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Climate-Proofing Cooperation in the Chu and Talas River Basins

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Climate-Proofing Cooperation in the Chu and Talas River Basins Climate-proofing cooperation in the Chu and Talas river basins Support for integrating the climate dimension into the management of the Chu and Talas River Basins as part of the Enhancing Climate Resilience and Adaptive Capacity in the Transboundary Chu-Talas Basin project, funded by the Finnish Ministry for Foreign Affairs under the FinWaterWei II Initiative Geneva 2018 The Chu and Talas river basins, shared by Kazakhstan and By way of an integrated consultative process, the Finnish the Kyrgyz Republic in Central Asia, are among the few project enabled a climate-change perspective in the design basins in Central Asia with a river basin organization, the and activities of the GEF project as a cross-cutting issue. Chu-Talas Water Commission. This Commission began to The review of climate impacts was elaborated as a thematic address emerging challenges such as climate change and, annex to the GEF Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis, to this end, in 2016 created the dedicated Working Group on which also included suggestions for adaptation measures, Adaptation to Climate Change and Long-term Programmes. many of which found their way into the Strategic Action Transboundary cooperation has been supported by the Programme resulting from the project. It has also provided United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) the Commission and other stakeholders with cutting-edge and other partners since the early 2000s. The basins knowledge about climate scenarios, water and health in the are also part of the Global Network of Basins Working context of climate change, adaptation and its financing, as on Climate Change under the UNECE Convention on the well as modern tools for managing river basins and water Protection and Use of Transboundary Watercourses and scarcity at the national, transboundary and global levels. International Lakes (Water Convention) and are among its pilot basins on climate change. The process of adapting the Chu and Talas basins to Climate highlights from the climate change began in 2010 with the elaboration of Chu and Talas Transboundary joint climate scenarios and the modelling of possible changes in water resources. This was followed by a joint Diagnostic Analysis vulnerability assessment for selected areas and sectors, and the development of a package of possible adaptation • Average annual temperatures in the territory of the measures and relevant procedures for implementation Chu and Talas river basins is expected to increase through the Chu-Talas Water Commission. by between 2 to 3°С by 2050 and by 3 to 4°С by 2100 according to the IPCC’s moderate RCP 4.5 scenario. If Between 2015 and 2018 adaptation was further supported change in the global greenhouse gas concentration with the Enhancing Climate Resilience and Adaptive follows the more severe RPC 8.5 scenario, winter and Capacity in the Transboundary Chu-Talas Basin project, summer temperatures may by the end of the century funded by the Finnish Ministry for Foreign Affairs under the increase by between 5 to 6°C. FinWaterWei II Initiative. Finland also contributed heavily • Under the RCP 4.5 scenario, annual precipitation is to the international project Enabling Transboundary expected to increase by between 5 to 10% by 2050 and 10 Cooperation and Integrated Water Resources Management to 15% by 2100. Under RPC 8.5, winter precipitation will in the Chu and Talas River Basins, financed by the Global increase by between 20 to 40% (and by 50% and more in Environment Facility (GEF) and implemented between 2015 mountainous areas), while in summer most of the basin and 2018 by the United Nations Development Programme will see less rain than today. The mountainous area and UNECE. This latter project aimed to assess common subject to rainfall will expand towards highlands with management challenges in these shared basins and to unstable soil and scarce vegetation, which may lead to establish cooperative solutions for them. more mudflows, landslides and floods. Increased rock instability may also affect the safety of dams, dykes, canals, roads and mining waste storage sites. 2 Average annual temperature in the Chu-Talas river basins Source: Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis across the Chu and Talas river basins • Glaciers will continue to melt and with high temperature response. Similarly, the low-water crisis in 2014 increase, they may become fully depleted by 2100. Under demonstrated the need for the wider use of water- the most extreme scenario, river run-off is projected to saving techniques such as drip irrigation, in particular increase until the 2020s because of glacier runout, but in Kyrgyzstan. then to decrease by the end of the century to between • 25 to 45% of the current level. At the same time water Climate change impacts are also expected to affect demand for irrigation, industry and water supply will people’s health in the basins. continue to grow, further aggravating regional water stress and potentially complicating inter-state relations. • The 2016 flash floods on the