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The Process of Change in the Foreign Policy of Jordan: the Role of the Leadership in the Cases of the 1991 Gulf War and the 2003 Iraq War

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The Process of Change in the Foreign Policy of Jordan: the Role of the Leadership in the Cases of the 1991 Gulf War and the 2003 Iraq War THE PROCESS OF CHANGE IN THE FOREIGN POLICY OF JORDAN: THE ROLE OF THE LEADERSHIP IN THE CASES OF THE 1991 GULF WAR AND THE 2003 IRAQ WAR A THESIS SUBMITTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL OF SOCIAL SCIENCES OF MIDDLE EAST TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY BY BASEL A. AL KAYED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY IN INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS NOVEMBER 2015 Approval of The Graduate School of Social Sciences _________________________ Prof. Dr. Meliha B. Altunışık Director I certify that this thesis satisfies all the requirements as a thesis for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy _________________________ Prof. Dr. Özlem Tür Head of Department This is to certify that I have read this thesis and that in my opinion it is fully adequate, in scope and quality, as a thesis for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy. _________________________ Prof. Dr. Meliha B. Altunışık Supervisor Examining Committee Members Prof. Dr. Atilla ERALP (METU, IR) _________________________ Prof. Dr. Meliha B. Altunışık (METU, IR) _________________________ Prof. Dr. Özlem Tür (METU, IR) _________________________ Assoc. Prof. Dr. Kürşad Turan (Gazi, IR) _________________________ Assoc. Prof. Dr. Haldun Yalçinkaya (TOBB, IR) _________________________ I hereby declare that all information in this document has been obtained and presented in accordance with academic rules and ethical conduct. I also declare that, as required by these rules and conduct, I have fully cited and referenced all material and results that are not original to this work. Name, Last name : Basel Al Kayed Signature : iii ABSTRACT THE PROCESS OF CHANGE IN THE FOREIGN POLICY OF JORDAN: THE ROLE OF THE LEADERSHIP IN THE CASES OF THE 1991 GULF WAR AND THE 2003 IRAQ WAR Al Kayed, Basel Ph.D., Department of International Relations Supervisor: Prof. Dr. Meliha B. Altunışık November 2015, 256 This study aims to analyze the differences between the Jordanian foreign policy response to the two US-led wars against Iraq: the 1991 Gulf War and the 2003 War on Iraq. The two monarchs of Jordan during this time, Hussein and Abdullah II, held very different foreign policy positions in the two wars, and the main subject of this dissertation is to question why. It is striking to compare how King Hussein aligned himself with Iraq against the US-led international coalition in 1991, whereas in 2003, King Abdullah decided to align with the US. Both monarchs of Jordan have had to consider domestic dynamics when responding to external influences. This, in turn, has led to changes in foreign policy choices which affected the outcomes of the two wars. Within the framework of this study, I have aimed to analyze the importance the change in foreign priorities between the two monarchs in the two wars through using a neoclassical realist approach. The purpose of this work is to contribute further to the existing literature on foreign policy change, with a reasonable explanation for the shifting foreign policy of the two iv monarchs of Jordan, benefiting from the multi-dimensional neoclassical realist approach. Drawing on the neoclassical realist viewpoint, this thesis argues that the different foreign policy choices of the two monarchs cannot be entirely understood through a sole focus on external structural variables. Moreover, it defends the neoclassical realist perspective that the foreign policy decisions of Jordan can be explained through an examination of domestic concerns and the role of the monarch as the chief foreign policy maker in filtering those concerns while responding to external pressures, which were imposed mainly by the US throughout these two wars. Keywords: Foreign Policy Change, Neoclassical Realism, Gulf War 1991, 2003 Iraq War, the role of the leadership. v ÖZ ÜRDÜN’ÜN DIŞ POLİTİKASINDAKİ DEĞİŞİM SÜRECİ: 1991 KÖRFEZ SAVAŞI VE 2003 IRAK SAVAŞINDA LİDERLİĞİN ROLÜ Al Kayed, Basel Doktora, Uluslararası İlişkiler Bölümü Tez Yöneticisi: Prof. Dr. Meliha B. Altunışık November 2015, 256 Bu çalışma, 1991 Körfez Savaşı ve 2003 Irak Savaşı sırasında Ürdün’ün dış politikalarındaki değişimi analiz etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Ürdün’ün iki kralı Kral Hüseyin ve Kral 2. Abdullah bu iki savaşta oldukça farklı politikalar benimsemişlerdir. Bu tezin amacı bu farklılığı analiz etmektir. Kral Hüseyin 1991’de Bağdat’a karşı ABD önderliğinde kurulan koalisyonda yer almayıp Irak’ın yanında yer alırken, 2003’teki savaşta Kral Abdullah Amerika’nın yanında yer almış. Her iki kral da dış etkilere cevap verirken iç dinamikleri de düşünmüşlerdir. Bu durum, yaşanan bu iki savaşta yapılan dış politika seçimlerinin ve sonuçların değişmesine neden olmuştur. Bu çalışmada, iç politikaların önemi ve Irak’a karşı yürütülen iki savaşta Ürdün’ün dış politikasında görülen değişim sürecinde liderliğin rolü analiz edilmeye çalışılmıştır. Çalışma, Neoklasik Realizm