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Home , America First Policies, Gary Cohn, Mick Mulvaney, Rasmussen Reports, Ty Cobb (attorney)

September 14, 2017

America First Policies

Table of Contents

I. National Environment ...... 2 Direction of the Country Issue Importance Trump Favorability Trump Job Approval II. Making Headlines ...... 5 III. Hurricane Irma ...... 14 IV. Tax Reform ...... 18 V. Russia ...... 29

National Environment

Direction of the Country Little change has been seen in Americans’ perception of the direction of the country. Likely voters were more likely to report things were going “in the right direction” compared with Americans overall.

Rasmussen Reports, n= 2500 Likely Voters 9/3-7/17 8/27-31/17 8/20-24/17 8/13-17/17 Right Direction 34% 32% 29% 30% Wrong Track 59% 61% 64% 64%

Would you say things in this country today are... The Economist/YouGov, September 10-12, 2017, n=1500 US Adults Total Male Female Right Direction 28% 32% 24% Wrong Track 56% 55% 58%

Generally speaking, would you say things in this country are heading in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track? Reuters/Ipsos, Americans online 9/8-12/17, N=1669 9/1-5/17, N=1,672 Right Direction 26% 27% Wrong Track 59% 60% Unsure 15% 13%

NATIONAL POLLING MEMO 2 Baselice and Associates | National Research Inc | the polling company, inc./Woman Trend

Issue Importance Healthcare, financial stability, and safety are top of mind issues for the American public.

In your opinion, what is the most important problem facing the US today? Reuters/Ipsos, September 8 – 12 , 2017, n=1,669 Americans online Total Healthcare 17% Economy generally 12% Terrorism / terrorist attacks 12% Immigration 9% War / foreign conflicts 8% Morality 8%

Which of these is the most important issue for you? The Economist/YouGov, September 10-12, 2017, n=1500 US Adults Total Healthcare 21% Social Security 14% The economy 13% Terrorism 10% The environment 8% Education 8% Abortion 5% Immigration 5% Trump Favorability Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of Donald Trump? The Economist/YouGov, September 10-12, 2017, n=1500 US Adults Total Men Women Total Favorable 40% 44% 36% Total Unfavorable 52% 49% 57% Very Favorable 24% 27% 21% Somewhat Favorable 16% 17% 15% Somewhat Unfavorable 10% 11% 10% Very Unfavorable 42% 38% 47% Don’t Know 8% 7% 8%

NATIONAL POLLING MEMO 3 Baselice and Associates | National Research Inc | the polling company, inc./Woman Trend

Trump Job Approval The President’s job approval dropped slightly over the past week.

Reuters/Ipsos, September 8 – 12 , 2017, n=1,669 Americans online Total Democrat Republican Independent Total Approve 35% 9% 75% 30% Total Disapprove 59% 87% 22% 62%

The way Donald Trump is handling is job as president Gallup Poll, n= approx. 1,500 Adults nationwide Approve Disapprove Delta 9/11-13/17 37% 56% -19 9/10-12/17 37% 57% -20 9/9-11/17 37% 58% -21 9/8-10/17 38% 57% -19 9/7-9/17 38% 56% -18 9/6-8/17 38% 56% -18

Rasumussen, n=1,500 likely voters Total Approve Total Disapprove Delta 9/14/17 44% 54% -10 9/13/17 42% 56% -14 9/12/17 44% 54% -10 9/11/17 44% 55% -11 9/8/17 46% 53% -7 9/7/17 45% 54% -9 9/6/17 45% 53% -8

The Economist/YouGov, September 10-12, 2017, n=1500 US Adults Total Approve Total Disapprove Delta 9/10-12/17 39% 52% -13 9/3-5/17 41% 52% -11

NATIONAL POLLING MEMO 4 Baselice and Associates | National Research Inc | the polling company, inc./Woman Trend

Making Headlines

Rasmussen Reports: Most Voters Welcome Trump’s Outreach to Congressional Democrats

Wednesday, September 13, 2017

Despite their failure to advance President Trump’s agenda, congressional Republicans aren’t happy about his outreach to Democrats in the House and Senate, but most voters think it’s a great idea.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 66% of Likely U.S. Voters say it is good for the country if Trump works with congressional Democrats to advance his agenda. Just 13% think the bipartisan cooperation is bad for the country, while 21% are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Only 19% believe the president should continue to rely on congressional Republicans to pass his agenda. That’s down from 29% in early April. Sixty-five percent (65%) now feel he should reach out more to Democrats in Congress for help versus 58% who felt that way five months ago. Sixteen percent (16%) are not sure.

Republicans (72%) are even more enthusiastic about the president working with congressional Democrats than Democrats (62%) and voters not affiliated with either major party (63%) are.

Trump surprised his fellow Republicans when he bypassed them last week to strike a deal with congressional Democrats to move quickly on aid for victims of Hurricane Harvey and to raise the ceiling on government money borrowing until mid-December.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on September 10-11, 2017 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Voters are more likely to believe Republicans in Congress are the bigger problem for Trump than Democrats are.

NATIONAL POLLING MEMO 5 Baselice and Associates | National Research Inc | the polling company, inc./Woman Trend

Only 35% of GOP voters believe the president should continue to rely on congressional Republicans to pass his agenda. Fifty-one percent (51%) say he should turn instead to Democrats in Congress, a view shared by 79% of Democrats and 64% of unaffiliated voters.

Men and those 40 and over believe more strongly than women and younger voters that it’s good for the country if the president works with congressional Democrats to advance his agenda.

Even among voters who believe Trump should continue to rely on Republicans in Congress, 55% say it’s better for the country if he works with Democrats.

Among voters who Strongly Approve of the job the president is doing, 71% say it’s better for the country if he works with congressional Democrats, and a plurality (49%) feels he should reach out more to Democrats. Those who Strongly Disapprove of Trump’s job performance strongly agree.

Trump has been critical of Republican congressional leaders for their failure to repeal Obamacare and to advance other items on his agenda. By a 50% to 32% margin, Republican voters think the president’s criticism of senators in his own party is good for the country.

Republican voters say they relate more to the president’s political views than those of their party's representatives in Congress.

Most Republicans also say the majority of GOP members of Congress have lost touch with the party's voters from throughout the nation.

Most Republican voters don't care much these days for Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, making him now the most unpopular of the top congressional leaders.

Republicans are in charge of both houses of Congress, but only 14% of voters rate the way the House of Representatives is doing its job as good or excellent, while 11% say the same of the U.S. Senate.

