Variations Aperiodic Extreme Sea Level in Cuba Under the Influence
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An Informed System Development Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity Forecasting
Linköping Studies in Science and Technology Dissertations. No. 1734 An Informed System Development Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity Forecasting by Chandan Roy Department of Computer and Information Science Linköping University SE-581 83 Linköping, Sweden Linköping 2016 Cover image: Hurricane Isabel (2003), NASA, image in public domain. Copyright © 2016 Chandan Roy ISBN: 978-91-7685-854-7 ISSN 0345-7524 Printed by LiU Tryck, Linköping 2015 URL: http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-123198 ii Abstract Introduction: Tropical Cyclones (TCs) inflict considerable damage to life and property every year. A major problem is that residents often hesitate to follow evacuation orders when the early warning messages are perceived as inaccurate or uninformative. The root problem is that providing accurate early forecasts can be difficult, especially in countries with less economic and technical means. Aim: The aim of the thesis is to investigate how cyclone early warning systems can be technically improved. This means, first, identifying problems associated with the current cyclone early warning systems, and second, investigating if biologically based Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) are feasible to solve some of the identified problems. Method: First, for evaluating the efficiency of cyclone early warning systems, Bangladesh was selected as study area, where a questionnaire survey and an in-depth interview were administered. Second, a review of currently operational TC track forecasting techniques was conducted to gain a better understanding of various techniques’ prediction performance, data requirements, and computational resource requirements. Third, a technique using biologically based ANNs was developed to produce TC track and intensity forecasts. -
Aerial Rapid Assessment of Hurricane Damages to Northern Gulf Coastal Habitats
8786 ReportScience Title and the Storms: the USGS Response to the Hurricanes of 2005 Chapter Five: Landscape5 Changes The hurricanes of 2005 greatly changed the landscape of the Gulf Coast. The following articles document the initial damage assessment from coastal Alabama to Texas; the change of 217 mi2 of coastal Louisiana to water after Katrina and Rita; estuarine damage to barrier islands of the central Gulf Coast, especially Dauphin Island, Ala., and the Chandeleur Islands, La.; erosion of beaches of western Louisiana after Rita; and the damages and loss of floodplain forest of the Pearl River Basin. Aerial Rapid Assessment of Hurricane Damages to Northern Gulf Coastal Habitats By Thomas C. Michot, Christopher J. Wells, and Paul C. Chadwick Hurricane Katrina made landfall in southeast Louisiana on August 29, 2005, and Hurricane Rita made landfall in southwest Louisiana on September 24, 2005. Scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) flew aerial surveys to assess damages to natural resources and to lands owned and managed by the U.S. Department of the Interior and other agencies. Flights were made on eight dates from August Introduction 27 through October 4, including one pre-Katrina, three post-Katrina, The USGS National Wetlands and four post-Rita surveys. The Research Center (NWRC) has a geographic area surveyed history of conducting aerial rapid- extended from Galveston, response surveys to assess Tex., to Gulf Shores, hurricane damages along the Ala., and from the Gulf coastal areas of the Gulf of of Mexico shoreline Mexico and Caribbean inland 5–75 mi Sea. Posthurricane (8–121 km). -
Ex-Hurricane Ophelia 16 October 2017
