STRENGTHENING COOPERATION IN ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN TRANSBOUNDARY BASINS OF THE CHU AND TALAS RIVERS KAZAKHSTAN AND KYRGYZSTAN Summary Strengthening Cooperation in Adaptation to Climate Change in Transboundary Basins of the Chu and Talas Rivers, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan

Summary

© Zoї Environment Network, 2014

Summary of the full report on the “Strengthening Cooperation in Adaptation to Climate Change in Transboundary Basins of the Chu and Talas Rivers (Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan)” was prepared by Zoї Environment Network in close cooperation with the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) Water Convention Secretariat and the authors of the full report and experts of Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan in the framework of the Environment and Security Initiative (ENVSEC ). Financial This publication may be reproduced in whole or in part in any form Authors of the full report: Svetlana Dolgikh, Auelbek Zaurbek, support was provided by the Government of Finland. for educational or non-profit purposes without special permission Alexsandr Kalashnikov (Kazakhstan), Shamil Iliasov, Nurdudin from the copyright holders, provided acknowledgement of the Karabaev, Ekaterina Sahvaeva, Gulmira Satymkulova, Valerii source is made. UNECE and partners would appreciate­ receiving a Shevchenko (Kyrgyzstan) copy of any material that uses this publication as a source. No use of this publication may be made for resale or for any commercial Original text of summary: Lesya Nikolayeva with the participation purpose whatsoever without prior permission in written form from of Viktor Novikov, Nickolai Denisov (Zoї Environment Network) the copyright holders. The use of information from this publication concerning proprietary products for advertising is not permitted. Russian editing: Marina Pronina

The views expressed in this document are those of the authors Translation into English: Elena Arkhipova and do not necessarily reflect views of the partner organizations and governments. English editing: Geoff Hughes

The designations employed and the presentation of the material in Maps and graphics: Lesya Nikolayeva, Carolyne Daniel, Mattias this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion what- Beilstein (Zoї Environment Network) soever concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning delimitation of its frontiers Design and layout: Carolyne Daniel, Maria Libert or boundaries. Mention of a commercial company or product does not imply endorsement­ by the cooperating partners. We regret any Photos: Viktor Novikov errors or omissions that may unwillingly have been made. Valuable comments and recommendations have been provid- ed by: Annukka Lipponen, Sonja Koeppel (UNECE), Indira Akbo- zova (Kazakhstan), Tilek ­Isabekov, Erkin Orolbaev (Kyrgyzstan)

2 3 CONTENTS INTRODUCTION 07

GENERAL DESCRIPTION OF THE CHU AND TALAS RIVER BASINS 11

USE AND PROTECTION OF WATER RESOURCES IN THE CHU AND 17 TALAS RIVER BASINS CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACT 23

RECOMMENDATIONS AND SUGGESTIONS REGARDING CLIMATE CHANGE 35 ADAPTATION MEASURES

4 5 INTRODUCTION

Climate change, once only a topic of scientific de- bate, has become in recent years an issue requiring the development and implementation of practical actions. Central Asia, due to ongoing global climate change, expects an increasing freshwater deficit and adverse changes in the flows of major rivers; there- fore, there is an urgent need to study the impact of climate change on water resources in the region.

Most of the water flows in Central Asia, as well as almost all water resources in the region, are formed in the mountains, mainly due to melting of seasonal snow cover and glaciers. Changes in snow and ice cover in the upper basin resulting from global warm- ing can significantly affect the hydrological regime and water resources of Central Asia with dramatic consequences for the water supply serving the pop- ulation and economy of the region.

Surface water in Central Asia is a vital resource, and is particularly sensitive to climate change. The Chu River (in Kazakhstan it is called the Shu) and the ­Talas River flow through Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. These rivers support the livelihoods of more than 3 million people in the two republics, and are the major sources of water used in agriculture.

Ala-Archa Natural Park, the Chu River basin

7 u K is a ar r S at ol Karaqoyyn Koli Lake The interests of the two countries in the sharing of The key project objectives include: Balkhash these rivers calls for cooperation – a common ap- proach to management, a rational use of water re- • Simulation of possible changes in the basins of sources and in the face of future climate change, the the Chu and Talas Rivers associated with climatic development of joint actions on adaptation. conditions, and development of proposals for joint action The project, “Strengthening cooperation on adapta- • Preparation of a joint report on the possible im- KAZAKHSTAN Ili tion to climate change in transboundary basins of the pacts of climate change in the region, with special Ashchykol Chu and Talas Rivers”, has made an attempt to com- attention directed to water use in agriculture, as a Akzhaykyn Koli Chu rti Ku bine two areas that were previously unrelated – the major water consumer in the river basins Kokuidynkol Muyunkum Kapchagay Res. joint management of transboundary water resources • Development of a set of possible adaptation mea- Kapchagay and the development of recommendations on adap- sures to help alleviate potential tensions caused Muyunkum tation to climate change. Experts involved in the proj- by changes in the water regime. Desert ect have examined the impact of climate change on Tole Bi Almaty Zhanakorgan the situation in the basins of the Chu and Talas Riv- These adaptation measures could be applied as nec- Shu Janatas ers, and have focused primarily on agriculture, which essary. The final part of this report lists some types Ta la rty s gha Korday depends on the availability of water resources. of possible practical actions, which, however, need Elevation Kentau Aqkol ura Q Chu further elaboration, based on the priorities and re- in metres Qaratau Bishkek Turkestan The project has been implemented in the framework sources of both countries. S Bilikol Taraz Tokmok Kemin yr 3 000 Da K Merki Kara-Balta Balykchy ry y of the Environment and Security Initiative (ENVSEC, a r Issyk Kul Baurzhan g y z n g e www.envsec.org) with support from the Government The project partners are the United Nations Develop- 2 000 Momyshuly R a A ry Kochkor of Finland and the European Union (in the early stag- ment Programme (UNDP), United Nations Economic 1 500 s Kyzyl-Adyr Talas es of the project). It is intended to expand the op- Commission for Europe (UNECE), the Organization 1 000 Arys Shymkent KYRGYZSTAN portunities of Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan in the field for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), the 500 of adaptation to climate change and to facilitate di- Department of Water Resources and Irrigation with Toktogul Reservoir Toktogul Song-Kol alogue and cooperation between the two countries the Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation of 200 Naryn in the development of transboundary strategies for the Kyrgyz Republic, the Ministry of Environment and Qazyghurt Naryn adaptation, thereby preventing disagreements in the Water Resources of the Republic of Kazakhstan and 0 50 km Chirchiq use of water resources. the Secretariat of the Commission of the Republic of Map produced by ZOÏ Environment Network, August 2013 UZBEKISTAN Kazakhstan and the Kyrgyz Republic on the use of the interstate water facilities on the Chu and Talas Geography of the Chu and Talas River basins Rivers. Basin borders

National borders

8 9 GENERAL DESCRIPTION OF THE CHU AND TALAS RIVER BASINS

The basins of the Chu and Talas Rivers are located in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. The rivers originate on the slopes of the Kyrgyz Range in Kyrgyzstan, then flow through the Turan Lowlands in Kazakhstan (the Chu River flows through the Chuy Valley) and disap- pear in the Muyunkum Desert.