Trump was at odds with the Republican establishment through much of last year’s presidential campaign, and just a month before the election, 51% of GOP voters believed that most Republican leaders did not want him to be elected president.

NATIONAL POLLING MEMO 6 Baselice and Associates | National Research Inc | the polling company, inc./Woman Trend

The Washington Times: Trashing Trump: Broadcast coverage of the president now 91% negative, say analysts

Much of the news media continues to offer coverage which is both hostile and biased against President Trump and his administration. Case in point: a wide-reaching new study from the Media Research Center finds that 91 percent of the recent coverage which aired on ABC, CBS and NBC has been negative.

“Since January 20, Media Research Center analysts have reviewed every mention of President Trump and top administration officials on ABC’s World News Tonight, the CBS Evening News and NBC Nightly News, including weekends,” write research director Rich Noyes and Mike Ciandella, a senior analyst for the conservative press watchdog. “As of August 31, coverage of the administration has totaled nearly 74 hours (4,418 minutes) of airtime, or about 39 percent of all evening news coverage.

“Analyzing the networks’ spin makes it clear that the goal of all of this heavy coverage is not to promote the President, but to punish him,” the analysts said. “In June, July and August, broadcast evening news coverage of Trump was 91 percent negative — worse than the astounding 89 percent negative spin we calculated during the first three months of the administration, usually a traditional honeymoon period for new presidents.”

They based their judgment on the actual tone and content of evaluative statements from those who appeared on camera, including “experts” billed by the three networks as nonpartisan, along with voters, reporters and other correspondents.

“The networks’ aggressive anti-Trump spin has been constant throughout 2017, as it was during the presidential campaign last year. The closest the evening newscasts came to achieving balanced coverage was in April, when a few reporters and analysts praised the President’s use of cruise missiles to punish the Syrian regime for a chemical weapons attack. Yet network coverage that month was still skewed against Trump by a greater than four-to-one ratio,” the two analysts said, noting that all three of the networks treated Mr. Trump’s election as if is was a “national crisis.”

Four topics “consumed” ABC, CBS and NBC — with the ongoing Russia investigation leading the way, followed by he failed attempt to repeal Obamacare, Mr. Trump’s stance towards the North Korean threat, and his response to the violence in Charlottesville. Coverage of those topics was up to 97 percent negative, the study found.

NATIONAL POLLING MEMO 7 Baselice and Associates | National Research Inc | the polling company, inc./Woman Trend

“The networks’ aggression in covering Trump contrasts with their docile, often adoring coverage of President Obama,” the analysts said. “The key difference is that Obama’s policies matched the liberal media’s preferences, while Trump’s agenda clearly clashes with the establishment media’s world view.”

Politico: Poll: Majority wants Congress to establish path to citizenship for DACA recipients Steven Shepard | September 13, 2017

A majority of voters want Congress to pass legislation that allows undocumented immigrants brought to the U.S. as children to become citizens if they meet certain requirements, according to a new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll conducted following the Trump administration’s decision to wind down the program protecting these so-called Dreamers from deportation.

The poll — conducted in the days after Attorney General Jeff Sessions announced that the administration was ending the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program, which Sessions described as “unilateral executive amnesty” that “contributed to a surge of unaccompanied minors on the southern border” and “denied jobs to hundreds of thousands of Americans” — shows that 54 percent of voters want Congress to establish a path to citizenship for DACA recipients, and another 19 percent want Congress to allow them to stay without establishing citizenship.

“Not only do a majority, 73 percent, of voters want legislation protecting Dreamers from deportation, a majority want Congress to make that a priority,” said Kyle Dropp, Morning Consult’s co-founder and chief research officer. “Overall, 65 percent of voters say protecting Dreamers should be either an important or top priority for Congress.”

Just 35 percent say ending the DACA program was the right thing to do — fewer than the 45 percent who say it was the wrong thing to do. Two-in-10 voters are not sure.

The polling data largely stand in contrast to Sessions’ statement last week but are perhaps more in line with President Donald Trump’s comments about DACA recipients. “I have a lot of love for these people, and hopefully now Congress will be able to help them and do it properly,” Trump said the same day Sessions made the announcement.

Only 12 percent of voters want Congress to pass legislation that removes or deports Dreamers — though failing to act within the administration’s six-month window may have the same effect.

Last week’s POLITICO/Morning Consult poll, which was conducted before the administration’s decision, also found little support for deporting undocumented immigrants brought to the U.S. NATIONAL POLLING MEMO 8 Baselice and Associates | National Research Inc | the polling company, inc./Woman Trend

as children. But Trump’s decision to wind down the DACA program has done little to alter public opinion.

In last week’s poll, 24 percent of Republicans thought DACA recipients should be deported; this week, 20 percent think Congress should codify that policy. Two-thirds of self-identified Trump voters wanted these immigrants to be allowed to stay in last week’s survey, and 68 percent of Trump voters want Congress to pass legislation that lets them remain in the U.S. in the new poll.

Even if voters, on the whole, want Congress to protect these immigrants from deportation, they don’t have much faith in the legislative branch to act. Only 17 percent say they are very confident Congress will pass such a measure in the next six months, with another 23 percent saying they are somewhat confident. But more voters are either not too confident (29 percent) or not confident at all (14 percent) Congress will be able to act in the next six months to protect them from deportation.

More voters now trust Democrats in Congress to handle immigration, 40 percent, than the 38 percent who trust Republicans. That is within the poll’s margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2 percentage points, though it’s the first time since the POLITICO/Morning Consult poll began asking the question earlier this year that Democrats have led on it.

While DACA was a political storm for the administration last week, the poll also asked voters about recent extreme weather and whether they think climate change played a role in Hurricanes Harvey and Irma.

More than a third, 34 percent, say climate change has contributed a lot to these storms, and another 27 percent say climate change has made some contribution. Only a combined 22 percent say climate change hasn’t had much of an impact or any impact at all.

Moreover, a 52 percent majority says climate change is making natural disasters more frequent — the same percentage that say it is making these disasters more powerful. Just a quarter of voters say climate change is not making natural disasters more frequent or more powerful.

Overall, 66 percent of voters say they are either very or somewhat concerned about climate change and the impact it is having on the environment — though that is mostly unchanged from the last time the question was asked, in April. The poll of 1,976 registered voters was conducted September 7-11.