Ex-Hurricane Ophelia 16 October 2017 On 16 October 2017 ex-hurricane Ophelia brought very strong winds to western parts of the UK and Ireland. This date fell on the exact 30th anniversary of the Great Storm of 16 October 1987. Ex-hurricane Ophelia (named by the US National Hurricane Center) was the second storm of the 2017-2018 winter season, following Storm Aileen on 12 to 13 September. The strongest winds were around Irish Sea coasts, particularly west Wales, with gusts of 60 to 70 Kt or higher in exposed coastal locations. Impacts The most severe impacts were across the Republic of Ireland, where three people died from falling trees (still mostly in full leaf at this time of year). There was also significant disruption across western parts of the UK, with power cuts affecting thousands of homes and businesses in Wales and Northern Ireland, and damage reported to a stadium roof in Barrow, Cumbria. Flights from Manchester and Edinburgh to the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland were cancelled, and in Wales some roads and railway lines were closed. Ferry services between Wales and Ireland were also disrupted. Storm Ophelia brought heavy rain and very mild temperatures caused by a southerly airflow drawing air from the Iberian Peninsula. Weather data Ex-hurricane Ophelia moved on a northerly track to the west of Spain and then north along the west coast of Ireland, before sweeping north-eastwards across Scotland. The sequence of analysis charts from 12 UTC 15 to 12 UTC 17 October shows Ophelia approaching and tracking across Ireland and Scotland. -
PNO-II-85-110:On 851119,Hurricane Kate Centered Slightly Inland Over
r ' [ , November 19, 1985 PRELIMINARY NOTIFICATION OF EVENT OR UNUSUAL OCCURRENCE PN0-II-85-110 This preliminary notification constitutes EARLY notice of events of POSSIBLE safety or public interest significance. The information is as initially received without verifi- cation or evaluation, and is basically all that is known by the Region II staff on this date. FACILITY: Florida Power & Light Company Licensee Emergency Classification: Turkey Point Units 1 & 2 X Notification of Unusual Event Docket No's: 50-250/251 Alert Homestead, Florida Site Area Emergency St. Lucie Units 1 & 2 General Emergency Docket No's: 50-335/389 Not Applicable Ft. Pierce, Florida Florida Power Corporation Crystal River Unit 3 Docket No: 50-302 Crystal River, Florida SUBJECT: ACTIONS IN RESPONSE TO HURRICANE KATE As of 8 a.m. (EST) today, Hurricane Kate was centered near latitude 22.7 north and longitude 80.5 west. This position is slightly inland over north central Cuba, about 150 miles south of Key West, Florida. It is moving westward at near 20 miles per hour. On this course, Kate will continue moving over central and western Cuba before entering the Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane warnings have been lifted over mainland Florida except in the middle and lower keys. Gusts in squalls over portions of the mainland are expected to exceed 50 miles per hour with hurricane force winds being limited to the Florida keys. Both Florida Power & Light Company and Florida Power Corporation have been following the course of the storm and are taking appropriate actions. Both Turkey Point units continue to operate at 100 percent power. -
Hurricane & Tropical Storm
5.8 HURRICANE & TROPICAL STORM SECTION 5.8 HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM 5.8.1 HAZARD DESCRIPTION A tropical cyclone is a rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or sub-tropical waters and has a closed low-level circulation. Tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes are all considered tropical cyclones. These storms rotate counterclockwise in the northern hemisphere around the center and are accompanied by heavy rain and strong winds (NOAA, 2013). Almost all tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic basin (which includes the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea) form between June 1 and November 30 (hurricane season). August and September are peak months for hurricane development. The average wind speeds for tropical storms and hurricanes are listed below: . A tropical depression has a maximum sustained wind speeds of 38 miles per hour (mph) or less . A tropical storm has maximum sustained wind speeds of 39 to 73 mph . A hurricane has maximum sustained wind speeds of 74 mph or higher. In the western North Pacific, hurricanes are called typhoons; similar storms in the Indian Ocean and South Pacific Ocean are called cyclones. A major hurricane has maximum sustained wind speeds of 111 mph or higher (NOAA, 2013). Over a two-year period, the United States coastline is struck by an average of three hurricanes, one of which is classified as a major hurricane. Hurricanes, tropical storms, and tropical depressions may pose a threat to life and property. These storms bring heavy rain, storm surge and flooding (NOAA, 2013). The cooler waters off the coast of New Jersey can serve to diminish the energy of storms that have traveled up the eastern seaboard. -
