Downloaded 10/06/21 09:49 PM UTC 478 JOURNAL of the ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES VOLUME 68
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
MARCH 2011 F I E R R O A N D R E I S N E R 477 High-Resolution Simulation of the Electrification and Lightning of Hurricane Rita during the Period of Rapid Intensification ALEXANDRE O. FIERRO Earth and Environmental Sciences Division/Space and Remote Sensing Group, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico JON M. REISNER Earth and Environmental Sciences Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico (Manuscript received 31 August 2010, in final form 15 November 2010) ABSTRACT In this paper, a high-resolution simulation establishing relationships between lightning and eyewall con- vection during the rapid intensification phase of Rita will be highlighted. The simulation is an attempt to relate simulated lightning activity within strong convective events (CEs) found within the eyewall and general storm properties for a case from which high-fidelity lightning observations are available. Specifically, the analysis focuses on two electrically active eyewall CEs that had properties similar to events observed by the Los Alamos Sferic Array. The numerically simulated CEs were characterized by updraft speeds exceeding 10 m s21, a relatively more frequent flash rate confined in a layer between 10 and 14 km, and a propagation speed that was about 10 m s21 less than of the local azimuthal flow in the eyewall. Within an hour of the first CE, the simulated minimum surface pressure dropped by approximately 5 mb. Concurrent with the pulse of vertical motions was a large uptake in lightning activity. This modeled relationship between enhanced vertical motions, a noticeable pressure drop, and heightened lightning activity suggests the utility of using lightning to remotely diagnose future changes in intensity of some tropical cyclones. Furthermore, given that the model can relate lightning activity to latent heat release, this functional relationship, once validated against a derived field produced by dual-Doppler radar data, could be used in the future to initialize eyewall convection via the introduction of latent heat and/or water vapor into a hurricane model. 1. Introduction and background on hurricane making landfall, hurricanes1 undergo rapid intensifi- electrification cation (RI), which is defined as any hurricane showing a 30 kt (or more) increase in 10-m maximum sustained Tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the most destructive wind speed in a 24-h period or less (Kaplan and DeMaria natural forces on the earth and many coastal commu- 2003). nities worldwide are threatened yearly by these extreme Though many recent observational studies (e.g., events. Hence, it is vital to advance our knowledge on Molinari et al. 1994, 1999; Price et al. 2009) have revealed the internal and external dynamical processes governing that rapidly intensifying hurricanes occasionally produce their evolution and especially their intensity, which is abundant eyewall lightning activity, only one highly ide- currently poorly forecast (e.g., Davis et al. 2008). This alized study, Fierro et al. (2007, hereafter F07), so far knowledge becomes especially critical when, before focused on modeling hurricane electrification. This work improves upon F07 by simulating Hurricane Rita (2005), Corresponding author address: Alexandre O. Fierro, Cooper- a hurricane that produced frequent eyewall lightning ative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies, National Weather Center, Suite 2100, 120 David L. Boren Blvd., Norman, OK 73072. 1 The terms ‘‘hurricanes’’ and ‘‘tropical cyclones’’ will be used E-mail: afi[email protected] interchangeably throughout this paper. DOI: 10.1175/2010JAS3659.1 Ó 2011 American Meteorological Society Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/06/21 09:49 PM UTC 478 JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES VOLUME 68 (e.g., Hurricane Isabel 2003) were shown to produce little lightning in the eyewall (Molinari et al. 1999; Demetriades and Holle 2005). Price et al. (2009) analyzed the cloud-to- ground (CG) lightning flash rate of 56 tropical cyclones around the globe using the World Wide Lightning Loca- tion Network (WWLLN; Jacobson et al. 2006; Lay et al. 2007), with their study revealing a strong correlation be- tween hurricane intensification rate and CG lightning ac- tivity. Furthermore, Cecil and Zipser (1999) found that a temporal lag existed between the production of ice scat- tering signature (proportional to convective intensity and lightning production) and the TC intensifying. Therefore, FIG. 1. (left) Horizontal projection of narrow bipolar events they also argued that lightning activity could be used as a (NBEs) with the time of observation specified at the top. The flashes reliable forecast tool as any changes in lightning frequency were color coded in time for each event, where blue represents early in time and red represents later in time. The circle shows the esti- were likely associated with future changes in the intensity mated