NATIONAL POLLING MEMO 9 Baselice and Associates | National Research Inc | the polling company, inc./Woman Trend

State Races By the Numbers…

Politico: A new poll paid for by Senate Majority PAC shows Arizona Sen. Jeff Flake in deep trouble in both the primary and general election phases of his Senate bid.

The poll, conducted by the Democratic firm GBA Strategies, has the incumbent Republican trailing former state Sen. Kelli Ward by substantial margins in the GOP primary. Flake is also behind Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema in the poll's general election matchup.

Flake, a staunch fiscal conservative, has faced intra-party attacks for his repeated criticisms of President Donald Trump's behavior and demeanor.

Ward leads Flake in the primary test by a wide margin, 58 percent to 31 percent. Only 25 percent of GOP primary voters have a favorable opinion of Flake, while 56 percent have an unfavorable opinion. Just 34 percent approve of Flake's job performance, and 59 percent disapprove.

Sinema leads Flake, 47 percent to 40 percent, in the general election matchup. Flake's job approval is at 38 percent among the general election electorate, with 50 percent disapproval. Just 23 percent have a favorable opinion of him, and 48 percent have an unfavorable opinion.

GBA Strategies conducted the poll of 600 likely general election voters and 500 likely GOP primary voters from Aug. 30 to Sept. 7. The general election sample has a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points, while the GOP primary sample has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

September 13, 2017 - Dem Has Huge Lead In New Jersey Governor's Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Guadagno's Ties To Christie Are Big Negative

In the race for New Jersey governor, Democrat Phil Murphy leads Republican Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno 58 - 33 percent among likely voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Murphy leads Guadagno among every party, gender, education, age and racial group listed, except Republicans, who back Guadagno 78 - 16 percent; white voters with no college degree, who are divided with 46 percent for Guadagno and 42 percent for Murphy, and white men who are split with 46 percent for Murphy and 45 percent for Guadagno, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds. NATIONAL POLLING MEMO 10 Baselice and Associates | National Research Inc | the polling company, inc./Woman Trend

This survey of likely voters can not be compared to earlier surveys of registered voters.

New Jersey likely voters have a 37 - 18 percent favorable opinion of Murphy, with 43 percent who haven't heard enough about him to form an opinion. Guadagno gets a negative 25 - 33 percent favorability, with 40 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion.

Taxes is the most important issue in deciding their vote for governor, 30 percent of likely voters say, as 15 percent list the economy; 13 percent cite education and 11 percent say health care.

"As far as candidate qualifications go, New Jersey is holding a stealth election. Democrat Phil Murphy swamps Republican Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno, but about 40 percent of voters don't know much about either of them," said Maurice Carroll, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

"Each of them dominates among their own party's voters, but Murphy gets more Democrats and there are more of them to get in very blue New Jersey.

"Predictably, taxes are the number one voter concern.

"Working for Goldman Sachs hurts Murphy a little. Serving as lieutenant governor to Gov. Chris Christie hurts Guadagno a lot more.

"Are New Jersey voters buying a pig in a poke? It will be an interesting governorship."

For 47 percent of New Jersey likely voters, Guadagno's role as lieutenant governor to Gov. Christopher Christie has a negative impact on their opinion of her. Another 11 percent say it has a positive impact and 40 percent say it doesn't matter.

Murphy's 23 years at Goldman Sachs creates a negative impact on the opinion of 30 percent of likely voters. For 6 percent, it has a positive impact and 60 percent say it doesn't matter.

From September 7 - 12, Quinnipiac University surveyed 875 New Jersey likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points, including the design effect. Live interviewers call landlines and cell phones.

NATIONAL POLLING MEMO 11 Baselice and Associates | National Research Inc | the polling company, inc./Woman Trend

September 11, 2017 Media Contact: Peter Hall [email protected] 617-824-8737

Emerson College Poll: Moore with Significant Lead Over Strange for GOP US Senate Nomination in Alabama. Democrat Doug Jones in statistical tie with both Republicans for General Election.

A new Emerson Poll finds Alabama incumbent Senator Luther Strange trailing former Judge Roy Moore by 14 percentage points with about two weeks until the Special Election on September 26. Moore polled at 40% while Strange was at 26%. Thirty-four percent (34%) of voters were undecided, and the survey had a margin of error of 5.2 percentage points.

Voters in Alabama gave President Trump a 52% job approval and 36% disapproval, but that popularity has not transferred to his endorsed candidate Strange, as voters who approve of the President are breaking for Moore 51% to 32%.

Supporters of Republican Congressman Mo Brooks who grabbed 20% in the GOP primary in August appear to be splitting their vote between Moore and Strange, with about 1/3rd breaking for each candidates and the last third undecided.

Regardless of who wins the divisive GOP nomination it appears Democrat Doug Jones will start in a competitive position for the General election as he trails Strange 40% to 43%, and Moore 40% to 44%, well within the polls 4.8% margin of error.

The GOP primary may have left supporters of both candidates unwilling at this time to support their party rival. Of those voting for Moore in the primary, 25% said they will vote for Jones and 49% said they would vote for Strange in the General. Similarly, Strange supporters found 31% voting for Jones and 34% voting for Moore. The GOP will need to find a way to unite during the 11 weeks until the General Election, or face the prospect of Jones pulling off an upset. If Jones were to win, Alabama could send their first Democrat to the US Senate in over 20 years.

The Emerson College Polling Society, under the supervision of Professor Spencer Kimball presents these findings based on a poll of Likely Voters in Alabama, for the Republican Special Election September 26, 2017 and of all likely voters for the December 12 General Election. All respondents interviewed in this study were part of a fully representative sample using an area probabilistic sample of registered voters from Aristotle International. The overall sample size was N= 416 with a margin of error of +/- 4.8 percentage points in 19 of 20 cases. In the Republican Primary the sample was n= 355 with a MOE of +/- 5.2 percentage points. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age and party breakdowns carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only and was conducted September 8-9, 2017.

NATIONAL POLLING MEMO 12 Baselice and Associates | National Research Inc | the polling company, inc./Woman Trend

This survey uses statistical weighting procedures to account for deviations in the survey sample from known population characteristics, which helps correct for differential survey participation and random variation in samples. The overall adult sample is weighted to recent Census and voting behavior data using a sample balancing procedure to match the demographic makeup with age and gender. Margins of sampling error for this survey are not adjusted for design effect.

Emerson College Polling Weekly is the official podcast for the Emerson College poll. The podcast is available on iTunes, Stitcher and the CLNS Media Mobile App. Visit our website at www.emersoncollegepollingsociety.com and follow us on Twitter @EmersonPolling.