Florida Hurricanes and Tropical Storms
FLORIDA HURRICANES AND TROPICAL STORMS 1871-1995: An Historical Survey Fred Doehring, Iver W. Duedall, and John M. Williams '+wcCopy~~ I~BN 0-912747-08-0 Florida SeaGrant College is supported by award of the Office of Sea Grant, NationalOceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce,grant number NA 36RG-0070, under provisions of the NationalSea Grant College and Programs Act of 1966. This information is published by the Sea Grant Extension Program which functionsas a coinponentof the Florida Cooperative Extension Service, John T. Woeste, Dean, in conducting Cooperative Extensionwork in Agriculture, Home Economics, and Marine Sciences,State of Florida, U.S. Departmentof Agriculture, U.S. Departmentof Commerce, and Boards of County Commissioners, cooperating.Printed and distributed in furtherance af the Actsof Congressof May 8 andJune 14, 1914.The Florida Sea Grant Collegeis an Equal Opportunity-AffirmativeAction employer authorizedto provide research, educational information and other servicesonly to individuals and institutions that function without regardto race,color, sex, age,handicap or nationalorigin. Coverphoto: Hank Brandli & Rob Downey LOANCOPY ONLY Florida Hurricanes and Tropical Storms 1871-1995: An Historical survey Fred Doehring, Iver W. Duedall, and John M. Williams Division of Marine and Environmental Systems, Florida Institute of Technology Melbourne, FL 32901 Technical Paper - 71 June 1994 $5.00 Copies may be obtained from: Florida Sea Grant College Program University of Florida Building 803 P.O. Box 110409 Gainesville, FL 32611-0409 904-392-2801 II Our friend andcolleague, Fred Doehringpictured below, died on January 5, 1993, before this manuscript was completed. Until his death, Fred had spent the last 18 months painstakingly researchingdata for this book. -
Space-Time Assessment of Extreme Precipitation in Cuba Between 1980 and 2019 from Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation Dataset
atmosphere Article Space-Time Assessment of Extreme Precipitation in Cuba between 1980 and 2019 from Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation Dataset Gleisis Alvarez-Socorro 1, José Carlos Fernández-Alvarez 1,2 , Rogert Sorí 2,3 , Albenis Pérez-Alarcón 1,2 , Raquel Nieto 2 and Luis Gimeno 2,* 1 Departamento de Meteorología, Instituto Superior de Tecnologías y Ciencias Aplicadas, Universidad de la Habana, La Habana 10400, Cuba; [email protected] (G.A.-S.); [email protected] (J.C.F.-A.); [email protected] (A.P.-A.) 2 Centro de Investigación Mariña, Universidade de Vigo, Environmental Physics Laboratory (EPhysLab), Campus As Lagoas s/n, 32004 Ourense, Spain; [email protected] (R.S.); [email protected] (R.N.) 3 Instituto Dom Luiz, Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade de Lisboa, 1749-016 Campo Grande, Portugal * Correspondence: [email protected] Abstract: Precipitation extremes such as heavy rainfall and floods are of great interest for climate scientists, particularly for small islands vulnerable to weather phenomena such as hurricanes. In this study, we investigated the spatio-temporal evolution of extreme rainfall over Cuba from 1980 to 2019, separating the dry and rainy periods. In addition, a ranking of extreme precipitation events was performed, which provides the number of events, the area affected, and a ranking of their magnitude Citation: Alvarez-Socorro, G.; by considering the magnitude of anomalies. The analysis was conducted using daily data from the Fernández-Alvarez, J.C.; Sorí, R.; multi-source weighted-ensemble precipitation (MSWEPv2). In determining the extreme precipitation Pérez-Alarcón, A.; Nieto, R.; Gimeno, ranking, the daily extreme precipitation anomaly was calculated with respect to the 95th percentile L. -
FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER by DAY (To 1994) OCTOBER 1 1969
FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER BY DAY (to 1994) OCTOBER 1 1969 - 1730 - Clay Co., Orange Park - Lightning killed a construction worker who was working on a bridge. A subtropical storm spawned one weak tornado and several waterspouts in Franklin Co. in the morning. 2 195l - south Florida - The center of a Tropical Storm crossed Florida from near Fort Myers to Vero Beach. Rainfall totals ranged from eight to 13 inches along the track, but no strong winds occurred near the center. The strong winds of 50 to 60 mph were all in squalls along the lower east coast and Keys, causing minor property damage. Greatest damage was from rains that flooded farms and pasture lands over a broad belt extending from Naples, Fort Myers, and Punta Gorda on the west coast to Stuart, Fort Pierce, and Vero Beach on the east. Early fall crops flooded out in rich Okeechobee farming area. Many cattle had to be moved out of flooded area, and quite a few were lost by drowning or starvation. Roadways damaged and several bridges washed out. 2-4 1994 - northwest Florida - Flood/Coastal Flood - The remnants of Tropical Depression 10 moved from the northeast Gulf of Mexico, across the Florida Panhandle, and into Georgia on the 2nd. High winds produced rough seas along west central and northwest Florida coasts causing minor tidal flooding and beach erosion. Eighteen people had to be rescued from sinking boats in the northeast Gulf of Mexico. Heavy rains in the Florida Big Bend and Panhandle accompanied the system causing extensive flooding to roadways, creeks and low lying areas and minor flooding of rivers. -
Hurricane Sea Surface Inflow Angle and an Observation-Based
NOVEMBER 2012 Z H A N G A N D U H L H O R N 3587 Hurricane Sea Surface Inflow Angle and an Observation-Based Parametric Model JUN A. ZHANG Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, and NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division, Miami, Florida ERIC W. UHLHORN NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division, Miami, Florida (Manuscript received 22 November 2011, in final form 2 May 2012) ABSTRACT This study presents an analysis of near-surface (10 m) inflow angles using wind vector data from over 1600 quality-controlled global positioning system dropwindsondes deployed by aircraft on 187 flights into 18 hurricanes. The mean inflow angle in hurricanes is found to be 222.6862.28 (95% confidence). Composite analysis results indicate little dependence of storm-relative axisymmetric inflow angle on local surface wind speed, and a weak but statistically significant dependence on the radial distance from the storm center. A small, but statistically significant dependence of the axisymmetric inflow angle on storm intensity is also found, especially well outside the eyewall. By compositing observations according to radial and azimuthal location relative to storm motion direction, significant inflow angle asymmetries are found to depend on storm motion speed, although a large amount of unexplained variability remains. Generally, the largest storm- 2 relative inflow angles (,2508) are found in the fastest-moving storms (.8ms 1) at large radii (.8 times the radius of maximum wind) in the right-front storm quadrant, while the smallest inflow angles (.2108) are found in the fastest-moving storms in the left-rear quadrant. -
The Effects of Hurricanes on Birds, with Special Reference to Caribbean Islands
Bird Conservation International (1993) 3:319-349 The effects of hurricanes on birds, with special reference to Caribbean islands JAMES W. WILEY and JOSEPH M. WUNDERLE, JR. Summary Cyclonic storms, variously called typhoons, cyclones, or hurricanes (henceforth, hurricanes), are common in many parts of the world, where their frequent occurrence can have both direct and indirect effects on bird populations. Direct effects of hurricanes include mortality from exposure to hurricane winds, rains, and storm surges, and geo- graphic displacement of individuals by storm winds. Indirect effects become apparent in the storm's aftermath and include loss of food supplies or foraging substrates; loss of nests and nest or roost sites; increased vulnerability to predation; microclimate changes; and increased conflict with humans. The short-term response of bird populations to hurricane damage, before changes in plant succession, includes shifts in diet, foraging sites or habitats, and reproductive changes. Bird populations may show long-term responses to changes in plant