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Nuclear Wars and Weapons Reduction for Global Security 77 Nuclear Weapons, Nuclear War and Global Security: Major Trends and Consequences

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Nuclear Wars and Weapons Reduction for Global Security 77 Nuclear Weapons, Nuclear War and Global Security: Major Trends and Consequences Online Study Materials on NUCLEAR WARS AND WEAPONS REDUCTION FOR GLOBAL SECURITY 77 NUCLEAR WEAPONS, NUCLEAR WAR AND GLOBAL SECURITY: MAJOR TRENDS AND CONSEQUENCES Introduction On 7 December 1988, the General Assembly adopted resolution 43/75 N, the operative paragraphs of which read as follows: The General Assembly, “1. Requests the Secretary-General to carry out, with the assistance of qualified governmental experts and taking into account recent relevant studies, an update of the Comprehensive Study on Nuclear Weapons that provides factual and up-to-date information on and pays regard to the political, legal and security aspects of: (a) Nuclear arsenals and pertinent technological developments; (b) Doctrines concerning nuclear weapons; (c) Efforts to reduce nuclear weapons; (d) Physical, environmental, medical and other effects of use of nuclear weapons and of nuclear testing; (e) Efforts to achieve a comprehensive nuclear-test ban; (f) Efforts to prevent the use of nuclear weapons and their horizontal and vertical proliferation; (g) The question of verification of compliance with nuclear-arms limitation agreements.” “2. Recommends that the study, while aiming at being as comprehensive as possible, should be based on open material and such further information as member states may wish to make available for the purpose of the study;” 1966 “3. Invites all Governments to co-operate with the Secretary-General so that the objectives of the study may be achieved;” “4. Requests the Secretary-General to submit the final report to the General Assembly well in advance of its forty-fifth session.” The update of the 1980 study has been prepared against the background of important changes that have occurred in international relations in the last 10 years since its publication. They are characterised by the global quantitative and continued qualitative developments of nuclear weapons on the one hand and major breakthroughs in arms limitation and disarmament negotiations on the other. On the technical level, research, development, production and deployment of new weapons have continued steadily, with the attendant introduction of more accurate nuclear ballistic missile systems and the deployment of highly accurate nuclear-armed cruise missiles. Accuracy, low yield and miniaturisation led to MIRVed (MIRV—multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicle) intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and the development of new types of cruise missiles whether sea-, air- or land-launched-at relatively limited costs. The possibility of ballistic missile defence (BMD) technologies based on various concepts is also being explored. In reviewing these developments, the study refers to figures, estimates and other data based on various open academic and other non-governmental sources. Some data are, however, officially published by nuclear weapon States, though such information is generally classified. The Governments of the respective nuclear weapon States do not necessarily concur with the data given by non-official sources. In 1990, there are about 50,000 nuclear warheads deployed around the world on the territories of the nuclear weapon States and some non-nuclear weapon States, as well as on the high seas. Each of the two major powers has at least 10,000 nuclear warheads, which can be set into action in a major strategic attack within minutes or hours. The possibility of the development of nuclear weapons by additional States also continues to be a deep concern. The Fourth Review Conference of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons will take place at Geneva from 20 August to 14 September 1990. It is the last one before 1995, when a Conference will be held to decide whether the Treaty shall continue in force indefinitely, or shall be extended for an additional fixed period or periods. In addition, there have been recent reports of more countries developing short- and intermediate-range Nuclear Weapons, Nuclear War and Global Security... 1967 ballistic missiles. These issues may be expected to gain rising attention in the forthcoming months and years of the new decade. The end of the 1980s may have heralded an end to the cold war and the cresting of an escalating arms race that has prevailed for the 45 years since the Second World War. The growing rapprochement between East and West, movement towards settlement of various regional conflicts, important political changes in Europe and other regions of the world and the increasing involvement of the United Nations in major issues facing the international community create favourable opportunities for the pursuit of meaningful measures in arms limitation and disarmament. Indeed, major progress has been made in several areas, both bilaterally between the United States and the Soviet Union and between members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation and the Warsaw Pact. Although global stability and peace have not yet been attained, positive developments in