Vegetation and soils in the basin are noted for wide diversity: landscapes of deserts and semi-deserts typical of the plains and intermountain valleys are replaced at higher altitudes by steppe, meadow and forest complexes, subalpine and alpine meadows and grasslands. Mixed grass swards, rich in differ- ent vegetation types, are characteristic of meadow steppes where the soil structure provides for rap- id absorption of moisture, so short-term run-off is formed only during high intensity rainfalls. The total forest cover in the lower reaches, floodplains and deltas of the Chu and Talas Rivers is 6.2 per cent (the average for Kazakhstan is 3.8 per cent). The desert and semi-desert soils located on the flat part of the basin lack a solid structure, are very poor in humus and have high permeability, but precipitation does not penetrate below the surface, and the permanent non-recharging water regime eliminates the possibil- ity for the formation of subsurface flow.

Orto-Tokoyskoye Reservoir, the Chu River, Kyrgyzstan

11 u K is a ar Karagandy Oblast r S at ol Karaqoyyn Koli Lake The Chu and Talas River basins are marked by a va- The Talas River originates at the junction of the Kyr- Balkhash riety of forms of river network – permanent streams, gyz and Talas ranges, flows through Kazakhstan and drying rivers, dry riverbeds of alluvial plains, artificial disappears in the sands of the Muyunkum. The total water bodies (irrigation canals), ponds, reservoirs area of the basin is 53 000 square kilometres, 78 per and outflows of groundwater and return water. In the cent of which is in Kazakhstan and 22 per cent in Kyr- Almaty Oblast Chu basin there are over 5 000 small rivers and about gyzstan. The main tributaries are the Urmaral, Kara 500 lakes, and in the Talas basin there are more than Buura, Kumushtak, Kalba and Besh-Tash. The Talas KAZAKHSTAN Ili 3 500 rivers and about 1 500 lakes. River is formed by the confluence of the Karakol and Ashchykol Uchkosha rivers and flows in the direction of former Akzhaykyn Koli Chu rti Ku The Chu River, the main river in the north of Kyrgyz- Ucharalsky overflows where it divides into a number Kokuidynkol Muyunkum Kapchagay Res. stan, is formed by the confluence of the Kochkor and of branches, forming numerous lakes and wetlands Kapchagay Dzhuvanaryk Rivers. The total area of the Chu basin with reeds. On the flatlands the Talas River has no Jambyl Oblast is 68 000 square kilometres, with 57 per cent of this tributaries and is intensively used for irrigation, form- Kyzylorda Oblast area in Kyrgyzstan and 43 per cent in Kazakhstan. The ing a dense irrigation network; the remaining water Tole Bi Almaty Zhanakorgan main tributaries of the Chu include the Chon-­Kemin is lost to evaporation and infiltration. Along the lower Shu Almaty City Janatas and Kuragaty Rivers. On the flatlands the riverbed reaches of the river, within the Zhambyl oblast of Ka- Ta la rty s gha Korday divides into several branches: the Gulyaevskiye (Fur- zakhstan, there are estuaries covering 75 000 hect- Kentau Aqkol ura Q Chu manovskiye) floodwater, the Ulanbelskiye floodwater ares. Qaratau Bishkek Turkestan which accumulate winter run-off and the Kamkalins- S Bilikol Taraz Bishkek City Tokmok Kemin yr Da Merki Kara-Balta Balykchy kiye floodwater which accumulate spring run-off. Most of the mountain lakes are small waterbodies of ry Chu Oblast Issyk Kul a Baurzhan The river flows into the Aschicol and Akzhaykyn lake glacial and rock-dammed origin. The largest lakes Momyshuly Ar Talas Kochkor Issyk-Kul Oblast systems. The watershed divide between the basins are Bilikol and Akkol (the Assa River flows through ys Kyzyl-Adyr of the Chu River and Lake Issyk-Kul is vaguely ex- the latter); among the rock-dammed lakes are Kelu- South Kazakhstan Oblast Talas Oblast Arys Shymkent pressed, and even in the 1950s floodwaters flowed kok, Kelkogur and Keltor. A large group of salt lakes along the Kutemaldy branch from the river into the is located in the lower reaches of the Chu River; the Toktogul Reservoir Toktogul Song-Kol lake. Currently, the Chu basin in Kyrgyzstan has 17 largest of them is Lake Akzhaykyn with the area of KYRGYZSTAN Naryn reservoirs with capacity of more than 1 million cubic about 50 square kilometres. Qazyghurt Tashkent Naryn Jalal-Abad Oblast Naryn Oblast metres, and Kazakhstan has 14 reservoirs with a total 0 50 km Oblast capacity of more than 5 million cubic metres. Currently, the flow of the Chu and Talas Rivers is reg- Chirchiq Map produced by ZOÏ Environment Network, August 2013 UZBEKISTAN ulated in Kyrgyzstan by the Ortho-Tokoy and Kirov reservoirs. Administrative divisions of the Chu and Talas River basins

National borders Population density (inhabitants per km²) 1 5 50 Oblast borders

Talas Oblast capital

Basin borders

Source: LandScan Global Population Database 2007, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN (www.ornl.gov/sci/landscan)

12 13 u K Hydrography in the Chu and Talas River basins is a r ra a tol S Karaqoyyn Koli Lake Hydrological stations Balkhash Meteorological stations Reservoirs Water resources of the Chu and Talas Rivers