NATIONAL POLLING MEMO 13 Baselice and Associates | National Research Inc | the polling company, inc./Woman Trend

Hurricane Irma

By the Numbers:

How much do you think Donald Trump cares about the needs and problems of people affected by hurricanes? The Economist/YouGov, September 10-12, 2017, n=1500 US Adults Total Cares 61% Total Does Not Care 39% A lot 35% Some 26% Not much 19% Not at all 20%

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump has handled the response to Hurricane Irma? The Economist/YouGov, September 10-12, 2017, n=1500 US Adults Total Approve 49% Total Disapprove 23% Strongly approve 28% Somewhat approve 21% Somewhat disapprove 10% Strongly disapprove 13% Not Sure 28%

ABC News: Trump meets with Hurricane Irma responders and victims in Florida

BY VERONICA STRACQUALURSI and JORDYN PHELPS Sep 14, 2017, 1:05 PM ET

President Donald Trump met with emergency responders in Florida today, thanking them for what he called their "incredible" work after Hurricane Irma hit the state over the weekend.

The president and first lady Melania Trump – both sporting white baseball hats -- were greeted on the tarmac by Vice President Mike Pence, who landed a bit before the Trumps; Florida

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Gov. Rick Scott and his wife; Florida Sen. Marco Rubio; state Attorney General Pam Bondi; and the Federal Emergency Management Agency's administrator, Brock Long.

"People thought thousands and thousands of people may have their lives ended, and the number is a very small number, which is a great tribute to you," Trump said to the first responders.

He praised FEMA and the Coast Guard and "the job you've done in saving people and saving lives."

Trump also said they are "way ahead of schedule" in restoring power back to parts of Florida.

The president publicly thanked Rubio, who ran against Trump in the GOP presidential primary and has had a troubled relationship with him, for the senator's work in response to Irma. Trump also suggested that Gov. Scott run for Senate in 2018 to challenge the state's other U.S. senator, Democrat Bill Nelson.

Trump addressed what he called the "very special problem" in the Florida Keys, where 90 percent of homes had at least some damage, according to FEMA.

"We're working very hard on that, and we have a lot of goods out there, a lot of water, food, a lot of everything," the president said.

He also went to Naples, Florida, to meet with Hurricane Irma victims.

"We are there for you 100 percent," Trump said, as he toured the damaged neighborhood, promising that he would be back to Florida “numerous times.” He and the first lady handed out food and shook hands with the hurricane survivors.

An official confirmed to ABC News that a visit by the president to the U.S. Virgin Islands, which was also hit by the hurricane, is a possibility, and said that if it does occur, it wouldn't happen until next week at the earliest.

This is the third trip Trump has made in response to a natural disaster. After record flooding from Hurricane Harvey devastated parts of Texas earlier this month, Trump made two visits, first to Corpus Christi and Austin on Aug. 29 and later to Houston on Sept. 2.

NATIONAL POLLING MEMO 15 Baselice and Associates | National Research Inc | the polling company, inc./Woman Trend

USA Today: Analysis: After hurricanes, President Trump takes up role of 'responder-in-chief'

WASHINGTON — The one-two punch of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma have thrust President Trump into one of the most perilous roles of any modern president: That of responder-in-chief.

Disasters — both natural and man-made — have become critical tests of presidential leadership. If the crisis response is perceived as quick and efficient, the president gets the credit. If it's slow and bureaucratic, the president can pay a political price.

And by most accounts, the Trump administration has handled the double-barreled hurricanes competently — if not always empathetically.

"I think he's done fine. He's prepared disaster declarations. He's stayed out of the way of the response, and most of all he's appointed a professional FEMA director," said Patrick Roberts, who studies the federal response to disasters at Virginia Tech. "He has also used the presidential megaphone to tell people that this is a serious storm and pay attention and that's one of the most important thing a president can do in terms of messaging."

Trump has repeatedly used his Twitter account to call Irma a storm of "epic proportion,"and to tell people to heed instructions of state and local officials to evacuate.

But his first trip to visit the damage caused by Hurricane Harvey was largely seen as lacking the overt displays of compassion shown by some of his predecessors.

The Tuesday after the weekend storm, Trump visited a Corpus Christi fire station, waved the flag of Texas, and toured the state's emergency operations center in Austin — all without getting his feet wet or meeting with victims of the disaster. Nonetheless, he later tweeted that he had witnessed "first hand the horror and devastation" of Harvey.

Energy Secretary Rick Perry later defended Trump, saying the president wanted to go to Houston earlier – but was advised to stay out of the way of the search and rescue response.

But cable pundits seized on the moment. "Startlingly, he did not utter one syllable about those who have lost their lives, their homes or businesses in the floods that are still swelling over southeast Texas," said David Axelrod, a former aide to President Barack Obama, on CNN.

NATIONAL POLLING MEMO 16 Baselice and Associates | National Research Inc | the polling company, inc./Woman Trend

So Trump returned to Houston four days later — this time visiting a shelter, shaking hands and hugging children. "We’re very happy with the way everything is going... There’s a lot of love," Trump said. "As tough as this was, it’s been a wonderful thing, I think even for the country to watch it and for the world to watch. It’s been beautiful.”

Trump hasn't yet announced a trip to Florida in the aftermath of Irma, but spent most of the weekend at Camp David huddling with emergency officials and said Sunday he plans to visit "very soon."

CBS News: Trump to travel to Florida, in aftermath of Hurricane Irma

By KATHRYN WATSON CBS NEWS September 13, 2017, 1:01 PM

President Trump will travel to Naples and the Fort Myers area in Florida on Thursday to observe the response to the damage wrought by Hurricane Irma.

Over the weekend, at Camp David, Mr. Trump met with his cabinet discussing how to manage fallout from Irma and Hurricane Harvey, another deadly storm. Mr. Trump's visit to Florida comes a mere two weeks after his last visit to Texas, where he met with victims from Harvey.

Irma has devastated Florida, causing at least 25 deaths as of Wednesday morning, and leaving millions without power. Among those dead were six elderly people in a nursing home that lost power. The storm struck the Florida Keys as a Category 4 storm, and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) estimated 25 percent of homes in the Keys are destroyed.

Mr. Trump earlier this week said the country is a "bit lucky" Irma veered from is original course, which would have pummeled Miami and Florida's populous southeastern coast. The president said Irma's devastation makes tax cuts more crucial now than ever, as his administration turns to overhauling the country's tax code.