yaklaşımından hareketle iki savaşta iki kralın dış politika seçimlerindeki değişimi incelemektedir. Burada amaç, Neoklasik Realizmin çok yönlü yaklaşımından faydalanarak ve Ürdün’ün iki kralının değişen dış vi politikaları için mantıklı bir açıklama sağlayarak dış politika değişimi konusunda mevcut literatüre katkı sağlamaktır. Bu tez, Neoklasik Realist bakış açısından yararlanarak, iki savaşta iki Ürdün kralının dış politika seçimlerindeki değişimin sadece yapısal dış değişkenlere odaklanarak tam olarak anlaşılamayacağını savunmaktadır. Bu çalışmanın temel aldığı kuramsal yaklaşıma göre, Ürdün’ün dış politikası, iç endişeler araştırılarak açıklanabilir. Ayrıca, dış politikayı açıklayabilmek için iki savaşta Amerika’nın empoze ettiği dış baskılara cevap vererek ve iç endişeleri filtreleyerek dış politikayı belirleyen kralların rolü de araştırılmalıdır. Anahtar kelimeler: Dış Politikada Değişim Neoklasik Realizm, 1991 Körfez Savaşı, 2003 Irak Savaşı, liderliğin rolü. vii In loving memory of My late mother Hajer Al Kayed and My late Father Akram Al Kayed viii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This dissertation would not have been possible without the contributions of many people who provided me with support throughout my graduate studies. I am grateful to those who enabled me to move ahead and motivated me to accomplish this project. First of all, I would like to extend my heartfelt gratitude to my late mother; Hajer Al Kayed, who taught me the love of learning. Your pure prayers during your life provided me with endless encouragement; God bless your soul. I would like to express my gratitude to my dear wife, Jihen Al Kayed; who is always beside me and has shared my dream: thank you for taking care of my gorgeous baby Hajer while I was busy with my educational journey. I owe much to my lovely beloved angel, baby Hajer, who has inspired me and made me very happy, God bless you my angel, and my sweet step-daughter Dinemis. I would like to express my deep heartfelt thanks, appreciation and admiration to my outstanding adviser and committee chair, Professor Dr. Meliha B. Altunışık, who has guided me to completing this dissertation. I have shared many ideas with you along the way. Your sound advice, insight and unfailing support and enthusiasm has bolstered me throughout this project; I give sincere thanks for your advice, guidance and positive criticism, and for your in-depth and detailed reading. I owe you a deep debt of gratitude Hocam for being patient and understanding of my personal situation and my work circumstances. You provided me with endless encouragement and motivated me to accomplish this work. It would have been next to impossible to complete my PhD without your genuine assistance, and I wouldn't be where I am today. I also wish to thank my esteemed dissertation committee members: our distinguished Professor Dr. Atilla Eralp, for his insightful and outstanding classes in ix IR theory; Prof. Dr. Özlem Tür, many thanks for your assistance during my Ph.D. Education; Assoc. Prof. Dr. Kürşad Turan from Gazi University, and Assoc. Prof. Dr. Haldun Yalçinkaya from TOBB ETÜ University, for being members of my thesis committee. To all of you, dear Professors, I owe many thanks for your genuinely helpful feedback and your positive role over the development and course of this dissertation. I owe the biggest debt to the Great Republic of Turkey, the country I adore: my deep gratitude and gratefulness for granting me a scholarship and giving me the opportunity to get a PhD degree in International Relations from a university as distinguished and esteemed as METU. Turkey is the country where I have spent the most beautiful five years of my life. I would like to extend my appreciation to his H.E. Prof. Dr. Ahmet Acar, President of METU. I had the honor to work directly with him - in my previous capacity as General Consul and Cultural Counselor of Jordan to Turkey - on issues related to higher education between Turkey and Jordan, and METU Cyprus Campus. I would like to extend my admiration and gratefulness to Prof Dr. Acar and his esteemed wife professor Dr. Feride Acar for their great contribution during their teaching journey at Yarmouk University in Jordan. God bless METU. God bless Great Turkey. God bless the soul of Great Ataturk. Special thanks to my family in Jordan, my dear brother Ehsan and my beloved sisters Majeda, Enas and Suhair, my brother-in-law Osama, my niece Maysam, my nephews Mohamad and Qutaiba, who kept telling how much they are proud of me, and my father and mother- in-law Ibrahim and Munira. I would like to thank my brother and colleague Rasheed Oraikat, for hıs good friendship in Turkey and ın this beautiful university. I would like to thank my friends and colleagues, Their Excellences the Ambassadors: Amjad Adaileh, Ambassador of Jordan in Ankara, MFA Secretary General Ambassador Mohammad Taisir Masadeh, Ambassadors: Mohammad Al Qur'an, Dr. Ali Kuraishan and Musa Karadsheh at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Expatriate Affairs for providing assistance when needed. x Special thanks to all members of the International Relations Department at METU, in particular, our esteemed Prof. Dr. Nuri Yurdusev and my dear colleague Aslıgül Sarıkamış, to IR Department Chair Prof.
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