Water sampling The main water source for the rivers of the Chu and Talas River basins is seasonal snow melt, with rain- Canals water playing a secondary role. During low water KAZAKHSTAN Lakes periods, groundwater contributes to river recharge. Glaciers The river basins are flooded in warm seasons. Annual Ili Cropland average consumption of exploitable water resources in the upper part of the Chu River basin, taking into Ashchykol Marshland account sources of groundwater and return water, is Chu Akzhaykyn Koli Basin borders 179 cubic metres per second, and in the Talas River ti ur Kokuidynkol K National borders basin 56 cubic metres per second. Muyunkum Kapchagay Muyunkum Kapchagay Res. Both basins have groundwater discharges that are Annual precipitation formed in the lower part of the flow dispersion where Millimetres per year groundwater is close to the surface. The total con- 200 300 400 500 750 Desert tribution of the groundwater discharge to the water Aqzhar Koli Tole Bi Almaty balance is 41 cubic metres per second for the Chu Zhanakorgan Qyzylkol Shu River and about three cubic metres per second for T G 0 50 km a y e l t or the Talas River. a r gi Ashchykol s a yevs Janatas h kiy C g an Map produced by ZOÏ Environment Network, September 2013 Tuzkol ra Tasotkel . Qu Reservoir Source: WorldClim (www.worldclim.org) u K Hydrography in the Chu and Talas River basins Korday is Aqkol a It is very important that the calculation of exploitable r ra a Kentau tol S Karaqoyyn Koli At-Bashy Can. Chu water volume takes into account drainage water from Lake Qaratau Hydrological stations Spartak Res. Ala-Archa Res. Kemin ong Ch irrigated fields returning to the river network both over BalkhashTurkestan Great Chu Can. Meteorological stations Bishkek Tokmok Kemin Bilikol the surface and through recharging groundwater. The S Taraz Reservoirs Merki Kara-Balta yr A M Balykchy s K volume of return water is not constant and depends D s e a a rk Issyk Kul r Teris-Ashchybulak y i A y s a Water sampling r p g a a directly on the state of canals and irrigation systems, Reservoir t e Orto-Tokoy Res. y r l g Baurzhan a z n Kirov Reservoir a R a B Momyshuly Ta - Kyzyl-Adyr Canals las a the availability and condition of the drainage network r Ar a ys K Ea Great Talas Can. Talas st Sook Kochkor and the watering norms for the irrigated areas. Lakes Uch KAZAKHSTAN Koshoy Glaciers u Arys K Hydrography in the Chu and Talas River basins ujur is a Karak r ra I a tol li S Karaqoyyn Koli Shymkent KYRGYZSTANCropland Hydrological stations Lake Song-Kol Ashchykol Marshland u Balkhash K Hydrography in the Chu and Talas River basins is a r ra Meteorological stations Toktogul a u tol S Karaqoyyn Koli Ch Akzhaykyn Koli Basin borders Toktogul Reservoir Lake Hydrological stations Reservoirs ti ur Balkhash Kokuidynkol K National borders Meteorological stations Water sampling Naryn Muyunkum Naryn Qazyghurt Canals Kapchagay Muyunkum Reservoirs Kapchagay Res. u K Hydrography in the Chu and Talas River basins Annual precipitation is a r ra Water sampling Chirchiq Lakes a tol S Karaqoyyn Koli KAZAKHSTAN Millimetres per year Lake Hydrological stations Canals Glaciers 200 300 400 500 750 I Balkhash Desert li Aqzhar Koli Meteorological stations Tole Bi Lakes Cropland KAZAKHSTAN Almaty Ashchykol Reservoirs Glaciers Marshland Zhanakorgan Shu CQyzylkolhu Ili Akzhaykyn Koli T G 0 50 km a Water sampling y Croplande Basin borders l t or a r gi Ashchykol s a ti yevsk Janatas h r iy Ca Map produced by ZOÏ Environment Network, September 2013 Tuzkol g Tasotkel Ku n. Ashchykol Kokuidynkol Canals ra Marshland National borders Qu Reservoir 15 Korday Source: WorldClim (www.worldclim.org) Akzhaykyn Koli Chu MuyunkumAqkol Kentau Lakes Basin borders Kapchagay KAZAKHSTAN Bashy Can. C Muyunkum ti At- Kapchagay hu ur Ala-Archa Res.Res. emin Kokuidynkol Qaratau GlaciersK SpartakNational Res. borders ng K Annual precipitationCho Il t Chu Can. Turkestan i Grea Tokmok Muyunkum Cropland Bishkek Millimetres perKemin year Bilikol Kapchagay MuyunkumS Taraz KapchagayMerki Res. Kara-Balta 200 300 400 500 750 yr A M Balykchy Ashchykol D Desert s K Marshland e s a a rk Annual precipitation Issyk Kul Aqzhar Koli r Teris-Ashchybulak y i A y s Tole Bi r p Chu a Akzhaykyn Koli g a a Reservoir Millimetrest per year e Orto-Tokoy Res. y r l Almaty g Baurzhan Basin borders a z n Kirov Reservoir a R a B Momyshuly i Ta - Zhanakorgan rt Kyzyl-Adyr las a 200 300 400 500 750 u Shu r Qyzylkol Ar K a Kokuidynkol Desert ys National borders K Ea T Great Can. G Talas st Sook 0 50 km Aqzhar Koli a y Talas e Kochkor l Tole Bi t or U a r gi ch Ko Muyunkum Ashchykol s a yevsk shoy Janatas h iy C Almaty Map produced by ZOÏ Environment Network, September 2013 g Kapchagay an Tuzkol ra Tasotkel . Zhanakorgan Muyunkum Arys KapchagayQu ReservoirRes. Karakujur Qyzylkol Shu Source: WorldClim (www.worldclim.org) Aqkol Shymkent Annual precipitationKorday T G KYRGYZSTAN0 50 km Kentau a y e l t or a r gi ashy Can. C Ashchykol s a yevsk MillimetresAt-B per year h Janatas h iy Ca u Map produced byi nZOÏ Environment Network, September 2013 Song-Kol Tuzkol Qaratau g Tasotkel n. Spartak Res. Ala-Archa Res. Kem ra ong Qu Reservoir 200 300 400 Toktogul500 750 Ch Turkestan Korday Great Chu Can. Source: WorldClim (www.worldclim.org) Desert Aqkol Tokmok Kemin Aqzhar Koli Kentau Tole Bi BishkekToktogul Reservoir Bilikol At-BashyMerki Can. Ch S Taraz Almatyu Kara-Balta in y A r Qaratau Spartak Res. Ala-ArchaM Res. Kem Balykchy s K e g D s on Zhanakorgan a a rk h Issyk Kul Naryn A C Qyzylkol r Shu Teris-Ashchybulak y i y eat Chu Can. s Turkestan a Gr r p a N g a Tokmok aryn T Reservoir t 0 Kemin 50 km e Orto-Tokoy Res. G y r l g a y Baurzhan e Qazyghurt Bishkek a z n l t or Kirov Reservoir a R a a Bilikol r gi B Ashchykol s a Momyshuly yevsk Merki Ta - Janatas Tarazh iy CKyzyl-Adyr Kara-Balta las a S an r Map produced by ZOÏ Environment Network, September 2013 y A g r Tuzkol Ar a Tasotkel . M a Balykchy y s r K e K D s s u Chirchiq E a a Q rk ast So Issyk Kul Reservoir G A ok r Teris-Ashchybulak y reat Talas Cani . Talas Source: WorldClim (www.worldclim.org) Kochkor y Korday s U r p c a Aqkol h Kos g a a ho Reservoir t y e Orto-Tokoy Res. y r l g Kentau Baurzhan a z n Kirov Reservoir a R a ashy Can. C B Arys Momyshuly At-B Ta h - Kyzyl-Adyr las u a Karakujur Ala-Archa Res. r emin A Qaratau Spartak Res. a g K ry Shymkent K on s Gr . KYRGYZSTANCh East Sook Turkestan eat Talas Can reat Chu TalasCan. Kochkor G Uch Kos Tokmok Bishkek hoy Kemin Song-Kol Bilikol S Arys Taraz Merki Kara-Balta Toktogul Karakujur yr A M Balykchy D s Shymkent K e s a r KYRGYZSTANIssyk Kul a k r Teris-Ashchybulak y i A y s Toktogul Reservoir a r p g a a Reservoir t e Orto-Tokoy Res. y r l g Baurzhan a z n Song-Kol Kirov Reservoir a R a B Momyshuly Ta - Kyzyl-Adyr las a Naryn r Toktogul Ar a ys K Ea Na Great Talas Can. Talas Qazyghurt st Sook Kochkor ryn Uch Toktogul Reservoir Koshoy Arys Chirchiq Karakujur Naryn Shymkent KYRGYZSTAN Na Qazyghurt ryn Song-Kol Chirchiq Toktogul Toktogul Reservoir

Naryn N Qazyghurt aryn

Chirchiq USE AND PROTECTION OF WATER RESOURCES IN THE CHU AND TALAS RIVER BASINS

At the state level, the Committee on Water Resources regulates water in Kazakhstan. The Committee cov- ers eight basin inspections, including the Shu-Talas. The state programme documents include import- ant Concept of Transition of Kazakhstan to a “green economy”, approved by Presidential Decree in 2013. The State Programme for Water Management in Ka- zakhstan has been prepared with estimated figures for individual water basins in the country. In 2007, specifically for the Chu and Talas River basins, re- search institutes of the Committee on Water Resourc- es developed schemes of complex use and protec- tion of water resources. Since 2011, the “Ak-Bulak” programme aimed at providing drinking water has been implemented; the programme is scheduled to run to 2020.

