Characteristics of Hurricane Lili's Intensity Changes Adele Marie Babin Louisiana State University and Agricultural and Mechanical College, [email protected]
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Louisiana State University LSU Digital Commons LSU Master's Theses Graduate School 2004 Characteristics of Hurricane Lili's intensity changes Adele Marie Babin Louisiana State University and Agricultural and Mechanical College, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.lsu.edu/gradschool_theses Part of the Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons Recommended Citation Babin, Adele Marie, "Characteristics of Hurricane Lili's intensity changes" (2004). LSU Master's Theses. 498. https://digitalcommons.lsu.edu/gradschool_theses/498 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Graduate School at LSU Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in LSU Master's Theses by an authorized graduate school editor of LSU Digital Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. CHARACTERISTICS OF HURRICANE LILI’S INTENSITY CHANGES A Thesis Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of the Louisiana State University and Agricultural and Mechanical College In partial fulfillment of the Requirements for the degree of Master of Natural Sciences in The Interdepartmental Program in Natural Sciences by Adele Marie Babin B.S. Louisiana State University, 1995 December 2004 DEDICATION I dedicate this research first and foremost to my mother Jane Alice Head Babin who passed before its completion, but her encouragement and inspiration motivated me onward. I also wish to dedicate the manuscript to my immediate family members: Father- Alfred Mark Babin Sister- Christa Babin Marshall, and husband Robert Andrew Marshall Brother- Dane Mark Babin, and wife Rachel Gros Babin and Grandmother: Mabel Babin Clement. ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I extend my deepest gratitude to Dr. S.A. Hsu for his patience, understanding, and spur of the moment hallway conversations where he shared his vast knowledge. I owe a debt of gratitude to Dr. Nan Walker and Dr. Barry Keim for their excellent advice on the research and manuscript development. Dr. Walker and the entire Earth Scan Laboratory staff are especially recognized for excellent data programming, data archiving, and tolerance of special circumstances during the writing stage of this manuscript. Dr. Oscar K. Huh, retired professor and ESL Director Emeritus, is profusely thanked for his moral and work ethic example which guided me into the world of science. The remainder of the faculty and staff at Coastal Studies Institute are acknowledged for the little things and providing a stimulating research environment. Personally, I would like to recognize all of my family who each helped me with confidence and determination through the rough patches of life. Also, I must thank Noell, Margit, and Nola Lee without whose support this research would never have been completed. Dr. Greg Stone and Dr. X.P. Zhang are thanked for sharing the WAVCIS data. Appreciation goes out to Dr. Bob Leben for compiling and sharing the satellite altimeter data. iii TABLE OF CONTENTS DEDICATION................................................................................................................................ ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...........................................................................................................iii ABSTRACT................................................................................................................................... vi CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................ 1 1 Introduction..................................................................................................................... 1 2 Background Information................................................................................................. 2 a. Hurricane Lili............................................................................................................ 2 b. Tropical Storm Isidore .............................................................................................. 2 2 A CLIMATOLOGY OF RAPID AND EXPLOSIVE PRESSURE CHANGES IN HURRICANES ............................................................................................................... 5 1 Introduction..................................................................................................................... 5 2 Literature Review............................................................................................................5 3 Data and Methods ........................................................................................................... 7 4 Results........................................................................................................................... 10 a. Pressure Climatology by Type................................................................................ 10 b. Saffir-Simpson Category Analysis ......................................................................... 27 c. Comparison to Hurricane Lili (2002)...................................................................... 29 5 Summary and Conclusions ........................................................................................... 31 3 RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN LILI'S INTENSITY CHANGES AND SATELLITE MEASURED ATMOSPHERIC WATER VAPOR...................................................... 35 1 Introduction................................................................................................................... 35 2 Literature Review.......................................................................................................... 35 3 Data and Methods ......................................................................................................... 37 4 Results........................................................................................................................... 41 a. Trends in the Time Series ....................................................................................... 41 b. 6 Hour Intensity Phases .......................................................................................... 52 c. Dry Core Distance Analysis.................................................................................... 95 5 Summary and Conclusions ........................................................................................... 98 4 SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND AIR-SEA INTERACTION CHARACTERISTICS ................................................................................................ 104 1 Introduction................................................................................................................. 104 2 Literature Review........................................................................................................ 104 3 Data and Methods ....................................................................................................... 107 4 Results......................................................................................................................... 112 a. SST Characteristics ............................................................................................... 124 b. Heat Flux Characteristics...................................................................................... 125 c. Intensification and Weakening Stages .................................................................. 133 iv d. Ocean Heat Content .............................................................................................. 142 5 Summary and Conclusions ......................................................................................... 146 5 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS ............................................................................... 149 REFERENCES ........................................................................................................................... 153 APPENDIX: WAVCIS............................................................................................................... 159 VITA........................................................................................................................................... 166 v ABSTRACT Rapid intensity changes of Hurricane Lili in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) were studied in three distinct ways: climatology, satellite remote sensing, and surface meteorological and oceanographic measurements. Each research methodology provided insight about Hurricane Lili’s intensity behavior. A climatology of rapid and explosive intensifications of hurricanes was developed using minimum central pressure observations for the Atlantic tropical cyclone record. Results showed these events were frequent, especially in the GOM. The majority of intensification events occurred ≤ 24 h before landfall, with a third to one-half ≤ 12 h. Lili emerged anomalous as the only hurricane to weaken at a greater rate (+17 hPa over 6 h or +2.83 hPa h-1) than its rapid intensification event rate (-13 hPa over 6 h or -2.16 hPa h-1). GOES-8 satellite water vapor brightness temperature data were investigated using a -24 °C vapor front to delineate a dry air mass west of Lili. Drier air was shown to affect Lili during a rapid weakening phase after the two features were less than 250 km mean or 215 km minimum distance apart. These critical distances are offered as a criterion for a relationship between tropical cyclone weakening and dry air advection. During the time periods where Lili was intensifying or maintaining intensity, this vapor front exhibited more complex signatures of definitive breaks, shape changes, and protrusions.