The Cases of Egyptian-Israeli and Jordanian-Israeli Peace Processes
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EXPLAINING COLD PEACE IN THE MIDDLE EAST: THE CASES OF EGYPTIAN-ISRAELI AND JORDANIAN-ISRAELI PEACE PROCESSES THESIS SUBMITTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL OF SOCIAL SCIENCES OF MIDDLE EAST TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY BY ZEYNEP SÜTALAN IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY IN INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS JANUARY 2015 1 Approval of the Graduate School of Social Sciences Prof. Dr. Meliha Altunışık Director I certify that this thesis satisfies all the requirements as a thesis for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy. Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı Head of Department This is to certify that we have read this thesis and that in our opinion it is fully adequate, in scope and quality, as a thesis for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy. Prof. Dr. Özlem Tür Supervisor Examining Committee Members Prof. Dr. Meliha Altunışık (METU, IR) Prof. Dr. Özlem Tür (METU, IR) Prof. Dr. Faruk Yalvaç (METU, IR) Prof. Dr. İlhan Uzgel (AU, SBF) Assoc. Prof. Dr. İlker Aytürk (BILKENT, POLS) 1 PLAGIARISM I hereby declare that all information in this document has been obtained and presented in accordance with academic rules and ethical conduct. I also declare that, as required by these rules and conduct, I have fully cited and referenced all material and results that are not original to this work. Name, Last name : Zeynep Sütalan Signature : iii ABSTRACT EXPLAINING COLD PEACE IN THE MIDDLE EAST: THE CASES OF EGYPTIAN-ISRAELI AND JORDANIAN-ISRAELI PEACE PROCESSES Sütalan, Zeynep Ph.D., Department of International Relations Supervisor: Prof. Dr. Özlem Tür January 2015, 337 pages This thesis analyzes the Egyptian-Israeli and Jordanian-Israeli peace processes in terms of peace-making, the nature of the peace treaties, and peace-sustaining from the Arab perspective. These peace processes have not gone much further than ‘cold peace’ dashing the hopes for a ‘real peace’ in the region. This thesis argues that the ‘cold peace’ phenomenon evident in the cases of Egyptian-Israeli and Jordanian-Israeli peace processes is the reflection of the autonomy of the state since the authoritarian state structure provides these states with the capacity to act at the expense of the societal forces in the domestic context. In this respect, this thesis highlights ‘domestic state autonomy’ and ‘regional state autonomy’ as enabling factors both in the peacemaking and peace-sustaining processes. Although Jordan enjoys more limited domestic state autonomy when compared with Egypt, both of the states were endowed with enough autonomy which enabled them to make peace with Israel at the expense of their people iv regardless of the efforts by the Egyptian and Jordanian state to sell the decision of making peace with Israel by propagating the peace dividends. The stalled peace-building processes in the Egyptian and Jordanian cases due to the unachieved normalization of relations with Israel display the fragility of the peace processes. However, these two peace treaties are still valid regardless of the political confrontation between the parties, the prevalent anti-Israeli public opinion, and the anti- normalization campaigns, because sustaining peace with Israel has become a foreign policy orientation and thus a part of regime maintenance policies in both of the two cases. KEYWORDS: Cold Peace, Egypt, Jordan, Peace Process, State Autonomy. v ÖZ ORTADOĞU’DA SOĞUK BARIŞI AÇIKLAMAK: MISIR-İSRAİL VE ÜRDÜN-İSRAİL BARIŞ SÜREÇLERİ ÖRNEKLERİ Sütalan, Zeynep Doktora, Uluslararası İlişkiler Bölümü Danışman: Prof. Dr. Özlem Tür Ocak 2015, 337 sayfa Bu tez, Mısır-İsrail ve Ürdün-İsrail barış süreçlerini, Arap bakış açısından, barış yapımı, anlaşmaların içeriği ve barışın devamlılığı üzerinden analiz etmektedir. Bu iki barış süreci de bölgede ‘gerçek barış’a yönelik umutları boşa çıkararak ‘soğuk barış’tan öteye gidememiştir. Bu bağlamda, bu tez, Mısır-İsrail ve Ürdün-İsrail barış süreçlerinde görülen ‘soğuk barış’ kavramının devletin otonomisinin bir yansıması olduğunu ileri sürmektedir. Zira söz konusu ülkelerin otoriter yapısı, devlete iç bağlamda toplumsal güçler pahasına hareket etme kapasitesi sağlamaktadır. Bu nedenle, tezde ‘devletin içsel otonomisi’ ve ‘devletin bölgesel otonomisi’ kavramları, barış yapımı ve barışın devamlılığı süreçlerini imkânlı kılan faktörler olarak vurgulamaktadır. Ürdün’de devletin içsel otonomisi Mısır’a kıyasla daha sınırlıdır, ancak her iki devlet de İsrail ile barış imzalama kararlarını halklarının gözünde kabul edilebilir kılmak maksadıyla yaptıkları ‘barış primi’ propagandasından bağımsız olarak, halklarına rağmen barış yapabilmelerine imkân sağlayacak kadar otonomiyi haizdir. vi Her iki örnekte de İsrail ile ilişkilerin normalleşememesinden ötürü sekteye uğradığı