The Upper Reaches of the Ala-Archa River, the Chu River Basin, Kyrgyzstan

17 In Kyrgyzstan, the Department of Water Resources Hydrological study and monitoring Economic problems resulted in declines in the sup- cent, and in dry years it was as low as 77 per cent. and Irrigation within the Ministry of Agriculture and The basin hydrology is well studied despite the fact ply of appliances, tools and other equipment for hy- Seasonal distribution was also a problem. In normal Land Reclamation includes the Talas and Chu ba- that the monitoring system does not meet all the rec- drometeorological stations and posts. Collection and and dry years, the bulk of water supplied to Kazakh- sin division of water management and subordinate ommendations of the World Meteorological Orga- exchange of data are hindered, and in Kyrgyzstan stan comes outside the growing season, and in the enterprises. Public measures are supplemented by nization. By 2010 the number of observation points observation and forecasting functions are divided growing season the country receives less than it is project activities with the participation of the interna- in the basins had been reduced to 16 in Kazakhstan among multiple agencies, thus making coordination due. tional community. Reforms in the water sector heavily and to 22 in Kyrgyzstan, so currently one point cov- more challenging. In the last decade, however, efforts rely on the establishment of water user associations ers over 3 000 square kilometres. The reduction in to restore the water resources monitoring system In dry years, the use of water resources amounts to and the transfer of the management of irrigation net- the network is linked to the partial elimination of the have been intensified. 100 per cent, especially in the Talas River basin. Im- works to the associations. This process is assumed hydrometeorological observation network, which, in portantly, the water basins are mainly used for irri- to continue until 2017-2018. turn, was caused by changes in the structure of gov- To calculate the volume of run-off and to predict gation (95-99 per cent), but due to the poor state of ernment bodies and funding in the countries early in water volumes in the basin, it is very important to irrigation systems, water losses remain very high – 23 the period of independence. conduct observations on the state of glaciers, but, per cent of water intake in the Chu River basin and 27 unfortunately, information about glaciers located in per cent in the Talas River basin. These figures may Kyrgyzstan is not current in most cases. not reflect the actual water loss, however, because in both basins there are problems in metering water The shrinking of the network of hydrometeorologi- taken for irrigation, and in the collection and com- Water user associations in Kyrgyzstan cal and glaciological observations in the basins has pilation of data on the use of water for rural water After gaining independence Kyrgyzstan launched nizational and personnel problems, hindering the made it difficult to provide assessments of climatic supply, industry and utilities. In this regard, activities land and agrarian reforms that resulted in the dis- regular operation and development of the net- and hydrological changes. to improve metering of the volume of water withdrawn solution of collective and state farms, and farm- work. are to be implemented. lands transferred to private ownership. The irri- Use of water resources gation networks, previously owned by collective The associations are in the process of formation, Over the past 10 years, the volume of water intake In the future, it is necessary to strive to ensure that and state farms, became ownerless; instead of so operations of the irrigation network are not in both countries has fallen by an average of 10 per the volume of river water intake in both the upper and a single water user represented by a collective yet fully functioning. Repair and maintenance of cent, but no water deficit has been reported. The lower parts of the Chu and Talas Rivers should not be or state farm there appeared from 10 to 2 000 irrigation facilities require significant long-term volume of return water has remained fairly stable in increased. Currently, when water resources in these water users, thus complicating the operation of investments, and the associations do not cur- recent years. basins are not fully used, water requirements of natu- irrigation networks and water distribution among rently have the necessary funds. For the purpose ral systems are considered and ultimately can be met consumers. To solve this problem, water user as- of joint operation and maintenance of the canals Despite the fact that during normal water years there by reducing the consumption of water in agriculture sociations have been created to assume control of inter-farm value, the Federation of Water User is no water deficit in the basin, the region experienc- (i.e., as a result of reduction of losses and the use of of irrigation networks, but the associations are Associations has been established, and is facing es certain difficulties in water supply: lack of water efficient irrigation methods). encountering a number of financial, legal, orga- the same problems. in dry years, the poor state of irrigation canals and unauthorized water extraction cause problems with From the ecological point of view, it is important to water supply for the systems of the Western Great ensure the water quality of the Chu and Talas Rivers. Chuy Canal and the lower basin of the Talas River. Salinity in the Kyrgyz part of the Chu River basin is within accepted limits, as is the value of the BOD5 The regulation of flows of the Chu River between the index for the city of Bishkek. Water pollution in terms two countries is an ongoing issue. Between 2006 and of BOD5 in the Kazakh part of the basin is higher than 2011 Kazakhstan often received less water than it re- normal, but its value is much lower than it was in the quired: the water supply was no higher than 90 per Soviet era. The Talas River is being polluted in both

