... 66 Stage 4: Supply of affordable units ............................................................................... 67 Estimates of household groups who have particular housing requirements ................ 72 Summary ........................................................................................................................ 77 7. Key Findings and Conclusion: bringing the evidence together ...................................... 79 January 2019 Flintshire LHMA Update 2018– Final Report Page | 3 Introduction ................................................................................................................... 79 Defining the housing market area ................................................................................. 79 Understanding the current housing position ................................................................. 79 Understanding the Future Housing Market ................................................................... 80 Housing Need ................................................................................................................. 81 Monitoring and updating housing assessments ............................................................ 81 Concluding comments and recommendations .............................................................. 82 Introduction to Technical Appendices ....................................................................................... 83 Technical Appendix A: Research Methodology ......................................................................... 84 Overall approach ............................................................................................................ 84 Baseline dwelling stock information and survey sample errors .................................... 84 Technical Appendix B: Housing need calculations ..................................................................... 86 Summary of contents ..................................................................................................... 86 Introduction ................................................................................................................... 87 Stage 1: C: Current need ............................................................................................. 88 Stage 2: A: Available stock to offset need .................................................................. 90 Stage 3: N: Newly arising need .................................................................................. 91 Stage 4: S: Supply of affordable units ......................................................................... 92 Net shortfall or surplus .................................................................................................. 93 Sub-area variations ........................................................................................................ 93 Technical Appendix C: Agent review .......................................................................................... 97 Technical Appendix D: A framework for updating the housing needs model and assessment of affordable housing requirements ............................................................................................ 100 Introduction ................................................................................................................. 100 Updating of baseline housing needs and affordable housing requirements .............. 100 Concluding comments .................................................................................................. 102 Technical Appendix E: Stakeholder comments ........................................................................ 103 Priorities ....................................................................................................................... 103 The current and future housing market in Flintshire and housing market drivers ..... 104 List of Tables Table 3.1 2017 house prices in Flintshire County by sub-area .......................................... 18 Table 3.2 Relative affordability of lower quartile (LQ) prices by Welsh local authority (residence based) 2017 .............................................................................................................. 21 Table 3.3 Relative affordability of median prices by Welsh local authority (residence based) 2017 22 Table 3.4 Origin of moving households ............................................................................. 23 January 2019 Flintshire LHMA Update 2018– Final Report Page | 4 Table 3.5 Summary of household moves in preceding 5 years ......................................... 24 Table 3.6 Residential mobility – movement between different tenures .......................... 26 Table 3.7 Residential mobility – profile of properties moved into by type and size ......... 26 Table 3.8 First choice destination of households planning to move in next five years .... 27 Table 3.9 Flintshire County 2011 Census commuting flows: workers (aged 16-74) ......... 28 Table 4.1 Dwelling stock by sub-area ................................................................................ 30 Table 4.2 Property type and size of occupied dwellings across Flintshire ........................ 31 Table 4.3 Dissatisfaction
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