ASEAN 2030 Toward a Borderless Economic Community ASEAN 2030 Toward a Borderless Economic Community

ASEAN 2030 Toward a Borderless Economic Community ASEAN 2030 Toward a Borderless Economic Community Asian Development Bank Institute © 2014 Asian Development Bank Institute All rights reserved. Published 2014. Printed in Japan. Printed using vegetable oil-based inks on recycled paper; manufactured through a totally chlorine-free process. ISBN 978-4-89974-051-3 (Print) ISBN 978-4-89974-052-0 (PDF) The views in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI), its Advisory Council, ADB’s Board of Governors, or the governments of ADB members. ADBI does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of their use. By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area, or by using the term “country” or other geographical names in this publication, ADBI does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area. Users are restricted from reselling, redistributing, or creating derivative works without the express, written consent of ADBI. Asian Development Bank Institute Kasumigaseki Building 8F 3-2-5, Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku Tokyo 100-6008, Japan www.adbi.org Contents List of Boxes, Figures, and Tables v Foreword ix Acknowledgments xi About the Study xiii Abbreviations xv Executive Summary xix Chapter 1: ASEAN Today 1 1.1 Evolution of Economic Cooperation 4 1.2 Global and Regional Economic Context 11 1.3 Progress of the ASEAN Economic Community and Beyond 26 Chapter 1: Appendix 40 Chapter 2: Aspirations for a “RICH” ASEAN 43 2.1 Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats 46 2.2 Ambitions and Pragmatism 54 2.3 Region-Wide Aspirations 70 Chapter 3: Key 2030 Challenges 81 3.1 Enhancing Macroeconomic and Financial Stability 86 3.2 Supporting Equitable Growth 98 3.3 Promoting Competitiveness and Innovation 111 3.4 Protecting the Environment 123 Chapter 3: Appendix 137 Chapter 4: Enabling Factors 139 4.1 Developing Financial Markets 141 4.2 Harnessing Human Capital 153 4.3 Building Seamless Connectivity 166 4.4 Strengthening Governance 174 iii Contents Chapter 5: Institutional Architecture 183 5.1 ASEAN in Asia and the World 186 5.2 ASEAN Governing Mechanisms 194 5.3 The Institutional Framework 202 Chapter 6: Policy Options 211 6.1 Macroeconomic and Financial Stability 214 6.2 Equitable and Inclusive Growth 222 6.3 Competitiveness and Innovation 230 6.4 Environmental Protection 242 6.5 Financial Market Development 248 6.6 Human Capital Development 254 6.7 Seamless Connectivity 260 6.8 Governance Issues 264 6.9 Institutional Architecture 268 6.10 Conclusion 281 Chapter 6: Appendix 282 Bibliography 285 iv List of Boxes, Figures, and Tables Boxes 1.1 Streamlining ASEAN Free Trade and Investment Agreements: The RCEP 22 1.2 Multilateralizing CLMV Preferences for Tariff Reduction 30 2.1 Impact of Regional Economic Integration on Growth 58 3.1 Increasing the Effectiveness of the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization 94 3.2 The Thai Experience with Capital Controls 98 3.3 Measuring Inequality: The Gini Coefficient 103 3.4 Growing Middle-Income Economies 107 3.5 Singapore’s Industrial Clusters—The Biopolis 118 3.6 Services Liberalization under the ASEAN Economic Community 124 3.7 The Promise of Biofuels 132 4.1 ASEAN Financial Systems and Recent Crises 146 6.1 National Policies for Macroeconomic and Financial Stability in ASEAN 216 6.2 Funds to Bridge Development Gaps in the European Union 230 6.3 ASEAN’s Tourism Potential 241 Figures 1.1 Milestones of ASEAN Economic Cooperation 5 1.2 ASEAN GDP Growth, 1992–2012 8 1.3 ASEAN and PRC: Merchandise Exports and Shares in World Trade, 1990–2012 16 1.4 Foreign Direct Investment to ASEAN and PRC, 1990–2012 16 1.5 ASEAN Trade by Economy and Region, 1992 and 2012 17 1.6 RCEP, TPP, and Other FTAs 24 v Boxes, Figures, and Tables 1.7 ASEAN Economic Community: Structural Components 26 B1.1 Exponential Growth of ASEAN Trade and Investment Agreements, 1991–2013 22 2.1 Aspirations-Challenges-Policy Options Analytical Framework 55 2.2 ASEAN GDP Growth to 2030: Aspirations vs. Negative Scenario 57 2.3 Human Development Index in ASEAN Countries 72 2.4 Selected Indicators of Quality of Life for ASEAN Countries 75 2.5 Linkages between Aspirations and Challenges 78 2.6 Effect of Economic Integration on Growth: Transmission Channels 79 B2.1 Effect of Economic Integration on Aggregate Demand and Supply 58 3.1 Distribution of ASEAN 2030 Challenges by Income Group 85 3.2 Real GDP Growth Index: Indonesia and Thailand 90 3.3 Trends of ASEAN-6 Countries’ Exchange Rates 96 3.4 Trends of CLMV Countries’ Exchange Rates 97 3.5 Reduction of Poverty in ASEAN 102 3.6 Evolution of Inequality in ASEAN 102 3.7 Technology Achievement Index in Asia, 