18 19 countries, but in the lower part of the basin most pol- Among the main objectives of ChTVK are the or- that can become a part of the future interstate struc- With the participation and involvement of interna- lution comes from industrial sources. ganization and coordination of the activities for the ture). To facilitate the creation of a body to help coor- tional organizations, bilateral technical assistance implementation of the agreement; a comprehensive dinate the use and management of water resources, programmes and non-governmental organizations, a International cooperation in the basins analysis and prediction of the state of transboundary as well as to support the work of the Commission, number of international projects working to solve the The division of the flow of the Chu River between Ka- water bodies; the coordination of limits, regulations a strategic paper, “Integrated water resources man- water problems of the region have been implemented zakhstan and Kyrgyzstan is based on the “Regulations and procedures of water consumption; the organiza- agement in the basins of the Chu and Talas Rivers”, and are still running in this area. These include: on the division of the flow in the Chu River basin” as of tion of joint actions in emergency situations; the ex- has been prepared. This document is based on the 24 February 1983 and the Protocol as of 18 February change of hydrological forecasts; and the monitoring principles of sustainable development, a basin and • “Support for the establishment of the Commission 1985, under which Kazakhstan receives 2 790 million of water resources, etc. In addition, ChTVK regulates integrated approach to water resources manage- on the Chu and Talas Rivers between Kazakhstan cubic metres of water (42 per cent), and Kyrgyzstan equity participation of the Republic of Kazakhstan in ment, public participation, as well as transparency and Kyrgyzstan” (OSCE, UNECE, UNESCAP, with retains 3 850 million cubic metres (58 per cent). the maintenance of interstate water facilities. Efficient and accountability in decision-making on water man- the participation of the Russian-Estonian Centre work of ChTVK is ensured by the establishment and agement. for Transboundary Cooperation, 2003) As for the Talas River, the division of water between functioning of its secretariat and five working groups. • “Improvement of water resources management Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan is based on the “Regu- To promote the cooperation between the countries, in Central Asia” (Asian Development Bank, 2005- lations on the division of the flow of the Talas River” During its work the Commission identified several an action plan aimed at supplying irrigation water 2008 (phase I), 2009-2013 (phase II)) as of 31 January 1983 and the Protocol as of 18 July shortcomings in the agreement, and as a result a for irrigated land was to be developed and was to • “Development of cooperation in the Chu and Talas 1983. According to these documents, the water re- number of amendments and supplements were in- include a draft agreement for the division of waters River basins” (UNECE, OSCE) sources of the Talas River to be divided in the Kirov troduced. In particular, the agreement does not pro- of the Aspara River, exploring the possibility of feed- • “Promotion of international cooperation on water reservoir total more than 1.5 billion cubic metres, and vide for the financing of the Secretariat of the Com- ing the Western Great Chuy Canal from mountain resources management of transboundary rivers must be distributed equally. mission, nor for simplified procedures for personnel springs and construction of a seasonal reservoir on of Chu and Talas” (Swiss Agency for Development crossing the border nor for exemption from customs the Aspara. Construction of a seasonal reservoir on and Cooperation, 2009-2013 (phase I), 2014-2016 In order to develop mutually beneficial cooperation duties and taxes of goods and transport approved by the Aspara River is under active discussion; the State (phase II)) in water use on a sound legal basis, in 2000 in As- the Commission. In addition, there arose the need to programme titled “Management of water resources • “Strengthening cooperation on adaptation to cli- tana (Kazakhstan) an intergovernmental agreement expand the list of interstate water resources manage- in the Republic of Kazakhstan until 2040” was de- mate change in the Chu-Talas Transboundary Ba- “On the use of the interstate water facilities on the ment facilities. veloped and approved by the Government of the Re- sin” (Environment and Security Initiative, UNDP, Chu and Talas Rivers” was signed. The agreement public of Kazakhstan. UNECE, OSCE, 2010-2013) entered into force in 2002. The agreement provides Another urgent issue – water quality in the trans- • “Creation and maintenance of a database of land for co-financing of the costs of operation and mainte- boundary basin – has not been resolved yet: the dis- A number of international organizations and techni- and water resources of the transboundary basin” nance of the interstate water resources management charge of sewage water and water pollution by in- cal assistance programmes of individual countries, (GIZ, 2013) facilities located on the territory of Kyrgyzstan. These dustrial enterprises significantly affect the quality of including the Asian Development Bank, UNECE, • “Dam Safety in Central Asia: Capacity Building facilities include the Ortho-Tokoy Reservoir, the By- water in the rivers; this problem is particularly acute OSCE, the Swiss Agency for Development and Co- for Regional Cooperation” (UNECE, 2007-2011 (II pass Chuy reinforced concrete canals, the West and in dry periods. operation, and others support the ChTVK activities. phase), 2013-2016 (III phase)) East Chuy canals with associated waterworks and the Chumysh hydro system on the Chu River. During the implementation of the integrated water resources management policy in transboundary ba- To implement the agreement, in 2006 the Commis- sins, the members of the Commission came to a de- sion of the Republic of Kazakhstan and the Kyrgyz cision about the need to develop a new draft agree- Republic on the use of the interstate water facilities ment, and to create an Interstate Basin Council in the on the Chu and Talas Rivers (ChTVK) was established. future. (Currently both countries have basin councils

20 21 CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACT

Arable farming in the upper reaches of the Talas River, Kyrgyzstan

23 During the period of instrumental observations from basis of atmosphere-ocean general circulation climate No unambiguous trend in rainfall is apparent. On av- significant, in rainfall in winter and summer. 1920 to 2010, the temperature in the basins increased, models recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel erage, in the basin during the period of instrument with the most dramatic rise observed in the last on Climate Change (IPCC). It is difficult to determine if observations there was an increase in rainfall, which Experts in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan describe the 20 years. The most significant increases in surface this discrepancy is due to deficiencies in the models has been replaced by a slight reduction over the past overall growth of aridity and the declining availability temperature were registered in February, November or if observed trends will change dramatically in the 20 years. An analysis of the period from the 1940s to of water resources as the most likely and serious im- and March (the relatively cold period of the year), while near future. The inter-annual variability in growth has the present reveals that since the 1970s, the number pacts of climate change in the basin. These changes the rise in temperature during the warm season was not been observed, moreover, it has consistently been of dry years has exceeded the number of wet years. are expected in the context of a significant project- insignificant. Unfortunately, the observed trends do not reduced, which can be regarded as a positive factor in The analysis of changes in different seasons shows a ed increase by mid-century in the demand for water coincide with the expected changes calculated on the terms of the possible effects of climate change. decline of traditional maximum precipitation in spring as a result of economic development and population and autumn accompanied by an increase, though in- growth.

Temperature changes in the Chu and Talas River basins Precipitation changes in the Chu and Talas River basins

HISTORICAL MEAN TEMPERATURE CHANGES PROJECTIONS OF MONTHLY TEMPERATURES HISTORICAL PRECIPITATION CHANGES PROJECTIONS OF MONTHLY PRECIPITATION CHANGE C° C° INCREASE IN 2050 AND 2085 COMPARED TO 1961-1990 mm % IN 2050 AND 2085 COMPARED TO 1961-1990 0 8 5.5 5.5 600 40 40

5.0 5.0 7 500 30 30

4.5 4.5 6 400 20 20 4.0 4.0 5 300 10 10 3.5 3.5

4 0 0 3.0 3.0 200

3 2.5 2.5 100 -10 -10

2 2.0 2.0 0 -20 -20 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2050 2085 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2050 2085 mean changes according to scenario A1B* mean changes according to scenario A1B* trend according to scenario A2** trend according to scenario A2**

* scenario A1B – a balanced emphasis on all energy Produced by Zoï Environment Network, 2013 sources. The A1 scenario family is characterized by rapid * scenario A1B – a balanced emphasis on all energy Source: Hydrometeorological centres of countries economic growth, a global population of 9 billion Produced by Zoï Environment Network, 2013 sources. The A1 scenario family is characterized by rapid Source: Hydrometeorological centres of countries economic growth, a global population of 9 billion technologies and extensive social and cultural interactions worldwide. technologies and extensive social and cultural interactions worldwide. ** scenario A2 – the A2 scenario family is characterized by a world of independently operating, self-reliant nations, ** scenario A2 – the A2 scenario family is characterized by continuously increasing population and regionally a world of independently operating, self-reliant nations, oriented economic development. continuously increasing population and regionally oriented economic development.

