Public Polling Analysis September 14, 2017 America First Policies Paid for by America First Policies © America First Policies, All Rights Reserved Table of Contents I. National Environment ......................................................................................... 2 Direction of the Country Issue Importance Trump Favorability Trump Job Approval II. Making Headlines ................................................................................................ 5 III. Hurricane Irma .................................................................................................. 14 IV. Tax Reform ........................................................................................................ 18 V. Russia ................................................................................................................ 29 National Environment Direction of the Country Little change has been seen in Americans’ perception of the direction of the country. Likely voters were more likely to report things were going “in the right direction” compared with Americans overall. Rasmussen Reports, n= 2500 Likely Voters 9/3-7/17 8/27-31/17 8/20-24/17 8/13-17/17 Right Direction 34% 32% 29% 30% Wrong Track 59% 61% 64% 64% Would you say things in this country today are... The Economist/YouGov, September 10-12, 2017, n=1500 US Adults Total Male Female Right Direction 28% 32% 24% Wrong Track 56% 55% 58% Generally speaking, would you say things in this country are heading in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track? Reuters/Ipsos, Americans online 9/8-12/17, N=1669 9/1-5/17, N=1,672 Right Direction 26% 27% Wrong Track 59% 60% Unsure 15% 13% NATIONAL POLLING MEMO 2 Baselice and Associates | National Research Inc | the polling company, inc./Woman Trend Issue Importance Healthcare, financial stability, and safety are top of mind issues for the American public. In your opinion, what is the most important problem facing the US today? Reuters/Ipsos, September 8 – 12 , 2017, n=1,669 Americans online Total Healthcare 17% Economy generally 12% Terrorism / terrorist attacks 12% Immigration 9% War / foreign conflicts 8% Morality 8% Which of these is the most important issue for you? The Economist/YouGov, September 10-12, 2017, n=1500 US Adults Total Healthcare 21% Social Security 14% The economy 13% Terrorism 10% The environment 8% Education 8% Abortion 5% Immigration 5% Trump Favorability Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of Donald Trump? The Economist/YouGov, September 10-12, 2017, n=1500 US Adults Total Men Women Total Favorable 40% 44% 36% Total Unfavorable 52% 49% 57% Very Favorable 24% 27% 21% Somewhat Favorable 16% 17% 15% Somewhat Unfavorable 10% 11% 10% Very Unfavorable 42% 38% 47% Don’t Know 8% 7% 8% NATIONAL POLLING MEMO 3 Baselice and Associates | National Research Inc | the polling company, inc./Woman Trend Trump Job Approval The President’s job approval dropped slightly over the past week. Reuters/Ipsos, September 8 – 12 , 2017, n=1,669 Americans online Total Democrat Republican Independent Total Approve 35% 9% 75% 30% Total Disapprove 59% 87% 22% 62% The way Donald Trump is handling is job as president Gallup Poll, n= approx. 1,500 Adults nationwide Approve Disapprove Delta 9/11-13/17 37% 56% -19 9/10-12/17 37% 57% -20 9/9-11/17 37% 58% -21 9/8-10/17 38% 57% -19 9/7-9/17 38% 56% -18 9/6-8/17 38% 56% -18 Rasumussen, n=1,500 likely voters Total Approve Total Disapprove Delta 9/14/17 44% 54% -10 9/13/17 42% 56% -14 9/12/17 44% 54% -10 9/11/17 44% 55% -11 9/8/17 46% 53% -7 9/7/17 45% 54% -9 9/6/17 45% 53% -8 The Economist/YouGov, September 10-12, 2017, n=1500 US Adults Total Approve Total Disapprove Delta 9/10-12/17 39% 52% -13 9/3-5/17 41% 52% -11 NATIONAL POLLING MEMO 4 Baselice and Associates | National Research Inc | the polling company, inc./Woman Trend Making Headlines Rasmussen Reports: Most Voters Welcome Trump’s Outreach to Congressional Democrats Wednesday, September 13, 2017 Despite their failure to advance President Trump’s agenda, congressional Republicans aren’t happy about his outreach to Democrats in the House and Senate, but most voters think it’s a great idea. A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 66% of Likely U.S. Voters say it is good for the country if Trump works with congressional Democrats to advance his agenda. Just 13% think the bipartisan cooperation is bad for the country, while 21% are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.) Only 19% believe the president should continue to rely on congressional Republicans to pass his agenda. That’s down from 29% in early April. Sixty-five percent (65%) now feel he should reach out more to Democrats in Congress for help versus 58% who felt that way five months ago. Sixteen percent (16%) are not sure. Republicans (72%) are even more enthusiastic about