Naples Mayor Bill Barnettsaid his city "took a real hard hit," but was spared from the worst-case scenario.

When Mr. Trump visited Houston, he didn't specifically survey damage but did meet with victims in a storm shelter and volunteers.

NATIONAL POLLING MEMO 17 Baselice and Associates | National Research Inc | the polling company, inc./Woman Trend

Tax Reform

By the Numbers:

How important are taxes to you? The Economist/YouGov, September 10-12, 2017, n=1500 US Adults Total Important 88% Total Not Important 12% Very Important 52% Somewhat Important 36% Not very Important 8% Unimportant 4%

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling taxes? The Economist/YouGov, September 10-12, 2017, n=1500 US Adults Total Approve 36% Total Disapprove 43% Strongly approve 18% Somewhat approve 18% Somewhat disapprove 15% Strongly disapprove 28% No opinion 21%

How likely is it that Congress with pass tax reform? The Economist/YouGov, September 10-12, 2017, n=1500 US Adults Total Likely 44% Total Unlikely 36% Very Likely 12% Somewhat Likely 32% Somewhat Unlikely 23% Very Unlikely 13% No opinion 21%

NATIONAL POLLING MEMO 18 Baselice and Associates | National Research Inc | the polling company, inc./Woman Trend

Politico: Big Six remain divided over basic elements of tax reform

By BRIAN FALER

The "Big Six" are deeply divided over how to rewrite the tax code, including how to finance long-promised cuts in individual and corporate rates.

Though House Republicans are promising to release a plan the week of Sept. 25, the top congressional and administration negotiators remain at loggerheads over a number of items, including plans to reduce a deduction for state and local taxes, as well as one for corporate interest expenses.

“Right now, the Senate and the House are pretty far apart,” said one Republican aide. “There’s serious frustration.”

Senate Finance Chairman Orrin Hatch (R-Utah), himself a member of the Big Six, fired a warning shot Thursday, saying his panel will not be a "rubber stamp" for whatever is proposed.

One major issue is whether to adopt a plan that would allow companies to immediately deduct the cost of their investments, sources say.

Known as "expensing," it’s a top priority for House Republican leaders because many economists say it’s one of the best things lawmakers can do for economic growth. What’s more, House Speaker Paul Ryan has already compromised on one of his other top priorities, a now-discarded proposal to create a “border adjustable” business tax that would have hit import-reliant companies.

But the deduction is hugely expensive, and Senate Republicans believe it won’t fly in their chamber. The White House, not to mention many in the business community, is much more interested in cutting the corporate tax rate as deeply as possible, though that is also pricey at roughly $100 billion for each percentage point reduction.

The Big Six are also divided over how sharply to cut a long-standing deduction for corporate interest expenses. House Republicans have proposed ending it entirely, which would raise some $1 trillion, covering a big chunk of the cost of any plan. But the break is important to many companies, and other negotiators want to only reduce it.

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The group is also at odds over eliminating a long-standing deduction that individuals can take for the state and local taxes they pay. Ryan has repeatedly called for eliminating it entirely, calling it a subsidy for state governments, but some are concerned over what that would mean for upper-middle class people.

Hatch, meanwhile, is pushing a so-called corporate integration plan that would shift some of corporations' tax burden onto their shareholders. He believes that would be a more cost- effective way of reducing the tax burden companies actually pay, though the idea has not gotten much traction with House Republicans.

In a sign of the tensions, Hatch signaled Thursday that he would treat the long-promised tax framework only as a guidepost — not necessarily a binding commitment.

His tax-writing committee won't be "anyone's rubber stamp," Hatch said Thursday.

"The group — some have deemed us the Big Six — will not dictate the direction we take in this committee," he said.

“Any forthcoming documents may be viewed as guidance or potential signposts for drafting legislation,” he said. “But, at the end of the day, my goal is to produce a bill that can get through this committee.”

The Big Six negotiators have been working for months behind closed doors trying to get the House, Senate and White House on the same page regarding the overall contours of any tax rewrite. They are racing to muscle legislation through Congress by the end of this year, before next year’s midterm elections begin to loom.

The group is comprised of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), Ryan, House Ways and Means Chairman Kevin Brady (R-Texas), Hatch, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and National Economic Council Director Gary Cohn.

CNBC.com: Here's how Trump and the Democrats could actually get tax reform done

• As tax reform heats up, the icy wall separating all cooperation between Trump and the Democrats is starting to show some cracks. • This began with Trump realizing he needed Democrats to ensure speedy hurricane relief and Democrats starting to realize they have to prove they're interested in governing again.

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• At least three Democrats in the Senate could easily back Trump's tax reform plan, and more could follow.

President Donald Trump is offering Congress a bipartisan path to some kind of a tax reform deal, and there are actually some signs the offer isn't dead on arrival.

The set up to this deal in the making are the last eight months of historic rancor in Washington between the Democrats and the president, Republicans and the president, and the usual sniping between Democrats and Republicans.

The result is precious little has been accomplished. The White House and the Republicans have the confirmation of Neil Gorsuch to the Supreme Court to crow about, and they can continue to at least try to take credit for the stock market rally and three percent GDP growth, but that's about it.

The Democrats have helped stoke the anti-Trump fires for all they're worth, with the assembling of the Robert Mueller team to investigate the administration a key victory. But casting a cloud over this president is hardly a legislative accomplishment, and it may not yield much more than continuing to depress Trump's poll numbers.

Meanwhile, the failure to pass an Obamacare repeal and replacement bill has mostly hurt the Republicans, but it will hurt all of Washington unless something can be done to stave off a wave of massively higher insurance premiums and disappearing coverage options.

"That act of God just came in the form of two massive hurricanes that have seemed to snap most of Washington's warring parties out of their mutually destructive trench warfare."

For just about all of this year so far, the D.C. dysfunction has been so bad that it seemed like only an act of God could turn things around.

That act of God just came in the form of two massive hurricanes that have seemed to snap most of Washington's warring parties out of their mutually destructive trench warfare.

President Trump got the ball rolling by making a debt ceiling deal with Democratic congressional leaders to make sure any efforts to aid the victims of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma would not be held up on Capitol Hill. The deal was seen by some critics as the White House betraying the GOP congressional leaders, but House Speaker Paul Ryan and Senate

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Majority Leader Mitch McConnell reluctantly went along as they likely saw the extreme political peril of even appearing to stand in the way of disaster aid.