1999 and 2008 116 3.8 Share of Parts and Components in Total Machinery and Parts Exports, 1995–2010 119 3.9 Average Annualized Growth in Value Added by Sector, 1999–2011 121 3.10 Participation in Production Networks vs. Logistics Performance Index, 2007 122 3.11 Change in Forest Areas in ASEAN, 1990–2010 127 3.12 ASEAN Primary Energy Mix 130 3.13 Urban Population Shares in ASEAN, 1990, 2010, and 2030 134 B3.1 Development Stages of an Economy 107 4.1 Development of Financial Markets in ASEAN, 2011 143 4.2 Outstanding Government and Corporate Bonds in Selected ASEAN Countries 152 4.3 ASEAN Population Growth, 1970–2030 155 4.4 Population Dependency Ratios in ASEAN, 1970–2030 158 4.5 Labor Force Participation Rates, 2012 160 4.6 Potential Roll-on/Roll-off Links in ASEAN 172 4.7 Dimensions of Governance: ASEAN and Other Asian Countries, 2011 176 5.1 ASEAN Centrality: Major Groups Focused on ASEAN 190 5.2 ASEAN Centrality: Major Transregional Groups Involving ASEAN Countries 191 6.1 Average Expenditure on Research and Development 227 A6.1 Distribution of Selected Indicators across ASEAN Countries 283 vi Boxes, Figures, and Tables Tables 1.1 Selected Indicators for ASEAN and Other Asian Economies, 2012 12 1.2 Status of ASEAN Free Trade Agreements 18 1.3 ASEAN Economic Community Implementation Progress 28 1.4 Summary of ASEAN+1 Comprehensive Economic Partnerships and Free Trade Agreements 35 A1.1 Status of ASEAN Free Trade Agreements 40 B1.1 RCEP’s Structural Components 23 2.1 ASEAN SWOT Diagram 47 2.2 ASEAN 2030 Projections and Aspiration Targets 62 2.3 Dimensions and Indicators of Quality of Life 73 2.4 ASEAN “RICH” Concept 77 3.1 ASEAN 2030 Challenges by Country 84 3.2 ASEAN Trade with Selected Countries and Regions 87 3.3 Foreign Direct Investment to ASEAN, 1996–2012 88 3.4 ASEAN-5 Countries’ Total Portfolio Investment 89 3.5 Vulnerability Indicators for ASEAN Countries 91 3.6 ASEAN Income Gaps 101 3.7 Status of Millennium Development Goals Attainments in ASEAN Countries, 2013 104 3.8 Expenditures on Education and Health, 2011 105 3.9 ODA from ASEAN-6 to CLMV Countries 109 3.10 ASEAN Competitiveness Fundamentals, 2013 114 3.11 Water Quality Status in Selected ASEAN Countries 126 3.12 ASEAN Forest and Wooded Land Area 127 3.13 Greenhouse Gas Emissions in ASEAN 128 3.14 Primary Energy Forms in ASEAN, 2007 and 2030 133 A3.1 Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Selected Countries 137 B3.1 CMIM Financial Contributions, Borrowing Arrangements, and Voting Power 94 4.1 Features of the Commercial Banking Sector 144 4.2 Branches and Subsidiaries of Selected Commercial Banks in ASEAN 148 4.3 Insurance Companies by Ownership 150 4.4 Selected Social Indicators in ASEAN 156 4.5 Educational Attainment in Selected ASEAN Countries 159 4.6 ASEAN Community Pillars and Labor Issues 162 4.7 Labor Migration Statistics in ASEAN, 2010 164 4.8 Infrastructure Index for ASEAN Countries 167 vii Boxes, Figures, and Tables 4.9 Oil Prices and Travel Cost in Selected ASEAN Cities 174 4.10 Indicators of Economic Freedom, 2013 180 5.1 Institutional Bodies and Ministerial Meetings Forming the ASEAN Community 198 5.2 ASEAN Political-Security Community (APSC) Blueprint 204 5.3 ASEAN Socio-Cultural Community (ASCC) Blueprint 205 5.4 List of ASEAN-Related Centers, Business Organizations, and Other Bodies 208 6.1 National Policy Options to Enhance Macroeconomic and Financial Stability 218 6.2 National Policy Options to Support Equitable Growth 224 6.3 National Policy Options to Promote Competitiveness and Innovation 232 6.4 National Policy Options to Protect the Environment 244 6.5 National Policy Options to Harness Human Capital 258 6.6 National Policy Options to Develop Economic Infrastructure 262 6.7 National Policy Options to Strengthen Governance and Institutions 266 6.8 Comparison of Salary Structures: ASEAN Secretariat vis-à-vis the United Nations 274 6.9 Estimated ASEAN Secretariat Budget in 2020 and 2030 275 6.10 List of Proposed Functional Institutions 278 A6.1 ASEAN Countries’ Shares of Selected Economic Variables 282 viii Foreword or the last 47 years, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has been an integral part of Asia’s ongoing socio-political and economic transformation and remains an example for other regional groups of how carefully crafted cooperation can benefit all members—even if extremely diverse in size, geography, culture, Fincome level, and resource endowment. Today, ASEAN needs to think how to move to new stages of integration. As it approaches the target for the creation of an ASEAN Economic Community by the end of 2015, it will find merit in forging a longer term strategy for shared prosperity of its members, the wider Asian region, and the world at large.

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