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Asian Development Outlook 2020

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Asian Development Outlook 2020 Asian Development Outlook What Drives Innovation in Asia? After a disappointing , growth prospects in developing Asia have worsened under the impact of the current health crisis. Signs of incipient recovery near the turn of this year were quickly overthrown as COVID- broke out in January in the region’s largest economy and subsequently expanded into a global pandemic. Disruption to regional and global supply chains, trade, and tourism, and the continued spread of the outbreak, leave the region reeling under massive economic shocks and fi nancial turmoil. Across Asia, the authorities are responding with policies to contain the outbreak, facilitate medical interventions, and support vulnerable businesses and households. Assuming that the outbreak is contained this year, growth is expected to recover in . Especially to face down fundamental threats such as the current medical emergency, innovation is critical to growth and development. As some economies in developing Asia challenge the innovation frontier, many others lag. More and better innovation is needed in the region to sustain growth that is more inclusive and environmentally sustainable. Five key drivers of innovation are sound education, productive entrepreneurship, high-quality institutions, e cient fi nancial systems, and dynamic cities that excite knowledge exchange. The journey to creating an innovative society takes long-term commitment and hard work. About the Asian Development Bank ADB is committed to achieving a prosperous inclusive resilient and sustainable Asia and the Pacifi c while sustaining its e orts to eradicate extreme poverty Established in it is owned by members — from the region Its main instruments for helping its developing member countries are policy dialogue loans equity investments guarantees grants and technical assistance ASIAN DEVELOPMENT OUTLOOK WHAT DRIVES INNOVATION IN ASIA? Special Topic: The Impact of the Coronavirus Outbreak—An Update APRIL ISBN 978-92-9262-039-4 ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City Metro Manila, Philippines ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK www.adb.org ASIAN DEVELOPMENT OUTLOOK WHAT DRIVES INNOVATION IN ASIA? Special Topic: The Impact of the Coronavirus Outbreak—An Update APRIL ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK Creative Commons Attribution . IGO license (CC BY . IGO) © Asian Development Bank ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City, Metro Manila, Philippines Tel ; Fax www.adb.org Some rights reserved. Published in . ISBN -- -- (print); -- - - (electronic); -- -- (e-book) ISSN - (print), -X (electronic) Publication Stock No. FLS- http://dx.doi.org/. /FLS- The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of their use. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by ADB in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area, or by using the term “country” in this document, ADB does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area. This work is available under the Creative Commons Attribution . IGO license (CC BY . IGO) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/./igo/. By using the content of this publication, you agree to be bound by the terms of this license. For attribution, translations, adaptations, and permissions, please read the provisions and terms of use at https://www.adb.org/terms-use¢openaccess. This CC license does not apply to non-ADB copyright materials in this publication. If the material is attributed to another source, please contact the copyright owner or publisher of that source for permission to reproduce it. ADB cannot be held liable for any claims that arise as a result of your use of the material. Please contact [email protected] if you have questions or comments with respect to content, or if you wish to obtain copyright permission for your intended use that does not fall within these terms, or for permission to use the ADB logo. Corrigenda to ADB publications may be found at http://www.adb.org/publications/corrigenda. Notes: In this publication, “¤” refers to US dollars. ADB recognizes “Hong Kong” as Hong Kong, China; “China” as the People’s Republic of China; “Korea” and “South Korea” as the Republic of Korea; and “Vietnam” as Viet Nam. Cover design by Anthony Victoria. Cover artwork by Atsuko Yamagata/. Contents Foreword Acknowledgments Definitions and assumptions Abbreviations ADO 2020—Highlights Part Asia reels from the COVID- outbreak After a difficult 2019, challenges mount The impact of COVID-19 on developing Asia—An update Annex: Tumbling global growth in the time of COVID-19 Part What drives innovation in Asia? Innovating for inclusive and sustainable growth Landscape of innovation in Asia Fostering innovators and a culture of innovation Conducive institutions and environment for innovators Toward a more innovative Asia Part Economic trends and prospects in developing Asia Central Asia Armenia Azerbaijan Georgia Kazakhstan Kyrgyz Republic Tajikistan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan East Asia Hong Kong, China Mongolia People’s Republic of China Republic of Korea Taipei,China South Asia Afghanistan Bangladesh Bhutan India Maldives Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka Southeast Asia Brunei Darussalam Cambodia Indonesia Lao People’s Democratic Republic Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand Timor-Leste Viet Nam The Pacific Fiji Papua New Guinea Solomon Islands Vanuatu Central Pacific economies North Pacific economies South Pacific economies Statistical appendix Foreword We face extraordinarily challenging times. The outbreak of coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) is disrupting people’s lives and interrupting business and other economic activities around the world. Developing Asia will weaken tremendously due to the pandemic, considering the region’s deep integration with the global economy through tourism, trade, and remittances. Plummeting commodity prices are also placing a severe burden on some countries. As the disease spreads and strict measures are imposed to contain it, rapidly undermining domestic demand and the external environment, we forecast regional growth declining from 5.2% last year to 2.2% in 2020. Growth will rebound to 6.2% in 2021, assuming that the pandemic ends this year and activity promptly normalizes. Excluding Asia’s high-income newly industrialized economies—Hong Kong, China; the Republic of Korea; Singapore; and Taipei,China—growth will drop from 5.7% to 2.4% this year before recovering to 6.7% next year. Growth could underperform these already lowered forecasts, as the pandemic poses downside risks. Outbreaks could worsen in more countries, and containing them could take longer than currently projected. Our research sees global losses from COVID-19 ranging from $2.0 trillion to $4.1 trillion, equal to 2.3%–4.8% of global GDP. It should be noted that the estimate does not take into account such factors as supply disruptions, interrupted remittances, urgent health-care costs, and potential financial disruptions, as well as long-term effects on education and the economy. To mitigate these losses, effective response requires decisiveness, agility, coordination, and vigilance from policy makers and institutions throughout the region and around the world. The Asian Development Bank has been supporting our clients, both governments and the private sector, from the early stages of the crisis and stands ready to provide further support in collaboration with other international organizations such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. In the midst of such unprecedented economic disruption, innovative thinking is vital to overcome the current difficulties and rebound quickly. The ability to think up new solutions is necessary to restore developing Asia to its impressive growth path over the past decade. With this in mind, our theme chapter discusses the strong progress Asia has already made in fostering innovation. It argues for even greater efforts to advance the region’s transformation from middle income to high income, while achieving more inclusive and sustainable growth. It highlights and explicates the crucial roles of sound education, innovative entrepreneurship, strong institutions, well-developed financial markets, and dynamic cities in fostering innovation. I sincerely hope that Asian Development Outlook 2020, with its near-term economic perspective and medium- to long-term policy recommendations, will be useful for policy makers in Asia and the Pacific toward developing economic and social policies to overcome the crisis, and to make each country even more resilient, innovative, and inclusive. MASATSUGU ASAKAWA President Asian Development Bank Acknowledgments Asian Development Outlook 2020 was prepared by staff of Asian Development Bank (ADB) regional departments and resident missions under the guidance of the Economic Research and Regional Cooperation Department (ERCD). Representatives of these departments met regularly as the Regional Economic Outlook Task Force to coordinate and develop consistent forecasts for the region. Economists in ERCD, led by Abdul Abiad, director of the Macroeconomics Research Division, coordinated the production of the publication,
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