international relations continue to gain momentum. These positive trends do not remove the need to continue the urgent search for solutions to regional problems in Asia and Africa so as to preclude the possibility of a conflict and, in particular, to prevent the use of weapons of mass destruction should a conflict nevertheless occur. This matter and its impact on global stability should be accorded the utmost importance. In the same decade the first agreement providing for actual reductions in nuclear weapons, the Treaty between the United States of America and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics on the Elimination of Their Intermediate-Range and Shorter-Range Missiles (INF Treaty), was signed in 1987. It provides for the elimination of a whole category of nuclear weapons under a system of unprecedented intrusive verification. This Treaty has paved the way for further progress on other arms limitation agreements. The nuclear arms race may be turned around by the strategic offensive arms reduction treaty (START), the basic provisions of which were agreed to by the Soviet Union and the United States in June 1990. The international community has welcomed the agreement on the framework for such a treaty—which will reduce the Soviet and United States strategic nuclear weapons by approximately 30 to 35 per cent— as contributing to global security and as a step towards nuclear disarmament. The continued improvement in international relations. particularly between the two major powers, the levelling off of the quantitative increases in the nuclear weapon arsenals, and the prospects for deep 1968 cuts all point to positive trends towards a less dangerous world. Although qualitative improvements in nuclear weapons continue and nuclear testing remains a contentious issue, the diminishing tension and the growing cooperation between East and West might facilitate the resolution of these issues as well. However, the possibility of the proliferation of nuclear weapons to additional States is of increasing concern. Some believe that the current political climate presents opportunities for taking steps that would minimise the chance or effect of possible untoward developments in the future. 1969 78 THE SWEDISH INITIATIVE ON ACCIDENTAL NUCLEAR WAR The Initiative Vastly improved East-West relations in the last few years have created better prospects for efforts with a view to common security and arms control agreements than ever before in the era following the Second World War. However, the danger of backlashes cannot be ignored. An intentional war between the major nuclear weapon states seems unlikely today. Nevertheless, technological developments, dangerous military doctrines, proliferation of nuclear weapons to additional countries, and regional conflicts in strategically important areas combine to create the risk of an accidental nuclear war. An initiative to avert such a threat now seems both urgent and promising. The aim of the Swedish Initiative is not to make nuclear weapons more acceptable, but to improve the possibilities for the survival of mankind pending the complete elimination of nuclear weapons. Representatives of all six political parties in the Swedish Parliament and nine Swedish professional organisations against nuclear arms have founded the “Swedish Initiative for the Prevention of Accidental Nuclear War” with a view to promoting measures to reduce the danger that a nuclear war might break out accidentally. Sweden has no nuclear weapons and does not belong to any military alliance. Still, there are good reasons why Sweden should take the initiative in this matter. Its geostrategic situation is strongly influenced by the deployment of nuclear weapons in nearby areas. Sweden has traditionally been ready to act as a mediator or to take initiatives in the area of multilateral arms control negotiations, as evidenced, for instance, at the Stockholm Conference in Security and Co-operation in 1970 Europe (CSCE). Its policy of non-participation in alliances has given Sweden opportunities to act internationally, in ways that are not always open to other States. After a period of keeping a nuclear weapon option, Sweden decided, in 1968, to renounce this option and, following this decision, to accede to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. The basic aim of the Swedish Initiative is to put the prevention of accidental nuclear war on the political agenda and to get things done in order to reduce the risks. For this purpose, an international conference was organised in Stockholm, from 14 to 16 November 1990, to design and present an “Action Programme” for reducing the risks of accidental nuclear war. Some thirty internationally renowned experts were invited to contribute to the Conference as consultants. They provided expert advice and a variety of proposals to the Swedish group, who finally formulated the programme. The Action Programme is addressed to the Swedish Parliament and Government as well as to other Governments, particularly those of the nuclear weapon States. The Action Programme proposes initiatives to be undertaken by the United Nations and in other international bodies. The Conference was organised under the auspices of the Speaker of the Swedish Parliament and the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences.
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