24 25 u K is a ar r S Lake Balkhash at ol Karaqoyyn Koli The Institute of Water Issues Correlations between the probability and severity of problems and the potential for adaptation and Hydropower with the Na- in the Chu and Talas River basins tional Academy of Sciences of Kyrgyzstan investigated the possible effects of climate Agriculture change on glaciers and surface KAZAKHSTAN Ili run-off and made the appro- KYR Ashchykol priate calculations for the main u Akzhaykyn Koli Ch river basins of Kyrgyzstan, Water rti provision Kokuidynkol Ku more Muyunkum Kapchagay Res. including the Chu and Talas. KAZ serious KAZ Kapchagay According to the calculations, consequences Muyunkum with the current level of precip- Aridity itation (average for 1961-1990) Desert KYR Tole Bi Almaty glaciers in the Talas River basin Zhanakorgan Shu will have disappeared by 2050, KAZ Janatas Ta and as a result of the forecast- Fodder Soil la rty fertility s gha Korday supplies Kentau Aqkol ura ed climate change, glaciers in Q Chu Qaratau Bishkek both basins may be fully ex- KYR СО Turkestan KAZ 2 S Bilikol Taraz Tokmok Kemin hausted by 2100. Change in yr concentration Da K Merki Kara-Balta Balykchy ry y Issyk Kul parameters of river run-off is Livestock in the a r g KAZ Baurzhan y z n g e less atmosphere* Momyshuly R a likely to begin in the period from A Kochkor serious Water rys Kyzyl-Adyr Talas 2020 to 2030. (Calculations are consequences KYR supply Shymkent based on worst-case scenarios infrastructure Arys KYR of greenhouse gas emissions Toktogul Toktogul Reservoir Song-Kol and models of climate change scenarios available at the time Qazyghurt KYRGYZSTAN Naryn Naryn of calculation; thus the use of possible likely very likely 0 50 km Chirchiq additional scenarios and cur- Map produced by ZOÏ Environment Network, September 2013 UZBEKISTAN rent models would help clarify the results obtained). Synthesis of climate changes in the Chu and Talas River basins Current adaptation potential: * positive impact, adaptation action not needed

Temperature change Precipitation change high 1990-2002 compared to 1961-1990 (° Celsius) 1990-2002 compared to 1961-1990 (%) medium +0.5 +0.6 +0.7 +0.8 +10% low +5%

Produced by Zoï Environment Network, 2013 Melting of glaciers due to climate change -5% Source: experts' data

Basin borders -10%

National borders

Source: ClimateWizard (www.climatewizard.org) 26 27 Flow change and food security in the Kyrgyz For each of these options, calculations of water Forecast of water consumption in the Kazakh These figures can be compared with 2010 water part of the basin requirements in the case of temperature increases part of the basin consumption, which amounted to about 10 000 A quantitative assessment of changes in the char- by 2100 of 4.0°C and 6.4°C have been made. The water consumption forecast till 2020 fore- cubic metres per hectare. acteristics of surface water resources in the Chu sees in the Kazakh part of the Chu River basin River basin from 1929 to 2010 was carried out for For the first option, when the temperature rises an increase of water withdrawal up to 1.195 bil- The analysis and forecasts of the development two cross-sections (in the village of Kochkorka by 4°C, the actual shortage of water resources in lion cubic metres, and in the Talas River basin up of irrigated agriculture in the Zhambyl oblast in and on the border with Kazakhstan). At the sec- the Chu River basin by the beginning of 2040 will to 1.048 billion cubic metres. Ensuring adequate Kazakhstan (the boundaries of the Chu and Talas ond point the annual consumption for the period be about 135 million cubic metres, and when the environmental flows will require a reduction in the River basins basically coincide with its borders) varied from 62.8 to 99.4 cubic metres per second temperature increases by 6.4°C, this figure will be amount of water used in agriculture. According to considered the following parameters: the required and has a slight tendency to increase. The wa- about 285 million cubic metres. Results for the re- the State Programme of the Republic of Kazakh- water resources and their transboundary nature; ter regime of the Talas River, especially below the maining three options are presented on the graph- stan on Water Management, even without climate ensured food security in the region; the need to town of Talas, is highly distorted due to intakes. ic on page 32. change impacts, a water deficit of 1.7 billion cubic maintain soil fertility with mandatory introduction Water use in the spring and summer months can metres per year is expected. The consequences of crop rotation; and the creation of highly profit- be reduced to 1.5-3.0 cubic metres per second, On the basis of the predicted water consumption, of climate change can exacerbate the projected able agricultural production. Possible impacts of while in autumn and winter the average water an economic evaluation of changes has been car- water shortages. climate change were not considered in the calcu- consumption index does not fall below 15-20 cu- ried out. So, for example, in the Chu River basin, lations. Diversifying industry, improving farming bic metres per second; the long-term annual av- according to the forecast, by the beginning of It is assumed that by the 2080s, with an increase culture, implementing up-to-date water-saving erage water consumption rate for the Talas River 2040 the damage for the first option, in the view of in temperature by 2°C, the moisture coefficient and resource-saving technologies in production is 46.3 cubic metres per second. Evaluation of growing population, will be about US $10 million, will be reduced from 0.24 to 0.18 or even lower. and using new, as well as currently unused irri- surface water resources in the basin of the Talas when the temperature rises by 4°C, and twice this In such a scenario, by 2030-2050 the water nec- gated land, are expected to achieve a reduction River for the period from 1930 to 2010 showed figure when the temperature rises by 6.4°C. essary to irrigate one hectare (irrigation net rate), of 20-30 per cent in water intake for irrigation that the volume of flow has a slight tendency to will increase depending on the crop by 200-400 from natural water bodies and to bring the share increase. Since all calculations were made for the existing cubic metres, and by 2085 it will increase by ad- of groundwater and drainage water for irrigation limits of water consumption and water systems ditional 200-400 cubic metres. Given that the cur- to 20 per cent of total water consumption. These To calculate the amount of water required to en- and contemporary agricultural output, it can be rent coefficient of performance (COP) of irrigation steps are also expected to reduce irrigation norms sure food security in the most populous Kyrgyz assumed that water shortages may occur earlier. systems is about 0.5, it can be expected that after by up to 7 100 cubic metres of water per hectare part of the basin, four options for the conditions improvement of irrigation methods and introduc- and to improve the efficiency of irrigation systems have been considered: tion of more careful use of water (using advanced and methods by up to 0.75-0.80, and to increase irrigation methods, such as sprinkling, the sub- yields of irrigated crops by a factor of 1.5-2.3. 1) The provision of food from the basin’s own re- surface and ridge method and drip irrigation) the Such measures as those described above reduce sources COP of irrigation systems will be: vulnerability to climate change and serve also ad- 2) Option 1 with export of surplus production aptation to it. 3) Option 2 without importing of substitute prod- • In 2030: 0.58-0.62 with consumption of 8 100 ucts cubic metres of water per hectare 4) Option 2 with importing of substitute products • In 2050: 0.66-0.70 with consumption of 7 400 cubic metres of water per hectare • In 2085: 0.80 with consumption of 6 800 cubic metres of water per hectare

