YEMEN – STILL IN CRISIS

Evan Wolmer The Eurasia Center

Houthis protest America’s designation of Houthis as a foreign 'terrorist' organization (Khaled Abdullah/Reuters)

Background:

Since 2011, ’s civil war has led to massive humanitarian disaster. After President resigned in the wake of protests following the Revolt in 2011, his vice president took charge. From 2012 to 2014 Hadi’s government struggled to unite the fractious nation, plagued by both Al Qaeda and Houthi militants. In 2014, the Houthi rebels moved south and captured Yemen’s capital along with the majority of western Yemen. President Hadi was forced to resign, but he declared himself the rightful and legitimate leader of Yemen after he found refuge in . In 2015, a Saudi- led coalition began an air assault on Houthi-controlled territory in Yemen, backing president Hadi. In the ensuing years, fighting has continued, producing humanitarian disaster.

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Yemen can be analyzed as a proxy war between and Saudi Arabia and United States. The , which is based on the Zaydi Shia religious sect of Islam is backed by Iran. President Hadi and the UN-backed government, which is predominantly Sunni, is backed by Saudi Arabia, the , and the United States. Saudi Arabia is wary of a powerful enemy to its south, which is backed by Iran, forcing Saudi Arabia to blockade and attempt to stop the Houthis. Moreover, the United States is wary of an Iran ally gaining access to the strategically crucial Bab-el- Mandeb strait, where 6.2 million barrels of oil are transported through each day.

Peace talks on solving the Yemen crisis have stalled in the past and there is no simple solution. The former Trump Administration repeatedly vetoed bills that would preclude weapons sales to Saudi Arabia. The US conducted over 180 airstrikes against Yemen and designated the Houthis as a terrorist group. President Joseph Biden delivered his first major foreign policy address on February 5, 2021 and announced that the United States would no longer support the Saudi war with Yemen. He stated, “The war in Yemen must end.” With a Biden administration ready to change how the United States conducts its foreign policy, there is hope for a solution. Achieving peace between bitter rivals will be monumental but this is a big challenge. President Biden and Secretary of State Antony Blinken also reversed course on the Houthi terrorist label, as the State Department revoked the designation on February 5, 2021. It has halted arms sales to Saudi Arabia, and potentially will adopt the UN-mediated framework for a peace deal.

Malnourished baby held by Nurse in al-Sabeen hospital in Sanaa, Yemen October 2020 Photo Khaled Abdullah/Reuters

The Saudi-led bombing campaign and civil war have led to an unimaginable crisis where cholera, Covid-19, and famine threatening almost every individual in Yemen. A majority of Yemenis have little or no access to education, sanitation, and clean water. Yemen’s health system and the infrastructure have been devastated as well making a quick recovery unlikely. The Saudi-led has only continued to worsen the situation. The ’ Office of the Coordination of Humanitarian Assistance estimates that there are:

• 24 million people in need of assistance • 100,000 casualties to date in the Yemen conflict • 133,000 casualties from indirect causes like famine, disease and sanitation • 4 million estimated number of displaced people.

The Biden administration will have to contend with troubling new developments in the crisis. A recent UN report reveals that Houthi rebels appropriated billions of dollars meant to aid distressed Yemenis that would have provided basic government services. The Yemeni government is culpable as well: it diverted millions of dollars from Saudi Arabia, meant to buy food and other essentials for Yemeni citizens. Amid the scramble for funds, Houthi rebels have gained territorial ground. Without a breakthrough, Yemen faces a worsening quagmire and bleaker prospects for its citizens and its future.