4 The Security Times February 2018

SECURITY STRATEGY

Continued from page 1 Power outage rather than an economic and political fact. Furthermore, his more mainstream advisers have not managed to “normalize” the administration; at best, they have achieved less bad outcomes, such as kicking the responsibility of reviewing the Iran nuclear deal over to Congress rather than just tearing it up. Under these circumstances, the publication of the Trump admin- istration’s first National Security Strategy in late December of 2017 was met with significantly more than the customary tepid specialist interest. But the docu- ment does not resolve the tension between the normalizers and the radicals – indeed, it enshrines it. On the one hand, the NSS makes dozens of references to partners and allies. It also makes a point of restating the presi- dent’s late and reluctant re-com- mitment to the mutual defense clause in Article 5 of the NATO RULES OF Treaty. On the other hand, it emphatically reinforces the dic- tate delivered in a now-notorious op-ed written in May by National Security Advisor H.R. McMaster and Gary Cohn, president of the ENGAGEMENT National Economic Council: the fundamental paradigm of Ameri- can power in the age of Trump is one of zero-sum competition rather than cooperation. And the FOR TRUMP rationale made by the NSS for US support of its allies in Europe and elsewhere is self-interested in the narrowest possible terms: America’s “allies and partners WORLD magnify US power and extend US influence.” The NSS also insists, rather remarkably, that the institutions FOTOLIA of domestic democracy must be made resilient to political inter- ference from abroad. This new Keeping Washington tethered to the international community during the president’s emphasis on challenges to US dominance by other great powers tenure will make it easier to repair the wreckage he leaves behind – specifically, Russia and China – was amplified shortly after pub- lication of the NSS by the new National Defense Strategy and populist nationalists; he has already lost It is difficult to know whether Trump’s change and trade. But in the meantime, its motto of “compete, deter, and BY CHARLES A. KUPCHAN much of the rest of the country. stop-and-go style is a sign of genetic the rest of the world is right to stand by win.” Written at the Pentagon Trump has gravitated to the far right inconstancy or part of a shrewd nego- the Paris climate agreement, even though under the aegis of Secretary of ne down, three to go. And judg- by inclination as much as by necessity. tiating strategy. But it does mean that Trump has renounced it. The same goes Defense Jim Mattis, this docu- ing by Trump’s first year in Even as Steve Bannon, Sebastian Gorka the door is open to negotiation, and for the Trans-Pacific Partnership; its ment is notable for its embrace Ooffice, the next three should be and other fervent ideologues have been concerned parties should walk through remaining members are doing the right of allies and partners, which it long and painful. As the US backs away banished from the White House, Trump’s that door. In the end, Trump may or thing by proceeding with a trade deal describes as “crucial” to Ameri- from is traditional role as team cap- racially tinged brand of nationalism has may not uphold the Iran deal, allow despite Trump’s withdrawal from the can strategy. Given the increas- tain, its “America First” foreign policy continued, if not deepened. His equivoca- Dreamers to stay in the US, preserve the pact. If Trump seeks to back away from ingly aggressive global assertive- is setting the world on edge. Trump has tion over neo-Nazi protesters in Char- health insurance of Americans in need or the World Trade Organization, it will be ness of both Russia and China, already pulled out of the Trans-Pacific lottesville, his insults toward Hispanic return to the Paris Agreement. Nonethe- up to other members to defend a rules- this re-focusing of US strategy Partnership and the Paris Climate Agree- immigrants, his decision to send back less, it is certainly worth trying to bring based trading order. makes sense, and Europeans can ment. Next on his chopping block may Haitians, Salvadorans and others who him around. To walk away from Trump While engaging Trump, America’s and should engage with it. well be the Iran nuclear deal and US came to the United States to escape con- is to encourage his worst instincts. partners, and Europe in particular, must If only the commander in chief participation in NAFTA and the World flict and natural disaster, his disparaging Second, engaging Trump does not prevent him from dismantling the lib- agreed. President Trump has Trade Organization. comments about Africa – this is the real mean bending to his wishes; it means eral norms and rules-based institutions made it clear – in his speeches America’s deliberate undermining of the Donald Trump, not a political concoction attempting to bring him around to sensi- that have long anchored the West. on the launch of the NSS, his rules-based international order it worked of his handlers. ble positions, and standing one’s ground Europe should make sure that the next Davos speech and his State of so hard to establish after World War II Confronted with this sobering reality, when that effort fails. On the Iran US president does not assume office in the Union address – that he does has left America’s partners understand- how should the international community nuclear deal, America’s partners must a Western world that has been reduced not share the strategic frame- ably vexed, and wondering when it is time handle the remainder of Trump’s tumultu- staunchly defend the pact, come what to rubble. work advocated by his advisors. to give up on Trump. But even if justified, ous presidency? may; it is the only game in town. How- Third, America’s friends must prevent Trump continues to argue for their approach is ill-advised. popular opposition to Trump from trans- cooperation with Putin’s