28 29 u K is a ar r S Lake Balkhash at ol Karaqoyyn Koli

Ashchykol KAZAKHSTAN Ili

Akzhaykyn Koli Chu rti Ku Decreasing run-o in the rivers by 2050 Kokuidynkol Muyunkum Kapchagay Res. Shortage of fresh water Kapchagay Changes of geographical zones

su K ri a a Muyunkumr Tole Bi S Lake Balkhash at Almaty ol Karaqoyyn Koli Zhanakorgan Shu Janatas Desert arty Ta gh Korday Aqkol l ra Kentau a u s Q Ch Qaratau Bishkek u Turkestan Kara-Balta Tokmok Kemin Syr Bilikol Taraz Da K Merki Balykchy ry y a r Issyk Kul Baurzhan g y z n g e Momyshuly R a Ashchykol A Ili Kochkor KAZAKHSTANry s Kyzyl-Adyr Talas Akzhaykyn Koli Chu Arys Shymkent rti Kokuidynkol Ku Song-Kol Decreasing run-o in the rivers by 2050 Muyunkum Kapchagay Res. Toktogul Reservoir Toktogul Shortage of fresh water Kapchagay Changes of geographical zones Qazyghurt KYRGYZSTAN Naryn Naryn 0 50 km MuyunkumTole Bi Chirchiq Almaty Map produced by ZOÏ Environment Network, September 2013 Zhanakorgan Shu UZBEKISTAN Janatas Desert u K y is a Synthesis of climateart projections and impacts in the Chu and Talas River basins r Ta gh Korday a r Aqkol l ra S Lake Balkhash Kentau a a u to s Q Chu lQaratau Projected temperature changeBishkek Projected precipitation change Melting of glaciers due to climate change Karaqoyyn Koli Turkestan Kara-Balta Tokmok Kemin Syr Bilikol Taraz 2050s compared to 1961-1990 (° Celsius) 2050s compared to 1961-1990 (%) Shortage of water resources by 2050 for industry Da K Merki Balykchy ry y Issyk Kul a +2.8 +2.9r +3.0 Baurzhan g y z +10%n g e Momyshuly R a Shortage of water resources by 2050 for agriculture A Kochkor rys Kyzyl-Adyr Talas +5% Decrease in productivity of forests Shymkent Basin borders Arys Even though precipitation is projected to increase, the Decrease in productivity of pastures National borders e ectSong-Kol of higher evapotranspiration due to higher Toktogul Reservoir Toktogul temperatures will lead to a more arid climate. Decrease in snow cover (territories over 2 500 metres)

Increase in desertification Ashchykol Qazyghurt KYRGYZSTAN Naryn KAZAKHSTAN Ili Naryn Model for temperature and precipitation change: 0 50 km IPCC Fourth Assessment Chirchiq Emission scenario: Medium A1B Map produced by ZOÏ Environment Network, September 2013 Source: ClimateWizard (www.climatewizard.org) General circulation model: Ensemble Average Akzhaykyn Koli Chu UZBEKISTAN rti Synthesis of climate projections andKu impacts in the Chu and Talas River basins Decreasing run-o in the rivers by 2050 Kokuidynkol Muyunkum Kapchagay Res. Projected temperature change Projected precipitation change Melting of glaciers due to climate change Shortage of fresh water Kapchagay Changes of geographical zones 2050s compared to 1961-1990 (° Celsius) 2050s compared to 1961-1990 (%) Shortage of water resources by 2050 for industry +2.8 +2.9 +3.0 +10% Shortage of water resources by 2050 for agriculture MuyunkumTole Bi +5% Almaty Decrease in productivity of forests Basin borders Zhanakorgan Shu Even though precipitation is projected to increase, the Decrease in productivity of pastures Desert National borders e ect of higher evapotranspiration due to higher Janatas temperatures will lead to a more arid climate. Decrease in snow cover (territories over 2 500 metres) arty Ta gh Korday Increase in desertification Aqkol l ra Kentau a u s Q Chu Model for temperature and precipitation change: Qaratau IPCC Fourth Assessment Bishkek Emission scenario: Medium A1B Turkestan Kara-BaltaSource: ClimateWizard (www.climatewizard.org)Tokmok Kemin General circulation model: Ensemble Average Syr Bilikol Taraz Da K Merki Balykchy ry y a r Issyk Kul Baurzhan g y z n g e Momyshuly R a A Kochkor ry s Kyzyl-Adyr Talas Arys Shymkent Song-Kol Toktogul Reservoir Toktogul

Qazyghurt KYRGYZSTAN Naryn Naryn 0 50 km Chirchiq Map produced by ZOÏ Environment Network, September 2013 UZBEKISTAN Synthesis of climate projections and impacts in the Chu and Talas River basins 31 Projected temperature change Projected precipitation change Melting of glaciers due to climate change

2050s compared to 1961-1990 (° Celsius) 2050s compared to 1961-1990 (%) Shortage of water resources by 2050 for industry +2.8 +2.9 +3.0 +10% Shortage of water resources by 2050 for agriculture

+5% Decrease in productivity of forests Basin borders Even though precipitation is projected to increase, the Decrease in productivity of pastures National borders e ect of higher evapotranspiration due to higher temperatures will lead to a more arid climate. Decrease in snow cover (territories over 2 500 metres)

Increase in desertification Model for temperature and precipitation change: IPCC Fourth Assessment Emission scenario: Medium A1B Source: ClimateWizard (www.climatewizard.org) General circulation model: Ensemble Average Main agricultural production Climate change may affect the Currently, due to insufficient environmental flows of Unfortunately, there is no long-term data on natural tonnes number and severity of associ- water in the lower reaches of the Chu and Talas Riv- disasters, and therefore it is difficult to analyze, let ated natural disasters such as ers (Kazakhstan), irreversible processes related to de- alone, predict its dynamics. Other types of damage 2500 mudslides, floods, landslides, av- sertification and its consequences are under way. It resulting from climate change may include damage - alanches, water-logging, torrential is necessary to develop specific and comprehensive from changes in the boundaries of geographic areas. 2000 rains, drought, hurricanes, hail and measures to ensure the availability and regulation of - heavy snowfall. In areas with in- water in the lower reaches.

1500 sufficient water, extreme adverse events are observed in dry years. In Kyrgyzstan, there River flow projections for the Chu and Talas under different warming scenarios for 2030, 2050 and 2100 - In spring and summer, during the have been sever- Chu River basin 1000 3 3 snowmelt and after heavy rains on al studies of eco- km HISTORICAL km PROJECTIONS - the mountain rivers of the Chu and nomic losses from 4.0 4.0 500 Talas basins, dangerous floods climate-related and mudslides can form. The natural disasters. - 3.0 3.0 main factors contributing to the According to vari- 0 formation of debris flows can be ous sources (World 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 divided into landscape-climatic, Bank, Emergency 2.0 2.0 Chu River basin geological and geomorphological, Ministry), in 2005 Talas River basin and anthropogenic. The latter in- the average damag- clude deforestation, overgrazing, es from mudslides 1.0 1.0 Produced by Zoï Environment Network, 2013 the plowing of slopes, and the ef- came to about US Source: statistical data fects of mining, road construction $135 000; from 0 0 +1.5 °C +4.0 °C +6.4 °C +1.5 °C +4.0 °C +6.4 °C +1.5 °C +4.0 °C +6.4 °C and civil engineering. floods, more than 1970 2000 Projections of water shortages for agriculture US $100 000; from 2030 2050 2100 in Chu River basin by 2040 landslides, more than US $70 000; Talas River basin and from avalanch- 3 3 VARIANT 1 VARIANT 2 VARIANT 3 VARIANT 4 km HISTORICAL km PROJECTIONS es, more than US self-sustained food security self-sustained food security + self-sustained food security + self-sustained food security + 2.5 2.5 export of surpluses export of surpluses - export of surpluses + $120 000. Using the import-substituting products import-substituting products above data, we can 2.0 2.0 determine that the increase in the total 1.5 1.5 damage caused by climate-related di- sasters, as the tem- 1.0 1.0 perature rises by 135 285 136 286 380 530 382 532 one degree Celsius, 0.5 0.5 mln m³ will be over US $3 0 0 million. It should be +1.5 °C +4.0 °C +6.4 °C +1.5 °C +4.0 °C +6.4 °C +1.5 °C +4.0 °C +6.4 °C by 2040 with temperature increase of +4.0˚С 1970 2000 by 2040 with temperature increase of +6.4˚С noted that only the 2030 2050 2100 direct damage was Produced by Zoï Environment Network, 2013 being assessed. Source: Institute of water and hydropower of the Academy of Science of the Republic of Kyrgyzstan Produced by Zoï Environment Network, 2013 Source: experts’ estimates

32 33 RECOMMENDATIONS AND SUGGESTIONS REGARDING CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION MEASURES

The efficient use of water resources, especially in the projected conditions of the decline in river flows, af- fects the livelihoods of about 3 million people in both republics, so measures aimed at saving water are vital.