görülen barış inşasına dair tecrübeler, aslında barış süreçlerinin ne kadar kırılgan olduğunu göstermektedir. Öte yandan, İsrail’le yapılmış olan bu iki barış anlaşması da taraflar arasındaki siyasi anlaşmazlıklara, mevcut İsrail karşıtı kamuoyuna ve normalleşme karşıtı kampanyalara rağmen geçerliliğini korumaktadır, çünkü İsrail ile barışın devamı, her iki örnekte de, bir dış politika yönelimi ve dolayısıyla rejimin devamlılığı politikalarının bir parçası haline gelmiştir. Anahter Kelimeler: Barış Süreci, Devlet Otonomisi, Mısır, Soğuk Barış, Ürdün. vii DEDICATION To My Parents and Sister viii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I would like to express my deepest gratitude to my distinguished advisor Prof. Dr. Özlem Tür for her guidance, advices and feedback while I was writing this thesis. I would also like to express my cordial thanks to the examining committee members, Prof. Dr. Meliha Altunışık, Prof. Dr. Faruk Yalvaç, Prof. Dr. İhan Uzgel and Assoc. Prof. Dr. İlker Aytürk for their invaluable criticisms and contributions. I would also like to express my special thanks to TÜBİTAK Scholarship Program for the generous financial support they provided me during my doctoral education. I am grateful to my beloved parents, Meliha Sütalan and Ali Mehmet Sütalan as well as my sister Ülgen Sütalan for the sacrifices they made for me to complete my doctoral education and it is also worth mentioning that they never gave up encouraging and believing in me. My dear friends, Selvi and Kerem Kahraman, Pınar Arıkan and Bayram Sinkaya deserve my all love for their endless support and encouragement. I also would like to thank my friends, İlhan Sağsen and Hakan Karaaslan, for sharing the burden of writing a thesis especially through the discussions during the coffee breaks. Last, but not the least, I would like to thank Uğur Bayıllıoğlu for his understanding and support during the long process of writing this thesis. ix TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS PLAGIARISM ................................................................................................................. iii ABSTRACT ...................................................................................................................... iv ÖZ ..................................................................................................................................... vi DEDICATION ............................................................................................................... viii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ................................................................................................ ix TABLE OF CONTENTS ................................................................................................... x LIST OF TABLES .......................................................................................................... xiv LIST OF FIGURES ......................................................................................................... xv LIST OF ABBREVATIONS .......................................................................................... xvi CHAPTER ......................................................................................................................... 1 1. INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................... 1 1.1. STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM .................................................................... 3 1.2. THE ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK .................................................................. 7 1.2.1. THE NOTION OF COLD PEACE ................................................................... 7 1.2.2. DOMESTIC STATE AUTONOMY AND REGIONAL STATE AUTONOMY ........................................................................................................... 19 1.3. RESEARCH DATA ............................................................................................. 30 1.4. THE CONTENT ................................................................................................... 31 2. THE EGYPTIAN STATE AND ITS FOREIGN POLICY ...................................... 34 2.1. STATE FORMATION IN EGYPT ...................................................................... 35 2.2. THE NATURE OF STATE IN EGYPT .............................................................. 40 2.2.1. STATE CAPACITY ....................................................................................... 43 2.2.2. DOMESTIC STATE AUTONOMY .............................................................. 47 2.2.3. REGIONAL STATE AUTONOMY .............................................................. 51 2.2.4. STATE IDEOLOGY ...................................................................................... 52 2.3. THE FOREIGN POLICY DECISION-MAKING IN EGYPT ............................ 65 x 2.4. PRESIDENT AND THE ELITES