And that brings us to tax reform.

Even as Hurricane Harvey had already flooded much of Houston and Hurricane Irma was taking aim at Florida, one Democrat was starting to make another breach in icy Washington wall. That Democrat is Senator Heidi Heitkamp, who joined President Trump last week on his trip to her state of North Dakota to push for tax reform. Heitkamp is one of a handful of Senate Democrats in states that voted for Trump last year who are up for re-election. And senators like her are a natural place for the White House to start.

President Trump continued down that road by inviting Democratic Senators Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Joe Donnelly of Indiana to a bipartisan White House dinner on tax reform Tuesday night that Republican Senators John Thune, Orrin Hatch, and Pat Toomey also attended. These are the first signs of actual progress in the quest to get something passed without the GOP being forced to resort toreconciliation or eliminating the filibuster rule.

There may be even more signs of deal making returning to D.C. Though Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer blasted President Trump's proposal to repeal estate taxes in a letter signed by every Democrat senator except for Donnelly, Heitkamp and Manchin, by focusing on just one aspect of the reform plan it could also mean the Democrats are actually starting the counteroffer process.

Perhaps they'll go for other parts of the plan if the White House scraps the estate tax part. It's not the stuff of a Nobel Peace Prize, but it's also a far cry from shouts of "Not my president!"

For now, what President Trump seems to be offering Democrats is a legitimate seat at the tax reform crafting table. That's significant since the White House and the GOP leadership could theoretically go it alone if they can get their post-Obamacare repeal failure act together.

News that Schumer and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi will be attending another bipartisan dinner at the White House Wednesday night to discuss immigration, Obamacare, and other issues possibly including tax reform may be even more promising. That's because Democrats could be showing signs of realizing that just bashing Trump won't do them much good as they try to win back those who voted for him in 2016.

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Couple these moves with the proposal crafted by Senator Bernie Sanders Wednesday calling for single-payer health care or "Medicare for all," and we're starting to see signs of a Democratic Party that realizes it must prove it is interested in governing again.

Before the hurricanes and the Heitkamp news, you could count me among those who doubted tax reform of any kind was going to happen. But now that President Trump may not have to rely solely on the meager deal making efforts of Republican leaders like McConnell, the odds have improved.

It appears that President Trump truly wants to give the Democrats some kind of seat at the governing table when it comes to tax reform, and based on his statements last week on DACA, he seems to feel the same about his signature issue of immigration as well.

This is a bipartisan gift President Trump is handing the Democrats at a time when leaders of his own Republican Party are flailing. And this time, it's a gift that the Democrats just might be smart enough to take.

The National Interest: Trump's September Budget Deal Could Move Tax Reform

LEAD: Republican leaders should seize the opportunity to work with Trump to enact pro-growth, fiscally responsible tax reform.

This week’s budget deal is fiscally irresponsible. But it just may have cleared the legislative schedule for serious action on much-needed tax reform.

The lamentable budget deal suspends the debt limit—and continues all discretionary spending at current (FY 2017) levels—through December 8. This allows lawmakers to delay making politically difficult spending decisions on defense and all other “nonmandatory” programs for another three months.

The sweetener in the deal was a provision to provide $15 billion in immediate relief to help states cope with the devastation caused by hurricanes and other disasters this year. It was a politically opportunistic move, but it only buys Congress a little bit of time.

Three months from now, Congress and the administration will once again face a funding deadline—one that, if unmet, may force a partial government shutdown.

While both the continuing resolution and the debt-limit suspension expire on December 8, only the former absolutely requires congressional action. The Treasury Secretary can employ a variety of so-called “extraordinary measures” that can buy Congress additional time—probably NATIONAL POLLING MEMO 23 Baselice and Associates | National Research Inc | the polling company, inc./Woman Trend

until next spring—before the new debt limit will restrict the Treasury’s borrowing authority. Unfortunately, by then Washington will have rung up nearly $1 trillion more in debt.

This week’s budget deal was negotiated between the president and Democratic leaders, and that scenario may well be repeated in December. Appropriating funds for defense and nondefense discretionary programs requires a sixty-vote majority in the Senate. Given the likely contours of such a package, fiscally conservative Republicans can be expected to balk at that package, which means Trump will have to win Democratic support to get the deal through.

President Trump had asked for a $54 billion increase in defense spending for fiscal year 2018. Getting that done will mean revising the Budget Control Act spending limits again. There is a real risk that the president may abandon his earlier call to offset defense-spending increases with cuts to domestic programs in order to bring Democrats on board. We saw this scenario play out twice already: last May and again this September.

That call was fiscally responsible. It challenged lawmakers to reprioritize federal spending so that it could channel more resources toward a core constitutional function of the federal government. But standing firm on that principle all but guarantees monolithic opposition from Democratic senators, bringing about a partial government shutdown. The administration’s appetite for such an impasse can’t be known this far in advance, but given recent history, it appears to be a rather unlikely outcome.

But there is hope for fiscal conservatives. In kicking the can again on spending and debt issues, lawmakers freed up legislative time, which they can put to good use by taking up pro-growth tax reform proposals. It also puts additional pressure on Republicans to get cracking on tax reform—a top priority for Trump—lest the president should decide to turn to the other side of the aisle for help on that issue, as well.

Fiscally responsible, pro-growth, tax reform will provide both tax and spending relief. To get there, lawmakers will need to adopt appropriate revenue and outlay baselines that allow for reconciliation.

At a minimum, the revenue baseline should be lowered to reflect current policy and to make room for the repeal of Obamacare’s harmful tax increases. That would mean about a $1.5 trillion reduction in projected revenues—$1 trillion from Obamacare taxes and about $500 billion from expiring tax provisions.

To facilitate the kind of tax changes discussed by President Trump and proposed by House Speaker Paul Ryan and Ways and Means Committee Chairman Kevin Brady, the revenue

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baseline would need to accommodate about twice that much. Congress could cut spending by $3 trillion or more through a combination of targeted spending cuts that right-size the federal government and a mandatory spending limit with built-in enforcement. A limit—with enforcement—would encourage much needed discussion about the size and scope of federal entitlement programs, the major drivers of national debt.

The Budget Control Act of 2011 reduced federal spending by $1.2 trillion, almost exclusively through cuts to defense and other discretionary spending programs, which make up only one- third of the budget.

Budget plans introduced in the House of Representatives proposed cutting spending by more than $5 trillion to balance. Reducing federal spending by $3 trillion over the next ten years is quite feasible and reasonable. What’s more, it is necessary.