Russia, Instead of turning their backs on Trump forming into anti-American sentiment. and sees China chiefly as a trade in anger and frustration, friends of the US Even if anger toward Trump may be adversary; the top three threats should engage the president with hopes of TO WALK AWAY understandable, and even if politicians he obsesses over are immigrants, curbing his destructive instincts. Trump are tempted to cater to it, doing so risks terrorists and North Korea. He will do more damage if he feels isolated, FROM TRUMP IS TO setting democratic societies against the remains disdainful of the notion rejected and cut loose, while holding US. If leaders around the world are that has underpinned US strategy him close provides at least some leverage to remain committed to working with since World War II: American over his behavior and may impress upon ENCOURAGE HIS WORST Trump whenever possible – as well as stewardship of a liberal interna- him that partnership has its advantages. reaching out to the US bureaucracy, tional order is in the American Moreover, the Trump presidency will not INSTINCTS Congress, and state and local officials, interest. last forever. Trying to keep Washington all of which may be better partners than Even more importantly, tethered to the international community the White House – they must ensure that Trump appears to believe that during his tenure will make it easier to First, America’s partners should con- ever, Europeans should engage Wash- their own electorates have not come to the US should to be able to use repair the wreckage he leaves behind. tinue to try to connect with Trump, ington on the deal’s sunset provisions write off the US. nuclear weapons, would win a Learning to live with the Trump presi- seeking to exercise whatever influence and how best to counter Iran’s missile Otherwise, any hope of sustaining trade war against China and dency means accepting the harsh reality they may have over his behavior. Trump program and its destabilizing regional a sense of solidarity and community could emerge victorious from that what you see is what you get. Indeed, craves respect and acceptance; shunning behavior. Exploring side agreements or among the Atlantic democracies will a preventive “bloody nose” his presidency is likely to get worse, not and isolating him will only make matters follow-on arrangements for addressing prove illusory. Otherwise, the US presi- strike against North Korea. better, in the months ahead. The adults worse. Moreover, engagement indeed has these issues may succeed in convincing dent following Trump may preside Should any of these come to in the room – John Kelley, Rex Til- the potential to yield concrete payoffs. Trump not to scuttle the deal. A good over a country that has turned sharply pass, the world would become lerson, H.R. McMaster, James Mattis Even when Trump appears ready to start faith effort to address Trump’s concerns inward and lost its internationalist a different place. But even if – are unable to tame Trump, and some dismantling policies he does not like, he – rather than dismissing them – may be calling. they are avoided, the presi- of them may well jump ship in the near tends to offer an escape hatch. just enough to keep him on board. It is The United States, long the anchor of dent’s inability or unwilling- future, eliminating whatever moderat- Rather than simply dismantling the Iran worth a try. republican ideals and multilateralism, is ness to tone down his rhetoric, ing influence they may exercise. Trump deal, he handed it over to Congress to In similar fashion, the international backing away from both under Trump’s his overt disagreements with is also likely to ramp up his hard-edged address his concerns. He announced the community should keep working on leadership. This turn in US politics is his advisors or his contempt populism as the mid-term elections draw end of the program allowing Dreamers Trump regarding issues like climate part of a broader surge in illiberalism for allies will lead America’s near. With the Democrats poised to do (residents who entered or remained in and populist nationalism playing out in friends to hedge their bets. As well in November, Trump will seek to the country illegally as minors) to stay many quarters of the globe. for America’s adversaries, they rally his base by doubling down on his in the US, but then opened a dialogue CHARLES A. KUPCHAN To help ensure that we are witnessing will feel encouraged to fill the nationalist and populist agenda. with Democrats about preserving it. He is professor of International only a temporary setback – not a perma- vacuum the superpower leaves Having alienated the more centrist declared he was rescinding health care Affairs at Georgetown nent reversal – in the fortunes of liberal behind. voters who helped him win the presi- subsidies needed to fund Obamacare, but University and Senior Fellow politics, America’s partners should keep dency, Trump is retreating to his faithful soon thereafter entertained a bipartisan at the Council on Foreign reaching out to Trump and resist the Relations. He served on the base, which at least for now has com- proposal to salvage the funding. Even US National Security Council temptation to distance themselves from CONSTANZE mandeered the Republican Party. The though Trump has announced his inten- the US. Engaging Trump will limit the STELZENMÜLLER from 2014 to 2017. This article is the inaugural Robert Bosch Republican establishment is running for tion to withdraw from the Paris climate draws on an essay originally damage he can do, and make it more Senior Fellow at the Brookings cover in the face of a mobilized and angry agreement, the US cannot formally exit published in Süddeutsche likely that the Trump era represents a Institution. base. Whether he likes it or not, Trump is the accord until 2020, leaving room to Zeitung and Foreign Policy. dark detour for Americans – and not the beholden to an ascendant insurgency of maneuver. new normal.