the president working with congressional Democrats than Democrats (62%) and voters not affiliated with either major party (63%) are. Trump surprised his fellow Republicans when he bypassed them last week to strike a deal with congressional Democrats to move quickly on aid for victims of Hurricane Harvey and to raise the ceiling on government money borrowing until mid-December. (Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook. The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on September 10-11, 2017 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology. Voters are more likely to believe Republicans in Congress are the bigger problem for Trump than Democrats are. NATIONAL POLLING MEMO 5 Baselice and Associates | National Research Inc | the polling company, inc./Woman Trend Only 35% of GOP voters believe the president should continue to rely on congressional Republicans to pass his agenda. Fifty-one percent (51%) say he should turn instead to Democrats in Congress, a view shared by 79% of Democrats and 64% of unaffiliated voters. Men and those 40 and over believe more strongly than women and younger voters that it’s good for the country if the president works with congressional Democrats to advance his agenda. Even among voters who believe Trump should continue to rely on Republicans in Congress, 55% say it’s better for the country if he works with Democrats. Among voters who Strongly Approve of the job the president is doing, 71% say it’s better for the country if he works with congressional Democrats, and a plurality (49%) feels he should reach out more to Democrats. Those who Strongly Disapprove of Trump’s job performance strongly agree. Trump has been critical of Republican congressional leaders for their failure to repeal Obamacare and to advance other items on his agenda. By a 50% to 32% margin, Republican voters think the president’s criticism of senators in his own party is good for the country. Republican voters say they relate more to the president’s political views than those of their party's representatives in Congress. Most Republicans also say the majority of GOP members of Congress have lost touch with the party's voters from throughout the nation. Most Republican voters don't care much these days for Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, making him now the most unpopular of the top congressional leaders. Republicans are in charge of both houses of Congress, but only 14% of voters rate the way the House of Representatives is doing its job as good or excellent, while 11% say the same of the U.S. Senate. Trump was at odds with the Republican establishment through much of last year’s presidential campaign, and just a month before the election, 51% of GOP voters believed that most Republican leaders did not want him to be elected president. NATIONAL POLLING MEMO 6 Baselice and Associates | National Research Inc | the polling company, inc./Woman Trend The Washington Times: Trashing Trump: Broadcast coverage of the president now 91% negative, say analysts Much of the news media continues to offer coverage which is both hostile and biased against President Trump and his administration. Case in point: a wide-reaching new study from the Media Research Center finds that 91 percent of the recent coverage which aired on ABC, CBS and NBC has been negative. “Since January 20, Media Research Center analysts have reviewed every mention of President Trump and top administration officials on ABC’s World News Tonight, the CBS Evening News and NBC Nightly News, including weekends,” write research director Rich Noyes and Mike Ciandella, a senior analyst for the conservative press watchdog. “As of August 31, coverage of the administration has totaled nearly 74 hours (4,418 minutes) of airtime, or about 39 percent of all evening news coverage. “Analyzing the networks’ spin makes it clear that the goal of all of this heavy coverage is not to promote the President, but to punish him,” the analysts said. “In June, July and August, broadcast evening news coverage of Trump was 91 percent negative — worse than the astounding 89 percent negative spin we calculated during the first three months of the administration, usually a traditional honeymoon period for new presidents.” They based their judgment on the actual tone and content of evaluative statements from those who appeared on camera, including “experts” billed by the three networks as nonpartisan, along with voters, reporters and other correspondents. “The networks’ aggressive anti-Trump spin has been constant throughout 2017, as it was during the presidential campaign last year. The closest the evening newscasts came to achieving balanced coverage was in April, when a few reporters and analysts praised the President’s use of cruise missiles to punish the Syrian regime for a chemical weapons attack.