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Evaluating Vulnerability of Central Asian Water Resources Under Uncertain Climate and Development Conditions: the Case of the Ili-Balkhash Basin

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water Article Evaluating Vulnerability of Central Asian Water Resources under Uncertain Climate and Development Conditions: The Case of the Ili-Balkhash Basin Tesse de Boer 1,*, Homero Paltan 1,2, Troy Sternberg 1 and Kevin Wheeler 3 1 School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3QY, UK; [email protected] (H.P.); [email protected] (T.S.) 2 Institute of Geography, Universidad San Francisco de Quito, Quito 170901, Ecuador 3 Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3QY, UK; [email protected] * Correspondence: [email protected] Abstract: The Ili-Balkhash basin (IBB) is considered a key region for agricultural development and international transport as part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The IBB is exemplary for the combined challenge of climate change and shifts in water supply and demand in transboundary Central Asian closed basins. To quantify future vulnerability of the IBB to these changes, we employ a scenario-neutral bottom-up approach with a coupled hydrological-water resource modelling set-up on the RiverWare modelling platform. This study focuses on reliability of environmental flows under historical hydro-climatic variability, future hydro-climatic change and upstream water demand development. The results suggest that the IBB is historically vulnerable to environmental shortages, and any increase in water consumption will increase frequency and intensity of shortages. Increases in precipitation and temperature improve reliability of flows downstream, along with water demand Citation: de Boer, T.; Paltan, H.; reductions upstream and downstream. Of the demand scenarios assessed, extensive water saving is Sternberg, T.; Wheeler, K. Evaluating most robust to climate change. However, the results emphasize the competition for water resources Vulnerability of Central Asian Water among up- and downstream users and between sectors in the lower Ili, underlining the importance Resources under Uncertain Climate of transboundary water management to mitigate cross-border impacts. The modelling tool and and Development Conditions: The outcomes may aid decision-making under the uncertain future in the basin. Case of the Ili-Balkhash Basin. Water 2021, 13, 615. https://doi.org/ Keywords: climate change; belt and road initiative; water resources; central Asia 10.3390/w13050615 Academic Editor: Steven G. Pueppke Received: 29 January 2021 1. Introduction Accepted: 21 February 2021 Transboundary closed or endorheic river and lake systems are among the most vulner- Published: 26 February 2021 able to changes in demand and supply, exemplified by the drastic reduction in surface area and volume of the Aral Sea, Lake Urmia and Lake Chad in the last decades [1]. The closed Publisher’s Note: MDPI stays neutral basins of Central Asia are particularly vulnerable; climate change threatens water supply with regard to jurisdictional claims in from glacier systems and increases evaporative losses, while demand is rising [2,3]. Uncer- published maps and institutional affil- tain climate projections, human decision making and natural variability of hydrological iations. systems complicate risk management [4]. The endorheic transboundary Ili-Balkhash Basin (IBB) illustrates these challenges. The Ili River supplies 70–80% of annual inflows to Lake Balkhash, currently the largest endorheic freshwater lake (average volume 106 billion cubic metres (BCM) in Copyright: © 2021 by the authors. Central Asia since the desiccation of the Aral Sea [5–7]. The Ili River is the longest river Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. shared between China (Xinjiang Province) and South East Kazakhstan (see Figure1), This article is an open access article taking water from the Tian Shan mountains in Xinjiang to the Kazakh steppe. In the dry distributed under the terms and continental Central Asian region, the Ili is an important source of water for the growing conditions of the Creative Commons cities, irrigated agriculture, energy industries and the RAMSAR protected wetlands in the Ili Attribution (CC BY) license (https:// Delta [8–11]. The reliability of Ili River flows to downstream Kazakhstan and conservation creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ of Lake Balkhash, are the focal points of Sino-Kazakh hydro politics; thus far, parties have 4.0/). Water 2021, 13, 615. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13050615 https://www.mdpi.com/journal/water Water 2021, 13, 615 2 of 23 Water 2021, 13, 615 2 of 22 Lake Balkhash, are the focal points of Sino-Kazakh hydro politics; thus far, parties have notnot establishedestablished a volumetric volumetric water water allocation allocation agreement agreement [12,13]. [12,13 ].Recent Recent political political and and cli- climaticmatic changes changes fuel fuel concerns concerns over over the the future future of of Lake Lake Balkhash, as competition forfor waterwater resourcesresources betweenbetween countriescountries andand sectorssectors appearsappears toto bebe increasingincreasing [ 6[6,14,15].,14,15]. FigureFigure 1.1. MapMap ofof thethe Ili-BalkhashIli-Balkhash Basin.Basin. AtAt thethe crossroadscrossroads between between West West China China and and Central Central Asia, Asia, the the IBB IBB has has a long a long history history of tradeof trade and and (irrigated) (irrigated) agriculture agriculture [16 ].[16]. However, However, recently recently socio-economic socio-economic development development in thein the basin basin has has accelerated, accelerated, in turnin turn increasing increasing uncertainty uncertainty about about its future.its future. The The region region is re- is ceivingreceiving extensive extensive (foreign) (foreign) investment investment for infrastructure,for infrastructure, food food production production and hydropower and hydro- developmentpower development through through the Silk the Road Silk Economic Road Economic Belt (SREB), Belt (SREB), part of part the Beltof the and Belt Road and InitiativeRoad Initiative (BRI) championed (BRI) championed by China by since China 2013 since and 2013 earlier and through earlier thethrough western the develop- western mentdevelopment policies [policies17,18]. The[17,18]. $1 trillion The $1 BRI, trillion pitched BRI, aspitched a ‘win-win’ as a ‘win-win’ programme, programme, has become has contentiousbecome contentious in Central in Asia. Central Whilst Asia. embraced Whilst embraced by governments, by governments, public sentiment public sentiment perceives agriculturalperceives agricultural investments investments as land grabs. as land Though grabs. research Though shows research BRI shows investment BRI investment does not affectdoes not food affect security food in security Kazakhstan in Kazakhstan [19], widespread [19], widespread sinophobia sinophobia turns communities turns communi- against theties initiativeagainst the [20 initiative]. Here agriculture [20]. Here inagricult the aridure north-westin the arid ofnorth-west China is undergoingof China is under- rapid modernisationgoing rapid modernisation and organisational and organisational changes under changes the BRI under agenda the [18 BRI,21, 22agenda]. Between [18,21,22]. 2000 andBetween 2015, 2000 cropland and 2015, under cropland irrigation under increased irriga bytion 17% increased in the Chinese by 17% upstream in the Chinese section up- of thestream basin, section accompanied of the basin, by a markedaccompanied increase by in a water marked consumption increase in [7 water,23]. Estimates consumption sug- gest[7,23]. that Estimates agriculture suggest consumes that agriculture 90% of water consumes in the basin,90% of yet water the estimatesin the basin, of theyet extentthe es- of agricultural land use in the Chinese Ili basin are limited and vary significantly due timates of the extent of agricultural land use in the Chinese Ili basin are limited and vary to access restrictions and data limitations [7,23–25]. Therefore, discussions over planned significantly due to access restrictions and data limitations [7,23–25]. Therefore, discus- (agricultural) development for the next decades remain speculative, impeding water man- sions over planned (agricultural) development for the next decades remain speculative, agement decision-making. impeding water management decision-making. The IBB is also a climate-sensitive region. Although there are no studies on potential The IBB is also a climate-sensitive region. Although there are no studies on potential implications of global climate change for water management in the Ili basin, regional implications of global climate change for water management in the Ili basin, regional as- assessments offer some insight. Overall, climate projections from Global Circulation Mod- sessments offer some insight. Overall, climate projections from Global Circulation Models els (GCMs) predict at least 1 °C of warming by 2060 relative to 1986–2005, particularly (GCMs) predict at least 1 ℃ of warming by 2060 relative to 1986–2005, particularly in in winter [26]. Warming is already affecting the basins hydrology, with glacial melt ac- winter [26]. Warming is already affecting the basins hydrology, with glacial melt acceler- celerating and shifts to earlier meltwater peaks [27]. For precipitation, projections are lessating in and agreement shifts to and earlier GCM, meltwater IPCC regional peaks [27]. assessments, For precipitation, and studies projections in adjacent are basinsless in suggestagreement rainfall and GCM, may decrease, IPCC regional remain assessments stable or even, and slightly
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