President Trump bypassed Republicans on this budget deal. Republican leaders should seize the moment, now, to work with the president to enact pro-growth, fiscally responsible tax reform.

RealClear Politics: Trump Flashes Independent Streak in Pursuit of Deal

WASHINGTON (AP) -- President Donald Trump was in the mood to celebrate after cutting a big deal with opposition Democrats.

Joshing with Northeastern officials in the Cabinet Room, Trump hailed New York Democrat Andrew Cuomo as "my governor" and traded banter with Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer, another fellow New Yorker.

"If you just dropped in from outer space, you wouldn't know what the last eight months have been like," said Rep. Peter King, R-N.Y., recalling the friendly exchanges between Trump and Schumer during the meeting with New York and New Jersey lawmakers.

That would be the same Schumer whom the president had previously slammed as a "clown" and "Cryin' Chuck."

And now?

"In some ways it's almost like they were completing each other's sentences," King said.

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On display at that chummy scene Thursday was the Trump who's emerged in full this past week: Trump the independent.

A president who spent months catering to the Republican conservative wing now appears unbound by ideology and untethered by party allegiances.

It's not a complete surprise to his fellow Republicans. They long have worried that Trump, a former Democrat, might shift with the political winds. But Trump's overtures to Democrats have left Republicans in an awkward and perplexing position, undercut by their leader and unsure of what's next.

"Our grass roots are very confused," said Rep. Mark Meadows, R-N.C., head of the conservative House Freedom Caucus, on MSNBC Friday. Meadows said he viewed the deal as a "unique situation because of the devastation in Texas."

Trump's deal with Democrats to raise the U.S. borrowing limit and keep the government running for three month months - all in the name of speeding relief to hurricane victims - quickly passed Congress and gave him the opportunity to savor a victory after months of legislative setbacks.

He's now talking about possible future deals with Democrats - doing away with votes on the raising the debt cap, and shielding from deportation young immigrants living in the United States illegally who were brought here as children.

"I think that's what the people of the United States want to see," Trump said. "They want to see some dialogue."

It's unclear how much of Trump's turnabout is a deliberate strategy to create space for his tax overhaul this fall or simply a deal-maker's gut decision, bargained during an Oval Office session that left his fellow Republicans befuddled.

Trump has been frustrated by GOP leaders and blames House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis., and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., for his inability to score big triumphs in Congress. He's appeared unconcerned about dismissing their opposition to the debt ceiling deal, focusing instead on the fact that the move has delivered him rare kudos with some television commentators.

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Trump sprinkled salt on the wound Friday by reminding GOP leaders via Twitter about their failed efforts to overhaul former President Barack Obama's health law: "Republicans, sorry, but I've been hearing about Repeal & Replace for 7 years, didn't happen!"

In venting about Republican congressional leaders, Trump may just be channeling his supporters. Trump, who essentially hijacked the party two years ago, has positioned himself as the voice of voters who feel alienated from Washington and disdain both parties.

"The Republicans in the Senate did not follow through on their commitment in working with the administration to repeal Obamacare. So what's he going to do?" asked Tony Perkins, the president of the Family Research Council.

Perkins said he didn't think Trump's most loyal supporters would approve of extended dealings with Schumer and House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi of California. But, he added, "They're just as mad at the Republican leadership as they are the Democrats."

Still, Trump's startling agreement on the debt left Republicans wondering how far he's willing to stray from party orthodoxy in pursuit of a deal.

Their frustrations spilled out during a closed-door meeting Friday with Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin and White House budget chief Mick Mulvaney, a former South Carolina congressman, who were sent to Capitol Hill to defend the deal. At one point Mnuchin, a former Goldman Sachs executive and Democratic donor, drew hisses when he asked House Republicans to "vote for the debt ceiling for me," according to Rep. Mark Walker, R-N.C.

From the start of his presidency, Trump has repeatedly labeled Democrats as obstructionists, and few expect his budding alliance with Schumer and Pelosi to be long-lived. Trump is loathed by the Democratic base, many of whom talk more openly about impeachment than cooperation.

But there's little doubt that Trump's talk of "dealmaking" may occasionally open up possibilities for Democrats.

"I think the president, when it comes to making deals, is an enigma," said Rep. Steve King, R- Iowa.

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King said he will continue to work with Trump, but acknowledged that the past week had been a "little unsettling" and noted that "conservative allies have been leaving the West Wing at a fairly regular pace."

One of the top aides King was referring to was Steve Bannon. The strategist was ousted in August but remains a vocal proponent of the president's agenda.

Trump announced the deal with Democrats while Bannon was sitting for an interview with CBS News, but the Breitbart executive chairman saved his most pointed remarks for McConnell and Ryan, accusing them of trying to "nullify" the results of the 2016 election.

The headlines on the Breitbart website Friday reflected the anti-establishment wing's distrust of some of Trump's New York allies, as well as party leadership - but not of Trump himself.

Other Republicans are willing to give Trump a pass, for now. "Of course I view him as a Republican," said Rep. Darrell Issa, R-Calif. He said that when Republicans can't solve a problem by themselves, "then the president has that obligation to be that neutral arbitrator."

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Russia

By the Numbers:

Do you consider Russia to be a friend or an enemy of the United States? The Economist/YouGov, September 10-12, 2017, n=1500 US Adults Total Friendly 18% Total Unfriendly 60% Ally 4% Friendly 14% Unfriendly 34% Enemy 26% Not sure 21%

Do you think Donald Trump considers Russia to be a friend or an enemy of the United States? The Economist/YouGov, September 10-12, 2017, n=1500 US Adults Total Friendly 43% Total Unfriendly 35% Ally 14% Friendly 29% Unfriendly 21% Enemy 14% Not sure 23%

CNN: Russia proposed full normalization with US under Trump, Kremlin says

Russia offered a plan to the United States for a full and immediate move toward normalization - - or a restoration of diplomatic ties -- in the opening weeks of President Donald Trump's administration, the Kremlin confirmed Wednesday.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Wednesday that "of course" Russia floated proposals such as this one to the US.

"Moscow systematically advocated for a resumption of the dialogue, for an exchange of opinion and for attempts at finding joint solutions," Peskov said. "But, unfortunately, it saw no reciprocity." NATIONAL POLLING MEMO 29 Baselice and Associates | National Research Inc | the polling company, inc./Woman Trend

Peskov said Russia's proposals had come through in parts and a summary of the offer went through diplomatic channels.