Talas river demonstrated the challenges that the basin countries face in their respective capacities for an adequate and coordinated 3 Synthesis of climate projections, impacts and adaptation in the Chu and the Talas river basins Range of river flow projections 2100 Projected temperature change Selected adaptation measures u K ris a Sa Weak climate change (+1.5 °C / +10% precipitation): same flow as in current conditions 2050s compared to 1961 – 1990 (° Celsius) implemented with Finland's supportra tol Strong climate change (+6.4 °C / -10% precipitation): flow reduction by 45 – 50% Lake Balkhash -2 +2 +4 Restoration of floodplain forests Feasibility study for dam safety monitoring 4 2 1 km³/year Projected precipitation change Press tour for the national and the local media 2050s compared to 1961 – 1990 (%) Bishkek Training in water-saving irrigation techniques +10% -10% Talas Information and awareness raising +5% -5% meetings with local communities Ashchykol Kazakhstan Ili Location-specific adaptation planned Chu under GEF Strategic Action Programme* Akzhaykyn Koli Local adaptation plans for sub-basin Moyinqum ecosystem servicesKu rti Kapchagay Res. Kapchagay Almaty Zhanakorgan Tole Bi Shu Chu Korday S Janatas Krasnaya Rechka yr D y a T art ry a gh a Aqkol la ura Tokmok Kentau s Q Qaratau Aspara river basin Bishkek Melting and/or disappearing Turkestanof glaciers due to climate change Kara-Balta Bilikol Taraz Merki Kemin Tort Kul Shortage of water resources by 2050 for industry Issyk Kul Kukureu river basin Balykchy Farmland: shortage of water resources by 2050 for agriculture Kirov Res. A Talas Decrease of productivity of forests rys Baurzhan Kochkor Momyshuly Decrease of productivity of pastures Kara-Buura Arys Border of the basin Kyrgyzstan State borders Shymkent Toktogul Song-Kol Toktogul Reservoir Naryn Qazyghurt Sources: IPCC Fifth Assessment, Emission scenario: RCP45, General circulation model: average of HadGEM2’s; River flow projections: Institute of Water Problems and Hydropower of the Academy of Sciences of the Kyrgyz Republic (author Naryn V. A. Kuzmichenok); Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis across the Chu and the Talas river basins; Strategic Action Programme for 0 50 km Chirchiq the Chu and the Talas river basins; reports of locally-based project partners Map produced by ZOÏ Environment Network, November 2018 Uzbekistan * At this point it is not yet possible to specify the exact location of all adaptation measures included in GEF SAP. Synthesis of climate projections, impacts and adaptation in the Chu and the Talas river basins 4 Many of the suggestions in the Transboundary Diagnostic The Climate Change goal of the Strategic Action Programme, Analysis for adapting the Chu and Talas basins to climate with its four objectives, focuses on ‘softer’ measures to re- change correspond to the commitments of both Kazakhstan duce long-term risk of climate-change impacts on the pop- and the Kyrgyz Republic in the 2015 Paris Agreement frame- ulation, economy and ecosystems. work. The majority of these suggestions are governed by the need to modernise water infrastructure and adjust de- Climate objective 1 (short-term): velopment programmes for economic sectors and regions. Improve the information base, exchange of data However, climate change is not the only driver but often and experience for making effective decisions to an additional factor that affects the urgency of preventing or mitigating the damage. Consequently, a number of the mitigate the negative effects of climate change: suggestions found their place in the various – not only cli- • exchange hydrometeorological and climate information mate-specific – goals of the Strategic Action Programme. and forecasts; • Goal 1: Quantity of Water. Ensuring the effective use of wa- develop a GIS information base on the natural condi- ter resources for sustainability of socio-economic develop- tions, infrastructure and ecology of the basin, and map ment and ecosystems. climatic risks with due account of regional development plans; Goal 2: Quality of Water. Improving the quality of water • set up a common system for assessing current and ex- resources and reducing their harmful effects on human pected climate change. health and ecosystems. Goal 3: Ecosystem Conservation. Conservation and im- Climate objective 2 (short-term): provement of the state of ecosystems at a level ensuring Improve awareness/knowledge of a wide range a balance of ecological equilibrium and socio-economic of stakeholders of adaptation measures, and en- development. hance their resilience to climate change impacts: Goal 4: Climate Change. Reducing the risk of negative im- • assess climate awareness of different target groups; pacts of climate change on the population, economy and ecosystems by applying a set of adaptation measures. • carry out awareness campaigns to increase their resil- ience to climate change impacts; Goal 5: Cooperation. Increasing capacity of transboundary cooperation for the purposes of ensuring effective man- • prepare and disseminate popular scientific materials agement of the Chu and Talas River Basins. and information products about climate change, its re- gional impacts and best adaptation practices.
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