Within the “Strengthening cooperation in adaptation to climate change in transboundary basins of the Chu and Talas Rivers” project, a joint coordinated analysis of climate change trends has been carried out for the first time. The results of the analysis have provided the basis for planning the joint efforts of Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan on adaptation to climate change in these river basins.

Adaptation measures, shown in the table, have been prepared with the help of the UNECE Guidance on Water Resources and Adaptation to Climate Change and “Guidance on Water and Adaptation to Climate Change” publication (2009). They were discussed with experts at a seminar in the city of Bishkek in Febru- ary 2014 and were finalized following this discussion. The most urgent measures are highlighted ** and less urgent *.

Glaciers in the Chu River basin, Kyrgyzstan

35 Research, monitoring, data Raising public awareness about Reduction of damage Interstate interaction and Enhancing efficiency Protection of water ecosystems exchange and demonstration climate change and integration from extreme floods, water cooperation on adaptation and the part of the basin projects on climate change of relevant issues in the plans of the use of water shortage (drought) and other and improvement of resilience resources in agriculture where the flow is generated, and resource conservation and activities of the Chu-Talas severe weather events to climate change and ensuring water quality in the region Commission and countries

** Develop and implement a water-­ ** Communicate the results of ** Conduct assessments (model- ** Capitalize on synergies and ** Improve the efficiency of irriga- ** Develop scenarios of combined balance and hydrological basin projects and research and climate ling) of parameters (or variables) mutual benefits for the river basin tion water use by implementing pressure on water ecosystems (hu- model that takes into account the change issues in the Chu-Talas ba- of extremely high and low water from implementation of national available methods for accounting, man activities + climate change) impact of climate change on socio- sin and exchange experience with availability, taking into account cli- strategies and projects on climate planning and regulation and by and, based on the above, adjust economic development, the provi- other countries and river basins mate change and vulnerable infra- change strengthening water user associ- the development plans sion of water and water security structure ations ** Strengthen the cooperation with ** Integrate important climate ** Provide the necessary level of ** Open the databases and the re- the developers of industry strat- ** Improve early warning for dan- change adaptation parameters ** Increase the yield from irrigated protection of river and mountain sults of the climatic and hydrologi- egies for adaptation to climate gerous events and forecasts of into regional projects on water land through crop rotation, diver- ecosystems to maintain the ecol- cal data, models and scenarios for change in the countries and the hydrometeorological phenomena, resources, agriculture and water sification of cultivated products, ogy of rivers, water quality and public use, and further develop the region as a whole and facilitate the exchange of in- supply the use of high-yielding1 varieties minimum ecological flow, as well knowledge base formation between the countries adapted to climate change, effi- as to reduce the risk of floods and * Gradually integrate climate and the dissemination of informa- ** Estimate the cost and cost-­ cient tillage and the selection of droughts ** Optimize and automate the net- change scenario data into the tion among the major users effectiveness of adaptation mea- appropriate fertilizers work of observation stations and planning for the use of water in a sures and the possibility of sharing * Strengthen and, where appro- monitoring points for climate, wa- transboundary context ** Provide for mutual sharing of costs and benefits between the ** Attract financing and micro-­ priate, harmonize regulatory doc- ter resources and glaciers information about the danger of countries credits for the introduction of uments concerning water protec- * Participate in regional and inter- floods and droughts, and coordi- water-saving technologies on ir- tion zones and the efficiency of ** Implement a demonstration proj- national forums on climate change nate the adoption of measures to * Update and enforce the rules of rigated land with severe water enforcement ect for the study of local opportuni- and water-basin cooperation protect the population and infra- operation of interstate water facili- shortages ties and measures to conserve wa- structure ties in view of climate change ter and soil and for improvement of * Conduct information campaigns water metering; promote the wide- on careful and rational use of wa- * Provide adequate insurance spread adoption of such projects ter, and provide training on climate against the risk of hazards to farm- change issues at the local level ers and water organizations * Enhance the reliability of weather forecasts, and improve agromete- orological services and methods of informing users

* Promote the development of ser- vices and access to electronic in- formation, including the web portal of ChTVK 1 Precautions and assessment of risk should be in place when introducing GMO varieties

37 Long-term investments in The analysis shows that the two countries still have ty and quality of water resources, and help develop Agro-technical improving resistance to climate differences in the economic assessment of water mutual trust between the Kyrgyz Republic and the adaptation methods change in densely populated data and in determining the trends in water use in the ­Republic of Kazakhstan. areas of the Chu-Talas basin basin. To ensure the proper planning of joint actions on adaptation, it is essential to harmonize economic One of the important recommendations for the information, as well as the forecasting and analytical Chu-Talas Basin Commission based on the results of ** Familiarize farmers with region- ** Modernize and increase the methods related to water resources. the work is to organize and lead the development and al and international experience of safety of dams, existing reservoirs implementation of specific adaptation measures to sustainable agriculture, and facili- and riverbank constructions, and Joint monitoring, data comparability and bringing climate change in the basins, including the principles tate participation and provide train- reduce the level and intensity of methodology and standards to the international level of integrated water resources management in trans- ing in land-use methods and sus- siltation on the basis of projected will help improve the accuracy of data on the quanti- boundary basins. tainable agriculture climate change

** Introduce soil conservation tech- ** Modernize the main and on-farm nologies for the tillage of rain-fed irrigation networks in order to re- and irrigated soils and for locally duce water losses, based on the adapted and international varieties forecast of water volumes of the main rivers in the basin ** Monitor the status of soil fertility and geo-botanic and soil surveys ** Introduce automated accounting and water distribution systems and * Introduce agro-climatic zoning, the principles of integrated water taking into account the preserva- resources management throughout tion of local crops and integrated the basins landscape planning ** Rehabilitate saline and aban- * Promote the effective protection doned land (chemical and biolog- from pests and diseases2 ical reclamation), and promote the recovery of natural floodplains and riverbeds

* Construct3 water regulating facil- ities (reservoirs, canals, pumping stations) to improve water securi- ty under the conditions of climate change

2 With the use of current and environmentally friendly methods and means 3 In a coordinated approach between the countries

38 39 Zoï Environment Network International Environment House Tel. +41 22 917 83 42 Chemin de Balexert 9 www.zoinet.org CH-1219 Châtelaine 40 [email protected] Geneva, Switzerland