News of the plan first came to light in a BuzzFeed News report after the outlet obtained a document which outlined the proposal a top Russian diplomat made directly to the US State Department.

Asked about the report, State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert would neither confirm nor deny its accuracy. Nauert said in general terms that the US and Russia share the goal of improving diplomatic relations between the countries.

A Russian official confirmed to CNN that the document was authentic.

"We are sorry to hear that documents keep leaking from the (Trump) administration, though it shows that Russia keeps doing its best to normalize relations," the official said.

Earlier Tuesday, Under Secretary of State Tom Shannon met with his Russian counterpart in Finland. The meeting was their third of the year to discuss so-called "irritants" in the relationship. Nauert said the meeting provided an opportunity to "raise questions or concerns," but did not say if the two had resolved anything.

The proposal, BuzzFeed wrote, called for the US to restore all channels -- diplomatic, military and intelligence -- that had been cut following Russia's invasion of Ukraine and intervention in Syria.

In the coming months, the proposal called for Russia and the US to collaborate on information security, Afghanistan, Iran, Ukraine, North Korea and eventually a full face-to-face meeting between the top national security officials of the two nations.

Relations between the United States and Russia have soured considerably since the opening of the Trump administration, when many expected Trump might bring the nations closer together as he said repeatedly was his goal during the campaign.

Russian military involvement in Ukraine and Syria, as well as the US intelligence community's conclusion that Russian President Vladimir Putin personally ordered an attempt to meddle in the 2016 US presidential election, has cast a shadow on the US side over the potential rapprochement.

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The US under then-President Barack Obama increased sanctions on Russia following the country's alleged election interference, and moved to shutter some of the Kremlin's facilities in the US.

Trump met with Putin face-to-face in a scheduled meeting at the G20 summit in July then spoke again during an unannounced conversation at a dinner for world leaders during the summit. Trump went on to propose a joint US-Russia cyber effort, then after sustained criticism of the proposal, Trump said he knew "it can't" happen.

Russia responded in kind to the US' sanctions after several months delay and ordered large cutsin the US diplomatic staff in Russia. Around the same time, Trump signed a bill putting more sanctions on Russia and restricting his ability to lift them.

He also thanked Putin for forcing the US to reduce its diplomatic staff in a comment the White House later described as sarcastic. Before Moscow's deadline for the US to reduce its diplomatic staff in Russia, the US ordered the closure of three Russian facilities in the US.

Politico: A Russian military opportunity: Belarus emphasis on making the exercise transparent gives Western observers a glimpse at Moscow’s capabilities.

CAMBRIDGE, England — The Zapad military exercise, to be held jointly by Russia and Belarus this week, has spawned alarming predictions of covert Russian aggression against its Baltic neighbors, and even Belarus itself.

But Zapad is like Christmas: It comes around at a predictable time, yet the excitement and the long build-up obscure the original meaning of the event.

Zapad is a routine, scheduled exercise. It’s receiving even more attention than usual this year only because Russia is seen to pose a greater threat to European security. The seizure of Crimea and offensive actions against Ukraine are still fresh in our minds.

It is true that previous Russian exercises on this scale left troops in a position to undertake military operations immediately afterward, against Georgia in 2008 and against Ukraine in 2014.

Some in the Baltics have expressed concern the same could happen to them. But not every major Russian exercise ends with the invasion of a neighbor.

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Both of those moves were precipitated by an immediate political crisis. From Russia’s point of view, what was happening in Georgia and Ukraine posed an immediate security threat.

While Western observers should welcome this openness by Belarus, the enhanced visibility in the country could also distract from Zapad’s most significant developments.

There is no such crisis currently along Russia’s northwestern periphery. If anything, the likelihood Russia will launch any kind of unfriendly action off the back of Zapad is lower than it was in 2013.

At the time, before the threat of Russian military adventurism against its Western neighbors was so generally recognized, there was no established NATO ground presence in the Baltic states.

NBS News: Mike Flynn’s Son Is Subject of Federal Russia Probe

WASHINGTON — Michael G. Flynn, the son of President Donald Trump's former national security adviser, is a subject of the federal investigation into Russian meddling in the presidential election and possible collusion between Moscow and the Trump campaign, according to four current and former government officials.

The inquiry into Flynn is focused at least in part on his work with his father's lobbying firm, Flynn Intel Group, three of the officials said. It's unclear when the focus on Flynn began.

Barry Coburn, who said he is serving as the younger Flynn's legal counsel, said he couldn't comment on the matter.

Flynn's status as a subject of the Russia investigation widens the publicly known scope of the probe. NBC News has reported that those under investigation have included the elder Flynn and former Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort. Others under scrutiny by special counsel Robert Mueller include Carter Page, a Trump campaign ally; Jared Kushner, the president's son- in-law and senior White House adviser; and the president's son, Donald Trump Jr.

Trump Jr. may be called to appear before the Senate Judiciary committee sometime this fall. He, Kushner, Manafort and Page have all denied any collusion with Russia during the campaign.

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Ty Cobb, an attorney for President Trump, said that the younger Flynn's status as a subject of the probe "does not impact the White House to any extent with regard to its continuing cooperation with the special counsel."

The elder Flynn's lawyer, Robert Kelner, declined to comment Tuesday when asked how his client responds to allegations of collusion with Russia. On Twitter, Michael G. Flynn appeared to call the report that he is a subject of the Russia probe a "#Nothingburger": "#FakeNews Media: 'We're done covering those "pesky hurricanes' right????...Back to Russia!' #Nothingburger."

The president also has come under scrutiny for possible obstruction of justice and has denied colluding with Russia.

Business Insider: Hillary Clinton accuses Trump associates of helping Russia influence the 2016 election

Hillary Clinton has made crystal clear whom she blames for Russia's interference in the 2016 US presidential election.

In an interview with USA Todaypublished Monday night, Clinton said she thought associates of Donald Trump had an "understanding" that Russian President Vladimir Putin wanted her to lose and Trump to win.

"There certainly was communication, and there certainly was an understanding of some sort," Clinton said.

"And there's no doubt in my mind that there are a tangle of financial relationships between Trump and his operation with Russian money," Clinton said, adding that she was confident the Trump campaign "worked really hard to hide their connections with Russians."

Clinton's remarks echo those of congressional investigators who have pointed to some top-level officials within Trump's inner circle accused of misrepresenting their contacts with Russian diplomats and insiders tied to the Kremlin during and after the 2016 campaign.

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