succession as second-growth vegetation increases in storm- damaged old-growth forests. The greatest stress of a hurricane to most upland terrestrial bird populations occurs after its passage rather than during its impact. The most important effect of a hurricane is the destruction of vegetation, which secondarily affects wildlife in the storm's after- math. The most vulnerable terrestrial wildlife populations have a diet of nectar, fruit, or seeds; nest, roost, or forage on large old trees; require a closed forest canopy; have special microclimate requirements and/or live in a habitat in which vegetation has a slow recovery rate. Small populations with these traits are at greatest risk to hurricane-induced extinction, particularly if they exist in small isolated habitat fragments. -
Final Program (8.7 MB PDF)
ABSTRACTS 10th INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON WAVE HINDCASTING AND FORECASTING AND COASTAL HAZARD SYMPOSIUM NORTH SHORE, OAHU, HAWAII NOVEMBER 11 – 16, 2007 Published by: U.S. Army Engineer Research & Development Center Vicksburg, MS 39180-6199 10th International Workshop on Wave Hindcasting and Forecasting & Coastal Hazard Symposium North Shore, Hawaii, November 11-16, 2007 FINAL PROGRAM Sunday, November 11 4:00 – 6:00 p.m. Workshop Registration Desk Open 6:00 – 7:30 p.m. Icebreaker 5:00 p.m. Poster Display P1 Blended Global High Resolution Sea Surface Forcing Parameters for Numerical Ocean Modeling; Huai-Min Zhang, Richard W. Reynolds, Lei Shi, & John J. Bates P2 Overview of the Operational Marine Forecast and Warning Products at the Ocean Prediction Center and the National Hurricane Center; Christopher Burr, Hugh Cobb, Mark Willis, Martin C. Nelson, Robert Berg, David Feit, Scott Prosise, and David Mills P3 Corrupted Quickscat Data and Resultant Erroneous Wave Watch III Output. Robert Burke & Patrick Caldwell P4 Prototyping Fine-Resolution Operational Wave Forecasts for the Northwest Atlantic. Will Perrie, Bash Toulany, Peter Smith & Yongcun Hu P5 Breaking of Nonlinear Two-Dimensional Waves in Deep Water. Alexander Babanin, Dmitry Chalikov, Ian R. Young & Ivan Savelyev P6 Estimation of Plunging Surf Spectra from Remotely Measured Infrasound. Joseph Park, Milton Garces & David Fee P7 Interannual Variability & Predictability of Summertime Significant Wave Heights in the Western North Pacific. Wataru Sasaki & Toshiyuki Hibiya P8 Nonlinear Unidirectional & Directional Spectra in Currituck Sound Time Series. Al R. Osborne P9 High Accuracy Ocean Surface Winds from SAR Imagery. Will Perrie & Hui Shen P10 Spectral Density Composite for Aiding Hawaiian Southern Shore Surf Forecasts. -
ANNUAL SUMMARY Atlantic Hurricane Season of 2003
1744 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW VOLUME 133 ANNUAL SUMMARY Atlantic Hurricane Season of 2003 MILES B. LAWRENCE,LIXION A. AVILA,JOHN L. BEVEN,JAMES L. FRANKLIN,RICHARD J. PASCH, AND STACY R. STEWART Tropical Prediction Center, National Hurricane Center, NOAA/NWS, Miami, Florida (Manuscript received 30 April 2004, in final form 8 November 2004) ABSTRACT The 2003 Atlantic hurricane season is described. The season was very active, with 16 tropical storms, 7 of which became hurricanes. There were 49 deaths directly attributed to this year’s tropical cyclones. 1. Introduction hurricane, and Isabel’s category-2 landfall on the Outer There were 16 named tropical cyclones of at least Banks of North Carolina brought hurricane conditions tropical storm strength in the Atlantic basin during to portions of North Carolina and Virginia and record 2003, 7 of which became hurricanes. Table 1 lists these flood levels to the upper Chesapeake Bay. Elsewhere, tropical storms and hurricanes, along with their dates, Erika made landfall on the northeastern Mexico’s Gulf maximum 1-min wind speeds, minimum central sea Coast as a category-1 hurricane, Fabian was the most level pressures, deaths, and U.S. damage. Figure 1 destructive hurricane to hit Bermuda in over 75 yr, and shows the “best tracks” of this season’s storms. Juan was the worst hurricane to hit Halifax, Nova The numbers of tropical storms and hurricanes dur- Scotia, in over 100 yr. ing 2003 are above the long-term (1944–2003) averages This season’s tropical cyclones took 49 lives in the of 10 named storms, of which 6 become hurricanes.