location and size of the eye of Rita based on NHC best-track of a given TC. data. (right) Corresponding evolution of the heights of the NBE Because electrical activity is relatively infrequent within discharges. (Figure adapted from F11 and used with permission.) the eyewall, lightning associated with the convective bursts are easily observed by detection networks such as activity during its intensification cycle and from which LASA. Eyewall updrafts are too weak in the mixed phase very good lightning observations are available from a region to allow sufficient production and lofting of grau- broad array of platforms (Shao et al. 2005; Squires and pel particles and supercooled water (Black 1984; Black Businger 2008; Solorzano et al. 2008; Fierro et al. 2011, and Hallett 1986) that are necessary for the generation of hereafter F11). By comparing the simulated lightning be- strong electric fields via the noninductive charging process havior with available three-dimensional lightning obser- (Takahashi 1978; Saunders et al. 1991; Saunders and Peck vations from the Los Alamos Sferic Array (LASA; F11), 1998, hereafter SP98). For example, Black et al. (1996) this work provides hypotheses on the evolution of the found that 70% of the eyewall vertical velocities from microphysical/convective state of the hurricane as its in- seven Atlantic hurricanes ranged between 22and2 m s21 tensity changes. In particular, the work of F11, which is the with only about 5% of vertical motions exceeding 5 m s21. first presenting three-dimensional flash data within a hur- Stronger and wider updrafts capable of producing no- ricane, shows that during the period of rapid intensifica- table lightning bursts, such as those reported in F11, are tion, Rita produced several episodic and isolated lightning rare, except in some hurricanes undergoing rapid inten- bursts that rotated around the eyewall at a speed within sification: for example, Black et al. (1994) reported up- 10% to that of the local azimuthal flow (see Fig. 1 for an draft (downdraft) speeds reaching 24 (219) m s21 in example of those events) and had a life time between 15 Hurricane Emily (1987) during its deepening phase. and 25 min. Other examples of deep convective updrafts within TC Besides F11, many studies reported that the occurrence undergoing RI are documented in Eastin et al. (2005a,b) of lightning bursts near the TC center was often associated for Hurricane Guillermo (1997) and in Guimond et al. with intensification of the system and that these episodic (2010) for Hurricane Dennis (2005). lightning bursts were associated with deep convection This modeling study builds upon the observational (e.g., Lyons et al. 1989; Black et al. 1993; Lyons and Keen work of F11 by relating modeled lightning to key prop- 1994; Simpson et al. 1998; Rodgers et al. 2000; Heymsfield erties of the eyewall convection with focus on convective et al. 2001). Consistent with this, Kelley et al. (2004) events (CEs) and attempts to address questions that could suggested that extremely deep eyewall clouds (most likely not be easily answered by the observations. In this work, to produce lightning) observed via the Tropical Rainfall a CE is defined as an isolated convective entity in the Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite in the eyewall were eyewall characterized by the following: 1) an instanta- coincident with a 70% likelihood of storm intensification. neous updraft speed greater than 10 m s21 anywhere It is also well recognized that RI often relies on the oc- above the freezing level, 2) a minimum depth of the currence of small-scale hard-to-forecast convective bursts 7ms21 isosurface of 5 km, 3) minimum horizontal di- (e.g., Steranka et al. 1986; Rodgers et al. 1998, 2000; mensions of 10 km 3 10 km, and 4) a minimum lifetime Reasor et al. 2009; Guimond et al. 2010) in the eyewall of of 15 min. The questions to be addressed include the the hurricane. In contrast to hurricanes undergoing RI, following: how strong is the convection within the mod- strong mature hurricanes remaining in a quasi–steady state eled CEs? How frequent are these events? What is their Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/06/21 09:49 PM UTC MARCH 2011 F I E R R O A N D R E I S N E R 479 microphysical and electrical structure and in turn how do Mansell et al. (2005), which was adapted from Ziegler et al. these structures differ from that of the bulk of the eyewall (1991). Lightning initiation/discharge in the model occurs convection? How much latent heat is being released whenever the ambient electric field exceeds the breakeven within the simulated CEs? Note that the latter question is (or fair weather) electric field threshold, which was as- important with regard to relating observed lightning sumed to decrease exponentially with height, as in Mansell withinCEstoaquantitythatcanbeusedtoinitializeCEs et al. (2002), with the electric field and space charge den- within a model. Furthermore, though at least 4 distinct sities being decreased by a constant value of 10% through CEs were observed by LASA during a 24-h period, this the column upon discharge.